The other day I described how unexpectedly emotional filling out the oval on my ballot was when I voted. In case you missed it, Team Biden’s excellent ad shop managed to distill that feeling into a 30-second clip:
Uncle Joe, this is a brilliant ad. @JoeBiden pic.twitter.com/Va0gGSzmzn
— the greg (@mistergeezy) October 29, 2020
In the morning thread, we were talking about this NYT tidbit about Trump canceling his election night victory shindig at his DC hotel. Why did he cancel? I speculated that he knows there’s a damn good chance he’ll be humiliatingly defeated and would rather lock himself up in the residence to tweet-scream about VOTER FRAUD and stress-eat Big Macs.
Kay said he’s been working out the idea of losing at his rallies, and that’s true. He told cultists in NC “you’ll never see me again” if Biden wins and speculated in Macon, GA that he “might have to leave the country” if he loses. He says those things in what passes for a “joking” tone, but Trump has no real sense of humor. There’s always an angry or cruel edge to it.
No one knows what the future holds, least of all me. But imagine for a moment that we deliver the electoral smack-down Trump and his Republican enablers deserve — if we sweep them out of power the way Charlie Cook is now predicting:
I believe [Biden’s] actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago…
The House looks likely to see Republicans lose a few more seats on top of the 40 they dropped in 2018. If the over/under is 10 seats, I tend to come down on the higher side.
The Senate is increasingly less a case of whether Democrats will take a majority, but how large will it be. The chances of the GOP keeping its losses down to a seat or two are dropping; I am thinking that a five- or six-seat gain is becoming highly possible.
If that happens, we would replace a malevolent, incompetent and clownish administration and Congress with a decent, experienced and serious one come January 20th. That’s the important thing.
But because I’m a spite voter now, I also hope to witness the ugliest intra-party recriminations the Republicans have experienced since 1960. I wasn’t alive for that one, so I’m eager to see Trump go after people with both barrels, which he will because he’ll convince himself they failed him. And it won’t be Democrats in his sights; it will be Republicans.
I believe this because, as it’s sinking in that he might lose, Trump is lashing out at allies, including his most servile supporters and Fox News. He’s added “joking” threats and casual cruelty to his sycophants to the usual stump repertoire of lies about Democrats.
He threatened to “fire” Florida Governor DeSantis if Florida goes blue. He humiliated Martha McSally. Just yesterday he threatened Florida’s GOP chair if Trump doesn’t win Florida. At 3 o’clock this morning, Trump threatened the SCOTUS justices he appointed to either help him out with the election or become irrelevant.
To repeat, who the hell knows what’s going to happen? Not me! But I offer these speculations on the happy topic of post-election intra-mural Republican blood-letting to balance the doom-scrolling that we 2016 PTSD sufferers perhaps too frequently indulge in. Maybe it’ll be elected Republicans who say, with Bidenesque exasperation, “Just shut up, man.” Open thread!
WaterGirl
That’s perfect, Betty!
Baud
Nice thoughts, but I don’t like to depend on the GOP for my happiness. I’ll enjoy it if and when it happens.
And 2022 awaits! We have to break the backlash cycle.
trollhattan
“…might have to leave the country” IIRC Idi Amin spent his golden years in Saudi Arabia and now that he’s pushing daisies perhaps Donny can move right in. The glowing orb awaits, and because he “doesn’t drink” there are no pesky rule-breaking risks.
Can Twitter please, pretty please cancel his account come January?
trollhattan
Did the Republican self-inquiry following Mittens’ pounding by the Kenyan directly lead to Trump? Still scratching my head over how easily he swept aside the couple dozen wet noodles competing for the ’16 nomination.
dmsilev
This Post headline from yesterday is pure distilled schadenfreude:
As Election Day nears, Trump ponders becoming one thing he so despises: A loser
Lyrebird
Your ability to find humor and/or piggy face filters through these times is such a help, so I am glad you are finding some inspiration!
I am relieved to have voted, and am trying to save up energy for looking out for vulnerable folks when the sh-tstorm of bitter lashing out gets even worse, from Nov 4 to Jan 20.
Ken
I really want to see him go to prison for one of his many frauds. However I’d also find it acceptable if he does maximum damage to the GOP by ordering his followers to oppose any Republicans who don’t show the servile fealty he demands.
If he does seem to be heading that way, there might be considerable (but probably stealthy) Republican support for the prison option.
debbie
One bit of sunniness: My apartment overlooks a church. Today, the kids in their daycare classes held their annual Halloween parade. Usually they march around the neighborhood, but because of COVID, it was just a couple laps around the parking lot. It’s plenty cold here, so there was a lot of jumping around and breaking ranks. I wasn’t even thinking about a parade, but looking up and out the window and seeing all these tiny minions, unicorns, princesses, etc. was a real joy, even more so since Trick or Treat Night was a bust due to heavy rains.
I wanted to yell out my window how great they all looked, but I didn’t want to terrorize close to 50 little beings.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I imagine he would use the word “minions” there, and his model is every Bond villain who ever threw the under-performing minion into the piranha tank.
If he had an education, which of course he doesn’t, he might say “pour encourager les autres”.
trollhattan
@dmsilev:
Wait, I thought Killery was the consensus worst. Since everybody agrees she’s the worst how can Biden be worstiest?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
My prediction, Trump will spend the remainder of the next week screaming about voter fraud until it sinks in no one gives a shit and then Monday the 8th he will announce his 2024 campaign .
trollhattan
@debbie:
I could really use that tableau right now. Just thinking of the little costumed critters brings a smile.
bbleh
From your keyboard to the FSM’s monitor!
I’ll be more than content with a Biden win, a few days of right-wing agitation and violence that burns itself out, some Republican flailing in the courts that yields a few setbacks but nothing substantial, and … the Senate.
