Pfizer's antiviral pill—Paxlovid—becomes the 1st US-authorized at-home Covid treatment. The medication, which heads off the infection's worst effects, was approved by the FDA Wednesday. This milestone comes as US cases, hospitalizations & deaths are rising https://t.co/1MiyuY8bRw
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 22, 2021
This is great news! Unfortunately, my inner Eeyore has some side concerns…
1) Idiots will use it as an excuse not to get vaccinated / boosted, because Hey, if I get sick, I’ll just take a pill!
2) Overstrained medical facilities will be besieged by sufferers demanding The Magic Pill, many of them well past the effectiveness window, and some of whom won’t actually have covid.
3) Too many patients will stop taking the 30-pills-over-5 days too soon, because they feel so much better on Day Three, or they don’t like the side effects… and that will lead to further mutated strains of the virus.
Large holiday gatherings in U.S. not safe even if boosted, Fauci says https://t.co/ed0FAXouLF pic.twitter.com/Js49Dx3mmC
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 23, 2021
… “There are many of these parties that have 30, 40, 50 people in which you do not know the vaccination status of individuals. Those are the kind of functions in the context of Omicron that you do not want to go to,” Fauci said at a White House briefing.
Early evidence indicates Omicron is less severe than the Delta variant, said Fauci, citing studies from South Africa and Scotland, but warned Americans must remain cautious.
“This is good news. However, we must wait to see what happens in our own population which has its own demographic considerations,” he said…
The seven-day average of COVID-19 cases in the United States rose 25% from the previous week to about 149,300 cases per day, said U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky, with average daily deaths up 3.5% at 1,200.
Omicron represents approximately 73% of cases across the country, said Walensky, and as high as 90% of cases in some areas, such as the eastern Atlantic states, parts of the Midwest, South, and northern Pacific states…
The U.S. government will have 265,000 treatment courses of Pfizer Inc’s (PFE.N) COVID-19 anti-viral treatment available by January and 10 million by late summer, said White House COVID-19 response coordinator Jeff Zients…
The government will provide any resources Pfizer needs for production and will distribute treatments to states and localities at no charge as soon as they are delivered, he said.
A monster new case wave is in the making. which will exceed last December/January. We're dependent on our immunity wall (vaccines and prior Covid) to defend against Omicron's impact. Well over 2,000 deaths today were from Delta infections. https://t.co/dP8rzvdFPY
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 23, 2021
1/ How well do the rapid antigen tests pick up on Omicron? with @PBS @NewsHour's @TheStephSy: pic.twitter.com/vbqeCAoxZQ
— Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA (@celinegounder) December 22, 2021
Not everybody tests, but just about everybody… uses the sewer system:
wastewater testing highest level in US covid cases since beginning of pandemic pic.twitter.com/q2k3xkn2Tj
— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) December 22, 2021
======
Omicron vs Delta
Scotland: 60% less hospitalizations
England: 40-45% less hospitalizations
South Africa: ~70% less hospitalizations
All adjusted, all point estimates
But that's all very good.https://t.co/VXraBQwJ1v
by @BoothWilliam pic.twitter.com/j5XajGKRjb— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 22, 2021
A northern Chinese city of 13 million is on lockdown after a spike of just over 200 COVID-19 cases, weeks before the country hosts the Winter Olympics. It’s the tightest restrictions since China locked down 11 million in Wuhan in 2020.https://t.co/ex4EtBS1sj
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 23, 2021
Japan rules out changes to COVID-19 curbs despite Omicron https://t.co/GqPqt6Lvsz pic.twitter.com/EyCvaB18j0
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 23, 2021
Australia's COVID-19 testing facilities were severely stretched amid a record surge in cases and as tens of thousands of domestic travelers thronged the centers to get test results necessary to travel interstate for Christmas https://t.co/RCBh4mTgS7 pic.twitter.com/GnYRST48kd
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 23, 2021
Moscow has reported a 60% rise in coronavirus cases in the city over the last 24 hourshttps://t.co/62Z4pDOghz
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) December 23, 2021
Wearing masks adorned with puppies, flowers or superheros, French children 5 to 11 line up to get their vaccine shots on the first day they were eligible, all to help ward off the omicron variant. https://t.co/nsB2UtklDB
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) December 22, 2021
Booster cabs: In Greece, health services are using taxi companies in a race to get older people fully inoculated against COVID-19 amid the rise of the omicron variant. @SrdjanTV joined a team of health visitors in Athens.
