Why Democrats may defy history and win the 2022 midterms https://t.co/MyF1f9tVwO
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 6, 2021
… This week’s special election in New Mexico’s 1st congressional district is part of a larger trend that shows us that if President Joe Biden remains as popular as he is now, Democrats have a fighting chance to maintain House control…
Democrats seem to be doing 2 points to 5 points better than you’d expect in a neutral political environment, depending on whether you look at all special elections involving at least one Democrat and Republican or those taking place with only one Democrat and one Republican.
This 2 to 5 point Democratic advantage matches pretty much what we saw in the national congressional generic ballot. It is also pretty much identical to the results we witnessed in last year’s election. Biden won by 4.5 points nationally, and Democrats were victorious in the national House vote by about 3 points.
The common thread through these special elections is that Biden is popular. His approval rating has been north of 50% throughout his entire presidency. When we limit ourselves to only polling that asked voters (i.e. not all adults), Biden’s approval rating is still above 50%.
Presidential approval ratings aren’t all that matter during midterm elections — but they do matter…
So, of course, our ‘progressive’ social-media betters decide this is the time to start wailing that the smudge on the horizon is absolutely an iceberg, and all we can do is give up and resign ourselves to electoral death. Gosh, is it silly season already?
Now is not the time to give up on democracy. We will fight and we will win.
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) June 7, 2021
He can’t win an election with only his supporters, he needs millions upon millions of normal people. https://t.co/lBSafVUa40
— Reinstated Doorknob Licker (@agraybee) June 7, 2021
trying to think of a single international example of a party out of power successfully rigging elections
— pear mesa credit union devops (@Theophite) June 7, 2021
I fear the US is at the point of democratic decline where only something like a Chile-style millions-of-people-in-the-streets movement could really stop it. Do you see anything like that in the offing? Most Americans are still in the "goshdarn all that partisan squabbling" stage.
— David Roberts (@drvolts) June 6, 2021
Millions of people actually did take to the streets in 2017, but they wore cringey hats so that didn't count.
— Reinstated Doorknob Licker (@agraybee) June 6, 2021
god damn, we made it through 4 years of trump and now an op ed has you throwing in the towel? grow a spine
— mike "summer of '21" m ?? (@mmcgrath42) June 7, 2021
No we’re not. This was insane in 2017, in 2018, in 2020 and it’s insane now. https://t.co/jDTvia75C9
— Reinstated Doorknob Licker (@agraybee) June 7, 2021
Good lord you have 54K followers. Be more responsible.
— Jean-Michel Connard (@torriangray) June 7, 2021
I don’t remember the context of this but I stand by it now more than ever. https://t.co/fSC3E6hvbQ
— Reinstated Doorknob Licker (@agraybee) June 7, 2021
natem
I’m convinced half these supposed chicken little “liberals” on Twitter are GRU ops. A good portion of the other half are just people addicted to doom. November 8, 2016 broke a lot of people’s brains.
Baud
@natem:
A lot of what these people are upset about is that they are forced to support the Democratic Party rather than play the role of the savvy contrarian, which is their true calling.
caphilldcne
Thanks for this. I’ve been trying to enjoy Biden’s little victories in hopes of more and the doom and gloom is definitely disempowering!
Baud
JMG
@natem: No, I’m old enough to know that left fretting and doomsaying is older than I am. Social media just brings it to more people’s attention.
Spanky
@natem: “Useful idiots” come in a variety of flavors.
OTOH,
Bear in mind that the GQP is in power in a number of states, and are making no secret of their plans to remake their state laws.
That’s where we need to keep the eye on the ball. None of those laws will withstand an overwhelming vote against them.
schrodingers_cat
Boss cat is struggling to walk and won’t eat at all. I have been force feeding him chicken broth. I am distraught.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m sorry. I remember those days with my old babies.
Soprano2
@schrodingers_cat: I’m so sorry, I saw you said he was sick. My vet had me try meat baby food when my cat was sick, but you probably already know that. I hope he gets feeling better.
zhena gogolia
@natem:
I’m seeing a lot of Gru-ish people attacking Merrick Garland these days on twitter.
Spanky
@schrodingers_cat: I am sorry for the hard choice ahead of you.
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat:
Have you talked to the vet about what’s best right now?
It’s agonizing, I know.
schrodingers_cat
@zhena gogolia: Yes, the vet advised euthanasia yesterday afternoon. A second vet is coming home this afternoon.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Makes sense. A lot of what they do is scan the headlines and then promote any action that can create a wedge.
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat:
I probably wouldn’t try to force feed him. That just causes more anguish.
Cheryl Rofer
@Baud:
The savvy contrarian pose is a big part of the noise around the alleged lab leak as well.
Lacuna Synecdoche
pear mesa credit union devops via Anne Laurie @ Top:
The problem is that Republicans are in power in 30 states.
I mean, I agree completely with Enten’s thesis, i.e. that we can maintain control of the House and maybe win back the Senate in 2022.
