Picking up a sandwich (with a mask on)
Customer to me: “Living in fear, huh?”
Me: “Yeah. I work with vulnerable, critically ill, immunocompromised children. So, yeah. I’m afraid of killing a child. Thank you”.
— Adam B. Hill, M.D. (@Adamhill1212) July 29, 2021
'The war has changed.' Internal CDC document urges new messaging & warns that delta infections likely more severe. The internal report shows the agency thinks it's struggling to communicate on vaccine efficacy amid increased breakthrough infections https://t.co/8VZOEKTQC5 pic.twitter.com/2oVk2yiRPt
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) July 30, 2021
The US reported +84,534 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 yesterday, the highest number since February 13, bringing the total close to 35.5 million. The 7-day moving average rose to 67,293 new cases per day. pic.twitter.com/cv6FKmm3ii
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) July 29, 2021
.@CDCgov #COVID19 cases are going up in over 90% of U.S. states & territories
The current 7-day average of daily new cases is 61,976. This is a 64.1% increase from previous week & 439.7% increase from the lowest average in June https://t.co/yXJ4XDL0Ll pic.twitter.com/nhJ8MqtGlh— Global Health Observ (@GlobalPHObserv) July 29, 2021
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Asian nations impose stricter COVID-19 restrictions due to Delta outbreaks https://t.co/kDEOuE3xBs pic.twitter.com/FQANP5Huya
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 30, 2021
New China virus outbreak worst after Wuhan, says state media https://t.co/oUCG86Ze1p
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) July 30, 2021
N.Korea's economy in crisis because of COVID-19, sanctions – South https://t.co/nQxUNF6xAf pic.twitter.com/tyRJiGVitT
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 30, 2021
India reported 44,230 new COVID-19 cases, the most in three weeks, the latest evidence of a worrying trend of rising cases that has forced one state to lock down amid fears of another wave of infections https://t.co/VTwBfYYjG2 pic.twitter.com/kZESCd6pbA
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 30, 2021
The #TokyoOlympics is running a village for athletes and coaches where more than 80% are vaccinated against COVID, testing is compulsory and movement is strictly curtailed. None of that is true for the Japanese capital that surrounds the Olympic ‘bubble’ https://t.co/uyPb64DmRQ pic.twitter.com/9fmm4RpJbq
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 30, 2021
BREAKING: Japan expands state of emergency to 4 more areas after record spikes in coronavirus cases amid Olympics. https://t.co/LabZqBqsZ5
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 30, 2021
Maps show the change in the number of new Covid-19 cases in the prefectures of Japan, host country of the #Olympics#AFPgraphics pic.twitter.com/LKuJsdV9YO
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) July 29, 2021
Philippines to place Manila area in lockdown to curb Delta variant https://t.co/GCf2dwY7K6 pic.twitter.com/Od4TIPWV5l
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 30, 2021
Thailand: Bangkok warehouse turned into 1,800-bed hospital as Covid crisis worsens https://t.co/Ft7zUcrsfr
— Crawford Kilian (@Crof) July 29, 2021
First batch of U.S. donated Pfizer vaccines arrives in Thailand https://t.co/Hr5psl6uJn pic.twitter.com/FUGNt3Nbee
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 30, 2021
As COVID-19 deaths rise in Myanmar, allegations are growing that the military government is using the coronavirus pandemic to consolidate power and crush opposition. The death rate in Myanmar is now the worst in Southeast Asia. https://t.co/5lAgxb2gbL
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 30, 2021
Many observers this is premature, but Israel *has* spare doses, and they don’t care what outsiders think…
Coronavirus: Israel to give third jab to people aged over 60 https://t.co/Yu0TEHyVnQ
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) July 29, 2021
Australia PM wants 80% of adults vaccinated before border opening https://t.co/THZbsxRcQx pic.twitter.com/VORVUGf1HA
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 30, 2021
Sydney reported a slight easing in locally acquired cases of COVID-19 amid a further tightening of restrictions in the worst-affected suburbs, with the military summoned to help enforce lockdown rules https://t.co/dWBYFccJdm by @renjujose pic.twitter.com/lf0itKerG3
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 30, 2021
Russia reported 799 coronavirus deaths Thursday, tying the national record of pandemic-related fatalities for the third time in less than a monthhttps://t.co/IRPWSpiIoL
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) July 29, 2021
Countries across the globe say they've been let down by broken promises and stalled deliveries of #Russia's Sputnik V #Covid19 vaccine:https://t.co/WG7yDE3u78
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) July 29, 2021
An aid group has set up a tent this summer in northeast Paris to provide COVID-19 vaccines to migrants, homeless people and others without access to state or private health insurance. https://t.co/Hw04OfNCSA
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) July 29, 2021
Portugal is beginning its journey to what the country’s prime minister calls “total freedom,” with the government deciding to start winding down COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. https://t.co/aTnDiViyXz
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) July 29, 2021
Brazilian health authorities started the mass immunization of Rio de Janeiro's Mare neighborhood. It's a novel bid to control COVID-19 in a poor community while studying vaccine effectiveness and the prevalence of worrisome variants. https://t.co/rOHb1UhSDN
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 29, 2021
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You buried the lede @statnews
"Against severe disease, which includes people with low blood oxygen levels or who are hospitalized, the overall efficacy of the vaccine was 97%”
This? is the most important part of the preprint imo. Efficacy against severe disease STILL excellent https://t.co/N8P5wT2sQf pic.twitter.com/IDK3kMCBwN
— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) July 29, 2021
There’s a lot of spitting happening at the #Tokyo2020 . About 30,000 people are spitting into tiny plastic vials every day in an extraordinary testing effort to curb the spread of COVID-19 infections. A look at apparatus behind the tests. https://t.co/QmAdk7j8yW
— AP Sports (@AP_Sports) July 30, 2021
Breakthrough cases: In rare cases, people experiencing Covid after being fully vaccinated may be at elevated risk for long Covid symptoms. That conclusion is from a small study of healthcare workers in Israel. Study is in the New England J of Medicine https://t.co/Q5tILfHUNT pic.twitter.com/IEiAA43pfu
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) July 29, 2021
Excellent, science-heavy thread:
"Please, please, please: stop obsessing over antibody titers. They are not enough to justify a booster."
