Fauci says Omicron likely to peak in U.S. by end-January https://t.co/ijHibg3Okc pic.twitter.com/heAya1XDKy
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 30, 2021
Leaders urge Americans to cancel New Year’s plans: "Omicron and delta are coming to your party" https://t.co/wxA46lnuuz
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) December 29, 2021
More than a year after the vaccine was rolled out, new cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. have soared to the highest level on record at over 265,000 per day on average.https://t.co/VsGcBG1sWH
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 29, 2021
In @WhiteHouse @CDCDirector says:
– 60% ^ in new #COVID19 cases in 1 week, averaging 240K cases/day
– 14% ^ in hospitalizations in 1 week
– but 7% decrease in deaths
– peak contagiousness is 1-2 dys post-infect., pre-symptomatic
– unclear if home tests ID infectiousness to others— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 29, 2021
Hundreds of flights are being cancelled as the omicron variant continues to create havoc both for travelers and for airlines trying to cobble together flight crews as infections rise among pilots and flight crews. https://t.co/u53KQVJ6C6
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 29, 2021
2) Operationally, who would enforce it? The desk attendants? TSA? A special Vaccine Force?
3) There is already some bad behavior in airports. A vaccine mandate would likely bring in demonstrators as well.
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) December 30, 2021
I would like many more vaccine mandates, including for flying. But I think that the first, that some state governments are actively abetting the pandemic, is the killer. I'd be glad to be proved wrong.
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) December 30, 2021
======
With global cases at a record high, the WHO is warning of a coronavirus tsunami. "Delta and Omicron are now twin threats," said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director-general. The agency fears healthcare systems may be overwhelmed worldwide https://t.co/QZ4Hg8OVPd pic.twitter.com/SVQMNqWM4o
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 30, 2021
Xian fights biggest COVID-19 outbreak in a Chinese city this year https://t.co/RgCpumxzqA pic.twitter.com/Hntoidlsor
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 30, 2021
From a long thread:
"My biggest worry now is China. Omicron will get there. Locally used vaccines have low effectiveness against Omicron. That's real danger, also for world economy".
??'s most prominent virologist @c_drosten (until now mostly positive on ?? covid response).https://t.co/29RoOEsDQq pic.twitter.com/rRIFZUsy68— Thorsten Benner (@thorstenbenner) December 28, 2021
Coming months will test Beijing’s commitment to host Olympics with significant increase in foreign visitors, maintain Zero-Covid promise & keep relying on ??only vaccines & therapeutics. Omicron variant increases pressure that something has to give.
— Thorsten Benner (@thorstenbenner) December 29, 2021
This year’s Spring Festival, aka Chinese New Year, starts February 1st. Year of the Tiger!
I won't be surprised if China is on something close to full lockdown by Spring Festival. Adjust any travel plans accordingly, mainland friends! Also get ready for more supply chain fun.
— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) December 29, 2021
Much of Asia has managed to keep omicron at bay even as the variant rages in other parts of the world. Entry restrictions and widespread mask wearing have helped slow the spread, but the region is bracing for what may be an inevitable surge. https://t.co/xkGF6iquQw
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 29, 2021
India imposes stricter rules to prevent COVID-19 spread during festive season https://t.co/vTncLQJXCu pic.twitter.com/02O9oweUFU
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 30, 2021
… Night curfews have been imposed in all major cities and restaurants ordered to limit customers, officials said.
However, state authorities were finding it difficult to limit crowding in markets, religious sites and holiday destinations as they were allowed to remain open, the officials said.
The country reported 13,154 new COVID-19 cases and 268 deaths in the last 24 hours, the federal health ministry said, with urban centres reporting a big jump. It was the highest number of daily infections since October…
Police in the financial capital Mumbai prohibited public gatherings of five or more residents until January 7 as it recorded a sharp jump in cases with 2,510 infections, the highest daily increase since May, local authorities said…
Earlier this week, India accelerated vaccine distribution by approving Merck’s COVID-19 pill and two more vaccines for emergency use.
Asia’s third-largest economy has already said it will allow COVID-19 booster shots for some of its population.
The emergency approvals come at a time measures are being taken to ramp up oxygen supplies and hospital beds.
