There’s about an hour to go before Yair Lapid’s mandate to form a government expires. He has to have everything agreed to and signed by midnight local time in Israel. So is the coalition agreement real?
The good news is that the Ra’am Party, which is the Islamist Arab-Israeli party, has agreed and signed off on the agreement. This is historically significant as it is both the first time that an Arab-Israeli party has been involved in forming a government, but because the agreement had to accepted by Ra’am’s Shura Council. Basically, if this coalition government is formed it will be doing so under the approval of an Islamic Council! That’s an amazing thing.
Whatever happens tonight and in the days left until the confidence vote if it ever takes place, this is a historic photo. A leader of an Arab-Israeli party and the leaders of a Jewish-nationalist party signing an agreement to join a government together pic.twitter.com/ahGijY6qgc
— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) June 2, 2021
The bad news is that it is still unclear if MK Ayelet Shaked actually wants to join the coalition or if she’s just jerking everyone around because she thinks it will position herself better to reenter and eventually take over Likud or do something else on the extreme right of Israeli politics. Shaked, along with her colleague Gideon Sa’ar, are more extreme than both Bibi and Naftali Bennett. They are both textbook fascists. Shaked even went so far as to make a political ad – THAT IS NOT A SPOOF OR A JOKE OR SELF DEPRECATING HUMOR MAKING FUN OF HER POLITICAL REPUTATION – embracing fascism and stating it smells like democracy. That’s the tag line at the end in Hebrew in the ad below:
Ayelet Shaked, Naftali Bennett's #2 & woman who sprayed herself with eau de fascism while purring "I dunno. For me its the scent of democracy" now says that if she doesn't get a seat on the judicial appointments committee she's nixing the new government. pic.twitter.com/JlPRYAQ3r8
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) May 31, 2021
Noga Tarnopolsky explains Shaked’s motivations and behavior:
Ayelet Shaked really doesn’t want the change government. Dragging the entire country to a dramatic High Noon– which risks the entire Lapid-Bennett coalition– is a hell of a way to show it. There’s much speculation that her target all along has just been to get the #2 Likud spot.
Anshel Pfeffer, Bibi’s unauthorized biographer and a reporter and columnist for both Haaretz and The Economist explains what is going on. I’m going to copy and paste the tweet texts into quote boxes so as not to muck up the site loading and functioning. Here’s the link to the first tweet in the thread:
The main obstacles to notifying tonight almost resolved. Michaeli about to give up her seat on judicial appointments committee and Ra’am will sign on the understanding that extent of retroactive building permits TBD. Meanwhile there may be another defector in Yamina. 2 more hours
Even if they all sign tonight, keeping this coalition together just for a week or so longer until the confidence vote is held will be a nightmare
Ra’am has just signed Lapid’s letter to the president notifying him that they will support the government. The first Arab-Israeli party ever to do so. But it’s not over yet. Yamina, which may be already disintegrating, and New Hope yet to sign. And hour and 3 quarters left.
Yamina is Bennett’s party and New Hope is the party that Sa’ar and Shaked founded when they first broke from Bibi before Shaked jumped ship to Bennet’s party after she and Sa’ar flamed out electorally in the previous rounds of elections.
Pfeffer continues to explain the season of Naftali Bennett’s inability to close the deal:
Right now it looks like Bennett may have also signed already on behalf of his party but his party may not be with him. And he’s supposed to be the prime minister of this new government. All up in the air right now with 80 minutes to go.
With 22 minutes to go, this is where we are as reported by Pfeffer:
All 8 parties, including Bennett’s Yamina, have signed. Announcement delayed because Bennett is still trying to present a joint front of his own party. Lapid’s announcement imminent though.
And that’s really where we stand with 40 minutes left to go. Bennett, who is bringing only 7 members to this coalition and is still being made prime minister despite being an extreme minority in the coalition, has signed, but no one knows if his signature is any good because he may have two defectors in his own party and another – Sa’ar – in the right-nationalist parts of the change coalition that he is bringing to the agreement. Basically, right now this is Schroedinger’s governing coalition. It both exists and does not exist at the same time. And even if it does exist before midnight, it may not exist by the time the government is supposed to actually begin next week.
I’ll update if/when more information is forthcoming.
Update at 4:30 PM EDT
And we have a change coalition government! If Lapid can keep it…
Yair Lapid just notified President Rivlin that he’s succeeded in forming a government
Open thread!
raven
Man this shit is complicated!
Adam L Silverman
@raven: I can make the three Jews five opinions joke if you think it would help anything?
