Since we need a new open thread, here’s one.
And since I’m going to go out and see if I can avoid heat stroke doing today’s workout before the heat index gets above 105, I don’t have time to do a full post. But I do want to put in two quick housekeeping notes as teasers.
I am tracking on both YY_Sima Qian’s and lowtechcyclist’s request for more information in the dead, bitter dregs of the comments of my post on Biden’s remarks yesterday. The former for some explanation on whether there was or was not an intelligence failure regarding the stability of the Afghan government and security forces and the latter on what the US has been doing in or in regard to Yemen.
I’ll try to get to these in the next couple of days. A quick, short answer is that in regard to the intelligence about Afghanistan, from what has been publicly reported there both was and was not an intelligence failure. What do I mean by this? Specifically that senior leaders went on the record with assessments that the government was stable and the Afghan National Security and Defense Forces would not simply stop functioning. GEN Milley actually provided the following assessment to Congress this past July:
“A significant amount of territory has been seized over the course of six, eight, 10 months by the Taliban, so momentum appears to be — strategic momentum appears to be — sort of with the Taliban,” Milley said.
Milley said that while the Taliban are attempting to create the impression that their victory over the U.S.-backed Kabul government is inevitable, he believes the Afghan military and police have the training and equipment to prevail. He said he would not rule out a negotiated political settlement with the Taliban, nor would he exclude “a complete Taliban takeover.”
“I don’t think the end game is yet written,” he said.
He covered every possible outcome there. At the same time that GEN Milley was being optimistic, we had the assessments from the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction that were far, far, far more pessimistic about how the Afghan government and the ANSDF would function.
In regard to the US and Yemen, that role has changed a lot over the years. A lot of it has involved providing logistics and acquisition support to the Saudis in their war against the Houthis and al Qaeda in Yemen/al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. There was also the ongoing and often expanded use of drones* to attack high value terrorist targets, like Anwar al Awlaki, from over the horizon. We’ve also had Special Operations raids, such as the one that went tragically wrong during the first month of the Trump administration back in 2017. A lot of the Yemen problem set, for lack of a better term, is constant for decades. The British had an al Awlaki problem, we have an al Awlaki problem. The British had a Yemeni tribal problem, we have a Yemeni tribal problem. The British had an unstable and not always trustworthy government they were partnered with, we’re dealing with a not always stable and not always trustworthy government. Etc, etc. The difference is that the British had the ability to redefine where Yemen fit within their strategic objectives. They decided they did not need a coaling station in Yemen, declared victory in what was up to that point a fairly unsuccessful counterinsurgency campaign to protect Aden and the coaling station, and went home. We can’t just do that. And, as a result, we lurch along year to year in regard to Yemen.
More to follow.
Obligatory given the heat index:
Open thread!
* Edited to add the drones.
bbleh
That’s a great video!
(And he has good taste in beer.)
Ken
Why not?
Kent
Saw this via the AP in my local paper this morning. Seems pretty significant. Anyone know what is going on?
raven
Since my mobility is limited I’m confined to “aqua jogging”, kind of good because the heat and humidity don’t factor in.
Major Major Major Major
Thanks, looking forward to reading more about the intel situation. Milley’s statement seems pretty content free.
Villago Delenda Est
I just love that vid of the Sergeant Major “correcting” the purchases of Marines.
Ten Bears
I approve of that message …
M31
“and don’t forget to hydrate!”
*honk*
“make that 3 hard boiled eggs”
Scout211
@Kent:
This is the first ruling and it will likely be appealed immediately.
This article has a little more detail and last night someone posted a link to the actual ruling in one of the downstairs threads.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article253647838.html
rikyrah
Damn ?
Kat 4 Obama (@Kat4Obama) tweeted at 4:49 PM on Fri, Aug 20, 2021:
Vaccinated mother tried to convince her adult sons to protect themselves, but they refused the shots. All got COVID-19. She lived and her sons died. https://t.co/aIHPVHp72g
(https://twitter.com/Kat4Obama/status/1428836641284583428?s=03)
Steeplejack
I wonder how many of our “intelligence failures”—not just in Afghanistan but elsewhere—are the result of a “can’t see the trees for the forest” bias. That is, absorbed by the big picture but blind to the small, telling details. General Milley at the 50,000-foot level says, “Yeah, they’re getting the equipment and training they need.” (Look at all those MRAPs parked at the motor pool!) But it seems to have come as a big surprise to everyone that things were not so great at the “street” level. (“That Afghan regiment I visited last week has a 70% no-show rate, and the guys over at Police Station #248 are bitching that they haven’t been paid in a year.”)
