Bob Woodward recorded several conversations with Jared Kushner last April. The key take-away is we have severe doubts that Mr. Kushner could pass a test that non-humans of higher intelligence levels can readily pass. Dolphins will recognize themselves in a mirror by the time they are a year old.
Open Thread!
Martin
Reminder that people who are incompetent are unable to be aware of their own incompetence – by definition. They require external agents to make them aware of it.
SiubhanDuinne
In the earlier Kushner thread, someone either said or quoted someone who said (paraphrased), “Jared Kushner looks like an embalmed penis.”
That‘s being filed in the Oh, God, I WISH I’d said that! folder. Both vivid and accurate.
khead
@Martin:
That Dunning ain’t going to Kruger itself.
debbie
Good god.
Patricia Kayden
VeniceRiley
@SiubhanDuinne: It was me and I found the link! Worth a read:
https://www.pajiba.com/politics/jared-kushner-assails-black-america-for-not-trying-hard-enough.php
Mart
Platforms are for pissing people off. Trying to do the right thing for the president gets you the idiot treatment and you are replaced with a sycophant. And a hostile takeover of the Republican party by Trump are the new norms. Let’s talk Wednesday and see how that is working out for you.
RaflW
Is that a Kinsey gaffe there where Jarred tells the truth about the platform?
RaflW
@Patricia Kayden: One of the first replies to Amy is, of course, “but the 2016 polls!” Reading comprehension is not always easy for our side, either, it seems.
Hoodie
I think it’s measure of how much the country’s possessed by battered spouse syndrome that there hasn’t been holy hell raised about the President of the United States put his fucking son-in-law in charge of the response to one of the greatest national security challenges ever faced by this country. It’s always questionable when you put a family member in such a position (e.g., putting Hillary in charge of the health care plan in the Clinton admin probably wasn’t the greatest idean and JFK probably should have nominated someone other than Bobby as AG), but this punk is singularly unqualified for anything.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@RaflW: I was gonna say, it’s the smartest thing I’ve heard the dolt say
bbleh
“The most dangerous people around the President are over-confident idiots” and that Trump had replaced them …
Sadly, as the old saying sorta goes, you can replace your staffers but you can’t replace your family.
El Cruzado
This man may look like an idiot, and he may talk like an idiot, but don’t let yourself be fooled by all of that, her really is an idiot.
different-church-lady
HOW IN FUCK’S NAME DID TRUMP MANAGE TO FIND A SON-IN-LAW WHO’S JUST AS EVIL AND FUCKED UP AS HE IS, IF NOT MORE???
(Note: not irony shouting, for a change…)
prostratedragon
Never forget that Ivanka
was attracted to Jared because he reminded her of Patrick Bateman, her fantasy boy. On this stupid pad or I’d find a link.
jonas
A son-in-law who wouldn’t have even gotten a security clearance if Trump hadn’t overridden the normal protocols by presidential fiat. But oh no, the big scandal is Hunter Biden…
different-church-lady
@El Cruzado: “I implore you, send him back to his father and brothers, who are waiting for him with open arms in the penitentiary.”
SiubhanDuinne
@VeniceRiley:
It’s brilliant. Thanks for the link.
laura
Self regard is the wax faced gormless shitweasel’s strong point. Otherwise, just an entitled self enriching fuckwit who was willing to let his wife traipse about Buckingham Palace with a max maxipad roped to her head.
dmsilev
Jared has a strong point?
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Freezing weather. How apt.
The Wehrmacht was 9 miles away from Moscow until they froze in the brutal late October weather.
different-church-lady
“The tortoise lays on its back, its belly baking in the hot sun, beating its legs trying to turn itself over, but it can’t. Not without your help. But you’re not helping.”
“What do you mean, I’m not helping?”
“I mean: you’re not helping! Why is that, Jared?”
Jeffro
In. Fucking. April.
Thanks, Bob! We’ll get to you as soon as we’re done dragging (literally) Jared…
mrmoshpotato
His face. His face is tremendous, bigly, very strongly pasty as fuck.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
The young and supple Jared reminds me of Willy Brown comment about Ross Periot when Ross was whining about all the problems he was having (something to the effect of) “Politics isn’t easy, leave it to the professionals”.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
That and out of gas and spare parts, as the Army Quarter Master predicted and was told to shut up about. The Master Race’s planning for the invasion of the Soviet Union makes for hilarious reading.
Martin
@different-church-lady: Who other than an evil bootlicker would want to be his son in law?
Look, it’s been easy for Trump to find these people because crooks can only behave like crooks when working for a crook. So they come out of the damn woodwork.
Omnes Omnibus
@prostratedragon: Although fictional and a psychopath, Bateman was a better human being than Kushner could dream of being.
karensky
OMG. What fun!
