International market indicators…
My favorite part of this is watching Trump’s face drop when he realizes Bibi is not gonna endorse his campaign line. https://t.co/V1oqYTUjY2
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) October 23, 2020
it’s worth considering that trump is so deep into his extremely online fox news cinematic universe that he really and truly believes he’s up ten points right now and the first time he’s considered actually losing will be election night watching teevee along with the rest of us
— kilgore trout, biden wi-fi switchman (@KT_So_It_Goes) October 23, 2020
Naaaaah…
“Finger-pointing is a common feature of campaigns that think they’re losing, but it's happening at an uncommon level in this campaign. Shifting responsibility has been a staple of the Trump presidency — and his lieutenants are now following suit.” https://t.co/eeo36qrfgn
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) October 24, 2020
… Top Trump advisers insist they remain confident, with campaign manager Bill Stepien saying privately the president still has a path to victory…
But senior Republicans say a culture of paranoia has developed in the waning days of the race, with fears mounting that they will be the targets of post-election attacks if Trump loses, which could damage their careers going forward.
“I haven’t worked for Donald Trump since 2015, but I guess nothing changes,” said Sam Nunberg, a former Trump political adviser.
Shaaade… enfreude!
Much of the blame is being directed at Parscale, who was ousted as campaign manager in July amid mounting questions over his stewardship of the reelection effort…
Parscale’s defenders say he’s being unfairly scapegoated. Every spending decision he made, including the Super Bowl ad, had sign-off from Trump’s top lieutenants, and sometimes the president himself, they said. Much of Parscale’s early spending was devoted to finding new online donors, his backers say.
The former campaign manager felt compelled to invest heavily in advertising in May and June because Trump’s poll numbers were sliding amid the onset of the pandemic. With little backup from the primary pro-Trump outside group, America First Action, Parscale felt the need to hit the airwaves. The plan, Parscale allies said, had the support of the president and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner…
It’s not just Parscale getting blamed for Trump’s predicament. Some Republican officials are also angry at Meadows for how he managed Trump’s hospitalization. The chief of staff undercut the White House messaging when he told reporters early on that Trump was “still not on a clear path to a full recovery.”
The statement initiated a damaging news cycle, forcing the administration to assure the nation that Trump was in stable condition.
Officials also blame Meadows for not doing more to rein in Trump. Among the complaints: That he should have tried to stop Trump from giving Bob Woodward practically unfettered access as the pandemic intensified, and that he erred in encouraging Trump to hold in-person rallies. Others question why Meadows has so far failed to deliver in congressional negotiations on a coronavirus relief package and worry the inability to get checks to voters could damage the president in the election.
But others argue that it’s folly to think that Meadows — or anyone else — could have put guardrails on Trump…
The dissension has spilled into the final days of the race. In theory, the campaign and RNC are supposed to be working in tandem. But senior Republicans have said the campaign’s coordination with the RNC broke down after Parscale’s departure, with little communication between the two organizations.
Campaign officials insist things have recently improved and that the breakdown wasn’t either side’s fault…
Let’s not argue about ‘oo killed ‘oo!
So, with the debates now over and the Hunter Biden story being debunked by a Rupert Murdoch outlet, Trump's last remaining hope for a rebound would seem to require JFK Jr. coming back to life and replacing Pence on the ticket.
— Daily Trix (@DailyTrix) October 23, 2020
Baud
His last remaining hope is the seductiveness of hate.
VeniceRiley
The look on the guy with the GALLEY badge is everything.
raven
Xin Loi MOFO!
tom
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you’re always afraid
Step out of line the men come
And take you away
Trumpworld in a nutshell
Zzyzx
Lunchtime poll: If you have the option of knowing right now the election results but you can’t change them, bet on them, and no one will believe you if you tell them, would you do it?
Baud
@Zzyzx:
Sure. Why not?
debbie
So I guess Parscale stealing millions from the campaign was just fake news?
Chetan Murthy
@VeniceRiley: Wait, do you mean the security guy behind Parscale? with the “RALLY” badge? Yeah, he seems …. unexcited to be there. Not really rallyin’.
Zzyzx
@Baud: the case against would be another 2016 situation but this time you see it play out and couldn’t prevent it. And hell yeah, I’d do it. I hate uncertainty.
Baud
@Zzyzx:
I couldn’t have prevented it last time even if I knew about it.
HumboldtBlue
It’s asshole Trump everywhere.
Here’s a video of a puppy taking on a pittie. Pretty sure pupper gets three points for a takedown and those three straight nose boops were point-winners as well.
Delk
LOL! That train already left the station
Dorothy A. Winsor
@HumboldtBlue: That pittie is patient!
Ken
Has there been a report of how much these peace deals are costing the US? I’m assuming they’re like the Egypt-Israel deal in that regard. I wouldn’t much mind paying Sudan, though I doubt the money will go to the people that need it, but payments to the emirates would be irksome.
Pete Downunder
As the saying goes, even paranoids have enemies. Is it even paranoia if they are really after you? I am looking forward (hopefully) to massive underbussing.
p.a.
Bibi? Bibi? Buddy? Pal…
Bibi thought bubble: “Hey I have my own problems asshole…”
Ohio Mom
I wouldn’t want to know the results in advance.
If it’s bad news, I would have robbed myself of a week of relative happiness, since I would be plunged into immediate despondency sooner than I would have otherwise.
If it’s good news, my joy will be diminished because I will not be able to share it with anyone else.
VeniceRiley
@Chetan Murthy: *gets glasses out* RALLY. Yeah.
The early vote among 18-29 in FLA and some battlegrounds is lit. Those numbers are giving me confidence.
L85NJGT
Safe bet that McConnell is saying the thing about Trump.
FTFNYT has a story that AOC’s opponent is doing serious coin – GOP donors are going all in on symbolic futility.
Alison Rose
Lisa Murkowski would just like to remind us all that she’s a worthless piece of garbage just like the R after her name indicates.
Also she maybe has brain damage because “grace, skill and humility”??? “a qualified nominee”?????????
Fuck you, Lisa.
(Also, WTF with no Oxford comma, NYT?)
Keith P.
I’ve got some friends who are convinced Trump wins by landslide. They think that Biden’s oil industry comment will lose him Pennsylvania. Also, nobody they know would answer the polls, so they’re skewed.
Achrachno
@debbie:
And what’s become of Parscale? No word about him in almost a month, at least not that I’m aware of. Have the Trumpians got him sequestered somewhere so he can’t talk to authorities to reporters before the election? Can he still be in the hospital after all this time? Is he jailed?
Baud
@L85NJGT:
They are undertaxed.
lofgren
I’m starting to think that Trump isn’t acting like a buffoon in order to distract the media from the cannibal child molester cult that Q has been working to expose in secret.
Maybe he’s actually just a buffoon.
Nah, that can’t be it. He’s just waiting until the week before the election to unleash “the storm” because he likes a dramatic climax.
