I want to talk about a local election that’s an interesting reflection of the change we’re seeing in blue states. It’s my New York State Senate seat, District 55. The Republican holding the seat is your average white man, Rich Funke, who retired rather than face the living hell of being in the minority now that the NY Senate is majority Democrat. Funke is anti-choice and a bit of a tool, but he’s popular due to being a former TV sportscaster. This is a very white (77%) suburban district and Funke won in 2018 52/48 against a good candidate, Jen Lunsford. In 2016 he ran unopposed, and in 2014 he soundly beat the Democratic incumbent, Ted O’Brien (59/41).
After Funke’s retirement, the Republican party ran a 39 year-old male, white lawyer and Army vet, and the Democrats ran Samra Brouk, a 34 year-old black woman whose previous qualifications include doing fundraising for a non-profit. I listened to a debate between the two and she’s razor sharp and quite progressive. Still, I was doubting that she could win a district that recently rejected a couple of good Democrats.
I was wrong: it was 52/48 Brouk, a result that I would not have predicted even in my more optimistic moments.
I would chalk this one up to suburban moms, just as I’ve chalked up other recent Democratic wins in my town, which was formerly a Republican stronghold for the town, county and state legislative offices (even though it consistently voted for Democratic federal and statewide candidates.) Trump has turned the letter “R” after someone’s name in any election into a poison pill, and those moms have a solid turnout operation.
I’ll also add that Brouk won despite some of the most ugly, racist TV ads I’ve seen in a long time. They showed pictures from some rioting in Rochester side-by-side with her face and basically insinuated that she supported the riots. These ads, like most New York Republican ratfucking, aired a few days before the election and have disappeared from sight.
Here’s a thread to report on local races in your area.
Honus
I see what you did with your nym. You really can’t make this stuff up. SNL couldn’t do better.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/the-other-four-seasons-trump-team-holds-press-conference-at-suburban-garden-centre
Fair Economist
My impression is that the Republicans use these last minute smears as a prime tactic, and it works pretty well for them.
dr. bloor
Hah. Hadn’t thought of or seen Funke in decades. Checking out his twitter page, I see he’s still taking his styling tips from Anton Chigurh.
mrmoshpotato
@Honus: Don’t forget about the nearby porn shop!
Honus
@mrmoshpotato: and crematorium. Also, watch the video of the employee
Jerzy Russian
Here in San Diego, we had two Democratic women on the ballot for Congress. The Democratic woman won.
Sad to say that the fuckhead Daryl Issa won in the next district over. You may remember the previous representative for that district: the fuckhead Duncan Hunter, Jr., a convicted felon.
WeimarGerman
Here in Orange County, CA, the smears worked. Katie Porter survived but a couple of her freshman colleagues did not. Harley Rouda, and Gil Cisneros lost by slim margins. Harley had USPS blue boxes removed outside his campaign HQ. In Irvine we ousted a QAnon quoting mayor for a Muslim American women Farrah Khan but sent a new Q to state assembly (Steve Choi)
Baud
Congrats, MM. Thanks for the good news.
Punchy
Dead Red KS (albeit in the purple burbs) bounced a exceedingly anti-mask, COVID is fake, bring on this civil war/boogaloo dumbshit white male (yup, redundant) and installed a moderate, friendly pro-mask woman for the county board. This was a big deal b/c schools needed the cover of a county mask-mandy in order to fend off the knuckledragger ‘rents claiming masks in schools were the work of the devil.
Hungry Joe
@Jerzy Russian: Yeah, it sucks hard that Issa won. That blood-red district is just east of mine, where Sara Jacobs — in other race you mentioned — will replace the retiring Susan Davis in a safe blue seat. Issa’s opponent never really had a chance — I mean, Duncan Hunter beat him in 2018, and that was after all of Hunter’s felonious crapola had come to light.
But there’s a thin silver lining: Issa already has a national reputation as a sleazy creep, whereas Carl De Maio, the sleazy creep he beat in the primary, would have gone to Washington as a fresh-faced up-and-comer.
WaterGirl
Sadly, our scumbag Rep here in Illinois, Rodney Davis, was elected again. And the IL fair tax referendum didn’t pass. 0 for 2.
But Biden won so we have the White House, and we have the House, and we may still get the Senate, so I am very much relieved to be able state all those things.
mrmoshpotato
@Honus: Well, crematoriums serve a needed purpose.
Betty Cracker
In our district, the Dems who ran against our worthless Republican federal and state reps all got wiped out as expected, in the neighborhood of 70% to 30%, as per usual. But I am enjoying all the blubbering about Trump’s loss.