But an ongoing strike by thousands of junior doctors against the government has added pressure on the fragile health infrastructure…
Russia on Thursday confirmed 21,073 Covid-19 infections and 926 deaths https://t.co/N9hztBEJH5
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) December 30, 2021
Germany’s health minister says the country's coronavirus infection rate is likely two to three times higher than statistics currently show, and urged his compatriots to be cautious during New Year's celebrations. https://t.co/q4LgJVOOIa
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) December 29, 2021
France is forging ahead with efforts to increase pressure on unvaccinated people to get COVID-19 shots as the country reported 208,000 new coronavirus cases — a record fueled by the omicron variant. https://t.co/D0NDV6c79G
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) December 29, 2021
Music will be banned at commercial venues in Greece, including for New Year's Eve celebrations, amid a surge in COVID-19 cases because of the omicron variant. https://t.co/reLnTL2qb0
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) December 29, 2021
Italy eases isolation rules on COVID-19 contacts https://t.co/aaCfPhOuvR pic.twitter.com/uxoA0xpWHo
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 30, 2021
"The show must go on!" Cinemas, theaters and concert halls will be allowed to reopen in Belgium after authorities came under pressure and reversed COVID-19 restrictions targeting the cultural sector. https://t.co/fAwBfZmli7
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) December 29, 2021
The United Kingdom reported 183,037 COVID-19 cases, a new record and over 53,000 more than the previous highest figure registered just a day earlier, government statistics showed https://t.co/7o1XgyBKLY
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 30, 2021
Britain pledged $141.7 million in emergency aid to help vulnerable nations, particularly in Africa, cope with the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron coronavirus variant https://t.co/j8u0HZFoxF
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 30, 2021
Professor @Tuliodna is one of the scientists at the University of KwaZulu-Natal who first identified the Omicron variant.
He says many African countries are very experienced in dealing with pandemics and calls for respect and investment from Western countries. pic.twitter.com/n9l46JlA25
— BBC News Africa (@BBCAfrica) December 29, 2021
Brazil registers 112 COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday https://t.co/e8W9hjnRel pic.twitter.com/LnSm90ovYO
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 30, 2021
The CDC is investigating cruise ships due to new cases of COVID-19. None of the ships appear to have so many cases they would overwhelm on-board medical resources and require a return to port, but some have been denied entry at foreign ports. https://t.co/gMzBpCtnmb
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 29, 2021
======
Fantastic thread (both in style and substance)
Although Omicron is very capable of evading antibodies and causing reinfections/breakthroughs, it barely evades T-cells at all, meaning vaxxed or recovered people are likely to retain very good protection against severe disease https://t.co/72rMB3qjBB
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 29, 2021
5 Studies, 5 Figures. All consistent, independent replications in vivo, in vitro. Omicron can't infect lungs or lung cells as well as prior variants.@KU_Leuven @SystemsVirology @GuptaR_lab @hkumed @LivUni pic.twitter.com/X9jbugx0vs
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 29, 2021
======
Exclusive: U.S. NIH research hospital delays elective surgeries as Omicron hits https://t.co/BWh7nb5dIA pic.twitter.com/MtOmvCq9ma
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 30, 2021
The Smithsonian will shutter four museums in Washington through Sunday as the spread of the Omicron variant has led to staffing shortages. Coronavirus cases reported in the capital region for the last week were the highest since the start of the pandemic. https://t.co/biJ4h5lh4H
— NYT National News (@NYTNational) December 30, 2021
Las Vegas isn't canceling or scaling back plans for big New Year’s gatherings amid concerns about the omicron variant of COVID-19. Regional public safety and elected leaders say they expect more than 300,000 visitors in town for the events. https://t.co/2pe4RTBfyA
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 30, 2021
Shut up and dance, Spicer:
The notion that it’s somehow “gotcha” for scientists to learn something new and change their minds is foolish.
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) December 29, 2021
rikyrah
Cousin Omicron is not playing with you.
FAAFO
stay your azz at home for NYE?
raven
@rikyrah: Georgia play Michigan at 7:30, no problem for me.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 3,997 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,754,513 cases. It also reports 36 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 31,428 deaths – 1.14% of the cumulative reported total, 1.16% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.95.
