This is not the correct question. The correct question is
Should I take a chance on dying or becoming disabled for the rest of my life because of bad information? https://t.co/mqudB9a58g
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) January 6, 2022
NEW: Covid hospitalizations have soared — but there’s no national data on how many are “incidental.”
So we talked to hospital leaders and workers in 18 states to assemble a picture.
Our takeaway: it’s a tale of two variants. With @FenitN @dtkeating.
https://t.co/aWEaFM0z0w— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) January 6, 2022
"In Los Angeles, where the omicron variant reigns, roughly 2/3rds of covid patients in the county’s public hospitals were admitted for other causes. In Springfield, Mo., where the delta variant remains a threat, coronavirus is the cause for 81% of covid hospitalizations." https://t.co/RlSfZ5PE1E
— Noah Shachtman (@NoahShachtman) January 6, 2022
Link to Johns Hopkins tracker:
The rate of #SARSCoV2 positivity in PCR testing is now the highest in the USA that has been seen at any time in this #pandemic — 25%.
— Positivity rates in USA https://t.co/YANdlrZWK6 pic.twitter.com/XjPjKtNKEy— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 6, 2022
? SCOOP: White House, USPS finalizing plans to ship coronavirus test kits to U.S. households as soon as next weekhttps://t.co/25BXW9tZoD
— Jacob Bogage (@jacobbogage) January 7, 2022
======
The world has surpassed 300M known coronavirus cases. It took more than a year to record the 1st 100M coronavirus cases & half that time to tally the next 100M. The 3rd 100M came even faster, in barely 5 months —but 300M still likely an undercount https://t.co/N7DFiJxBLw pic.twitter.com/tA2eZQ2VGA
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 7, 2022
BREAKING: The World Health Organization says a record 9.5 million cases of COVID-19 were tallied around the world over the last week. At the same time, deaths fell, with 41,178 recorded last week compared to 44,680 the week before. https://t.co/kOkRs429wo
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 6, 2022
JUST IN:
China's southeast business center #Shenzhen reports 2 asymptomatic local-transmitted cases today, a couple.
The municipal government of Shenzhen advises residents not to leave Shenzhen if not necessary.
The regulations for indoor activities are also tightened.— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) January 7, 2022
The messy cost of China's Covid lockdown in Xi'an https://t.co/XEFX1AeWa0
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 6, 2022
The BBC is maybe a little too pleased to highlight another country’s covid problems…
… Two years on, after numerous strict lockdowns across China, some are asking how such mismanagement and lack of planning can still be happening – and if authorities have learnt anything at all.
“There has never been any serious discussion on what lessons we have learnt from Wuhan, there has been no debate. The narrative has just been about the success of the Chinese model versus the ineffectiveness seen in Western democracies,” Professor Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow in global health with the Council of Foreign Relations, told the BBC.
The only thing officials have learnt would be dealing with an outbreak with a blunt zero Covid strategy, he added.
China’s top-down policymaking has meant that when local officials are assigned broad targets, “they often have no alternatives but to rely on heavy-handed, one size fits all approaches in getting things done”, as seen in the extreme measures seen in Xi’an.
This has resulted in “overreaction or overshooting… in dealing with even a small number of cases”…
Chinese government on a local level is decentralised, and many local officials have been “set very ambitious goals of having zero Covid, but get very little central government resources” and not much power to deal with an outbreak when it arises, points out Professor Donald Low, an expert in Chinese governance with the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
This has meant that “on the one hand, local officials cannot singlehandedly lock down a district, but on the other, they are required to organise food delivery to more than a million residents at short notice,” wrote China studies professor Christian Goebel of the University of Vienna in an online analysis.…
But the larger problem is the diminishing returns of the zero Covid policy.
Experts warn that as Covid evolves and more transmissible variants emerge, it could lead to increasingly harsh measures to maintain the same level of suppression.
Though zero Covid still has widespread support, people’s patience will only be stretched thinner…
China warns hospitals against rejecting patients over COVID curbs as cases decline https://t.co/oXtAFmZesK pic.twitter.com/YEKBxE0qNt
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 7, 2022
@HuXijin_huanqiu @GlobalTimes @CGTNOfficial https://t.co/eHGCJzosIX
— Paul Mooney 慕亦仁 (@pjmooney) January 6, 2022
BREAKING: India reports more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases so far today, up 700% in one week
— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) January 6, 2022
India's COVID-19 cases set for new highs as Omicron spreads https://t.co/dwgUrlxfY0 pic.twitter.com/JKaKgeP34t
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 7, 2022
India’s daily COVID-19 cases jumped to 117,100 on Friday, a five-fold increase in a week and on course to overtake its previous infection peak as the fast-spreading Omicron variant replaces Delta in cities.
