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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Friday Morning Open Thread: Minimum Wage vs. Pandemic Relief?

Friday Morning Open Thread: Minimum Wage vs. Pandemic Relief?

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Accursed Friday news dump, per the Washington Post:

… Democrats had been anxiously awaiting the decision, but their next steps are not clear. Liberals are pressuring Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) to challenge the ruling on the Senate floor, although the White House has dismissed that idea.

Schumer released a brief statement Thursday night vowing to fight on, without saying how…

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement that Biden was “disappointed in this outcome” but “respects the parliamentarian’s decision and the Senate’s process.”

“He will work with leaders in Congress to determine the best path forward, because no one in this country should work full time and live in poverty,” Psaki said. “He urges Congress to move quickly to pass the American Rescue Plan.”

The ruling was made by Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, a nonpartisan official who is little known outside Washington but might command tremendous influence over certain elements of Biden’s agenda. Her ruling pertains only to the Senate, where the legislation will move forward under complex rules that prohibit certain items that don’t have a particular effect on the budget. MacDonough determined that, as written, the minimum-wage increase did not pass that test — an outcome that had been predicted by a number of Democrats, including Biden himself.

Despite her ruling, the House is preparing to vote Friday to pass the stimulus relief package with the $15 minimum wage included and send it to the Senate, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in a statement Thursday…

Pelosi’s decision to pass the $1.9 trillion relief bill with the minimum-wage language intact means Schumer will face a potentially consequential decision. He could take out the minimum-wage language before putting the bill on the Senate floor, or try to keep it in the bill — whether by challenging the parliamentarian’s ruling or trying to rewrite the provision in such a way that it could pass muster under the Senate’s complicated rules…

… White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain has publicly ruled out trying to overrule the parliamentarian, and Democrats probably would not command the necessary votes to succeed anyway, since at least one Senate Democrat — Joe Manchin III (W.Va.) — has said he would not vote to overrule the parliamentarian…

Several liberal Democrats said Thursday they need to do whatever it takes to raise the minimum wage — including eliminating the filibuster, the 60-vote rule that gives the minority party enormous sway in the Senate. Manchin and Sinema have said publicly they oppose taking that step.

“We still need to pass the minimum wage, and if that means getting rid of the filibuster, so be it,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said.

Media Village Idiots gleeful over prospects of Dems in Disarray!; more cautious observers wonder if Repubs are the ones stepping on their own… agenda:

Needless to say, I place my trust in Nancy Pelosi. (Worse comes to worst — and there will be a lot of words said before the final legislation is sent to President Biden — we Democrats have gone on the record as supporting an essential economic upgrade.)

I do assume there will be some form of Recovery Act passed before mid-March, because either enough Repubs will realize they’re better off doing the right thing, or Manchin & Sinema will decide that posturing as ‘centrists’ for their voters won’t be enough to save them come the next primaries.

Reader Interactions

169Comments

  3. 3.

    Baud

    Allen’s “walk the plank” rhetorical is overblown.  However the real risk is that some small business owners get upset at Dems while regular voters don’t give Dems any credit because the Senate blocks the increase.  Still, I think keeping it in is the right thing to do.

  4. 4.

    satby

    @Baud: However the real risk is that some small business owners get upset at Dems while regular voters don’t give Dems any credit because the Senate blocks the increase.

    It’s like you’re Kreskin or something.

  8. 8.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    I’ve been thinking about the argument that the minimum wage should be lower in some areas because the cost of living is lower there. First, there’s no place where the current minimum wage is a living wage.

    But beyond that, if you live in a low wage area, it’s hard to get out. Even if you save the same percentage of your earnings, it’s less money. Your house is worth less. You’re kind of trapped.

  9. 9.

    Baud

    Even without the minimum wage, the Recovery Act is incredibly progressive.  Take the win and continue the fight.

  13. 13.

    SP123

    Maybe I don’t understand the process, but it seems like there are easy mechanisms to make it budget related. For example, any employer paying someone less than $15/hr has to pay a a tax equal to how much less they’re paying, and any employee making less than $15/hr gets a payroll tax credit to bump them to $15. It’s stupid it has to be done that way due to archaic rules, but there’s no doubt that would be considered tax and budget related. The real problem I think is that there are a couple Dem Senators who don’t actually want $15 to pass (Manchin has said he’d vote for $11.)

  14. 14.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    Rather than a uniform flat increase, I wonder if there’s some way to construct increases regionally by tying them to the area’s cost of living increases or something similar?

  15. 15.

    Baud

    @SP123:

    There will be a second reconciliation bill later this year.  They can try to work something out for that one if there’s not enough time for this one to do the workarounds.

  17. 17.

    Betty Cracker

    @SP123: I think Balloon Juice favorite Bernie Sanders is exploring an option like that (no link because Fox News):

    “In the coming days, I will be working with my colleagues in the Senate to move forward with an amendment to take tax deductions away from large, profitable corporations that don’t pay workers at least $15 an hour and to provide small businesses with the incentives they need to raise wages,”’ Sanders said in a statement. “That amendment must be included in this reconciliation bill.”

  18. 18.

    Geminid

    @Baud: A  House passed minimum wage increase can’t but be so risky. The House passed one last year which of couse never made it to the Senate floor. Democrats did lose around a dozen seats last November, but I doubt that the minimum wage was the reason. There just was a trump bump that knocked out freshmen in purple districts, and red district survivor Colin Peterson (MN).

    I think one Democratic casualty, Xochitl Torres-Small (NM-2), actually voted against the increase. She was holding out for regional differentials in minimum wage. Her southern New Mexico district is relatively low-income, and she feared job losses.

  19. 19.

    Baud

    Harris gets a crash course on foreign policy
    ….
    Harris spent the bulk of her career as a prosecutor, rising to become California’s attorney general. While she served on the Intelligence Committee during her four years in the U.S. Senate, foreign affairs was not a major policy focus either during her time in Washington or her presidential campaign.