Full story: https://t.co/RLHYrmlKSq pic.twitter.com/Fkj8lsjcQo
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) December 22, 2021
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is convening a special Cabinet meeting Thursday to pass a law that makes it mandatory to wear masks outdoors amid a record surge in COVID-19 cases. https://t.co/ytn1DVUOEn
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) December 22, 2021
UK reports more than 100,000 daily Covid cases for the first time since mass-testing began during the pandemic https://t.co/R52zFj81pb
— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) December 22, 2021
Scotland reports fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations with Omicron https://t.co/D1tNqo7lnR pic.twitter.com/8DI6WMxaBh
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 23, 2021
Wales to introduce new Covid restrictions from 26 December including rule of six in hospitality, cinemas and theatres and table service in pubs and restaurantshttps://t.co/FImSTIRczo
— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) December 22, 2021
COVID update:
New study from South Africa says patients infected with the #omicron variant are 80 percent less likely to require hospitalization than those with other strains.https://t.co/7ZcDZc7UB0— Jim Roberts (@nycjim) December 22, 2021
Nigeria destroys 1 million vaccine doses due to expiration dates. A top health official accused wealthy nations of hoarding vaccines, then waiting too late to donate them. https://t.co/q0g2AMCycN
— AP Africa (@AP_Africa) December 22, 2021
Canada expands pandemic relief programmes amid Omicron surge https://t.co/rg0OX4lRG5
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 23, 2021
=======
With #omicron, many vaccinated people will at some point test positive. Here are some pointers to keep in mind—breakthrough symptoms usually don’t resemble the severity of Covid that some unvaccinated people get. Usually symptoms are milder https://t.co/sq0Zn7g8J4
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 23, 2021
Eager to book an appointment to get an #Omicron booster? It's not clear that day will come, @US_FDA's Peter Marks told @NicholasFlorko. https://t.co/bl8tfGjKip
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 22, 2021
In the lab, immune cells put up a strong fight against Omicron, suggesting that vaccines will be able to prevent the worst outcomes of the virus variant. https://t.co/rN0HPAqUDf
— NYT Health (@NYTHealth) December 19, 2021
.@trvb uses a Covid "freaking out" scale to assess pandemic developments. The Delta wave was a 6. He's currently unsure where #Omicron falls, saying it's somewhere between a 3 and a (gulp) 8. https://t.co/gzrxm1ofb9
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 22, 2021
Do home-tests work against #Omicron ?
From @US_FDA :
"Preliminary laboratory studies with heat-inactivated omicron samples suggest that the Abbott BinaxNOW and Quidel QuickVue antigen tests are able to detect the omicron variant with similar performance as with other variants." pic.twitter.com/zOyQkDhrVb— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 22, 2021
A rapid innate immune response in children protects them from Covid, a new genetic study has found. Fundamental differences in immune responses & blood clotting in children & adults explains why kids may more frequently have a less serious outcome https://t.co/kwi3bLG096 pic.twitter.com/Wss1Yf3p2P
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 22, 2021
How deadly will future variants be? The sudden emergence of #Omicron, confirms that SARSCoV2 strains will continue to emerge. To make sense of the rapid evolution, Los Alamos Nat'l Lab scientists created a way to estimate the strength of future variants https://t.co/y3YbYdPcUY
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 22, 2021
=======
At least 140,790 covid deaths have been reported in U.S. nursing homes, according to the latest data from the @CDCgov. #KHNaging
?: @youngsamantha https://t.co/SfEDhbAWwT
— Kaiser Health News (@KHNews) December 19, 2021
This has happened so rapidly in NYC that everybody I know has a friend/co-workers/family member that is sick. For the fully vaxed the #Omicron "sick" is a really bad cold. The pace of its spread here is dizzying. https://t.co/KvPRW7i7rD
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 23, 2021
California's political divide is east (RED) vs west (BLUE). With each wave of #COVID19 that split reveals wider disparities in hospitalization and death rates on a per capita basis — especially devastating in the San Joaquin Valley eastern (GOP-heavy) area. https://t.co/WTRfLq1YFq
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 22, 2021
We face one immediate, fixable crisis: The vaccinated elites of the GOP succeeding in worsening the pandemic with anti-vax propaganda.
Imagine if the press addressed this with the laser seriousness they apply to inflation and a supply chain crisis that never happened.
— LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) December 22, 2021
Speaking of ‘supply chain crises’…
oh no https://t.co/l2tzdhfPDg
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) December 23, 2021
… According to the lawsuit, the vaccine mandate will ultimately force the release of “dangerous ICE detainees being held at county jails across Ohio.”
