President Biden should be speaking with Putin any minute now. What will they be talking about? Who has the upper hand, do you think?
Also, this poem just came out. Thoughts?
Open thread.
Amanda Gorman – New Year’s Poem: ‘New Day’s Lyric‘
May this be the day
We come together.
Mourning, we come to mend,
Withered, we come to weather,
Torn, we come to tend,
Battered, we come to better.
Tethered by this year of yearning,
We are learning
That though we weren’t ready for this,
We have been readied by it.
We steadily vow that no matter
How we are weighed down,
We must always pave a way forward.
This hope is our door, our portal.
Even if we never get back to normal,
Someday we can venture beyond it,
To leave the known and take the first steps.
So let us not return to what was normal,
But reach toward what is next.
What was cursed, we will cure.
What was plagued, we will prove pure.
Where we tend to argue, we will try to agree,
Those fortunes we forswore, now the future we foresee,
Where we weren’t aware, we’re now awake;
Those moments we missed
Are now these moments we make,
The moments we meet,
And our hearts, once all together beaten,
Now all together beat.
Come, look up with kindness yet,
For even solace can be sourced from sorrow.
We remember, not just for the sake of yesterday,
But to take on tomorrow.
We heed this old spirit,
In a new day’s lyric,
In our hearts, we hear it:
For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne.
Be bold, sang Time this year,
Be bold, sang Time,
For when you honor yesterday,
Tomorrow ye will find.
Know what we’ve fought
Need not be forgotten nor for none.
It defines us, binds us as one,
Come over, join this day just begun.
For wherever we come together,
We will forever overcome.
In her Instagram post, Gorman urged readers to donate money to the International Rescue Committee to help people affected by the pandemic.
Open thread.
Chief Oshkosh
Great poem from a great poet. Classic yet new. Thanks.
JPL
Hope springs eternal.
Old School
Very nice.
Patricia Kayden
Elie
So deep — Let us work towards the light, even as we continue to suffer…. May we be up to this mighty task before us….
NotMax
For no reason other than the post title reminded me of it, Politics and Poker.
;)
coin operated
Damn, she’s good.
SiubhanDuinne
She’s the real deal. A wonderful poet.
SpaceUnit
I’ve mentioned this before, but until someone can prove otherwise I’m going to assume that for the foreseeable future Putin’s number one priority is to damage Biden’s presidency. Everything he does should be viewed through that lens.
And he is clearly trying to ratchet up an international crisis toward that end. Biden should offer few words – just a vague assurance of our commitment to peace by whatever means necessary ( carrot or stick ). Otherwise let Putin do all the yammering.
MobiusKlein
Biden, Stone Cold Assassin – what would be the fallout (figurative or otherwise) if Biden did Putin in?
sdhays
@SpaceUnit: I have no doubt that Putin wants to damage Biden’s Presidency. But this falls into the fallacy of thinking of the US as the center of the universe. Putin has a lot of things going on, and many of them really don’t have anything to do with the US.
If his number one priority is truly trying to damage Biden, then he’s lost his own plot.
NotMax
At least we don’t have to be subjected to tripe about Pooty-poot anymore.
Small comfort, but comfort nevertheless.
Benw
Great poem. Love: “let us not return to what was normal”
Putin is so slimy. Ew.
Ken
@NotMax: At least, we won’t see the President of the United States leave the meeting and start gushing over how great Putin is. The media may take up the slack, though.
WaterGirl
@Ken: I wonder what Biden and Putin talked about in their private meeting with no translator for our side? oh, wait, we’re not doing that anymore! :-)
SpaceUnit
@sdhays:
I don’t know.
It’s not so much that I’m imaging the US at the center of everything. It’s just that a weakened, ineffectual America, roiling with internal conflict and actually failing as a state, would grease the skids for every geopolitical goal that Putin has. This includes the expansion of Russian borders and influence, a marginalized NATO, weakened US / European ties and cooperation, economic ambitions. Not to mention that the man hates America and would love to see it humiliated. And it would make him more popular at home. I could go on and on.
Roger Moore
@sdhays:
Hard agree. Putin’s top priority is to stay in power. Most of his actions are taken with internal politics in mind. I’m sure he would love to replace Biden with one of the Republicans who’s in his pocket (i.e. all of them, Katie), but that’s secondary to keeping domestic politics under control.