MattF
And, one assumes, Netanyahu is doing his best to throw as many wrenches into the melee as possible.
Adam L Silverman
And we have a change coalition government, if Lapid can keep it!
dmsilev
“Legislative body less functional than the US Senate” is a feat. Not a good feat, mind you, but definitely an accomplishment.
raven
Ok, I know this thread is serious but you have to see this teenage girl push a fucking bear of her back fence to save her dogs
“She is my mother’s emotional support animal, and I couldn’t bear to let anything happen to her because I know, like, the pain would have been too much for my mom to handle. I think that I did this for her.”
cmorenc
Strange, but we should at least temporarily root for the fascists in Israel, if the result is to kick Bibi out of office. The whole world has indeed gone mad for that to even be momentarily the better option.
Adam L Silverman
@MattF: Correct. Expect the threats and intimidation to be significantly ramped up between now and the new government actually being sworn in next week on the public side. And the promises and enticements Bibi is going to throw at Shaked and a couple of other members of this coalition will be ramped up privately so that it falls apart before the government can be sworn in next week.
My guess is that if this falls apart it is going to be because of one of two things. The first is that the threats and intimidation lead to actual violence and one or more of these coalition members and/or their families are seriously hurt if not killed. Bibi’s surrogates, including his son and his brother in law, are really working that angle. The second is that Shaked really wants to be the leader of the Israeli neo-nationalist/neo-fascist right. I would not be surprised if she dramatically betrays Bennett and realigns herself with Likud next week to prevent the change coalition from every being sworn in. Thereby positioning herself as the true heir apparent for Bibi’s coalition. She’s the one to watch here.
Citizen Alan
Off topic:
Barring something unexpected happening between now and then, I will be starting the Bankruptcy LLM program at St. John’s University in Queens NY this August. Yes, the loud-mouthed liberal from Mississippi is moving to the Big City. However, I am now in a panic mode about housing, as I missed the deadline for student housing and am on a waiting list. It’s probably too much to hope for but are their any Jackals from the Queens area who can give me some advise on where to get an apartment reasonably convenient to St. John’s?
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Why only five? Is one of the three a mute?
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
Good.
(Lapid and Likud will continue interposing one another in my head, making it hurt more than it already does.)
Adam L Silverman
@cmorenc: No, no we should not. Bennett, Sa’ar, and Shaked are worse than Bibi. Bennett is just as extreme and Sa’ar and Shaked are even more extreme and none of them have his criminal baggage. Shaked is the most dangerous of them all. While Bennett is independently wealthy, Shaked is the smartest of the three, the most ruthless, and an open, avowed fascist. Shaked is the closest thing that Israel has to a true fascist strong(wo)man in waiting. If she comes to power, all bets are off. Part of the reason she held up the negotiators until she was given a spot on the judicial nominations committee is she wants to pack the Israeli courts with fascists like herself who will rubber stamp her tyranny if she ever gets a chance to take over the Israeli government.
David Anderson
@Citizen Alan: I’ll front page this tonight.
Dave
zhena gogolia
@Citizen Alan:
Congratulations! You should post this query again in an open thread. I think it might get buried here
ETA: David beat me to it.
Booger
Shaked, not stirred?
Gin & Tonic
@Citizen Alan: You’ll need to define what “reasonably convenient” means for you. Will you be relying on public transportation, or will you have a car? If the latter, you can go farther afield, but keep in mind that many neighborhoods in Queens are challenging for parking. You may want to extend your search to Nassau County in that case.
Martin
I don’t think the fascists are winning, but they’re winning more than they should be. I hope Israel can fight it off.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: He went to refill his plate from the bagel bar.
SiubhanDuinne
@Citizen Alan:
I haven’t seen her around much lately, but Helen in Eire is from Queens and knows the borough well. If she doesn’t see your request, maybe one of the front-pagers can put you in touch by email.
Good luck with both the apartment-hunting and the new course!
sdhays
@Martin: It seems to me that the problem is that fascists in Israel have a majority, they just can’t agree on whether they hate or merely dislike Benjamin Netanyahu. Right now, enough of them are leaning towards hating him, but it doesn’t seem likely to hold.
MattF
@Martin: One hopes. But fascists don’t need (or want) a majority to take over.
Elizabelle
@Citizen Alan: Wonderful news! Good luck with the program. How long will it take to complete the degree?
Getting you out of Mississippi can only be a good move!
Old School
So it’s bad that the new government has formed? And bad if it would have failed?