Government officials have privately said they are working under the assumption that daily infections will surpass the record of more than 414,000 set in May, given what has happened in countries such as the United States where daily cases recently rose past 1 million…
Nearly 70% Indians had been exposed to the coronavirus by the middle of last year, while an almost equal proportion of adults have been fully vaccinated as of this week.
Health officials in the capital, New Delhi, and the state of Maharashtra, home to the city of Mumbai, which together account for the bulk of new cases, have said hospitals and testing infrastructure have yet to come under pressure as many people are recovering quickly at home.
In Mumbai, about quarter of all tests are positive but fewer than a fifth of those who have contracted the virus have needed hospitalisation, Maharashtra Health Minister Rajesh Tope told reporters…
Delhi, where daily cases have risen by more than five times in a week, goes into a 55-hour lockdown from Friday night to Monday morning.
Authorities have also imposed a night curfew on weekdays, closed schools, and ordered most shops to open only on alternate days when there is no curfew.
India’s COVID-19 deaths rose by 302 on Friday, taking the total to 483,178. Total infections stand at 35.23 million, only fewer that the U.S. tally of about 58 million.
Omicron: 13 passengers on Italy-India flight escape quarantine https://t.co/7faGvzxIlo
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 7, 2022
Japan to declare COVID-19 curbs in 3 regions hosting U.S. bases https://t.co/CdMk4bmLlx pic.twitter.com/IFQVHRmlaS
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 7, 2022
Thailand has announced it is tightening some entry restrictions while expanding its “sandbox” quarantine program, and has urged people to follow social distancing and mask rules to control the spread of COVID-19 fueled by the omicron variant. https://t.co/uSFUAzcX6T
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 7, 2022
Sri Lankan health authorities have begun vaccinating children aged 12 to 15, as the island nation’s top medical specialists warned of a wave of COVID-19 infections in the coming weeks driven by the omicron variant. https://t.co/wEpS5bkUqA
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 7, 2022
Australia’s most populous state has reinstated some restrictions and suspended elective surgeries as COVID-19 cases surged to another record. https://t.co/YhfbB6bjdY
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 7, 2022
Sydney Omicron outbreak could peak by late January, modelling shows https://t.co/lrfEtm3JQM pic.twitter.com/t4oGSQK909
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 7, 2022
Djokovic stay highlights refugee concerns at Melbourne detention hotel https://t.co/Wiu3Ne4k2u
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 7, 2022
Russia on Friday confirmed 16,735 Covid-19 infections and 787 deathshttps://t.co/BPVaWkVw9z
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) January 7, 2022
Omicron spike in most vaccinated German state heralds nationwide surge https://t.co/JEpx7P4KxZ pic.twitter.com/hSzfawsofS
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 7, 2022
France's current COVID wave could peak in around 10 days time – national vaccine chief https://t.co/ihUS1ZDJCR pic.twitter.com/XQ6u2eEgf5
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 7, 2022
>1 in 20 people in the UK have Covid, according to official health data. An estimated 3.7M people reported w/ the virus, up from 2.3M the previous week, as #OmicronVariant surges across the country. Models below: spike protein (foreground) & coronavirus https://t.co/cgaofkII5Q
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 7, 2022
Omicron is immune evading and ~10% of new COVID-19 infections are in people previously infected.
Of note is the uptick in reinfection rate in 80+. More data is needed to understand whether reinfections are milder. pic.twitter.com/VKPAfuA3nO
— Meaghan Kall (@kallmemeg) January 6, 2022
Chile is set to become the first country in Latin America, and one of the first in the world, to offer a fourth shot of the COVID-19 vaccine, as the highly transmissible Omicron variant is spreading worldwide https://t.co/DBsJLXDwak pic.twitter.com/FAFr1AWuml
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 7, 2022
======
Is #Omicron slipping past #Covid rapid antigen tests? @matthewherper digs in. https://t.co/kRu70JcyBL
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) January 6, 2022
This is a reminder that a THREE-vaccine regimen is highly protective against HOSPITALIZATION, whereas high quality MASKS, such as KN95s are highly protective against INFECTION. Both are required to protect against COVID.