Brachiator
@Zzyzx:
No. The myth of Cassandra is a tragedy. Why would I want to wish it on myself?
I am paying less and less attention to stories and commentary about the polls and polling. There is this weird fetish for wanting to know the results of everything in advance. People want to know, as though this preview or right guessing will make a difference or confer power.
We will all know soon enough.
lofgren
@Zzyzx: No rule saying that I can’t personally prepare for them by fleeing the country, so advantage is still to me to know them.
LurkerNoLonger
@Alison Rose: Republicans are all bad. It’s pretty amazing that there’s not a good one among the bunch.
Baud
@LurkerNoLonger:
I’d start an #ARAB hashtag, but it would be misconstrued.
KenK
@Zzyzx: @#5. absolutely
John Revolta
@L85NJGT: I wouldn’t read much into this. It’s a fundraiser. What’s he gonna say? “We’re doing great, hold onto your bucks guys”?
Aleta
Obama in Miami, 10 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zChq3myIOWo
Mike in NC
They could turn this thing around in 24 hours by bringing back Brad Parscale.
Kathleen
I know many Dems don’t like Lincoln Project, but I have to admit I LOL’d when I saw Rick Wilson refer to Trump as “Cokeahantus”.
JMG
If McConnell thought Trump was going to win Barrett would not be confirmed before the election.
Matt McIrvin
@John Revolta: Yeah, Biden’s fundraising messages are all about how their internal polling shows a scary close race, and Trump is raking in record bucks, and then they cherry-pick the polls where Trump is winning Arizona by four points. It’s what fundraisers do–if you just listen to the fundraising messages it’s like listening to the other party’s fans.
jl
” and his lieutenants are now following suit.”
Now?
Seems to me this started, at the latest, a year into the new administration. IMHO, main difference now is that after a few people got bounced after talking to people like Wolfe and getting IDd, then sources started insisting on deep cover. Now, they are getting more transparent about it. Some to preserve their reputation so they have some hope of staying in same general line of work after 2020, some to avoid the slammer, and some who are capable of shame, to avoid too much public shame.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
Nah. His best remaining hope is cheating on a massive scale.
raven
He may talk like an idiot. . .
NotMax
No excrement, Sherlock. When have the high panjandrums in a campaign ever given a direct “We’re toast” quote to reporters before the voting is over?
@Zzyzx
you mean you don’t? Doesn’t everyone (but we can’t disclose details)?
:)
@Mike in NC
Jared will fix it.
//
Wag
@Kathleen:
I’m a Dem, and I deeply appreciate the work the Lincoln Project is doing, and am willing to work with them if trump goes down in defeat.
jl
@Alison Rose: I was going to make a comment on that. Murkowski Grahams out. IIRC she was a ‘no’ on Kavanaugh. What’s the difference? No gut level revulsion of blatant lying and evidence of Kavanaugh’s personal unfitness for the position?
Maybe McConnell has ditched Trump and is hunkering down for another four years of pure obstruction. So, he wants to enforce completely unified Senate GOP? Or thinks he can demonstrate feats of strength to inspire die hard GOPer voters?
Whatever it is it, it is vile.
And I suggest a new verb ‘to Graham’ when a person bald face lies and breaks a promise in politics. Could add some variations to it: ‘to Graham out,’ ‘to Graham cracker,’ ‘Grahaming’, etc.
L85NJGT
@raven:
HumboldtBlue
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Indeed.
Keith P.
@jl: How about “the Triple Lindsey”? I need to retcon three aspects to it, like “1) Making a principled statement, 2) Breaking the principle, 3) Blaming Democrats”
Amir Khalid
I presume JFK Jr was a Democrat. I can imagine Trump preferring a dead man to Pence as running mate, but why a dead Democrat?
The Moar You Know
@Zzyzx: Cruel. Can’t even wet my beak with some wagers? Inclined to decline based on that alone.
But…can I act on that knowledge?
L85NJGT
@Amir Khalid:
It’s a Q-anon joke.
jl
@Wag: I’ve curious enough to listen to a number of interviews with the leads of the Lincoln Project. I don’t think enough of them want to build a coalition. Some of have said flatly they don’t see enough in common with Democrats, partly because they foresee young Democrats driving the party too far in a progressive direction, and not much anyone can do about it.
Too many of them have the goal of burning down the current GOP to ground and rebuilding, which they admit may take the rest of their lives.
Maybe if they thought the center-right segment of corporate Democrats will be able to hang on to a larger influence, it would be different. Maybe they are politically savvy enough to realize that their conversion came too late, and their role in, for some of them up to 4 decades, in sleazy wedge politics, will mean that they will never really be welcome or have a meaningful role in policy formation.
At any rate, for various reasons, they aren’t banking on a home inside the Dem tent. IMHO.
Better to work with them to defeat Trump, have a little toast with the beverage of our respective choice, and then go are separate ways. If it becomes an issue, that is what I am going to write my CA Dem Congresscritters and a Dem administration.
Baud
@Amir Khalid:
Unity government against child sex rings.
Are you unfamiliar with the tenets of the Q?
Zzyzx
@The Moar You Know: I didn’t say no, so I guess so.
jl
@Keith P.: Is there a sinister step in the Lindsey Hop we could use? I can dance it a little. I don’t know of a move where you signal you’re going one way, then reverse direction suddenly and clock your partner down to the floor.
jl
@Baud: The whole notion of pantsless leadership needs to be reformed. It is in deep disrepute now. Plenty of work for Baud 2620!!! Might take that long. Good thing you are virtual.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@VeniceRiley:
Republicans crash Florida early vote, eating into Democrats’ lead
Politico. I hardly think half a percentage point matters, though. Biden is turning out older high propensity voters out at higher rates than the GOP is right now. I have no idea what the GOP is so overjoyed about in FL
Kathleen
@Wag: I agree with you. They’re bluntly saying what needs to be said and the media would excoriate Biden campaign or Democratic Party surrogates if either of those entities ran LP type ads. I think there are many Democrats who wouldn’t like it either.
VeniceRiley
yeah, Rick wilson just teased a news drop and it turned out it was just a firey sick burn letter to Jared and Ivanka. Lincoln Project is already getting self reverential and taking their eye off the ball.
Wag
@jl: I don’t disagree with much of what you said, and I agree that many of the people in the Lincoln project has been difficult adversaries for many years. That said, we find ourselves with a common enemy, and if they succeed in burning down the republican party, and then work to try and rebuild a new party, that project may take many years, and in the meantime, Democrats will hopefully have unfettered ability to correct the wrongs of many decades of GOP mismanagement and lies.
HumboldtBlue
@jl:
Someone tweeted, “how much money would you donate to Project Lincoln to keep the Ivanka Kushner ad up in Times Square for as long as possible” and my answer was not a damn penny.
These are the same ratfuckers who got us to Trump in the first place and all their mewling about how the GOP has lost its way is absolute nonsense, they drove the fucking car into the ditch.