“We have sheriffs that are going to lose a lot of talented deputies to this mandate, and they’ll ultimately give up their contracts to house ICE detainees rather than see that happen,” Yost said. “Forcing that kind of choice on people who dedicate their lives to keeping our communities safe creates a needless situation in which everyone loses.”
The coalition of attorneys general said the potential workforce loss poses a “significant threat to state economies, as it could exacerbate ongoing gaps in the supply chain.”..
Please for the love of god just read the room Sweden https://t.co/MB5fQDVPnW
— Tess Owen (@misstessowen) December 22, 2021
Cermet
Pfizer’s pill is an absolute game changer but ONLY if produced quickly and in really mass quantities. The Defense act should be imposed and a massive system setup to produce enough pills – seriously, this is simple manufacturing – this isn’t creating a nano-oil drop with a complex mRNA molecule but just a molecular compound that uses simple organic chemistry to create that many labs can mfg. if allowed!
Baud
Americans are fat. You can day it, Fauci. We all know.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
There were 568 new laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 on 12/22.
There were 186 new positive home tests reported on 12/22.
That’s double what we had the day before.
raven
I’m surprised the anti-footballers haven’t chimed in with this
How College Athletics Is Bracing for Its Latest Battle With Omicron, COVID-19While the latest coronavirus surge may see a return of stricter protocols, others believe a more relaxed approach is needed to counter the new strain.
Baud
@Cermet:
Today show just said that it’ll take a while to ramp up production.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 3,510 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,731,713 cases. It also reports 29 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 31,221 deaths – 1.14% of the cumulative reported total, 1.16% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.91.
255 confirmed cases are in ICU, 121 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 4,998 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,652,585 patients recovered – 97.1% of the cumulative reported total.
Six new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 6,094 clusters. 231 clusters are currently active; 5,863 clusters are now inactive.
3,415 new cases today are local infections. 95 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 177,272 doses of vaccine on 22nd December: 3,217 first doses, 4,675 second doses, and 169,380 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 56,394,970 doses administered: 25,967,047 first doses, 25,567,871 second doses, and 5,055,934 booster doses. 79.5% of the population have received their first dose, 78.3% their second dose, and 15.5% their booster dose.
Kay
That’s wild.
OzarkHillbilly
Plague rats keeping their communities “safe”. Right.
debbie
In just a few weeks! Fatal or not, that’s still very frightening.
Betty Cracker
@Cermet: Same with rapid testing kits. I’m not sure why we don’t have sufficient supplies now, but whatever needs to be done to speed things up and stockpile test supplies needs to happen now.
opiejeanne
@Baud: We are also an older demographic than the population of South Africa.
Baud
@opiejeanne:
But more vaccinated.
Robert Sneddon
@Cermet: It’s a pill that has to be taken during a tight time window when the infected person realises they ARE infected rather than ignoring the symptoms (if any) as many people do. Treatment is a course of thirty pills taken at the correct time intervals over a period of five days, something someone zonked out on other OTC drugs and/or coughing their lungs up is going to be hard-pressed to manage without being, say, in hospital with overworked healthcare workers administering the doses.
It’s another tool in the toolbox that might help a percent or two of sufferers survive what could be a fatal disease or reduce severity and maybe prevent long-term complications. That’s all.
Here in the UK antivirals approved for use against COVID-19 are targeted at vulnerable individuals, the sort of people with compromised immune systems or for whom vaccination is contraindicated. They’re not considered a “game changer”.
Robert Sneddon
@Betty Cracker:
Most lateral-flow test kits are manufactured in China AIUI — certainly the boxes of test kits I’ve obtained (free of charge) from my local pharmacy here in the UK are labelled as being manufactured there.
How much slack there is in the Chinese production lines to accept a sudden order for 500 million extra kits and deliver it within a few weeks is debatable. Setting up local test-kit manufacturing in the US would probably be a better thing to do, same with manufacturing PPE and other necessities, but I’m not in charge of that.
NorthLeft12
As others have stated, I don’t see the anti-viral medicines as “game changers” due to the practical difficulties around their proper use in a home environment. They will be a useful tool to be used in a small number of cases. Every little bit helps I guess.
Ken
For some reason I’m never interviewed for this kind of report, even though I can say “I don’t know, there really isn’t enough evidence yet” just as well as the next guy.
YY_Sima Qian
On 12/22 China reported 71 new domestic confirmed (none previously asymptomatic) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 16 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 327 active domestic confirmed cases in the region.
