Joe Biden is polling better than any challenger since 1936 | Analysis https://t.co/Uy8s8J3mPs pic.twitter.com/ESJai345vs
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) October 11, 2020
Harry Enten:
… Even if every undecided or current third party voter went to Trump now, he’d still be down about 5 to 6 points nationally. That’s never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point.
Of course, it’s the Electoral College that matters. There are very few universes in which Trump could win the Electoral College, if he were to lose nationally by 5 to 6 points.
New polls out on Sunday from CBS News/YouGov demonstrate that Biden’s above 50% in some key battlegrounds. He leads 52% to 46% in Michigan and Nevada. In Iowa, a state that Trump took by 9 points in 2016 and is not anywhere close to must win for Biden, the race is tied at 49%.
A look under the hood reveals why Biden is in such a strong position. Since the coronavirus pandemic began, Covid-19 has either been, or been within the margin of error of being the nation’s most important problem in Gallup polling.
The three challengers in the polling era (Jimmy Carter in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992) who defeated incumbents have all been trusted more than the incumbent to deal with what Americans thought was the nation’s most important problem. None, however, were trusted by more than 50% of the voters.
Today, Biden has a huge advantage over Trump when it comes to the pandemic. The clear majority (59%) of likely voters in the last CNN poll said Biden would better be able to handle the outbreak. Just 38% said Trump would do a better job than Biden.
As I noted in July, the only issue that really matters is Trump’s handling of the coronavirus. He’s failing in the minds of voters right now.
The result of which is a majority of those same voters favor Biden to be the next president of the United States.
WereBear
38% of the nation. That’s awful.
Major Major Major Major
More hopeful news
germy
Citizen Alan
@WereBear: This is why I remain so depressed about the state of the country. Even if Joe wins decisively and we retake the Senate, I just don’t now how a democracy can survive when 38% of the citizens think a creature like Trump should be the nation’s leader. It’s like more than a third of the nation belongs to the Manson Family.
zhena gogolia
@Citizen Alan:
They were always there. They didn’t just appear four years ago.
Mike G
Scrooge McFuck
Carrot Caligula
Baby Don Duvalier
Agolf Twitler
Pumpkin Pinochet
Hair Honecker
Cheez Whiz Ceausescu
Hairman Mao
Kim Jong Orange
Don-Bedel Bokassa
Needy Amin
Mango Mugabe
Mandarin Mobutu
Saffron Somoza
Slobo-Don Milosevic
Bully Boy Brezhnev
Kent
Luckly that 38% is most likely shrinking as a percentage of the population rather than growing. At least long term.
On the one hand, I can barely take it anymore and just want the next 3-4 weeks to be over.
On the other hand, this feels kind of like we are maybe at the Stalingrad portion of the war and will slowly and relentlessly make up ground from here on out. But there are still a whole lot of battles yet to be fought.
West of the Rockies
@WereBear:
Yes, astounding that 38% believe Trump is doing better with Covid than Biden would do. That 38% represents 100% pure tribalism. They are too invested and stupid to admit they’re wrong and that Trump has the brain power of a concussed potato bug.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Exactly.
Betty
@Citizen Alan: it is sad. My sister who lives in Trump country noted that most of them live in a bubble where they are filled with misinformation from Fox and others. Their minds are poisoned.
Baud
@Citizen Alan:
You keep doing what we’re doing this year. The biggest problem we have is our lack of perseverance.
different-church-lady
NO SLEEP ‘TIL JANUARY!!! GODDAMMIT!!!!
Another Scott
Go Joe!
Kinda relatedly, …
It’s true!
Cheers,
Scott.
A Ghost to Most
@WereBear:
The Crazification Constant is apparently not constant. It’s grown 11% in 16 years.
Ken
So in an alternate universe where coronavirus didn’t make the jump to humans, Trump would quite possibly be cruising to re-election. Um. Hooray for the plague?
Then there’s an entire swatch of bizarre alternate universes where Trump is a completely different person – intelligent, informed, empathetic, sane – and handled the pandemic skillfully and competently. But it probably rains donuts in those worlds.