— Cleavon MD ? (@Cleavon_MD) January 7, 2022
The ones listed below in the thread by @DrEricDing are also high quality! He has an in-depth thread on high filtration grade masks. https://t.co/gwwiCcIrqT
— Cleavon MD ? (@Cleavon_MD) January 7, 2022
======
This is just heartbreaking:
"I can't afford to have a day off and not get paid for it," Abby, another nurse at St. Joseph East who asked to omit her last name, told Insider. "But I don't want to get someone sick. I'd never forgive myself."https://t.co/cqwLLQjVK5
— Andrew Dunn (@AndrewE_Dunn) January 6, 2022
Yes, #Omicron seems a less severe disease-agent for most people. BUT, it is so contagious, & reproduces so rapidly in the upper airways, that infections skyrocket. So even if <1% of cases lead to pneumonia, ICUs & hospitals fill fast. Here's the #COVID19 hospital sitn in NYC. pic.twitter.com/nhAqRRgzuv
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 6, 2022
A surge in coronavirus cases has shut down California schools and sidelined thousands of police, firefighters and health care workers but officials are hoping it will be short-lived. https://t.co/pBFNDKCthd
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 7, 2022
W. Virginia's governor is pushing for a 4th shot. Jim Justice—a Republican—says he wants to offer 4th doses to people 50 & ↑ and to essential workers, which would make W. Va the 1st state to do so. An Israeli study shows a 5-fold antibody ↑ w/ a 4th shot https://t.co/qMl7isOdee pic.twitter.com/FHXcw3QCVq
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 7, 2022
To be fair, you can’t cure anthrax with ivermectin, either:
A conspiracy theorist and multilevel marketer who got covid at a conspiracy theory conference, attendees of which were convinced they’d been attacked with anthrax, has died of covid after treating it with ivermectin: https://t.co/JQyvIvNzOu
— Tim Marchman (@timmarchman) January 6, 2022
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
The Monroe County website:
There were 1662 new laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 on 1/6/22.
There were 1262 new positive COVID home tests reported on 1/6/22.
The NYSDOH website: 2048 new cases
Hospitalizations as of 1/4:
136 people hospitalized, 102 are unvaxed (75%)
29 are in the ICU, 25 are unvaxed
22 are intubated, 19 are unvaxed
New Deal democrat
There are the first signs that the Omicron wave in the US may be approaching its peak. In the last 2 days, cases have increased at a significantly lower rate than in the past several weeks. Among the first hardest hit jurisdictions, NY, NJ, and PR are flat to only slowly rising. HI is still rising at the same rate.
Internationally the UK also has been flat the last few days, while Portugal (with 89% of the population vaccinated), Denmark, and Canada are still rising. South Africa is flat. Deaths increased sharply in Canada, and also in South Africa, which had a big data dump.
Hospitalizations, which lag cases by about 10 days, are still sharply rising and now are only about 6,000, or 5%, below their previous all time peak from one year ago. ICU admissions are rising at a slower rate, and so far deaths have barely increased at all, at 1256.
That the big decoupling with Omicron appears to be deaths rather than hospitalizations, at least in the US, comes from John Burn-Murdoch, who has prepared graphs of cases, hospitalizations, and patients in ICU for the US and each State:
https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1479218302954221570
All graphs are normed to 100% of peak from one year ago. They clearly show hospitalizations have risen at nearly the same rate as cases, while ICU admissions have not, so far.
NorthLeft12
Ontario is like most other areas around the world, restrictions galore, cases through the roof, but I feel like there is some room for optimism.
Did a grocery run yesterday and spent over $300 (very high for my wife and I) to restock the fridge and freezer. Trying to make sure we have a two week supply in case of infection. Not sure how we would catch it as we barely get out of the house and only interact with people outside…at a distance (+ ten feet minimum).
Best of luck to all in this new year.
NotMax
New year brings new numbers.
On the slim chance someone who visits here happens to know or to run into her, could you please tell Tammy three things?
1) You’re a bloomin’ idiot.
2) You’ve purposefully and deliberately made yourself a hazard to the community at large.
3) You’re a bloomin’ idiot.
.