Of course, then we have to endure another 2-1/2 months of Trump, and then 4 years of Republican scorched-earth warfare, but as I say, I’ll take it.
I just hope Biden and the Dems have the stones to use the power while they’ve got it.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I think Mitch dismissing the Senate after confirming what’s-her-name and without even taking up a relief bill, was his signal of what’s to come. I’m guessing he won’t take up a bill at all in this session, he’ll just sneer as the economy collapses.
cope
My wife and I saw that spot on the electronic teevee machine the other night and immediately agreed it was the best political commercial either of us had ever seen.
I not only felt strong emotions filling in my ballot this year but also very strong emotions when I went to our polling place to drop them off and saw so many folks standing, waiting. There was no line to the dropbox so I got in and out quickly but if I had had to, I would have been in line as well.
We will not be watching any live TV Tuesday night and not going on the computer at all. It will be reading time and streaming stuff and DVDs, nothing with possible chyrons, probably from mid-afternoon until bedtime. I look forward to waking up Wednesday morning to the bestest, most wonderful morning ever. I’m not sure how the unloyal opposition will respond but that’s a possible reality to be dealt with when it happens.
bbleh
@trollhattan: Because Trump says so shut up!!
feebog
@Ken:
No, he needs to spend the rest of his life behind bars: Election, indictment, trial, sentence, prison.
trollhattan
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Come 2024 Trump will resemble Jabba the Hutt more than any particular human. I say bring it, Donny. (He might could discover funders scurrying for the baseboards.)
trollhattan
@bbleh:
I want ten bucks for every time Donny says “treated unfairly” between now and January. This is my retirement plan, which is mine.
Baud
That ad is sweetness.
germy
rk
I think elected republicans hate him even more than democrats. Imagine bowing down and degrading yourself to Trump and the feral, degenerate deplorables and then find that it’s all been for nothing. I think the flood gates are going to open. Trump is a weak, sniveling coward. I’ll enjoy the blood bath and root for total annihilation of the party.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@trollhattan: Considering how many people are risking death for his stupid rallies Trump will have plenty of MAGAtards to grift off of for the next four years. It’s quite likely that things are doing decently 2024 Trump will be the GOP candidate .
Yarrow
@Baud:
Absolutely. I’m already talking up midterms to people while they’re paying attention to the election. Get them thinking about it now so when you bring it up again in a month or two you can say, “As I said before…”
I had a conversation with a neighbor a few weeks ago about why midterms are so important. She appears like an involved, engaged voter (signs in yard now and in 2018) but she didn’t really get why it was so important to vote in midterms every single time. She voted early for this election and it already excited about voting in 2022. Voter outreach one voter at a time!
Calouste
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: In 2024 the shitgibbon will have shuffled four more years down the ramp of physical and mental decline. He might not even be able to hold a glass of water with two hands by that point.
different-church-lady
I’m worried. I’m anything but confident. But I am taking solace in how different this year seems than four years ago, when you could genuinely feel it slipping away in the last week.
germy
Helen Mirren is in this one (as Billy Bush)
Josie
I voted on a machine that I was not familiar with, so my attention was on getting it done correctly. Afterwards, however, I felt the strongest elation I have ever experienced on voting. It was as if a burden had been lifted. My son seemed to feel it, too. We laughed all the way back to our car.
Quinerly
Took a look at his Twitter thread. Looks like he was Tweeting a good portion of late night, early morning. If the timeline is correct, he slept less than 4 hrs last night. It would be really cool if he totally unravels today and falls over.
different-church-lady
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: He (and the GOP) will spend the remainder of next month launching as many lawsuits as he can, no matter how ludicrous. He will try to keep his hands on the levers of power until rigor mortis has set in.
different-church-lady
@trollhattan: Now let’s be fair: he already does now.
mad citizen
@trollhattan: I think deep down Trump knows he never should have won in 2016, nor expected to (that famous election night pic). The other Repubs wouldn’t drop out and that doomed them. I was congratulating our side a couple weeks ago (in my head) for the primary drop-outs to prevent Bernie from “trumping” our side. It all all happened so fast, then the virus came. But they all learned from 2016 and did the right thing. Kamala having the best outcome, so I love that.
I do think trump has dementia and a 2024 run will not be possible for him; and he also knows investigations are waiting for him as well.
Yarrow
Houston is turning out to vote!
Halteclere
If the Democrats win big, I’d love for the Lincoln Project to turn their sights to fanning the flames of a huge Republican civil war by getting all the Trump enablers to turn on each other. If I were a “sane” Republican, I’d want all the sycophants, grifters and racists to blow each other up and get driven out of politics.
But that would require “sane” Republicans to want to embrace a belief in the US Democracy, protection of the Constitution, limited government, etc. You know, all the things that they claim to support but easily abandon.
schrodingers_cat
Husband kitteh’s cousin in Delhi posted some garbage in the family WhatsApp group about the Orange One being good for India and that’s all she is concerned about. This person is should know better she was a journalist with the Times (India’s NYT, in both the reach, prestige and the bootlicking of the TPTB).
These fuckers are so enamored by Modi that they want the Orange One to win because he is buddy buddy with Modi. It made me go ballistic.
Hoppie
The one and only reason Rump cancelled the victory celebration is nobody was BUYING tickets. He commodotizes everything, and knows the price of everything but the value of nothing (ty OW). RW gazillionaires didn’t get there by wasting moolah. Duh!
Betty Cracker
@trollhattan: I don’t think they’ll be able to quit demagoguery, even if they want to. The MAGA voters won’t allow it, and Trump will be bellowing from the sidelines, steering the cultists to one of his spawn. With any luck, Trump’s loud interference on behalf of Don Jr. or some other flunky Trump controls might short-circuit the rise of a smarter demagogue.
mad citizen
Three Trump in-person rallies today: Michigan, Green Bay, and Rochester MN. Maybe he can stay at the Mayo Clinic for a while. Such a hard worker.
