Longterm for my kids & for the world nothing matters more than climate change. But for this moment, nothing will matter more for my life & my childrens’ lives than this pic.twitter.com/kVDFxz99Gf
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 23, 2021
Pfizer says kid-size doses of its COVID-19 vaccine are safe and nearly 91% effective at preventing infections in elementary school children. https://t.co/vmE3BVKD9p
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 22, 2021
“We really want everybody to think about it like topping off your antibody levels, like topping off the tank before winter comes,” said Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the division of infectious-disease at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. https://t.co/EhP2342Tbq
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 22, 2021
More than 120 million Americans will become eligible for a booster shot in the coming months, the White House coronavirus response coordinator has said, and pharmacies are facing complex challenges as they roll out plans to administer them. https://t.co/zsUixG8I8Z
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 22, 2021
In the USA #COVID19 #vaccines are free and widely available. But 16 countries have a better vaccination rate than America. This doesn't reflect govt failure to provide — it's mass refusal. pic.twitter.com/ltitkdMAM1
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) October 22, 2021
======
U.S. urges all WTO members to support intellectual property waiver for COVID-19 vaccines https://t.co/IebEQZbGlC pic.twitter.com/WajBhrTBtd
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 22, 2021
Beijing has begun offering booster vaccinations against Covid to residents 18 & older, a campaign that's underway in many rich countries. China also wants to have the virus completely under control before the winter Olympics, which it's hosting in 4 months https://t.co/ASDUmu4Mfg
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) October 22, 2021
India delays COVID-19 vaccine supplies to WHO-backed COVAX, sources say https://t.co/GPPS9iHDtD pic.twitter.com/Er6o0EgELD
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 20, 2021
Analysis: Vaccinated Singapore shows zero-COVID countries cost of reopening https://t.co/LUmi1cyvpk pic.twitter.com/MFVQBPaVJt
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 22, 2021
Flying Doctors take vaccines to Australia's outbackhttps://t.co/aHIXQNaY1s pic.twitter.com/C8nlqjkXy1
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) October 19, 2021
New Zealand's coronavirus outbreak spreads to South Island https://t.co/oOCwuuBJ11 pic.twitter.com/nuvfXB93LC
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 23, 2021
Tunisia imposes COVID-19 vaccine pass on Tunisians and all foreign visitors https://t.co/gSfotFMCrl pic.twitter.com/a6QAURMZnl
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 23, 2021
⚡️BREAKING: Russia on Saturday reported another record high number of both new coronavirus cases and deaths. Officials reported 37,678 new coronavirus cases and 1,075 fatalities from Covid-19 over the last 24 hours. https://t.co/vKg3VjqXRC
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) October 23, 2021
COVID-19 deaths in Russia hit record for fifth straight day as lockdown looms https://t.co/VKRcMh331f pic.twitter.com/mjdTHJNWRB
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 23, 2021
Regret and defiance in Europe's vaccine-shy east as COVID-19 rages https://t.co/pMPRSSu7XT pic.twitter.com/XDp9ESX0cF
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 22, 2021
Ukraine’s coronavirus infections and deaths have reached all-time highs for a second straight day, a challenge for the country where the share of vaccinated is one of Europe’s lowest. Ukrainian officials reported 23,785 confirmed infections and 614 deaths. https://t.co/4bi0LMIQc9
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 22, 2021
Covid: Romania's health system torn apart by pandemic https://t.co/twMMoVeQpM
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) October 22, 2021
Europe is getting increasingly anxious about #COVID19 across the English Channel. COVID incidence in England hit highest levels since the January #DeltaVariant surge. In Wales, 1-out-of-every-45 ppl newly infected last week. https://t.co/k13T8Vs6vM via @financialtimes pic.twitter.com/kfphg7fYug
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) October 22, 2021
Delta 'Plus' Covid variant may be more transmissible https://t.co/3vNjbzeWcp
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) October 22, 2021
======
In over 2200 children ages 5-11, a placebo-controlled trial of a dose of 10 μg, 1/3 of adults, showed 90.7% efficacy of Pfizer's vaccine (3 cases in vaccine, 16 in placebo)https://t.co/DtuvLmI8An @loftus @JaredSHopkins pic.twitter.com/KdWjPwiGOJ
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) October 22, 2021
This: "it is likely that #SARSCoV2 #vaccines will need to be updated on a seasonal or yearly basis to maintain population-level protective immunity…other interventions might also be required to prevent the occurrence of further significant outbreaks…"https://t.co/bwZJ4o2p9I
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) October 22, 2021
Some people are naturally resistant to infection by SARSCoV2. Now, a global effort is underway to understand why https://t.co/7sAJ5jTQas
— delthia ricks ?? (@DelthiaRicks) October 19, 2021
After almost 2 years of Covid, the overwhelming fixation on hospitalizations and deaths as the only important outcomes for getting infected is untenable.