But our primary obstacle isn’t the history of the President’s party losing seats in his first mid-term. It’s the 30 states that’ll be heavily gerrymandered in 2022, and the voter suppression bills that are making their way through so many red state legislatures.
schrodingers_cat
@zhena gogolia: My husband is of the same opinion. Yesterday’s serving broth caused him to rally and walk around a bit
kindness
I think the MSM sliding along on it’s lazy ass take that the party in power always loses seats in the midterms is lazy ass reporting. Sure, it is commonly the case, but is it always the case? I don’t think so. I think Democrats & common folk are engaged and do see what Republicans are trying to do. So long as the people can actually vote (Republican efforts to the contrary), I think they will, especially at this moment in time. See New Mexico’s recent House election as an example.
Matt McIrvin
@Cheryl Rofer: They tend to be centrist savvy contrarians rather than super-progressive savvy contrarians, but at some point the categories blur together.
OzarkHillbilly
They do in Misery.
Kathleen
@schrodingers_cat: Sending you hugs[[[]]]]
Baud
@kindness:
It’s like they say in the stock market, past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
I would love to see an overwhelming vote against Republicans in Misery.
Kathleen
@kindness: Lazy and toxic.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
@zhena gogolia:
Well, I personally found this disturbing:
DOJ argues it should substitute for Trump as defendant in E. Jean Carroll lawsuit
Am I missing something?
schrodingers_cat
@Kathleen: Thanks Kathleen.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Yes the writing is on the wall. Just last week he was catting around in my neighbor’s yard. Its so hard to see him like this.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I don’t like it either. But it’s up to the court to decide.
Cameron
Given Biden’s popularity and the popularity of what he’s gotten done so far (pandemic response, economic stimulus), Democrats as of right now have an excellent chance of winning a majority of votes in 2022. What those votes translate into in terms of winning elections – I don’t know. Fighting all the election-rigging done by Republican state legislatures is going to be a hard slog, and Sinemanchin is no help. I’m sure it’s possible, but I don’t know enough to see how. Gotta keep the faith!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m so sorry SC about Boss cat
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: That will never happen. No matter how many times we vote for stuff we want by 60+% that the state GOP in Jeff City ignores or overturns in session, we will send them back anyway. Because nothing says “respect the voters’ will” like spitting on them.
narya
@schrodingers_cat: Sending you love and kindness. It’s so hard.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
But why did the DOJ have to take this action? Why couldn’t they have just let this drop?
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
You can either fight for your privilege, or you can fight for the other things in life. The voters of MO have chosen.
Cameron
@OzarkHillbilly: Sounds an awful lot like Florida.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I don’t think they can let this drop. Once it’s in the court, I think only the court can dismiss it. So DOJ was going to have to take a position.
satby
@schrodingers_cat: You are prolonging his suffering if you are force feeding him. Time to let him go.I’m sorry.
JPL
@schrodingers_cat: I am so sorry.
mali muso
Checking in from Virginia where we have off-season state elections and the Democratic primary is today! I voted for Jennifer Carrol Foy for Governor, Sam Rasoul for Lt. Gov and Mark Herring for AG. I’m pretty sure Terry Mac is going to be the Dem candidate for Gov, and I have no problem donating, volunteering and voting enthusiastically for him in the fall, but you’re supposed to vote your heart in the primaries, right?
JMG
You know, it’s perfectly OK to criticize Biden administration actions or inactions while still remaining a strong supporter of said administration. Same for Democratic leadership in Congress. That’s called having an adult attitude about politics. I don’t expect any elected Democrat to agree with or act on all my political ideas. No such person could ever get elected. In five months, Biden has done a great deal of good. So I’m reasonably happy even if I’m pretty sure that more good will be much harder to accomplish because frankly, more Democratic Senators than Manchin think enough good has been done and please don’t interrupt our fundraising by making us take actual votes and be accountable.
SiubhanDuinne
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m so terribly sorry. I know how you love him. But it sounds as though he is in distress, and I know you don’t want to prolong that for a minute longer than necessary. Thinking of you. It’s so hard.
Joe Falco
Anyone is allowed to have moments of sadness, anger, annoyance, etc. with our political system, politicians, laws and so on without making it into crippling self-defeatism. Like one of the tweets pointed out, if you’re really depressed about it or anything, please seek professional help about treatment for depression if you can because we deserve to live our best life and sometimes we need help to do that.
mali muso
@schrodingers_cat: Sending you support. It’s so hard. :(
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Well then surely the DOJ could have taken a different position, correct?
WereBear
@schrodingers_cat: Do you know what is wrong? If he can be treated, there’s reason to hang in there, but if it’s not… he might be signalling you.
WereBear
@schrodingers_cat: Aww, crap. Don’t distress him or you further might be the best thing, then.
schrodingers_cat
@satby:Thanks for your concern.