Inside base call.
rikyrah
Every staff member got their own 30 day supply box.of K95 masks yesterday afternoon. We have always had to mask up.. Now, while at work, we have to K95 mask up
satby
I’m hearing a lot of people in my area have symptoms (like mine) and almost all have tested negative. The rapid tests aren’t picking Omicron up, and it’s nearly impossible to schedule a PCR test now, at least in time for it to be useful. I’m feeling much better and never had a fever, lost my sense of smell, difficulty breathing, etc. so I may have had something else; but I won’t be able to confirm it either way. Frustrating.
rikyrah
@satby:
??????
satby
@rikyrah: Thanks sweetie, but I’m fine. Whatever I had presented as the most vicious cold ever, but that was it.
lowtechcyclist
Who knew you could treat anthrax with ivermectin? Guess it’s going to become an all-purpose quack remedy. They’ll probably try to treat cancer with it next.
This really IS heartbreaking. Fuck St. Joseph East for creating this awful dilemma for its nurses (I assume the doctors have no trouble affording a day off without pay), and fuck all the people who refuse to get vaccinated for creating the situation where a hospital might think such a measure might be necessary.
I’ve had it with all those fuckers. They are traitors to the human race.
In one rather important way, it doesn’t matter whether they were hospitalized for Covid or for something else. Health care workers can catch Covid from them, either way.
YY_Sima Qian
On 1/6 China reported 116 new domestic confirmed (21 previously asymptomatic) & 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Shaanxi Province reported 57 new domestic confirmed cases. 39 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There are currently 1824 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Yuncheng in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case, a person arrived from Xi’an in Shaanxi.
At Guangdong Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 18 active domestic confirmed (all at Dongguan) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Foshan) cases in the province.
At Guangxi “Autonomous” Region there currently are 19 active domestic confirmed (all at Dongxing in Fangchenggang) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Chongzuo) cases in the province. 1 village at Fangchenggang remains at High Risk.
At Hulun Buir in Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (all at Manzhouli).
Shanghai Municipality reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all traced close contact of previously reported domestic asymptomatic cases, already under centralized quarantine since 1/3 or 1/4. There currently are 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Jiangsu Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Nanjing) & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all at Wuxi) in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic). 2 domestic confirmed cases are reported by Beilun District in Ningbo, both traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, & 1 is the previously asymptomatic case reported by Jinhua. 104 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 61 active domestic confirmed cases (spread across Shaoxing, Ningbo, Hangzhou & Jinhua) in the province. A factory & a village at Jinhua have been elevated to Medium Risk. A factory & a village at Beilun District in Ningbo remain at Medium Risk.
At Xiamen in Fujian Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining, a quarantine hotel worker.
At Chongqing Municipality there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.
Henan Province reported 56 new domestic confirmed cases (20 previously asymptomatic). 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 145 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases.
At Yunnan Province 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed (8 at Dehong Prefecture & 5 at Kunming) & 8 active domestic asymptomatic (6 at Dehong Prefecture & 2 at Sipsongpanna Prefecture) cases in the province. The MediumRisk residential compound at Kunming has been re-designated to Low Risk.
At Tongren in Guizhou Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, a person who returned from Jinghong, Sipsongpanna Prefecture in Yunnan.
Imported Cases
On 1/6, China reported 58 new imported confirmed cases (5 previously asymptomatic), 42 imported asymptomatic cases, 6 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 97 confirmed cases recovered (29 imported), 16 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (all imported) & 26 were reclassified as confirmed cases (5 imported), & 2,580 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,359 active confirmed cases in the country (978 imported), 30 in serious condition (3 imported), 632 active asymptomatic cases (604 imported), 2 suspect cases (both imported). 42,512 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 1/6, 2,879.993M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 7.976M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 1/7, Hong Kong reported 33 new positive cases, 26 imported & 7 domestic (all traced close contacts).
debbie
@lowtechcyclist:
Same with teachers. I’m not hearing teachers’ safety even mentioned in all the talk about keeping schools opened. It’s not that I minimize the risks of kids having to stay at home or parents’ employment situations, but what about the teachers?
Cermet
Why would W.VA want to require/authorize a fourth shoot when they are way behind on just getting one, much less two vaccinations for the average person in the State?
Argiope
@satby: I had the world’s most awful cold in August—lasted forever, lost smell and taste for a few days, and ended up with a ruptured eardrum. Tested negative for COVID twice, and two immediate family members who had symptoms before me (though milder) also tested negative once each —all CVS or medical office tests including a PCR. I assume now that it wasn’t COVID, but it was plenty rotten. Much worse than my confirmed breakthrough COVID case last week, by far. Hope you are completely well quickly!
lowtechcyclist
@debbie:
Indeed. And as we know, there’s not an army of substitutes available these days, waiting to fill in for sick teachers. If too many teachers get sick (or bus drivers for that matter), they’re going to have to close schools whether they want to or not.