Immanentize
@different-church-lady: I love it when you speak thus. KEEP IT COMING
debbie
Fourteen tweets in the last two hours. Trump should be off the hook at his rally tonight.
Kathleen
Joe just finished his speech in Cincinnati. I wish I could see the motorcade from my window. Representative Joyce Beatty introduced him. Good speech.
germy
@A Ghost to Most:
All I know is, when I see footage of the trump rallies and various trump fan events, the folks look really young. Some oldsters, but lots and lots of young people.
The joke I see here and other places about his base needing mobility scooters … well, some of them do, but not all.
Uncle Cosmo
It might be worth pointing out that the challenger in 1936 was Republican Governor Alf Landon of Kansas, and the incumbent was Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
The polling, by the Literary Digest magazine, was the first great failure of survey sampling. FDR won the Electoral College by 523 votes to 8. Landon won only Maine and Vermont.** Eighteen months later the magazine folded. Meanwhile, correctly predicting Roosevelt’s re-election jump-started George Gallup’s career as a pollster. (Read all about the debacle and the reasons for it here.)
** Trivia: in those days Maine voted early, in September IIRC, and reported its results in favor of Landon. There was a venerable saying: As Maine goes, so goes the nation. When the national returns were in on Election Night, Jim Farley of FDR’s campaign said sarcastically, As Maine goes, so goes Vermont.
LongHairedWeirdo
@Citizen Alan: Well, that’s the biggest issue.
The Republicans can tell the *fiercest*, most transparent, of lies, and the political press will act as if it must be reasonable to believe as true, because otherwise, they’d be taking the partisan position that the mainstream Republican opinion is wrong. (The proper position to take is “that’s a bad faith argument – it doesn’t even make *sense*. Can you give me a real answer?”)
Global warming should have killed that, but it didn’t. Covid-19 should. Why?
There are three simple, objective facts about Covid-19 that prove that the Republican head up their, er, head in the sand approach is completely, emphatically, unquestioningly, stupid.
1) it’s a novel coronavirus. That means, essentially, everyone can catch it. You *might* have *some* cross-viral immunity, if you’ve had another, semi-similar, coronavirus, but that will not be enough.
2) because it’s a new virus, it can kill *anyone*. Yes, it *mostly* kills old people, overweight people, people with diabetes, heart disease, etc., but *it can kill anyone*. It has killed the very young, the 30-and-under healthy, and yes, many older people with, and without, pre-exising conditions.
3) WE DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG IMMUNITY LASTS. But we do know people have gotten Covid-19 multiple times, so we know it *may* not last even a year.
Anyone who thinks it’s okay that 200+ thousand have died, and maybe a hundred thousand or more might die, when it might come roaring back, full strength, in under a year, is either pure-D evil, or so stupid they should resign in disgrace.
But the political press won’t *say* that. And if they did (here, the alternate spelling is completely appropriate) Faux News would call them horrible names.
cain
@Betty:
This is the other thing we need to start attacking a new telecommunications act. It’s time we put the screws on fox news. They are literally destroying families.
Uncle Cosmo
@Mike G: You can add a few:
Trumplthinskin
Orangecandyass
Chicken Brittle
Covita
Mai Naem mobile
They keep on talking about shy trumpov voters. I wonder if there’s a bunch of shy Biden voters who are bullied by their Trumper buddies but may vote different once they get in the voting booth or fill their ballot alone at home or whatever. Obviously I’m talking about dark red areas. I can’t believe GOPr healthcare workers working directly with COVID19 patients would want to vote for the moron.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Citizen Alan: 36.5% voted against FDR in 1936.
Another Scott
As Helen Branswell says, “vaccine diplomacy”:
The USA is going to be one of the last major countries to get a workable vaccine to her people because after 10+ months we’re still not doing what’s necessary.