213 confirmed cases are in ICU, 77 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 3,984 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,681,390 patients recovered – 97.3% of the cumulative reported total.
Three new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 6,123 clusters. 221 clusters are currently active; 5,902 clusters are now inactive.
3,631 new cases today are local infections. 366 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 185,321 doses of vaccine on 29th December: 3,364 first doses, 4,900 second doses, and 177,057 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 57,305,127 doses administered: 25,990,727 first doses, 25,603,645 second doses, and 5,908,852 booster doses. 79.6% of the population have received their first dose, 78.4% their second dose, and 18.1% their booster dose.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
1573 new cases were reported yesterday. Some of this was catch up from the Christmas holiday, but it’s all too damn high.
NotMax
Locally,
Big gamble, IMHO.
Pandemic postpones pooch pageant.
Sparkedcat
I would like to say “Thank-you Anne Laurie” for keeping us so well informed. You are a fountain of knowledge in the desert of disinformation.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Why do out when you can hang out on a safe blog?
germy
debbie
Things are only going up in Ohio: 20,320 new cases yesterday. It’s an all-time record, and as the governor who refuses to do anything points out, there are certainly many more due to the lack of reporting about at-home tests. The one kit I managed to get has now expired.
ETA: Maybe something will change, since they’re reporting a large increase in hospitalizations for children. Don’t people still care about their kids?
Amir Khalid
I got the Sinovac vaccine this year, and i’m waiting to be notified by text about my booster. Has there been any reporting about that unpublished Hong Kong study that said Sinovac doesn’t work against Omicron?
Baud
@debbie:
Care for kids or own the libs?
The question answers itself.
YY_Sima Qian
On 12/29 China reported 156 new domestic confirmed (none previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Shaanxi Province reported 155 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild). There are currently 1,137 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Yuncheng in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining, a person arrived from Xi’an in Shaanxi.
Guangdong Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 29 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Hulun Buir in Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 15 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 75 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (73 at Manzhouli & 2 at New Barag Right Banner).
At Heihe in Heilongjiang Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Shanghai Municipality reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a traced close contact of an imported positive case reported on 12/23 & has been under centralized quarantine since that date. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 1 residential compound is currently at Medium Risk.
Jiangsu Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 477 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Tianjin Municipality there currently is 1 active confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain from Shaoxing in Zhenjiang.
At Suzhou in Anhui Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain from Zhejiang. 1 village is currently at Medium Risk.
At Chengdu in Sichuan Province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, a quarantine hotel worker & an airport logistics worker.
At Xiamen in Fujian Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining, a quarantine hotel worker.
At Dalian in Liaoning Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.
At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Chongqing Municipality 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.
At Henan Province there currently are 21 active domestic confirmed (19 at Zhengzhou & 2 at Zhoukou) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Zhoukou).
Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was a released from isolation. There currently are 27 active domestic confirmed & 13 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Tongren in Guizhou Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city, a person who returned from Jinghong, Sipsongpanna Prefecture in Yunnan.
Imported Cases
On 12/29, China reported 51 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 26 imported asymptomatic cases, 2 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 59 confirmed cases recovered (32 imported), 14 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (13 imported) & 2 were reclassified as confirmed cases (both imported), & 3,882 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 2,563 active confirmed cases in the country (770 imported), 15 in serious condition (3 imported), 507 active asymptomatic cases (477 imported), 3 suspect cases (all imported). 51,144 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 12/29, 2,810.118M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 14.402M doses in the past 24 hrs.
Hong Kong reported 14 new positive cases on 12/29 & 11 on 12/30, all imported.
satby
” We’ve doubled our covid infections in the last seven days, and are now closing in on 500,000 a day. And that does not include unreported home tests. And 2,000 people died yesterday (Butcher’s bill for today not fully tallied) & we’re calling this number not so bad. We are insane.” Kurt Eichenwald
New Deal democrat
For the first time, cases averaged over 300,000 per day in the US. The last 3 days have averaged 500,000. Deaths have also increased to over 1500. Cases are still on the increase in NY, NJ, HI, and PR, all of which were hit early. Virtually all States and all regions are increasing – with the sole exception of ME. If the rate of increase over the past two weeks – 150% – continues for two more weeks (I.e., the Omicron wave only lasts 4 weeks before peaking), that would mean there will be 750,000 cases per day at peak.