If Biden wins they’ll go right back to being the GOP ratfuckers they have always been and always will be. They can help elect Biden, after that they can fucking fuck off.
Baud
Nevermind
zhena gogolia
@Aleta:
Oh, that is putting a smile on my face that won’t go away.
Roger Moore
@jl:
I don’t honestly mind that, especially if they’re willing to do a thorough job of burning the current GOP down before starting the rebuilding. There are legitimate problems with having one party stay in control for too long, and even if there weren’t the Democrats would probably stumble at some point and let whatever right wing party is out there take over. Far better for the party waiting for that stumble to be a sane one that’s committed to multi-party democracy than a bunch of crazies and fascists.
raven
@HumboldtBlue: Life is hard isn’t it?
Crashman06
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): I do not like this!
jl
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): I don’t think we should pay all that much attention to what these operatives say. I’d be interested in seeing where ad and GOTV money is going as well as appearances.
There does appear to be a substantial late breaking rise of Trump support in some swing states: Florida, Georgia, Ohio in particular. Much smaller or non-existent in other swing states.
Anyway, we can send money. Maybe DougJ can put up a Florida post.
Also, I’d like to know what ‘older’ means? Elderly? If so, is that good or bad from Trump? May be hard to say this election.
Edit: and also note some social engineering in what these hacks say, particularly GOP hacks. Did Florida break our hearts in 2012? No. And it was a narrow election. They BS to discourage their opponents, maybe not so much the professionals, but local support and small donors.
West of the Rockies
There was a big ass (dumb ass) Trump rally in town today, a mile of pick-em up trucks with flags and morons galore. It was disheartening. My 19-year-old daughter was flipped off over her rainbow flag sticker.
I hope on November 4th they’re all suicidal.
HumboldtBlue
@raven:
What’s your point?
Kay
They think they can win it or they wouldn’t be going there the last week. One of the best parts of this election has been watching Team Trump plug all these leaks. Last week they were like “oh no, North Carolina isn’t safe!” and next week they’re going to have to worry about Georgia :)
raven
@HumboldtBlue: What’s yours? You wouldn’t give them some money if asked by some imaginary people but you’ll take their help but fuck em?
Viva BrisVegas
@L85NJGT:
It’s only a joke outside of Qanon. Inside Qanon it’s deadly serious.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
No. He got impeached because he knew he would lose to Biden so he desperately tried to manufacture a smear against him.
Omnes Omnibus
@HumboldtBlue: I think he is saying that life is hard, but I may have missed something.
Achrachno
@Mike in NC:
I don’t know, it may be that Brad Parscale sleeps with the fishes. Having that much dirt on the Trump crime family is probably dangerous.
lamh36
Saw somewhere where a conservative voter basically said once ole girl is confirmed for SCOTUS there conscious will be clear to either not vote for Trump or not vote for POTUS at all.
They got the radical conservative they wanted on the bench to help strike down liberal laws so they no longer need chump or any of the folks like Lindsey Graham.
That would explain why folks like Lou Dobbs feel comfortable telling Fox News viewers that Lindsey ain’t shit. They no longer need him
Subsole
@jl:
Ah, Lindsay Graham: The poor man’s Jeff Flake.
Subsole
@Amir Khalid: Crossover appeal? I’unno.
Omnes Omnibus
@Achrachno: Given Trump Co. competence, one of Brad’s neighbor’s might be sleeping with the fishes instead.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: Trying to watch a football game, a baseball game a give pithy comments is hard too!
NickM
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: I think he knows too. He’s trying to distance himself from the Senate losers. Bibi didn’t give him love. He’s begging suburban women to like him. He’s already making excuses. He knows.
Kay
@lamh36:
They’re up to something with that, though. Trump told donors he can’t save the GOP senate, which is just a bizarre thing to say. He’s not supposed to be competing with them.
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: A man’s gotta know his limitations.
HumboldtBlue
@raven:
Yeah, if they want to help elect Biden, fine, they’re more than welcome, but they’re still the same ratfuckers who helped cause Clinton’s loss and how poisonous our political discourse has become so foul and twisted.
So when the elections over they can fuck off, that seems pretty easy to understand.
Achrachno
@Kay: If electoral-vote.com is right, the Trump people need to be worrying about Texas. For the last two days it’s been leaning weakly Dem.
NotMax
@Goku (Amerikan Baka)
Oh for corn’s sake. This type of boilerplate horse race bulletin baiting appears every election. On top of that, it’s Politico. Ginning up tension is what they do. Take it with a giant size grain of sea salt.
Certainly don’t get frazzled over it.
raven
@HumboldtBlue: And you think you are the only one who knows this information, right?
different-church-lady
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): Winning a game in the fourth quarter is a strategy that seldom works anywhere outside of baskteball.
hueyplong
@NotMax: Agree with your theory that if you allow yourself to be rendered sleepless by something in Politico, it’s on you.
schrodingers_cat
@Keith P.: Is is David Brooks your friend because this is exactly what he was saying yesterday on the Snooze hour
HumboldtBlue
@raven:
Yup. You nailed it. Ya got me.
Matt McIrvin
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): That article is almost certainly the origin of the claims that had Punchy worried in the other thread. You’ll notice that they’re taking fairly obvious stuff and talking it up as a dramatic shift in the opening sentences.
Aleta
Letter from Lincoln Project lawyer to Marc Kasowitz, who has a history of ineffective threats on behalf of Trump. He also defended Trump in the Trump University fraud case and Bill O’Reilly when he tried to stay at Fox after sexual harassment claims by many women.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
They all get faxed the same talking points.
L85NJGT
@Omnes Omnibus:
Somebody has to watch the WS – the ratings have been abysmal.
Kay
@Achrachno:
They can’t worry about Texas. They have too many other states to worry about. Trump is vulnerable in like 7 states and he absolutely needs most of them. Obviously he needs Texas too but they have too many swing states to add Texas. That would make it impossible.
Georgia would be sweet because Democrats think Abrams won it and it was stolen. Sherrod Brown says it straight out.
Bill Arnold
I admire “fox news cinematic universe” – nice and tight. Who used it first?
ETA: https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Fox%20News%20Cinematic%20Universe
NotMax
@different-church-lady
Dolt 45’s team is so stupendous they’ll rally in the sixth quarter.
“Hey! Where’d everybody go?”
//
raven
@L85NJGT: I got it on the small screen.
raven
Mooookkkiiiieeee.
Sab
@Wag: We will see.
I remember when people worked across party lines. It wasn’t Democrats that stopped doing that. Remember the DLC?
Steve Schmidt and his ilk have been perfectly happy to demonize us for a generation. It will take quite a lot of time and effort on their part before I even think about trusting or funding any of them.
NotMax
@Matt McIrvin
As well as operating with the baked-in false assumption that 100% of R-registered voters will vote for Dolt 45.
I’d probably not be far off the mark in postulating that if 5%* of R ballots leave that space blank or else vote for Biden then it’s game over in Florida for the Rs.