Bluegirlfromwyo
I make no predictions anymore but I couldn’t think of a better fate for elected GOPers. Them yelling “shut up man!” while Trump the loser drones on…their own little hell on Earth. My spite voter self just grins. Well done, Ms. Cracker.
p.a.
ugh, is that a landline poll? Although if Biden is up in a landline poll, it means tRump really is losing the olds.
Yarrow
He’ll still be the president if he loses unless he dies or resigns. The secret service won’t allow him go anywhere they can’t secure. He’ll be a lame duck trapped by the security restrictions of the office. Hilarious, sad and potentially dangerous for all of us.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Calouste: Quite possibly, on the other hand he won’t be so stressed as a private citizen and Trump is a long practiced shit talker. The main thing is Trump is utterly incapable of shame and he has that cult following so I can. see him being an obstacle to the GOP until six months after he dies
khead
I’m hoping for an electoral college result that puts Trump somewhere between Dukakistown and Doleville.
Betty Cracker
@p.a.: Nope — 25% landline, 75% cell phone.
TS (the original)
@different-church-lady:
I doubt that the people at Justice are going to be helping with those lawsuits. Giuliani is in no state to be launching any lawsuits and how many other lawyers does trump know who will work for nothing? I can see an attempt from the GOP but not trump.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
True, but the real question is what does Trump see as the levers of power? He really has a screwed up view of the world. One of the things about him running for 2024 is it allows him to remain in control of the GOP and scamming them for money.
Bruce K
Am I a bad person for wanting there to be a video record of Trump having a reaction to the election returns akin to Mortimer Duke at the end of Trading Places?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
How so? We’ve just seen Giuliani reach into his legal briefs last week.
mad citizen
@khead: Dole 40.7 % (Perot 8.4%) to Dukakis 45.6% range. Not me, I’m hoping he ends up in the 30s, 38 or 39%.
Jeffro
This is exactly on-point. He is going to lash out at the GOP Senators, the SCOTUS, and most deliciously of all, the GOP base for not securing his greatness (2nd only to Abe Lincoln, amirite there trumpov?)
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
MattF
Pleased to see Trump lashing out at his nearest and dearest. Rather than, e.g., you and me. Bodes well for the future, but, of course, we shall see…
Raoul Paste
When he loses, I expect the number of memberships at Mara Largo will plummet
TaMara (HFG)
@Baud: I was thinking this morning as I watched a compilation of Kamala campaigning, this can’t just be a one-off if we win big. We have to fight this hard in the next election and the election after, etc.
People need to understand it will take a while to root out all the scum and scrub away the remnants.
TS (the original)
@Halteclere:
After 4 years of trump showing the impact of limited government, I’m not sure anyone, republicans included, would be interested in that one.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Bruce K: with McConnell screaming “FUCK HIM!” in the same frame
yellowdog
@different-church-lady: I think at least one of those lawsuits will be successful and the shithibbon will be crowned.
FelonyGovt
I was very happy to see this LA Times article about shy Biden voters. We all know that people in red areas are justifiably afraid to show their affiliation publicly.
Jeffro
me too. It beats their scorched-earth “governing”
Hit the ground sprinting and go for broke, Uncle Joe!
danielx
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
With any luck he’ll be a convicted felon by then and won’t be eligible. Assuming he’s still upright, drawing air and semi-sane. And yes, that last qualifier is a stretch, I know.
TaMara (HFG)
@debbie: Aaaawwww! I was soooo happy to see my local daycare had started their walks around my neighborhood again. I couldn’t believe how normal (and joyful) it felt to watch those little 3-4 yr olds, holding onto a rope, walking past my house.
Bonus: Makes Bixby giddy, his butt just does that dog butt shimmy when they walk by – LOL which is very, very funny on such a big boy.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: And start fundraising.
Jeffro
Let’s all promise to keep pointing that out to them, from now until the end of time.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@danielx: If there was justice in the world ya;,… but Trump’s guilty of white collar crimes and those take forever to prosecute. Unless they can get him on rape, Trump will be dead before the courts are done with those.
khead
@mad citizen:
Electoral. Dukakis lost 426-111. Dole was 379-159. I’d take either of those. To get any worse for Trump using results in my lifetime, Biden would have to reach Reagan-esque blowout levels.
Jinchi
I think Democrats will do even better than that. I expect the undecideds to break heavily for Biden this year.
Current polls have him up 52-43. So I’m going with 57-43 as the final tally.
debbie
@TaMara (HFG):
Dogs know better than us just how special children are.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Dorothy A. Winsor: exactly, because scamming for money is the one thing Trump truly cares about.
patrick II
I am surprised that I am not surprised at the courts cooperation with the republican party in cases that somehow limit people’s right to vote. I understood after 2000 that Republican judges were Republicans first and judges second. If that hadn’t made it clear, the voter id law a few years later did.
Chris Hayes had a list of eleven important cases, from what he describes of hundreds across the country, from places like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina that could decide the election, and everyone either decided against voting rights or held in abeyance until they could see how the election went until they had to commit themselves, with the assistance of new judge Amy Barrett, in case Roberts loses his nerve — which he won’t in crunch time.
Putting those cases on hold makes it clear how lawless they are. They know the law is against them so they don’t want to have to commit to breaking it unless it makes a difference in the election. 2000 on steroids.
So, I should be more surpised at this, but sadly I am not. We need a big win to keep our crooked courts away from deciding the presidency. And when this is over, we must take a long hard lood at the Federalist Society and exactly what is it they teach and what they require of their members. The judges are on stage, but the Federalist Society, sponsored by the usual suspects, is pulling the strings.