Cases are also increasing in Canada, the EU, Israel, and the UK, but so far none of them have shown any appreciable increase in deaths. In South Africa, cases have now declined 50% from peak, deaths are down about 25%. Deaths in South Africa never reached more than 15% of prior wave peaks, which is very good news.
The issue at the moment seems to be whether hospitalizations and ICU admissions will track the rate of increase in cases or not, and the extent to which children are being especially hard hit. If anyone knows of any good sites to track this data, please let me know.
One final thing: yesterday the issue came up of whether the CDC’s big revision in the trajectory of Omicron was consequential or not. Several commenters noted that the CDC never stressed the mammoth confidence interval of that estimate. There was an important real world consequence of that miscommunication:
https://mobile.twitter.com/syramadad/status/1475931876724555780
“There’s clinical treatment significance in this change as many health systems in the US reduced administering certain monoclonal antibodies known to be less effective for patients with or suspected to be infected with omicron.”
debbie
@Baud:
I can’t find it now, but the local Fox station ran a report last night where a COVID patient said from beneath his oxygen mask (paraphrasing) that it hurt to breathe, it hurt to cough, and he was very scared.
I was shocked that this would be allowed on a Sinclair station.
raven
@debbie: Osterholm just said they aren’t good enough anyway.
debbie
@raven:
I heard that too. Someone should be along shortly to blame the CDC. //
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Meh, that dude is a fourteen year old girl with mummy issues trapped in a man’s body, but the woman is an idiot too if she thinks masks are enough in crowd full of drunk dumbasses.
Percysowner
I live in a red state (redder than it should be due to gerrymandering). My Son-In-Law works for the State Legislature. If you live in my state and win a championship, open a business, turn a surprisingly old age, etc. you get a letter written by him or a coworker. Yesterday they quietly told him that next week they will be working from home for 4 days. They will rotate staff so there are few people in the office at the same time. In other words, even this red “we won’t let employers require masks or vaccination” state is worried.
Kay
Good idea! All US schools should just do whatever Massachusetts does with schools, in all areas :)
YY_Sima Qian
@Amir Khalid:
None that I have seen. However, I would plan on being virtually no protection against infection by Omicron, if you have not been boosted. This is true of every vaccine in use. After booster, even w/ an mRNA vaccine, antibodies against Omicron will wane quickly, to the point that protection against symptomatic infection drops to ~ 30% by 4 weeks post-boosting. However, all of the vaccines in use should still afford good protection against hospitalization & death (mRNA being the best, followed by AZ-Oxford, then the inactivated whole varion vaccines, then the single shot J&J or CanSino), better if boosted. You should behave accordingly.
MSM has been atrocious in conveying what is meant as “working” or “not working” when it comes to vaccines,
OzarkHillbilly
No.
YY_Sima Qian
There clearly has been a huge (relatively speaking) increase in imported cases coming from the US & Canada into China in the past week or so, & still rising. China has not been consistently publishing how many of the imported cases are Omicron, possibly to reduce population anxiety.
Cameron
@germy: Real tough guy, eh?
Kalakal
@germy:
There’s a world of insecurity in that statement.
“challenge” FFS
Amir Khalid
@YY_Sima Qian:
Thank you. There have only been a few confirmed cases of Omicron here in Malaysia, almost all imported cases. But the Health Ministry is still is worrying about the possibility of an Omicron-driven new wave.
VOR
There are a lot of people out there who don’t understand that real scientists change their theories when they learn new facts. They just cannot wrap their heads around someone saying “I was wrong, we ought to do B instead of A”. I think this affects their political beliefs and goes a long way towards explaining the attraction to someone who never admits they were wrong. And it’s not just TFG. In his infamous White House Correspondents speech, Colbert said of GW Bush “He believes the same thing Wednesday that he believed on Monday, no matter what happened Tuesday.”
JMG
Ms. Rofer is way smarter than I am, but I must disagree with her vision of administrative chaos if there is a vaccination mandate for air travel. I say that because I just experienced one in November, flying to and from France, and it involved a marginal increase in inconvenience at most. Even on domestic flights, the TSA checks every ID. Checking a vaccination card or QR code wouldn’t be a stretch at all. If they wanted to speed things up, they could let people keep their goddamn shoes on.