Lapassionara
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The DOJ has to look at the big picture, meaning getting a ruling that can apply to any president going forward. It makes sense that a president would be in general immune from defamation law suits. If not, the president would have a difficult time criticizing anyone. What the DOJ needs to do is get a rule that carves out an exception that only applies to Trump in this situation, i.e., a president who knowingly lies about a matter in which he was personally involved before becoming president.
schrodingers_cat
@WereBear: I tried what I could yesterday. Gave it a whole night it was a gamble of course. I am going to do what is the best for him. We have called a home vet. If she says what I think she is going to say, I will take him to the yard that he loves and say our final goodbye.
OzarkHillbilly
Time and again.
@Cameron: Don’t it tho?
OzarkHillbilly
Yes, you will. Sorry it falls to you.
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m sorry. It’s always hard, on both of you.
daveNYC
Yeah, this is ignoring the fact that while the Democrats are nominally in control of the federal government, it’s the individual states that actually run the elections. Not to mention that as far as election reform goes, I wouldn’t exactly say that the Democrats are in power. Not if Manchin continues to refuse to budge on the subject.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat: Kitteh will tell you, as will the second vet. It is sometimes a mercy to let them go out with some of their strength and style remaining.
Benw
@schrodingers_cat: oof sorry sorry sorry
Betty Cracker
@schrodingers_cat: Wishing you strength and courage for the time ahead. It’s a very difficult thing, and lots of us have been there and are rooting for you and your dear kitty.
sanjeevs
https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-probe-faults-intelligence-security-failures-over-jan-6-capitol-breach-11623142801?mod=hp_lead_pos3
It’s like Barr never left at the DoJ
Josie
@schrodingers_cat:
So sorry. I’ll be thinking of you and Boss cat today.
Hoodie
@Baud: It’s also a case of refighting the last war. It’s not irrational to look at past history as a guide, but it’s more of a starting point than a destination, and there are a lot of reasons that 2022 may not go the way of past off year elections.
I’m wondering about the effect of not having Trump on the ballot, since he wasn’t on the ballot in 2018 and Dems cleaned up. It looks like the GOP is trying to cobble together “Trumpism” as an ideological stance to support the party, but there really isn’t much of an ideological structure there outside of Trump’s personality. His campaigning for GOP candidates in 2018 was probably a net negative for them. What are they going to do if he’s still around and not that popular? He’s not some blank slate they can paint to their desires (like they’ve done with Reagan) as long as he’s actively flinging shit. His true believer morons are taking over state party delegations and, god knows, that could result in some real loser candidates being fielded.
This new wave of voter restrictions could also be an indication that the GOP is actually worried about 2022. It may represent a bit of gamesmanship, trying to discourage Dems by creating an illusion that the GOP is so powerful, it can cheat enough to overcome any electoral obstacle. But will a state legislature really have the balls to overturn a non-close election?
Josie
@sanjeevs:
I would imagine there is a lot of dead wood burrowed in at DOJ (and other departments). It will take time to clean it out and turn things in a new direction. We can’t expect an instant turning of such a large ship.
sanjeevs
@Josie: I’m sure there is. But there’s really no excuse for this. A refusal to answer to a Senate Committee on a hugely important investigation can’t have bypassed the Department head.
Nicole
@schrodingers_cat: I’m sorry. It’s the great tragedy for humans that our lives are so much longer than our pets’, but I guess it’s a great blessing for our pets; that they never have to know a single moment without you.
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone ???
yellowdog
@Spanky: Why do you say that? States are passing laws that effectively say that the legislature can determine who won an election. Do you think they are passing these laws for shits and giggles? If they can steal an election, they will.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@rikyrah:
Good morning : )
WereBear
@schrodingers_cat: I have no doubt of that. My condolences at this very tough time.
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
@natem: how soon til we find out both the federalist & the jacobin have the same funding source?
OzarkHillbilly
Woman opens fire on family of 6 heading to vacation in road-rage attack, MO cops say
Jefferson County because, of course it is.
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
@caphilldcne: i also miss the simpler times when being an adbusters devotee only meant bush winning a squeaker over gore (thru no fault of ralph “no difference between democrats & republicans” nader).
Soprano2
I would love to see that too, but it’s not going to happen. This state has become more conservative and rural since 2008, when Obama almost won it. I’m going to be interested to see what the 2020 census says about the populations of St. Louis, KC and Springfield.
Nicole
While I’m not feeling too glum about 2022 (it’s over a year away), the NYC primary has me anxious. It’s the first go with ranked choice voting and because of a bunch of Democratic candidates with more ego than sense who won’t exit the race even though they have no shot, I’m really worried we’re going to end up with Andrew oNe thOUsaND dOllaRs Yang.
OzarkHillbilly
@Soprano2: Have you seen that Nicole Galloway isn’t running for reelection?
