Good news — *if* we can keep it:
Merck's COVID-19 pill cuts risk of death, hospitalization by 50% in study https://t.co/q6ULCMlWsH pic.twitter.com/8NUPsOn4Qq
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
I, too, want to believe… but however helpful, molnupiravir won’t be the silver bullet that ends the pandemic:
Merck’s experimental #Covid antiviral shows very promising results. Key here is this drug can be given within 5 days of symptom onset — a treatment window that is actually feasible in the real world. @matthewherper reports. https://t.co/TQAMY15xxG
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) October 1, 2021
… A five-day course of molnupiravir, developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, reduced both hospitalization and death compared to a placebo. In the placebo group, 53 patients, or 14.1%, were hospitalized or died. For those who received the drug, 28, or 7.3%, were hospitalized or died.
A simple oral medication to help treat Covid-19 has been an elusive goal since the start of the pandemic. Other drugs, including Gilead’s remdesivir, have also been shown to reduce hospitalizations if given early in the course of disease, but must be given intravenously.
“If this pans out, it will change the landscape,” said Andy Pavia, chief of the Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at University of Utah. “There’s still a lot we need to know. What does the side effect profile look like? Do we know how to dose it in populations that are different such as children and the obese? But as a top-line result, this is definitely exciting.”…
If approved, molnupiravir could have a dramatic impact on efforts to fight the pandemic. Merck and Ridgeback said they would seek an emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration “as soon as possible” and would submit it to regulatory agencies worldwide.
The data from the study were made public in a press release and have not yet been peer-reviewed. But even top-line figures were encouraging. In the first 29 days of the study, there were no deaths reported in the group treated with molnupiravir and eight deaths reported among patients who received placebo.
Patients in the study had mild-to-moderate Covid-19, were within five days of symptom onset when dosed, and had at least one risk factor associated with poor disease outcomes.
The study was stopped early on the recommendation of an independent data monitoring committee and in consultation with the FDA, Merck said. Such committees are charged with making sure studies are in the best interest of patients, and recommend they be stopped if it is clear a drug is effective…
The study had enrolled 90% of the 1,500 volunteers it planned to include, but the decision to stop it was based on data from 762 patients. A breakdown on the background, ethnicity, and gender of the participants was not immediately available, but the trial was conducted in countries across the world, including Argentina, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States…
More detail at the link.
Note: while $700/course for molnupiravir is accurate there, I made a mistake on cost per pill; this is 4 pills every 12 hours (h/t @RebeccaDRobbins for pointing this out in her NYT story, and Merck confirms), or $17.50/pill. 40 pills over 5 days = full course.
— Meg Tirrell (@megtirrell) October 1, 2021
Seeing way too many chatter/discussion of saying "well Molnupiravir is gonna replace vaccines!"….no? it's kind of better not to get infected in the first place and won't alone stomp out community transmission.
— Dr. Neurofourier (@Neurofourier) October 1, 2021
We’ve lost at least 100,000 Unvaccinated Americans in this delta wave. Death by antiscience aggression from far right, including conservative news outlets, some elected Governors and US House and Senate members. If there’s a money trail I hope we find it https://t.co/0KZkO5PJjP
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) October 1, 2021
The pace of death has quickened and slowed as the virus ripples across the U.S. in waves.