Soprano2
This was the big problem – the press seized on the eye-popping percentage increase without noting the boring fact that the confidence interval made that figure almost useless. It wasn’t just yet another hit to the CDC’s credibility – it had real-world consequences for treatment. This is the problem with them getting it so wrong. Like I said yesterday, when I saw that figure I knew it couldn’t possibly be right because the reporting isn’t that good in this country to begin with, and omicron couldn’t have possibly spread all across this country that fast. Unfortunately, the press here still isn’t that sophisticated when it comes to science reporting – they see “increase to 73% in a week” and decide that’s the headline without noting “with a huge confidence interval”. How many people would even understand what that means anyway? In two or three more weeks, that percentage will be a lot more believable, but omicron infections have that “straight up” signature, and most places weren’t seeing that yet. We’re starting to see that here; I expect it to be explicit by next week, since there was a story yesterday that they detected omicron in the wastewater here. If I remember correctly, wastewater detections are about a week ahead of the increase in cases observed, and we have A LOT of unvaccinated people in SWMO.
YY_Sima Qian
In response to Thorsten Benner’s thread, I think western commentators are overstating the impact of different vaccines on arresting the spread of Omicron. Even the mRNA vaccines post-boosting only get to ~ 70% efficacy against symptomatic Omicron infection (sterilizing immunity rate would be lower than than), & dropping to well less than 50% within 4 wks. The Chinese inactivated whole varion vaccines may not even get to 50% efficacy against symptomatic Omicron infection post-boosting. However, the differences in efficacies against hospitalization & deaths between mRNA & inactivated whole varion vaccines have not been all that large for past variants (high 80s% versus low 80s% against Delta), & is not likely to be large for Omicron. mRNA vaccines’ much higher sterilizing efficacy against previous variants might have had a meaningful impact on arresting spread, but that is no longer the case against Omicron.
I do wish the Chinese government would approve the BioNTech vaccine & give it to the most vulnerable population. The decision not to approve it (yet) is clearly partly political (& possibly also influenced by lobbying from domestic vaccines manufacturers). However, there are also public health issues to be address. Fosun Pharma, the distributor of the BioNTech vaccine for Greater China, only has a standing priority order for 100M doses, 13+M of which have gone to Taiwan & ~ 6M to Hong Kong. 80M doses will not have a meaningful impact in a country of 1.4+B people. If it is available in Mainland China, many people may also choose to wait for it, rather than taking what is available, w/ a black market sure to develop that will undermine equitable distribution). OTOH, the elderly population will also be the ones most likely to be skeptical of the newfangled mRNA tech., & most likely to be deterred by the stronger side effects. China may finally approve it after the factory w/ 1B doses / yr capacity being built by Fosun & BioNTech is up & running, but that efforts seems to be running into startup issues. Chinese mRNA vaccine candidate is still in Phase III trial at Mexico/Pakistan/Indonesia, though should be finished soon.
Even w/ Omicron turning into more of an upper respiratory infection, & vaccines + boosters significantly reducing hospitalizations & deaths, allowing Omicron to rampage across China (inevitably in a short time period) will still overwhelm the healthcare system, bringing collapse in the lower tier cities & the countryside (where resources are much more scarce). Therefore, I think China will continue its “Dynamic Zero COVID” strategy until it is either unnecessary or untenable (more likely the latter), & delay for as long as possible, hopefully more effective vaccines are approved & in the arms by then, w/ those targeting Omicron on the horizon. I think that is the right strategy. The flu kills ~ 80K people in China every year. A massive Omicron tsunami will surely kill low hundreds of thousands in China, even in a highly vaccinated & boosted population.
Having followed the pandemic closely over the past 2 years, I do not believe the pandemic response of any of the western democracies were the result of open & rigorous debate of the cost-benefits of different courses. Instead, they almost all defaulted to what was feasible political & logistically at the moment. Delta forced Australia’s & New Zealand’s hands, making their containment/elimination measures untenable, having to scrap them before reaching their vaccination targets. Otherwise, I am sure they would have continued w/ “Zero COVID” a while longer. We will have to see if Omicron does the same to China.