Deliberately ignoring #LongCovid and its functional impairment will not make it go away.— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) October 22, 2021
Two women who contracted COVID-19 during their pregnancies are urging other pregnant women to get vaccinated. Kyndal Nipper lost her baby after a seemingly mild COVID-19 case. Amanda Harrison had to be put on a ventilator and her baby was delivered early. https://t.co/p6abPyS57E
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 19, 2021
3. #Covid19 has completely disrupted #flu. Globally flu has been & remains at historically low levels.
In the US, between 150-200 kids a year died from flu pre-Covid. Last year 1 died.
Thousands of adults (up to 60,000 in a bad year) died from flu pre Covid. Not now. pic.twitter.com/3rSpipkqM1— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) October 23, 2021
======
The pandemic has been nightmarish but one good thing coming out of it is that some bad police are removing themselves from the forces. Because I guarantee the ones refusing to be vaccinated are also the ones we need to worry about for other reasons.
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) October 22, 2021
It’s like Fox News owns stock in covid https://t.co/b5H6rHwhbY
— Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) October 22, 2021
Chip Roy, TX rep –
*chip, five minutes later* pic.twitter.com/SmvW2Js9wn
— kilgore trout, defective towel (@KT_So_It_Goes) October 23, 2021
Steeplejack (phone)
I just passed the six-month anniversary of my second Pfizer shot on Wednesday. Guess I’ll see if I can get a booster next week.
raven
@Steeplejack (phone): I got mine three weeks ago and I’m glad because I’m going on a fishing boat next week in Florrrriiidaaaaaa!!!
YY_Sima Qian
On 10/22 China reported 38 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 6 new domestic asymptomatic cases & 1 domestic suspect case.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 11 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic suspect cases. There currently are 36 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic suspect cases in the region.
Xi’an in Shaanxi Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
Ningxia “Autonomous” Region reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Gansu Province reported 17 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic). There currently are 35 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
Hebei Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 4 active asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zunyi in Guizhou Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 residential compounds have been elevated to Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality reported 6 new domestic confirmed cases (2 mild & 4 moderate), a 5 person party that had gone on a driving tour through Ningxia, Shanxi & Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases in the city. The Medium Risk community has been elevated to High Risk.
Haidong in Qinghai Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city.
Tianmen in Hubei Province did not report any new domestic positive cases, both tourists who had visited Gansu & Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia in the 1st half of Oct., & were driving through Hubei on their way home in Guangdong.
Changsha in Hunan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, both tourists who had recently returned from travel across Gansu & Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia.
Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases (all at Ruili, all persons already under centralized quarantine). There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 18 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture.
At Fujian Province 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed cases remaining in the province, all at Xiamen.
At Heilongjiang Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining in the province, at Harbin.
At Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region the last domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation.
At Henan Province there currently are 5 active domestic confirmed cases remaining, all at Shangqiu.
Imported Cases
On 10/22, China reported 12 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 11 imported asymptomatic cases:
Overall in China, 19 confirmed cases recovered (17 imported), 13 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (12 imported) & 3 were reclassified as confirmed cases (2 imported), & 775 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 549 active confirmed cases in the country (414 imported), 7 in serious condition (1 imported), 385 active asymptomatic cases (354 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 26,626 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 10/22, 2,243.018M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.468M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 10/23 Hong Kong reported 6 new positive cases, all imported.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
Monroe County website says 203 new cases yesterday.
NYSDOH says we had 235 new ones yesterday.
No sign of a let up with Delta yet and there’s a new variant that’s even more contagious. Ugh.