Another Scott
The BBC reports I’ve seen more often than not deliberately get the causality backwards. The lockdowns aren’t the cause, they’re the effect.
But they occasionally do glance behind the wizard’s curtain.
Cheers,
Scott.
Mousebumples
I tried emailing this link to Anne Laurie yesterday, but i wasn’t sure how to format the space in her name, so I might have goofed something up.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/23/health/covid-19-vaccine-younger-children/index.html
Another article I found about the Moderna vaccine study in kids –
https://www.wsaw.com/2021/12/30/moderna-vaccine-trial-young-children-nears-finish-line/
satby
@Argiope: Thanks! Sounds a lot like whatever crud I have. If a co-worker hadn’t tested positive I wouldn’t have worried it was covid, just a nasty cold.
Soprano2
I wonder if Steve Edwards has looked at our Covid dashboard lately. On the case graph I see the straight up line that indicates Omicron is definitely in Springfield. Our 7-day average of cases is already as high as it ever was during the summer Delta wave. Perhaps they aren’t seeing it in the hospitals much yet. I had a nurse at Jazzercize tell me yesterday that they’re being told they can only take off if they have bad symptoms, and that the hospital is quietly hiring back some unvaccinated people because they are so short of workers. I say, put the unvaccinated with only Covid (not the incidental cases) in a tent in the parking lot and let their relatives treat them with whatever quack remedy they think works this week, since they don’t believe in the vaccines or medical science. I heard a story about “compassion fatigue” among health care workers on Morning Edition today, and all I could think was “you’re just now seeing this? I’ve felt this way for months now!”
sdhays
@Mousebumples: Oh, that’s great news! I hope it proves effective.
Ken
Is that Ash Paul quoted by Cheryl at the top really making the “get sick to avoid getting sick” argument? In the Atlantic?
Mousebumples
@sdhays: as a mother of an unvaccinated 2 year old, I’m hopeful too! ?
Just One More Canuck
@NorthLeft12: Dougie only acts when he is absolutely forced to do so, and even then, only does the least he thinks he can possibly get away with. The cabinet had all the data regarding how Omicron was going to rip through the province on December 16, yet sat on it until the 30th, when they announced school reopening would be delayed by two days(!!) and then reversed course three days later. He and his cabinet are either unwilling or too incompetent to do the right thing, instead saving money for a tax cut in the upcoming budget, just in time for the election in June.
Who would have guessed that Rob was the smart one in the family
YY_Sima Qian
I do get a bit of cognitive dissonance reading western MSMs on the one hand describing the travails around of the world as 1st Delta then Omicron waves washes over the planet, & on the other hand concern trolling about China’s “Dynamic Zero COVID” strategy. With viral spread, it is either exponential growth or exponential decay, there is no middle ground. The exception that proves the rule is South Korea, which has managed to constantly modulate its NPI measures (in conjunction w/ vaccination since middle of 202), neither aiming for “Zero COVID” nor allowing it to explode (which is an amazing feat). Even so, in face of Delta South Korea’s daily incidence rates steadily grew from double digits in the early part of the year, to triple digits, then hovering at mid- to high quadruple digits since Q3, with hospitals stressed (though not collapsed) for months now, & the population has had to deal with some form of restrictions or another for 20 mos.
Western MSMs has been question China’s “Dynamic Zero COVID” strategy since mid-2020, when incidence rate had receded in Europe & people though the huge spring wave gave a large portion of the population some level of immunity (as opposed to China). Then Alpha showed up. In early 2021 Western MSMs again started to question China’s strategy, optimistically opining that such “brutish” methods were no longer necessary as vaccines became available, & how the rest of the world would return to normality while China became increasingly isolated. Then Delta showed up before vaccination had reached high levels (& raising the bar needed for herd immunity). Throughout the summer & the fall Western MSMs again questioned China’s strategy, even as China repeatedly contained & eliminated Delta outbreaks. As SE Asia was inundated by Delta, leading to severe disruption in supply chain, China holding on as last mass production base standing (& manufacturing safe haven of last resort) meant the holiday season in the West in 2021 was not as threadbare as it otherwise could have been (despite the bottlenecks in transportation & escalating raw materials costs). Western MSM continued to question China’s strategy even as Omicron shows up, w/ its ultra-transmissivity & immunity escape.