Wanna know why? Read this primer. https://t.co/lWwd8iCSAn— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) July 29, 2021
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Florida and Texas now lead the nation with the highest percentage of new COVID cases, but Louisiana isn’t far behind due to an alarming spike among school-aged children. pic.twitter.com/6eiNHuEih9
— CBS Evening News (@CBSEveningNews) July 29, 2021
Dé·jà vu all over again: In Florida, long lines at drive-thru testing sites are back & a surge in #DeltaVirus infections has sent hospital admissions soaring. Local authorities are calling on the governor to declare an emergency https://t.co/pqAwaaaHOh pic.twitter.com/MPvtcBjDAE
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) July 29, 2021
At least someone is trying to deal with the DeSantis variant https://t.co/xoRxfmD65A
— Grudgie the Whale (@grudging1) July 29, 2021
The Texas power grid? https://t.co/kJjIQVYeX4
— Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) July 29, 2021
It's come to this:
“Please do not tie our hands behind our backs,” he said. “Please do not seek to take over pandemic emergency response from us.
“We are not the enemy.”https://t.co/ILiI0SqVVD and https://t.co/K3lrsi6Jva— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) July 29, 2021
seven out of 882, huh. https://t.co/STacGnbj2x
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) July 30, 2021
Mr. Megan McCain has THOUGHTS about the Biden adminstration’s anti-Covid measures:
Fox Guest Ben Domenech claims that Democrats are intentionally letting immigrants loose into communities to spread the Delta variant. pic.twitter.com/tVMJNO1h70
— PoliticusUSA (@politicususa) July 30, 2021
— David ?️? (@Swags_D17) July 29, 2021
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY stats from NYS Department of Health:
New COVID cases:
45 new cases yesterday. I guess it’s better than the hundreds a day we had back at the beginning of the year, but I’d hoped for better this long after the vaccinations started.
The CDC rates us as “Moderate” community transmission at this web site where you can look up states and counties:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view
Brachiator
A recent story from Deadline: ‘Los Angeles Covid Surge Being Driven By White, Affluent Neighborhoods”
NotMax
Couple of local stories, without further comment other than noting they each raise the blood pressure.
#1:
#2:
Meanwhile, planet is on a track to zoom past 200,000,000 cumulative reported cases by early next week.
Benno
The other shoe finally dropped in Pakistan. 4745 new cases yesterday. Sindh Province has shut down and positivity rate in Karachi is 23%. Chief minister declared all shops closed except pharmacies and export businesses until the 8th. All intercity travel banned. Anyone outdoors will have their vaccinations checked (uh-huh…). All teachers must be vaxxed by Sunday and proof of vaccination required to enter govt. buildings, schools, or health facilities. All unvaxxed govt. employees will stop drawing salary at the end of the month. Air travel banned for all without vaccine certificate from Sunday.
germy
@NeenerNeener:
My county in NY is rated as “Substantial”
Oh well.
Kay
@Benno:
I bet that’ll be effective.
Mary G
@NeenerNeener: That’s a good site, thanks. Orange County had 532 new cases today, but is rated moderate there. All the counties around us – LA, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino are rated high, so we’ll probably be headed that way too. Nobody is staying home except us immunocompromised folks, it seems. Traffic is at pre-pandemic levels as far as I can tell.
Vaccinations were down, which is disappointing. Hospitalizations up 20.5% in three days, but curve is nowhere near as steep as in January, and ICU patients are not going up much at all, so it seems that most cases are milder to date.
YY_Sima Qian
On 7/29 China reported 21 new domestic confirmed & 8 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Yunnan Province did not reported any new domestic positive cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 63 domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 community at Ruili remains at High Risk. 1 village at Ruili & 1 village at Longchuan County remain at Medium Risk.
Jiangsu Province
Anhui Province
Liaoning Province
Guangdong Province
Hunan Province
Sichuan Province
Beijing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (mild), the spouse of the domestic confirmed case reported on 7/28, & who had also traveled to Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province during 7/20 – 7/25. There currently are 2 domestic confirmed cases (both mild) in the city.
Imported Cases
On 7/29, China reported 43 new imported confirmed cases, 17 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:
Overall in China, 19 confirmed cases recovered, 15 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation & 2 were reclassified as confirmed cases, and 572 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 932 active confirmed cases in the country (660 imported), 25 in serious condition (17 imported), 419 asymptomatic cases (396 imported), 5 suspect cases (all imported). 16,569 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 7/29, 1,619.218M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 17.969M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 7/30, Hong Kong reported 2 new positive cases, imported (from Switzerland & the US).
satby
Médecins Sans Frontières is the “aid group” vaccinating homeless and migrants in Paris, as well as all over the third world. The next time the American Red Cross (a bloated, inefficient, wasteful organization) asks for donations send them to MSF, who will put them to good use.