The Moar You Know
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yes. Justice wants a ruling from the courts that some actions the president takes are not and cannot be part of their “official job duties”. Like sexual assault. Because right now that’s not how the law works. If this went to trial today, Trump’s attorneys just say “it was in the course of doing my job, the government is responsible”, the judge agrees because they’ve got no choice, that’s what the law says, and Trump walks scot-free.
Soprano2
And then when we voted to fix what causes this, Republicans managed to get the voters to undo it by telling people in the rural areas over and over that “they” are going to draw “long, snaky districts that will reach into the cities” and “this was done by out-of-state people, not real Missourians”. It was as clear as a bell to me that they were saying “You’ll have black people in your district if you don’t let us undo this reform”, and the people in the rural areas who voted for Clean MO in 2018 dutifully undid what they voted for in 2020.
FelonyGovt
@schrodingers_cat: I’m so very sorry. What an awful day for you.
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
@mali muso: i give sharice davids a lot of credit. she endorsed jennifer carroll foy for the democrat gubernatorial primary, despite jcf being the exact same kind of tool that aoc & bernie are, those two being the very same people still belching “welder would have won”. were i in davids’s position, i would habe told jcf to foad & endorsed mc clellan or mc auliffe.
kudos to davids for being the bigger person. she’s precisely the opposite of the nina turner endorsing katie porter (who can also foad).
The Moar You Know
@schrodingers_cat: I haven’t owned a cat since 2006. The last one went easy, real easy (I made sure of that) but my heart got broken real good. This will be a hard, hard day for you, your cat, and everybody. Be strong for your kitty because they know when you’re sad or scared. You can break down and lose your shit after everything is said and done. I have, twice now.
I wish you ease and strength. Especially strength.
Kristine
@schrodingers_cat: I am sorry. I hope it’s a temporary thing that resolves quickly on its own or is treatable.
Old School
@schrodingers_cat: I’m sorry to hear this.
OzarkHillbilly
@Soprano2: In light of the recent decision to ignore Mierians desire for healthcare, I heard a radio spot for an interview with SoS Jay Ashcroft about their desire to limit the voters ability to put things on the ballot. I guess repeatedly telling us to go fuck ourselves and that we don’t know what’s best for us has gotten too embarrassing for them.
I didn’t think that was possible.
Matt McIrvin
@natem: A lot of the people I follow there are creative types–comedians, artists, writers. It seems to me like there’s no middle ground with these folks: either they’re right-wingers (and I don’t follow them) or they’re “Democrats suuuuck” left progressives of some sort. They can sometimes be convinced to tactically ally with liberals but they don’t have to like it.
I think the problem is that conventional liberalism inherently has an earnest cringey image that repels these people. It’s a teacher’s-pet ideology, your mom’s ideology. It cannot be cool.
r€nato
@MontyTheClipArtMongoose: clever take… I read Jacobin partly because I find some of their articles thought-provoking, partly to learn more about the Marxian perspective, partly to laugh at the more outlandish articles.
And I follow their FB page and especially the comments in large part to remind myself what far left actually is, and as well for the dark thrills I get from the spectacle of purity leftists angrily rejecting any politician, policy, or person that isn’t insta-Marxism. Oh and the occasional rationalizations for Stalin are also howlers.
Kristine
@schrodingers_cat: I am sorry. It’s so hard even when you know it’s the right thing to do.
Betty Cracker
@MontyTheClipArtMongoose: I think Nina Turner is a (politically) dangerous crackpot, and I wish Katie Porter had not endorsed her. But seriously, Porter — widely regarded as a smart and effective legislator who is an asset to Democrats — is dead to you because of that one dumb endorsement?
I don’t understand that type of thinking. It seems like exactly the kind of militant, personality-driven bullshit that people around here are always slagging on the Bernie people for.
Matt McIrvin
@r€nato: The dumbest Twitter-Marxist argument I ever saw was the guy who was trying to get people to stop using units of measurement. ALL units of measurement. Because measuring things with units was un-Marxist, somehow. He insisted that all science could be done without them, it’d be fine.
He seemed hung up on an image of old-timey monarchists defining the king’s foot as a unit of length.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@The Moar You Know:
Ohn well that makes a ton of sense. I wish that CNN article had mentioned that. Thanks!
Feathers
@Baud: From Julia Ioffe’s newsletter that arrived this morning:
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Betty Cracker: that post was hard for me to follow, but based on Renato’s reply, I think it was mocking the sort of Jacobin/Jimmy Done idea that AOC is a Neo-liberal sell-out. I once knew why they were saying that, but I forgot.
I have no doubts about Katie Porter’s intelligence, but her effectiveness…. helping make Nina Turner the face of OH Democrats may do more damage than any good she’s done (pace Lawrence O’Donnell) with her white board
I’m donating to Shontel Brown, and I love this ad, but I saw a post yesterday that Nina Bowl-Of-Shit is over 50% and Brown is under 20. I think the “Progressive” Caucus and the Justus Democrats are throwing a rock at whoever the OH Dem nominee for Senate is. I’m guardedly optimistic about the mid-terms, but these people who are still in the 2017 “Bernie would have won!” and “M4A is incredibly popular!” delusions make me very uneasy.
