Here, from terrific @carlzimmer & his @nytimes team, is a remarkable 3-D interactive that will answer most of your questions about #SARSCoV2 and #DeltaVariant & #Omicron –viewing fun for the whole family.https://t.co/AdTv9wqwy6
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 5, 2021
Dr. Fauci, to @jaketapper on CNN: “Thus far, though it’s too early to make definitive statements about [omicron], it does not look like there is a great deal of severity to it. Thus far the signals are encouraging on the severity.”
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) December 5, 2021
it's like everyone is scared to embrace good news https://t.co/pFNgBD775E
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) December 6, 2021
The US is poised to soon surpass more than 200M people being fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. CDC reports 198M were fully vaccinated as of Saturday, accounting for ~60% of the population. >45M had also received a booster https://t.co/MQISdABsKF
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 5, 2021
The US is averaging more than 100k new Covid cases a day, the highest level in 2 months. The 7-day average of new cases was 121,437 as of Saturday, according to Johns Hopkins Univ. The last time the US topped the 100k-cases-a-day mark was early October https://t.co/nm0IQZUmNa
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 6, 2021
Key word is "found" — you can't find what you don't look for, or that for which your search is lame. https://t.co/vunAdhbJ5e
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 5, 2021
Senator Chuck Schumer urged Americans to seek out free, at-home COVID-19 test kits that are being distributed at community health centers. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has spread to about one-third of U.S. states, U.S. health officials said https://t.co/WaIWWssaFc pic.twitter.com/KwlYKZs6ah
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 6, 2021
Lots of folks in US aren't sure where/how to get rapid tests. The uncertainty makes everything worse. Similarly, in Paris I could walk into most pharmacies and get a PCR on demand, results within 1-2 hours at most. https://t.co/0MWeXueZfo
— Meghan O'Rourke (@meghanor) December 6, 2021
======
Despite #OmnicronVariant's global spread, the WHO says there are no Omicron deaths so far. The agency warns it may take weeks to assess how infectious the variant is, whether it causes more severe illness & how effective antivirals/vaccines are against it https://t.co/NSN6Ysf3gc pic.twitter.com/hSeAzZo8TD
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 6, 2021
Nepal detects first two cases of Omicron variant – health ministry https://t.co/zG2tpU2Ibp pic.twitter.com/JjGoSM5ALn
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 6, 2021
S.Korea's COVID-19 rules put some vaccinated foreigners in limbo https://t.co/Y3hZspLtu1 pic.twitter.com/QDlppHfJCv
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 6, 2021
Thailand detects first case of Omicron variant https://t.co/Dyow6YI3KC pic.twitter.com/rhSOXBeyIf
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 6, 2021
the pandemic has brought to the surface a lot of humanity's worst instincts about foreigners imo https://t.co/pKog6kW3hb
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) December 6, 2021
A jump in cases of #OmicronVariant is putting Europe on edge. Dozens of new cases of the Omicron variant were reported in Britain & Denmark Sunday, adding to increases across Europe & fueling fears the new variant has already spread widely https://t.co/IsLZd9AUHQ
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 6, 2021
France's Covid-19 incidence rate, the number of infections weekly per 100,000, passed 300 nationwide – 6 x the country's alert level of 50 in October. But that rate is 650 for children aged 6 to 10, their highest since the start of the pandemic. https://t.co/gtXcwOzhp1
— Dan Epstein (@epstein_dan) December 5, 2021
Italy is making life more uncomfortable for unvaccinated people as the holidays draw near. It is excluding them from indoor restaurants, theaters and museums to control the spread of coronavirus and encourage vaccine skeptics to get their shots. https://t.co/BBtcGipUtN
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 6, 2021
Irish primary school mask policy to be revised https://t.co/T41ZDaIaHE
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 6, 2021
'Extreme' vaccine discrimination risks leaving Africa behind – report https://t.co/Ryto4DCkAj pic.twitter.com/6fa4PsFZFM
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 6, 2021
COVID shots are finally arriving, but Africa can't get them all into arms https://t.co/c82exsyKKf pic.twitter.com/g1mNGfFzGJ
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 6, 2021
Covid in Uganda: The man whose children may never return to school https://t.co/512fUVUPdN
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 6, 2021
10 #COVID19 cases detected on cruise ship? arriving in New Orleans. All 3,200 passengers will be tested before being allowed to disembark https://t.co/JK48CPXMqo via @NOLAnews