Adam L Silverman
@Old School: It is tentatively good. I am also not sure how long it will last or even if it will get to the confidence vote and being sworn in.
rikyrah
@Adam L Silverman:
Interesting
StringOnAStick
@Adam L Silverman: I never thought I’d be anything but pleased to see Bibi out of power, and here I am hoping he manages to tank this coalition. It’s good/bad no matter what happens?
I heard the news today about the Iranian navy ship that caught fire and sank along with some other infrastructure disaster in Iran, and the first thing I think is “Israel probably had a hand in this” whenever similar news happens in the ME. it saddens me beyond words what Israel has become in recent decades, and how our foreign policy is so strongly tied to a country running headlong into fascism.
Adam L Silverman
@rikyrah: The Speaker of the Knesset, who is Bibi’s handpicked catspaw and trusted agent, has already stated he will not hold the confidence vote necessary for the new coalition to become official and the new government to be formed. No one knows whether this is legal or not. Or whether he actually does it or not. But if he pulls it off, then Bibi remains caretaker PM.
There are still a lot of moving pieces here. And a lot of treachery to be dealt.
Adam L Silverman
@StringOnAStick: This coalition would be better than more Bibi in a lot of ways. I’m just not sure it is going to actually make it to and through the confidence vote so that the coalition can actually become the government.
Mary G
Well, if we’re any example Bibi will proclaim that the election was rigged and the evidence is on a server in Tahiti. A mob will tear up the Knesset.
It is good that the Arab Israeli party is playing the part of the Lincoln Project.
cain
@Booger:
stir crazy – like the movie.
Geminid
@Citizen Alan: I wish you good luck on finding housing, and best wishes on your new professional path!
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman:
Thank you for presenting the key points for us readers…
Pray for Peace
Thanks to Reba too!
Elliott
@Adam L Silverman: did he say that or just that he planned to delay it the maximum allowed time of 7 days?
Kent
So, if this new government forms, and then ends up failing. What happens next? Another round of elections? Or somehow Bibi worms his way back into power?
piratedan
is there a “possibility” that Shaked stays in the Government only the be the unseen hand that puts Netanyahu in jail where she can start to co-opt his assets?
Adam L Silverman
@Mary G: That’s not what is happening here. The Lincoln Project’s Schmidt and Wilson actually ran Sa’ar’s campaign in the last round of elections because they determined that he was a viable alternative to Bibi. He was not! His New Hope Party got almost no seats. And they ignored the fact that Sa’ar is an anti-liberal democracy fascist.
What does that tell you?
Adam L Silverman
@Elliott: I haven’t seen a direct quote, so I don’t know.
Adam L Silverman
@piratedan: That’s not how it works.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent: Another round of elections.
sdhays
@Kent: I’m just speculating based on what we’ve seen over the past few years, but I’m guessing that if they can make it to the confidence vote, then Bennet gets to be in the situation that Netanyahu has been in until another government is created – PM or caretaker PM (if there’s another election and no one can form a new government).
Martin
@Citizen Alan: @Gin & Tonic: Yeah, car is a PITA there – at least it used to be.
St Johns is no more than a mile from Jamaica station which opens up much of the LIRR to you if you want to head out into Nassau County, or anything in Queens along the F train will be convenient.
Jamaica station is a major station and a major transfer point on the LIRR, so lots of trains will stop there. A bit pricier than the subway and requires a bit more planning. But I lived a mile from the LIRR and would take it into either Jamaica (E/F train) or Woodside (7 train) pretty often.
Freeport to Jamaica is maybe 20-25 minutes, with a train roughly every half hour during peak time. You then have a 20-30 minute walk to campus.
The F train cuts through a lot of Queens, so Jackson Heights, Forest Hills.
Not sure Nassau County would be any cheaper, but it’ll be more suburban and easier to own a car. If you live in Queens, skip the car and rely on the trains.
Citizen Alan
@Elizabelle: Officially, a year, but if I can get a job as well, I’ll stretch it out to two. All the classes are taught at night, so the program is really built for part time students,.
Chief Oshkosh
So why do I care about Israel again? Why are any of my tax dollars going to them? I need reminding every once in a while.
Emma from Miami
You know, “female Jewish fascist” is a combination of words I never expected to see.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: You sure they ignored he was a fascist? I always got the sense that they were good with fascists provided they were the right kind of fascist.
piratedan
@Adam L Silverman: my apologies, was busy connecting dots over her supposed desire to have a hand in the judiciary and wanting to be the heiress apparent for the right wing in Isreali politics and what better way than to put the guy who is nominally in charge out of the way in prison. Guessing that there aren’t dots to collect more than motivations to be sorted
Martin
@Chief Oshkosh: You care about Israel because we need as many functioning democracies as we can get in the world right now, lest we stop being one ourselves.