JDM
I’m feeling fairly hopeful now, but here’s something to keep in mind for the future. In Canada, Brian Mulroney managed to sink the conservative party (at the time the “Progressive Conservative” party; there have been several name changes since but it’s still Canada’s Conservative party) to the point that in an election where pundits thought the conservatives might have a massive failure and get as few as 55 seats they actually got 2 seats. And one of their caucus members soon jumped ship. Nevertheless, via the permutations of the Reform party (basically western conservatives), the let’s get back together CCRAP party (one of the more unfortunate albeit accurate acronyms in recent years), and then the plain ol’ conservatives, they later held the government for several terms and a lot of damage.
That’s taking out a political party to an extent that is really unlikely here, but even so a decade later and they were back creating havoc.
Jeffro
This sounds right. Anyone have some good “rooting for injuries” cheers? I’ve got a nice BLUE pom-pom and I wanna shake it!
Yarrow
@Betty Cracker: The future of the GOP is QAnon.
Calouste
@FelonyGovt: I have noticed there are some big swings (~20%) towards Biden in some deep red states, like West Virginia. Not enough to have him win those states though, but hopefully enough coat tails to pick up the odd house seat and win some local races.
Fleeting Expletive
I don’t know if it has been mentioned here, but Sasha Baron Cohen donated $100K to the woman who was in his film “babysitting” the actress who portrayed his “daughter”.
Peale
@Yarrow: I think we are looking at a right wing funded extensively by Russian and Chinese money and crazy discourses funded by them as well.
Citizen Alan
@trollhattan:
You’ve obviously never watched Survivor (which I haven’t either in over ten years, but the point holds). Since the first season, a common strategy on Survivor, Big Brother, and I assume The Apprentice has been to work on getting into the final two along with the most loathed and reviled contestant remaining with the expectation that the judges will be so repulsed by the other contestant that they’ll pick the lesser evil. It almost never works.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@TaMara (HFG): You and Debbie are brightening my morning with those images.
Yarrow
@TaMara (HFG):
Minimum of three election cycles so voters get a chance to vote out all Republican Senators now in office.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Fleeting Expletive: I just skimmed an excerpt of an article someone here posted about that situation, but it sounds more like a settlement than a donation?
patrick II
@JDM:
I am glad for your optimism, but Canada does not have our history of slavery. In our country, racism driven by big money with affiliated interests is going to be here for a while.
Kropacetic
I’ll happily put Clinton down as better than Biden. Though neither is exactly my cup of tea, they’re nowhere near the worst. The “worst” has the job of President right now, but the Republicans will eventually come up with worse, still.
It took Bush eight years to totally destroy the country, Trump got it done in under four. By this trajectory, the next Republican president will make this country a smoldering crater in a mere two years. That’s American exceptionalism.
UncleEbeneezer
How to deal with White Supremacy is a real problem for our society (the world) but it’s also a major problem for the GOP. It’s all they have (along with hatred of women, LGBTQ, Muslims etc.) and it seems like younger voters are becoming increasingly aware of how those things work and uninterested in a Party that pushes that shit. But the GOP has centered those things for so long, and their base is so addicted to them that I don’t know how they can meaningfully step away from them. Sucks to be them…couldn’t happen to a more worthless group of Nazis…
Matt McIrvin
@germy: She included that in her (peculiar and uneven) TV special, “Everything’s Fine.”
My favorite bit in it was the one where she played a close-up magician miserably attempting to adapt to COVID distancing by performing to audiences in cars.
Just Chuck
@Fleeting Expletive: SBC didn’t donate a thing: that $100K was crowdsourced by his fans.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
jesus
Kropacetic
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Blasphemer, I am no such person.
Fleeting Expletive
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Could be, The Oklahoman had a little piece about it and I haven’t tracked down any more mentions.
Jinchi
Agreed. I think Trump will try to burn everything to the ground as much as possible. Fauci and Christopher Wray should probably expect to be fired soon and he’s moving fast to gut regulations by Jan 19th. And he’ll be doling out blanket pardons to favored sycophants.
But we’re at the point where honest agents in the government can slow walk things enough that it will limit the damage considerably.
Matt McIrvin
@Yarrow: I started talking up the 2018 midterm the day after Election Day 2016. But getting people to turn out for midterms when the loathsome nominee of the other party has won is relatively easy. It’s much harder when your guy won.
Scout211
It’s probably just wishful thinking on my part, but after all the counting and results are eventually settled, I don’t see Trump having the energy or desire to stay in office and file lawsuit after lawsuit in order to do so. In my wishful scenario, he dramatically huffs and puffs for months but leaves the Whitehouse. Or maybe I am just dreaming . . .
Jinchi
I know it’s comedy, but the 24 year old woman playing his daughter doesn’t look remotely like a 14 year old girl, and I doubt anyone believed she was, even when he declared it.
But if she had been, why would she need a babysitter?
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
My late father in-law is STILL getting begging mail from the Tangerine Ballsac, his sons Beavis and Butthead, and from various “committees” with DC post office boxes. Two different groups seem to be in the same building. I like to reply with unpleasant comments, note that he should put his own money in the race like he said he would, if he had any, and the sincere wish that he dies broke and in jail, as he’s halfway there now. Oh, and send it all back, postage due.No one is likely to read it, but it makes me happy.
Yes, I know i’m a bad person. But this is my idea of a good cause.
schrodingers_cat
@Peale: Indian money too, the Sangh and the BJP is in the tank for the current WH occupant.
Jinchi
@Scout211: Keep up the optimism. I like the future you’re imagining.
Jesse
@Baud: This. I look forward to doing my part to make sure that Dems focus on *every* national election (every 2 years), not just the presidential ones. We need to find a way to keep fighting. Look at what happened with all the Obama enthusiasm in 2008. We CANNOT go through that again.