It is more than fair to focus on the failures of Xi’an municipal & Shaanxi provincial authorities in their execution of the lock down in Xi’an. Some of the mistakes is befuddling & exasperating, repeating scenes from Wuhan in early Feb. 2020, mistakes that subsequent cities that entered equally tough lock downs (Ürumqi, Shijiazhuang, Dalian, Zhangjiajie, etc.) largely seemed to have avoided, cities less wealthy and w/ less resources than Xi’an. While the individual cases being highlighted in international (& domestic) media do not necessarily represent the whole, it is nevertheless clear that the municipal authorities (at least some of the time) fail in its management & coordination across departments & districts, & low level bureaucrats & frontline workers (at least some of the time) act more to cover their rears, leading to Kafka-esque predicaments for the unfortunately people caught up in tragic circumstances. I see it as problems in execution, not problems of strategy.
If China abandons its current strategy, leading to the inevitable “exit wave” that will greatly stress medical services (possibly collapse in the low tier cities & rural areas) & tens if not hundreds of thousands of deaths, what would the coverage in Western MSMs be then? How many new variants might show up? If China goes around the world buying up billions of mRNA doses for its population, reducing availability for Western countries & leaving none for the Global South, what would the coverage in Western MSMs be then?
Omicron may well make China’s strategy untenable, but China has to try & fail 1st, rather than just give up. No?
YY_Sima Qian
I had a business trip planned to Shenzhen next week. It is now up in the air. We shall see how things develop over the weekend. The fact that the 1st of 2 cases was found via regular batch screening, does not work in a “high risk” occupation, w/o source of infection identified yet, suggests that a cluster has already developed.
MomSense
Welp older two kids have tested positive. Both are boosted and without symptoms. Youngest is home today because of a snow storm but we got an email yesterday about a close contact at school so he is going to test today. I’m the only person in the office today because of the snow storm so I’m not wearing a mask atm but I’ll mask up if I go anywhere and test when I get home.
Nicole
@satby: It’s so hard to tell; I think the tests, while pretty good, still aren’t as good as they’ll be in a few years. I caught Covid December of 2020, and tested negative 4 times on PCR tests, from 3 different labs, in two different states, before I finally came up positive on the 5th test… at which point I was feeling better, but the PCR also can’t tell the difference between live and dead virus. I tested positive for antibodies two months later (right before I got my 1st shot) so I definitely had it.
It sounds like you did the right thing and behaved as though you had Covid, which means, whatever it was you had, you broke the chain of transmission, and at this point, that’s the most important thing we can do. I’m glad you’re feeling better!
daveNYC
Thing with the first tweet is that I think omicron has broken a lot of people. The general plan, for the non-Nurgle worshipping portion of the population, was to hang in there and get the vaccinations that would, if not allow everything to get back to normal, at least put a stop to the insane spikes and high stress situations.
Except we ended up with omicron. A variant that is insanely contagious, doesn’t seem to care a whole lot if you’ve been vaccinated as far as infection goes (even though the vaccines do help you weather it better), and there’s still the Nurgle cultists running around licking doorknobs and saying everything is a hoax.
Not good at all.
Taken4Granite
@Ken: The Ash Paul tweet is rather opaque, but I don’t think he’s the author of the Atlantic piece in question (that would be the Katherine J. Wu referenced in his tweet). Having not read the article, I can’t tell whether Ms. Wu makes that argument or whether Mr. Paul is mischaracterizing the article in order to make that argument.
I also have to wonder, based on the surname, if Ash Paul is related to the junior Senator from Kentucky. There are other ways he might have risen to prominence, but nepotism would be my first guess.
Sloane Ranger
Hi all. Good news. I got my Day 2 PCR test result today and I’m negative. This is a relief as there was a COVID outbreak on my cruise ship and, although we were all tested once it was confirmed and I was negative, the test was RLF so I was a bit worried in case it was a false negative. According to the Captain it was the worst outbreak they’d had since they re-started cruising but, I must say, I was really impressed with the ship’s response. They had kept cabins on the starboard side of one deck free and anyone who tested positive or who had been in contact with them were moved there. The area was closed off with a massive door with a sign saying “Quarantine Area. Keep out”. They had to close down the shops, the Spa, the Speciality restaurants and the Guest Services desk and there were some last minute substitutions in the entertainment on offer, due to the number of staff who were confirmed positive or who had been in close contact with them, but most events went on. All of us on my table for dinner offered to clean our own cabins to take some pressure off the remaining staff but we were politely told to go away and play!
Anyway, on to yesterday’s numbers from the UK where we had 179,756 new cases. This is an increase of 29.3% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,
England – 152,306
Northern Ireland – 6877
Scotland – 11,360
Wales – 9213.