JWR
Just saw a clip of Lester Holt interviewing Kamala Harris, and boy, he really, really wants her to “go to the border”. citing Republican complaints, and Henry Cuellar’s border district, because of… reasons? But srsly, what do these idiots think any VP can do at the border? (Yes, that last sentence was rhetorical.) But Harris pedictably held her own, mentioning to this intrepid “journalist” that she was in Guatemala to get at the root of the friggin’ problem. Sheesh!
Tazj
@schrodingers_cat: I’m so sorry. I’m glad your vet will come to your house.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: In a similar situation about 10 years ago, I felt stuck. There was no clarity in the situation, and I just could not make a decision.
Then we got the ultrasound, and a second opinion, and the path forward was very clear.
You’ll know more after the vet visit today, and I suspect there will either be a way forward and a reason to hope, or it will be clear that you are at the end of the road.
One way or another, the way forward will be clear, and either way it goes, knowing you are doing right by your beloved boy is a gift that knows no bounds.
Hang in there today, we are all pulling for a good outcome.
WaterGirl
@Lacuna Synecdoche: It’s my understanding that there is a Republican trifecta in 23 states.
Ruckus
@Baud:
Several million times this.
yellowdog
@Nicole: People I’ve talked to are more worried about Adams.
WaterGirl
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You are looking at this in the worst possible way.
I don’t like the decision, either, but I completely understand it. Listen to some legal/political podcasts, like Lawfare and PopeHat’s podcast with Josh Barro.
They are not siding with Trump, they are protecting the institutions that are the DOJ and the Presidency. I’m not going to explain any further because both the podcasts above will give you the information you are missing.
Do your homework. :-)
Subsole
@Baud: Shouldn’t DOOM be in all-caps?
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: The GOP held all the major offices in WI (except one Senate seat) and worked hard to make it tough to vote. The people of WI turned out in numbers that overwhelmed the barriers. Since 2018, the tide has been turning. People just need to show up and vote.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m not a NYer, but I did see the other day that Adams (who besides being a former cop is I believe a former Republican?) seized on AOC’s endorsement of Maya Wiley. I’m a Maya Wiley fan, but she’s barely registered in the polls and I don’t think Adams needs to campaign against her, but he thinks there’s an electoral advantage in campaigning against AOC(!). In the swing region of (checks notes) New York City.
For context, I did read a couple of weeks ago that when Adams was a cop (and maybe a Republican), he was known in the department as a rabble-rouser on issues of racial discrimination within and by the NYPD.
The future of the county lies in places a lot less Bernie-friendly than New York City.
Omnes Omnibus
One is shocked. Shocked, one says.
@Subsole: Like this?
Subsole
@kindness: A gentleman I follow on twitter made a very simple and I think valid point.
40/60/90
That’s the target. Get white support above 40, keep brown and black above 60 and 90 respectively. The gomers have a damn hard time competing with those numbers.
Cameron
@OzarkHillbilly: ….again, same as in Florida, but the legislature is doing it by putting an oddly worded constitutional amendment on the ballot. It’s supposed to look like it supports citizen-initiated amendments when in fact it restricts them. Get the public to undermine itself.
WaterGirl
@WereBear: They found a mass in an x-ray, but as far as I understand, vet #1 didn’t suggest any possible treatments for determining whether that is a kidney stone, a benign mass, or cancer.
I think it makes perfect sense to wait for the other vet to visit today, with hopefully more information on whether there are possible treatments, or hope, or if this truly is the end of the road.
It’s not like SC is waiting a week for a second opinion. We all know that good information helps in decision-making, and it’s not at all clear that vet #1 has provided that. Hopefully vet #2 can.
Subsole
@schrodingers_cat: I’m so sorry. It always hurts so much. All we can do is give them love and comfort.
rikyrah
QUESTION:
We ARE sending the vaccine to our Military folks and their families abroad, right? Making sure that they get vaccinated?
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: For me, that disappointing decision makes me think less of Katie Porter, and it makes me doubt her judgment. As far as I’m concerned, it’s a mark on her permanent record, and I’ll pay closer attention to her future choices because of it.
But she’s definitely not dead to me.
rikyrah
@schrodingers_cat:
Oh SC.
I am so sorry. :(
Betty Cracker
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t know if the comment was intended to be a parody, but the opinion expressed isn’t uncommon in the subset of left/Democratic Twitter that reflexively hates progressives and anyone remotely adjacent to The Squad and spends more time shitting on them than criticizing Republicans, something they find distasteful when the shoe is on the other foot. It’s a real thing that should maybe adopt a yellow rose or something for easy reference. Personally, I find it every bit as tiresome as red rose Twitter.
Benw
@Subsole: coincidentally 40/60/90 are also basketball HOF shooting percentages!