Matt McIrvin
Oh, that’s not his job.
marcopolo
@TaMara (HFG): I am hoping that after this election & going forwards our folks will learn the lesson of persistence. That you don’t just win an election and it’s all good again. Obama’s wins in 2008 & 2012 should be instructive in that regards.
To that end we need to embrace the idea that our fight to make things better doesn’t stop on Nov. 4th if Biden wins on Nov. 3. Sure, let’s all take a day or two (or a week) to celebrate if we win, but then let’s all make our lists of 1) who we need to support again (local, state, federal) in the next cycle; 2), who we need to defeat; 3), and what we need to lobby the folks we just elected on to get important shit passed ASAP so that our voters get a reward for their actions.
Alas, we no longer live in a world (if we ever did) where you show up to vote and your work is done.
Scout211
@Boris Rasputin (the evil twin):
My father died in 2015 and Trump and the Republicans are still begging him for money via my sister’s address.
Betty Cracker
@Yarrow: IIRC, the good news is that the 2022 Senate map is really tough for Republicans — way more seats on the line. If we win big, I’m hoping a Biden admin will have instituted some heavy-duty protections for voters by then: the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act.
danielx
@Betty Cracker:
Possible, but…yeah, you’re probably right. My thought initially was that Republican power brokers would say something along the lines of hey, you’re not president any more and we don’t have to be afraid of you, but…primaries. It’s Trump’s party now and Trump will hang around like the odor of a dead skunk. Whoever he gets behind will get the votes of the base whether it’s one of his miserable spawn, somebody like Tom Cotton, or some Palin-like person.
Flip side is that nobody is like Trump in his ability to manipulate his followers, nor yet in his ability to numb people with scandals.
ETA: and yes he will try to burn everything down on the way out the door, big and small alike. Opening Tongass, assaulting civil service protections, taking gray wolves off endangered list….it will get worse.
JDM
@patrick II:
I wasn’t talking about optimism for the future really, just about this election. My attempted point is that Canada (not as non-racist as you seem to imagine) provides an example of a massive implosion of the conservative party – to a degree of destruction that is unlikely here – that shows the underlying a-holes are ready, willing, and quite possibly able to stage a big comeback in a fairly short period of time. And that we need to be aware of that.
MattF
This is Trump’s personal lawyer.
ETA: Multiple trigger warnings.
patrick II
@Jinchi:
Old country customs.
marcopolo
@Jesse: Not just the national elections. Also state & local elections. A local DA may have as much of an impact on a person’s day-to-day life as their congressperson. A local school board member’s decisions can really affect the lives of folks with school age kids.
And as someone who volunteered 50-60 hours/week for months for the 2008 Obama campaign I mean it when I say I was utterly demoralized by the way so many of us campaign workers were casually thrown aside once he took office. We were ready to lobby congresspeople to accomplish his agenda but the organization & marching orders never came. I blame Rahm Emanuel for the most part. He had Obama’s ear & was no fan of the grassroots. It’s no surprise his tenure as Chicago mayor was so bad.
germy
A gofundme with $100,000 as the goal. Many people donated. Not sure how much Sasha chipped in.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Bruce K:
“Turn those machines back on!”
SandyZ
@patrick II: If it wasn’t for this darn covid thing, we should be out demonstrating in front of every federal courthouse in the country. Don’t think they are not vulnerable to public pressure. Let them know what’s coming for them over the next few years.
patrick II
@JDM:
OK. Thank you.
The Moar You Know
That’s frankly a kind way of putting it. If anyone had done to me what he did to her at that rally, I would have gotten up on stage, told the crowd to vote for Biden and my opponent, and finished off with a “go fuck yourself, Lord Littledick”
But it appears I have more dignity than a Republican Senator. That is some sad shit there.
germy
@MattF:
Despicable.
Hoppie
@Scout211: It will not be close.
mad citizen
@TaMara (HFG): I’m already ready to start working to vote out our R Senator in 2022. I’m really interested in Beto and Stacey’s GOTV organizations, and doing that in other states. When I think about it, it kinda points to the long-time ineffectiveness of the Democratic party structure in my state. But I’m sure it’s chicken and egg–got to have engaged people to make more more engaged people, etc.
I’ve always thought Sacha Baron Cohen should be giving more money to his unsuspecting players in these films.
danielx
OT, but it is an open thread.
danielx
@The Moar You Know:
You have to admit that doesn’t require a lot of heavy lifting.
The Moar You Know
@dmsilev: Hitler had the dignity to eat a .380 round when faced with such humiliation. Just a suggestion.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jesse: lots of lessons for grassroots Dems to learn from 2009-2020: The President is not a benign dictator; we don’t like to put politicians in jail, unless the cash is actually found in the freezer; the Constitution is stacked against us; the courts matter; politicians and policies and slogans that set fire to your social media might not play so well with the older, less-engaged (auto-correct changed that to ‘less-enraged’, which also applies) voters who still make up a sizable part of our party and an even broader part of the national electorate; grow the fuck up and stop waiting for and whining about the perfect cup of tea; four years of infuriating incompetence and corruption will not necessarily create a political tidal wave in your preferred direction (actually a lesson of 2004); there are a lot of things to not like about Chuck Schumer, but he has to deal with Joe Manchin, Krysten Sinema and Jon Tester, and if we’re lucky people who look a lot more like them (politically) than Elizabeth Warren.
and maybe most of all: Incrementalism can actually be a big fucking deal
ETA: the most important of all: Republicans are the real enemy.
The Moar You Know
@danielx: These days, it sure doesn’t.
I want to ask McSally what sweaty loafer with lifts tastes like. Probably won’t ever get the chance.
