A bit of good news:
We were stuck at 70K cases/day for a long time
In mid-April, cases started falling
It took 10 days to go from 70K to 60K
8 days later, we were at 50K/day
Its been 6 days and about to dip below 40K
Soon, we'll get to 30K
This is exponential decay
And its a good thing
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) May 10, 2021
Right now, the national R(eproductive) is 0.9 which means for every ten people currently infected, they will infect about nine new people. At current pace, we’ll cut our daily caseload in half in under a month and by 75% in less than 50 days. Exponential decay works in our favor just like exponential growth kicked us in the junk last fall.
Every day that a non-vaccinated person is uninfected, it increases the odds that they will be vaccinated and more importantly, it increases the density of social interactions where at least one person is vaccinated. The virus will continue to spread, but it is facing a far more difficult time this year than last year in spreading even as the current dominant variant is naturally more infectious this year than last year. We are also entering prime outdoor time where people are going to be naturally spread out and breathing in very well ventilated spaces. We won’t be sharing as much air.
The combination of vaccinations and seasonality of social activity should give us a good chance over the summer to locally squash COVID to isolated clusters by the time the schools are open for the Academic 2021-2022 year. If we are able to drive down local case counts to a point where testing, tracing and isolating can be nearly universal, we can keep small clusters to small clusters and move forward.