Signed, a former long term ARC volunteer.
Soprano2
I heard an interview with a woman in NW Arkansas on NPR this morning. She thinks they’re lying about vaccinated people being able to get Covid “(Do they think we’re stupid?” she said), and thinks because people aren’t falling over dead on the sidewalks it’s not serious. All of the death happening in hospitals still isn’t real to a lot of people.
Percysowner
‘Worse than nothing’: Texas Gov. Abbott under fire after his baffling response to the state’s Covid surge
My sister in law married a guy from Texas. Whenever we got together and disagreed about anything, he would condescendingly say “Honey, you don’t understand, it’s Texas”. Apparently “It’s Texas” means electing a mass murderer.
Kay
My son and daughter in law live in Denmark and the vaccine distribution was a failure there – not sure what happened but the Danish vaccine program was agonizingly slow to ramp up- they couldn’t get one. They visited the US in May and both got the J and J in Chicago (easily, at a drug store) – we had to look for a one dose vaccine which we found in 5 minutes using a cell phone. My daughter in law is pregnant and Danish physicians are not recommending the vaccine for pregnant women but she relied on the US advice and got it anyway. She’s really glad she did with the varient spreading.
It just seems such a shame that the US got the vaccine access and distribution right and yet we still have all this death and disease, out of pure stubborness.
MJS
Employers are the only ones who are going to get us through this. Mandatory vaccinations (not “or routine testing”) to work in most places will put an end to (most of) this nonsense, but the FDA has to get on the stick and give final approval for the very clearly safe and effective vaccines now.
Baud
@MJS:
Agree.
JMG
I noticed in what is maybe a blip that after running at about 10K a day for a couple weeks, there were 20K vaccine doses administered in Mass. yesterday and a much larger percentage, but still not half, were first doses. Possible people are reacting to delta variant spread. Cases, hospitalizations still increasing though.
Kay
@Soprano2:
I hear that a lot. I don’t engage on it anymore. I listen if they bring it up but I’m done trying to sell vaccines to brittle, dug-in people who would rather stubbornly repeat the same nonsense than take in any new information. I sit there idly wondering how much this is going to cost Medicaid while they yammer on about how it’s “like the flu”. A lot, is the answer. 50% of the people in this county are on Medicaid.
debbie
@Soprano2:
I believe that report started out saying the state had just thrown out 80,000 doses after they had expired. ?
Low Key Swagger
I find it hard to refrain from a administering a right cross to the jaw of people who equate wearing a mask with “living in fear”. Wanna bet they own an arsenal of gunz?
HeartlandLiberal
The first tweet above by Adam B Hill was by guy at Riley Childrens Hospital, famous worldwide for care of children. It is affiliated with IU Health, associated with Indiana University. One of the gems we Hoosiers are very proud of.
Steeplejack
@NeenerNeener:
Thanks, interesting page.
Here in NoVA, my two surrounding counties (I’m on the line between them), Fairfax and Arlington, are both “moderate.” But my city, Falls Church, is “low.” Somewhat encouraging. But I’m still masking up when I go into commercial places.
Matt McIrvin
@Low Key Swagger: Nobody’s given me any shit about wearing a mask, but if they did, the response of the better angels of my nature would be something like “I’m vaccinated, I’m probably not going to get seriously ill–I’m doing this mostly to protect YOU.”
But it’s unlikely I’d get that out.
Cermet
That vaccination works and prevents any significant illness for essentially 97% of people still isn’t important to the Media; rather, breakthrough and antibody levels (falling) are their main topics to lead. Sick. Well, I’m masked at work now (certainly required now and good) but that so many aren’t while this rages like fires in California is ridiculous. Or is that a coffee house with the dog still drinking his coffee like a good thug obeying his betters like a slave.
Matt McIrvin
@JMG: New vaccinations are actually up in the disaster areas of Missouri and Arkansas. Of course, they’re playing a distant game of catch-up.
Matt McIrvin
@Cermet: Most of them, like us, are vaccinated, so breakthrough infections are what interest them personally. And it’s useful information, to us. But I hate the way it blunts the message that everyone needs to get vaccinated.
Skepticat
I’m rather irritated that the president is suggesting paying people $100 to get vaccinated. Why aren’t we fining them $1,000 if they don’t?
Steeplejack
@MJS:
I read somewhere—can’t find the link now, sorry—that there are certain statutory timeline requirements in the FDA approval process that cannot be waived or overriden, hence the “refusal” to “get on the stick” and just approve the vaccines now.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Director-General of Health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah reports 16,840 new Covid-19 cases today in his media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 1,095,486 cases. He also reports 134 new deaths today, for a cumulative total of 8,859 deaths — 0.81% of the cumulative reported total, 0.97% of resolved cases.
There are currently 183,806 active and contagious cases; 1,055 are in ICU, 532 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 12,179 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 902,921 patients recovered – 82.42% of the cumulative reported total.
47 new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 3,651 clusters. 1,092 clusters are currently active; 2,559 clusters are now inactive.
16.823 new cases today are local infections. Selangor reports 6,078 local cases: 368 in clusters, 3,251 close-contact screenings, and 2,459 other screenings. Kuala Lumpur reports 2,112 local cases: 260 in clusters, 1,021 close-contact screenings, and 831 other screenings.