Just hypothesizing here, but where do those connections get made? Do those connections get made? And I see this as a failure of journalism just as much as one of intelligence. How could Richard Engel et al. be in country for so long and miss so much? Possibly rhetorical question there.
Steeplejack
@raven:
My RWNJ brother (overweight, bad knees) has had success with aqua jogging and aquarobics (or whatever they call it). You can get a pretty good workout.
Hope your mobility improves. It takes time after surgery.
Adam L Silverman
@Ken: 1) We aren’t actually there in the way the British were. We’re not occupying it. 2) Because the Saudi’s actions drove the Houthis, who are Fiver Shi’a into the orbit of the Iranians who are Twelver Shi’a, we have an Iranian proxy sitting at the mouth of the Red Sea. 3) And because Yemen is seriously unstable in terms of government and governance, it has become a transit way between the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, a bed down location, and a training location for a variety of violent extremist Islamic groups.
Adam L Silverman
And we have thunder and lightning, but a clear blue sky. So no workout right now.
Adam L Silverman
Because I knew I forgot something in regard to Yemen, I’ve added a sentence in the post about how the US has also been using drones to target and kill high value terrorist targets in Yemen from over the horizon.
Mike in NC
The always wrong god-botherer Cal Thomas has a column out entitled “Biden’s Surrender in Afghanistan”, proving that he’s blissfully unaware that Trump and Pompeo pre-surrendered to the Taliban in Doha last year, turning loose 5000 fanatical fighters and blindsiding the Afghan government in order to bug out as fast as possible.
rikyrah
Uh huh
Uh huh ?
Dr. William Horne (@wihorne) tweeted at 11:46 AM on Sat, Aug 21, 2021:
I was going to say exactly this. The opposition to vaccines & masking is overwhelmingly shaped by white supremacy & especially the (false) eugenic belief that white ppl are superior & immune from COVID.
(https://twitter.com/wihorne/status/1429122833779675141?s=03)
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Yemen has always seemed very complex to me, from what little I know about it. I remember hearing about the Communists in South Yemen in the 1970s and how it was horrible that the Cubans were supporting them, etc., etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Yemen
There’s an underlying cold-war legacy here that isn’t helping and very rarely gets talked about. The context of any news in the region seems to go no farther back than the late 1970s issues between the US and Iran.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Suzanne
@rikyrah:
I just do not understand others’ risk tolerance at all. I am the kind of person who frets a lot about pretty unlikely things. This is just bonkers to me, even apart from white supremacy.
raven
@Steeplejack: Yea, I like it. I can listen to music making the 45 minutes I’m up to pretty tolerable!
debbie
No idea how many times I’ve seen that video, but the ending always cracks me up!
Nettoyeur
JimV
https://www.sarahchayes.org/post/the-ides-of-august
I highly recommend this assessment by someone who has been involved since the invasion, first as a reporter, then as a (USA) government official, finally as part of a humanitarian organization.
Steeplejack (phone)
@raven:
Cool. ??♂️
Mary G
Are we still helping MBS bomb civilians in Yemen? It seemed like Biden started off well with refusing to sell more weapons to KSA, but the refusal to condemn the murder of Jamal Khashoggi very strongly is disappointing. And I am not sure our drone strikes are always as accurate and surgical as they are cracked up to be. I am so tired of seeing starving children in Yemen.
Kent
@Scout211: Of course Biden’s DOL could completely over-ride the CA law, simply by passing new regulations vis a vis gig workers.
The obvious solution is to make all employers of gig workers pay into social security, medicare, and unemployment regardless of how the workers themselves are “classified”. There is no reason why contractors shouldn’t be part of those programs too. That would solve most of the issues. In other words, every single 1099 would be required to pay into the same programs and make the same deductions as every W2.
debbie
@JimV:
Sarah’s great. Before she joined the government, she started up a bunch of women-owned small businesses in Afghanistan. I believe she pioneered this.