*Probably a percentage a skootch less but I’m feeling generous.
raven
@Sab: Am I missing some big Lincoln Project Bleg?
Kay
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Biden doesn’t need Florida and Trump absolutely, positively does. Trump also needs North Carolina and Georgia. Needs. Biden does not.
Biden having a bigger map shouldn’t make you worry more- it should make you worry less. Trump has almost no room for error.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@jl:
I suppose it’s good news that it’s largely non-existent in many of the swing states we need to win
Omnes Omnibus
@Wag: @Sab: I am willing to work with them if they want to help clean up the mess they helped make. But they are junior partners in the endeavor, and they don’t get a veto in shit. If they can accept that, I can accept them.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Find out what brand of whiskey The Lincoln Project drinks and send a case of it to all Democratic operatives.
NotMax
@Goku (Amerikan Baka)
“Substantial” is doing some mightily strenuous lifting in that sentence.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): No, I would worry if I were you.
Kay
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
When Democrats were way ahead in early vote the polling people said “well, they’re just cannibalizing their election day vote and the Trump election day voters will swamp them”.
Now that Republicans are catching up in early vote that means they win? What happened to “cannibalizing”?
Matt McIrvin
@NotMax: Keep in mind also, they’re talking about Florida. A state Biden doesn’t actually need, but Trump really does.
Yutsano
@Omnes Omnibus:
…
Dammit OO…
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@NotMax:
I mean, Trump still has like a 90% approval rating among self-identified Republicans. It’s been noted several times here that Republicans have become a cult.
Now, I don’t think we need FL to win. And it’s true Biden has a large map with many possibilities. I even noted I was skeptical of the Politico article myself in the comment you replied to
debbie
@jl:
I’d be interested in the source. From what I’ve read and seen, Trump started out ahead, but now he and Joe are within a couple of points of each other. I saw a Rasmussen poll yesterday that had Biden up by 2 and a Fox poll (also yesterday) that had Trump up by 2.
Baud
The last thing I’m worried about is people voting. If we lose on the votes, we’ll at least get some clarity about the state of this country.
TS (the original)
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Do you go looking for pro GOP articles in the media so you can worry about them?
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
Could you not do that? I’m not that worried yet
Kay
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Goku it’s just that some of it ridiculous. Obama has to “rescue” Biden in Florida?
OK- this is where Pence is going:
Speaking of rescues :)
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@TS (the original):
No, it’s my mother who reads this shit a lot. She calls them her “stories”. Reads the shit that comes across the AOL website. Doesn’t pay any attention to the source or the byline. Mentioned it to me tonight and I looked it up. I’m skeptical of the claims it makes, as I noted in my post
Baud
In fairness, the Politico article at least referred to Republicans as Republicans rather than independents unsure about Biden.
randy khan
@Ken:
It sounds like what Sudan got out of the deal is as follows:
*No longer being treated as a state supporter of terrorism (no $ cost, but obviously hugely valuable to Sudan)
*It has to pay $335 million in reparations to families of Americans who were killed in terrorist attacks in Sudan, which apparently is a good deal for Sudan.
Also, the deal has to be ratified by the as-yet-not-seated Sudanese parliament, so it’s not actually done yet.
Sab
@Kay: :)
Kay
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Everyone is anxious. Because we don’t know. We don’t know these unknowns :)
NotMax
Still can’t quite get over the tweet from a Louisiana Congressperson which Olbermann shared, verbatim, on Friday to close out his own little digest.
That people such as Higgins are vapidly unaware of how absolutely looney tunes they come across is a continuing amazement.
Another Scott
@Ken: I haven’t paid too much attention, but my understanding is that these “deals” are related to arms sales. E.g. we can’t sell weapons to Sudan while they’re on the “terrorist” list.
It’s (mostly) all about rewarding Donnie’s donors.
And, as usual, Donnie’s people don’t care about the consequences elsewhere. AlJazeera:
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
raven
Rescue me.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: I also think that in a marginally fair election, we win.
Kay
@Sab:
South Carolina is to rescue Lindsey, but they do absolutely need NC.
Delk
Looks like we are going to go over this every day until the third.
Crashman06
@Kay: You may be my favorite commenter on this site. You’re so level headed and your insight into your local government/politics is just so fascinating. Thank you for sharing with us.
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: Great suit and hat. Gotta love houndstooth.
randy khan
@Matt McIrvin:
Pod Save America has talked a couple of times recently about the internal Biden campaign memo that “found its way” to the media (that is, was strategically leaked) about how the race is close. Their take, for what it’s worth – and they are campaign professionals – is that it was a mix of trying to make sure Dems take the race seriously and don’t let up and accurate statements that swing states are closer than the national polling. Now, of course, while they present themselves as providing scoop based on their understanding of campaigns, etc., they also could be doing a bit of underselling of their own to keep people engaged through and until Election Day. (And they talk about the importance of that a lot, so it’s not that farfetched.)
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
That’s cold comfort
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
The odds favor us, but they’re still odds, not guarantees.
@Delk: I’m frustrated beyond belief that people continue to fall for the same media tricks.
Kay
@Crashman06:
Thanks.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: And the band was killer!
Baud
@randy khan:
Makes sense to me. Give Democrats permission to be distracted, and they’ll run run with it.
raven
@Baud: Give em a light and they’ll follow it anywhere. . .
raven
@Baud: I mean Cole with his dried beans and hardtack doesn’t help!
Sab
@raven: Probably not. I just worry and I don’t trust them. I am a long time Stu Stevens fan, but even I recognize that his side was trumpeting values while cheating and stealing and grifting on every thing. My parents were life long Republicans and taught me the values that I have (so I am a Democrat.)
I think Stu is misguided, and will soon forsake his values to return to the herd
ETA Steve Schmidt is an evil man and horrible human being and also extremely funny. While we laugh we should not forget how horrible he is.
debbie
@raven:
Wish I could remember the names of the dances they were doing.
MagdaInBlack
@raven: TY. I needed that, Im still in a mope state over Jerry Jeff.
TS (the original)
Do you have some sources? I’m not seeing it anywhere. Georgia is back to square (538 has it Biden at +0.3 which is basically even), Ohio has always been in trump territory and Florida, is, as usual interesting. With so many early voters, the election day queues in Florida may well be those who trump persuaded not to vote by mail – and they have never had to wait 7 hours to vote. Doubt they will this time around.
raven
@Sab: It just doesn’t seem to me they are asking anyone for help, they are doing it on their own so fuck it and drive on.
jl
Let’s go with horrible disaster dooms day election porn, and Ds lose both FL and OH. By most reasonable definitions there are 7 remaining swing states: AZ, GA, IA, MI, PA, NC, WI. Ds need 3 of those to win. There are 35 combinations of 3 out of 7. For 26 of those combinations, Ds win, for 9 the Rs win,
The Ds just have more paths to victory. I’d just pick any swing state that looks promising, or senate, or congressional races in any swing state that could put it over the top, and contribute, or phone bank, or help someone get their vote in.