At Heilongjiang Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Shaanxi Province reported 63 new domestic confirmed cases. There are currently 212 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Shanghai Municipality 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 1 residential compound is currently at Medium Risk.
At Jiangsu Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Nanjing) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Wuxi) remaining.
Zhejiang Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 488 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
Tianjin Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain from Shaoxing in Zhenjiang.
Suzhou in Anhui Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain from Zhejiang. 1 village is currently at Medium Risk.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Fangcheng. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed case (all at Fangcheng) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic case (at Chongzuo) in the province.
Guangdong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. There currently are 27 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Chengdu in Sichuan Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, a quarantine hotel worker.
Xiamen in Fujian Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.
At Dalian in Liaoning Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed cases remaining.
At Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province the last 4 active confirmed cases recovered.
At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Chongqing Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Henan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Zhoukou, a party of 4 that had driven from Xi’an in Shaanxi on 12/19, who had tested negative prior to leaving. There currently are 30 active domestic confirmed (28 at Zhengzhou & 2 at Zhoukou) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Zhoukou).
Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 36 active domestic confirmed & 18 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture.
Imported Cases
On 12/22, China reported 29 new imported confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 17 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 42 confirmed cases recovered (17 imported), 23 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (21 imported) & 1 was reclassified as confirmed case (imported), & 2,279 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,823 active confirmed cases in the country (651 imported), 10 in serious condition (4 imported), 496 active asymptomatic cases (458 imported), 3 suspect cases (all imported). 56,509 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 12/22, 2,719.459M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 12.783M doses in the past 48 hrs.
On 12/23, Hong Kong reported 2 new positive cases, both imported (1 from the UK & the other is a flight crew).
Kay
I think the story of the new far Right court(s) will be how the religious Right is really driving the agenda:
The “New Right” stuff is interesting to me because it’s the elite Right. It’s not a mystery we see it flooding their courts before we see it in campaigns. It’s top down.
Baud
@Kay:
Stop blackmailing me.
Robert Sneddon
@Kay: New-born children are very different, biologically speaking from toddlers who are again different from teens who are different from adolescents and young adults. It’s the reason vaccine testing and approval is done in smaller and smaller age ranges — ages 5 to 11 have been approved for vaccination in the US AIUI and the next age range under investigation is ages 2 through 5.
Discovering that there are intrinsic reasons children don’t suffer the same effects from COVID-19 infections as older people isn’t really a surprise. The problem for society is that less-sick infected children can pass the disease on to their older and more vulnerable family members, in part because many people insist that schools, a plague Mixmaster environment at the best of times, must remain open at all costs even if it puts Granny and Uncle Joe at risk of dangerous secondary infections.
Betty Cracker
@Robert Sneddon: Even the crappy, incompetent Trump admin identified offshore manufacturing as an obstacle to production of all sorts of medical assets, including testing kits. So hopefully the mostly competent Biden admin has taken steps to rectify that over the last 11 months.
I’m not an expert on any of this stuff, but it seems like common sense that you’d want to make testing kits widely available and free so people who are inclined to do so can make sensible choices. It might also be important if antiviral drugs have to be taken early in the course of the illness, which seems to be the case. Home testing could prevent delays in seeking treatment.
debbie
@Kay:
New Right = Nazi Right. Stop sugar-coating things. ;)
New Deal democrat
Cases in the US rose over 10,000 to 165,000, equal to the worst of the Delta outbreak. Deaths are still only at 1300.
Sharply exponential rises continued all along the Northeast cooridor in NY, NJ, RI, DC, VA, and MD (which has resumed reporting). Less of a rise in CT and MA. Only PA is not participating.
Big rises elsewhere in AL, CA, FL, GA, HI, IL, LA, MS, NV, NC, OH, PR. SC, TN, TX, and WA. Smaller rise in OR.
Generally only rural States have avoided big Omicron increases so far.
Most noteworthy is that in 8 days PR, with an 80%+ full vaccination rate, has gone from 4 to 40 cases per 100,000.
Canada is also having exponential increase. Cases in the U.K. also continued to rise, but London May have peaked. Also Denmark, an early outbreak, actually decreased today. South Africa decreased for the 5th straight day. Cases in the Gauteng area, epicenter of the first outbreak, are down 70%!
The signs are accumulating that Omicron peaks within about 30 to 40 days of onset. That suggests an early January peak in the US.
Trevor Bedford’s trend projection shows an equal number of Omicron and Delta infections in the US at about 75,000 each as of today. Vaccinations will not stop this wave of Omicron. The best the US can do is try to keep its hospital system from being completely overwhelmed.