Kedah reports 1,281 cases: 172 in clusters, 662 close-contact screenings, and 447 other screenings. Johor reports 1,103 local cases: 386 in clusters, 527 close-contact screenings, and 190 other screenings. Negeri Sembilan reports 1,079 cases: 181 in clusters, 610 close-contact screenings, and 288 other screenings. Sabah reports 1,066 cases: 157 in clusters, 640 close-contact screenings, and 269 other screenings.
Perak reports 810 cases: 330 in clusters, 316 close-contact screenings, and 164 other screenings.
Penang reports 689 cases: 115 in clusters, 264 close-contact screenings, and 310 other screenings. Kelantan reports 656 cases: 262 in clusters, 274 close-contact screenings, and 120 other screenings.
Melaka reports 581 cases: 130 in clusters, 288 close-contact screenings, and 163 other screenings. Pahang reports 540 cases: 91 in clusters, 247 close-contact screenings, and 202 other screenings.
Sarawak reports 450 cases: 67 in clusters, 297 close-contact screenings, and 86 other screenings.
Terengganu reports 258 cases: 25 in clusters, 119 close-contact screenings, and 114 other screenings.
Putrajaya reports 100 cases: six in clusters, 60 close-contact screenings, and 34 other screenings.
Perlis reports 13 cases: 12 close-contact screenings and one other screening. Labuan reports seven cases: two close-contact screenings and five other screenings.
17 new cases today are imported: 14 in Selangor, two in Kuala Lumpur, and one in Johor.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 556,404 doses of vaccine on 29th July: 343,530 first doses and 212,874 second doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 19,502,452 doses administered: 13,184,742 first doses and 6,317,710 second doses. 19.3% of the population are now fully vaccinated.
Kay
@Steeplejack:
I’m glad they can’t be waived or overidden. That seems like a general principal we should stick with. Let’s not lower any more standards, especially if we’re lowering them to accomodate people who are just insanely stubborn.
Baud
@Kay:
I agree. I don’t like our propensity of making up new rules on the fly. And rushing the process isn’t going to help persuade anyone.
Anne Laurie
Local news, Chs 4 / 5 / 7, are doing a lot of OMG the Delta will kill you reports. At least a couple of those spots (don’t judge, I’m an old, I like the evening ritual) have stressed that the *second* MNRa shot is much more protective, so it’s possible people who were waiting for a Round Tuit decided this was a sign.
Cermet
@Kay: But those standards were designed with the assumption that only a few tens of thousands people would – for ten months – be the only statistical data points available to decided whether to certify a new vaccine; they never envisioned that hundreds of millions for 3 to 6 months would be vaccinated with the new vaccine. That provides vastly more and orders of magnitude better safety data then any time in history. It is insane that they don’t accept this simple fact of statistics. This is ridiculous that they refuse to modify rules that only require they revise them via the same bureaucracy that created them.
And why? Because that will make a difference for many business, universities, and the military saving thousands of lives; that fucking matters.
Percysowner
@Skepticat: They are trying the carrot first. Considering we are getting accusations of perpetrating the Holocaust by even suggesting vaccine mandates, trying to bribe people is a good first step.
Frankly, I no longer care how we get people vaccinated. I just want them vaccinated. If it takes $100 I’m fine with it. Then we can move on to fines.
Barbara
@MJS: Does anyone not get how expensive “routine” testing is for an organization in money and complexity? My sister’s employer has fired people for failing to follow covid protocols after being forced to test their entire patient population when an unvaccinated worker showed up with covid symptoms.
lowtechcyclist
The whole ‘blame it on illegal immigrants’ bit is so ridiculous. There’s no way the number of undocumented persons in a state is anywhere near the number of unvaccinated citizens. It’s as dumb as the old notion that you could pick up venereal diseases from public toilet seats. (I’m dating myself with that one, I know.)
Barbara
@Percysowner: I think $100 is appropriate considering it often involves lost time at work and transportation, parking, etc. I’m not bothered by any of that.
MJS
@Kay: There doesn’t appear to be any required amount of time for final approval. What I found indicates it can take 6 months, but can be much quicker, and Fauci said he thought it would be much quicker. FDA says they are working “as fast as they can” to give final approval. So, again, get on the stick.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fda-working-quickly-review-full-approval-vaccines/story?id=79073622
Anne Laurie
The FDA, and the pharmacy companies, are both working as fast as they can. From all reports, the required testing is going at warp speed. The bottleneck (according to an article I read that didn’t make the nightly posting limit earlier this week) is the regulatory paperwork required to make sure the vaccines are kept at the required (extremely low) temperatures, and to iron out chain-of-control issues (making sure every dose is documented at every step from the Pfizer/Moderna production facility to the neighborhood drugstore).
We really can’t afford to dismiss either of those requirements as ‘mere paperwork’, because (a) we can’t risk people thinking they’re vaxxed when they’ve been given less-than-effective doses; and (b) we can’t give the anti-vaxx ghouls one more weapon to use in their campaign against the common good.
Suzanne
@Matt McIrvin: Say something like, “I’m doing this to protect kids. Why do you want to endanger kids?!”
MJS
@Barbara:
It’s incredibly expensive and disruptive. It would be much cheaper for an employer to have someone on site to administer the vaccine. “Vaccination card, please. Don’t have one? Step over to the person in the scrubs, or pick up your last paycheck.”