Deaths – There were 231 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. The rolling 7-day average is up by 56.1%. 203 deaths were in England, 4 in Northern Ireland, 18 in Scotland and 6 in Wales.
Testing – 2,031,729 tests took place on Wednesday, 5th. The rolling 7-day average is up by 14%. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs was 843,647.
Hospitalisations – There were 17,988 people in hospital and 875 on ventilators on Wednesday, 5th. As of 2nd January the percentage increase in hospital admissions over the week before was 64.7%.
Vaccinations – As of Wednesday, 5th, 51,874,548 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 47,565,340 had had 2 and 34,834,288 had had a 3rd shot/booster. In percentage terms, this means that 90.2% of all UK residents aged 12+ had had 1 shot by that date, 82.7% had had 2 and 60.6% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
Percysowner
@satby:
In my neck of the woods, if you go through your doctor you can get a PCR test with results in 24 hours. You have to have symptoms, but here they have access to quick reliable tests that you can’t get by scheduling on your own.
Scout211
Youngest daughter, a school teacher told me this morning that their district is down 40 bus drivers right now. ? Routes are canceled and parents are struggling with transporting their kids to school (she has two in school and one had their bus route canceled). It’s a mess right now and the district does not have enough subs to cover teachers who are out sick.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for these thoughts. China has become a general focus of resentment here in the U.S. Maybe of envy with regard to the pandemic, too; a “sour grapes” attitude.
Another Scott
@Scout211: A week or so ago I saw several signs for school bus driver jobs starting at $22.91/hour with $3000 signing bonus.
Who was it, Napoleon?, who said that an army travels on its stomach? Logistics are vitally important and still unappreciated. Schools can’t stay open if staff is out sick. We’re not going to get through this until we crush community spread – and it’s been the case from the beginning. The GQP wants us to forget that.
Hang in there, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@NotMax:
I haven’t yet used “You’re gullible and ignorant”, but have come close a few times in the last week.
(Followed maybe with something like “I’m not interested in the pro-disease propaganda that you’re huffing”.)
Bill Arnold
This instructional video is very good:
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: That is great news.
WaterGirl
@debbie: Teachers?
EssentialExpendable workers.This makes me so angry.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: If a front-pager has a space in their nym, they get a hyphen in their email address.
So front-pager Sally Sue would be sally-sue at balloon-juice.com
Fair Economist
Flu Report for 12/26/21-1/1/22 Positivity dropped sharply from 6.2% to 3.8%. However, this is mostly from increased testing, as lab confirmed cases increased a touch from last week, from 4,393 to 4,413, with a whopping 4,054 cases added to previous weeks. Hospital admissions still climbing, from 1,828 to 2,615. H3N2 continues its unprecedented dominance, 98.1% of all typed cases and every single one of the subtyped A cases.
Overall, flu is probably roughly at its peak.The Omicron epidemic is presumably distorting the testing numbers, by driving in many COVID cases, some of whom get tested for flu. Hospitalizations still increasing because of delays between diagnosis and hospitalization, and because the epidemic is shifting from younger people to older people (this is common as a flu epidemic matures).
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Do you have urls for favorite time-series charts for the top level numbers for China?
Reported new cases in China appear to be roughly (noisily) plateaued at very low levels relative to almost all other countries, since ~26 Dec 2021.
The Western media continues to be flabbergasted that China is trying to minimize COVID-19 deaths and long term morbidity. (The later is being discounted to an insane level in many countries.) It’s interesting to see how mentally beholden many influential people are to their Bayesian priors.
ETA Ah didn’t see your comment at #23. Agreed.
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: The Western Media is heavily influenced by denialists who don’t want peons to get time off and don’t want things to look good under a Democratic President. Many want COVID to run rampant. Whatever flaws there may have been in the Xi’an lockdown, locking down two cities is far less harmful to the economy than having the entire country get sick – never mind the health benefits. Overall, China has had far less economic impact from COVID than almost any Western Country, and it’s because of the Zero COVID strategy.
In the future, I expect China will have economic problems from popping its real estate bubble, and that Western media will often try to blame it on Zero COVID even though Zero COVID actually helped the Chinese economy. They aren’t honest analysts.
laura
Keeping a candle in the window for Amir Khalid. Get well soon.