Grr…
Joe will do better, but it is going to take time.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kent
How do you figure that? About 11 years ago the tea party crazy were busy getting ready to sweep Dems out of power in the 2010 mid-terms because a black president saved their auto industry jobs and dared to give them affordable health care.
divF
@Uncle Cosmo: Let’s not forget Ms. Cracker’s Papaya Pinochet.
Kent
White people are a shrinking demographic and young uneducated white people are an even faster shrinking demographic.
LongHairedWeirdo
@LongHairedWeirdo: Minor update that I realized I should add, just before the clock hit 0… when I say people have gotten Covid-19 multiple times, I mean “more than once”; I don’t believe anyone’s gotten it more than twice.
And there is still more we don’t know. We don’t know if immunity might protect you from the virus, but might still allow you to be infected enough that you’ll shed the virus (i.e., be infectious, a la Typhoid Mary).
SiubhanDuinne
@germy:
OMG, that is simply brilliant!
Uncle Cosmo
@divF: Hair Furor got left out for some reason. And Trumpolini.
dmsilev
@Uncle Cosmo: Sampling bias. Turns out, in the middle of the Great Depression, having a home phone put you well above average economically, and therefore strongly tilting Republican. It’s one of those object lessons in sanity-checking your system design, right alongside ‘Don’t mix metric and imperial units on your space probe or it might accidentally hit Mars’ and ‘maybe check whether your suspension bridge design is prone to giant resonant vibrations’.
Quinerly
@debbie: I caught a few of them. Wants Justice Kavanaugh to sue “the women” and bitching about the advertisements on Fox.
dmsilev
@Uncle Cosmo: I forget who coined ‘Velveetamort’ but that’s also a good one.
Kay
@Mai Naem mobile:
I live in a dark red area and there are definitely shy Biden voters. I don’t know how many but they’re out there. The whole idea of “shy Trump voters” comes from people who do not know that there are dark red areas in this country wholly controlled by Republicans, or they would have come up with a shy Biden voter theory, and they didn’t.
JPL
@SiubhanDuinne: Fauci has about had it with team trump .
btw In Fulton Cty anyone can vote at senior sites, but most folks don’t know that. Check and see if Gwinett has senior voting centers.
Baud
@germy:
The number of people who will ever attend a political rally is miniscule. Lawn signs are more enlightening and they’re not enlightening.
debbie
Any of you CA guys know about this?
Kay
This is a good explanation of how incredibly dishonest Judge Barrett and the Trump Administration are being on the ACA lawsuit.
Sure Lurkalot
@dmsilev: And there’s the good old reliable Fuckwad.
Kent
Exactly. I lived in TX for over a decade. Plenty of shy Dem voters there. In fact, probably more Dem voters in Texas than any other state in the country except CA and perhaps NY.
You always here this kind of poll unskewing nonsense when one side or the other is losing. Usually the polls are either right, or they are wrong for reasons that people didn’t actually predict.
piratedan
@dmsilev: and President Bone Spurs…
H.E.Wolf
One of the interesting things about authoritarian followers – of whom a significant number are fundamentalist religious believers of various stripes – is that they are indeed always with us… and they are discourage-able.
Fundamentalist participation in civic affairs in the US has cycled up and down over the centuries. When their positions are decisively trounced at the ballot box, their voters tend to drop out for a while. There are learned articles, dissertations, and books written about this.
Let’s not despair just yet. We owe it to the most vulnerable members of our national community to work our butts off: now, and in the year(s) to come.
Reminder: there are hundreds of good people running for office. If you need a quick boost to your spirits, I highly recommend EMILY’s List, which is chock-full of pro-choice women who want to serve our country.
I’m including the link for the state and local candidates; that page has a drop-down menu to see all the other candidates, most of whom have photos and bio blurbs.
https://www.emilyslist.org/pages/entry/state-and-local-candidates
Nicole
@Mai Naem mobile:
I visited my stepmom last weekend, in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania, where I saw oodles of Trump signs, and only one Biden-Harris sign (and it had been vandalized on one side). On our way out, I stopped into a Sheetz, and the 20-something white guy behind the counter said to me, “I like your shirt.” I had completely forgotten I was wearing my Biden-Harris T shirt.