By late September this year, more than 2,000 people on average were dying from the virus each day, a level the country has not reached since February. https://t.co/SqffAYhunH pic.twitter.com/8rH7V7y0SV
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 1, 2021
A decline in COVID-19 cases across the U.S. over the past several weeks has given overwhelmed hospitals some relief. But administrators are bracing for yet another possible surge as cold weather drives people indoors. https://t.co/RQQoWIgu7L
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 1, 2021
American, Alaska Airlines and JetBlue have all added vaccine mandates for their workers https://t.co/cBRUypPoEj
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) October 2, 2021
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Global COVID-19 deaths hit 5 million as Delta variant sweeps the world https://t.co/F8jZfweNmu pic.twitter.com/oukcKNrLCr
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 2, 2021
A year later, 45% of COVID patients in Wuhan still have symptoms
Study in hospitalised patients found fatigue, sweating, chest tightness, anxiety and myalgia were most common in severe cases but 41.5% with milder acute disease also affected #LongCovid https://t.co/p64J98KXw2
— LongCovidSOS (@LongCovidSOS) October 1, 2021
India has announced that British nationals arriving in the country will be subjected to COVID-19 tests and a 10-day mandatory quarantine, in response to the same measures being imposed on Indians visiting the U.K. https://t.co/WR3jrnfYk0
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 1, 2021
It begins…
Malaysia in talks to procure Merck's COVID-19 pills https://t.co/bcU0xRz4f9 pic.twitter.com/9oV7vuupDX
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 2, 2021
Covid threat looms over Thailand's plans to open up to tourists https://t.co/o84tPZpzXs
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) October 1, 2021
Health experts have warned Russia faces a months-long wave of surging Covid-19 cases as daily fatalities set a new record highhttps://t.co/SasKiXkbE9
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) October 1, 2021
⚡ Russia on Friday recorded its highest coronavirus death toll for a fourth day running with 887 fatalities https://t.co/toMaDMClzB
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) October 1, 2021
Portugal is among the world’s leaders in vaccinations, with roughly 86% of its population fully inoculated.
Vice Adm. Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who turned the country’s vaccine campaign around, said there was a key to his success: Keep politics out of it.https://t.co/ZGFNBv7SRX
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 1, 2021
Covid-19: Irish vaccine passports 'accelerated' jab uptake https://t.co/Ge5RrmITD7
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) October 2, 2021
Nigeria gets $400 mln in World Bank financing for COVID-19 https://t.co/GUq061h9Tb pic.twitter.com/n2wN63KbYG
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 2, 2021
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Researchers found contacts of vaccinated cases were less likely get Covid than contacts of unvaccinated cases. Most transmission occurred in households, showing that vaccination can protect household members—including kids not yet eligible for vaccination. https://t.co/uUnbrHssCx
— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) October 1, 2021
Rapid Tests for #COVID19 Make Pandemic Life Easier
"To end the #coronavirus’s grip on American society, the US must embrace rapid testing in a more substantial way by making it easier & cheaper for people to use them frequently."
-by @michaelmina_lab https://t.co/dsl1uwE0ig
— MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect) October 2, 2021
I sincerely hope this doesn’t lead to anti-vaxxers self-prescribing warfarin, but…
Blood thinners can help reduce hospitalizations related to Covid, researchers at Univ of Minnesota Medical School have found. The peer-reviewed research revealed that patients on blood thinners before developing Covid were admitted less often to hospitals https://t.co/OHYFHu1qz1
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) October 2, 2021
Pre-print study that claimed 1 in 1000 heart inflammation risk after Covid vaccination has been withdrawn due to bad data. The study, conducted by researchers at Univ of Ottawa Heart Institute, was posted on social media as proof vaccination is unsafe https://t.co/KmIhDp5mJl pic.twitter.com/prOcGAlpqB
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) October 2, 2021
Am I fully vaccinated without a COVID-19 vaccine booster? Yes, people who got a two-dose vaccine or the single-dose Johnson & Johnson shot are considered fully vaccinated. https://t.co/asOj6VBsUJ
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 1, 2021
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California Gov. Newsom has announced the nation's first coronavirus vaccine mandate for schoolchildren. The plan won't take effect until the COVID-19 vaccine gets a final approval for various grade levels. The shot is fully approved for those 16 and over. https://t.co/4hBZIMsMrd
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 1, 2021
U.S. Supreme Court's Sotomayor allows New York school vaccine mandate https://t.co/EgdSXZy89W pic.twitter.com/SqxseNHLrb
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 2, 2021
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey has signed a bill to tap $400 million in pandemic relief funds to help build prisons. Though it received bipartisan support in the state Senate, some congressional Democrats said prison construction was not the relief bill's intent. https://t.co/oieRWZt2nl
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 1, 2021
Murkowski says she was told a loved one in a hospital might have to be flown thousands of miles to get care because ICU beds are full; state flying in hundreds of health care workers; yet people are attacking health care workers who are working hard to save lives of people
— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) October 1, 2021
most astonishing part? not *one* of these deaths will change mind of a Covid zombie https://t.co/obCyIaOueg
— Eric Boehlert (@EricBoehlert) October 1, 2021
Three days after reopening for the first time in 18 months, the Broadway hit “Aladdin” is shutting down until Oct. 12 because of breakthrough COVID-19 cases in the company. https://t.co/Sob2YLVu1Q
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 2, 2021
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
Monroe County web site: 263 new cases yesterday. 3.9% test positivity.