Benw
Here in NY1 the smarmy Trump lovin white male incumbent Repub whomped the smart centrist woman Dem. 61/39
This is not a good place
Immanentize
MM — CONGRATS! Having grown up in the Southern Tier, I (like you?) thought the combination of black and woman would be the kids of death….
But I am learning that being smart and really knowing your district and it’s needs are what makes the difference. Tip O was right.
Suzanne
Spawn the Youngest is perfecting her “nap on lap” technique. Which is adorable, but I have to pee.
In my new district, Mike Doyle won again, like his 385th term. Just a couple of blocks south, Conor Lamb appears to have won re-election. In my former district, Greg Stanton won re-election, too.
I think Stanton is one to watch. Swingy district, former mayor of Phoenix, smart guy.
jeffreyw
Alas, the redneck end of Illinois got redder. Here’s the headline in the local newsrag:
Immanentize
@Betty Cracker:My great hope (and nothing more than hope at this point) is that all the totally committed Trump voters (cult members?) will be completely demoralized and will let off voting going forward. Sure, there will be pockets of violent idgits. But there will also be people who will retreat to their church. Or to Q fantasies. And, needlessly, many will die.
MomSense
@Honus:
The press conference was held in front of garage doors with trump posters next to a storefront with dildos and across from a crematorium. FSM really came through for us with that one.
scav
Ha! My county apparently had 90% of the ballots returned. And there must have been a solid bit of straight ticket voting: any race with preferred party noted went 70% to team D. Sorry, but it’s reassuring to know I don’t have to run screaming from the current neighbors (statistically speaking).
Immanentize
@Suzanne: Did you see the interesting analysis of Lamb’s run? He spent almost nothing (2,000 total) on social media. He seems like a good, straight shooter. But he needs to bring his game into the modern world.
natem
@Fair Economist:
A lot of AOC/Berners I am seeing on Twitter miss this important factor in these whole “messaging” debates. I mean, maybe people would love M4A and “Defund the Police” in the abstract, but branding someone a radical mob-loving communist who wants to take away your freedom is pretty effective.
WaterGirl
@Suzanne: Such great news about Conor Lamb.
Boy, baby on lap when you have to pee trumps even kitty on lap when you have to pee.
My strategy is to start squirming a little so the kitty says “you are doing it wrong” and gets up.
Not sure of the strategy with a baby.
WaterGirl
@jeffreyw: Ugh.
Peale
In my little suburban corner of NY state did not do so well. The incumbent Democrat in the assembly since 2013 lost by 18 points. Lost the state senate seat too yo the GOP, although TBH, our Outgoing state senator was One of the IDC Democrat’s who would vote with Republicans anyway. Won in Congress in an open seat, although we won it with about 25% less of the vote than we did in 2018. County as a whole flipped to Trump. I think I know the reason why. I’ll go with Cuomo’s coronavirus response might not be as admired by the locals.
AliceBlue
Here in Georgia, Carolyn Bourdeaux flipped an open House seat (GA 8) that had been held by the GOP for years.
Lucy McBath easily won reelection in GA 7–she barely scraped by in 2018.
Biden’s lead in GA is now over 10,000.
Yarrow
Do you have a link?
Another Scott
@Punchy: Thanks for the report. Baby steps are important!
Cheers,
Scott.
Immanentize
@AliceBlue: That’s what modern, coordinated efforts bring us.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@Peale:
I’m guessing you’re right. My guess is that it cuts the other way in the suburbs. The stupidity of Trump’s response and the anti-science moronic stances of the Trumpers, compared to the competence of Cuomos’ and his administration’s pro-science response, makes the soft Rs or ticket splitting blanks (independents) go D.
Suzanne
@WaterGirl: The strategy with a baby is to try little by little, inch by inch, to move them to a couch cushion, then go pee really fast and get back before they stir or roll over. I am successful roughly one of three attempts.
debbie
Democrats won every single race in my county (even Board of Ed members), but we’re surrounded by red-as-red-can-get counties.
debbie
@Suzanne:
Take her with you. //
WereBear
NY-22 once again burdened with the Paul Ryan protege, Elise Stefanik.
Now that I am no longer bound to non-partisanship due to work… since I don’t have any work! — I’m a steel-blue tiger.
I have to see what I can draw out of my pathetic 401k. And the investment firm better not get all voodoo economics on me.
Yarrow
Interesting info from south TX:
Immanentize
@Suzanne: One of three is real progress!