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: well into the fourth wave, Delta-driven, with 2696 new cases yesterday, down from this wave’s daily peak of 3593 but still a factor of ten over where things were a month ago. Deaths are far down (9 yesterday versus a daily peak of 134 in the third wave), probably due to the Delta variant mostly ripping through youngsters instead of the elderly.
Healthcare workers in Greece are going to get a stark choice between getting vaccinated, and suspension without pay. I suspect that may extend to other sectors of the economy as well.
Matt McIrvin
@MJS: Full approval, as we were saying earlier, is basically forever–it’s certifying not just that the vaccines are safe and effective, but that they will continue to be safe and effective into the indefinite future (no quality-control problems cropping up over the long term like we saw for the J&J plant in Maryland, or for the Russian Sputnik vaccine), and that they’re safe enough that it makes sense to use them even under non-pandemic conditions. This isn’t something that can be rushed.
The problem isn’t that the FDA won’t give full approval, it’s that vaccine mandates in a pandemic shouldn’t be conditional on full approval. Keeping them so is just caving to wingnut rhetoric about “experimental vaccines”.
Anne Laurie
See my last comment. Right now, anybody (12 or over) who wants the shot, can get the shot. If the bottleneck — as reported — is making sure the regulations are in place to ensure that every one of those shots is effective, I’d rather the kinks were ironed out before anyone gets sick or dies because their dose(s) got left on a loading dock overnight!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
It’s religious to the people not getting vaccinated at this point. Disease is the judgement of God in their minds and because Jesus loves them they won’t get sick, so they must be in the rest of us heathens faces so we know. The line the customer asked that doctor “Do you live in Fear”, the customer didn’t mean “Do you live in fear of Covid” he really meant “Do you live in fear of hell”. So when these Bible Botherors get ill, it’s because they were sinners so that’s why these public in the press repenting.
I suspect there is going to be a lot of dramatic social changes in that segment of society in the next decade once the pandemic. It’s been pointed out the Protestant Reformation followed the Black Death,
Jeffery
The podiatrist office called last night to tell me my fully vaccinated doctor has breakthrough covid in Philadelphia, PA. I rescheduled today’s appointment for next Friday. Hopefully he’ll be up to it. He shouldn’t push himself if he isn’t. I think he is in his late 30’s or early 40’s.
Matt McIrvin
@Jeffery: I think the official guideline is still that he needs to quarantine himself for a couple of weeks! I doubt that he’ll actually be infectious over all that time, but I’m surprised he’s seeing patients.
Laura Too
Hoo boy, my niece texted me last night from Key West. Covid is making the rounds of her work so her boss helpfully provided a link in their company newsletter. http://www.urgentcarefloridakeys.com/covid-19-ivermectin-prophylaxis.html she wanted to know if it was a good idea to do. WTAF??? I had to look it up, it is a “legitimate” “health” clinic???? I can’t find anything that says it is a spoof, maybe I’m not savvy enough? Of course I told her in no uncertain terms is she to go anywhere near Ivermectin. Thanks Anne Laurie, I don’t get here in time to comment much, but I hope you have even 1/2 an idea just how valuable these daily posts are. You have saved me so much time and frustration trying to find things on my own.
prostratedragon
Meanwhile I’m sure everything here in Chicago is going just swimmingly with the Lollapalooza festival downtown (expected attendance 100K). One is supposed to show a vax credential or test to get in. Surely that’s more than enough precaution!!
[Deep sigh]
YY_Sima Qian
The BBC article does an OK job to give a 16K ft. overview of the Delta Variant outbreak originating from Nanjing. The municipal health authorities had finally acknowledged on 7/28 that the outbreak is of the Delta variant, days after authorities in Anhui & Sichuan Provinces had announced that their cases related to outbreak at Nanjing are infected by the Delta Variant. Case summaries published by Nanjing’s heath authorities were also pretty rudimentary until a couple of days ago, without the detailed travel histories, clarification on how the cases were identified (through contact tracing, via mass screening or at fever clinics), or the status of the cases when they were identified (under lock down in residential compound, under home quarantine, under centralized quarantine, or had freedom of movement). This cause much irritation on Chinese social media, as people could not get a sense whether the authorities are getting a handle on the situation, and what is their personal risk level.
Nanjing authorities also announced that the breach is associated with an Air China flight from Russia that landed on 7/10. They did not explain how the source was determined, but presumably throughly phylogenetic analysis. The Nanjing Airport management company and the Nanjing municipal government have come under heavy criticism for basic errors in pandemic prevention and response. The fact that the same cleaning crews were servicing both international & domestic flights was mind boggling. Operations at the airport was not halted until 2 days after the initial group of positive results, & Nanjing did not warn other cities which flights had been serviced by infected cleaning staff. It is still not clear how so many members of the cleaning staff, in particular, have been infected, & whether the transmission occurred in the airport’s environs, their dormitories, or their residential communities. It is fortunate that the personnel at the airport who have much greater contact w/ passengers, such as security & service staff, have not tested positive so far. Nonetheless, all 10+K employees at the airport & their immediate family members have been sent to centralized quarantine today.
There is a virtual cordon sanitaire around the city, as anyone who needs to leave needs a negative RT-PCR report within 48 hours of travel, & will almost certain be sent to 14 days of centralized quarantine at the destination, probably w/ another 7 – 14 days of home quarantine after that.