We just gotta do everything it takes to hold onto Congress in 2022.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
What worries me is the real possibility of a Dem winning an election at the state level in a tidal wave but then the GQP-controlled legislature throwing it out because of “obvious fraud” and awarding the election to the Republican who barely cleared a third of the vote. I wouldn’t put it past them at this point.
germy
@Omnes Omnibus:
Some of the legislation they’re trying to pass… aren’t they trying to make it legal to override any votes they don’t like?
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I completely agree with you, though the laws that allow them to overturn results that they don’t like is a completely different deal than voter suppression.
I was challenging the statement that there are 30 states with the fact that there are 23 states with Republican trifectas.
I am wondering where the 30 state number came from.
Subsole
@rikyrah: Good morning!
Cameron
@r€nato: I sometime find interesting articles there. Don’t know how many are Marxists vs. how many are performance-Marxists.
Omnes Omnibus
@germy: Any such law would not survive state federal constitutional scrutiny. Courts may let rules set prior to an election go under the theory that states get to run their elections. But once a result has been obtained under those rules, I doubt any court system would let a legislature overturn it.*
*Awaiting call outs for my naivety, etc.
Matt McIrvin
I don’t know how to feel about the doom-mongering: here, Adam Silverman says stuff on the regular that makes me pretty damn anxious about there being any way forward that doesn’t involve a choice between tyranny or mass bloodshed.
With the front-pagers on LGM there’s this weird mood whiplash–on the subject of COVID-19, cockeyed optimism to the point of excess and denigration of “Eeyores”, then wailings of DOOOOOOOM on all other subjects.
Subsole
@Matt McIrvin: That sounds disturbingly like the fundiegelical efforts to throw out set theory…
Just One More Canuck
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Adam had a good post about this last night
Subsole
@JWR:
That media narrative stems from how I expect most of them feel about refugees.
They don’t want the problem solved, they just want the riffraff out of their sight.
Same way they feel about homeless folks.
gvg
@schrodingers_cat:
one of my old cats wasn’t interested in food I put down for her (as I always had in the past) but would lick it off my fingers or eat from my hand, apparently just to please me.
Soprano2
@OzarkHillbilly: Yep, I saw that. I guess she’s done with public office, at least for now.
Subsole
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yes. That will do nicely.
It may also be rendered in the style of Latveria’s reigning monarch.
germy
@Omnes Omnibus:
I won’t call you naive. At times I find myself worrying about the judges that Trump/McConnell pushed through. But then I remember how Trump was flabbergasted when judges he appointed didn’t vote his way.
apocalipstick
@OzarkHillbilly: See “Medicaid expansion”, amirite? Is your rep J. Smith or B. Long?
Subsole
@Benw: Interesting.
I know we turfed the gomers out here in DFW, took Ft Worth city council last I heard.
If the GOP is losing the burbs, they have problems.
CaseyL
@schrodingers_cat: Please let us know what the 2nd vet says.
“Force feeding” by eyedropper isn’t cruel or stressful; it’s how I got fluid into my elderly Siamese after her dialysis. (Along with hand-feeding her things like pre-chewed crab and chicken.) She was like a limp carpet for two days, then came back like a fury on the 3rd.
smith
@Matt McIrvin: Yeah, I’ve had to stop reading LGM because every other post seems to be an obituary for American democracy.
Subsole
@Omnes Omnibus: Everybody toss a couple bucks at Marc Elias, just the same.
apocalipstick
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yes. The Westfall Act says the DOJ “shall” defend public officials in defamation suits. It’s a bitch to admit, but Garland’s DOJ is following the law, unlike Barr’s DOJ.
Soprano2
I think the people voting to expand Medicaid broke them, and they decided to take our ability to do anything else like that away from us. I think they also want to get rid of the minimum wage amendment, but they know they can’t do that unless they can keep referendums off the ballot (unless they want to put them there, of course). They also probably think they can pass right-to-work once they take away our ability to undo it.
Subsole
@smith: I left during the Trump years. Their American Grave series was always a treat, but dear god the comments section got so dark it was pissing licorice.
apocalipstick
@OzarkHillbilly: Ayup.
Johnny Gentle (famous crooner)
Not to be pessimistic, but I’ll believe it when I see it. What I have seen is that our voters follow one of two pattern in midterms when there’s a Democrat in the White House:
The only time Democrats show up to vote in midterms is when there’s a Republican in the White House and they’re sufficiently fed up (see: 2018; 2006 but not 2002). Needless to say, Republicans vote like hell in every election because it’s not about midterms being “referendum on the President” or whatever, but about trying to preserve their very existence against the evil Democratic hordes. If only our voters viewed midterms with as much urgency.
apocalipstick
@Soprano2: I think Springfield metro is the fastest growing area of the state.
apocalipstick
@OzarkHillbilly: After the Hawley/ Ashcroft dirty trick, I’m surprised she didn’t announce with both middle fingers raised.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@apocalipstick: Is Ashcroft still with us? I think of him, what a thumb in the eye he was from the Accidental President, every time I hear ex-Bushies dramatically ask if Biden gets what’s happening in this country.