Elliott
Many Israelis pride themselves on being obstinate, stubborn ,a**holes, resolute, and practical. I think that pressure could backfire on netanyahu, but I am not a student of the various personalities. I do believe assassination is a real possibility, but I am sure that noone in Israel treats it with the same head in the sand mentality US politicians do.
Emma from Miami
@Martin: “functioning democracy” is pulling a lot of weight there.
MomSense
I have no idea what to hope for at this point. It’s all so depressing.
Chief Oshkosh
@Martin: Hm. I will stipulate that there’s a sort of voting that occurs there, but not sure about how much of a functioning democracy it is.
Chief Oshkosh
@Chief Oshkosh: And more to the point, I guess, has unwavering US support made it a better democracy? More functional? I am not sure.
Kay
@Citizen Alan:
Yay! Congrats.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Mary G
@Adam L Silverman: They have no actual principles except “Show Me the Money” and are also bad at getting their clients elected?
Ken
The check cleared.
Geminid
The proposed “change” coalition covers a lot of political space: two “Left” parties, Meretz with 6 MKs, Labor with 7 MKs; two “center” parties, Lapid’s Yesh Atid with 17 MKs, and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, with 8MKs; three “right” parties, Bennett’s Yamina with 7 MKs, Saar’s New Hope with 6 MKs, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitanyu with 7MKs; and Mansour Abbas’ Arab party Ra’am, with 4 MKs.
Yair Lapid has put the best face he can on the coalition, saying that even if Yesh Atid had 47 MKs instead of 17, he would still want a unity government spanning ideological divisions. That may be, but two things seem certain: these party leaders are fed up with Netanyahu; some, like Lieberman, hate his guts. And Netanyahu can be counted on to exert maximum pressure to break this coalition before the Knesset vote.
Martin
@Emma from Miami: I wasn’t claiming it was a functioning democracy, only that we want it to be one. It can still at least see functioning democracy out there on the horizon.
Ken
Fortunately there’s an entire multimedia franchise (Wikipedia’s words) available to remind you.
Eschatology, getcha eschatology here! Premillenial, postmillenial, pretribulation, postribulation, we got ’em in all flavors!
Martin
@Geminid: I’m thinking a coalition of settler party and Arab party is more a statement on how much everyone despises Bibi than it is on whether they can make this function. I mean, we allied with the USSR, at least until Hitler died.
Geminid
@Chief Oshkosh: You can blame Jimmy Carter for some of those Israel-bound tax dollars. He brokered the Israel/Egypt peace treaty. While the U.S. did not sign the Camp David treaty, we informally guaranteed it with a commitment to give Israel and Egypt $2 billion a year each in military aid.
JMG
1978 was a long long time ago. There’s no reason for us to give $2 billion in military aid to either country. Israel’s military can more than take care of itself and Egypt’s military is good for nothing but brutalizing and oppressing its own citizens.
Geminid
@Martin: The two “left” parties are interesting coalition partners. Once-mighty Labor had fallen on hard times this century. And Meretz, as close to a peace party as any Jewish party, fell from 12 MKs before the Second Intifada to barely passing the 3.25% threashold. When the latest election campaign began, many thought Labor and Meretz had to combine to avoid elimination. In the event, Labor elected 7 MKs, and Meretz got 6. This was considered to be a real comeback for each party.
Elizabelle
Can a girl dream that Bibi, and that fucking guy (from our own country), will face trials for corruption and other criminal acts? Bring it on.
Geminid
@Elizabelle: Netanyahu’s trial for three counts of corruption started last month. Judges are currently hearing the defense’s cross examination on prosecution witnesses for the first count. Knowledgeable observers estimate that between the slow pace of the trial and expected appeals, it may take two years for a definitive result.
Bill Arnold
Technical question for Geminid and/or Adam.
All the talk is of defections from the Lapid coalition.
What are the odds of defections to the Lapid coalition? And is that angle being actively worked by those who loath B. Netanyahu?
Cheryl Rofer
West of the Cascades
@Geminid: If my math is right, this coalition has 62 MKs and thus can survive the defection of exactly one MK – right?
Bill Arnold
@West of the Cascades:
Technically, net defections; e.g. there may be some serious Netanyahu-loathers among the remaining Knesset members. Looks like it. I mentally summed the nice chart that Cheryl linked, top to bottom and then bottom to top and got 62.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: The five parties outside this coalition are unlikely to provide any defectors. The radical right National religious party has six rabidly bigoted and racist MKs. Two more traditional Ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah, have 14 MKs who do what the head rabbis tell them, and the rabbis are adamantly against a coalition with the “Left.” Likud has 30 MKs, but it seems like Likud defectors have already defected. The Arab Joint List might provide some tacit support, but publically they reject the coalition. And they have an axe to grind against Abbas, who with his Ra’am Party defected from the Joint List.