Steeplejack
@raven:
Sounds good! Is the boat requiring vaccines, or are you going to be on there with a bunch of freedom-loving patriots? Although I guess it doesn’t matter much in the brisk sea air.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia should be on that bar chart in Laurie Garrett’s tweet: we’re at 77.6% with at least one dose. 72.2% with both doses, which would put us between Italy and Canada.
raven
@Steeplejack: They can’t even ask. I was watching a fishing show done in Panama City and, at the end, they superimposed a picture of one of the guys on the show with a tribute. Travis Alan Holeman was an anti-masker who died from Civid.
My intention is to mask in the cabin and not on deck.
eta
From his family on a Go Fund Me
lowtechcyclist
If they could, they surely would.
In the war on Covid, they’re Axis Sally.
Idiot Congressman Chip Roy:
Here’s the thing: there are only so many things you can develop genuine expertise on in one lifetime. It takes years and years to get to the level where you know enough to question the experts in a field like epidemiology.
I’m a PhD mathematician and professional statistician, and I know how long it took me to get to those levels in two at least somewhat related fields. There’s no way I could start that process over in a completely foreign field like epidemiology without devoting an enormous chunk of the remainder of my life to the effort.
And for what? There are already thousands of people out there who’ve already invested the time and effort to become experts in that field.
At some point, you’ve just got to trust the experts, trust the people who’ve already invested a significant piece of their lives in becoming really good in a field. Pretending that you can just jump in and say, “I don’t trust the experts,” and have that make any sort of sense, is just bullshit.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
According to a Facebook expert, 2+2 = 5. People like you are trying to steal my extra number. I don’t trust you.
Steeplejack
@raven:
I have some sympathy for the guy, but (from that article): “COVID-19, however, was one fight he couldn’t win. Despite his condition, he charmed and befriended the medical staff who fought valiantly alongside him for 39 days.”
If I had been working in an ICU for a year and a half through this mess, I’d find it hard to be “charmed” by some unvaccinated asshole showing up at this point. But, hey, silver lining: “As his youngest relative, Jaxon, excitedly said, ‘Travis will get to hunt and fish as much as he wants in Heaven.’”
Sounds like you’re taking the right precautions. (Right = what I would do in that situation. ?)
The Thin Black Duke
@Baud: In Baud We Trust
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud:
It is probably your lucky number too that you’d win the lottery with.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
Critical Number Theory! They warned us about this.
Baud
@Steeplejack:
Haha. It’s a zero sum game.
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I’d be rich if it weren’t for Democrats!
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 5,828 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, tfor a cumulative reported total of 2,426,050 cases. It also reports 78 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 28,312 deaths – 1.17% of the cumulative reported total, 1.21% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.87.
533 confirmed cases are in ICU, 229 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 9,178 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,320,391 patients recovered – 95.6% of the cumulative reported total.
Two new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,719 clusters. 557 clusters are currently active; 5,162 clusters are now inactive.
5,821 new cases today are local infections. Seven new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 157,999 doses of vaccine on 22nd October: 25,743 first doses, 113,989 second doses, and 18,267 booster doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 48,831,214 doses administered: 25,344,201 first doses, 23,565,799 second doses, and 84,941 booster doses. 77.6% of the population have received their first dose, while 72.2% are now fully vaccinated.
Raven
@Steeplejack: yea, I masked in the concourse and John at the game last week.
Cermet
Speaking of not believing the experts – that reminds me of the the physicist that was an AGW denier who then took money from the kock-sucker brothers (now singular, thank goodness – hoping the last one follows quickly) to study the Climate models to show exactly how and why they were all wrong; trouble was, after a year of intensive study and work running their models, he discovered that all the major models were correct (using real data over the past twenty years and then comparing outputs to reality), except they almost always underestimated the problem. Of course, other AGW clowns now dismiss his conclusions.
John S.
@lowtechcyclist:
I agree with this sentiment 100%.
I’m a product manager that specializes in foreign exchange products, and it took me years to become one of a a small number of experts on this field. But this mental disease amongst people that they can stay in a Holiday Inn Express and become an expert in subjects they know nothing about is an epidemic in and of itself.
I find myself increasingly arguing with people who know fuck all, but are constantly trying to explain to me how complex shit works. I took the time and effort to develop that expertise, but that doesn’t seem to matter any more.
The Thin Black Duke
@Cermet: Facts stubbornly insist on being correct.
New Deal democrat
Nationwide cases have resumed their decline, which has been at a steady rate of about 1500-2000/day for nearly the past 4 weeks. Deaths have anomalously increased, but on closer inspection that turns out to be huge data dumps from Ohio, Arizona, and (maybe) California.