JoyceH
@Patricia Kayden: I’ve been seeing talk that the new redistricting looks like it won’t be as dire for Dems as originally predicted. Yes, Repubs have control of the map making in too many places, but those places have had such large population growth of the groups they’re scared of that they have to do a lot of defensive gerrymandering to protect the seats they have. Leaves them with less numbers to work with for offensive gerrymandering, to expand outward and take currently Democratic seats.
sdhays
@WaterGirl: Our side will actually have a representative in the room (figuratively) this time.
Cermet
In reality, this should be a cake walk by Biden: demand guarantee’s for the Ukraine, and if they are proper then offer these conditional guarantee’s to Russia relative to NATO’s expansion (or not, in this case.)
Hildebrand
Posted Amanda Gorman’s poem on every social media platform I’m on – always good to flood the zone with good when you have the opportunity.
Ohio Mom
That poem captures the moment. Years from now we’ll be able to read it and be transported back to this threshold.
Cermet
Also, President Biden has a great economy, the worlds greatest and best equipped military, best military hardware (esp. Tanks and planes, and absolute control of the oceans), we absolutely dwarf’s Russia in ever area scientifically and economically, have allies that are extremely powerful military and also have huge economies; doesn’t have China on its border and … the list goes on and on. No, putin the snake has little room to push back against the US and its strong position to negotiate.
TheflipPsyd
I love this poem. Her words are beautiful. The past few years, the poem I’ve most thought about is William Butler Yeats, The Second Coming. I know that now when I think about how dystopian the present feels, her poem will bring me hope. She truly has a way with words and to communicate the current zeitgeist so lyrically is amazing.
FelonyGovt
I’m reading Adam Schiff’s book in preparation for our book club, and I’m pleasantly surprised by how gripping and easy to read it is. Most political books are deadly dull and leaden.
zhena gogolia
@sdhays: He has most certainly lost his own plot if that plot involves lifting a finger to help his own people.
sdhays
@JoyceH: That’s what I’ve seen as well. At best, they may get one or two more seats easier for the GQP to win. They still lose in 2018 and even 2020 with that kind of map. They’re banking on historical trends giving them the House next year, and that may be enough.
But a LOT of shit is going to hit the fan next year before the election. The Senate may yet pass BBB and voting reform. The January 6 Commission will have hearings and deliver its report. Oh, and the Supreme Court is going to gut Roe v. Wade – we’re just not sure how badly.
How all that affects voting is impossible to map out before it even happens. Anyone certain of the 2022 elections at this point is just spewing bullshit. If the GQP was actually confident, they would have been more aggressive in their gerrymandering.
zhena gogolia
I thought from the post title we were going to be treated to VVP’s favorite poems. Vomit.
Baud
tl;dr
WaterGirl
@FelonyGovt: I have some exciting news re; the book club.
Ken
@zhena gogolia:
Oh freddled gruntbuggly, thy micturations are to me,
As plurdled gabbleblotchits, in midsummer morning
On a lurgid bee, that mordiously hath blurted out,
Its earted jurtles…
WaterGirl
@Baud: I guess you’ll be president and our national poet.
coin operated
@SpaceUnit:
Putin’s been shown the stick…cutoff from banking systems. It leaked out earlier this month that the US would ask that Russia be cut off from SWIFT as part of a sanction package should Putin get stupid in Ukraine. The Russian economy, already perilous (from what I’ve read), would nose-dive.
Miss Bianca
@FelonyGovt: I am finishing up Travelers in the Third Reich (another surprisingly easy read, considering the subject matter) and then I am jumping into Schiff, courtesy of WaterGirl and a generous book donor (thank you, Book Donor! You know who you are!).
Baud
@WaterGirl:
It’s part of my 10-point plan to streamline government.
Old School
@Baud: I can provide you with a 5-point plan.
Baud
@Old School: What is this? Name that Tune?
JaySinWa
Tough call, Putin may be doing a Crazy Ivan, and that’s not a good game for either player when you can’t be sure he’s bluffing. Putin is in survivor mode as others have pointed out. Omicron is a wild card of sorts. Oligarch and public sentiment is another. There’s a lot of pressure on Putin and no telling what will squeeze out.