Send money or time to the best places you can think of. No point in worry worting about particular state.
Edit: to reduce the chances to give Rs big advantage, if Ds win MI, PA and WI, dodgy court stuff would have to take out two of those states, and if reasonable estimates of how they have improved their voting counting, courts would have to do that within 3 days. But this time, no hanging chads, no butterfly ballots. And hopefully, remaining litigated issues will get settled before election day.
raven
@MagdaInBlack:
“Come on, Jack, them sumbitches are comin’ ” . . “
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Kay:
Honestly, I still feel fairly confident. We’re still doing well in the states that we need to win by decent margins. It would be really nice to get Florida though. I guess the fact that share of young black male voters was concerning to me. I couldn’t help but extrapolate that (and the heavy early in-person GOP turnout) to other states. It’s silly I know
TS (the original)
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Years ago my father and I made a pact not to talk politics. it was the only way our relationship was going to survive. Parents are too important to us to listen to their political views if they favor someone like Donald J. Trump.
Kay
@randy khan:
Not to be an obsessive (ha!) but if you read the states the campaign named, it’s interesting:
I don’t think anyone thought Arizona and NC were a lock, so the “swing state warning memo” was perhaps less of an emergency than it was portrayed. She left out the big three essential states.
jl
@TS (the original): I went to 538 and economist, and was talking just about poll trends, not counting attempts at election steals in courts, or turnout.
So, if you have a different take on the polls and want to factor in other things, that is fine. People can take a look and make up their own minds.
I think you make some good points re non-polling factors to consider.
Edit: one thing I do disagree with is that Ohio has always been in Trump territory. The poll averages have swung back and forth several times recently. IIRC, similar instability in HRC lead in 2016 for two weeks up to election day. So, this is a state where turnout is critical.
MagdaInBlack
@raven: Friend just told me the story of waiting in line at Park West, for a JJW show, 3 cowboy hat wearing guys with guitars came in the side door, one jostled her, stopped, apologized ” Im really sorry ma’am.” It was Jerry Jeff.
TS (the original)
@Kay:
Given that one of our states has postponed removing some of the shut down requirements because there were 7 (seven) people diagnosed with covid today – my brain cannot comprehend how trump and pence are travelling the country spreading the virus wherever they go – when the US has just had their worse day ever for case numbers!
Kay
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
It’s fine to bring it up. We’re all acting like we’re reassuring you but really we’re reassuring ourselves, so you’re playing a crucial role here :)
We wouldn’t have any comments at all if it was all “this is great!” That’s just one comment.
raven
@MagdaInBlack: Awww!
Sab
@raven: Okay with me.
Ohio Mom
I am filing this under Every Cloud has a Silver Lining:
I am so preoccupied by my hour and a half (!) gum surgery scheduled for Tuesday morning, that I have no mental space left for election anxiety.
And after the surgery, I’m expecting to have a couple of days of exhausted misery dedicated to smoothies and ice cream. That will distract me most of the way to Election Day.
Aren’t I a lucky duck?
Aleta
Nevada Latinos for Biden Cabalgata to the polls
sanjeevs
@TS (the original):
https://mobile.twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1320155284325736448
jl
@Kay: I’d be interested in your opinion on this. I’ve been thinking about which critical states would be best bet for Rs to swipe without warning before election day, through court action. IMO, those are MI, PA and WI because those mooks don’t do one damn thing with the ballots until election day or a day or two before. Election Project experts I heard in an interview estimate that their processing has improved enough so that they should get almost all votes counted by 3 days after election day.
So, that is a likely window or court-based election swiping.
All the other swing states except IA start counting mail votes long before election, or validate and process them so they are ready to run through the machines to count just like election day votes. So, Ds may be putting effort into swing states that are likely to put up numbers on election day, and they can head off attempts at fixing (which for those states need to come before election day, or will be too late).
This is like the third of fourth time I’ve typed this into comments, so apologies for my obsession.
Subsole
@MagdaInBlack: Oh Jesus.
Yeah, I have officially had enough of 2020…
Kay
@TS (the original):
My oldest son was coming home for Thanksgiving from Denmark but he called today and he thinks it doesn’t look good for travel to the US. He can come but then he has to get back into Denmark. I’m horribly disappointed and dreading telling my daughter who was really excited to see him and set up this whole 3 day event including renting a house in NY. He hasn’t cancelled yet but I think I have to warn her.
Jinchi
I assume when you include the condition “can’t bet on them”, it implies you can’t take any actions at all (Like packing up for Canada or stocking up on canned goods if you know Trump is going to win).
I don’t see much point in that.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@TS (the original):
She doesn’t. She hates Trump. It’s just her seeing headlines and getting skittish. Both of my parents are like that at times. It’s sometimes hard not to be in that mode when you live in NE Ohio as Democrat
NotMax
@Goku (Amerikan Baka)
You’re young yet. Get enough elections under the belt and the repeated every cycle what-passes-for-journalism kapok becomes as contemporarily inconsequential as the fox trot.
HumboldtBlue
Let this be a warning: Anyone who tells Christmas to go fuck itself can and will be replaced.
Yutsano
@Aleta: Heh. Our big trucks are better than their big trucks. Also: HOSSES AND DONKEYS!!!
Aleta
@Sab: I suspect their thing is “take back the Repub. party from these losers” and toppling Trump is Step 1, along with driving out the worst elements. Step 2 is ads for a better image of inclusion to salvage their own party before it loses more.
Jinchi
@Kay: Sorry to read that, but your son is almost certainly correct. I doubt he’d be able to return to Denmark before Biden’s inauguration.
EDIT: Then again:
EU cases are exploding right now. They’ve recently gotten considerably worse than the US.
Of course, that means he might not be able to leave Denmark, either.
jl
Also I remember that the Election Project experts, in the interview I heard, predicted that after a big initial boom in probably Dem votes, the next development would be panic that the initial boom wasn’t large enough.
I hoped that prediction would fail, but looks like it didn’t.
raven
@jl:never mind
Jinchi
@jl: Dems are going to be stressed until Trump is gone. It’s like playing a single round of Russian roulette. Odds are you’ll survive, but the downside risks are too great.
Kay
@jl:
I’m not as worried about that as you-all are. It has to be really close to steal. MI and WI aren’t going to be that close. PA worries me a little as far as stealing and a smaller margin, but they have a D gov and a really aggressive D AG.
These scenarios are always presented as if the numbers are unknowable, as if Trump can just sashay in and yell “stop the counting!” and chaos ensues, but that isn’t how it works. They know a lot about these states. They know what margin Biden needs in each county and they’ll know a lot with 40% of the vote in. Unless it’s within 1 they’ll know who won. That’s how they call them. They look at the margins in the counties that are in. They don’t count every absentee to call the state – they don’t need 100% in.
I just feel like everyone is acting like we know nothing – like Trump reinvented elections and he didn’t. Unless it’s really close they’re going to be calling these states faster than “3 days after the election”. That’s the worst case.