    Biden wants Harris to catch up and has urged her to engage with foreign leaders directly and develop her own rapport with key U.S. partners. Another, more strategic reason for the encouragement: as the heir apparent to the Democratic Party—especially if Biden, who is 78 years old, doesn’t run for re-election—Harris needs to bulk up her foreign policy expertise, and fast.

  20. 20.

    PenandKey

    @debbie: that just runs right into Dorothy’s observation about perpetually trapping already low paid community members into their community. Such a move would also very likely accelerate the decline and collapse of small towns and rural communities simply because a larger chunk of their kids will see the writing on the wall and get out before they get likewise tied down and trapped there.  

  22. 22.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: New Mexico will redistrict this year. I’m hoping Democrats in the “Roundhouse” figure out a way to add some Democratic precincts to the 2nd Congressional District, and Xochitl Torres-Small wins a third match with Republican Yvette Harrel in 2022.

    Some states like Virginia and Colorado, which will gain a seat, will redistrict by independent commission. I am hoping that Democrats in States like New Mexico, and New York and Illionois which will lose seats, make the most of their opportunity to knock out Republican conressmen and woman when they redistrict later this year. Republicans in red states will certainly make the most of theirs

  23. 23.

    debbie

    @PenandKey:

    A flat increase is arbitrary and could hurt small business owners in rural areas. Knocking down one segment to help another doesn’t improve the overall economy.

  24. 24.

    Betty Cracker

    @Baud: That’s terrific. I’ve noted with approval that Harris is highly involved in domestic policy and am pleased to learn she’s going to be out front on international issues too.

  26. 26.

    Betty Cracker

    @debbie: I get that, but on the other hand, businesses large and small have relied on taxpayers to subsidize their unsustainable business model.  Federal and state programs make it possible for businesses to pay employees artificially low wages by picking up the slack on food and housing. Maybe it’s time to shift the price supports the other way.

  28. 28.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    Yes, it is. One of my nieces works for tips only, while her boss drives four cars. That’s the small business owner who needs to be required to be fairer. But most other small business owners are already struggling. Enforcing a flat $15 per hour wage will hurt them more than help their workers.

  29. 29.

    debbie

    @Betty Cracker:

    I don’t know about other areas, but here, they shower businesses with TIFs and rebates. Awarding those should require small businesses to support wage increases, etc.

  30. 30.

    Immanentize

    @debbie: First, this isn’t a flat increase, it is fazed in over years.  Everyone is talking like 15/hr starts tomorrow.  That framing is what allows guys like Manchin oppose it.  It will give a raise to 27 million people and lift 1 million out of poverty.  By then, the poverty level wage will probably be over 20 dollars — so 15 will still be way behind and inadequate.

    Or, we could do what China does, declare the poverty level is at 630 dollars a year, and then announce we have eliminated poverty!

    If Walmart can do it — (almost) everyone can.  And if you can’t make it paying 15 bucks, and wage slavery is also not a continuing option?  I recommend a UBI if we care about those few businesses staying open.

  33. 33.

    rikyrah

    Da phuq 😡😡

    AZ have offered the vaccine from plants in India but the EU has told AZ it will only accept the vaccine if its made in the EU or in the UK… Speaks volumes.EU is set to receive 90 MILLION fewer AstraZeneca jabs than expected in latest blow… https://t.co/wYFWdEavUj— Nigella (Gab🐸 @ Nigella – Parler @ Nigella) (@nigella_i5e) February 24, 2021

  34. 34.

    Betty Cracker

    @Immanentize: Lord knows I’m no expert on economics, but I believe we have test cases right here in the U.S. that demonstrate what happens when a state hikes the minimum wage. A state like Washington has lots of rural areas too, and AFAIK, there was no massive economic collapse in rural areas when they raised the wage. Seems like folks could study those examples and figure out how to make the transition in a rational way.

  35. 35.

    Starfish

    @debbie: The big picture is that friends are asking me if I want lessons of some sort for very little money because they are poor, and Senators care more about business owners than them.

  36. 36.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Geminid: My perception is that Xochitl unfortunately helped herself out of a seat by running as Republican-Lite. (I love guns! Fracking is great!) The trap in that approach is that it won’t bring in Republicans who can get the real mouth-breathing deal in Herrell and it doesn’t motivate Democrats or liberal-leaning independents. That wasn’t the only factor in her loss, but I don’t think it helped.

  38. 38.

    Geminid

    @O. Felix Culpa: But do you think Democrats and liberal leaning independents in the NM 2nd sat the election out? There was high turnout everywhere else. And Torres-Small voted with her caucus almost all the time.

  39. 39.

    rikyrah

    Every time Bernie gets a wild hair up his ass over legislation, all it does is make shit take longer just so he gets the opportunity to soapbox.He never bothers to try to convince his colleagues to vote his way.He doesn't compromise at all.I'm so fucking tired of this shit.— To Be Openly Black is a Revolutionary Act (@RealKHiveQueenB) February 26, 2021

  40. 40.

    p.a.

    The CBO has said a $15 min will raise 20-some million out if poverty while costing 1.5 M  jobs.  I’m assuming the job loss is taking into account the extra spending potential of the $15 income bump.

  44. 44.

    Baud

    @Immanentize:

    Everyone is talking like 15/hr starts tomorrow.  That framing is what allows guys like Manchin oppose it.

    That framing probably more the fault of the proponents.  It had its vantages in galvanizing support, but you’ve identified how it can be misinterpreted.

  50. 50.

    Soprano2

    Several years ago people in Missouri voted for a proposition to raise the minimum wage from $7.75 to $12.00 over five years. It will be $12 by 2023. It also requires employers to pay tipped employees half of the state minimum. If people in a state like Missouri are for that, I don’t see how a federal increase isn’t seen as popular. As we all know, reporters suffer from having the viewpoint that anything Republicans are for is “normal and popular”, and anything Democrats are for is “exotic and unpopular”, even though for the most part this isn’t close to being true.

    I heard a report this morning on Morning Edition saying that the parliamentarian had ruled that the minimum wage increase couldn’t be in the COVID relief bill, rather than saying that it can’t be in the bill if they want to avoid a filibuster. It’s no wonder people have no idea how government actually works, reporters don’t do a good job of explaining this stuff to people.