A Ghost to Most
Sorry to intrude, but the winds here are howling to 110 mph, and there are wildfires in southern Boulder. Evacuations are happening. You might want to check in on Tamara, since that is her neck of the woods. That is all.
JaySinWa
@Old School: If this is lowball bidding can I offer a pointless plan and win?
Baud
@A Ghost to Most:
Who is her?
ETA: saw the edit.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: What?
My broken arm has paused my reading. The book is too heavy to hold, and as I feared, it’s too depressing for me to read about Repugs right now. All I can do is watch the 2003 version of The Idiot.
Roger Moore
@Ken:
I think that’s Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz, not VVP.
OzarkHillbilly
@WaterGirl: And?
Ken
@Roger Moore: Are you going to tell Putin he plagiarized it?
Geoduck
@Ken: Hm. Some of your metaphysical imagery is particularly effective!
Ken
Republicans got there first, with their last six plans to decrease the deficit by cutting taxes.
SpaceUnit
@coin operated:
Yeah, and I’m sure that was a strategic leak. I think Putin is just probing . . . trying to find a weakness in the current administration that he can exploit for political advantage. He wants Trump back.
Chief Oshkosh
Western Europe is not predicted to be especially cold this season. So short term, this modestly blunts one of Putin’s bargaining chips.
Jay
@Cermet:
Russia, under Putin hasn’t kept to any of the “agreements” with Ukraine, or the International Community in regards to Ukraine,
so why bother “negotiating”?
Ukraine can’t formally join NATO as a key article of both Charters is that a nation can’t join, as long as they have unresolved territorial disputes with other Nations, and Ukraine has several.
mrmoshpotato
@zhena gogolia:
Not sure Vlad’s plot ever involved helping the Russian people. It definitely doesn’t look to be that way in the age of COVID-19.
Unique uid
Love the poem. I see a link to Instagram, where it was announced. But I don’t have an account there and don’t do meta.
Is her reading it available somewhere?
I’m surprised I don’t have a Gorman ‘36 bumper sticker yet.
JPL
Evacuations south of Boulder are happening now, because of wildfires. I’m not familiar with where Tamara lives, but I hope she is okay.
mrmoshpotato
@A Ghost to Most: Thanks for the heads-up. Are you safe?
germy
Gin & Tonic
@Cermet: It’s not “the” Ukraine, and security guarantees for the country were signed by Russia in 1993. They need to stop violating them.
SiubhanDuinne
@A Ghost to Most:
Yikes! Stay safe.
JPL
@A Ghost to Most: Be safe.
Water Girl, Please check on Tamara
germy
I have friends who moved to Lafayette CO a few years ago. I see their local YMCA is an evacuation site.
They told me the air quality was horrible during the last round of fires. It must be terrible now.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: electronic version, then?
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL:
I hope TaMara gets a lot of messages. I just sent her one myself. Are there any other Jackals in that area who might be in harm’s way?
WaterGirl
@JPL: I asked John to call TaMara. i’ll let you know as soon as I hear something.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: I have not gotten into that yet. I’ll do my best.
Somehow, although I read for a living, right now any kind of serious reading is depressing me.
debbie
Not to go all histrionic, but this is Biden’s opportunity not to be Neville Chamberlain. Not that I think he would go that route, but a strong definitive response to Putin’s “red lines” is required. Putin needs to be stopped NOW.
Cermet
@Jay: Well, that they can’t join is good for us, and likely why Russia made such a stink with them. That all said, putin will abide by agreements that have sanctions attached and I bet there are such – with covid and his other economic problems, he could be hurt extremely bad. But as in all things, time will tell.
dmsilev
Any Floridians who can enlighten us (or at least speculate amusingly) about WTF your Governor is doing? Apparently he hasn’t been seen in public for almost two weeks now. Seems kind of convenient for him to vanish right around the time that Omicron started doing its thing.
Rob
@JPL: Twitter hashtag for the Marshall fire
https://twitter.com/hashtag/MarshallFire?src=hashtag_click&f=live
I checked in with a Twitter friend who lives in Boulder County Colorado and he’s ok (for now)
WaterGirl
@debbie: Yep. Putin got his freebie when he invaded them last time. Swift and fierce response is what we need this time.