TS (the original)
@jl: I don’t see 538 seeing any of those states tightening, and I don’t read the economist.
Since the advent of Friedman and trickle down economics, most economists have lost the plot. The adage of land, labor and capital has become capital & capitalists. Land is given to those who are in favor with the capitalists (and the changes to production methods don’t make it as important as it was when most labor in the world was farm labor) and the major reason for the attacks on women and reproduction since the 1980s is to turn women into machines that can produce cheap labour.
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: For better or for worse.
Kay
@Jinchi:
It has been so long. I swear to God he’s picking up a Danish accent. He sounds different.
jl
@TS (the original):
You don’t see any of those states tightening?
I’m quite happy to hear a second opinion that says I am gull of crap and too pessimistic. Thanks. I could very well be wrong.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@jl:
Will this panic really matter?
jl
@Kay: Thanks. You’re the second person, after TS, who’s cheered me up today.
Mike G
trump is so deep into his extremely online fox news cinematic universe that he really and truly believes he’s up ten points right now and the first time he’s considered actually losing will be election night
Shades of Mitt Romney who was so far up his own ass with strident corporate-MBA-positive-thinking-speak he didn’t have a concession speech prepared for when he lost.
jl
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): I think it will matter if the GOTV people panic (unlikely), or rank and file Ds panic, get discouraged, and stop sending money or donating time.
The pundits will pretend to be in panic about a close horse race no matter what, so we should have all been prepared for that.
Hazmat
My dad died a couple of weeks ago. He loved Jerry Jeff and I think identified with him. Although he was a workaholic for most of his life, he admired a free spirit with a DGAF attitude. ❤️❤️
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@jl:
What Kay said. For any recounts, I think it would have to be only a few thousand apart in MI, WISC, etc. I don’t think it will be that close. Hopefully tightening trends don’t continue
Winston
Tried watching Borat. Sorry, just couldn’t.
Yutsano
@Mike G:
Neither will the Oval Office Occupant. Hell ir woudn’t surprise me if he didn’t even have a victory party planned. No masks and no social distancing please.
laura
@Kay: I believe that this is going to happen all accross the US for holidays this year. It’s going to be a quiet somber and lonesome spell and we’re already keenly feeling the loss of contact. I’m so sorry for the conversation you’re considering.
My most fervent hope is that we’re able to celebrate a new administration and start talking about the future in a more positive, more certain way.
Ken
Meanwhile, a new tropical depression has formed in the western Caribbean and the projected course has it striking the Louisiana coast. If that holds it will be the fifth such storm this year (plus or minus two, depending how you count Marco, Sally, and Beta).
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: I’ve been saying you’re “gull of crap” for years.
raven
@Hazmat: Just lettin it go, lettin the high times carry the low, just living my life easy come easy go. . .
Achrachno
@Omnes Omnibus: Your point is well taken, but Parscale has not been seen in a month, and I’ve not heard about any missing neighbors. I like my hypothesis better — more colorful.
NotMax
@Goku (Amerikan Baka)
If there’s one thing Dems are prone to*, it’s making Rapunzel into a s’mores cooker.
*Not all by any means, but the generalization has legs unwobbly enough to stand.
Omnes Omnibus
@jl: Polls tightening matter less as more and more people vote. To the extent that polls are covering people who haven’t voted yet, that pool is getting smaller and smaller. I voted today; my vote is now baked in and my opinion in a poll would be chaff. Don’t drive yourself crazy.
@Goku: You should worry though.
James E Powell
@NotMax:
I’m operating with that assumption. It’s fine if some Rs don’t vote for Trump. Even better if they vote for Biden. But the prudent path is to get our own people to vote & make sure they’re counted.
We’ve got the numbers in the right states. The three-bank shot with less than 100K votes Trump sank in 2016 isn’t there. MI, PA, and WI are all solid for Biden. Add in AZ and possibly NC. The choosing candidates part of the campaign is over. This is the choosing to vote and getting to vote phase.
Achrachno
@Ken: Is there a big picture here that local leaders might be thinking about?
jl
@?BillinGlendaleCA: “gull of crap” We’re apparently both economists, if you are to be believed. So this exchange is just another Bill and JL pot and kettle adventure.
Kay
@laura:
It is sad. My daughter now has a daughter and he’s never met her. Oh, we just have to win. A little more than half this country will be pretty damn depressed if we don’t. It seems like too much to bear on top of everything else.
NotMax
@Winston
Didn’t even try. His shtick does nothing for me. Not just unwatchable, it’s unbearable. Prime, however, is pimping the hell out of the new one.
Ruckus
@Amir Khalid:
You aren’t trying to make sense out of anything rattling around in shitforbrains head are you? That’s a futile process, look how it comes out his mouth, you think there’s any actual thought going on in that cantaloupe of a brain?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: The way to solve your spelling problem is a capital gains tax cut, will even cure the clap!
TS (the original)
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Then you have a good starting point to talk each other up, not down :) Bring up all the good links from BJ.
James E Powell
@Mike G:
It’s amazing how one meaningless act – voting to convict Trump – made so many people forget what a complete a hole Romney is.
Winston
@NotMax: I skipped to the end and watched the Giuliani segment. The rest of it.. smeh. Waste of eyeballs.
Kay
@jl:
There was a Zoom organizing meeting with Sherrod Brown the other night and he said Ohio would be in close to normal time. He was the Secretary of State at one time and he really knows election administration and he isn’t concerned about absentee ballot-induced chaos. He thinks they’ll get them counted in a reasonably timely manner.
NotMax
@James E Powell
Not intending to open up a back and forth, just one jackal’s opinion.
My gut feeling is that Biden has a significantly better and more solid chance of taking FL than AZ. Of course would prefer to see him walk away with both but can’t shake the impression that AZ is the shakier of the two.
James E Powell
@Achrachno:
Have we seen or heard anything from Parscale since the cops put him down on the ground?
Ken
@Achrachno: The wikipedia article for the 2020 hurricane season is full of phrases like “record breaking”, “unusually rapid”, “strongest on record”, “earliest on record”, and similar phrases. So the big picture might be that “new normal” doesn’t just refer to pantsless zoom meetings.
JoyceH
This is probably a bit off-topic, but did anyone else see that press scrum Trump did on his way out to Marine One? Called on one reporter, and when she asked a question, he immediately said, “I can’t hear you with your mask on,” and moved on to someone else. And I am as convinced as I can be that he only called on her so he could say that. What IS it with this guy and masks?!
Achrachno
@TS (the original): And electoral-vote.com has had Biden +1 in TEXAS for the last 2 days. Day before that it was even. Texas! It’s really close in a state the Rs have dominated for years and can’t win without. Chin up everyone!
Redshift
@jl: I’d recommend listening to Preet Bharara’s interview with Mark Elias, the top Democratic election lawyer. Dems aren’t sitting on their hands in any of the swing states, and they have plenty of resources. He’s not all sunshine, but a lot of the doomsday scenarios he finds really implausible because of the balkanized nature of our elections. A lot of stuff is run at the county level, and the state sets rules but state officials can’t just order county officials to do something different. (Plus what Kay said.)