JPL
@Kay: I think the plan is to weaken OSHA
Also, what Debbie said.
Amir Khalid
The English Premier League has announced the Covid-19 related postponement of two matches on its Boxing Day programme, Liverpool-Leeds United and Wolverhampton Wanderers-Watford.
WereBear
@Baud:
We pay a lot for junk food, when all is said and done.
Kay
@Robert Sneddon:
Thanks. I insist that schools stay open so we’re probably not on the same page there :)
If I were Queen I would have shut down adult venues to allow schools to remain open – I would have pushed more of the sacrifice to adults. And I would make the sacrifice! You tell me I can’t go shopping or whatever because we’re prioritizing schools I’m on board. I would have moved heaven and earth to keep them open, even if it meant closing just about everything else.
I was kind of disappointed a mayor didn’t try it- be pro-covid mitigation BUT prioritize keeping schools open. I thought there was an opening there for someone to get creative and we could use that in the next pandemic.
I just think they need to be in school. I think they’ve been harmed disproportionally to adults.
Amir Khalid
@Kay:
That’s frightening news.
OzarkHillbilly
@JPL: They have already weakened OSHA. It’s little more than a toothless chihuahua these days. What they want is to destroy labor law in it’s entirety.
NotMax
I thought Jared fixed it.
D’oh.
//
Kay
@Robert Sneddon:
Ventilation systems, masks, vaccines, alternate hours so fewer of them are in the building, anything and everything, but don’t close schools. I still wonder how a real priority on keeping schools open with other adult sacrifices to make up for it would have played politically. But no politician tried it. We just had the Right screaming at schools and blaming them and insisting there was no risk – we had no pro covid mitigation and pro-school stays open contingent. We needed one. Interestingly, BIDEN is in that camp, but he doesn’t have a lot of company.
YY_Sima Qian
All of Xi’an is entering lock down (as opposed to Shaoxing/Ningbo in Zhejiang, Zhengzhou/Zhoukou in Henan, Lanzhou/Tianshui in Gansu, Heihe/Harbin in Heilongjiang, for example, in recent Delta outbreaks) because nearly 2 weeks into the outbreak > 50% of daily incidents are found via mass screening or at fever clinics. This indicates sustained community transmission. Daily incident rate is still rising, not yet reached inflection point. The cases are also spread over several districts across the city, though spillover outside of the city has been limited, except a secondary outbreak seeded at Dongguan in Guangdong. In recent days new cases are popping up outside of the locked down or restricted movement zones, as symptomatic persons visit fever clinics. This indicates that the authorities have not contained the outbreak geographically.
For whatever reason, the municipal authorities has not been able to quickly identify transmission chains. The presumed index case, a quarantine hotel worker infected by an imported confirmed case returning from Pakistan on 12/4, was found via weekly screening on 12/9, but no other traced close contacts had tested positive, nor did any other worker at the quarantine hotel outside of the case’s roommate. On 12/12 a case was found at a fever clinic, but again no other traced close contacts tested positive. On the next day, Dalang Township at Dongguan in Guangdong found 2 cases among people who returned from Xi’an (on 12/4) then discovering a cluster there seeded by the cases. It is difficult to imagine how the 2 cases who traveled domestically to Dongguan on 12/4 could have came in contact w/ the International arrivals from Pakistans. No other connections have been found among the 4 cases. Xi’an then discovered a cluster at a local university (20+ cases in the 1st generation of transmission). Phylogenetic analysis shows all of the cases to be in the same tree from a single source, but epidemiological investigation has not been successful in establishing the actual transmission in the majority of the cases.
The city has completed the 1st round of mass screening & is conducting a 2nd round.
However, the lock down in Xi’an is not the toughest since the 1st one in Wuhan, per se. 1 person from each household is allowed to exit the residential compound every 2 days to purchase daily necessities. During outbreaks at Ürumqi in Xinjiang in Oct. 2020 (in fact, all of Xinjiang went into lock down), Shijiazhuang in Hebei in Jan. 2021, Wangkui County in Heilongjiang in Jan. 2021, & Yangzhou in Jiangsu in Jul. 2021, each city was locked down to similar level of restrictions, w/ certain areas where residents were not allowed to leave their homes, & daily necessities were delivered to the door (that is the Wuhan level lock down).
Enhanced Voting Techniques
To give you an idea what it’s like in bio-tech manufacturing right now – I just got a 20% of my yearly salary as a retention bonus and my nephew got a job offer with unlimited vacation and sick leave, that’s how bad the worker shortage is. There isn’t much capacity to ramp up.