VeniceRiley
Miss Gorman give me strength! Right when we needed another Maya Angelou more than anything.
Kay
@Patricia Kayden:
Even isn’t good enough though.
Now maybe the generic ballot doesn’t mean that much, but saying it’s tied as a (good) indicator for Democrats implies that it does mean something and if it does, “even” isn’t good enough.
For me the better news is that it was at R +8 and now it’s even. Hopefully it keeps getting better.
RaflW
@JPL: Holy crap. It looks really bad out there. I’m heading to CO in a couple weeks.
Snow has picked up for much of the mountain region, but not much in the foothills or plains this winter. Like days from setting a record with out snow from last spring onward.
Dang.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: I don’t understand how Kindle works. Do I need some device?
JPL
@WaterGirl: No news might be good news, because she’s busy prepping everyone for a road trip.
JPL
@RaflW: that is scary
JoyceH
@zhena gogolia: You can download a free Kindle app for tablet or phone. I do almost all my book reading on my phone these days.
Roger Moore
@debbie:
A lot of the criticism of Chamberlain over Munich is somewhere between overdone and dishonest. The Munich agreement wasn’t a serious attempt to buy Hitler off. It was an attempt to stall the start of the war so the UK and France would have more time to rearm. It was a terrible failure at that- Germany was also rearming, and Czechoslovakia helped enormously at doing so- but the claim of “peace in our time” was just an attempt to sell a move he didn’t think he could sell otherwise. Warmongers have used it as justification not to negotiate ever since, which is nothing but an attempt to twist events to suit their unwillingness to negotiate anything ever.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: Do you have a Kindle or an iPad?
You do have a mac laptop, right? You should be able to read it on there in iBooks.
You would just need to order the electronic version.
Or do what I did and order the audio version. Maybe that would be a good choice for you right now? Surely you don’t want anything you have to HOLD.
Jay
@Cermet:
Putin hasn’t held to any “agreements”, from Ukraine to Libya, even those backed up with sanctions.
Which is why everybody keeps trying to come up with “targeted sanctions”, that hurt Putin’s Clique, ( but doesn’t require hurting their own interests, eg. Real Estate, or require real action, like an actual arms blockaid).
debbie
@Roger Moore:
The stalling, for whatever reason, was pointless and doesn’t merit even being defended. It was wrong. It was long past time to stand up to Hitler. All Chamberlain really did was give Hitler permission to proceed with his plan.
zhena gogolia
@JoyceH: that’s out for me. It would have to be a laptop
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: no I can’t stand to be read to
SpaceUnit
@Roger Moore:
Yep. Chamberlain really took one for the team.
SpaceUnit
@debbie:
At that time they would have gotten steamrollered.
debbie
@SpaceUnit:
And instead, plenty of other people got steamrollered right out of existence.
SpaceUnit
@debbie:
That is certainly true. And one could argue that all the world should have taken the Nazi threat more seriously. But in that moment it was a necessary strategy. If British forces had fallen early on then the entire war could have been lost before it ever started.
Roger Moore
@debbie:
I agree that Chamberlain made a terrible mistake. From a strategic standpoint, Czechoslovakia was a much better thing to go to war over than Poland.
But if you’re going to criticize Chamberlain, criticize him over that. Criticizing him because he supposedly got fooled and honestly believed Hitler would give up after being given the Sudetenland is nonsense. At best it’s an uninformed reading of history. At worst, it’s a dishonest argument made by people opposed to any kind of negotiation for why we shouldn’t negotiate today.
A Ghost to Most
@mrmoshpotato: We’re about 15 miles south of the fires, near North Table Mountain outside Golden. The wind broke three fence posts, and fence blew down, but no fire here. Yet.
Roger Moore
@SpaceUnit:
I’m not at all sure of this. The Germans weren’t ready for war in 1938, either, and Czechoslovakia was in many ways a tougher opponent than Poland. Czechoslovakia had a modern military, good border defenses, and more defensible terrain than Poland. It was a much less amenable place for blitzkrieg tactics than Poland and very likely would have been able to hold out for longer, especially if Britain and France had actually mobilized and done something against German rather than just sit there as they did in 1939.