The secondary outbreak emanating from Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province is still developing, but the same kind of virtual cordon sanitaire has been setup for the city. So far, almost all of the cases outside of Nanjing and Zhangjiajie can be traced to the outbreaks there. Many jurisdictions are kicking off mass screenings at the district or municipal level w/ the emergence of the 1st positive case, which have not yet uncovered significant cryptic community transmission. However, the identified positive case have significant travel histories outside of Zhangjiajie, we have to see if clusters have been seeded at those places. Changde in Hunan Province is an example, of what could be a tertiary outbreak.
As the case information illustrates, during the height of summer travel season there are people from all over the country congregating at tourist sites, who then move on to other sites, before heading home. They also show (again) that relatively casual contact can result in transmission of Delta Variant, & that definition of “closet contact” need to be significantly broadened. It is also striking how few asymptomatic cases there are with the Delta Variant outbreaks in Guangzhou, Ruili & Nanjing, though bear in mind that China’s definition of “asymptomatic” is probably much narrower than that elsewhere.
This is indeed the most challenging outbreak China has faced since the 1st wave in Winter/Spring ‘20. While past outbreaks at Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province & Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region will likely remain larger in case count (each well over 1K cases), the rapid geographical dispersion hasn’t been seen since the 1st wave. The Delta Variant outbreaks at Guangzhou in Guangdong Province & Ruili in Yunnan Province were contained reasonably quickly, then eventually eliminated. However, those outbreaks started in the community, rather at a transportation hub itself. I think China stands a good chance of containing and eliminating this new outbreak, though I am sure the authorities are hoping to do so without resorting to widespread movement restrictions like during the 1st wave, which were economically & socially damaging.
We had a company outing planned in mid-Aug. to one of the major tourist sites in Guizhou Province. That is now postponed. All of my business travel plans have been cancelled for the next 2 weeks. My personal vacation planned for late Aug. in Guizhou is also cancelled. One of our colleagues in Beijing is under 2 week home quarantine w/ his family, due to his recent vacation to Zhangjiajie.
I am currently on vacation w/ my family at the mountainous Enshi Prefecture in western Hubei Province, to escape from the oppressive summer heat in Wuhan. The prefecture borders Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province, though both jurisdictions are large, mountainous, & relatively sparsely populated. We are staying in the countryside, an hour drive from the nearest low tier city. We are probably safer here than in Wuhan (as far as risk of being caught up in lock down or quarantine). On the other hand, we had to take our daughter to a hospital in the nearest low tier city today for a consultation. Because we came from outside of Enshi Prefecture, we had to register our information at the hospital entrance. The person in front of us has permanent address in Zhangjiajie…
New Deal democrat
A few comments:
1. Delta seems to be much more transmissible with outdoor contact. The Provincetown MA outbreak among vaccinated people appears to have largely transmitted from an outdoor beach party, and is apparently one of the driving forces behind the CDC’s renewed masking advice.
2. I suspect that there are many more x the number of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases from Delta. I base this on the seroprevalence study from India, showing that it increased from 14% to 78% of the sampled population after Delta passed through. But India only reported that 2% of its population was infected during that time.
I wonder if a similar study in the UK would find a similar result. The UK has only shown about 2% of its population infected during the Delta outbreak – and yet the outbreak has clearly burned through the dry timber, and is already declining sharply there.
3. Deaths continue to follow cases with about a 4 week lag. Deaths in the UK have increased 11-fold since their bottom about 8 weeks ago (note: there was a data dump in the UK 9 days ago that has now resolved itself. I am not counting that data, which was even higher).. 28 days ago cases in the UK had increased about 9-fold. If this holds true for the US, we should expect daily deaths to start rising sharply pretty much starting now.
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: Yep, they’re up here.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: One difficulty projecting deaths from cases is that when both curves are rising exponentially, you can’t tell the difference between a change in the relative scale, and a change in the relative time lag. For exponential functions they are mathematically identical.
What it takes to tell the difference is to wait until the curves deviate from exponential and turn over. Right now, in the UK, cases are past peak but deaths are still rising. It’ll be interesting to see how it all shakes out once deaths are past peak. Clearly this wave is much less lethal because of mass vaccination of old people–to some extent that’s true even in the US, but it’s not as true as in the UK. Massachusetts is a lot more like the UK.
dmsilev
@Barbara: The surveillance testing program we had at work ran roughly a few tens of dollars per test, so maybe $50-60 in testing expenses per person per week (twice a week testing). That cost doesn’t include the infrastructure (we rented a big party tent for many months so as to do the testing in a quasi-outdoor setting), a bunch of full-time staff to run the operation, time out from everybody else’s day to do the test (test itself was only a few minutes, but at peak times you might have to wait in line a while), etc. It added up fast.
A couple of months ago, fully-vaccinated people were removed from the surveillance pool, so the scale of the operation dropped substantially. The tent is gone, the test kits are now handed out for the few remaining people to test themselves at home and send in the samples (so basically no staff needed), etc.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Laura Too: Here is the NIH on this stuff
https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/overview/prevention-of-sars-cov-2/
Sloane Ranger
No update yesterday due to museum volunteering duties but suffice to say that on Wednesday, we saw an increase in new case numbers for the first time in almost a week. This continued yesterday, when we had 31,117 new cases (up from 27,734 on Wednesday). Due to the recent fall, the 7-day moving average for new cases is still showing a decrease of 37.1%. New cases by nation,
England – 27,524 (up 3157)
Northern Ireland – 1471 (down 129)
Scotland – 1398 (up 219)
Wales – 724 (up 136).
Deaths – There were 85 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase in the rolling 7-day average of 28.9%. 67 deaths were in England, 2 in Northern Ireland, 13 in Scotland and 3 in Wales.