  55. 55.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Geminid:  Perhaps not, but she won by a mere 2700 votes in 2018. She was never going to get Republican support in this environment, so she might as well have run as a Democrat and differentiated herself from the opposition. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Xochitl, recruited volunteers for her reelection effort, and hope she runs again, but I think that her messaging campaign was a strategic mistake.

    ETA: Another, perhaps more significant, factor in her loss was the pandemic. Dems didn’t have in-person events or go door-knocking in NM because of the coronavirus. Xochitl has such a positive, upbeat, girl-next-door persona, I think she would have done much better if she could have met more people in person. The attacks ads literally darkened her visage and made her seem oh-so-scary. The real Xochitl is quite the opposite and incredibly charming.

  57. 57.

    Gin & Tonic

    @PenandKey:

    Such a move would also very likely accelerate the decline and collapse of small towns and rural communities

    Are you presenting this as a positive or a negative effect?

  58. 58.

    Soprano2

    Also, I see that the Biden administration has dropped some bombs on Iranian-backed rebels in Syria. I don’t even have to wonder if the cable news pundits are all swooning at how “presidential” he is now – I’m sure they’ve already figured out a way to criticize him doing it. LOL

  60. 60.

    ItinerantPedant

    If there is ANYONE in the Senate, and anyone with two dendrites to rub together in the House who is actually surprised by the Parliamentarian’s ruling they need to resign now. This was the most obvious outcome in the history of the country.

    It irritates me when someone as smart as Senator Warren says what she said…it’s disingenuous for her to imply that somehow the filibuster is in play with Manchin and Sinema as votes 49 and 50, and it’s actively INSULTING that she (and others) think I’m stupid enough to not see that.

  62. 62.

    PaulWartenberg

    The minimum wage needs to go up, but if that debate is going to slow everything down then YES separate it from the COVID relief bill and get the relief bill done NOW.

    THEN make the next fight in Congress about the minimum wage, highlight how NOBODY CAN FCKING LIVE ON 7.95 AN HOUR, how NOBODY CAN FCKING LIVE ON 12.95 AN HOUR FOR GOD’S SAKE, and force the GOP to go on the record opposing a popular 15.00 an Hour minimum wage hike. CHRIST, we PASSED a 15.00 Wage Amendment here in Red Florida just last year. PEOPLE KNOW THEY NEED IT.

  64. 64.

    Geminid

    @Betty Cracker: I think mister mix was Bernie-favorable last year. But I personally have no problem with a “big tent” policy for front pagers. Even if I did, as a relative newcomer I take this blog as I find it.

  67. 67.

    Cameron

    @Soprano2: Well, the dudes what got bombed kind of led with their chins – they loudly bragged about being the source of the Erbil rocket attack.  I don’t think Biden had a lot of other options.

  68. 68.

    Jeffro

    Hmmm…I see that “Golden Calf” is trending on Twitter, I wonder why that…oh…oh my.

    Really, CPAC?  NONE of y’all realized the easy layup analogy here?

    And here I thought 2021 was going to have much better writing than 2020.

  71. 71.

    Geminid

    @Soprano2: Reporting in Israeli newspapers like the Jerusalem Post notes that the retaliatory bombing was in Syria, not Iraq, which might have put the Iraqi government in an invidious position as it tries to respond to these rogue rocket attacks.

    Israel has been carrying out an bombing campaign against Iranian assets in Syria for years. It’s a slow week if they do not hit at least one target. Russia is frenemies with both Israel and Iran, and is trying to keep a lid on this undeclared war now that Russian ally Assad has weathered the Syrian civil war.

  72. 72.

    PST

    @Betty Cracker:

    Lord knows I’m no expert on economics, but I believe we have test cases right here in the U.S. that demonstrate what happens when a state hikes the minimum wage. A state like Washington has lots of rural areas too, and AFAIK, there was no massive economic collapse in rural areas when they raised the wage.

    That gets to the root of the matter, which is that the likely effect of a particular increase in the minimum wage needs to be thought about empirically, not theoretically. Almost everyone, no matter how conservative, will concede that there should be some minimum wage, and almost everyone, no matter how liberal, will concede that there is some upper limit beyond which the harm in job losses would outweigh benefits. The issue is what effect will $15 have on jobs, and what evidence we have points to not much. The local employer may say that he can’t afford to increase wages from $10, say, to $15 because he would have to raise prices and would lose business, but he isn’t taking into account that all his competitors will have to raise prices as well and he will remain competitive. The small general increase in prices will be felt by consumers generally, and the money spent will go straight into the pockets of the least prosperous of our neighbors, enabling them to spend more. Looked at from a macro perspective, increasing the minimum wage is an income transfer to those with the highest marginal propensity to spend. Does this effect outweigh any theoretical job losses due to cutting employees? At $15, the evidence suggests no. We have, after all, been at $15 in real terms in the past (if my memory is correct).

  73. 73.

    jonas

    I can’t figure out what Manchin in particular is thinking on this. If there’s a state anywhere in the country that could benefit from a higher minimum wage, you’d think it would be WV. Are his phone lines being jammed with calls from people telling him “No, please. I’m really happy making $8/hr. Please don’t raise it, sir!”?

  74. 74.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Jeffro:

    Hmmm…I see that “Golden Calf” is trending on Twitter, I wonder why that…oh…oh my.

    Really, CPAC?  NONE of y’all realized the easy layup analogy here?

    “Fat orange fascist shitstain” trending would be more accurate.

    The “highlights” should be interesting nauseating.

  76. 76.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Betty Cracker: Mole?  M^2 has at least one post everyday about how the Ds are failing “progressives” which is the eternal mantra of the Socialist Jesus and his many disciples

    You and JGC are somewhat favorably disposed towards Fugly Artisanal Mittens.

  78. 78.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Baud: I think it was 15 and hour and nothing else, it would be risky. But it’s part of a program of reforms to help out the public.  The Republicans opposing it just adds to the narrative that the Dems are here to help and the Repugs want you to just die already.

