Tropical Depression 9 is getting itself organized near Jamaica. Right now, all projections have it making landfall somewhere between central Louisiana and Mississippi by either Sunday or Monday.
18z models are tightly clustered on a track into south-central Louisiana, with a landfall Sunday into Monday.
This would put NOLA, BR, and Lafayette at the greatest risk for hurricane impacts. Now is the time to put your hurricane plan into action.#TropicalUpdate #TD9 #Ida? pic.twitter.com/MynnAlqwUz
— Dylan Federico (@DylanFedericoWX) August 26, 2021
The meteorologists are very worried that the storm track takes the depression over the Gulf Loop Current which has bath-tub warm (90 F or greater) water to the depth of 100+ feet. This is a tremendous amount of hot water and thus energy that could potentially allow for the storm to intensify very quickly into a major hurricane.
Since this storm is a fast mover, normal emergency prep times are being compressed.
Know what your plan is and make revocable steps to activate your major hurricane courses of action soon.
Elizabelle
Catclub reminds that Hurricane Katrina made landfall on August 29th.
cain
oh good – perhaps this will knock the current headlines out – the press loves an impending disaster coming up.
trollhattan
90-degree ocean water? A little hard for a Californian to imagine.
What if Biden’s Katrina isn’t named Katrina?
West of the Rockies
Any chance it can veer east and target-strike a certain cheesy resort owned by the tangerine turd?
Gravenstone
A friend in suburban NO posted a local weather service notice that it could be Cat 3+ by time of landfall, due to the Gulf conditions you noted.
The Moar You Know
Where’s my Sharpie? I gotta “update” that map.
Gin & Tonic
Boy, sure hope nobody there is injured and needs a hospital bed.
jonas
Good grief, how does any marine life survive in that?
trollhattan
Not just “way down in Dixie.”
Doc Sardonic
@jonas: Not well. This is part of the reason for the extended red tide along the SW Florida coast. Whole Gulf of Mexico is trying for the Guinness Book for world’s largest hot tub.
Ken
@jonas: Wikipedia is on it. There’s a bit in Charles Stross’ Saturn’s Children where after humanity’s extinction, the
robotsposthumans didn’t see much need to keep up the climate mitigation measures, but realized their mistake when the Gulf of Mexico came to a boil. The near-extinction of multicellular eukaryotic life put a definite crimp in their plans to bring back humanity.Another Scott
Stay safe and be prepared.
There are lots of thunderstorm warnings going off in the DC area – “70 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail”… One could hear the thunderstorm during the WH live feed before the press thing (now scheduled for 5pm ET).
Cheers,
Scott.
NotMax
Who will be the first media “expert” to pontificate “This could be New Orleans’ Katrina?”
//
Elizabelle
@Another Scott: I love a good T storm. Except when it like closes the pool, or hits the beach or something. Or flying. Or driving. Watching from inside. Is thrilling.
Origuy
@trollhattan: I wonder how many of the Sacramento hospitalizations are of county residents and how many are from the surrounding counties. I was through the area a few weeks ago and it seemed like masking was sporadic. Some of those counties in the area don’t have a lot of hospital capacity. Sacramento has some huge hospitals.
Ken
What does “non-revocable” mean in this context?
Starfish
This is fine. People will go to an evacuation center and give each other COVID. It will work out well.
encephalopath
I am imagining a tropical storm waiting the the Green Room for the call.
trollhattan
@Origuy:
Good question. The Sac metro area comprises seven counties and we have most of the major hospitals.
If we start turning patients away, where do they go?
Gravenstone
deleted
Yarrow
@encephalopath: It’s already a Tropical Storm according to Best Track. It will be Ida at the next update.
Ken
@Starfish: It happened three or four times last year. Were there any studies on the effect the evacuations had on cases?
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
Probably to the Bay Area. It’s reasonably close by, and its hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed right now. Southern California also seems to have some hospital capacity, though it’s obviously a lot less convenient.
mrmoshpotato
@trollhattan:
What if Biden actually helps Louisiana right away, unlike that sack of shit war criminal who let a great city drown?
VeniceRiley
I like to go here and click the loops. You can see the storm building https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php
mrmoshpotato
@Gin & Tonic:
Same.
trollhattan
@Roger Moore: Probably that for now. Eastern county residents can probably go to Reno; Washoe County doesn’t present hospital capacity on their Covid pages, but does have a flashy 20% positive test rate.
trollhattan
@mrmoshpotato:
Hoping nobody named Brown was brought into the administration.