Gin & Tonic
Had lunch, now it seems like time to start preparing the homestead for Henri. Gorgeous sunny day, but tomorrow won’t be.
Kent
For people with normal insurance it is just going to mean your Covid treatment expenses are going to be part of your deductible like any other ordinary medical expense. If you have a high deductible plan then that could be several thousand dollars.
People without insurance are going to be utterly screwed. They will face medical bankruptcy for a 2-week ICU stay. And the true evangelical MAGAts who have gotten those fake religious-based health co-op plans that aren’t real insurance to avoid OBAMACARE cooties are going to be screwed as well. Those plans aren’t going to have remotely enough cash reserves to pay for that MAGA hordes.
Finally, ordinary un-vaxed MAGAts in red states who have been medivaced to other states hundreds of miles away for their Covid treatments because their own hospitals are full up are going to face ruinous expenses as well even if they have insurance because that alternate hospital 2-states away is liable to be “out of network” and the helicopter or 500 mile ambulance ride may not be covered as well.
eclare
@Kent: A friend of mine took about a 45 minute helicopter ride after falling down a flight of stairs. Cost? $30k. Luckily her insurance covered it.
Pharniel
By way of Sarah Hightower On the homefront, looks like Joshua Caleb Sutter (publisher of Martinet Press) and O9A Temple ov Blood broseph was a CI.
The US government paid him 6 figures a year to continue to publish “hey kids, wanna know how to make serin and where Aum went wrong?” and also keep various hatenovels that inspire murders (most recently in Russia). Hurray.
Miss Bianca
@Villago Delenda Est: I know, I just watched it again myself. I like to think that my Grandpa (one-star Marine General) would have got a kick out of it and had it on auto-repeat.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: The other issue is that Yemen is tribal, but the tribal dynamic is really unique. It’s based on geo-colocation of groups rather than kinship groups themselves. So trying to work through that dynamic gets confusing and frustrating real fast. This is very different than what we deal with in Iraq and most other Arab societies that still have tribal kinship dynamics.
It also show that the term itself is of limited utility without context. I’ve seen tribe and tribal bandied about for over a week now in regard to Afghanistan, but the simple reality is that Afghanistan doesn’t have tribes. Yes, it has kinship group based social and political and economic dynamics, but they’re not tribal. The Pashtun khels, which are usually shorthanded in English as tribes, aren’t tribes in that their internal dynamics for hierarchy and authority and leadership aren’t necessarily the result of the most senior member of the most senior and strongest family within the kinship group. So while, for example, Iraqi tribal dynamics can be mapped pretty easily and are easy to follow when presented graphically, Afghan kinship dynamics often look like spin art or a Jackson Pollock painting when displayed graphically. This is also why al Qaeda had trouble in Iraq, when it tried to replicate its infiltrate the kinship groups practices there. Unlike Afghanistan, where the AQ guys would marry into the Pashtun families and then take over the khels, when they tried this in Iraq they pissed off the sheikhs, the sub-sheikhs, and their eldest sons. This was partially responsible for the Awakening movement in Anbar.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
Good luck. I remember a hurricane in the mid-80s that hit NYC. I hadn’t listened to the news the night before, and riding the bus to work, I couldn’t imagine why it was empty and so many windows were taped up. I ended up leaving work and dealing with sideways rain all the way home. The eye, though, was freaky. Silence and suniness, then right back into the rain and wind.
raven
@Kent: Xin Loi mofo’s!
Nettoyeur
@Kent: Those who get screwed will put up GoFundMe links and howl to govts for special bailouts. Then what, I wonder. In a normal country not infected with white supremacy prosperity gospel, it could lead to universal health care. Can’t have that coz Those People.
Adam L Silverman
@Pharniel: That’s like neo-NAZI-ception.
raven
@Miss Bianca: “All I want from my Marines is for them to obey my orders like they are the word of God”!
bbleh
@Suzanne: @rikyrah: I think some of that is in turn a fallback position: for whatever reasons — ignorance, lack of experience in critical thinking, cognitive limitations, social pressure, emotional limitations, or some gemisch of them all — some people simply CAN’T think straight about COVID, so they fall back on simpler rules of thumb: go with my gut, do as the people around me do, in-group-good-others-bad, ignore (and/or rationalize away) the problem and it will go away.