Kay
@James E Powell:
That’s my prediction for the offense that finally puts some Trumpsters in prison. Campaign finance. The idea that the Trumps and their low quality hires had access to a billion dollars without stealing any is ludicrous.
At some point there will be an accounting. Hoo boy.
James E Powell
@NotMax:
What’s wrong with a little back & forth? I neither feel nor express any acrimony.
It’s not a rational, data-based thing. I just cannot bring myself to believe anything good will come from Florida.
Redshift
@JoyceH: According to Mary Trump, he grew up in a household where admitting you were sick was considered a sign of weakness. I think that’s a significant part of this particular aspect of his pathology.
Uncle Cosmo
… the night the White Horse Prophecy turned into the White Horse’s Ass Fallacy …
NotMax
@Winston
Winston’s taste’s good, like a jackal’s should.
;)
Kay
@James E Powell:
You and me both. Stand firm! We will NOT get sucked into this Florida game again! :)
I’m going to be elaborately casual about Florida. “oh, did we win it? That’s nice, I guess”.
patroclus
The sad fact is that the polls are tightening. A little. A week or 2 ago, we were getting these double digit leads in the national polls and the average was about +10; now, it’s more like +8. With a 10-point W, states like Texas were legitimately in play. With an 8 point W, a little less so (unless GOTV is indeed amazing). But an 8 point lead is still good, and anything over 3 is probably an EC W. We’re still in good shape but I was projecting over 370 EC votes (and hoping for over 400); now, I’m back down to 330-350.
What’s happening is that normal Republican voters (about 46% of the electorate) are coming home to Team Republican. The 2nd debate, where Trump did infinitely better, is giving them a reason to. Trump is climbing from 42 or so up to 46. I think that he won’t get quite that far, and that’s his ceiling. So we’re still in good shape, but more tightening seems likely.
Omnes Omnibus
@Redshift: Hell, WI elections are run at the municipal level.
TS (the original)
@jl:
Only thing I see tightening at 538 is the overall Biden lead which has gone from 10.6 down to 9.2. That seems to be based on 1 pollster
IDB/TIPP which Nate records as A/B but it has a GOP bias. I just hope that they are doing this to make trump happy & will be ever so pleased if their results are way way out. Given IBD stands for Investors Business Daily – they are not my kind of people.
I could be 100% out – but no way am I going to think that way until it happens. I’m still punting for trump to lose Texas. I’ll drink the whole bottle by myself if that happens.
Achrachno
@James E Powell: Nope. Vaporized.
Winston
@James E Powell: I know there are a lot of my elderly Republican friends here that are voting against Trump. Have some faith in us this year, and in two years I think we will clean up the governor and legislature.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay:
It’s arguable that COVID-19 reinvented elections. A lot of nascent things in our society got a big unexpected boost–Zoom meetings, food delivery, and voting by mail. So it’s natural to assume that a lot of old assumptions don’t apply.
There’s also a certain amount of fighting the last war. 2008 and 2012 gave people the idea that state poll aggregation websites could call a presidential election with fantastic certainty. 2016 taught us that wasn’t true. But in a sense that was just returning to the conventional wisdom of a couple of decades earlier. Everyone keeps overcorrecting.
I have to admit, my perennial dumping on good news that pisses people off here comes as much from my memory of 2004 as 2016. The way everyone got so excited by the leaked early exit polls, and for a few hours there was all this euphoria that Kerry was really headed for a massive win. Then the deep, deep depression I saw so many people fall into when that wasn’t true–I remember one friend said “America has terminal cancer.” But the 2004 election was genuinely extremely close, far closer than we’re looking at now if the polls hold up.
jl
@Redshift: Thanks. Three cheering responses from wise commenters today. I’ll watch the interview.
Achrachno
@James E Powell: He’s less of one than any of the other R senators, at least in one respect.
Matt McIrvin
@TS (the original): Yeah, I noticed that too. The tightening in Biden’s national lead is because IBD/TIPP started releasing frequent numbers.
TS (the original)
@Kay:
If Biden doesn’t win:
I have no idea how I will react, my world will be so different. I refuse to even contemplate such a thing happening.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
That’s interesting because I wasn’t reading politics online in 2004. I started after 2004. I was really active though- I ran the GOTV for Kerry in my county at my house on election day. Part of my job was going to polling places and calling in midday vote totals- they post them in Ohio but you have to drive to a polling place and get them. I knew by 3 PM we would lose. I sat outside my house not wanting to go in because by then I just loved the volunteers and I was afraid they would be able to read my face.
It looked different on the internet, apparently.
I never knew we were “supposed” to win so I wasn’t as resistant to what looked to me like losing.
Achrachno
@NotMax: Yes, that seems true. Biden +1 in AZ, +3 in FL.
Still, I trust that AZ will come through. We need a senate seat from AZ too.
Matt McIrvin
@Amir Khalid: For some unfathomable reason, the QAnon conspiracy cult latched onto the idea that JFK Jr.’s plane-crash death was faked, and that he was hiding out in Pennsylvania, was now a Trump supporter, and was going to reemerge as some sort of savior-hero. Some of them apparently thought he was Q, the mystery source.
Recently, the idea reemerged as a prediction that at some Trump rally or other, JFK Jr. was going to appear and replace Pence as Trump’s running mate. As these things go, nobody seemed particularly perturbed when it didn’t happen. They remind me of the Millerites.
Dan B
@Kay: You’re a great commenter and to read the heartbreak about the high probability your son won’t be home for Christmas takes your brilliant insights about policy and politics into the personal realm, a link we need to reinforce.
Thanks for being you.
TS (the original)
@Achrachno:
Texas is my fantasy – which I noted at #213 before I had seen your post.
Would love to see Texas win on election day – bellwether states, tipping point states, states with polls within the margin of error would be irrelevant. Everyone in the queues in Florida at midnight could just go home.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: There are people who to this day think the 2004 election was stolen on the basis of those Election Day exit poll leaks that made it look like Kerry was winning. In the Electoral College sense, maybe it was stolen, but I’m pretty sure Kerry didn’t win the popular vote.
randy khan
@Kay:
That certainly fits with the idea that avoiding complacency was the real goal. If the states you’re worrying about are North Carolina and Arizona, well, you know the rest.
Another Scott
@Winston: I just finished watching it. I enjoyed it. But I like cringe-inducing humor at times. ;-)
It’s very sweet in places.
And the ending was quite unexpected by me.
The closing message (“VOTE”) was welcome.
Cheers,
Scott.
randy khan
@Mike G:
2012 was the year of “unskewed” polls, and the story seems to be that Romney’s team bought into the unskewing so they didn’t see the actual results coming. (One effect apparently was to adjust the internal polls, so they weren’t even getting good numbers in the first place.)