Villago Delenda Est
In Oregon’s 4th Congressional district, in spite of heavy Mercer and other dark money funding, challenger and MAGAt Alek Skarlatos failed to unseat Peter DeFazio, but it was close. Across the Cascades, the 2nd district remains red, with one of the go into hiding to prevent a quorum Rethugs winning the seat. Jeff Merkley kicked the snot out of the QAnon GOP nominee, and the Dems control all the statewide elective offices, so if Kate Brown gets snatched by OHJB for some job in DC, a Dem will succeed her, a lovely woman named Shemia Fagan.
There are some informative maps at the Oregon Secretary of State’s webpage that show you the very sharp rural/urban divide in Oregon.
Honus
@Yarrow: I’ve been trying to find it. I watched it this morning and I can’t seem to find it now. I couldn’t tell if it was a parody or not.
Hungry Joe
San Diego City Council is now seven Dems, one GOP. Dem mayor replaces GOP mayor. County Board of Supervisors flips to Dems for the first time since … since … ever, maybe.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@Yarrow:
Yeah, the Guardian had a piece on that if you’re interested.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/07/how-democrats-latino-voters-texas-border-towns
esme
Here in central MN we are about to elect our first DFL state Senator since 2006. On Tuesday, we all thought we’d lost, but by Wednesday, we had the lead. Confirmation won’t come until next week, but we are optimistic.
The win is made even sweeter by the fact that the Republicans appear to have tried a good old fashioned ratfuck, by paying someone to run in the district on the Legal Marijuana Now party. And it almost worked – he got almost 8% of the vote!
JoJo
In 2018 my Milwaukee suburb (Wauwatosa) flipped our district from red to blue in the first time since forever, by like 300 votes (for Robyn Vining). For this election, Republicans poured tons and tons of money into the race to defeat Vining-they considered it a critical race, since the state Republicans wanted a veto-proof majority in WI-redistricting will be coming up, after all, and Repugs really need those gerrymandered districts.
Vining won by 8 points this time. To put this in some more perspective, after 2010 the Republicans gerrymandered our district to the tune of being R+10. AND, the other district in Tosa (which is also partly in West Allis), held by a Republican bag of hair, also flipped, for a woman named Sara Rodrigues. There were some local fears about these races since we have had some 60+ BLM protests in Tosa since May, including a week in October with a curfew, massive National Guard presence, tear gas, boarded up shops in our business districts, some smashed windows-all the usual. Republicans worked hard to saddle Vining with images of riots etc. toward the end. And yet, total victory here. And all of our wards voted Biden, too. Tosa used to be a conservative enclave around here, so the change within the last 10 years from red to blue has been really heartening. Unfortunately, we weren’t able to flip the 5th CD-it is one of the most gerrymandered in the state, so unfortunately we are sending the odious Scott Fitzgerald. Hopefully we can derail further gerrymandering this time around.
Immanentize
@Yarrow: That is interesting. Starr is a pretty unique county — it’s in between McAllen and Loredo. Very rural with lots of “Colonias” which are corrupt off-code mini towns built without water or toilets that are home to thousands of poor people, mostly Mexican-American, many undocumented.
I will watch this closer. Thanks.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@WereBear:
That one was depressing but predictable.
Honus
@Yarrow: found it!
https://mobile.twitter.com/nanglish/status/1325242917519233024
Villago Delenda Est
@Honus: Oh, that is just brilliant.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Everybody should read this piece Tom Sullivan wrote over at Hullabalo:
https://digbysblog.net/2020/11/winning-is-persuasive/
He references a twitter blast by Dr Bitecofer which I’ll paste here because it’s also worth reading:
Roger Moore
@Hungry Joe:
It’s not a partisan story, but here in LA County, the board of supervisors is now only women. Since it’s the most powerful local government in the country- or at least the one with the largest population- this is a big deal.
Yarrow
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: @Immanentize:
I will be expecting Texas Republicans to work hard to court the Latino vote in Texas. They already are. George P. Bush (Jeb’s son) has been involved in a group doing just that. In fact, they had a hand in a canary-in-the-coal-mine result in a special election for a state Senate seat in 2018, just before the midterms.
Gallego (the Dem) had more money, but that didn’t make much difference. I think because of the overall blue wave in 2018 this election got memory holed but it has stuck in my head as a warning sign for Democrats in Texas re: Latinos.
Yarrow
@Honus: LOL. That’s hilarious.
Frankensteinbeck
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix:
That’s not a good article at all. Lots of ‘maybe it’s because of this thing’ with one pro-Trump person as their only source.
Another Scott
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: I like Rachel, but she goes overboard.