Testing – 911,012 tests were conducted on Wednesday, 28 July. This is a decrease in the rolling 7-day average of 14.1%. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs was 694,885.
Hospitalisations – On Wednesday, 28 July there were 6034 people in hospital and 853 people on ventilators. As of 25 July, the rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was up by 21.1%.
Vaccinations – As of 28 July, 46,733,115 people had received 1 shot of a vaccine and 37,782,252 had received both. This means that 88.4% of all adults in the UK have had 1 shot of a vaccine and 71.4% were fully vaccinated.
Matt McIrvin
I’ve been seeing an increasing sentiment on the left of “throw away the masks, let it rip and kill the MAGAt unvaccinated, I’ve got mine Jack”. Mostly from people under 65 without children, who scoff at parents by citing low death rates.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — 1,456 new cases of COVID-19 reported, 6 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive. Test positivity is 6.2%. ICU bed occupancy and hospitalisation numbers are remaining steady.
Just under 20,000 vaccinations were carried out in Scotland yesterday, about 12% or so first-dose. This brings the fully-vaccinated number up to 71% of the 18+ population with another 19.7% having received a first dose. Most of those not vaccinated or only one-dose are younger people but they have had less time to get a vaccine since the early priority was to vaccinate older people. Even so over 71% of the 18-29-year old population have received a first dose of vaccine which hopefully indicates a lot of them will get a second dose when the eight-week waiting time between doses has passed.
FYI Scotland’s population is about 5.6 million people. To compare with the US nationally you should multiply these case numbers and vaccination rates by 60.
Public Health England has released information about hospitalisations and testing indicating that perhaps a quarter of people in hospital reported as being confirmed cases of COVID-19 were not admitted because of COVID-19 symptoms, although the report warns that infection with COVID-19 could have been contributory to their diagnosed illness and subsequent admittance to hospital. This reporting situation is likely to be the same in Scotland.
Downpuppy
Because “As of Thursday, 882 people were tied to the Provincetown outbreak. Among those living in Massachusetts, 74% of them were fully immunized, yet officials said the vast majority were also reporting symptoms. Seven people were reported hospitalized.” makes absolutely no sense, I read the entire ABC article. It still makes no sense. How does the overall % of Mass. residents vaccinated relate to the “Vast majority” (Of the 882? Maybe) and the 7 hospitalized?
Reporters who can’t understand basic statistics are a menace.
Bluegirlfromwyo
@Matt McIrvin: I’ve been tempted by it. I’ll wear my mask for young kids and others who can’t get a vaccine yet. For the MAGAT vaccine choice crowd, I need to borrow Melania’s jacket.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: There will be changes, but nothing that drastic. The Black Death killed nearly half of Europe. This disease kills about 1%. That is still an awful lot of people. But to give an example, I know a lot of people who have gotten COVID. Some had very mild or asymptomatic. Some got very sick, including hospitalization. I know at least 3 people still suffering with long COVID. I don’t know a single person who died. There are still plenty of people walking around who don’t even know one person who was hospitalized. That is part of why they are stupidly not taking it seriously. This is a terrible disease. It has killed and injured a lot of people, but nothing compares to the Black Death.
Matt McIrvin
@Bluegirlfromwyo: One thing I ask myself is, do I want to go out of my way to get a disease that, even with my shots, stands a good chance of being something like the worst flu I’ve ever had and ruining my whole week? I do not. Maybe some people think that’s no big deal.
I saw a chart in some British paper that put it interestingly: getting vaccinated reduces your risk of death about as much as knocking ~20 years off your age. (Which is substantial.) At 53, I’m now at about as much risk as an unvaccinated person in their 30s. Would I feel safe as an unvaccinated person in my 30s? Many obviously do, but me, not really.
CaseyL
Does Delta have the same latency period as Alpha? I ask because, if not, the Delta Wave might exhaust itself in a couple of months.
Which would maybe be good news… I’m keeping an eye out for more information on Theta and Lamba, but so far haven’t heard much about those variants.
Matt McIrvin
@CaseyL: No, it’s like half as long. Delta burns through the population fast.
CaseyL
@Matt McIrvin: That’s sort-of good news. Delta should (fingers crossed) be done with us in a couple of months, then.
Bluegirlfromwyo
@Matt McIrvin: I get all of that, and support it 100 percent. But it really is tempting to be able to say fuck off and die literally to these people after what they’re putting this country through. I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of lefties are acting on that temptation.
Matt McIrvin
@CaseyL: The UK wave already seems to have peaked, though some seem to think there could be a second bounce.
Caphilldcne
Thanks so much to Anne Laurie for putting these together and for all the commenters. I’m really grateful having a regular source of curated information like this. Truly a public service!
Matt McIrvin
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
And a lot of that is age, which segregates social networks. When people say “we all got it here, it’s just a cold”, I assume that person is under 40 and most of the people they know are also under 40. (Or they’re just lying.) One of the biggest barriers to vaccination is that the least-vaccinated groups now are young and it’s actually not as urgent for them–we’re trying to get them vaccinated to reduce risk for older people.
CaseyL
In case anyone else was wondering about Theta and Lambda variants: WHO no longer considers Theta a “variant of interest,” meaning they’ve decided it’s not terribly dangerous.