— André Picard (@picardonhealth) December 5, 2021
======
The pandemic could end as a result of vaccine development, contact tracing, genomic analysis, containment measures & international cooperation. The world has a toolkit to bring an end to the pandemic
The problem? Those tools are not being put to best usehttps://t.co/qpn7MEESBX
— MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect) December 5, 2021
New genome samples submitted @GISAID show the world is still in a 95%+ #DeltaVariant #pandemic — except #Africa the picture is much more diverse, with nearly 6% of new infections being #Omicron pic.twitter.com/s11pJ8p5Og
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 5, 2021
What still needs to be worked out as the U.S. ramps up sequencing? Illumina $ILMN CEO @fdesouza tells @margbrennan that logistics are key. pic.twitter.com/LEk3qGa3jo
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) December 5, 2021
“We can see studies that show the virus can actually remain inside of a human body constantly mutating and adapting to that human body” @Laurie_Garrett on Omicron being particularly dangerous to the immunocompromised. #Velshi pic.twitter.com/QgmZg1SWoe
— Ali Velshi (@AliVelshi) December 5, 2021
'Next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid' https://t.co/gRnkQLQQgM
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 6, 2021
======
Even among vaccinated adults, a partisan gap in who’s receiving #COVID 19 booster shots has emerged.
32% of Democrats say they already got a booster, almost double the number of Republicans (18%), according to our new Vaccine Monitor report. https://t.co/Ti4oavzAyh pic.twitter.com/92M4PwP7Wx
— KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) (@KFF) December 5, 2021
Meet the Press routinely extends invitations to anti-vaxxers who pushed the Big Lie and nobody is holding @chucktodd accountable for it https://t.co/cYZcR4FkD0
— Matt Negrin, HOST OF HARDBALL AT 7PM ON MSNBC (@MattNegrin) December 5, 2021
Cutting down greatly the amount of hospitalized and dying among those vaccinated I'd call successful. But I came into this subject without my mind made up ahead of time. https://t.co/wdaprNZFCJ
— Dave Meltzer (@davemeltzerWON) December 2, 2021
Up among the unvaccinated, yes, greatly in fact. You would think that would be evidence vaccines work, but if you have an agenda, you just state deaths are up to prove they didn't work. https://t.co/j13C1SO9SS
— Dave Meltzer (@davemeltzerWON) December 2, 2021
All these GOP leaders and talking heads have been vaccinated. They’re safe from this all, but they’ll happily march their fans into the grave because it’s politically useful, it makes them money, or both. It’s just grim as shit to see how bad this is.
— Jean-Michel Connard ?? (@torriangray) December 3, 2021
No matter how I feel about some of these people and their execrable politics they simply do not deserve to die. They’ve been betrayed by a series of con artists and political opportunists. It sucks.
— Jean-Michel Connard ?? (@torriangray) December 3, 2021
This tweet from a guy who calls covid a "fake pandemic" has 11,000 retweets and 26,000 likes. It is false. Israel's health ministry did not approve a 4th vaccine shot. It said it would *meet* to *consider* such a shot for only *immunocompromised* patients. https://t.co/WSpVVLh5oc pic.twitter.com/gEnsy0gJji
— Yair Rosenberg (@Yair_Rosenberg) December 6, 2021
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
The New York State Dept of Health says 500 new cases yesterday.
YY_Sima Qian
On 12/6 China reported 38 new domestic confirmed (4 previously asymptomatic) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 28 new domestic confirmed (4 previously asymptomatic) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 360 active domestic confirmed & 2 active asymptomatic cases in the region.
Heilongjiang Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed cases. 2 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 34 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Xianyang in Shaanxi Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city.
Shanghai Municipality did not report any new positive cases. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 4 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
At Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining.
At Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Guangzhou in Guangdong Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city. 1 quarantine hotel is currently at Medium Risk.
At Dalian in Liaoning Province 16 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 87 active domestic confirmed & 8 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Hebei Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 19 active confirmed cases in the province.
At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Chongqing Municipality there currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Henan Province there currently are 63 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (47 at Zhengzhou & 16 at Zhoukou).
Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 2 at Ruili (via screening of residents in restricted movement zones) & 3 at Longchuan County (all from screening of persons under centralized quarantine). There currently are 51 active domestic confirmed & 43 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture. 1 zone at Longchuan County is currently at High Risk. All areas at Ruili are now at Low Risk.
Imported Cases
On 12/5, China reported 23 new imported confirmed cases (none previously asymptomatic), 39 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:
Overall in China, 37 confirmed cases recovered (17 imported), 12 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (10 imported) & 4 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all domestic), & 796 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,060 active confirmed cases in the country (425 imported), 12 in serious condition (2 imported), 487 active asymptomatic cases (419 imported), 2 suspect cases (both imported). 35,990 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 12/5, 2,553.028M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 9.604M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 12/6, Hong Kong reported 5 new positive cases, all imported (from Pakistan, South Korea, Russia & Finland).
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 4,262 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,663,034 cases. It also reports 40 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 30,614 deaths – 1.15% of the cumulative reported total, 1.18% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.98.
359 confirmed cases are in ICU, 163 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 5,894 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,572,053 patients recovered – 96.6% of the cumulative reported total.
Five new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,983 clusters. 234 clusters are currently active; 5,749 clusters are now inactive.
4,247 new cases today are local infections. 15 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 54,517 doses of vaccine on 5th December: 1,713 first doses, 2,605 second doses, and 50,199 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 54,091,375 doses administered: 25,879,889 first doses, 25,443,839 second doses, and 2,958,239 booster doses. 79.2% of the population have received their first dose, while 77.9% are now fully vaccinated.
Betty
Regarding Laurie Garrett’s comment on the threat caused by immuno-compromised people, is there is a clear way to improve their immunity?
JCJ
Senator Ron Johnson is exploring new depths. He recently made some remarks claiming that Dr Fauci overhyped Covid just like he overhyped HIV-AIDS. As a person who did medical training in the late ’80s and early ’90s I find that nauseating. Makes me dislike all my neighbors who had yard signs for him even more.
Starfish
@Betty: It probably depends on the condition. A friend has a condition that makes it hard for her to take up immunity from vaccines. She gets extra vaccines.
People with blood cancers like Colin Powell had are not going to take up their immunity from the vaccine.
People with other cancers who recover may take up their immunity better when they are not actively doing chemo.
The people with rheumatological conditions who are on certain medicines have a harder time.
I am not a doctor so actual doctors or people with the conditions above would know more.
New Deal democrat
In the US, the spike caused by distortions after the Thanksgiving weekend appears to have peaked. If we compare the last 5 days, which probably have little distortion, with the same 5 days 2 weeks ago, cases appear to have increased by about 20,000 per day, or up to 110,000.
For the full 7 days, regionally the West and South continue to report cases at rates much lower than one year ago, at roughly 25 and 20 cases per 100,000, respectively, vs. 60 and 50 one year ago. In the Northeast, there is only a slight decline at roughly 50 vs. 55 one year ago. In the Midwest the comparison is 70 vs. 80 one year ago.
I have been paying particular attention to the Midwest, where last year the winter wave peaked by Thanksgiving. This year it has spiked higher, due mainly to Il, IN, and OH. The Dakotas are below or equal to last year’s peak. I track the Dakotas because, if “natural immunity” is useful, it would show up there before anywhere else.
The Thanksgiving distortions should finally leave the 7 day averages in two days.
Internationally, there is *relatively* good news in the EU, where their Delta wave appears to have peaked (after some extraordinary restrictive measures were implemented in some countries) at 60 per 100,000/day. The U.K. is either slowly increasing or peaking at roughly 70 per 100,000. But this compares to the current US rate of roughly 35 per 100,000.
Good news continues in Canada and Israel, with 8 and 6 cases per 100,000, respectively.
OzarkHillbilly
I’m not gonna waste no tears.
Mousebumples
Re – a 4th shot
The CDC booster guidelines indicate that’s recommended for those who got an “additional dose” – such as the 3rd mRNA shot due to being immunocompromised. 6 months after the 3rd shot, so my kidney transplant recipient MIL would be due for hers in February 2022.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/clinical-considerations/covid-19-vaccines-us.html#considerations-covid19-vax-booster
Emphasis mine.