For the moment, still no sign of the onset of a winter wave.
That some people seem immune or nearly so to COVID is not surprising. At some point we are going to find out that there is a %age who are uniquely susceptible, and that will explain in retrospect why Delta burned like a forest fire through dry tinder.
MattF
See, all those people who trust ‘experts’ are ‘experts’ themselves. Obvsly a conspiracy.
Spanky
@The Thin Black Duke:
John Adams, The Portable John Adams
Quinerly
@Steeplejack (phone): Good luck to you next week! l am over 7 months out on the one shot J&J and feeling very uneasy since traveling for 2 plus more months.
Hoping to get a Pfizer booster today at the Santa Fe Farmers Market…. National Guard event almost in my rental’s front yard in the Railyard District.
sab
I got Moderna #3 yesterday afternoon (yay! for being old!) and so far only a slightly sore arm.)
Steeplejack
@Quinerly:
I’m running down to Rehoboth Beach with my brother Monday morning for an overnighter, so I decided to wait until after that to get the booster (assuming it’s available for me—haven’t checked yet), in case I have any side effects. He has to meet a plumber or somebody at the beach house, so it’s a good excuse for a little road trip.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat:
At this point, large sections of the country have a substantial fraction of the population who have already been infected, and while that’s not necessarily reliable protection, it’s got to be suppressing rates of new infection and serious illness. Part of the reason we’re having big outbreaks in sparsely populated areas of the northern tier now is that these are areas that were relatively lightly touched by the earlier waves.
The Acela corridor is not only highly vaccinated, it’s also likely got a lot of residual B- and T-cell immunity from being hit so hard a year and a half ago, and again last winter–especially among the residents who are least likely to be vaccinated.
raven
@Steeplejack: My BIL is going out of Oregon Inlet the 3d but I can’t go to Florida and turn around and go to OBX!
Matt McIrvin
While, per earlier threads, I probably will be eligible for a booster, the six-month point for me is in late November and the way things are shaking out, I probably won’t be able to get it until after Thanksgiving, or close enough before that I won’t have the enhanced immunity until after Thanksgiving. In any event, my vaccination was with the Moderna shot and the antibodies from that are relatively durable. We’re planning to go down and visit my parents (who I assume will get their boosters soon if they haven’t had them already–they’ve been taking this super-seriously from jump) and I plan to make use of rapid antigen tests to be extra-sure I’m not endangering them.
New Deal democrat
@Matt McIrvin: True, but note that the Medical Express article discusses people who appear to have “natural immunity” to COVID. That is obviously different from acquired resistance.
I am just pointing out that there is almost certainly a substantial group at the other end of the spectrum, I.e., “naturally susceptible,” and just from the way Delta rolled in and out like a tsunami in most countries is pretty potent circumstantial evidence for that hypothesis.
Fester Addams
Well, if we see “relatively high frequency of cognitive impairment several months after patients contracted COVID-19”, and there’s a positive correlation between stupidity and Trump-voting… Do the math (those who still can).
Another Scott
@Cermet: I remember that story because it is so rare. It’s really hard for humans to change their minds.
I also recall doing work-study with an economist Prof in college. He worked on the Index of Leading Economic Indicators and polled a dozen or so others who had various models for what the numbers would be. My job was to plot the data in various ways. I was talking with one of his postdocs and said that I thought those modelers wanted to be right – so they would always do tweaks based on their intuition and previous real world results. The PD said that he didn’t believe that – he thought that they would report whatever their model spit out. We thought that he was naive…
Only a couple of the modelers we’re consistently good back then (early Reagan years), IIRC. It was hard work with lots of change happening!
Expertise is extremely valuable because the world is complicated!
Cheers,
Scott.
smith
@New Deal democrat: But Delta stubbornly refuses to roll out of the UK, which was hit by that variant before other western countries, and is relatively well-vaccinated. I find the whole pattern there baffling. I’m sure behavior has something to do with it, but surely the susceptible people would have encountered it by now.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: I also personally know at least one unvaccinated person who seemed to be one of these mysteriously immune cases, uninfected despite massive household exposure… but then caught it several months later when Delta came to town.
Wag
@Steeplejack: I got boosted with Pfizer a few weeks ago, and no side effects. Easy as a flu shot.