Or here’s another way I sometimes think about it: how would a 6-year-old deal with COVID (or any situation / choice where I’m left scratching my head about the MAGAts) if left to his/her own understanding and choices?
SpaceUnit
I’ve never been in the military or a firefight and so I have absolutely no standing whatsoever to critique anyone’s valor on the field of battle. You don’t need to be Rambo though to recognize that a military that lays down its weapons and abandons its post without firing a shot reflects a society that’s willing to bet on its own defeat. I have to assume that there was an overall culture of failure and learned hopelessness. It’s a tragedy unto itself, but I don’t know how US Army Intelligence could gauge such a thing or factor it into their calculations. It’s too abstract.
Mo Salad
Can we add “…and don’t forget to hydrate” to our rotating taglines?
raven
@SpaceUnit: You know how you can tell an ARVN rifle? Never fired and only dropped once.
Kent
But it appears that for the past year the Taliban have been paying off Afghan Army soldiers at every level to lay down their weapons and walk away when the time was right. Lots of recent reporting to that effect. If true, the failure of the US military to detect that was happening is a MONUMENTAL intelligence failure on their part.
You don’t have to dig deep into the mind of the average Afghan soldier. You only have to follow the money.
Kent
My theory is that without the Confederate South, the US would more or less look like Canada. Which isn’t a perfect nation by any means, but they do have universal health care and don’t start very many wars.
SpaceUnit
@Kent: True, but I can’t imagine that it would so so widespread if there’d been any real semblance of national pride. Something was broken.
SpaceUnit
@raven: Had to go look up ARVN. So US Intelligence should have smelled it?
Kent
@SpaceUnit: Chicken and egg I guess. I’m just pushing back on the notion that the US military couldn’t have known. What kind of intelligence operations do they have if they can’t detect that sort of massive flow of money?
Sister Golden Bear
The good: Storage pod arrived, so I can move all the clutter out of the house while I’m remodeling. Plus it’s 5-10 cooler than normal.
The bad: They left it at angle, just touching the road, and county issues a “fix it” complaint on my permit, because it needs traffic cones and hazard tape. (Fair enough.)
The ugly: I need to move a bunch of stuff, and the air quality is at hazardous levels thanks to all the fires. Tempted to wait, but there’s no guarantee things will get better any time soon. Thankfully, I’ve got a stock of KN94 masks, and a P100 mask if needed. Still, ugh.
SpaceUnit
@Kent: US commanders and generals would be heavily invested in this operation. They would have been looking to advance their careers and make their reputations. Further down the chain of command though I wonder if a lot of the soldiers didn’t just want to go home and were happy to pass on what their superiors wanted to hear in hopes it would get them home sooner.
I really wouldn’t blame them. It just shows the limits and pitfalls of foreign occupation.
DB11
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the OP and especially this comment on the differences in tribal/kinship ties. Very enlightening.
Nobdy in particular
@Kent:
It’s not just cabs, rides. If you like to go to a bar and hear live music, are the musicians independent contractors or employees?
Answer: Neither and they usually have to pay to play at the establishment but do get to put out a tip jar. That’s because the club owners out here like to “collude” with one another to exploit artists, the journeyman musicians. No labor should be taxed. Period. Any Nobel Laureate would agree even though the Nobel Family has condemned the Econ award as a PR coup by economists. Most of them are just propagandists and quite full of shit and arguing about who or what is an employee or an independent contractor. The Labor Theory of Value And Land Value Taxation would probably fix it all.
But don’t hold your breath. It will never happen.
NoraLenderbee
@debbie:
Huricane Gloria, 1985? It hit the mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
Sure Lurkalot
@debbie: I remember the eye of a hurricane on Long Island when I was 6 or 7 (way back in the 60’s). It was weird.
I guess I’m one of the onlies who had never seen the very funny Marine video. Gonna share it with my DH when he comes in from whatever it is that DH’s do.
Eunicecycle
@Sister Golden Bear: I hope you have some help! Good luck!
Suzanne
@NoraLenderbee: I remember Hurricane Gloria. I was a kid, living in Huntington, NY. It was scary, we were without power for days.