NYSDOH says 259 new cases.
We’ve had over 200 cases a day for the last 3 days. Delta is still pretty active up here in “Almost Canada”.
YY_Sima Qian
On 9/30 China reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Fujian Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 13 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 293 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases.
Heilongjiang Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 83 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture, found via regular screening of residents at border crossing. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province, all at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture.
At Henan Province there currently are 7 active domestic confirmed cases remaining, all at Shangqiu.
Imported Cases
On 10/1, China reported 39 new imported confirmed cases (10 previously asymptomatic), 17 imported asymptomatic cases:
Overall in China, 43 confirmed cases recovered (27 imported), 16 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (14 imported) & 10 were reclassified as confirmed cases (5 imported), & 520 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 890 active confirmed cases in the country (503 imported), 4 in serious condition (2 imported), 353 active asymptomatic cases (341 imported), 0 suspect cases. 28,697 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 10/1, 2,212.206M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 754K doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 10/2, Hong Kong reported 5 new positive cases, all imported (from France, Germany, India & the Philippines, all had been fully vaccinated).
Baud
Not really astonishing at this point.
mrmoshpotato
Dump-humping shitstains will refuse to take it.
ETA – and did you know that there are three next-to-painless vaccines that are more effective?
ETA2 – Oh, this is a pill that might keep you from being hospitalized and/or dying from COVID-19 if you catch it! Fuck-a-doodle-doo! Three vaccines!
PAM Dirac
Some more information on molnupiravir:
listings on ClinicalTrials.gov Looks like Merck also had a trial for hospitalized patients that they stopped. It is in line with the thinking that anti-virals best use is keeping people out of the hospital, not treating patients sick enough to be in the hospital.
The take at In the Pipeline. Pretty positive review, but I think anyone who has been involved in drug discovery gets excited to see a trial stopped early by the data review committee because the efficacy is already clear. It very rarely happens.
NotMax
Maintaining the status quo Delta.
mrmoshpotato
Fixed.
New Deal democrat
No changes in US trends since yesterday. Cases nationwide continue to decline slowly, now down slightly more than 1/3rd from peak. In the South, cases have declined by more than 50% from peak! Deaths also continue to decline very slowly.
On the negative side, highly vaccinated ME, NH, and NM continue to see an increase in cases. And the trend in the NE and Mid-Atlantic as a whole is sideways rather than down. This points to the beginning of a winter outbreak as indoor social gatherings go up.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 10,915 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,268,499 cases. It also reports 121 new deaths as of midnight, for a cumulative total of 26,456 deaths – 1.17% of the cumulative reported total, 1.25% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.90.
832 confirmed cases are in ICU, 354 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 15,396 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,086,111 patients recovered – 92.0% of the cumulative reported total.
10 new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,501 clusters. 1,044 clusters are currently active; 4,457 clusters are now inactive.
10,908 new cases today are local infections. Sarawak reports 2,121 cases: 77 in clusters, 965 close-contact screenings, and 1,079 other screenings.
Selangor reports 1,383 local cases: 48 in clusters, 864 close-contact screenings, and 471 other screenings. Kelantan reports 1,288 cases: 29 in clusters, 849 close-contact screenings, and 410 other screenings. Johor reports 1,124 cases: 201 in clusters, 514 close-contact screenings, and 409 other screenings.
Perak reports 861 local cases: 58 in clusters, 378 close-contact screenings, and 425 other screenings. Terengganu reports 817 local cases: two in clusters, 683 close-contact screenings, and 132 other screenings.
Sabah reports 784 cases: 12 in clusters, 483 close-contact screenings, and 289 other screenings.Penang reports 768 cases: 22 in clusters, 279 close-contact screenings, and 467 other screenings.
Kedah reports 574 cases: 20 in clusters, 377 close-contact screenings, and 177 other screenings. Pahang reports 504 cases: 129 in clusters, 291 close-contact screenings, and 84 other screenings.