So there are some shy Bidens out there. He made my day, that guy at Sheetz. :)
VOR
@germy: You are right, he attracts assholes and bigots of all ages.
Woodrow/asim
@Kay: I’m in a Trump-rich environment (the Carolinas), and I see active signs for Biden — fewer than Trump, but out here.
I suspect, just based on my Nextdoor, a subtle-yet-real Biden contingent at play, and not just because of Harrison (but he helps, and I’m hearing he’s spreading the wealth down-ballot, as well!)
Ohio Mom
Today I had a low moment when I tried to imagine what my family’s options would be if Trump is re-elected.
I didn’t get anywhere with this train of thought because not only does no other country want my family, we couldn’t afford such a major move, we are too old to start over, and anyway, how can I think of emigrating, I am barely comfortable going to the supermarket these Covid days. If I won’t take a city bus, I’m hardly heading out of the country.
Every now and then I am reminded of how traumatizing Hillary’s loss was to me.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Another Scott:
TBogg’s tweet contains the picture of McEnany that prompted Chuck Grassley’s dotty “10:10” tweet that I quoted this morning.
MazeDancer
This makes me feel a little better.
Also, Roberta McCain, mother of John McCain, died at the age of 108.
Joe’s just warming up, (knock wood)
A Ghost to Most
@Kent: It was created (if memory serves) in 2004, based on the 27% Alan Keyes got against Obama in the Senate race. Jon ? (Kung Fu Monkey)
gwangung
@A Ghost to Most: http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2005/10/lunch-discussions-145-crazification.html
japa21
@Kay: I have to confess I am a little confused by this. Do they even need Barrett to dismantle the ACA. I may be mistaken but the lower court decision invalidated the ACA which means that if the court is at 8, then they would need 5 judges to overrule the lower court. A 4-4 vote would mean the lower court ruling would stand. They don’t need Barrett for the ACA, they need her for any election shenanigans and RvW.
Unless I am wrong about the lower court ruling.
A Ghost to Most
@gwangung: Nice google fu.
Mo Salad
@Uncle Cosmo: Came here to mention this. They are still using that horrible poll for reference 84 years later. The correct answer is either since 1932 or never has anyone held such a lead .
hueyplong
@Mo Salad: There were three main polls in 1936 and the Literary Digest one was the only one that picked Landon. Robert McCormick’s Chicago Tribune did some pretzel action trying to argue that the LD poll was the best one. They also ran a story the day before the election claiming that the FDR admininstration had already put out bids for contracts for American workers to be issued dog tags as part of their impending slavery to the New Deal.
I’ve been reading 1936 and 1948 GOP-loving papers lately to make myself feel better about Nov 3.
Ken
All of them, or some in particular? If he means Christine Ford, I’m pretty sure that Kavanaugh doesn’t want to take that incident anywhere near an actual discovery process.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Kay:
Very good, explanatory thread.
lamh36
ICYMI: Braden’s back and sending words of encouragement to Joe
lamh36
Easy Peasy. Always err on the side that he’s LYING LIAR!
Raven Onthill
This note, which probably should have gone in this thread in the first place (sorry for the rerun):
Should the ACA fall, having had COVID, with its uncertain sequelae, will be a pre-existing condition.
I suspect that part of the reason Barret’s nomination is being rushed through is that, like the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh, her nomination would not stand up to a thorough investigation. She is secretive, but I wonder what a look at her finances would reveal. And – did her adopted Black children come of the Haitian restavek (child labor) system? Or from one of the Haitian group homes (not orphanages) where desperate parents abandon their children?
Omnes Omnibus
@lamh36: Is someone chopping onions?
Sebastian
It’s the virus, stupid.
JustRuss
Good lord, my cat would handle the outbreak better than Trump, because she wouldn’t spend months lying about it. And she has nicer fur. It’s discouraging that 38% of us can’t see through this moronic scammer, including some in my own family.