Martin
@prostratedragon: Had nothing to do with the fact that Jared’s dad was as rich ad Trump pretended to be and just as corrupt?
Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.)
I don’t think the guy is fully human. He’s like some kind of humanesque homunculus, or maybe an ineptly programmed robot–kind of like Mark Zuckerberg.
different-church-lady
@Martin: I just thought it would be difficult to find someone who came up to Trump’s impossibly high level of slime and shamelessness. Like, shouldn’t Jared still be a trainee?
gene108
@Patricia Kayden:
DO NOT JINX THIS ELECTION!!!
I do not care what the polls say. Election gods can be fickle, and can smite you for amusement.
different-church-lady
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.): They share the same dead shark eyes, don’t they?
Spanky
Well, I see the stock markets are doing their part.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
A comment from another blog:
“The Failson-in-law looks like the kind of guy who never farts.”
The Eccentric
I’ve been a long time reader of this blog (around the time of the business with Terri Schiavo) and very infrequent poster. I hate to come hat in hand, but circumstances have forced me to step briefly out into the light and ask for some kind help from the jackals. Due to a number of unfortunate events (job loss, heart defect that threw me into the hospital for a month, etc.) my finances are pretty much in tatters and we’re on the verge of having our utilities shut off, I tried the local Social Services/Community Action, but their funds are exhausted. Not surprising given the current situation.
So, I thought I would ask the group for any help they might kindly offer. We need about $ 3,000 to get back to normal. I very stupidly assumed that there would be at least one more round of stimulus thinking that helping people would be of equal importance to shoveling judges onto the courts. Fool ‘twas I. If anyone has a few spare dollars they could throw my way (and I know with political donations everyone is close to tapped out) I would be eternally grateful. I promise to pay it forward once we’re back on our feet. You have no idea how much it pains me to ask for help like this since I’ve always considered myself to be a self-reliant person, but 2020 has just been the culmination of several years of darkness.
I’ve set up an account (paypal.me/EdmundKowalski) so anyone who is in a position to help, and willing to do so can contribute. I’m hoping that in a week’s time we’ll have returned some sanity to this country and we can begin getting back to normal. If any of the front pagers would like to highlight this, please do so. Once again, thanks for reading through this and I’m grateful for anything tossed my way including the ever-popular “thoughts and prayers”.
prostratedragon
@Martin: That’d be less objectionable, or at least less psychopathic.
Baud
The Supreme Court just issued an order on Pennsylvania. From what I can tell, all ballots received after election day will be segregated so that the courts can later decide whether they can be counted. All parties apparently have agreed to this procedure. If I’m reading this right, if Biden can win PA based on ballots received on or before election day, then the lawsuit becomes moot (unless the PA GOP does a 180 on their position, and the GOP justices as well).
So if you’re in PA, get your ballots in ASAP and preferably without mailing them.
Omnes Omnibus
Do we have a reappearance of Jurassic Pork under another name? Question not accusation.
dmsilev
@different-church-lady: “Always two there are, no more no less. A master and an apprentice.”
FlyingToaster
Trust me, up heah in Bwahstin we’ve known that creep Jared for a long long time:
Jared Kushner got his start as a Somerville Landlord [bostonglobe paywall]
gene108
@Hoodie:
I think it’s Republicans, who have acquiesced. The rest of the country is mad as hell. But this Administration has no scruples. The public pressure that usually forces an Administration to fire an adviser or Cabinet Secretary does not work on this bunch.
This is known. Save our energy for more useful endeavors
Ohio Mom
Forget how this reflects on Jared, think about how it reflects on every Republican.
They stay loyal to this family that is so openly disrespectful and contemptuous of them? I broke up with boyfriends over less.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Why the fuck would our side agree to this? We control the governorship and SOS in PA. They could just say, “The Supreme Court has made it’s decision. Now let them enforce it.”, if SCOTUS told them that ballots received after Election Day (but postmarked in time) could not be counted
jl
@Patricia Kayden: Very well could be a landslide. The Economist and 538 models gave almost identical results until a few days ago. Now the predictions are starting to diverge. Which to believe? It’s educated guesswork.
I favor the Economist approach. Partly because it was designed by Andrew Gelman, an excellent applied statistician. The intuitive description of what that model is does is much easier to follow, and you can download the data used and the code, which I don’t have time to go through, but at least it is a gesture of good faith, and if there were problems I assume some stats nerd would be saying something.
I think that the Economist model’s assumptions are more reliable because every part of the model uses out-of-sample predictive validation using all WWII elections. It uses the distribution state, regional and national voting patterns from previous elections to model likely state specific swings. Those might be very unpredictable, but since looking at whole distribution gets a better estimate of uncertainty, at least.