  79. 79.

    Betty Cracker

    @Geminid: I think he was for Sanders in the 2016 primary, but he was definitely for Warren in the 2020. I distinctly remember discussing it with him. AFAIK, no one who posts on the front page was a Sanders supporter in 2020.

  80. 80.

    Jeffro

    @PST: $15 strikes me as a variation on “let’s plant our flag on some big, round number because we are humans and we love big round numbers”.  (Why not $14.30?  Why not $17.15?)  It also strikes me as something that should vary by county/metro/area/state or something.  Lord knows the cost of living varies tremendously across this great nation of ours…

    Is it that hard to base it on average rent in a given area, or rent + food or something, and then divide by 40 hours/week or 160 hours/month?

    And then have it adjust each year, automatically.  Problem solved, next case.

  81. 81.

    Geminid

    @O. Felix Culpa: Political scientist Rachel Bitecofer warned last September that Democrats were making a mistake to forsake door to door campaigning, leaving the field to the less scrupulous Republicans. Bitecofer also agrees with you that Democratic messaging should be more aggressive and partisan. “Conversion strategies” yield little result, she says. Turnout is key.

    But I read the headline of an article dated last November 4 that said Democrats plan to redraw the NM 2nd. So if Torres-Small decides to take another shot, the District’s Democrats will get a chance in a primary to decide if she who they want.

    I notice that between Michelle Lujan-Griffen and Ben Ray Lujan moving up to Governor and Senator, respectively, Deb Haaland is now the senior member of New Mexico’s House delegation. And she will move on soon, it seems. A lot of political change recently in the Land of Enchantment.

  82. 82.

    jonas

    @PST: ​
      The local employer may say that he can’t afford to increase wages from $10, say, to $15 because he would have to raise prices and would lose business, but he isn’t taking into account that all his competitors will have to raise prices as well and he will remain competitive.

    I think broadly speaking, that’s true. But it depends on the kind of business and how elastic the demand for it is. Take small restaurants. People will go out for breakfast once or twice a week if they can get an eggs-n-bacon special and cup of coffee for under $10. If that goes up to $12, people won’t suddenly start shopping around for cheaper competitors; they’ll probably just stop going out to eat all together, particularly if they’re on a fixed income.

    There are a lot of businesses like this where people will pay for them as long as they’re super cheap, but will either stop or seek out alternatives if they get more expensive. E.g. house cleaning and home health aides, lawn care, etc.

  83. 83.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @SP123: We have that already, no one pays minimum wage in a urban area. It’s the hickies who want it frozen because they think that makes their Hillbilly Hollows with their crappy infrastructure, lack of workers, excessive inbreeding and no higher education competitive with those Coastal Elites.

  84. 84.

    Soprano2

    @Geminid: Yeah, but my point was how much the news shows slobbered all over Trump when he launched a few missiles at Syria. The contrast is not surprising at all to me.

  85. 85.

    gene108

    @schrodingers_cat:

    anyone really surprised, Europe’s colonizer ways are alive and well.

    A lot of liberals in the USA are very unfamiliar with how Europe treated its colonies. They are impressed with universal healthcare, paid sick leave, etc., but they really do not grasp how much of that being possible is from transferring wealth from its colonies.

    Also, the EU has a very protectionist side setting up rules that favor member countries over nonmembers

  86. 86.

    NotMax

    Be it noted that both seasons of the original French series The Returned now on Prime. Spooky suspense, with heaping helpings of style. One of the first, possibly the first, streaming episodic programs your truly was inclined to binge back when it was on Netflix.

    Not to be in any way confused with the execrable American remake attempt.

  87. 87.

    PST

    @jonas: I certainly agree that it depends. For example, that increase in the cost of breakfast from $10 to $12 depends a lot on how much of the cost of breakfast is labor, something I admit I don’t know. I do worry that the CBO says that the ultimate effect will be to reduce employment by 1.4 million jobs, but I wonder about that because the CBO incorporated an assumption that the increase in the minimum wage would not change nominal GDP. That sounds to like it assumed way the stimulus that would result from increasing the income of the poorest Americans. It did conclude that the effect on income would be positive for the lowest quintile and negative for the highest quintile, which is fine with me, but which shows who the opposition is catering to.

  88. 88.

    Parfigliano

    @O. Felix Culpa: I hope the Dems down here in NM-2 redistrict Herrell out.  If it was the other way around the GOP wouldnt think twice about doing it with a smile.  Added bonus in listening to the GOP howl.

  89. 89.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Here in the hills and hollers both Walmart and MickyD’s pay $10 or more. I don’t feel like I am sticking my neck out very far when I say the same is true for 90% of the small businesses out here. The 10% or so that refuse to raise their wages aren’t trying to hire/keep employees.

  91. 91.

    gene108

    @O. Felix Culpa:

    Perhaps not, but she won by a mere 2700 votes in 2018.

    Of the 40 House seats picked up in 2018, a bunch were from R+ districts. I expected those districts to revert to electing Republicans, but I thought it would be in 2022, and not 2020.

    We really need to increase the size of the House. Fighting over control of rural, and semi-rural districts to maintain Democratic control of the House is not going to help us. Raise the size, and make suburban districts and urban districts the contested seats for control of the House, where Democrats do well.

  92. 92.

    Soprano2

    @PST:  What I can tell you from personal experience is that yes, the raise in the wage does have a small effect, but what’s more likely to make the price of the breakfast go up is when the price of bacon or eggs go up.

  93. 93.

    Jeffro

    way OT but if anyone (especially those of a philosophical bent) needs a good laugh this morning, there’s a Tweet thread up by Camille Corbett (@TheWittyGirl) that is killer…the one about her “ex getting engaged to the girl who stripped ‘platonically’ at his birthday party”…

    Her follow-up tweet, and the replies, are pure comedy gold.  I’d explain more but I just Kant… =)

  94. 94.

    zhena gogolia

    Sigh. No internet at home. And I have to be at the office until 2:30. I tried calling Frontier from the office, and they said I had to be at home, plus there’s a one-hour wait time. I doubt we’ll get it back all weekend.