Yarrow
FYI, the GFS model is showing another storm right behind it, possibly aiming for Louisiana just after Labor Day. Could be a ghost storm but something to keep in mind. Long range forecast does pick it up.
mrmoshpotato
@Yarrow:
It should scare the other storm to death and eat its ghost.
(h/t The Curse of the Cannibal Ghost of the Haunted House on Horror Hill)
cmorenc
Oh, great. Chris Cillizza punditsplains why “A Herschel Walker candidacy is a total nightmare for Senate Republicans“. Now that Cillizza has arguably replaced Bill Kristol as the most frequently, insipidly wrong pundit, this is not reassuring.
dr. bloor
@jonas:
If this summer is any indication, they move north to feed on Cape Codders.
mrmoshpotato
@cmorenc: Give Chris credit for doing what he knows – how to be a slapdick on TV.
Geminid
@cmorenc: I don’t watch video, but from what I know about Herschel Walker and Georgia, the headline for Cillizza’s piece is correct. Walker would be a weak candidate.
zeecube
Presently aimed to pass just left of my home by 60 miles. Tracking models usually change between now and landfall, but looks like if it does, would curve closer to me. Present plan is to stay in place versus travelling to other Covid hotspots. Made a run to the store to pick up some provisions. Still somewhat well stocked except only greens left on shelf is kale (blech).
Not my first hurricane. Been through Betsy, Camille and Katrina, just to name a few.
Steeplejack
@Another Scott:
Calm here in Threadkill Lane, but dark with rumblings in the distance. Kind of pleasant, actually. And the temperature dropped below 80°, also nice.
Martin
@Roger Moore: Yeah, things down here not terrible. 20% ICU bed availability right now in OC. Things might be leveling off.
banditqueen
Well, should it be necessary at least we can rest assured that Gov Abbot has a plan in place for ensuring the safe evacuation of patients in the ICUs of those hospitals in the track of this storm. Why, they can be transferred to inland ICUs–oh wait, there aren’t any that aren’t maxed out or close to it. Horrible human being.
catclub
so we can’t even get full sized hail? This is worse than mayonaise inflation
Another Scott
@catclub: [snort!]
Cheers,
Scott.
catclub
@mrmoshpotato: Also hope nobody is in a hospital that loses power and has to be evacuated.
mrmoshpotato
@catclub:
That too!
david
Too far east. Damn. Summer continues.
Cermet
@Another Scott: Northeast of Baltimore is enjoying interesting lighting activity and fair amount of rain. Pleasant, actually – cooled a bit from 92 to 84 F. Glad we aren’t California!
CaseyL
@cmorenc: I read that and had the same exact response.
MomSense
It’s all so sad. The states that will likely be hit by this storm are all suffering a crisis of their own making. It would have been so much better to skip all this COVID tragedy and just get their damn shots. Life throws plenty of storms at us that are outside of our control. Seems so foolish to create more for ourselves.
Sending my prayers and love to all the jackals in harm’s way. Please check in end let us know you are ok.
nclurker
quite often,gulf storms end up here in nw n.c.
as the remnants of fred knocked a tree thru my metal roof last week.
the repairs are due to be completed two days after this storm hits the coast next week.
hate to wish this on anyone else,but….
i’ll be watching closely.
Matt McIrvin
It’s Tropical Storm Ida now.
Matt McIrvin
@nclurker: It kept going, too. Here in Massachusetts, I had more trouble from the remnants of Fred than from Henri.
Ken
The projections have Ida making a rightward turn after it makes landfall, and running the length of Tennessee, so a chance of more flooding there.
The Mugster
Non-revocable = Don’t plan on ever coming back.
WaterGirl
@The Mugster: Oh. I hadn’t caught that that’s what Dave meant.
Yikes. That paints a clear picture, doesn’t it. Double yikes.
Yarrow
@WaterGirl: No. He edited it. Check the original post.
The Mugster
@Yarrow: Oops…sorry. I should maybe refresh my browser more often. Damn multitasking!
Gvg
@Yarrow: This is pretty normal. All summer long most years there are tropical depressions forming in strings about 7 to 10 days apart. Most of them fizzle. In an active year like 2004 there will be several in a row. That year, they formed just of the west coast of Africa, and came across the Atlantic. When they got closer, they started taking different tracks, but the seeds of the storms all started along the same track, curiously evenly spaced. I have seen that pattern some other years too. It happens over in the pacific as well.
But most of them fizzle, so don’t panic. You only know about them if the weather news pulls back and does wide angle views.
currawong
This was a really thorough explainer of the storm development I watched this morning from WWLT in Noew Orleans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwAK0RPbrNg