Of him, of Alberto Gonzalez, of John Roberts… trump didn’t invent anything in Republican politics, he was like a radioactive spider-bite to what was already there.
Soprano2
@apocalipstick: Mine is B. Long, ugh.
MontyTheClipArtMongoose
@Betty Cracker: katie has all the political instinct of her mentor elizabeth warren. god love her, & i hope she holds her orange county district for awhile, but she’s not bound for bigger things. just a tonedeaf moron.
The Moar You Know
@rikyrah: At the moment, because the vaccine is still “experimental”, getting vaccinated is optional save for a VERY limited number of personnel in certain occupations. From what I understand, a lot of the personnel who have the option are exercising their option to refuse. This is of concern.
When the status changes from “experimental”, which will be fairly soon, those military personnel will be vaccinated or discharged. Their families will have to be vaccinated or they cannot use base services. Most contractors have plans in the works to insure that all their personnel are vaccinated. My workplace will be instituting a “vaxxed or fired” policy.
J R in WV
@schrodingers_cat:
So sorry for your situation with your kitty. They are so strong and independent, until one day they are not, and need you to do what you can for them.
Take care of yourself, also. So glad you have a vet making a house call, that’s so very helpful!
Soprano2
It’s Jay Ashcroft, his son, who is our Sec of State. They’re a political family in MO.
Soprano2
@apocalipstick: That might be right. I’m going to be interested to see what the 2020 Census shows. We managed to get two Democrats elected to the state House from the area; I figure the Republicans will try to redistrict at least one of them out of a seat. It is getting more and more “sophisticated” here, but it’s slow, and we also get a lot of conservatives from other states.
WereBear
@WaterGirl:
Thanks for letting me know. That does change things considerably.
Benw
@Subsole: I heard the joke in another thread that TX is actually a blue state with voter suppression! Hopefully you guys can turn the tide
Kay
@Omnes Omnibus:
This doesn’t address the issue at all though, Omnes. The rule changes in GOP states as to administration of elections are intended to reach a specific result. They won’t have to overturn. They set it up ahead of time not to have to do that.
Nicole
@yellowdog:
Yeah, I’m not excited about Adams, either. I worry that a Democrat running as Republican-lite just ends up making it possible for the actual Republican to win. I know Dems outnumber GOP voters something like 8-1 here, but Bloomberg won his first term running as a Republican.
My top pick right now is Garcia, who has had a bit of a surge; I can only hope that it keeps going. I don’t agree with her on everything; I’m more liberal than she is for sure, but I like the thought of having someone who has experience managing a big department in NYC government. I am tired of rich guys jumping into high levels of government (and I think mayor of NYC is one of the hardest jobs in the country) without any experience in government. To that point, I am glad that Yang isn’t in first place anymore. And for fucks’ sake, Stringer, just DROP OUT ALREADY.
schrodingers_cat
@WereBear: D1 did an x-ray and an ultrasound. It is a tumor, and is inoperable according to him. And renal cancers in kittens don’t respond to chemo according to him.
Boss cat is wobbly he can barely standup. It is sad to him like this.
apocalipstick
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Jay Ashcroft, son of “Naked Liberty Gives Me A Chubbie”.
apocalipstick
@Soprano2: Plenty of people moving to the Ozark/Nixa/Republic axis are still pretty right-wing.
yellowdog
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: It most certainly will happen. Probably several times.
TheTruffle
So…Twitter is not real life. It is such a center of gloom and sadness these days. Why am I still there?
schrodingers_cat
@CaseyL: Thanks, I know this. That’s how I nursed my orange kitteh back to health when she had a blockage and was refusing to eat.
yellowdog
@WaterGirl: There are states like WI and MI that don’t have a trifecta but have a veto-proof GQP majority in both house of the legislature.
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
Mostly I don’t much care one way or another. People should be able to express what they want in this forum, even if it is fear or frustration. And I don’t buy into any argument that someone else’s feelings of doom is going to drive me into despair.
I do believe that democracy is being threatened, but right now there is not much to do except to get ready for the mid-terms. Part of me would like to drag every Republican out of Congress and onto the streets, and to outlaw the GOP, but that would also mean discarding democracy. Even if we could get enough people to go along with this.
So it comes down to supporting the right candidates and voting when the elections roll around.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kay: I was addressing specific concerns that state legislatures were enacting laws that would allow them to overturn election results they did not like.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m so sorry about all this. Poor cat.
planetjanet
@mali muso: Even in primaries, I think you need to vote for someone who can win the general. JFC has run a good campaign, but Youngkin is so extreme, I don’t want to take the risk.
germy
germy
@apocalipstick:
I suppose that’s better than “Naked chubbie gives me liberty.”
germy
@MontyTheClipArtMongoose:
Calling her a tonedeaf moron seems rather extreme.