    Our last flimsy lifeline, gone.

  95. 95.

    germy

    Maybe if Neera Tanden had gotten banned by Twitter for spreading violent and seditious lies Republican senators would be currying favor with her instead of blocking her nomination.

    — Dan Rather (@DanRather) February 24, 2021

  97. 97.

    Brachiator

    @jonas:

    I think broadly speaking, that’s true. But it depends on the kind of business and how elastic the demand for it is. Take small restaurants. People will go out for breakfast once or twice a week if they can get an eggs-n-bacon special and cup of coffee for under $10. If that goes up to $12, people won’t suddenly start shopping around for cheaper competitors; they’ll probably just stop going out to eat all together, particularly if they’re on a fixed income.

    This is very true. This is also why many fast food places have low price value meals, especially for breakfast items.

    Some businesses will reduce staff, shift to more part time workers, hire family or go under if the minimum wage is increased. Others will automate more where they can.

    In the past, in California and other states, some businesses, especially in restaurants and construction, also used undocumented workers. You pay lower wages and also avoid paying payroll taxes.

    There may also be an increase in reclassifying employees as independent contractors.

    Not too long ago, a commenter noted, I think, that there was some regional variation in the minimum wage in Washington state. This would be difficult to include in any federal legislation.

    The pandemic economy actually provides some argument for increasing the minimum wage. Many remote workers have seen their wages stabilize or even rise, while workers who cannot work at home have also seen more job losses and declining wages. The government should try to redress this imbalance.

    Coming out of the pandemic, increased consumer demand may make it easier for business to hire people at a higher minimum wage. Job credits for small business owners should also be considered.

  100. 100.

    zhena gogolia

    @NotMax:

    I can’t believe how addicted I am! I’m chairing panels on a conference today and Sunday, and thank God I can come to my office to do it.

  101. 101.

    Geminid

    @gene108: A big story of the 2020 Congressional election was how many of the 41 seats flipped in 2018 were held: two in Texas (Fletcher and Allred), three in Virginia (Wexton Spanberger, and Luria) were some, and these seats were won on Republican-drawn maps. Reapportionment and redistricting will perhaps yield a net of 4-8 seats for Republicans, but I still like our chances to hold the House in 2022. We might even have net gain. Democrats seem very united and motivated, while Republicans have real internal conflicts that will not be resolved  by the next election.

    As for expanding the House, that might happen some day. In the meantime, we’ll have to run the machine as we find it, to paraphrase Abraham Lincoln.

  102. 102.

    kindness

    Wasn’t there a point in the last several years where Republicans didn’t like the rulings of Senate Parlimentarians and sacked one and went out Parlimentarian shopping till they found an amendable one? I think they did. It’s how they passed Trump’s tax cut bill in 2017, isn’t it?

  106. 106.

    Cameron

    I guess Vice President Harris could ignore the parliamentarian and stick with the House version, but that would offend the Sage of Coal Country and he might deep-six the whole package.

  107. 107.

    Hoppie

    @debbie: Agree that “one size fits nobody” can be a problem, but complexity invites K street gaming the rules. I don’t think there’s a pure solution.

  108. 108.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @schrodingers_cat: ​
      The poll on your blog? How scientific was it? But, yes, the pro-Warren position was pretty strong here. I, as a Harris then Biden supporter, certainly noticed it. My point was that calling Sanders a blog favorite seemed off when Warren had been the clear preference and Sanders supporters got jumped on with both feet. Are you just opposed to left of center Dems?

  109. 109.

    Betty Cracker

    @Geminid: I recently read a summary of the FL Dems’ analysis of what went wrong in 2020, and they concluded lack of in-person GOTV hurt them badly too. It was the responsible thing to do, IMO, but no doubt that had an effect.

    I suspect a lot of folks assumed hatred of Trump would be a turnout machine in its own right (I certainly did), and it was! But lots of us didn’t see Trump substantially increasing his vote share over 2016 after such a disastrous four years.

    Someone here also made the point that anti-lockdown sentiment helped Trump, and I think there’s some truth to that as well. The campaign environment will be very different in 2022, dog willing!

  110. 110.

    david

    @Baud: Biden is telling everyone there will be a 47th POTUS before the Nov ’24 elections, if anybody is willing to listen to him.

  111. 111.

    burnspbesq

    Dem strategy for the midterms: (1) pass voting rights legislation with real teeth; (2) litigate aggressively to enforce the new law; (3) run against Trump.

  112. 112.

    Subsole

    @rikyrah: Call Manchin and Sinema.

    Ask how many republicans they’ve rallied to the cause.

    They wanna sacrifice our agenda and well-being so they can be the dealmaking overlords of the senate kumbaya caucus, great.

    Let’s see some results.

    If they wanna pin their hopes on GOP sanity, let’s see how many sane Q-TP members they deliver.

  114. 114.

    catclub

    @Betty Cracker: ​
     

    lots of us didn’t see Trump substantially increasing his vote share over 2016 after such a disastrous four years.

    because we don’t watch Fox news where the last 4 years had been the greatest, with most presidential achievements evar.

    Trump is clearly right when he says “If you just tell people, they will believe you”

  115. 115.

    Geminid

    @Omnes Omnibus: Oh yes. But she argued that Democrats had better not be so scrupulous, especially when the Republicans were not. I know that in the Georgia Senate runoffs Democrats did door to door work. My Atlanta friend walked a number of neighborhoods until he tripped over a curb and broke his wrist.

    Back in September, Bitecofer noted that some state organizations were “going rogue” and reinstating door-to-door voter outreach. She said that the Wisconsin Democratic party was one of these.

    In the event, beating trump was the most consequential pandemic mitigation action possible, and we almost did not pull it off.

  116. 116.

    Hoppie

    @Betty Cracker: Back when I was involved with running data for a small county (20,000 or so) housing program, we noticed that all the non-management Walmart employees had Section 8 housing subsidies.  Part of Sam Walton destroying small local retail was using government programs to sustain his “discounts”.