I think the additional dose was authorized in August, and as always, check with your doctors, etc., in case they have more info.
But I think we have a number of immunocompromised individuals within (or related to) the Balloon Juice family, so I wanted to share that info.
Chris Johnson
All that stuff at the bottom is exactly why manipulation of this pandemic is a weapon of war. WWIII happened on Facebook and Twitter, and we were (not) fighting it with Russia.
They don’t ever have to bomb us if they can get us to kill and weaken ourselves to the point that we’re not a credible threat. This has been global war waged with digital soldiers to take real enemy lives, and that enemy was us.
lowtechcyclist
From one of Jean-Michel Connard’s tweets:
You protect people from sustained disinformation campaigns by deplatforming those spreading disinformation.
First step is to require broadcast and cable television stations to “serve the public interest, convenience, and necessity” as used to be the case for broadcast TV.
Because it’s pretty obvious that this crap not only doesn’t serve the public interest, but in a pandemic, it’s a matter of public necessity that this crap be kept off of TV.
Yes, they’ll still be able to find it other places, but for most people, TV validates stuff. They’re more likely to believe some Facebook garbage if some Fox News guest is also spewing it.
Wvng
@JCJ: I’ve been struggling to find a corollary to Peak Wingnut that is depth rather than height to describe vile behavior like Johnson’s. Trench Venality doesn’t quite get there.
Wvng
@lowtechcyclist: We also need social media to put a stop to the bots and trolls that swarm EVERY post linking to media reports on covid. Any report on vaccines gets buried with “vaccines don’t work” comments. EVERY Facebook post on the seriousness of this disease and preventative measures gets LOL smiley face tags in the “like” followed by comments ridiculing masks and vaccines.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: The spike in the Boston area is definitely real, since it shows up *massively* in wastewater virus counts, which are indicating a wave at least as large as last winter’s in number of infections. I suspect this isn’t omicron, it’s the same old delta.
The open question is how that will map to actual harm to people. Deaths are at a much lower level than last year so far, though in my county (Essex, which has a somewhat lower vaccination level) it’s still way higher than I’d like to see and the hospitals have been strained all along.
Charlie Baker is still following a do-very-little strategy. Booster shots are popular but can be hard to get. I noticed much more masking again in my last visit to the grocery store but even with my booster shot and our new stack of N95s, I’m thinking maybe it’s time to go back to delivery and curbside orders just to avoid being part of the problem.
But holiday public events and such are still happening (without anything like vaccination mandates), and I suspect nothing is going to shut them down come hell or high water. People psychologically need these things and there’s pent-up demand from them all being cancelled last year. We may just have to hope that mass vaccination does well enough at mitigating the harm.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
For some reason this guy just started popping up in my YouTube feed. He’s a UK doctor giving analysis of Covid epidemiological data and he gets WAY down in the weeds if you like that sort of thing. Which I do.
The linked video is his take on Omicron reports out of South Africa, and the video is titled “Latest data, looking good.” So it’s optimistic, in line with Fauci’s comments.
His main case appears to be that while it’s spreading extremely rapidly, it is not causing a spike in people being hospitalized for Covid. Cases detected in hospitals are from people who are there for other things. Also people hospitalized for Covid are overwhelmingly not needing oxygen.
Matt McIrvin
@Wvng: If you were to read the comments on mass-media YouTube videos (which I do not recommend) you’d think the US population was near 100% antivaxxer. The bad commenters drive out good.
Matt McIrvin
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I think it’s still too early to say how much of that apparent mildness is due to the patients skewing younger. But it’s at least not worse in severity. The most interesting comment I heard from a doctor in South Africa was that they’re not seeing people losing their sense of smell or taste, which of course is often associated with even “mild” cases of previous variants.
Matt McIrvin
@Chris Johnson:
But it is also a civil war, and while they managed to incur heavy losses on our side in the early stages, now it’s mostly the other side waging biological warfare on itself. On a fine level of granularity–a lot of blue areas are going to have another winter wave but it’s their local right-wingers who will be disproportionately affected.
It could still benefit them politically, if the vote losses from their people dying are exceeded by the benefit of driving us out of public spaces and public engagement, and accelerating the geographical Big Sort.