Baud
@mad citizen:
I think this is exactly a big part of the problem we’ve had over the last couple of decades. Our politicians are reluctant to be aggressive for voters who talk but don’t show up, and voters refuse to show up until they have proof that politicians will be aggressive. (I’m referring to the margins needed to win elections, not the core Democrat).
misterpuff
He also told Erie, PA he shouldn’t have had to come there (basically blaming the voters for his poll regression) and he told Iowans if hes not elected, he won’t ever be back to Iowa.
Like, even if he wins, he would ever visit these Podunk fly-over backwaters (Unless he needs some good ol’ fashioned mob adulation or stage a Nurenberg rally again).
germy
@The Moar You Know:
I’ve said this before, but I think it would be particularly humiliating for him to lose to Obama’s former VP.
Any other Democrat, and especially a woman; it would bother him. But Joe? Obama’s guy? Trump made it his mission to try to erase his legacy. Unsuccessfully, like every other endeavor.
Didn’t he tell his staff “I’m not losing to fucking Joe Biden!!” ? I thought one of his leakers revealed that.
Hoppie
@danielx: The history of Rethugs is they have never heard of their recent loser. Nixon? Not a clue. Romney? Who you shittin’? So I am not that worried that Rump is their guiding light.
But what does worry me, that Amurrican voters have about the attention span of a horny middle school student.
Geminid
@The Moar You Know: trump did pretty much the same with Joni Ernst at the Omaha rally, maybe worse. I think he will treat David Perdue and Tom Tillis much better when he campaigns in Georgia and North Carolina, the misogynist asshole.
danielx
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
This.
Matt McIrvin
@misterpuff: The crowds that go to those rallies seem to love his negging. In their minds, getting abused by him just cements his image as the powerful, colorful strongman who gives no fucks.
RAM
God knows Joe’s going to have a lot on his plate if he wins, but one priority ought to be some sort of commission to look at securing the vote for every American. This election’s endemic Republican vote-suppressing and stealing BS has got to be energetically smashed once and for all if we’re to remain a democratic society.
zhena gogolia
@The Moar You Know:
I don’t think that’s the part of him she was being forced to swallow.
Baud
@RAM: I don’t think it’ll be a commission. It’ll be one of the first things Congress does.
@zhena gogolia: Oh snap!
RaflW
A couple days ago I saw a current member of the Minnesota House GOP attack former two-term Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty on Twitter. It was delightful.
Much more of this please.
[Pawlenty is a yutz, and his brand of conservatism was a precursor, in that he would give the most mild and folksy radio interviews, clearly comfortable with media, and working his boring angle. But his policies were aggressively conservative and doctrinaire right. I’m just rooting for intra-party injuries.]
WhatsMyNym
@Fleeting Expletive: @germy:
According to PEOPLE there are 2 different funds – a GoFundMe for Jones, and another that Sacha gave money to…
ETA- edited to add Sacha’s name
germy
And now Rahm is sold to us by ABC as the wise pundit who will tell us how things are and how things are done. One reason I won’t be tuning in to ABC and George Steph on election night.
Roger Moore
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I sincerely doubt it. If Trump loses, he will also lose the ability to use DOJ as a shield against all the legal problems he’s facing, both criminal and civil. Even if he tries to pardon himself as he leaves- which I expect him to do- he still faces potential criminal liability in New York state. If he stays in the US rather than fleeing abroad, he is very likely to be in prison, tied up in nasty litigation that continues to provide terrible publicity, or both when 2024 rolls around.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@RAM: absolutely, The John Lewis Voting Rights Act
trollhattan
@RAM:
A “John Lewis Voting Rights Act” has been suggested and I’m wholly on board with that. Congress and the president have to deliver a giant fuck you to the USSC by neutering Shelby County. Then Justice can begin issuing consent decrees to each state participating in voter suppression.
Baud
@germy:
The other is George Steph.
prostratedragon
Ad is everso brilliant. Hall of Fame stuff.
PST
@Betty Cracker: Not only is the 2022 Senate map tough on republicans, many of the states with democratic incumbents are either solid blue states or states with popular senior senators (or both). I’m talking Blumenthal, Schumer, Wyden, Leahy, Murray, etc. The Georgia and Arizona special elections have reruns, so at best democrats have the incumbency and at worst they have another bite at the apple. If Harrison doesn’t win this time around against Graham, it would be interesting to see him run against Scott. On the republican side, I would bet we see some retirements. In any event, it at least looks like the democrats aren’t set up for backlash in the Senate.
Kropacetic
Your not-so-righteous indignation and shade throwing aside, what we need is for people to vote for Biden, liking him is secondary. I’ve voted a straight D ticket for almost my entire voting career and the only thing that has made me consider doing otherwise is assholes like you shaming me and others for showing even slight discomfort about it.
You’re the one who needs to grow up, pal. On the first day of early voting, during my lunch break, I raced to do my part to get that numpty, Trump, out of office. And I sincerely hope Biden follows through on his platform of repudiating the first 30 years of his own career.
Litlebritdifrnt
@misterpuff: He is going to figure out a way to get on a private jet and leave the country, or he can’t steal AF1, but he could go on a “trip” to a non extradition country and then just refuse to get back on the plane. He will be humiliated and will never want to show his face again.
Roger Moore
@mad citizen:
I expect him to go from completely fine and acing all his cognitive tests to being too far gone to understand what’s going on the moment an indictment is unsealed.
Peale
@Roger Moore: I expect to see him dragged out in a wheelchair mumbling incoherently on stage in 2024 like a circus freak to support Don Junior’s run for the presidency. And when Don loses, the family will just discard him by the side of the highway in Iowa. If he doesn’t die in jail, I want him to die in a dumpster.
Halteclere
@TS (the original):
Very true. I was just trying to think of some old-fashioned Conservative positions that a chastised Republican party could return to.
Trump’s Presidency, and the COVID-19 response in the US is a direct argument against the extremes of limited government, the worship of unfettered capitalism, and the celebration of rugged individualism to the detriment of community and society.