  120. 120.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @debbie:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    You’re kind of trapped.

    And that’s how the GQP likes it.

    I recently read August Wilson’s “Gem of the Ocean”, which is set in 1904. I’m sure many of us know of us know about the Great Migration of African Americans from south to north. What I learned from Wilson was that angry whites were blocking the migration, trying to keep their captive labor force captive.

    This has always been a part of the system.

  121. 121.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Omnes Omnibus: It was on Twitter. It was a snapshot of the blog commenter sentiment who are also on Twitter, never claimed it was a scientific poll. I have to dig it up but EW got most votes. This was around Super Tuesday time so Harris had dropped out by then.

    I had a similar evolution as you, was favorable towards Harris and ended up voting for Biden on Super Tuesday.

    I am against the cult of BS which EW was trying to woo. I am not against left of center economics or policies.  Both Harris and NP are pretty progressive but are labeled as centrist because they don’t toe the BS line.

    EW was the clear blog favorite during the primaries but many BJers are still favorably disposed towards BS. He is a demagogue and his cult is toxic. I can’t overlook that even if he does have some policies that I might be able to support.

  123. 123.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    @Brachiator: The thoughts I have on this are probably something economists have long worked through, but some of those jobs seem to me to be the equivalent of sweat shops. They’re tolerable only because the government subsidizes the workers.

    So maybe those jobs should go away. Maybe we shouldn’t be supporting exploitation. But maybe work is a good thing, and it’s good if society can provide jobs and then add on a decent living.

  124. 124.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @germy: ​
     

    Scary new thing I read recently is that many of the rioters had arms in their vehicles that they were going to use in the attack. But because they didn’t have time to go back for the weapons once they were all riled up and pounding on the doors.

    The death toll could have been much, much higher.

  126. 126.

    Betty Cracker

    @germy: Would that be Rep. Mary Miller of “Oops, I shouldn’t have referenced Hitler’s ‘co-opt the youth’ policy in a positive way — mein bad!” fame?

  127. 127.

    Geminid

    @Hoppie: If there was disclosure of who owned those Section 8, properties, we would know if the Walton family cashed in on them. I heard that Sean Hannity was getting in on the Section 8 real estate boondoggle too. I’m hoping that a HUD audit will shake out instances of favoritism and fraud under Dr. Carson’s mismanagement.

  128. 128.

    TheOBP

    So, during the Great Texas Power Outage of 2021, stuck with no power and inside temps that at one point dropped to 37, huddled in my sleeping bag, in severe internet withdrawal, but luckily with an excellent book, I started smelling toast. My two thoughts were “uh oh, I have heard what that can mean, but I don’t think I’m having a stroke” and “dang, which of my neighbors somehow has power for their toaster?” Then I happened to look out the window shortly thereafter, and, hand on my heart I am not making this up, the dumpster by my building was on fire. Austin Fire Department were there and everything. Amusingly, they were shoveling snow into it.

    So I’m not sure what made me think of dumpster fires, but we sure could do with one less legislative body.

  131. 131.

    Fair EconomistI

    @Geminid: I don’t know why people think expanding the House will help. Smaller districts exacerbate geographic self-gerrymandering. That’s why statehouse districts are usually even more gerrymandered than House districts. A larger House will have a slightly *worse* partisan balance, all other things equal.

    Some of it seems to be misinterpreting the 1930s redistricting. There was a huge liberalization from that, but it wasn’t because there were more districts, it was because there had been a massive urbanization over the past 20 years, and since the 1920 census was never used for redistricting (because conservatives wanted to suppress the urban vote) there were 20 years of demographic shifts packed into one census.

  133. 133.

    Cameron

    @burnspbesq: That sounds like an excellent plan.  Is there a way they can pass such a law without getting rid of the filibuster?  Maybe make Joe Manchin happy just by putting the filibuster in time-out?  Because if they could enact such a law, I think they’d breeze through the mid-term.

  135. 135.

    Soprano2

    @Geminid: It’s also true that they could have done door-to-door safely – wear a mask, knock on door, step back, and talk to the voter that way. Or, talk to them through the storm door.

  136. 136.

    Soprano2

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: One of the stories in Bradbury’s “Martian Chronicles” was about a small town in the South where all the black residents pooled their money and bought a rocket to go to Mars. As the people were walking down the street toward the rocket, all the white people in the town were outside, trying to persuade the black people not to leave. It was written in 1948.

  137. 137.

    catclub

    @Cameron: Because if they could enact such a law, I think they’d breeze through the mid-term.

     

    How much electoral credit have the Dems gotten for passing Medicare, over the objections of the GOP, from Seniors? My guess is zero or negative.  likewise is possible for passing a minimum wage law.

  138. 138.

    Another Scott

    @Subsole:

    They wanna sacrifice our agenda and well-being so they can be the dealmaking overlords of the senate kumbaya caucus, great.

    Of course, when the Senate is closely divided, every senator can a dealmaking overlord if they want to be. Maybe they don’t wanna be? Maybe they just want to appear important and collect a salary without having to actually vote on things??

    One of the most powerful distortions the filibuster, reconciliation, and the Byrd rule work on politics is to reduce the Republicans’ visibility to zero. They don’t have to vote, they don’t have to say anything, and they don’t get mentioned in the statement from the White House. https://t.co/SCAyDtFD4R

    — southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) February 26, 2021

    +1

    That’s what gets me about this supposed reverence for the filibuster/cloture system. It’s not really about protecting the minority from a tyrannical majority. Moscow Mitch showed us that a tiny “majority” can force through whatever they want. It’s a relic from the bad old days, used to prevent progress and used to oppress too many Americans.

    It needs to go.

    The majority must be able to rule and pass legislation. Yeah, it sucks when the majority does bad things, but there’s no other system of government that’s better.

    When I’m king of the Senate, the votes are taken and the majority of those present win. I’d probably get rid of the Byrd rule and similar nonsense that prevents votes on legislation, also too. The US is no longer an agrarian society with the time to draw things out for years/decades before addressing important problems.