Another Scott
@SpaceUnit: OTOH, if one has to live with the new rulers after the “invaders” leave and the existing government has shown itself to be corrupt and incompetent, then it makes sense to welcome the new boss. As I understand it, many, many cultures have similar traditions. In 20-30 years (or less) the cycle starts up again, maybe with better results, and one doesn’t want to be cannon fodder before then if one can help it.
Cheers,
Scott.
JoyceH
@Kent:
But what made that tactic more compelling is the fact that most Afghan soldiers hadn’t been paid in months.
And BTW, when we’re involved in other countries, can we please STOP ignoring rampant corruption because ‘it’s their culture’? Whether or not corruption is tolerated in other cultures, it’s never been celebrated as a virtue, and any culture where the soldiers go unpaid because their commander stole the payroll is not a culture deserving of delicate and respectful Prime Directive treatment.
Anonymous At Work
Sweet sweet summer children. In South Florida, you can’t get an hour’s exercise outside in before it hits 105 on heat index. It’ll either be raining or sometime between 3:30 and 4 am.
mrmoshpotato
So true.
dmsilev
@Suzanne: In the Boston area, I remember it as not being too bad. We had to protect some of the bigger windows on my parents’ house, just in case, and there was a lot of rain, but that was about it. Some of the non-hurricane nor’easters were worse.
WaterGirl
@Major Major Major Major: Miley: “It might be fine, or it might be a clusterfuck.”
Absolutely worthless. Unless you want to cover your ass. Still worthless, but not wrong.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Stay safe.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Nominated.
WaterGirl
@Baud: So happy that you are back. Were you away on an exotic vacation? Surely not in jail. Probably somewhere in between, I guess.
SpaceUnit
@Another Scott: So all along we were unconsciously projecting an idealism for which they’d never had any use. Their history and experiences had made them merely pragmatic.
debbie
@NoraLenderbee:
Timewise, I think you’re right. I worked in that neighborhood from 1984 to 1986. Thanks!
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Let’s just say some type of bondage was involved.
dave
@Steeplejack: Anecdotal but my experience there in 2011-2012 would say it was actually far worse than that. Not recognizing certain districts were quiet because they were defacto Taliban, large swathes of the ANP and ANA completely corrupted (though true not sure I like using that phrase for situation), reporting that was massaged as it worked it’s way up, complete fantasy budgets and org charts, etc etc. It was an utter shit show.
Now maybe that was my little corner but I’d say that events demonstrate it is more ubiquitous. Also possible there is good analysis going on but the public face was presented differently for various reasons that I would not be particularly sympathetic towards.
StringOnAStick
@Another Scott: I heard someone with ties to Afghanistan say the same thing; when it’s obvious a new boss is coming into power, the smart move is to act welcoming even if you aren’t. He said it like this is understood there as just showing common sense. This is also a country that’s been in a state of war since the Russian invasion in the 80’s, so that colours how and what people think about how to just keep surviving.
Demographically, Afghanistan is a very young country, the majority of whom were not around for Taliban 1.0 and those in the cities have grown up with lots of exposure to western culture. This could complicate the plans of 2.0, who are also apparently fairly young too. It could, but it just as likely won’t.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Honeymoon?
different-church-lady
@Baud: Seconded.
Brachiator
@Kent:
Uh, no. It is not that simple.
Also, no.
Between the California courts and the California state legislature, there are all kinds of competing and inconsistent regulations at play here. And under current federal law you cannot force independent contractors to treat 1099 income like a W2.
StringOnAStick
@dave: Sounds like the status quo was already well established when you were there, and pretty much stayed that way.
I’d like to put a plug in for Sarah Chayes’ book from probably 10 years ago about her experience living and working in Afghanistan; I knew after reading it that our involvement would end with just walking away but only after we wasted billions more and far, far too many lives lost on all sides. I also think idiot 45 made it worse, first by stopping all SIV processing (Stephen Miller saw to that) and by hanging out to dry the existing government and every soldier and policeman who wasn’t corrupt and wanted the country to succeed, however few or many that was. Deeply, deeply cynical.
Chris
@StringOnAStick:
Once again Afghanistan is reminding me of Italy.
Supposedly in the World Wars there were shopkeepers who literally had signs in German, French, and English, all ready to go depending on who was marching through that day.