Elizabelle
@planetjanet: I wish Jennifer Carroll Foy (!) had run for Lt. Governor. Would have voted for her in a heartbeat. She is phenomenal and has a bright future.
Up against Mr. 6’5″ white male GOP moneybags (estimated $300 million personal fortune; former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group) who is now going to pivot to “moderate”, after campaigning with Ted Cruz and being endorsed by TFG?
Terry McA is the safer bet there; why he is heavily favored even with some marvelous new contenders in the race.
Lyrebird
@schrodingers_cat:
sending thoughts of healing, whatever that should mean for Boss Cat, and peace
Elizabelle
@germy: Yeah. And you will have seen the “democrat primary” upthread. Uh huh.
Gin & Tonic
Went down to Maryland for a quick visit to the grandkids. First time experiencing cicadas. Wow!
Cameron
@germy: Isn’t that by design?
Cmorenc
@schrodingers_cat:
Unfortunately, when older cats or dogs stop eating, that is often a signal that they acceptingly recognize they are imminently approaching the rainbow bridge. Happened just a few weeks ago with our beloved nearly 19yo Italian greyhound, who stopped eating three days before she passed, and her appetite had quite noticeably declined a couple weeks before that. It was very hard for us to bring ourselves to recognize what was happening, but in retrospect we realize our acceptance to ease her gracefully out if this life was the right loving thing to do for het
germy
@Elizabelle:
?
mali muso
@planetjanet:
@Elizabelle:
That’s fair. I think I have an emotional investment in her as she bothered to show up back in 2019 for some very local retail-politicking here in my small town for a Dem candidate for state delegate. Having met her and seen her speaking enthuse and wake up a pretty white collection of placid local Dems made an impression on me. Agree though that Terry Mac has the best chance in the general.
CaseyL
@schrodingers_cat: My apologies; I should have known that as a veteran catmom you would know this stuff already. I missed your comment about the xray finding an inoperable mass. Not great news. Poor old Boss Cat.
germy
Elizabelle
@mali muso: Oh yeah. JCFoy showed up for Abigail Spanberger in 2018 too. She is very, very good at retail politics. Maybe 2023 for her. I think she would have aced Lt.Gov; aimed a tad high, but maybe that is what you do when you are hoping to raise your statewide profile. Or for lightning to strike.
Jennifer Carroll Foy. Jennifer Wexton. Elaine Luria. Among many. We have so many good women out there.
MomSense
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m so sorry.
stinger
@Nicole:
Thank you — this is one of the most helpful takes I’ve heard. Hope I can keep it in mind the next time I’m in SC’s position.
@schrodingers_cat: So very sorry; wishing you strength and comfort.
Elizabelle
@germy: Mongoose’s comment upthread. Self-professed Mr. Mrs. or Bot Democrat, and talking absolute shit about some Democrat (sic) women. Over several comments. I found it interesting.
Would have told jcf (Jennifer Carroll Foy) to fuck off and die?
Yeah, I hear that constantly. Not. Actually, never.
germy
@Elizabelle:
Ah, I see now. Thank you for the clarification.
Matt McIrvin
@stinger: It’s true–some pets, such as large parrots, are so long-lived that they stand a good chance of outliving their humans, and this can actually be a serious problem.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@WaterGirl:
Yes, but Republicans control 30 state legislatures – which is where a lot of district boundaries are drawn up.
You can find both numbers (23 and 30) at the Wikipedia entry I linked there.
schrodingers_cat
@CaseyL: You have nothing to apologize about. There was one thoughtless comment telling me what to do (not by you) everyone else has been wonderful.
Elizabelle
Here is Jennifer Carroll Foy. This is someone you are going to tell to FOAD? I think not. From her campaign website. She is marvelous. I haven’t voted yet today, and will probably vote Terry Mac, mainly to stop the pundon’ts from flapping their lips about — Is Terry Mac vulnerable?? Does turnout for JCFoy spell defeat for Democrats this fall? In disarray!!
WaterGirl
@yellowdog: Ah. thanks for that information.
Soprano2
@apocalipstick: Oh yeah, they are.
Amir Khalid
@schrodingers_cat:
You have done everything humanly possible to save him. But it looks like what’s best now is to let his suffering end, and that’s what I think the vet will say. Say the best goodbyes you can; make sure he passes knowing he was loved.
Peace and strength to you, and to him.
Omnes Omnibus
@Elizabelle: Well, now that I know she went VMI, she can definitely FOAD. Dime store West Point.
Elizabelle
@Omnes Omnibus: LOL.
sab
@schrodingers_cat: I hadn’t wanted to pipe in while you decided. I have had mostly dogs and they have shorter lifespans than cats. But with one exception, my only regrets, and they are deep regrets, are when I didn’t let a mortally ill pet go easily because I loved them so much.
OzarkHillbilly
@apocalipstick: The tits on a boar that is J. Smith.