Joey Maloney
@RAM: As a starting point, reinstitute preclearance for every state. It was struck down for being unfair to the Old Confederacy. Take away that pretext.
germy
Baud
@germy:
Bipartisanship!
MisterForkbeard
@Kropacetic: You may not be Jim’s target audience there, man.
I have a decade-long friend I recently stopped talking to. He’s Very Online Left and spent a huge amount of time online constantly dragging Biden, and getting lots of agreeing comments from his other online acquaintances – and I don’t mean criticizing, I mean dragging. He would preface each one with a “I’m voting for Biden BUT” and then launch into either a rightwing manufactured meme, something incredibly misleading about how Biden treats the Left, or a diatribe about how Biden was really a Republican, was going to fill his cabinet with Republicans, etc.
I called him on it and asked him to just stop for awhile – that many of his posts were full of misinformation, but that even by his own statement the last thing he should do is try to splinter Biden’s vote even if his information was actually true – he told me that the slightest criticism of Biden was apparently out of bounds, and that we all need to call out ‘evil’ when we see it and how could I censor him, etc. He got a lot of vociferous agreement. Shades of Greenwald, now that I think about it.
I told him I was happy to hear he was still voting for Biden, but that he was being toxic and self-destructive and I just didn’t have the willingness to talk to him anymore. Then ended the friendship. THAT is the kind of person Jim’s talking about. They truly do need to let their shit go.
MisterForkbeard
@Joey Maloney: This is actually a great idea. It would be a pain for the blue & responsible states, but Republicans have been shitting in the pool for long enough and the only way to fix the problem is to mandate that NO ONE shits in the pool.
Though I have concerns about a Republican DOJ giving clearance to Red States and sabotaging Blue States who’ve never had this problem.
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@Scout211: Grandpa Rasputin got the Montgomery-Ward catalog for 17 years after he died. “We haven’t heard from you lately” read one note. If they had heard from him, that’s called a seance.
Roger Moore
@Matt McIrvin:
One big hope for the 2022 midterms is that if we do really well in state legislature elections, we may be able to block the worst of Republican gerrymandering. Given how important gerrymandering has been in Republican success, that could be huge.
Kropacetic
Well, the post I responded to included a direct reference to something I wrote upthread. And I agree that a lot of complaints from the left about Democrats are suspect, to put it mildly. I’m not convinced that this sort of stuff is all that destructive, though. It is important that some people are out there making the argument that it’s OK to have a lot of problems with a candidate and to still vote for that candidate, which seems to be where a lot of the leftier people I follow have been this cycle.
Ken
Well, you know what they (meaning Randall Munroe) says about that.
catclub
I am not sure. If Biden wins in a landslide he will have effective (but not legal) authority to call for a relief bill. MCConnell will be hard pressed to ignore that. Also, if they pass one in december, they can oppose all the more vigorously in april.
Baud
@Kropacetic:
If misinformation is being spread I think it’s destructive, even if it’s qualified by a commitment to vote.
If it’s policy based, it’s different.
ETA: I’m referring to Mister’s friend, not you.
Amir Khalid
What will Trump say when his defeat (touch wood) is beyond dispute? I don’t expect a graceful concession speech, because the man has no grace in him. I do wonder whom he’s going to lash out at, whom he’s going to blame, how thickly he’ll layer on the self-pity. And, of course, how much Freude we will get from his Schade.
catclub
@Joey Maloney: That HAS to be in it. But from reading RBG’s dissent I know that any jurisdiction can earn its way out of preclearance by good behavior. All those states that sued never were able to maintain that good behavior long enough (10 years) to earn it. And it was always the same usual suspects.
MomSense
@marcopolo:
Are you sure that wasn’t a local thing? We had transition meetings and house parties and an organizer. We went on to work on healthcare reform, make calls for the ARRA, etc. There were people from all the states on our volunteer calls.
Chief Oshkosh
@Yarrow:
You mean the same Secret Service that is so pissed at him for exposing them (and thus their families) to The Plague every fucking day for no good reason. That Secret Service?
They might just find that his Scottish golf course is plenty secure. Drop him off in January and check on him in early summer. He’ll be fine…a little cold and wet, but fine.
MisterForkbeard
@Kropacetic:
Yep! I think there’s a huge difference between “have a lot of problems with” and “make up huge weird conspiracies”, though. Hell, I actually really like Biden and I have a lot of problems with some of his proposed policies – his judicial reform commission is a huge potential problem as I see it, for example. Others here have said the same thing.
But a huge difference between that and “he gave a Republican 5 minutes to speak at the convention but didn’t give <insert intensely anti-biden Left voice here> time, so therefore he’s going to favor Republicans and dump on the left” type whining. Or talking about how he’s going to appoint half of his cabinet as Republicans. Or “Huntering”, which is all I’m going to say about that.
But you’re onto something, which is that I think it’s really important that we normalize the idea that you will not agree with your candidate on everything. You can have major disagreements on important issues and still vote for a candidate as the best viable choice.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Amir Khalid: not a prediction, but a plausible scenario: Having cancelled his party at his DC hotel, trump retrenches even further by flying to Mar-a-Loco on Sunday, so that Ron DeSantis and whoever else can get friendly crowds over to that hotel he has near the airport, so he can helicopter over to give a non-concession about all the terrible things that he’s going to look at very strongly, to the hoots and hoof-stomping and flipper clapping of true believers, and get back to his room to watch TV and rage-tweet from his bed, surrounded by the detritus of a McDonald’s binge
LadySuzy
@Halteclere: After the election, the Lincoln Project plans to campaign for Voting Rights and Election Security, among other things. They’ll be strong allies on this.
They want to defeat all Trump enablers in the Senate. They’re already thinking about senate races in 2022.