If anyone has a friend who has been feeling shut out of the work force because of the BS with the resume screening or what not, tell them to give bio-tech a shot.
mrmoshpotato
Yeah, seriously! ?♂️
mrmoshpotato
@Kay: “The Supreme Court is on the ballot.”
What the? What fresh bullshit is this? “Well, ya know, preventing the spread of disease isn’t really a compelling argument!”
mrmoshpotato
@Kay:
Damn strip clubs keeping the schools closed!
mrmoshpotato
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I would be out sick on vacation all. the. time. ?
frosty
@Kay: I recently read Michael Lewis’s book on the pandemic. Two things were interesting. First, the universal dismissal among epidemiologists of the CDC as a useful agency for actively fighting a pandemic (academics writing papers not stopping infections) and second the push to close schools. All their modeling showed that kids were a major vector.
I think your perspective is important, especially your discussion yesterday of how much of their life they lose with just a year or two of disruption. We need to take that into account.
WereBear
@mrmoshpotato: I laughed, then sighed, since it’s essentially true.
I do that a lot lately.
Did get boosted and got an appointment for the Mister. A Series of Unfortunate Events got us into different chains for our vaccine records, but any port in a storm.
mrmoshpotato
@WereBear: I don’t think that’s what was meant by “adult venues” – at least not exclusively.
Glad to hear you got your booster and that MrWereBear has his scheduled.
Jinchi
Honest question: Just what does the expiration date mean?
I’m not faulting the Nigerian health agency, but 1 million doses is enough to vaccinate everyone in a medium sized city. And if I were desperate, I’d be tempted to get all the doses in arms even if the effectiveness dropped from 90% to 60%. Unless there were likely complications or dangerous side effects.
Are there?
PAM Dirac
@Cermet:
I count 5 chiral centers. It might be simpler to manufacture than the vaccine, but I doubt the synthesis is simple and it is still going to take significant attention to detail to do it right.
PAM Dirac
@Robert Sneddon:
The EUA for the Pfizer drug specifically states is is only to be used for people at high risk:
The footnote for defining high risk points to a CDC web page.
Robert Sneddon
@PAM Dirac: I’ve seen it claimed (no references, sadly) that at least one antiviral formulation forces mutations on SARS-CoV-2 viral particles in an infected individual. This is intended to prevent the virus particle reproducing successfully but it might in very rare cases cause an evolutionarily successful mutation which both allows the virus particle to reproduce and possibly create a new significant variation which spreads readily to others.
No-one has yet identified a Patient Zero for the Omicron variant but it’s been suggested (again, it is not certain) that this variant evolved in someone who was immunodeficient and suffered from an extended but mild COVID-19 infection perhaps lasting weeks. Omicron has as many as 30 genetic differences as previous in-the-wild versions of SARS-CoV-2 such as Delta which had only had a few differences from their immediate ancestors. Having this radical evolutionary change happen in a single individual is more likely than a stepwise series of changes in different people or animals that weren’t detected. It’s not proven though.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@mrmoshpotato: I know lol But, Engineer, so he still needs to meet project goals. In other words the bosses are going to worry about how he does it.
Fair Economist
@Kay: It’s been demonstrated repeatedly that COVID can be controlled reasonably well with public health measures as long as they are applied consistently. San Francisco never had to close a school for Delta, and most Delta closures elsewhere were in Red areas with lots of antimaskers and often legal antimasking. In addition, all the Omicron superspreader events so far have been in unmasked events. So the schools can stay open.
Historically schools have been a major flu vector. But that’s without masks. As long as the kids wear masks, I think it will be different.
I have to agree with you on schools over bars. Seems a “Duh, yeah!” to me. But as you sat authorities often don’t support that sensible approach.
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: I don’t see how China can host the Olympics without massive lockdowns. They have to bring in thousands of competitors from all over the world possibly carrying a ferociously infective virus which is often asymptomatic, right around when it’s at a worldwide peak. I wish them the best, but that is an insanely tough task.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — the problem with the new cases data yesterday has been fixed and the numbers for the 22nd of December were updated to 5,967. Today’s figures are supposed to include the uncounted difference (about 3,500) but they’re only reporting 6,215 new cases. I suspect the data counts of positive reports from the testing centres are lagging due to the increased levels of testing going on. This is still double the rate of a few weeks ago, pre-Omicron.