I do wonder about the possibility of Trump or DeSantis or someone like them taking power in the future and waging partisan warfare again: they could deny vaccine supplies to blue states, federally ban vaccine and mask mandates to keep blue cities from benefiting from them, maybe even ban some types of vaccination with some kind of supply-chain justification.
Robert Sneddon
@Matt McIrvin: The big worry about the Omicron variant was that it had a lot of differences from earlier SARS-nCoV-2 virus variants — I described it somewhere else as like a car production line producing 4-door sedans (Alpha COVID-19 variant) and then station wagons (Delta) suddenly starting to produce lifted duallie pickup trucks with extended beds and a gun rack in the back window (Omicron).
We still don’t have real data, only patchwork anecdotal reporting of what Omicron is doing to people, both unvaccinated and vaccinated. Right now there isn’t any really bad news but that shouldn’t be taken as evidence of the Omicron variant being somehow “better” than Delta.
It’s possible that the Omicron variant will not outcompete and displace the Delta variant, it’s entirely possible that some people might get infected with both versions simultaneously. Delta won out over Wuhan classic and earlier variants because it was much more transmissible than its predecessors, reaching more hosts more quickly. The Omicron variant would have to be even better than Delta in that regard to “win”, not a pleasant prospect even if it does result in lesser symptoms generally.
lowtechcyclist
@Matt McIrvin:
Unfortunately, Covid’s only one front in the civil war. They’re doing well in other fronts, like effectively disenfranchising large numbers of Dem voters in states they control, scaring the bejeebers out of honest election, health, school officials, and teachers who are just trying to do their jobs, and depriving women of their autonomy.
lowtechcyclist
@Wvng:
I’ll have to let other people speak to that. I gave up on Facebook years ago, and blog comments sections like these are about as much social media as I’m involved with these days.
Matt McIrvin
@Robert Sneddon: It seems to me that if prior infection with Delta does not confer strong immunity against Omicron, one would not, a priori, expect the reverse to happen either. Which means that Omicron would not displace Delta at all, they’d just both infect people. In South Africa, their Delta wave already ended.
New Deal democrat
@Matt McIrvin:
Agreed re Massachusetts. If there is a surprise in the regional data, it is in how hard the highly vaccinated Northeast is being hit by Delta. In the past 12 weeks, 1% of the population in the NYC metro have been infected. Everywhere else in the Northeast, it is more like 2%.
Since that is only confirmed cases, it is probably something like 4% of the population infected in the past 12 weeks outside of NYC. If there is a silver lining, that is probably about 10% or more of the remaining unvaccinated population.
Soprano2
The numbers here are going in the wrong direction again except for deaths; there were only 4 Covid deaths here in November, which is almost as good as May when there were only 3. Vaccinations are still creeping upward at a rate of .2% a day. At this rate we won’t be at 70% for a year or more, if ever. Stupid MAGAs…..
Robert Sneddon
@Matt McIrvin: COVID-19 is spread by a novel coronavirus, that is, a virus the human population has no previous experience in dealing with and hence no innate immunity. It’s a bit like the indigenous population of the Americas getting exposed to smallpox by colonising Europeans and the concomitant transmission of syphilis back to Europe. That’s why it spread so easily and widely and why it continues to cause significant numbers of serious illnesses and deaths.
The science says that, statistically speaking, exposure to the assorted variants of SARS-nCoV-2 virus does not confer strong immunity to further infections, at least compared to mRNA vaccines. IIRC the vaccine-immunity level is five times better than that resulting from a single infection. We don’t yet know for sure whether exposure to the original strain of the virus or Alpha or even Delta provides any immunity to the Omicron variant, statistically speaking and the same goes for the range of vaccines we have on hand. The data hasn’t been collected, the numbers of confirmed gene-sequenced Omicron variant cases are still in the low thousands if that. Give the data scientists the systematically organised case histories of a million Omicron variant infections and maybe we’ll start to get some real idea of what we’re facing.
Starfish
@Chris Johnson:
How are we doing cyber warriors?
Soprano2
Hubby and I got our boosters yesterday – I got Pfizer again and he got Moderna again. So far no side effects for me; he was still asleep when I left this morning, but he had fewer side effects the first time than I did.