Yes, party ID is important.
But Democrats can win in deep red districts by appealing to local concerns. That’s probably what works best.
“Righty McTeabagger is in Moscow Mitch’s pocket and doesn’t care about us here in Teh Heartland. Our hospital is going to close, our roads are crumbing, and our kids are still living at home because they can’t get good jobs, but Righty only spends his time at hoidy-toidy fundraisers in DC. It’s time we vote him out!!”
That works, and is often the only thing that does.
Our party is a big tent, and our country is huge with vast differences. Imposing a one-size-fits-all mantra won’t work.
Cheers,
Scott.
gwangung
@Another Scott: Hm. I think that’s the primary tactic, but I think that is more winnable in pink or purple districts because the party identification is shallower.
Of course, the way to get a district less red is to emphasize the local concerns, so….
Jim, Foolish Literalist
everything I’ve seen about south Texas, most of what I’ve heard about non-crazy people who supported trump, basically comes back to Carville’s “It’s the economy, stupid”. Republicans have a long-standing advantage in public perception of ‘handling the economy’, in spite of the facts, and trump got boosts from the sugar-high of massive deficit-spending (tax cuts) in an already growing economy (thanks Obama) and (as hard as it is for me to grok even as I see and hear it over and over again) that silly game show where he pretended to be a global business macher when he fired Meatloaf for selling fewer umbrellas on a drizzly day on Madison Avenue than Joan and Melissa Rivers. I never saw the game show, but I gather that was the sort of “business challenges” a bunch of old has-beens pretended to be engaged in.
And a lot of people still see Covid restrictions as a bigger problem than Covid.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Another Scott:
Sullivan’s piece combined with some of the things AOC has said recently are the real points here. And both go from where I thought Bitecofer’s main point was: Democratic *electioneering* has to change.
Sullivan makes the very valid point that the Democratic Party *still* does a top-down approach and literally forgets about elections until the next one is nigh. This needs to be a 24/7/365 if we want to have any chance of avoiding the bad thing that just happened to us, mainly we made little headway at the state and local level across the nation.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
Yes, I agree it wasn’t a very good piece but it’s the only thing I’ve seen on the topic, so, fwiw.
My guess is that rural Hispanics vote differently than urban/suburban and we need to start targeting them differently.
Jazzman
Trump won handily in Indiana–no surprise there, most of the Hoosier state being blood-red. But here’s a shocker: Fady Qaddoura, a Muslim immigrant from Jerusalem,defeated Republican incumbent state senator John Ruckelshaus in state senate district 30. Fady will become the first Muslim member of the Indiana state legislature.
(Ruckelshaus is a nephew of Bill Ruckelshaus, the deputy attorney general who in 1973 resigned rather than carry out Nixon’s order to fire the Watergate special prosecutor. That might have qualified John as a “reasonable Republican”, but he still lost.)
taumaturgo
What should have been a layup for the democrats, turned out to be a rightful repudiation of crazy Trump squeezer, and a massive repudiation of center-right messaging from the current conservative democrats. As an example, Floridians overwhelmingly approved the socialist-communist Benier’s $15 minimum wage while at the same time booting out the centrist democrats and handling the state to Trump’s column.
Kathleen
Uncle Omar
Here in Western Colorado we did Louie Gohmert a big favor. He is no longer the Dumbest Member of Congress. We somehow elected a Glock Totin’ Mama who intends to wear her Glock on the House floor and make her first vote one to Fire Nancy Pelosi. She is also a Q’er, just passed her GED, has been arrested several times, doesn’t pay taxes on her restaurant, food poisoned 76 people at an outdoor fair-type event, and had her restaurant closed down for health code violations during the initial Covid shutdown. I hide my head in shame.
Matt McIrvin
In my part of Massachusetts, very little changed: Lori Trahan and Ed Markey were reelected by a mile, Markey having survived a significant primary challenge from Joe Kennedy; some of the more local officers were reelected unopposed. The extension of Right to Repair passed despite a lurid scare campaign, and ranked-choice voting like they do in Maine was rejected.
Miss Bianca
@Uncle Omar: Yep. I reported on all of this for my local paper. Didn’t do a goddamn thing to change people’s minds.
I groaned when I saw that Diane Mitsch Bush was going to the Dem candidate again. Because my God, talk about lackluster electioneering…nice lady, super qualified, actual experience “reaching across the aisle”…and as bland and boringly good for you as a glass of milk, compared to Tombstone Barbie. DMB whiffed it *again*, against a candidate the Democrats should have been able to beat.
Oh well. Gotta look ahead to 2022!