The hospitalisations (540), ICU bed occupancy (38) and death rates (11) are not ramping up but they’re not falling from the September peak any more. Booster vaccinations continue at a high rate with almost two-thirds of 18+ adults having received their third or booster shot but the numbers of first and second vaccinations especially in the younger population continue to be lackluster.
Fair Economist
@Kay: Several California counties went through Delta using general masking and vax requirements while keeping schools open. Not an acid test to be fair because we never got to the point where we closed the bars. I think we would close the bars first if we got there now, though.
Matt McIrvin
@Robert Sneddon:
That is the Merck pill, molnupravir. Enthusiasm for it greatly diminished with reports that its effectiveness is unimpressive.
J R in WV
@Cermet:
Exactly how do you know that this is simple manufacturing? Simple organic chemistry? Have you read the patent application? Read a complete engineering description of the manufacturing process?
Because I extremely doubt it is simple manufacturing…
smith
USA Today has done an investigation of excess deaths that were probably caused by covid, but were not identified that way. They found that in rural red areas, this is quite deliberate, with coroners and medical examiners not bothering to look carefully at cause of death, in many cases just accepting what the family tells them over the phone. Some rural counties apparently had massive, mysterious increases in “heart attack” deaths in 2020.
The amazing thing is that, even with that big ol’ thumb on the scale, official rural covid deaths are still much higher than those in metro areas. The true extent of the difference must be enormous. Denial is a wonderful drug, but I wonder how long the Goobers can keep convincing themselves that their communities haven’t been devastated by covid.
Gravenstone
@PAM Dirac: With that many chiral centers, I expect that the process throughput is painfully low as well.
PAM Dirac
@Matt McIrvin:
Yes and I think the suspicion of mutagenic potential was from an Ames test. Problem is the Ames test is not a particularly specific test for mutagenic potential in animals. There are more specific tests and molnupravir was not mutagenic in those, so it is not clear that mutagenesis has any relevance to decision making regarding molnupravir. In any event, I think you are correct that the limited efficacy is the main reason for limited enthusiasm. I was going to say that I found it interesting the the Pfizer EUA was approved and the Merck hasn’t been yet, but the Merck EUA showed up on the FDA web site just in the last few minutes. The list of patient eligibility requirements is the same as the Pfizer drug except for the addition of:
PAM Dirac
Just to pull this out to make it clear, the Merck pill has been granted an EUA by the FDA. A quick reading of the EUA shows it is mostly the same as the Pfizer one, but I’ve noticed two interesting differences:
They have to report no later than Sept 30, 2022
Mart
You can’t make me get no shabby EUA vaccine. I’ve got Covid? Get me that EUA pill now.
PAM Dirac
@Gravenstone: For sure. It would take a highly skilled and experienced group to get it going well. I don’t know how much of that is sitting around unused.
Robert Sneddon
@smith: One factor to take into consideration is the age range in rural vs. urban areas. In First-World nations like the US the urban areas like large cities and conurbations are magnets for young people to move to for work, further education, life experience (clubs, cinemas etc.), often draining rural areas of their younger populations. It’s not really surprising that rural areas have age-related deaths (heart disease, slow-progressing cancer etc.) in excess of the national averages.
We see this in reverse here in Scotland where it’s the older people in rural areas who have taken up vaccination for COVID-19 at rates much higher than the cities and large towns where many younger adults live.
Another Scott
@smith:
From your link:
I think this is the biggest part of the story.
My mom died in a hospital in Ohio in 2016. Because there was some question about whether a mixup in her treatment caused her death (she got 2 doses of a drug when she should have only gotten 1), she had to have an autopsy. Because everyone who dies short of “natural causes” has to have an autopsy, and the state was in the midst of the opioid/opiate epidemic that was killing lots of young people, it took 6 weeks for her autopsy to be completed. (As everyone knew, the mixup didn’t cause her death.) The same thing is probably happening with Covid. The system is trying to find some way to cope.
As usual, there aren’t any quick and easy solutions. And lots of families are suffering additional stress as a consequence, and we’re not getting accurate data to adjust policies and implementations to combat the pandemic more efficiently. :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Miss Bianca
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Interesting! What are the requirements for bio-tech positions, tho? I confess I am very ignorant about the field.
PAM Dirac
@PAM Dirac: Two other Merck specific requirements:
report by June 30, 2022
report by March 31, 2022
Sounds like FDA is making sure that before any full approval there will be some actual clinical data on mutagenic potential.
Bill Arnold
@Baud:
It’s possible also that South Africa has a much higher level of previously-infected people. This would tend to blunt the average severity even if it (partial immunity from previous infections) didn’t stop many initial infections.