Anon
If the TSA can uniformly enforce a liquid ban, I think they can uniformly enforce a vaccine mandate.
MomSense
@rikyrah:
Son’s fiancée played (she’s a pianist) at a funeral Tuesday for a 2 year old who died from COVID. Tiny casket, stuffed animals, destroyed parents and grandparents. My son told me that she was absolutely furious with rage and unbelievably sad when she got home.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@NeenerNeener: In Connecticut yesterday’s numbers were:
42,295 tests administered, 7,520 new COVID-19 cases, confirmed and probable, and 150 new COVID hospitalizations (bringing the total hospitalizations to 1113)
Our daily test positivity rate is now something like 17.78%
Putting my mask on, and off to work again, wheeee!
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@MomSense: I’m so sorry , that must be so awful, for everyone. I want to punch unvaxxed people who natter on about, oh it’s only the old, and people with co-morbidities that might catch it (like they don’t matter) and they don’t even think about all the children who can not get immunized yet, or are immunized and catch it anyway. And a lot of parents have to send their kids to daycare because they have to go in to work.
arrieve
I have a Covid test scheduled this morning, because I’m scheduled for a colonoscopy next week. Now I think I should maybe postpone everything? The positivity rate in Manhattan was 1-1.4% for so long, then last week it jumped to 9%. Yesterday it was 19.4%. And given that people who were able to get home test kits will use those instead of waiting in the very long lines at the testing centers, the real percentage is likely much higher.
sab
@NotMax: And Las Vegas hospital situation is woefully inadequate at the best of times.
WaterGirl
@Baud: The vaccination rate on BJ has to be sky-high. We are probably setting a world record.
sab
@debbie: My sister-in-law jad to drive 45 miles to find an available space at a testing site. So testing is now like vaccinating was last spring. You have to go deep into the Republican areas to find a spot, necause they get all the resources , which they won’t be bothered to use.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — today’s new case numbers are 16,800, up a little from yesterday’s record number but continuing the trend. There’s still a backlog of tests so the actual case count will be higher. Test positivity rate is 27%. There were 9 new deaths reported of people who had a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis within 28 days.
Hospitalisations continue to creep up towards the “third wave” peak of about a thousand seen in September but ICU bed occupancy remains down.
Vaccinations aren’t happening much at the moment, given the holiday period. We’ll see what happens after the New Year celebrations are over.
sdhays
@Anon: I agree. Enforcement isn’t an issue. Airlines themselves enforce documentation requirements for international flights all the time. And you don’t need to just accept possibly fraudulent CDC cards. Create a system where they need to put in their vaccine information such that it can be verified. If you’re in a state system or CVS or whatever, make it a few clicks.
Elizabelle
@Anon: Flying from Germany to Spain tomorrow (trip booked before Omicron). Stopped by the travel agent today; he input all my vaccination information, including date of last booster, into the computer. I believe Spain is highly interested in that information, as was Germany.
The EU offers an EU Digital Covid [Vaccination] Certificate. Am hearing they are easy to get in Spain, and hope that is the case. It will make flying into Germany that much easier.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/eu-digital-covid-certificate_en
Germany is very strict on seeing COVID vaccination status, on masking, and on contact tracing (we use an app called Luca for that).
It feels safer to be in countries that take this pandemic more seriously. As a public health emergency, rather than as a tribal political statement.
It’s funny — so many Germans have heard me speak and guessed that I am British this trip. It’s constant. Maybe it is bad form to suggest someone might be an American??
Robert Sneddon
@sdhays: Oh dear, “a few clicks”. Every SQL developer that read this just threw up in their mouth a little.
Really, if someone at the boarding gate at an airport is checking vaccination records they’ll accept anything that looks official just to get the pax on board the aircraft and out of their hair. A perfectly frictionless record system that provides personal secure validated vaccination data within a second or two of the gate staff requesting it is a programming job that would take years to implement and billions in hardware, data centre hosting etc. and that’s only for, say, US citizens flying in the US. Foreigners won’t be on the US system at all but they’re at the gate getting angry because they ‘re not being allowed on their flight.