Melaka reports 216 cases: 13 in clusters, 83 close-contact screenings, and 120 other screenings. Negeri Sembilan reports 211 cases: 36 in clusters, 96 close-contact screenings, and 79 other screenings.
Kuala Lumpur reports 169 local cases: six in clusters, 82 close-contact screenings, and 81 other screenings.
Perlis reports 58 cases: 33 close-contact screenings and 25 other screenings. Putrajaya reports 26 cases: 17 close-contact screenings and nine other screenings. Labuan reports four cases: three in clusters and one other screening.
Seven new cases today are imported: three in Selangor, two in Kuala Lumpur, one in Perak, and one in Terengganu.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 237,245 doses of vaccine on 1st October: 103,021 first doses and 134,224 second doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 43,933,988 doses administered: 23,645,337 first doses and 20,389,622 second doses. 72.4% of the population have received their first dose, while 62.4% are now fully vaccinated.
Amir Khalid
How is it that when the US Government sends a state money to do X, the state can choose to spend some of it to do Y instead?
mrmoshpotato
@Amir Khalid: States’ rights? (Seriously – don’t know)
Ken
I don’t think you need a prescription to buy rat poison.
New Deal democrat
While there is no doubt that Delta is causing many more symptomatic cases among the young – in fact the hardest hit group per capita appears to be teens – the story is entirely different when we look at deaths.
Here is the CDC breakdown of cumulative deaths by age group through Sep 29:
Age 0-17 478
Age 18-29. 3,573
There have been fewer deaths among minors from COVID than there have been for flu (a little over 600) in the past year.
That being said, I hope CA’s order that schoolchildren be vaccinated is copied by every other State where possible.
New Deal democrat
@Amir Khalid: The Federal legislation sending money to the States gave the States almost unlimited discretion in how to spend it.
Congress could have made the program much more focused, but it was an emergency so they simply shoveled the money out the door.
Betty
@mrmoshpotato: The one plus is that it could relieve over-worked health care workers.
Anonphenom
Molnupiravir belongs to a class of antivirals known for their mutagenic (potentially carcinogenic) properties.
But I guess, desperate times will call for desperate measures.
(Avoid desperate situations, get vaccinated)
Ken
Uh-oh. “molnupiravir … comes from Thor’s hammer, in case you’re wondering (Mjollnir)”. The drug could be tied up in copyright lawsuits with Disney for years.
Shakti
@mrmoshpotato: We’re doomed because stupid people control everything.
“This costs more so it must be better!” exists in the same brains at the same time as “This is a plot to make big Pharma rich! RICH!” and it’s not people invested in Regeneron or Merck. Pfizer and Moderna and J&J are evil but Regeneron and Merck are great? Also something something horse paste and nebulized hydrogen peroxide and some other garbage sold by people on tiktok. WTF?
I would pick the treatment which costs me less and prevents illness earlier in the process and has the least chance of fucking me up over…any of these other treatments. But what do I know, my insurance SUCKS and I’m not rich.
Sloane Ranger
Friday in the UK we had 35,577 new cases. This is an increase of 5.1% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,
England – 28,836 (down 990)
Northern Ireland – 1039 (down 124)
Scotland – 2693 (down 218)
Wales – 3009 (up 429).
Deaths – There were 127 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is a decrease of 19.4% in the rolling 7-day average. 80 deaths were in England, 8 in Northern Ireland, 34 in Scotland and 5 in Wales.
Testing – 1,040,967 tests took place on Thursday, 20 September. This is an increase of 2.5% in the rolling 7-day average. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 831,597.
Hospitalisations – There were 6733 people in hospital and 815 on ventilators as of Thursday, 30 September. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was down by 12.2% as of 27 September.
Vaccinations – As of Thursday, 30 September, 48,863,490 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine and 44,901,832 were fully vaccinated. The Coronavirus Dashboard has a note saying that “The vaccination uptake percentages for the UK will not be updated while we work on a solution to include 12-15 year olds.” so I am unable to give you updated information concerning percentage of UK population currently vaccinated.