Seanly
I’m sure I won’t be the first to say this, but we can’t assume this is in the bag. It’s only over when Trump concedes and even then not truly over until Wednesday, January 20th at noon. Good luck to all the Democratic candidates.
Baud
Everyone here is assuming that that 38% is stupid, whereas it’s just as likely they are lying like their hero does.
Bill Arnold
@debbie:
Since the Rs are not winning CA, this may be a national disinformation/influence play amplified by national level gullible media, to make people worry about using ballot boxes and increase the general level of doubt about the election.
Baud
@Seanly:
We don’t need Trump to concede.
Omnes Omnibus
People need to stop worrying about and fixating on the approximately 40% of Americans who are going to vote for Trump. Those people aren’t new. They have always been here. They always will be. Progress is made despite them.
Brent
@Ken: I am not really sure thats true. I mean, its certainly possible but well before covid, Biden was polling ahead.
It would certainly be closer, but a candidate as historically unpopular as he has been for his entire presidency, “cruising” to reelection is a counterfactual I sincerely doubt.
HumboldtBlue
@debbie:
Yes, but I’m not sure how much of a concern it is, the areas they were found are all red and it’s unclear if ballots were stolen.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
[WASHINGTON POST] Undecided Voters Breaking For Biden (link)
The article is full of people who have switched or have been motivated to vote for their first time.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: Seems to be happening here too as well.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL:
Good idea! Have never heard of any, but I’ll check. Thanks!
p.a.
As noted above, a substantial # of the (current) 38% may have always been with us but too apathetic to vote when no one has been seen to represent them. But how many have been ‘turned’ by hate radio, Fox etc? I’m not sure there are legit sociological studies to determine that yet. There are studies on the usefulness of media in the Rwandan genocide, and of course in Nazi Germany.
laura
@Uncle Cosmo: Shitler could be added to the list.
Kent
@japa21: the justification was the dropping of the Individual mandate by the GOP But a Dem Congress and Biden could fix that loophole on Jan 21.
I honesty don’t know how they through out the whole law on other criteria without tossing out Medicare as well. Which would be complete suicide on the part of the GOP.
JMG
The Literary Digest poll was only of its own subscribers. No surprise, people well-to-do enough in the middle of the Depression to subscribe to what was kind of a status signifier magazine skewed heavily Republican.
If this has already been posted, I apologize, but the Times, Post and Wall St. Journal jointly announced they’d no longer go to Trump events on Air Force One, regarding it as a virus hot spot with inadequate safety protocols.
Steeplejack (phone)
@SiubhanDuinne:
Opera alert: The Met is streaming Donizetti for free all week.
Baud
@Kent:
Easy fix if we win the Senate. If not, the people will be screwed.
Humanities Prof
@dmsilev: Yeah, I teach this case in my intro poly sci class.
There were two main problems with the Literary Digest survey. Intentional bias wasn’t one of them; they were genuinely trying to get it right, but this was in an era where there wasn’t a lot yet known about good methodology in survey design.
The first biggie was, as you say, selection bias. They mailed ballots to individuals in telephone directories, people who were registered auto owners, or people whose names appeared on magazine subscriber lists. Of course, this being 1936, anybody who landed in any of those three categories would’ve been pretty high up the socioeconomic ladder, and therefore more likely to lean “R.”
The other issue was that their sample size wound up being smaller than intended. This is weird, because this was one of the largest surveys ever attempted–they mailed out something like 10 million ballots! But only about 2.4 million survey respondents sent them back in, so their response pool was a lot smaller than it was supposed to be.
Here’s another article on it. It’s a pretty fascinating story.
https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html
Sorry if this breaks margins, I’m not very good an inserting links/tweets/twerps.
