I’m trying to do a somewhat rational risk assessment of the Delta variant as someone living in an area where 80+% of the eligible population in my zip code have been fully vaccinated, 65% in my county have had a first dose, and 55% are fully vaccinated.
Apparently, around 10% of the US infections are Delta, while the UK finds that 90% of their cases are Delta. The UK’s full vaccination rate, on the whole, is approximately the same as the US (44%), and they are not going to leave lockdown on June 21 due to the spread of the Delta variant.
Dr. Fauci believes that the mRNA vaccines are about 88% effective against Delta if you’ve taken both doses, but only 33% after one dose. No study has been done on the J&J vaccines, though only a small percentage of those vaccinated in my area have gotten J&J.
We’ve basically ended precautions here, except for medical facilities. Mask wearing has gone from almost universal a month ago, to maybe 25% in stores today. Restaurant staff and patrons also are unmasked for the most part. Who knows if any of the unvaccinated are unmasked, but presumably most of them are.
I ate indoors yesterday and felt pretty comfortable being there with my wife, since both of us have been vaccinated with mRNA vaccines. But I’m going to re-evaluate that as Delta grows in our area. I expect that Delta will surge through states with lower vaccination rates, and their hospitals will start to fill up again. I just don’t know if New York, which has 60% of the 18+ population vaccinated, and 49% of the total population, will be able to fight off Delta, since our vaccination rates are currently piddling away.
The other complication is that the real defense against COVID is everyone wearing a mask. If I think Delta is an issue, I’ll probably go back to using a N-95 mask, which will be a depressing step backwards.
Here’s a thread to discuss your current view of the situation.