JoyceH
On a new subject, what do you folk think about boosters? I plan to gallop right out and get a booster the moment they tell me I can.
StringOnAStick
@Chris: We have this Hollywood based idea that all wars have clear cut lines, freedom fighters who stay true in the face of all odds, a citizenry who risk all to help the brave and possibly doomed fight for what is right, or at least right currently. I suspect it’s a lot more common that the noncoms are always keeping their finger in the wind to see which way has the highest likelihood of survival. People just want to live their lives. I can’t blame the Afghans who can’t get out for trying to survive another change in who is in charge
James E Powell
@Chris:
Catch-22 covers a lot of ground.
Richard
@Ken:
Why not? They don’t want us. If they want to be Afghanistan, we should just let them be. God knows they have been fighting and suffering for centuries. It is not our business to mess with them.
I think the Taliban is a really bad idea. I think their religion is really stupid. I have no respect for Sharia law. But it is not for me to say. They are intelligent and can decide for themselves.
They should let the people who want to leave, they should let them leave. That will be how we know who they are.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
From your FDA. The usual suspects are in dispute with it…
https://twitter.com/US_FDA/status/1429050070243192839?s=20
Another Scott
@JoyceH: Same here. Until we know that they aren’t good, anything that increases our resilience against the virus is a good thing.
Good luck.
(It it really is 8 months for the booster, then it would be early January for me…)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@WaterGirl: haha. No, but I like the way your mind works.
SpaceUnit
Perhaps in the future we should not get involved in a land war in Asia. It’s one of the classic blunders.
Brachiator
@JoyceH:
I haven’t really followed this yet. Is it that boosters are good for everyone, or mainly the most vulnerable?
Will we soon need boosters for our boosters?
What if there is a successor to the Delta variant that we have to deal with?
eclare
@JoyceH: Absolutely. Eight months for me is December 23.
Yutsano
Oh my fucking Lawd Clarissa Ward you fucking hack shut up! This is not about you.
Richard
@Steeplejack:
I am sorry that you have a rightwing nutjob brother. It is not easy.
I know this. But! It is good that he is telling you about his aquatic exercises. That means he is still going and still your brother.
Bless his heart.
topclimber
@SpaceUnit: You would still have Protestant evangelism, which you don’t get in Canada. So you lose the good (abolitionism) and the bad (compulsive anti-intellectualism).
But losing the South would be a definite plus, except for the non-Confederates and black folks who couldn’t vote with their feet.
ETA: This was for Kent but you are welcome to it.
Another Scott
@SpaceUnit: History doesn’t change until it does.
I pointed us to a couple of CFR sources a few days ago that I found useful.
(Testimony from 1998)
(Emphasis added.)
Three years of drought in run up to 9/11 didn’t help the political stability either.
Things could potentially have turned out differently in several places in the timeline, but factionalism prevented it. A weak central government with stronger “states” and localities probably makes sense in such situations…
Cheers,
Scott.
Richard
@Brachiator:
I figure i will go get a booster in October or November. It is a personal decision. I’m an old man, but i still love the world.
Yutsano
@Richard: My youngest brother and his wife went RWNJ long before Dolt45*. My younger is Libertarian. Older brother and his husband are Bernie humpers. Thanksgiving is always…entertaining.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Richard:
Thanks. Things are pretty civil. He knows not to bring up politics, but I do see his Facebook feed. I was pleasantly surprised to find that he is pro-vaccination. And he never seems to mention Trump, which I take as a good sign. But he is a major gun nut and “fake news” ranter.
SpaceUnit
@Another Scott: so in other words, it’s perfectly designed to be the graveyard of empires. Who knew?
rikyrah
@raven:
The water..
Sigh…
I miss the water?
rikyrah
The video is????
Yutsano
@Yutsano: Forgot my parenthetical again dammit!
I stoled Dolt45 from rijyrah. Until evidence proves otherwise that’s my epithet.
Scout211
@JoyceH:
We both plan to get them but will definitely wait until the 8 months past fully vaccinated date as per the CDC. For us, that would be mid-November.