We’ll see how the situation evolves. But those guys are evolving too. Some of them are also waking up to the fact that the “disease” predates Trump.
I’m not sure they realize how DEEP the problems are, how the bitotry and the religious extremism now define the GOP. But I have no doubt they’ll come to see it, and continue their grieving process.
For a couple of weeks, I’ve been listening to them each night : “The Break-Down” on their LP tv. They are doing their best to peel off republicans from Trump and are delighted (as we are) that they are succeeding much more than they expected. Their goal was to convince 4% of republicans to vote Biden. Mike Madrid, their “numbers” guy, say that in some places it looks like it will be 10, 12%.
I’ve come to appreciate them. Their consciences have been shaken. They have taken action, as opposed to all the cowards who have said nothing.
They have guts. They’ve lost friends. Some of them have received death threats. And yet they continue in their efforts.
If Americans want to save their democracy, both liberals and conservatives of good conscience have to work together. And it’s a beautiful thing to see this happening.
MisterForkbeard
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I can see a lot of “but Stacey Abrams never conceded! We’re just doing what democrats do!11!” whining online.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Don’t know what can be done here?
ETA:
I can’t keep track of all the lawsuits and Calvinball. FL starts counting early? are there efforts to stop the count?
germy
Quiltingfool
Had to go shopping today. Passed by the Trump campaign headquarters. They have a half-price sale on all items! I chuckled as I gave it the “You’re Number One” finger – you know, the middle one.
KenK
@marcopolo: @#104: My wife and I voted last Saturday in Amherst, NY. We both voted straight “D” ticket. NY is a Democratic “stroll” for Presidential election. You are absolutely right, the real shit happens with down ballot voting.
Calouste
@MisterForkbeard: The issue we have seen in the last two election cycles is that the less specific a candidate is, the easier it is for his
cultistsvoters to think that he agrees with them on everything. Candidates that have concrete, detailed plans don’t give certain people that warm fuzzy feeling that they can project their own ideas and opinions on that candidate, because while there might be more that is actually confirmed they agree on, there is also more that is confirmed that they disagree on.germy
Betty Cracker
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Florida counts early and always has, so hopefully officials will have their shit together this year. No idea what is going on at that P.O.
KenK
@The Moar You Know: @ #109: Yeah, appalling. I showed that clip to my wife, of Irish descent. Her temper/reaction was a bit more than her red hair. My mother was Irish, so I know from long experience, you really don’t want to piss off an Irishwoman!
Ruckus
@trollhattan:
He steamrolled his opposition by saying the quiet part out loud and proud. The racist part of the republican party went all in toot sweet. They weren’t going to miss the guy who finally said what they wanted to hear.
KenK
@The Moar You Know: @#115; I’ll be awaiting the lackeys to burn the corpse.
KenK
@misterpuff: @#119. Well, trump’s supporters in Omaha and Tampa hope you’re right.
Ruckus
@trollhattan:
Wait, you are trying to make sense of the republican party?
This republican party?
KenK
@misterpuff: @#119 (again)
“…stage a Nurenberg rally again).”
I’m down for another war crimes trial.
KenK
@germy: @#120.
Any other Democrat, and especially a Black woman; it would bother him.
FIFY
MisterForkbeard
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well, that explains why Miami-Dade is behind where they should be. The post office under DeJoy is just… not delivering the ballots.
geg6
@germy:
I’ll be watching Rachel, Joy and Nicolle on MSNBC. I love them together and I dearly hope that Claire McCaskill will join them.
Another Scott
Even better, the new Congress starts on January 3.
Even betterer, if Kelly wins the special Senate election, he could be seated on November 30.
Even bettererer, if Warnock wins without a runoff (50% + 1) then he could also be seated earlier than January ( but I haven’t seen a date).
Make it so!! VOTE VOTE VOTE!!
Cheers,
Scott.
James E Powell
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Agreed with this add: We have to do something about Republican voters. We have say very loudly that their racism, misogyny, and anti-science beliefs are just wrong, that they are hurting the nation, that they should be ashamed of themselves. They are not RealAmericans®, they are anti-Americans.
We spend too much time and effort trying to mollify or avoid offending these ignorant, white supremacist assholes
When Hillary called them deplorable, there was too much apologetic walking back bullshit. The response from every living Democrat should have been, you’re damn right they’re deplorable and here’s why.
catclub
@MisterForkbeard: On the one hand, the increase overall in first class mail due to mail in ballots is really small ( suppose there is about one firstclass mail item per mailbox per day).
On the other hand, all the mailin ballots are going TO a limited number of addresses, so they can be blocked there.
JCJ
@feebog: Election, indictment, trial, sentence, prison.
I like it! Is this the new “person, man, woman, camera, TV”?
MisterForkbeard
@catclub: I think that’s basically it. For whatever reason they’re just… not moving on from the mail facility when they’re supposed to. And bam, bottleneck.
Wonder if that’s happening elsewhere. It’s certainly what the recent court decisions are designed to encourage.
burnspbesq
@trollhattan:
You could end up with more money than CALPERS.
burnspbesq
@Yarrow:
FTFY.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/texas-2020-early-vote/index.html
Uncle Cosmo
Ivanka-le-BiC holding on the rice-white discourtesy phone…
Uncle Cosmo
@Kropacetic: No, you’re a KropaDOPE and you will always be a KropaDOPE. If not a KrapaDOPE. A waste of C, H, O, N and trace minerals. The notion that billions of years ago some star had to die to provide your component atoms is too ghastly to contemplate.
Morzer
I have just seen a statistic that makes me think that Charlie Cook might be too pessimistic:
of voters who have voted so far, 13% of Republicans and 60% of Independents have gone for Biden! When you add in the amazing turn-out seen so far, it looks like a thrashing for Trump and his squamous, batrachian hordes.