Uncle Cosmo
@Mo Salad: That poll should only be referenced as a cautionary tale of how badly a survey can be fucked up. Same for “Dewey-beats-Truman” in 1948, when the major survey operations made two yoooooge mistakes (closing up shop too early, and presuming that the large number of undecided when they shut down [something like Dewey 40, Truman 30, undecided 30] would break in the same proportions as the already-decided – both actions missing the massive rush to the Democrats in the last couple of weeks).
jackmac
I posted in “I Voted” along the right rail, but also wanted to share here. Illinois’ expanded early voting began today. I typically like to vote on Election Day, but I couldn’t wait to cast my ballot against the Orange Shitstain and for Joe Biden/Kamala Harris. May there be 70 million more Biden votes by Nov. 3.
Quinerly
@Ken: looks like Plague Rat In Chief (PRIC) was responding to a Tweet where House Judiciary GOP felt Kavanaugh had been treated unfairly. PRIC’S Tweet:
“He should sue the women, and all of those who illegally worked with them, for false and disgusting accusations!!!”
Ohio Mom
Raven Onthill: Yeah, Barrett’s adoption story makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up.
I read somewhere that they wanted to “help” a child in poverty and also, Haiti was close enough that they could visit (I assume by this that they plan to take their two kids to see the place of their birth).
It’s not like there aren’t tons of kids who need adopting right here, what was so special about Haiti? But then it would be hard to control the kids’ relationship with their birth community, and it is clear that woman is all about control.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Mike G: You forgot Cheeto Benito, and Hair Führer.
Kay
@Steeplejack (phone):
I don’t think we’ve screamed sufficiently about this:
People love it. Let’s tell them Judge Barrett wants to take it away.
Ken
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: So what is the opposite of a Cletus safari? A Sutelc safari?
HumboldtBlue
This ad from a few years ago is always worth a rewatch.
Ruckus
@West of the Rockies:
I misread your third sentence at first.
I thought you said they are too invested in stupid….
And trump has the brain power of a squashed flat potato bug. A concussed potato bug is smarter.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Ken: People keep saying Trump would be cruising to victory if not for the pandemic, but I’m not seeing it. He was polling behind Biden basically since they started polling them head to head. Trump woulda lost anyway, though we might all be chewing our fingernails to the quick due to nerves, because it would probably be a much closer race.
MisterForkbeard
@lamh36: Who are they talking about here? The American People? The White House? Pretty sure it’s the former, but… Yeah. No one believes him on anything. The least trustworthy person in the entire country.
Ruckus
@A Ghost to Most:
Well it has had a crazy, insane leader for the last 4.
sanjeevs
@p.a.: I think the crazification factor has moved from 27% to about 40% because of FB.
FB is far more effective than Fox, reaches the working population better etc.
40% or so is a number you see a lot with populist politicians – Boris Johnson, Duterte, Trump etc.
lamh36
@Omnes Omnibus: IKR!
MisterForkbeard
@Kent: Nah. You forget how this works. Or rather, how they want it to work and how it has a good chance of going:
HumboldtBlue
@sanjeevs:
Good observation and Facebook allows them to participate in a way watching Fox they can’t, they feel involved even if it’s just more subtle manipulation.
debbie
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
It’s not like there weren’t a million other reasons to hate him.
debbie
@Quinerly:
not half as unfairly as Merri k Garland. ?
Omnes Omnibus
@sanjeevs: How do you account for all the shitty presidents and candidates who got about 40% in the past?
Kay
So one of the things we have learned is Trump’s attacks on Biden haven’t landed and that is partly because the majority of people believe Donald Trump is a liar and they don’t believe a word he says.
So far from “nothing matters”, the lying by the Trump Family and their low quality hires mattered a lot- it may cost them an election. So it does matter if we point out lies, although it often seems like it doesn’t, and this lesson can be applied to other Republicans, who are now lying about killing the ACA.
Sure it was exhausting pointing out all the lies over and over, but it worked. 65% of people think Donald Trump is a liar. We can do that to more Republicans.
HumboldtBlue
danielx
@Ken:
In those worlds I have a horse that shits gold nuggets. Big ones.