The 528 model is built on so many rules of thumb Silver has come up with, the the description is so confusing, it’s hard to tell what it is doing. The issue of how to weight past polls for a state is particularly opaque, and not helped by the list of the most influential polls for each state at 528, since I can’t see any pattern in how they match up with my rough guess at how that weighting should work
Edit: I think the two forecasts are starting to diverge because 528 has some rules of thumb about how elections tighten in the last days of the campaign, and Economists uses a much more empirical approach. But hard to tell, since from description, I’m not sure at all what the 538 model is doing.
frosty
So, after election day, if Biden wins, then the courts will decide that the late arriving ballots should be counted, and surprise! they put Trump over the top. Of course, if Trump wins on election day, the courts will decide not to count the other ballots.
This sounds like fuckery to me. Anyone want to talk me down?
Kay
Biden’s gonna win Iowa too.
Platonicspoof
I’m having trouble seeing the difference between Blair Erskine’s parody piece in the post below and the Woodward tapes of Jared’s indifference and disdain.
Baud
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): Because it avoids a segregation order now.
@frosty:
No. That’s my point. If Biden wins based on ballots received by election day, the GOP’s legal theory evaporates. They’d have to argue the opposite theory, and get all the right wing judges to change their minds (and get the Dems and the left wing judges to change their minds as well).
jl
@Baud: I read that was a PA decision, they weren’t ordered to do it by any court. I think it was done by state and local officials to avoid vote counting problems in case a corrupt or insane court decision comes down.
May be a very good thing election mechanics are run at local level, and secretaries of state are chosen by direct popular election in almost all of the swing states. Those people have their own priorities which outweigh a Trump win.
Probably guided by the election official’s prayer: Oh Lord, I don’t care who wins, just don’t let it be close.
The state and local officials are the ones that have to work their asses off, and endure the horror of a botched election count. I’m hoping that among even the local GOPer election officials, Trump winning is third priority, after avoiding disaster following election day, and for those devoted GOPers, maybe rescuing GOP from the disaster that Trump has been (I hope against hope on that last)
@frosty: I’m game. If anyone knows for sure whether this was a PA or a court decision, please let us know.
The Moar You Know
@Omnes Omnibus: pretty sure yes
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@FlyingToaster: I know a lot of people here don’t like Matt Yglesias, and I am ambivalent, but I am glad he was a witness to Jared’s self-proclaimed entrepreneur-ship
Yglesias has snarked about Kushner making a show of calling plumbers on his cell phone, running his “business” on campus. I don’t know how literally that should be taken
hueyplong
@Kay: Haven’t you said that Iowa is one of those places that finishes its count early?
In other words, if other swing states are fuzzy, could Iowa be the state that tells us to calm down on election night?
Gravenstone
@different-church-lady: Well, they claim that women gravitate towards men who remind them of their fathers. So maybe Ivanka got a finders fee?
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
So, it’s not an agreement that’s binding?
Typically, late-arriving ballots skew Democratic. PA is fairly close. I don’t want to stake our chances on late-arriving ballots being counted
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@Spanky: and the anniversary of Black Tuesday is tomorrow. What could go wrong.
Baud
@jl:
Here’s the tough situation. If Biden wins without the segregated ballots, do the Dems still insist that all the ballots be counted. You hate to take any risk, but it’s a bad look for us.
I hope it’s enough of a national landslide to make the whole thing moot.
jl
Besides the election official’s prayer, they have to be able to do arithmetic, algebra, and have experience doing logistics in the real world. So I wonder how many of the local election officials can be hard core Trumpsters.
But, I admit that I am doing some optimistic hoping here.
Edit: for example, how many local election officials make plans to get the ballots out, but forget to do planning for when they come back? We have a recent example of Trumpsters not thinking that far ahead.
frosty
@Baud: @jl: Well, I don’t know any more about it than I’ve read in the comments. Both my sons’ ballots are in and we’re voting in person on Tuesday, so our 4 votes won’t be an issue.
Just another thing to fret about I guess. I should put down the keyboard and go make dinner. I actually thawed something in time today!
piratedan
In case anyone needs to get a Kamala fix… here’s the facebook feed of her speaking in Tucson today, socially distant, with car horn honking punctuating their happiness to see her… If I wasn’t working, I would have been there…
no idea on how well this will translate but some Kamala is better than rumor of Kamala…
https://www.facebook.com/LarryBodine4601/videos/1388229874719115/
Baud
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Right now, it’s voluntary, although basically under threat of court order.
Kay
@hueyplong:
They do. But there’s several states that could come in reasonably “early” that would shut Trump down.
In fact, there are more and more of them.
jl
@Baud: I think that is a practical issue to be made on a case by case basis. D election lawyers have to consider chance of an insane and malfeasant (on its face, going by his last stunt) Kavanaugh move by the courts that set a dangerous precedent.