Oops.
randy khan
@Achrachno:
I’ve said this before, but if Trump loses Texas it’s going to be a really, really bad night for Republicans. So naturally I love to hear news like this.
randy khan
@patroclus:
National polling average from 538 as of 11:03 p.m. Eastern on Saturday night:
Biden 52
Trump 42.8
9.2 points.
I am reminded of what Thomas Boswell once wrote about Red Sox fans (pre-2004) – if you talked to them about the standings, they’d always say “The Sox were up 8 and now they’re up 2,” when they actually were up 7. He said they couldn’t help it. We’re Democrats and we can’t help it.
Dan B
@Kay: Not just the sadness of separation but for mare than a third of the populace an existential threat. Young black people, immigrants, LGBT people, Jews – the heck, even atheists. Coney Barrett could help erode protections. When does getting the finger for having a rainbow bumper sticker turn into something far more deadly?
Even though it’s unlikely the threat of terror sucks the life out.
Ruckus
@TS (the original):
I live here and in a rather democratic state, CA. And the number of people not wearing masks is high. Although we have in this county, a mask rule when inside. Restaurants do not have inside seating, only outside. The town I live in has outdoor seating along the downtown street that takes up most of the street parking, for several blocks. So it’s not back to life as we knew it, but the number of people who seem to refuse to understand a relatively simple science is baffling. In a rather liberal area. I can’t imagine what a number of other states are like and how they can’t see that massive numbers of people are dying because of herd stupidity. It’s a study in how bad conservative politics really, really is for everyone.
gbbalto
@Hazmat: My condolences – Glad he had an attitude!
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I don’t think it was stolen. I read the Rolling Stone story about how it was stolen and I thought it was nonsense. They do a disservice when they characterize every loss as stolen because there are real efforts to suppress votes and this bullshit with machines changing totals discredit the real thing, which happens out in the open and is deliberate and “legal”.
It’s hard to beat an incumbent and Bush voters really loved him. They thought he was great. By 2006 he was beatable but in 2004 he wasn’t.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: The election is very close in the states where the election is the most close!
Kay
@Dan B:
Agreed. I think she’s a real threat. That campaign she and her supporters ran to use her religion and family to avoid any inquiry or debate is one of the most cynical things I have ever seen.
She succeeded though. There was no debate and no one knows anything about her.
philostopher
@JoyceH:
He’s the modern day Narcissus. His face is so beautiful, he can’t stand for the universe not to look upon it and tremble.
Blargh, but I think it’s at least a large part of it.
patroclus
@randy khan:That’s the 538 average. The RCP average is 50.8 to 42.7 – a margin of 8.1. I think that I relied too heavily in 2016 on poblano’s (Nate’s) numbers. This year, I’m going back to following other sites as well (including the Republican-leaning RCP). They don’t include as many as 538 does, but that might mean they don’t include the more poorly regarded ones either.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: Kerry genuinely almost won, so I think Bush was beatable in 2004. But with the remaining 9/11 juice and a lot of people still supporting the wars, Kerry had a strong headwind to fight.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I think it’s funny that no one ever says Romney supporters got burned by polls in 2012, and they did get burned. Obama outperformed 2012 polls almost everywhere. The Romney people were right to be bitter. It looked better for Romney than it was. It got lost in all the jokes about “unskewing” but the Romney supporters had a real point.
So- it can go either way. Errors run both ways.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I have a different take on 2006 which might be because I wasn’t “as online” as other people. Ohio didn’t flip because of the war. It flipped because the economy was already headed down here and Pelosi really hit on something with “culture of corruption”. Liberals wanted it to be an anti war vote. I don’t think it was.
frosty
@Omnes Omnibus: Thanks Dog they aren’t here. PA has 4,000-odd municipalities.
catclub
@Aleta: Step 3 is finding out all the money guys like Adelman liked what Trump was offering, and the party is out of money.
Ruckus
@JoyceH:
When he’s wearing a mask you have a harder time telling how big an ass he is. Also he’s better than any mask, so he doesn’t need one. Also he’s president and that protects him. Also he’s a major fucking asshole and likes to prove it one a regular daily basis.
opiejeanne
@Ohio Mom:
I understand. I had surgery on my right hand on Thursday and the nerves leading up to the actual event distracted me nicely, focusing on the relief I’d feel when it was over. The thing hurts like a mother now and I’ve used the prescribed painkiller only twice so I could sleep, but I’m hoping to avoid it tonight. I hate that I like the stuff too much.
Ruckus
@Achrachno:
As I’m sure you realize, less of an ass can still be a major ass. And he is. IOW 99% ass is less than 100% ass, but it’s still ass.
randy khan
@patroclus: That’s a very Democratic approach. Like Sawx fans of old, as I said.
Not saying you’re wrong, and it’s certainly more realistic than the MAGA types in my social media feeds who are convinced there’s a massive undercount of Trump votes in every poll, but Eeyore has nothing on loyal Democrats.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: Obama outperformed the numbers, especially nationally, but if you took the aggregated state polls and just predicted EV winners, that predicted the actual 2012 result almost precisely correctly. Freakishly correctly–more correctly than any rational error calculation would predict. To the point that it made people who follow this stuff overconfident. I think that was a fluke.
Matt McIrvin
@randy khan: They’re more extreme than the 2012 unskewers now. Some of them have websites where they post these periodic electoral maps that show Trump crushing Biden (a popular thing is to have him win all the 2016 states plus a few more, like Minnesota). The maps don’t even seem to claim to be based on anything, it’s just “my map for this week”, and they tout them on Twitter.
Ian
@Kathleen:
It shows how little regard the Lincoln Project people have for Native Americans. Mataoaka Tsenacomoco did not give consider any of these people her friends. They may be making fun of Trump, but they are using the original name (Pocahontas) that was offensive to her (not the name part, the part where white people who were not her friends used that name).
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Matt McIrvin: 2004 we all were latching on to the outlying polls. That was one of the reasons why the aggregate polling sites like 538 got to be the big deal because they showed Kerry never had a chance.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I wouldn’t panic, Trump living on borrowed time as it is. His own party is openly defying him and another cheesy lose the popular but win the electoral collage, followed up a second wave of the virus wouldn’t help.
SWMBO
@Mike in NC:
@Achrachno: My son has mental issues. He has threatened to harm himself or others and needed to be hospitalized for meds change. Baker Act provides a means to do that in Florida. It’s involuntary commitment. If a family member commits a person involuntarily, they have 3 days to get a psychiatrist to evaluate the person and determine if commitment is necessary. Then you have about 8-9 days to see a judge about longer than that. My son was in more than once for 18 days. The judge asked the psychiatrist if it was necessary and the doctor said yes until the meds are stabilized. Judge signed off on it without a problem. If the cops bring in an involuntary commitment, they have 3 days to take it before a judge and the judge signs off on 30 days. We may not hear from Parscale until his 30 days are up. And he can be committed again in 30 days for another 30 days. I’m not sure how many times they can do this.