Lambda, OTOH, might be a bastard. It originated in South America, and has already been seen in Florida and Texas. It’s said to be more contagious than Alpha (no comparison to Delta is given). It appears to be able to evade vaccination immunity. No word on its lethality.
sab
@CaseyL: A couple of months is how long it takes to be vaccinated, from first shot to second shot to full protection
ETA As I am sure you inow already.
Robert Sneddon
@CaseyL: The boffins have two categories — “Variants Of Interest” (VOI) and “Variants Of Concern” (VOC). The Interest variants of COVID-19 spread between human beings by replication and infection just like the Concern variants but they may not be as virulent or may not make people sick as much or cause longer-term problems for survivors. The Concern variants include Delta because it is very virulent i.e. spreads widely and easily and it provably makes people sick.
If a newly identified variant is moved from the Interest category to the Concern category that’s the time for the layman to sit up and take notice.
CaseyL
@sab: I’m thinking in terms of how fast Delta makes people sick – which is “very fast” – to determine how quickly it burns through the population.
Patricia Kayden
Xavier
Customer to me: “Living in fear, huh?”
Me: “My grandpa lived to be 101.”
Customer” “What, wearing a mask?”
Me: “No, minding his own business.”
mrmoshpotato
This is not a race you want to “win.”
RaflW
A big Florida hospital chain is postponing all elective surgeries. Great job, Ron DeSantis.
In better news, this
mrmoshpotato
@Percysowner:
“Honey, you don’t understand. We’re stupid, asshole children in adult bodies.”
RaflW
@CaseyL: I saw some very preliminary data out of the UK that might, maybe suggest this surge and burn out thing.
Not my area of knowledge, so shaker of salt and all that.
Chris Johnson
I honestly don’t think we get to choose at this stage. I’ll continue to be masking up (and I am in Vermont!) in public places or any private gathering where anybody else is wearing a mask for any reason: I will join ’em, solidarity.
I don’t believe my choices have any bearing on those who are destroying themselves by statistics, so I am just using them as a way to maintain readiness (I am fucking not losing this one: the OTHER side can die) and as a thrown gauntlet. I want to offend those who are offended by this behavior. They deserve to be as offended as possible, and/or death. What I do will not affect that nor would me going maskless make them any more likely to kick it.
mrmoshpotato
@prostratedragon:
Surely it will be!
Start the two week timer.
Robert Sneddon
@RaflW: The UK has a significantly higher vaccination rate than the US. Caveat — only people aged 18 and over are being routinely vaccinated in the UK whereas in the US the lower age limit for vaccinations is currently 12 AIUI.
What seems to have driven the ‘third wave’ this summer in the UK is the Delta variant which reached 99% of new cases in the UK a couple of weeks back. The mathematical modellers had predicted this wave would occur back in May which was quite an achievement since back then it looked like we had seen the last of this disease as case numbers fell. The same modellers are now predicting another surge (perhaps not a wave) beginning in the early winter period.
Major Major Major Major
@RaflW: The UK infection curve shows a remarkable buttonhook shape, which many people I’ve seen are interpreting as meaning that they were a lot further into the delta wave than they thought, as well as the higher R value. Hopefully the same will be true for us.
Brantl
Yes, we do think your stupid; and lots of people currently have a lot of trouble believing a lot of real things, it’s called gullibility. And it’s another pandemic, in its own right.
Geoduck
@Skepticat: Whose job will it be to collect that $1000 from the refuseniks?
JustRuss
@New Deal democrat:
Yeah. Outdoors was “safe” before because you needed a fairly large hit of the virus to get infected, and it disperses so quickly outdoors that’s not likely. Delta is so virulent you can catch it from a much smaller dose, so being outside offers less protection.
LongHairedWeirdo
Worst part is, it actually makes sense to say something like that, when all you should need to say is “dude, epidemic!” The danger of an epidemic is, EVERYONE is at risk of being exposed, because you CAN’T SEE diseases spread. I mean, if you were a total ____ing moron, you might say, “duh, why don’t we just protect the elderly and the sick?” but in a sane world, people would say “you total ____ing moron, that’s what makes it an epidemic! We can’t isolate it and prevent its spread to ANYONE. If we could, we wouldn’t call it a ____ing epidemic!”
Now, some of you might say “but ‘weirdo, the GOP is actually saying much, much stupider stuff than ‘protect the sick and elderly’.” And you’re right. ___ing morons around the world enjoy having someone to laugh at, saying “even *I* know better than that!” And yet, Republicans keep finding new depths of evil stupidity. I swear, the Republican Party makes as much sense as insanity squared, divided by three, times pie.
No, not the math constant pi, the ratio of the circumference to the diameter, the concept of pie, food served with a crust, be it as a foundation, or encasing. And if you say “multiplying by pie doesn’t make any sense!” you might have missed the point of insanity squared, divided by three.
(I decided “insanity squared divided by three” described a particularly nasty, weird problem. My life is, uh, interesting, and people who know me tend to get a bit infected, to the point that a relatively new friend might finally ask the most horrible of self-answering questions. “So, ‘weirdo. I guess I get insanity squared – like, even insane folks would say ‘don’t look at me, friend, this is totally nucking futz.’ But why divided by three? Because….” And then the realization would dawn, and we’d probably finish together. “…Because that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.” )
dc
@New Deal democrat: Even at outdoor events, people end up going inside somewhere, for example, to go to the bathroom. Did they put on their high filter mask before entering? Were the bathrooms well ventilated? Did people decide to stop off at restaurants or bars on the way home?
Audrey
I’m not sure if I missed further news of this, but did WaterGirl end up deciding to get a Coivd test?