The last election saw some of the Jewish politicians, even Netanyahu, wooing Arab voters. But Arab voters did not even come out for the Arab politicians. In the election before, the Joint List elected 15 MKs, but after the last one the Joint list plus Ra’am totaled only 10. This disaffection may have presaged the outbreak of unrest among Arab Israeli citizens during the recent war with Gaza. The strife between Arab and Jewish Israelis alarmed many Jewish Israelis much more than the fight with Gaza, which they had expected.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: A couple Likud politicians are talking about challenging Netanyahu in a party primary. One, I believe the Knesset Speaker, let it be known that he had proposed to Netanyahu a month ago that he step down in order to enable a right wing coalition.
Interestingly, one MK from the renegade Gideon Saar’s New Hope party is Bennie Begin, son of Likud founder and Prime Miinister Menachem Begin.
Adam L Silverman
@Mary G: This is true.
Adam L Silverman
@Ken: This is also true.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: I’m not really sure there is anyone left to get. The only really outstanding party/party bloc that might be gettable to add to the coalition is the Joint List. Which is, at its core, the secular Arab Israeli party. They’ve made it clear they’ll be supportive from outside the coalition. Other than them, everyone else is Likud, the ultra-Religious parties, and the Kahanists. None of them are going to join.
Elizabelle
@Geminid: I hate having to be patient. But will be.
We are all Madame Defarge.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Gideon Sa’ar is in no way, shape, or form liberal. Whoever came up with National Liberalism to define where he positions himself is wrong.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chief Oshkosh: I don’t know. Why do you care?
Subsole
@Adam L Silverman:
Once a mercenary, always a mercenary??
debbie
Just finished putting in an 11-hour day, so the eyes aren’t able to read the entire thread, but the 4:30 update makes the entire crapping day worth it!
Subsole
@Chief Oshkosh:
Because Ariel Sharon ran a very different ship, and some things change very slowly.
Also because the Evangelicals pull a lot of weight with a lot of senators, and they need Israel to exist so it can get nuked as a sign of the Rapture.
Also because they are afraid Aryan Patriot Open Carry Freemarket Yeshua will throw them out of heaven if they don’t suck up to Israel because Abraham, or something.
Geminid
@Subsole: I have an acquaintance who has fallen for the evangelical portrayal of Israel. John romanticizes, even idealizes Israelis. He wants to go there and help defend Jews. I point out to him that their gun licensing laws are much stricter than ours. I don’t say it, but he could never pass the mental competence exam.
I’ve also noticed that while evangilical and other conservatives idealize Jewish people who live in Israel, they seem more ambivalent about Jewish people who live in the U.S.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: Don’t forget to mention that Israel has taxpayer funded abortion on demand!
Subsole
@Geminid: Yeah. A lot of that where I used to live.
I would point out that Israel has demonstrated, repeatedly, that they can defend themselves.
It got to be depressing after awhile.
I would like to think their Savior would be more impressed with them opening a spouses’ shelter or soup kitchen than he would by them shooting someone.
Geminid
@West of the Cascades: Man, I don’t know. It could be that as long as the Arab parties abstain in a no-confidence vote, Lapid’s coalition could survive with 58 MKs. But Israeli politics are complex and confusing, especially now. I follow as best I can though The Times of Israel and the Jerusalem Post.* But I just achieve a more informed confusion. Then I want to take a break and learn about simple subjects, like New York City Democratic politics.
*The liberal Haaretz is a better source, but it is paywalled, so I just check out headlines and leads there. I’ve noticed, though, that Haaretz is more forthright in reporting on injustices done to Palestinians living under Israeli conrol. Whether by accident or design, these articles are often available in full to non-subscribers..
Raven Onthill
The “Everyone hates Bibi” coalition. If it lets the legal wheels start turning, I’m for it.
Bill Arnold
Yossi Cohen, B. Netanyahu’s assassination-chief stepped down late May.
New guy might be less … flamboyant.
Israel: Expect fewer assassinations and less noise from Mossad’s new leader – David Barnea has worked closely with Yossi Cohen on all of the spy agency’s top ops since 2019, but that doesn’t mean he’ll inherit his penchant for PR and killings (Yossi Melman, 27 May 2021, site has pro-Qatar bias.)