Feathers
Everyone traveling to Beijing for the Olympics must produce negative COVID tests 96 and 72 hours before their flight. Since athletes will be arriving the last week in January, this means anyone catching Covid now won’t be able compete.
US and Canada have their National Championships/Olympic trials next week. US tightened their Covid rules after outrage at the original no-mask, no-bubble, athlete meet and greet meals plans. There are calls for Canada to have a test skate for competitors who have qualified to compete at the Olympics. Basically, a skater has to have scored a minimum mark in an international event in the last two years to be Olympic eligible. Having a large competition with an audience of 1000s where anyone who catches Covid is barred from travel to the host country is a stupid way to pick an Olympic team. The number of actually eligible athletes is much smaller. US Figure Skating made a huge error in not keeping the event in Las Vegas, where there is a hotel with an ice rink.
Canada more likely to go with the test skate, as they have been canceling more events all along. But they didn’t have the Vegas option
JoyceH
@arrieve: Absolutely you should postpone!
Ken
I thought I’d read that on of the Pacific island nations had reached 100%, but I’m not seeing it in the summary sites. The best is the UAE at slightly over 99%. But I think you’re right, BJ is likely to be competitive.
smith
@Ken: Last I saw, Democrats were over 90% vaccinated, and that was before omicron and full implementation of a lot of mandates. Any place that harbors a lot of Dems is going to have a very high vax rate.
Mai Naem mobile
The guy who does our handyman work went to do some non emergency handyman stuff at a house where the people living at the house didn’t tell him they had COVID till he had been in the house for a while and gotten done. Apparently they’re evangelicals whose church is telling them not to get vaccinated. WTF? It’s bad enough you don’t get vaccinated but why expose other people? He was justifiably po’d off and as he was leaving he told the guy they wouldn’t have gotten COVID if they had gotten vaxxed in the first place. Oh, and he has an adult child who has serious chronic medical issues. He’s vaxxed and was masked but he was in the house for over an hour. I just don’t understand people. This is just incredibly selfish.
mrmoshpotato
I’d hate to think Spicer is that stupid when it’s most definite that he’s just a fucking asshole.
Another Scott
@Mai Naem mobile: My step mom in MS got vaccinated and boosted early (Moderna) and has been careful. She just went through the Whipple Procedure to treat her cancer of the bile duct. The surgeon said it was “easy” and she’s in great shape and the cancer shows no sign of spreading.
She had to spend 2 weeks in post-surgery rehab and everything was going great. She got home yesterday.
And she just told me that she tested positive for Covid (apparently picked up at the rehab place). Fortunately, asymptomatic so far.
Too many people who are in the business to know better refuse to do so and they’re endangering others….
Good luck to him. And to everyone sensible!
Grrr…,
Scott.
Cermet
@YY_Sima Qian: Why does China allow these people (anyone who has been outside of China and esp. Americans) to comeback/visit? Their staying/quarantining here in the US is fine since we already have a growing wave.
mwing
Cheryl Rofer’s analysis makes sense to me.
I had really been wondering why there was no vaccine proof requirement for all interior USA flights, but I think she is right that the federal government does not want to announce a policy that it cannot properly enforce, they don’t want to be seen to try it and fail.
I think there would in fact be open defiance by a bunch of States, (more) violence in airports, and even more card counterfitting, (Even I could counterfit this!)
I mean I guess TSA would be the obvious people to enforce it, right? Since they are checking ID and boarding passes anyway? And they are federal employees, right, not under State control?
But it doesn’t get around the fake-vax-card thing.
Also at this point I truly believe there would be multiple violent demonstrations in airports if such a thing were enforced. Riots. There are so many people right now who are just at the edge of public violence.
Imagine multiple mini-Jan 6’s, happening in airports, where the same decision the Capitol Police had to make- how many people are you willing to shoot to keep control, is it even possible to keep control regardless- has to get made repeatedly?
In similar but much smaller situations in airports, would law enforcement make that judgement correctly- every time? A failure either way would be a political disaster for the Biden Administration.