If result unlikely to be overturned, I think they can offer legit reasons for whatever they decide on a state by state basis.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Could the court order be ignored?
Steeplejack
@The Eccentric:
I think you made a mistake with your PayPal link. It resolves to
which takes me to my profile, not yours.
Steeplejack
@Omnes Omnibus:
Willing to assume it’s not the same, for the moment. Not the usual J.P. approach.
But it’s moot, as the link is screwed up.
Martin
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): Because the legislature choose the electors to the electoral college. They aren’t agreeing to it so much as they are choosing a path that doesn’t spoil the entire election (which automatically defers to the state legislature), that allows them to show a different result, and use that to convince Congress to side with their view of things.
Simply put, USSC has decided that if a state supreme court uses the state constitution to invalidate a state legislature decision, that ruling is presumed to be invalid. Because USSC keeps pulling these federal rulings over state decisions, the PA Gov/SOS are arranging their own effort to use Congress to invalidate USSC.
Kay
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
What states usually do, and all did before Kavanaugh and Barrett came along threatening voters, is take the total ballots and the provisionals or later counted and compare to the margin. If the win margin is bigger than the total uncounted votes then counting them won’t change the result so they can award the state to the victor and count later. If Biden wins by 100k and there are only 80k votes out he won.
Baud
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
That’s something you don’t want to do now. It might come to that if the court does something crazy after election day.
Frank Wilhoit
@jl: No one has any business trying to use historical parallels.
Martin
@Baud: They might. There’s the issue of downballot races to consider. Dems will also make the argument that virtually all military ballots arrive after the deadline and always have, and are Republicans really arguing that deployed military should have their vote denied as a regular course of action?
Gravenstone
@Baud: Or hope that the segregated ballots are less than Biden’s lead, which again makes them moot.
Tim C.
@gene108: Go outside, spin around three times and spit!
jl
@Frank Wilhoit: I was comparing two models, one uses rules of thumb, one is, from a statistical view, more reliably predictivly validated.
Please note that I said the Economist model looks at the whole distribution of past state versus national results, it doesn’t take some average and just use that. If those correlations are too unstable to change the mean prediction much, they at least give some empirical basis for estimating how uncertain the forecast is.
Martin
Two weeks ago I said it was wild that Louisiana was being hit with a major hurricane and nobody had the bandwidth to cover it. Same thing is happening at this moment.
Baud
@Gravenstone:
For the president. There are other races, but that wouldn’t be a Supreme Court issue.
debbie
@prostratedragon:
Christian Bale should sue.
J R in WV
@Steeplejack:
Gosh!
But IT worked OK for Him!!! What could be wrong???
Perhaps the guy isn’t very bright. Seems to be a nearly direct copy of that guy, you know who I mean…… ;~!)
Joy in FL
@The Eccentric: I will gladly contribute a little. But as Steeplejack said in comment #66, the link doesn’t send me to your paypal. I’ll check later tonight for a link that works.
However, I don’t need a link to send you good thoughts and kind, resourceful energy.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I do not believe so. I checked the email address, and there was one comment from this person in 2017, with this email address and this nym.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): No reason to have a fight before it’s necessary.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@Martin: Louisiana is not a swing state. Since all the science about climate change suggests that place inevitably is going to go under water, this might mean that whatever happens there can’t matter.
Ken
Andrew Jackson says yes.
I think one of the limits the court works under is that the other two branches have never been pushed into saying “About that Marbury vs. Madison decision….” The Constitution does explicitly say that Congress can make regulations and exceptions to the court’s appellate jurisdiction.
hilts
Jared is a vacuous, preening doofus. I look forward to his indictment after Trump gets dumped next week.
Uncle Cosmo
@mrmoshpotato: His face looks like a skin graft from a lily-white eight-month-old’s ass.
Uncle Cosmo
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I’ve been following Time Ghost’s World War 2 Week by Week on YouTube, and they repeatedly make the point that no matter how many armies and millions of prisoners the Wehrmacht took in the initial assault, Barbarossa was a logistical disaster from the gitgo, doomed unless the Soviet leadership collapsed – which wasn’t going to happen, since Stalin was at least as ruthless and monomaniacal as he.
Uncle Cosmo
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.): I, Doughbot – ?
Uncle Cosmo
@Kay: Here’s the problem with that approach: There are a lot more items (lower offices, ballot questions, referenda, initiatives, what have you) on the ballot than just the Presidency. If a candidate for some lower office is losing by less than the number of mailed ballots received post-election-day (within the period allowed by state law) in that district, you have to believe s/he will file suit to have those ballots counted – and it would be utterly stupid not to process and record totals for every ballot line.
(ETA: Martin at #72 made this point more clearly than I … dammit…)