And that’s just the direct military situation. Part of the reason Czechoslovakia had a modern military was they had a modern arms industry that Germany was able to take over intact. Instead of giving the UK and France a chance to catch up to Germany in rearmament, the Munich agreement wound up handing Germany an advantage. Not to mention that backing Czechoslovakia might have kept the USSR on the sidelines instead of having them ally with the Nazis no matter how temporarily.
It was a huge blunder overall. It just wasn’t a blunder because Chamberlain honestly thought it would bring about peace.
Geminid
@SpaceUnit: Or, the German army might have failed to break the Czechoslovokian defenses, and the Nazi regime collapsed instead of Czechoslovakia.
Hitler was a bluffer, and he did not buy off the Soviets until August, 1939. Even then, he was counting on the British and French to stay out of his war with Poland.
phdesmond
the most striking thing to me about Gorman’s new poem is how she pays respect to the alliterative anglo-saxon poetry tradition.
link.
Bill Arnold
@zhena gogolia:
There is also the kindle cloud reader, browser-based, at
https://read.amazon.com/
Log in with the your amazon id/password.
SpaceUnit
Lotta 20 /20 WWII hindsight going on around here.
Geminid
@SpaceUnit: The French Army’s material strength relative to Germany’s was greater in 1938 than it was after. And the Munich Agreement may have helped start the process by which French morale was to crumble in May, 1940. It definitely persuaded Stalin that France and especially Great Britain were not reliable allies. Munich started the process that led to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of late August, 1939.
The French actually wanted to back Czechoslovakia up, but could not do it without the British. One history I read of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact described the jubilant crowd that cheered French Premier Daladier after Munich. Unlike Chamberlin, Daladier was not impressed by the adulation. “The fools,” Daladier said to the man standing next to him on the balcony.
SpaceUnit
If only Chamberlain had access to a modern-day history book.
Geminid
@SpaceUnit: Not neccesarily hindsight. Most of what people are talking about was forseeable and forseen in 1938. Chamberlin may have been judged harshly afterwards, but he was judged fairly.
But hey, if the topic appeals to you, check out The Deadly Embrace: Hitler, Stalin, and the Nazi-Soviet Pact 1939-41 by Anthony Read and David Fisher (1988). It’s a well researched, fascinating history of European diplomacy from Munich up to the German invasion of Russia in June, 1941
While the Munich Agreement was very consequential, I don’t think, though, that President Biden’s problem regarding Russia and Ukraine is very comparable to that situation. I’m just yakking about it because I like history.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: I LOVE being read to!
okay, so audio book is out.
edit: it sounds like the laptop is your choice. Am i right in thinking that you have a mac laptop? i also bought the audio book through iBook so I know you can do that.
Roger Moore
@Geminid:
Exactly. People opposed to any kind of negotiation trot out Munich any time anyone suggests talking rather than fighting. They demand we accept only complete capitulation; anything less is appeasement and will lead inevitably to all kinds of terrible consequences.
SpaceUnit
@Geminid:
Me too. I’m just making chit-chat.
Ken
@SpaceUnit: Yet no one has even mentioned an invasion of space lizards, which was the variant Harry Turtledove (“the acknowledged master of alternative history”) chose.
SpaceUnit
@Ken:
I hate space lizards.
Lum’s Better Half
We need to make it clear to the Ukrainian government that agreeing to comrade Putin’s generous requests is the only peaceful path available. We should also make it clear that no one will be coming to their rescue if they continue with their intransigent belligerence.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: I’ll try again with the book.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: It’s really easy to get an electronic copy for iBook.
phdesmond
@WaterGirl:
i guess no one wanted to talk about Gorman’s poem in the last few hours. :-)
steverinoCT
@zhena gogolia: Late to the game, here, but I love my Kindle reader– the real one, not the tablet. You can read it in full sun, or at night without a reader light; but most importantly for your situation it is very light and small, much easier to hold than a tablet. I have many many real books, and have been supplementing them with a copy on the Kindle (I re-read a lot).
A reader costs money, of course, but it is worth looking IMO. I have the “origami” leather cover that doubles as a bookstand, but even when I take it off, I just prop the Kindle in my regular bookstand, NBD.