I think they have literally thought through and game-planned all these scenarios and got to the end and said, “nope.”
mwing
@sdhays: But the thing is, there isn’t just a big database somewhere, is there? – I got my first 2 vaccines at a pop-up clinic at UMass Boston- but not *from* U Mass Boston ~ it was a vendor contracted with by the state and I don’t remember their name, and it may have been 2 different ones, and it’s not on the card. Booster at a Tufts walk-in site, where I gave ID but it was not even required. (For homeless people and undocumented immigrants, which makes sense, especially where the location was)
Do we know if there is even 50-big State-level databases where all this info is going? And what is the lag time/ accuracy?
Maybe I’m wrong/out of date, but I have never assumed that every vaccination in MA was being reported to a central database?
debbie
@OzarkHillbilly:
I know you’re right, but I can’t stand your answer.
Another Scott
@mwing: I think all the COVID vaccinations in the US are reported to the CDC.
My story:
I initially signed up for my Covid vaccines with some state of Virginia system, because they decided that they wanted it centralized rather than having localities do it. There were some delays in getting the system going. My information was then eventually transferred to my locality and I eventually was able to get my first shot.
By the time it was time for me to sign up for my 2nd shot, the process had been transferred to the national system. But they had no record of my previous shot.
By the time it was time for me to sign up for my Booster, the national system thought it was for my 2nd shot.
I went back to the county health department (where I had received all my previous shots) and the person there was able to track down all my previous shots under the various systems using the software on her PC and get them all on my card. So, maybe, when the time comes for shot #4 everyone will be on the same page.
So, I’m not at all surprised that there seems to be problems with keeping track of who is getting their 2nd shot and who is getting boostered and why some localities seem to have over 100% of the population fully vaccinated. Here’s hoping, though, that a sensible national system is created before the next pandemic…
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Cermet: The vast majority of people coming from the US/Canada to China are Chinese nationals returning from study or family visit abroad. It is also the end of Fall semester in North America, so some of the Chinese university students who went to the US in the summer to finally resume in person study (after > 1 yrs of remote learning w/ > 12 hrs hrs time zone difference, & not at all getting their full tuition money’s worth in terms of quality of education) assessed the risk of the oncoming Omicron tsunami & decided to return home. Unlike Australia, China has not restricted its own nationals from returning throughout the course of the pandemic, at least not as a matter of official policy. US/Canadian nationals may include people w/ existing jobs in China (such as high level executives posted to Chinese subsidiaries of MNCs), or going to university in China, or engineers supporting plan start ups and equipment installations. China deem these people to be important enough to be allowed in (perhaps not the students), as all of them require special visa for entry, all existing visas are suspended.
China does make the process of entering the country extremely onerous. One needs a negative RT-PCR test & a negative IgM antibody test first (from testing facilities audited & approved by the Chinese embassy), then self-quarantine for 2 weeks (no idea how that is enforced), then another negative RT-PCR & IgM antibody tests within 48 hrs of departure, just to receive a green health code to board the plane. Apparently the green health code is even more difficult to obtain than the special visa. I imagine at least some of the imported cases were infected on the plane, phylogenetic analysis would tell the tale. The number of flights are few, seats hard to obtain & exorbitantly expensive. They are also prone to be cancelled, due to circuit breakers being triggered for having too many infected persons on the same flight. The regularly scheduled flight from LAX to Tianjin (actually to Beijing but diverted to Tianjin) will likely be shut down for 4 weeks, after 15 positive cases have been found on it to date.
Upon landing there is the well known mandatory 2-wks centralized quarantine & testing regime at port of entry (I think at least 1 anal swab is still standard), & the traveler bears the cost of centralized quarantine (~ US$ 1 – 1.5K). Plus another 1 – 2 wks home or centralized quarantine (depending on the location) & additional testing at final destination. All of these deterrents serve to keep the cross-Pacific traffic to a tiny trickle of the pre-COVID level. China does not have the quarantine capacity to handle even 10% of normal travel volumes.
I would have loved to get my parents back to China at any point since summer 2020, but China is not even issuing special visas for family visits (unless it is for emergency or bereavement), let alone everything I just discussed above. I have read horror stories of Chinese émigrés rushing home because a parent was critically ill, but the parent passed away while the person was still stuck in quarantine.
glc
@Robert Sneddon: Implemented in France months ago. Used my QR code for restaurant seating as well.
On another topic, Topol has this to say:
https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-very-bad-day-at-the-cdc