In the meantime, I have to get Shingrix #2 so I need some space between the Shingrix #2 and the COVID #3. I waited way too long to start my Shingrix vaccinations. I should have done it years ago but oh well. My reactions to both the Shingrix #1 and the Moderna #2 were pretty awful but I will definitely get both.
I think COVID #3 is more crucial for my husband because he is older and had almost zero reaction to the Moderna #2. I was in misery for two days. It would seem that my immune system is a bit more robust than his.
SpaceUnit
@topclimber: Better still, we could gift-wrap the entirety of the confederate south and hand it over to Mexico. That would be fun on so many levels.
zhena gogolia
@rikyrah:
Yeah, I have to watch it every time.
zhena gogolia
I’d like to ask Gin&Tonic what he does to prepare for the hurricane. My method is refreshing Weather Underground every 20 seconds and then putting my head under the covers.
SpaceUnit
@topclimber: and then we could erect a border wall.
Earl
Adam —
I’d be curious what your take is on consequences for these military officers that either (1) lied, or (2) are so wrong that their assessments are not meaningfully distinguishable from lies.
Percysowner
@Scout211: Moderna 2 hit me hard as well. Shigrex was a true pain in the arm. It hurt for a week. I’ll be 8 months out of the second vax in mid-November. I see my doctor before then, and I’ll do what they say. I’ve been doing what the scientists and doctors say so far, so I’ll keep on doing that. I also mask up everywhere and do curbside pickup whenever I can, so I’m being as safe as possible.
J R in WV
@WaterGirl:
But remember, Gen Miley speaking in public isn’t obilgated to be pessimistic, and is allowed to be optimistic, especially if the pessimism might cause things to go all cluster-fucked way more quickly than being optimistic.
He’s working as a PR guy in public speaking, not as a commanding general.
But, yeah, personally, I agree that abandoning the major air base — Bagram ? — and depending upon the civilian and much smaller Kabul airport was criminally stupid.
Richard
@Yutsano:
My best Thanksgiving was with my homie at the time. I had a crush on him but because we are decent people it was not a problem.
His Dad and Mom came all the way from Columbia South Carolina to see that boy because he was thinking about getting married. It turned out pretty good. They invited me to join them for the meal.
Their home town is Saluda, SC.
Anyway, it was a potential problem because Fabiana is from Ecuador. There will be problems.
But everything turned out ok. I am so proud of them.
I still think about them and i know that they are my friends.
Another Scott
Ian Fritz at The Atlantic vis GovExec:
A clear, unvarnished, look at the war. Be prepared – some parts are disturbing.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kay
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I don’t think “the 19th” is an error. I think they exclude some of the presidents now. You all know who was first off the list.
Dan B
@rikyrah: Personal stories are powerful. TFG’s minions set up HIPPA regs to squelch stories from people in hospital because they knew they would lose the propaganda war.
Dan B
@rikyrah: Thanks for this explanation of the connection between vaccine resistance and white supremacy. It’s mind boggling that people feel that human beings fit automatically into superior and inferior categories. I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that reminds me of the nausea I felt singing Dixie in elementary school in Arkansas.
Dan B
@JoyceH: There are reports from credible medical professionals that you should get tested to determine your antibody levels first. If they are high a booster can result in inflammatory response that effectively reduces your immune system. Eight months after your last shot is the minimum. If you are immune compromised then get tested and plan on a booster.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks very much.
There’s so much interesting history of the peoples in the Near East and nearby. Bactria, etc., etc. We (as western people and especially politicians) really should be much more humble in thinking we understand what’s going on over there.
Cheers,
Scott.
JoyceH
@Scout211:
I got Shingrix 2 yesterday – sore shoulder is all I’m experiencing. As for ‘years ago’, don’t beat yourself up too bad – Shingrix was only approved in 2017 and the predecessor vaccine was a lot less effective.
OldDave
@Kay: there have been nineteen Republican Presidents from Lincoln to TFG.
Kay
@OldDave:
These are the same people who are screaming that their version of US history must be taught to 5th graders- the 19 presidents people.
Splitting Image
@OldDave:
I don’t think that’s what their logic is. There’s an insane theory that a secret coup overthrew the “real” U.S. government back in 1870 or so. The last legitimate president was Grant, the 18th. Donald the Magnificent is going to restore the real, original constitution and assume office as the 19th president of the united States.