Tony Gerace
The ongoing logistical barriers to covid testing and vaccination are a real problem in this country. It’s the latest manifestation of the dysfunctional health care “system” in the U.S. I know one person (a young woman who I am teaching) who has not yet been vaccinated but who is not ideologically opposed to the vaccines. She is just a procrastinator — a very nice person who is one of those people who tend to find reasons NOT to do something. From time to time she asks me my opinion on the covid vaccine, I “strongly urge” her to get the vaccine — but she always finds a reason not to do it. It’s crazy, from my perspective, but I imagine that there are a significant number of people like her out there. A real push to make things as easy as possible could help people like that. (But that would be BIG GUMMINT. Can’t have that.)
glc
I believe Meghan O’Rourke is confused about PCR tests, and even in Paris it will take at least 24 hours.
You can certainly get a rapid antigen test. I had one as a walk-in in Lyon that took an hour and I understand the expected wait was considerably shorter on average. But that’s also possible in my home town in the U.S. as well and has been for some time.
PST
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I have never seen Dr. Campbell’s videos before. His analysis of the South African data certainly is reassuring, and in several different ways. He says that monitoring of virus levels in sewage shows that the omicron variant is spreading exponentially, and he estimates that actual prevalence is ten times diagnosed cases, apparently because so much is asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic. This matches up with the fact that most of the diagnosed cases are incidental findings in patients admitted for other reasons, as pointed out. He also thinks that the age distribution of diagnosed patients, when compared with vaccination rates, suggests that vaccination continues to be helpful. He makes the interesting observation that most patients are being treated with steroids, that the doctors in this hospital are knowledgeable and experienced, and that such doctors do not use steroids until the infection is suppressed and it is necessary to calm inflammation. Therefore, by implication, these patients are pretty much out of the woods already. Finally, in silver lining department, he mentions that easy transmission and exponential spread could accelerate herd immunity. I found Dr. Campbell to be very repetitious, making it a task to listen all the way through, but he seems to know what he’s talking about.
cmorenc
@Robert Sneddon:
It’s astonishing how folks arguing that “natural immunity” adequately protects humans without the alleged risks of vaccines – totally overlook numerous compellng historical refutations of their argument.
Peale
@cmorenc: There’s a large chunk that I’ve noticed lately who deny that COVID is a virus. Scientists have misidentified it. COVID actually is our natural immunity. Its part of the immune system and scientists have misidentified it. So basically all these people last year suddenly showed up with breathing problems and died of those symptoms and what we call COVID 19 was the immune system response to some other unnamed pathogen. In this account, you actually want COVID 19 floating around. Its your protection against this pathogen.
Sloane Ranger
So, Sunday in the UK and we had 43,992 new reported cases. The rolling 7-day average is up by 5.4%, but, as usual, any figures published over the weekend should be treated with caution due to office closures leading to processing backlogs. New cases by nation,
England – 37,396 (down 2553)
Northern Ireland – 1422 (down 220)
Scotland – 2607 (up 1350, but this may be due to them not reporting fully on Saturday)
Wales – 2567 (Do not report on Saturdays).
Deaths – There were 54 deaths reported yesterday (usual pinch of salt required). The rolling 7-day average is down by 2.1%. 41 deaths were in England, 7 in Northern Ireland, 1 in Scotland and 5 in Wales.
Testing – Not updated at weekends.
Hospitalisations – Not updated at weekends.
Vaccinations – As of Saturday, 4th, 51,094,640 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 46,527,302 had had 2 shots and 20,258,417 had had a 3rd shot/booster. This means that, by that date, 88.8% of all UK residents aged 12+ have had 1 shot, 80.9% have had 2 shots and 35.2% had had a 3rd shot/booster. The average number of people getting their 1st shot is averaging out at about 25,000 a day currently, those getting their 2nd shot are averaging out at about 30,000 a day and those getting a 3rd shot/booster at about 400,000 a day.
Sloane Ranger
@Peale:
Err, yer what???!!!
That’s insane on every level I can think of!
Ellenr
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I’ve been watching his videos since this began. He reviews peer reviewed papers and talks to doctors in different parts of tge world.
Robert Sneddon
@Ellenr: Dr. Campbell is tolerable in small doses, I have found. He’s a good source for collating and presenting new information but he is rather long-winded and he’s got a couple of obsessions such as taking lots of Vitamin D to “boost your immune system” which make me cringe a little.