Matt McIrvin
@smith: My impression is that the UK now is a bit like Florida–vaccination isn’t super low, but the place is just wide open and the government is steadfastly opposed to any non-medical interventions.
But the wave seems to have burned out faster in Florida. It might be different patterns of vaccination–in Florida, the rural areas are low-vaccination and some cities are actually quite high-vaccination; in the UK it’s more the reverse, kind of like eastern Massachusetts, with the lowest vaccination in poor urban areas.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — 2,403 new COVID-19 cases reported today. The test positivity rate is 8.7%. There were no new deaths reported due to a data issue. This number will be updated tomorrow. ICU bed occupancy numbers are 61, up one from yesterday while hospitalisations are 896, up two.
There were approximately 4,700 vaccinations carried out in Scotland yesterday (Friday) with about 65% of these being first vaccinations of school-age children. 91.9% of 16+ adults are now vaccinated with their first dose and 85.5% are fully vaccinated. 74.6% of 16 and 17-year-olds have now received their first vaccination, up 0.1% from yesterday. 51.0% of 12-15 year olds have now received their first vaccination, up 0.6% from yesterday.
There were about 28,000 booster vaccinations carried out yesterday in Scotland with a total of about 458,000 boosters to date.
smith
@Matt McIrvin: When I was thinking about this yesterday, I went looking for a breakdown of infections and vaccinations in the UK by region, and I found this. It’s like the CovidActNow state maps, in that you can flip between a map showing vax rate and one showing vax rate. As you say, the cities tend to be the low vax areas there — they clearly stand out as lighter dots on the map. However, infection rates are more like here — they’re lower in the cities.
I’m sure there’s a limit to the usefulness of comparing countries, as both culture and politics are really not the same there and here, but the overall trend during Delta has been so different in the UK, even compared to other western European countries, that it still seems really anomalous. Maybe some of UK commenters could enlighten us.
Matt McIrvin
@smith: Another thing about the UK is that they do do a LOT of testing. So they’re probably picking up many mild/asymptomatic cases that would get missed in most of the US.
Robert Sneddon
@Matt McIrvin:
There aren’t that many city-centre areas in the UK that are “poor” (I live in a flat in Edinburgh city centre which has a market price of half a million quid, new-build flats just up the street go for a million). What the city centres do have is a large population of younger adults, often renting in a flatshare for a year or two, the Young Immortals who go to pubs and football matches and parties and don’t mask. They’re the major segment of the population who just aren’t interested in getting vaccinated for various reasons. Older folks especially in the rural areas outside the cities are 100% fully vaccinated and getting their booster shots.
The case rates in the UK are high but the testing rate is also high, more than double the rate in the US in part due to lateral-flow tests being free over-the-counter. Hospitalisation numbers are creeping up but ICU occupancy is way lower per capita than the US and the same goes for the death rate (per million population, US = 31 deaths per week compared to UK = 14 deaths per week). It’s still bad and likely to get worse as we move into winter. Without vaccinations and under the same restrictions it would be a bloodbath.
smith
@Matt McIrvin: Yes, testing rate is always the wild card. It certainly would explain why the new case rate in the UK is much higher than here, but the new death rate is much lower.
Tom Levenson
@Cermet: That AGW physicist clown is Berkeley’s Robert Muller, who is now a lab-leak conspiracy theorist who publishes his nonsense in the Wall St. Journal.
Fair Economist
The CDC continues to show extremely low flu transmission, with positivity of 0.1% on testing. Rates are up from the all time lows of the summer but still lower than normally seen anytime during a normal year. Unfortunately one sequence was the Yamagata variant, which hadn’t been seen anywhere in the world since December and which people were hoping was extinct. Rats.
Reported excess respiratory deaths continue to surpass those for the worst part of the 2018 flu epidemic, the worst in 50 years.
@smith: Simple explanation for ongoing Delta in the UK; it’s roughly at steady state. With any other respiratory virus people catch it again every few years, tops. COVID is going to be the same, maybe more frequent since it’s more contagious.
Deaths are down, but COVID is still one of the top 10 causes of death there, probably #3. This is also to be expected from the steady state; prior infection or vax should provide substantial protection from severe outcomes – but not perfect, and this is a dangerous disease. IMO the inferior outcomes for the UK show we can’t go back to the old normal; control will require some measures, like the vax and mask requirements of the saner EU countries.