I’m waiting for the US numbers on severe cases and deaths.
Also, there are no indications yet that the Omicron does not infect parts of other organs the same as other ACE2-using SARS-CoV-2 variants; the long-term sequelae <i>may</i> be similar excepting reduced levels of lung damage. Some months of experience will make the risks of infection clearer.
IMO China is making a bet on reducing their national burden of long-COVID (bad COVID-19 sequelae) relative to other countries. We shall see, and their effort even in the short term has been beneficial for them; if you look at the The Economist excess death estimates, for China the error bars include the possibility of negative excess deaths, which could be cause by e.g. much reduced air pollution for many months. (Downside is a one-party tech-panopticon-enforced police state.)
smith
@Robert Sneddon: We also have the old people getting vaxxed at a much higher rate than younger ones, even in red states, so that doesn’t completely explain the rural-urban difference in deaths. This was an analysis of excess deaths compared to previous years, so the fact that rural areas skew older was already baked in. Looking the huge otherwise inexplicable increase in “heart attacks” in 2020 as well as the cultural resistance to acknowledging covid (and the fact that rural coroners don’t have the resources or motivation to look closely at what’s reported to them), in my opinion the most likely explanation is a lot of unreported covid deaths in rural areas.
Robert Sneddon
120,000 new cases of COVID-19 in the UK just announced at 16:00 GMT, another new record and well beyond the anticipated peak of 100,000 cases expected thanks to the spread of the Omicron variant. Deaths and hospitalisations are not soaring (yet). There are yet more problems and delays with data reporting due to the load so some information may not be up to date. Reporting from the various health authorities is going to be intermittent over the holiday weekend and they will be playing catchup on Wednesday next week.
Brachiator
@Robert Sneddon:
The world is damn lucky that (so far) Omicron appears to be less deadly than Delta.
If Boris Johnson decides that there needs to be a lockdown, it will come too late to do any good. Meanwhile, the anger of Conservative Party MPs who oppose lockdowns , mask mandates and other aggressive mitigation efforts are intensifying.
As is the case with the actions of red state governors here in the US, the objections of Tory MPs are not backed up by science or even common sense.
One thing that I don’t understand is that some UK commentators believe that Labour should be “opposition” no matter what. So, they imply that Labour should have voted against the government with respect to the measures requiring Covid passes and some compulsory use of masks, even though the science advisors recommended this.
Ksmiami
@smith: In the 1918 Pandemic, whole rural towns were wiped out. It’s not a well covered part of US history but it happened.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: Winter Olympics might have been doable w/ just Delta, but probably w/o spectators in the stands (at least from the general population). Not only are all athletes & delegations in a tight bubble, so are all of the Chinese (and foreign) workers & volunteers. They will be isolated from the population through the duration, & they will undergo 2 weeks of centralized quarantine before rejoining the community. Only fully vaxxed people can join the Olympic bubble w/o quarantine. Everyone in the bubble will be tested daily.
Omicron Variant has changed the game, though. Definition of the “fully vaxxed” will need to change to boosted. The higher rate of breakthrough infection (even among the recently boosted) relative to previous variants will mean fully vaxxed athletes entering the bubble infected. I anticipate stories of asymptomatic athletes missing the Games stuck in medical isolation, or having to evacuating from China due to testing positive.
Robert Sneddon
@Robert Sneddon: The problem with lockdowns anywhere, in the UK or in the US is the old military adage they teach officer cadets on day one — “Never give an order you are certain will not be obeyed”.
All politicians serve at the will of their electorate and the electorates everywhere are not up for another hard lockdown, especially around the “holiday season”. Telling everyone “Christmas is cancelled” isn’t going to stop people visiting friends and family, eating out, drinking, partying etc. It just makes the government look powerless and inept if they were to say “close everything” and nobody listened. Ask commenter Kay about closing schools again in a second hard lockdown and remember she’s one of the rational ones on this, never mind the Patriot Eagle Freedom anti-vaccination types.
Back when this all kicked off, an epidemiologist who had worked with Ebola outbreaks in Africa said “You get one hard lockdown. One.” We already had a hard lockdown, we don’t get another.
TKH
Should anyone here wish to obtain some real information on the difficulties with the production of paxlovid at scale rather than listen to the garbage that the usual bloviators that infest these coronavirus update comment sections are pushing, please look here. Non-technical but on point
https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/1474060324194160643?s=20
Another Scott
@TKH: Thanks for the pointer.
This thread is probably a more direct starting point.
Cheers,
Scott.