Fair Economist
@daveNYC: I don’t feel broken by Omicron, because this is what I expected when the pandemic started. I was not expecting the vaccines to be any better than the flu vaccine, and so I figured even once we were vaccinated we’d get recurrent high-mortality waves that would have to be handled with public health measures. Then the vaccines came out and they were AWESOME, but even so when Omicron came out things just reverted to somewhat better than I had originally anticipated (because the vaccine is still really good at keeping people alive).
So I’ve gotten an elastomeric N95 mask and wear it when I go out. No communal eating or drinking indoors. Really, it’s not bad. I feel more limited by my moderate knee problems than my COVID precautions.
Bill Arnold
@Fair Economist:
Any links to analyses making this comparison?
J R in WV
I see that our WV Governor Big Jim Justice wants authority to offer 4th vaccination shots to people over 50 y o and essential workers. He would get as much benefit from ordering state-wide mask wearing and providing n95 masks to the population as from offering shots that ~50% of the population won’t take.
We have a conservative Christian neighbor family, no vaccinations, all 4 of them husband, wife, two sons, got Covid, Husband was sickest. Still no vaccinations, “Now we’re all immune!” Sure you are Tommy, sure you are. They are great neighbors, but… crazy also too.
Very quiet today with a foot of new snow causing hush. Were expecting delivery of some sheets today, not going to happen until Monday at the earliest. Fed Ex…
Fair Economist
@Bill Arnold: Here’s a link from the Congressional Research Service. Table is on page 6. China had only one quarter of negative growth, fully recovered by the next quarter.
ant
@YY_Sima Qian: re: China
It occurs to me that China may be side-stepping a great deal of costs related to long-Covid in the future. It’s a gamble, I realize, but those costs are unknown now for the rest of us.
I’m rather envious, frankly, that the Chinese has a government that thinks and plans for the future. We are really really bad at this in the US.
Origuy
I think I may have mentioned this before. A lot of people in my Scottish country dance group are using masks from airgami.com. They are very breathable and don’t fog up my glasses as much. The website claims to have passed N95 certification. They are also used by singers. When I was dancing in them, I felt like I had more energy because I was getting more air. Unfortunately, we have suspended classes and dances with the Omicron surge.
Lacuna Synecdoche
Vice.com via Anne Laurie # Top:
I’m starting to feel like every time one of these right-wing anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers dies, the world’s collective average IQ goes up a notch.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Worldometer.com has time series charts for every country since the beginning.
For China, the trends in top line numbers is not all that helpful. It appears to be plateauing noisily because while the Xi’an outbreak is clearly trending down, there are new outbreaks at Zhengzhou & Xuchang keeping the overall number at the same level. If you track each outbreak individually, they follow the expected pattern: rapid increase due to prior cryptic community transmission pre-detection as well as repeated mass screenings capturing the cases in the communities, then reaching inflection ~ 1 – 2 week after imposition of NPI measures, followed by a slower drop as people w/ longer incubation periods test positive while under quarantine (or due to low level cross-infection at quarantine hotels, something the authorities rarely acknowledge). The leading indicator of an outbreak being contained is the percentage of cases being found from quarantine versus mass screening (& whether mass screening in hot spot zones tested daily or other areas under less intense scrutiny, latter being the worse case).
China has also yet to face an Omicron outbreak.
J R in WV
@J R in WV:
Left out the important detail that mask wearing in WV is no longer common at all… anywhere but hospitals, etc. In Kroger’s I doubt more than around 30% are wearing masks. Tragic !!
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: That kind of coverage is already happening. Chinese economy has been slowing in H2 2021 (cushioned by roaring exports), largely due to the deliberate deleveraging campaign in the real estate sector, Western MSMs are now attributing the slow down to “Zero COVID”, never mind the fact that there were outbreaks scattered across China throughout the year that require the usual suite of NPIs to contain & eliminate.
The deflation (that is the plan) of the real estate sector will present headwind to Chinese growth &, possibly more importantly, local government finances for several years. Analogous to the reforms of State Own Enterprises suppressed growth in the late 90s. And that is the optimistic scenario, assuming China finds alternative engines of growth to replace real estate. The Chinese government is pinning hopes on dominating New Energy & other sectors associated w/ the 4th Industrial Revolution.
YY_Sima Qian
@ant: If Omicron ultimately washed over the Chinese populus, then the prior gains would be undermined. One has to hope that the high vaccination rate & “milder” variant minimizes the issue for China.
I do think the short but intense lock downs followed by complete domestic re-opening has been much better for the mental health of the population (not least HCWs) & learning/development of schoolchildren. Nowhere in China has had to do remote learning for more a semester.