    Grr…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  139. 139.

    JCJ

    @Baud:

    Perhaps it could be done like Medicare payments.  Richard Mayhew (or maybe David Anderson) could probably explain it better than I can, but I believe Medicare does not pay the same per RVU (Relative Value Unit) in NYC as they do in Outer Bumfuck, Nebraska.

  140. 140.

    catclub

    @Another Scott: When I’m king of the Senate, the votes are taken and the majority of those present win. I’d probably get rid of the Byrd rule and similar nonsense that prevents votes on legislation, also too.

     

    Get rid of the filibuster and the Byrd rule no longer matters, since it was just the rules codifying which laws could bypass the filibuster in reconciliation.

  141. 141.

    Brachiator

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    So maybe those jobs should go away. Maybe we shouldn’t be supporting exploitation. But maybe work is a good thing, and it’s good if society can provide jobs and then add on a decent living.

    If jobs go away, businesses go away as well. Or you automate the hell out of everything, and have some sort of universal basic income where those with jobs pay for those without.

  142. 142.

    Another Scott

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: +1

    The minimum wage change will be so gradual that companies will be able to adjust.

    Does Amazon charge less in West Overshoe, NE than in Manhattan, NYC?  No.

    Yeah, there are often temporary sweet spots where wages are relatively high and the cost of living is relatively low.  Parts of NC were that way for a while.  That doesn’t mean that those areas should be treated differently by national policy.

    If wages are somehow temporarily “too high” in an area, the economy will adjust there.  The raw numbers of people affected by the minimum wage is large, but it is not a large percentage of the workforce.

    As usual, opposition seems to me to be reflexive knee-jerking and punching down.  Here’s hoping that Democrats push a good bill through – via whatever mechanism – soon.  And include the vital annual COLA so that we don’t have to go through these fights every 5-10+ years while people suffer.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  143. 143.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: I knew it had to be Politico before hovering over the link.

    Because foreign policy is the overwhelming factor in voters choosing.

    (groucho-roll-eyes.gif)

    Good for Biden in getting her out there.  Sensible leaders want their team to be able to give informed advice.  And learning by doing is an excellent thing.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  144. 144.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    Half of employees who make under $15 an hour get food stamps, Medicaid and welfare. This costs taxpayers $107 billion a year.

    So instead of paying a few cents more for a hamburger, you’re paying billions more to subsidize corporations paying literal poverty wages.

    — Dan Price (@DanPriceSeattle) February 25, 2021

  145. 145.

    Geminid

    @schrodingers_cat: Have you read Bitecofer’s longer work, or her twitter feed? I’ve seen people downrate her, but on the basis of what others write about her, not her actual work product.

  147. 147.

    Another Scott

    @Betty Cracker: There’s so much about economics that’s accepted as gospel without actual evidence.  Especially in the post-1970s USA.

    One of my favorite counterpoints (I should get the URL as a tattoo):

    48. I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    DECEMBER 22, 2015 AT 3:55 PM

    DeLong points us to a great paper on actual evidence that the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) is now a lot lower than it was supposed to be in the past. Like maybe < 2.5%.

    Equitable Growth:

    Must-Read: Jeffrey Sparshott: Where the Jobless Rate Is 2.3%, Here’s What Happened to Wages: “In Lincoln, Neb., average hourly earnings were stagnant until the unemployment rate crossed below 2.5% in the fall of 2014…

    …Then, wages took off. Since last October, they gained as much as 10.9% from a year earlier. The jobless rate in October: 2.3%…. ‘I continue to judge that there remains slack in the economy, margins of slack that are not reflected in the standard unemployment rate, and in particular I’ve pointed to the depressed level of labor-force participation, and also the somewhat abnormally high level of part-time employment,’ Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said this week…

    FYWP is giving me posting trouble – see the link for more.

    Whodathunkit – Supply and Demand actually works for Wages and Employment. Maybe, just maybe, the 7+ year stampede for the Fed to raise interest rates has little to do with inflation?? Hmm…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    Similarly, people have looked at the actual impact of an actual $15/hr minimum wage. It did nothing bad to employment or businesses.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  148. 148.

    Hoppie

    @Geminid: It was just that the business model was based on being able to pay very low wages since employees had government subsistence programs to fall back on. That and huge volume discounts from suppliers killed the Mom and Pops.
    I still call it “Evil-mart”.  You should not shop there.

  149. 149.

    lowtechcyclist

    @HalfAssedHomesteader:

    @SP123: I’d almost say yes if we were talking about $11 starting tomorrow. But $11 by 2025? F that.

    IIRC, the $15 was $9.50 right away, $11 in 2022, $12.50 in 2023, $14 in 2024, and $15 in 2025.

    If Manchin and Sinema would be OK with $9.50 now and $11 next year, full stop, I’d say take the deal and try to get the rest later.

  150. 150.

    Another Scott

    @Hoppie: +1

    There was a story on the BBC last night about the Costco head honcho testifying about them raising their minimum wage to $16 next week (“as opposed to Amazon and Target at $15 and Walmart at $11”).

    There are ways to make $15+ an hour work – right now – so getting there in 2-3 years is easy for companies that want to do so.

    They just don’t want to do so.

    Do companies scream that they’re going out of business when gas goes from $2.50 to $4.00 an hour a gallon?  Or when chicken or lettuce goes up 50%?  98.73% (number made up on the Internet so it must be accurate) of the griping is posturing.  The genuine hardship cases can be addressed in the legislation. And typically is. HR-582 (from 2019):

    SEC. 2. MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES.

    (a) In General.—Section 6(a)(1) of the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 (29 U.S.C. 206(a)(1)) is amended to read as follows:

    “(1) except as otherwise provided in this section, not less than—

    “(A) $8.40 an hour, beginning on the effective date under section 7 of the Raise the Wage Act;

    “(B) $9.50 an hour, beginning 1 year after such effective date;

    “(C) $10.60 an hour, beginning 2 years after such effective date;

    “(D) $11.70 an hour, beginning 3 years after such effective date;

    “(E) $12.80 an hour, beginning 4 years after such effective date;

    “(F) $13.90 an hour, beginning 5 years after such effective date;

    “(G) $15.00 an hour, beginning 6 years after such effective date; and

    “(H) beginning on the date that is 7 years after such effective date, and annually thereafter, the amount determined by the Secretary under subsection (h);”.