It’s worth pointing out he’s not a medical doctor (and he makes this clear in his bio). He is medically trained and qualified to teach in the nursing field, and he’s written at least one book on the subject that’s required reading for any nursing student in the UK.
Don’t read the comments. Just… don’t.
A Youtube video series I do follow is the MedCram channel about COVID-19 which is more educational and typically shorter episodes than a Dr. Campbell video, although it tends to cover one issue or new discovery or scientific paper at a time.
Peale
@Sloane Ranger: The insane part, I guess is that I needed to invent the unidentified pathogen to make this make sense. They don’t bother to explain why all these people started showing up with COVID symptoms when the previous January, there weren’t so many people showing up with these symptoms. But basically all these silly scientists looked for reasons, found that all the sick people had this “COVID” “virus” and I guess for some reason forgot to look at people who weren’t sick to see if they didn’t have this so called “virus”. We’re lucky, I guess, that the scientists didn’t hit on the fact that all the sick people had eyes and then tried to base their cures on removing them. What they point to is the human genome material that’s been incorporated into the virus as proof that its being generated by humans.
smith
@Peale: Weren’t there some similar bonkers “theories” circulating back in the day about HIV? There seems to be a certain portion of the population that is pathologically unable to accept the fact that there are other people with more expertise than they have.
cmorenc
@Peale:
(my emphasis added above)
This italicized notion is based in part on a germ of fact that is being wildly warped and misinterpreted by the faction of anti-vax COVID deniers: the cytokline storm that COVID infection can induce in many people’s immune systems, where the excessive response of the immune system to the virus causes as much or more inflammation and loss of effective lung capacity than the virus itself directly causes.
Fair Economist
@Robert Sneddon:
This preprint finds strong protection from previous infection in South Africa. That doesn’t mean that vaccines aren’t better – there’s a lot of evidence they are, including substantial pro-vaccine risk even after unresisted Delta waves in FL and TX. TBF, there is a lot of modeling involved in extracting the relative risk (on page 20) so this is not a take-to-the-bank paper.
J R in WV
@Peale:
OK, these people, promulgating this fever dream, they deserve to die slowly, drowning in their own fluids, for dreaming this cluster-fuck up in the first place, and spreading it into the community.
A horrible fantasy which will contribute to many deaths all by itself. Ghastly fever dream only possible for people who know less than nothing about biology.
Robert Sneddon
Sajid Javid, the UK’s health minister is currently making a statement regarding the COVID-19 situation to the House of Commons before taking questions. From the BBC report:
This will be from the SAGE group who have been advising the Government on the science and medical aspects of COVID-19 since the start of the outbreak. The shorter time between infection and infectiousness is new data, the rest is basically “we don’t know yet.”
SWMBO
I love my friends.
One sent a picture of a tweet.
OMI
OMNI
OMEGA
GREEK FOR (END)
CRON
CHRON
CHRONOS
GREEK FOR (TIME)
OMICRON IS THE “END TIME” VIRUS. GET RIGHT WITH GOD. THE DEVIL IS ABOUT TO MAKE HIS FINAL MOVE.
Another friend commented “I was afraid there was a shortage of dumbasses but I guess I was wrong.”
RaflW
Some friends just did a 14 might cruise from Rome to Florida, we saw them for brunch in San Juan, P.R. I sort of marveled at the willingness to be at sea for that long with c. 1,400 other passengers, but it was a trip that required proof of vaccine, testing, and had set aside a whole section of cabins (probably lower-value interior) in case an isolation ward were needed.
And that’s a small ship (guest capacity about 1,550). I cannot, ever, even without Covid, fathom boarding a 3,200 passenger cruise. Ever. Yuck.
StringOnAStick
@cmorenc: That cytokine storm is how the Spanish flu killed off mostly people at the age when your immune system is it’s strongest, the late teens to early twenties. People much younger than that don’t have a fully mature immune system (which is why they couldn’t just make doses for the very young based only on weight), and those old enough to have encountered a similar enough flu earlier in life to have some immune response to the Spanish flu.
StringOnAStick
@RaflW: I don’t think I’ll ever be the sort to willingly go on a cruise; it’s completely and totally unappealing to me.