According to the theory, one way to distinguish between the real government and the fake one is that the fake government capitalizes the U in “United States”. The fake government also added – or removed, I forget which – the fringe on the flag, so if a so-called government agency is flying the wrong flag, they don’t have to obey it.
Insane is possibly an understatement.
JoyceH
@Splitting Image:
In the Navy, we called the guys who relied on that kind of yarn ‘sea lawyers’. Once a fellow who was suspected of a crime came in and gave a full confession. Then he sat back and said smugly, “And you can’t use a word of that. It’s not a valid confession unless there’s a flag in the room.” (Of course, he was wrong…)
Subsole
@rikyrah:
There better be a cold, lonely circle of hell for every talking head at Fox.
I mean, that’s like something out of the Great Plague of Medieval Europe.
Subsole
@Suzanne:
Bigotry makes you stupid, because it inevitably demands you sacrifice your eyes, heart, and mind for the sake of your pride.
Soprano2
@JoyceH: My husband said when he was a captain at Ft. Wood a soldier who was an activated reservist went AWOL. When he got caught and was brought in to plead his case, he told a sob story about his girl cheating on him back home, blah blah blah. Hubby was going to go easy on him until he said “You can’t do anything to me because I’m a reservist”. Wrong thing to say, hubby threw the book at him! Idiot.
Another Scott
@Soprano2: I wonder if other cultures are as enamored with the “one weird trick” / “get out of jail free card” / etc. as too many Americans are.
At least in 1000 and one Nights, there was more than one wish…
(sigh)
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
Happy threads are upstairs, so I’ll put this here.
(via Popehat)
Jackson was vaccinated in January.
:-(
Be careful out there.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Some. Since I finally just got me workout in, and since I’m sitting for ten before I walk the four foots, let me answer this a bit. There are entire societies that function on conspiracy theories. A good chunk of the Middle East functions this way. But it does it for different reasons than the US. It does it because all of those states and societies have been run by several different varieties of authoritarians. As a result, no one believes anything the government tells them unless they have to because they’re interacting with someone from or a part of the government. Despite Israel being a bit different, frankly I’d say unique as both a liberal parliamentary democracy and a garrison state and society at the same time with a heavy overlay from the Holocaust and 2,000 years of anti-Semitism, it is also very susceptible to conspiracy theories. Bibi has been capitalizing on this his entire political career.
In the case of the US, I think it has to do with a combination of social and religious factors going back to before the US was the US. Some of this is the result of the Pilgrims and the Puritans that founded a lot of the original colonies. Where nature and the world is satanic and everyone must guard against sin and being led astray. So everything worked on gossip and innuendo and wishful religious thinking. The founders had a cottage industry of conspiracies about King George being the anti-Christ that they used as a motivator to gin up support for the revolution.
The best history of this stuff I’ve read on this phenomena in the US is Charles Pierce’s Idiot America.
Groucho48
@Another Scott:
Capt. Nately : Don’t you have any principles?
Old man in whorehouse : Of course not!
Capt. Nately : No morality?
Old man in whorehouse : I’m a very moral man, and Italy is a very moral country. That’s why we will certainly come out on top again if we succeed in being defeated.
Capt. Nately : You talk like a madman.
Old man in whorehouse : But I live like a sane one. I was a fascist when Mussolini was on top. Now that he has been deposed, I am anti-fascist. When the Germans were here, I was fanatically pro-German. Now I’m fanatically pro-American. You’ll find no more loyal partisan in all of Italy than myself.
Capt. Nately : You’re a shameful opportunist! What you don’t understand is that it’s better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
Old man in whorehouse : You have it backwards. It’s better to live on your feet than to die on your knees. I know.
Capt. Nately : How do you know?
Old man in whorehouse : Because I am 107-years-old. How old are you?
Capt. Nately : I’ll be 20 in January.
Old man in whorehouse : If you live.
YY_Sima Qian
Thanks Adam! I was not expecting you to respond, given it was largely a dead thread when I posted. Really appreciate it!
If there really was intelligence assessment that posited worst case scenarios, then Biden really should not have been making categorical statements. That might be Joe being Joe, but his subordinates should have been much reserved in their statements. May be rebuilding the NSC process is still a work in progress?