    […]

    The bill also mentions the under-20 “training wage” and tipped workers and other adjustments.

    This is a solvable problem, and I’m confident that the Democrats will find a way to make it work. I do hope, though, that the phase-in is faster than 6 years…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  153. 153.

    Geminid

    @schrodingers_cat: A good introduction to political scientist Rachel Bitecofer’s work is her article in the February 2020 New Republic, titled “Hate is on the Ballot.” It analyses the upcoming election with reference to Democratic experience in the 2018 midterms.

  154. 154.

    J R in WV

    @david: ​

    Biden is telling everyone there will be a 47th POTUS before the Nov ’24 elections, if anybody is willing to listen to him.

    I thought from the beginning that Biden intended to resign at some point during his term, once things looked like they were back on an even keel.

    So I think he will make VP Kamala Harris the first female president of African-Asian heritage, stop the plague with a sane public health policy, rebuild the economy, and retire as the best president since FDR.

    What a finale to his long and distinguished career! What a start to VP Kamala Harris’s career !! I imagine and hope the retirement will be carefully timed to allow Ms Harris to run for two terms.

    I am an eternal optimist, that’s what keeps me going late at night, I listen to soft classical music, paying V close attention to every note, which keeps me from dwelling of Trumpian nightmares. Plus the medication helps too…

  155. 155.

    Brachiator

    @Another Scott: ​
     

    ‘I continue to judge that there remains slack in the economy, margins of slack that are not reflected in the standard unemployment rate, and in particular I’ve pointed to the depressed level of labor-force participation, and also the somewhat abnormally high level of part-time employment,’ Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said this week…

    I wonder what this Yellen person is doing now? ;)

  156. 156.

    Another Scott

    @J R in WV: Short of some health crisis, Biden won’t resign.  He’s a traditionalist and always a middle-of-the-Democratic-consensus politician and has adjusted as the party and society moves.

    Of course he wants to help Harris, but he’s not going to set the precedent of resigning to help his heir-apparent.

    We’ll see.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  157. 157.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: I used to have a theory that Biden would use the occasion of his 2023 State of the Union address to announce that he would not seek a second term. But that was back when I thought he would win the 2020 election in a landslide, and bring in a 55-45 Senate and a larger House majority. The election was obviously much closer than that, and I think Biden is needed to head the ticket in 2024, health permitting.

  159. 159.

    Ruckus

    @Baud:

    That would be nice, my internet bill just went up 25%, this month. And the other provider that is here (yes we have 2 internet providers in this neighborhood – it’s nice to live in a county that has a larger population than 41 states) was the only provider in that part of the city that I did live in 2 yrs ago and are the worst assholes in the business, at least in my experience.

  160. 160.

    J R in WV

    @Ruckus:

    the worst assholes in the business, at least in my experience.

    Lemme take a guess… ComCast?

    Just a guess. Based upon complaints I’ve seen, never did any business with them personally.

  161. 161.

    Ruckus

    @PST:

    This is very, very correct.

    As a previous small business owner who paid well above the prevailing minimum wage (a high skilled employee business) I can easily say that a minimum wage is absolutely necessary but is used by many businesses to keep wages down and is a number that they consider to be a maximum wage, not minimum. It’s idiotic business not thinking. Look at Costco, just raised their minimum/starting wage to $16/hr. Look at Gravity Payments, the owner raised minimum starting pay to $70K per year, including his, and his business has grown and is prospering far better than it was. Some got 100% pay increases.

    You own a business you do that for 2 reasons. One, you like what you do, it’s what you know. Two, to make money. And you make money by doing the best work, whatever that work is. If you underpay, you don’t motivate, people come to work because they have to, they are pissed because of it, they are not working for your business, they are working for the paycheck. It almost never ends well. You want the majority of your workers to want to come to work, want them to think of what they are doing is valuable and important. You cheapen out on the pay, they never, ever think that. And if you sit in your office counting your money, driving a car they could never afford to even rent for a day, the fact is that you are rubbing it in that their labor is making you rich, and it is far, far worse.

  162. 162.

    Ruckus

    @J R in WV:

    Close but no cigar. And yes they are not the best run business in the world either. I believe their nickname was CrapCast. A, shall we say, well deserved bon mot.

  164. 164.

    J R in WV

    @Ruckus:

    OH well, can’t be right all the time. Hard to get used to being wrong, tho… when You’re right so much of the time!

    . .                       ;~)

    Hang in there  Ruckus, you’re one of my favorites here.

  165. 165.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    Regarding Bernie’s well intention backdoor plan to strip tax credit and benefits from large corporations who don’t pay a $15 minimum wage – what makes you think Manchin would vote for that?

    Manchin has never cared about mom and pop stores, he’s cares about fat cat contributors corporations who oppose it.

  166. 166.

    planetjanet

    @Jeffro: ​
     There is a much bigger gain here for us to keep a standard flat minimum rate. Yes, it can help rural, low cost of living areas more than urban areas. How many times have we heard here that we need to reach out to rural voters. The floor is being set to reduce the dependence on federal assistance. There is antipathy against people requiring handouts. Let them get the same standard of living without the handouts. It reduces the animosity towards the working poor. The requirement that it apply to all workers, including tipped workers is fantastic. Why can’t we imagine a future where everyone gets a decent wage and we don’t have tip everyone constantly. I can save on going out to dinner and servers have a more stable wage.

  168. 168.

    H-Bob

    @Hoppie: The counter to “we can’t have ‘one size fits all'” is “we need a level playing field”!

    Why do the states below the median GDP get to dictate national economic policy?  Maybe they should emulate what the more successful states are doing (particularly those without oil).

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