Robert Sneddon
@Shakti: I am somewhat cynical about this antiviral drug announcement for various reasons. Merck lost out in the vaccine stakes when they pulled their two COVID-19 vaccine candidates (V.590 and V.591) from trials after disappointing interim results. Their press-release trumpeting of an antiviral drug that has, if you massage the numbers, only 50% efficacy on a small sample of patients at a particular narrow time window in the progress of their infection sounds a little desperate to me.
It may turn out that this Hammer of Thor drug will do wonderful things in a million cases going forward, keeping people alive and returning better final outcomes but it in no way replaces tested vaccines.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — 2,515 new cases reported today. The test positivity rate is 7.3%. There were 17 new deaths reported overnight. ICU bed occupancy numbers are 66, up one from yesterday while hospitalisations are 965, down 18.
There were over 8,000 vaccinations carried out in Scotland yesterday (Friday) with about 65% of these being first vaccinations. 91.4% of 16+ adults are now vaccinated with their first dose and 84.5% are fully vaccinated. 71.8% of 16 and 17-year-olds have now received their first vaccination, up 0.2% from yesterday. 17.0% of 12-15 year olds have now received their first vaccination, up 1.2% from yesterday.
Amir Khalid
@Ken:
It won’t, of course: the name Mjolnir is from the old myths, and not a Marvel invention.
Gvg
@Robert Sneddon: I am not that impressed with the numbers either, but we do need better treatments for after catching Covid even with vaccines. I have actually been rather shocked at how bad the treatment progress has been so far.
if the future after we have vaccinated most of the world and covid settles in as endemic but not the biggest threat to the world….people will let their guard down and forget to get annual boosters or such or still be in countries without a lot of access, and we will have to treat people who get it. We need treatments.
I avoid getting my hopes to up on one candidate but I like hearing that their are tests being done.
Cermet
@mrmoshpotato: You mean once in the hospital it will reduce your stay and also likely prevent ICU and/or death. I seriously doubt the FDA will allow it to be sold over the counter ;)
Cermet
@Ken: Actually, aspirin is the drug that this effect was found to have the greatest effect. And small dose daily; not exactly difficult to follow or buy.
PAM Dirac
@Cermet:
This trial excluded people who were hospitalized or likely to be hospitalized in the next 48 hours. They get a vial of pills that they take at home. If the drug works as well as this study indicates, it could have have significant benefit for the stressed out and burned out hospital workers.
Wvng
@PAM Dirac: It is likely that fetal stem cell lines were used at some point in the development and/or testing of this drug, as I believe they were for Regeneron, which will have no impact on their acceptance in the god botherer crowd.
debbie
I am nervously waiting to get a booster, scheduled in about five hours.
Another Scott
@PAM Dirac: It does indeed sound promising, and we’re short of effective treatments. Both are welcome news.
But I’m reminded of my experience with the flu in the summer of 2019. Caught it in Nara, Japan. Flew home feeling miserable, but thought it was just a bad cold. Waited another day to get better, finally went to a walk-in clinic and was told I had waited too long to get tamiflu, so I had to tough it out. (It looks like a course of tamiflu is $25-40 on GoodRx.)
In this case, having to start the pills within 5 days of symptoms might also make getting them into people difficult in the real world. As will the cost. Will people be able to get a prescription over the phone? If so, what will prevent people who don’t need it hoarding it?
But, yay progress! More, please.
Cheers,
Scott.
PAM Dirac
@Another Scott: This treatment window was 5 days from onset of symptoms vs 2 days for Tamiflu, so a little bit more leeway. There are still many significant “ifs”, but fewer “ifs” than before. As Derek Lowe said at In the Pipeline: Every positive surprise in this pandemic is to be celebrated.
marklar
@Wvng:
Yup!
From Regeneron’s web-site: “Currently, there are limited research efforts employing human-induced pluripotent stem cell lines derived from adult human cells and human embryonic stem cells that are approved for research use by the National Institutes of Health and created solely through in vitro fertilization. Research using such stem cells allows Regeneron to model complex diseases, test new drug candidates and can help unlock new scientific insights that ultimately could lead to the discovery of new treatments for people with serious diseases.”
Yutsano
@Amir Khalid: You’re closer, good sir, but you’re missing an umlaut. It’s Mjölnir. Fortunately the vowel is the same as in German.
Ruckus
@Cermet:
And which many of us geezers already do.