Fair Economist
@Matt McIrvin: The UK is doing a lot of testing – but not nearly enough, because they still have a high positivity rate. That astronomical case rate is very real.
Ken
It’s nice being a member of an intelligent species where we don’t have to rely on that. Combined with having an adaptive immune system, it avoids the whole “98% die, but the population becomes immune because it’s descended from the survivors” strategy that the invertebrates have.
Wvng
@lowtechcyclist: People who have not gained expertise in a complex field generally have no idea what expertise requires. People who have expertise in a complex field who think that makes them ready experts in everything are fools. Like that physicist who was famously and loudly a denier on climate change, who received a Koch grant to review the evidence, put together a team, spent a couple of years and, in the end cane out with “it’s real and worse than most experts say.” To the best of my knowledge he never fessed up to having been a fool for stepping out of his lane. That, in doing so, he added to the pressure on actual experts to minimize their conclusions and their public concerns.
And I see that cermet already posted about this clown.
Sloane Ranger
I agree with Robert Sneddon and other posters about the apparently anomalous situation in the UK. I think a lot of it is down to testing more, so asymptomatic and mild cases are picked up where they might not be elsewhere. I’ve just come back from my hairdressers and she was telling me that they all test twice a week as a matter of course and I know that other workplaces and schools have similar requirements in place. Also, I am sure that other countries have given rise to new variants/mutations but we are picking them up more often because we test more.
Anyway, here in the UK we had 49,298 new cases yesterday (Friday). This is an increase of 18.1% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,
England – 41,745 (down 2618)
Northern Ireland – 1355 (up 304)
Scotland – 2902 (up 547)
Wales – 3296 (down 944).
Deaths – There were 180 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase of 15.8% in the rolling 7-day average. 143 deaths were in England, 7 in Northern Ireland, 19 in Scotland and 11 in Wales.
Testing – 1,011,431 tests took place on Thursday, 21 October. The rolling 7-day average is up by 1.4%. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 866,695.
Hospitalisations – There were 8238 people in hospital and 892 on ventilators on Thursday, 21 October. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was up by 19.1% as of 18 October.
Vaccinations – As of 21st October, 49,603,139 people had received 1 shot of a vaccine and 45,486,950 had had 2. In percentage terms, 86.3% of all UK residents aged 12+ have had 1 shot and 79.1% had had 2 as of that date.
smith
@Fair Economist: So what you’re saying is that this is what endemic covid looks like?
Cameron
@Steeplejack: If you get a chance to stop at the Dogfish Inn, let me know what it’s like. I’m thinking of paying a visit next time I’m up north.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Cameron:
Dogfish Head on Rehoboth Avenue is pretty good: upscale bar food done well (and I mean “bar food” in the expanded, modern sense) and a variety of beers on tap. Mixed drinks and hard cider, too, I think. It tends to be crowded at meal times because it’s in a prime location and it’s popular.
The Dogfish Head here in Falls Church is my “local.” Shorter menu but also quite good.
If you like Tex-Mex, I highly recommend El Azteca in Rehoboth Beach and Agave in nearby Lewes.
Bill Arnold
@Tom Levenson:
I wonder what lab-escape storytellers think of the Maine Lobster Theory:
China-linked disinformation campaign blames Covid on Maine lobsters – The University of Oxford found evidence that pro-China social media accounts are pushing a new thread of propaganda related to the origins of the pandemic. (Oct. 21, 2021, 10:00, Olivia Solon, Keir Simmons and Amy Perrette)
And this could be consequences :-)
Australia asks why Hong Kong considers lobsters national security risk (October 22, 2021)
Bill Arnold
@smith:
Sadly, no. Current variants of SARS-CoV-2 are a lot more infectious, with R0 of maybe 6-8? A novel influenza peaks at an R0 of about 1.8; 2009 was more like 1.4, and 1.4 or. less is typical in the current era. That’s low enough that NPIs vs COVID including behavior changes (work from home, distancing) and mask wearing, can know R below 1, especially combined with widespread vaccination. That’s what’s happened for the past 3 influenza seasons (2 in the southern hemisphere) and may be happening again in the northern hemisphere.
Only 2 weeks of CDC data so far – adjust the year range and week number (currently 41) of the URL to see different years and/or next week’s numbers.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2021-2022/data/whoAllregt_cl41.html
Bill Arnold
@Bill Arnold:
Re R for influenza:
Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature (Open Access, 04 September 2014)