Quinerly
@Ohio Mom: I only caught a little of her opening statement. It sounded to me like her husband “picked out” the second child from Haiti… He was there after the earthquake and brought him back to Chicago and it was snowing. Her youngest has Downs Syndrome. Quite frankly, I couldn’t listen to her opening statement. Most of it seemed about her children and how blissfully happy her marriage is. Something seemed “off”… And I say that even if I knew nothing of her background.
debbie
@HumboldtBlue:
Thanks. Once again, it’s the GOP who’s committing voter fraud. ?
debbie
@Bill Arnold:
Ratfuckery, period.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kay: The fact that Joe Biden is well-known and had a good reputation prior to this election also mattered.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: Magic!
debbie
@lamh36:
I don’t see Trump as a very convincing faker.
Geeno
1936? Didn’t the incumbent (FDR) then win a huge landslide, and end up with a 80 -16 senate majority?
lamh36
Omnes Omnibus
@?BillinGlendaleCA: May as well be for all the acknowledgement it gets.
Annie
@germy:
Are they paid,to attend, like the people at the White House this past weekend?
cain
@debbie:
Martin brought it up yesterday. CA judges rule against the party and as I was saying earlier – just arrest them and judge them with a felony and let their lawyer sort it out. Make them pay for it.
Quinerly
@HumboldtBlue: do you follow this doctor on Twitter? Know his background? I’m reading the thread and have lots of questions. Trying to understand context, etc.
SiubhanDuinne
@Steeplejack (phone):
I know! And last week was all-Wagner, so I had a lovely four-day Ring binge :-)
danielx
@Seanly:
I really, REALLY hope the Secret Service is on its collective toes during the interregnum period, because odds are some nutcase is going to convince himself it’s his responsible to save the country by doing away with the pretender/cheater Biden.
Ridnik Chrome
@Betty: My sister who lives in Trump country noted that most of them live in a bubble where they are filled with misinformation from Fox and others…
This right here is the root of the problem: as long as we have Fox News, talk radio and wingnut Facebook, America is not going to get better.
Annie
@Mai Naem mobile:
I have a relative who lives in a deep red Tr**** area. She does not discuss politics with anyone there. She calls me, and friends in a blue part of her state, for support.
HumboldtBlue
@Quinerly:
No it was retweeted by someone else.
Calouste
@Quinerly: In a normal job interview you’re not supposed to ask the candidate about their family, because that might suggest you’re going to discriminate based on that knowledge. Of course here it’s mostly done to distract from her (lack of) actual experience.
tom
Just tossed $100 to Gary Peters, one of my state’s senators.
jayjaybear
Also, Ill Douche.
Roger Moore
@Seanly:
The election is truly over when Congress officially declares a winner. If Trump concedes before then, well and good, though you might want to carry an umbrella to protect you from the feces from all the flying pigs. But if Congress declares Biden the winner, it doesn’t matter what Trump tries to do. Even if he tries some stupid shit about holding out in the White House, he’ll just be giving the Biden Administration an excuse to arrest him.
LuciaMia
CNN showed DeSantis at the rally, maskless, running the ropeline, high-fiving the crowd and then touching his face.
After while the sheer, willfull stupidity…my pluss is all non-ed out.
Kay
@Omnes Omnibus:
Right, it did, but Hillary Clinton was well known too and he lied about her – but that was back before 65% of the country knew he was a liar. They can be discredited. With enough repetition you can effectively neutralize them as successful liars and that pretty much takes away their whole advantage, because they only lie so much because they have nothing else.
HumboldtBlue
Quinerly
@Calouste: yep. Happily retired (single, no children) atty here! All the reasons why I found her opening statement so odd and strange. I hadn’t gotten around to reading it when it was released over the weekend.
Kay
@LuciaMia:
I think DeWine is spineless and weak and threw away most of his principles by going along when Republicans went hard right, but one nice thing about him is he genuinely seems to care whether people in Ohio live or die. He begs. He’s genuinely distraught. I really wanted Cordray to beat him but I can’t dislike DeWine when he’s trying to save their lives while they’re screaming about impeaching him.
MagdaInBlack
@Quinerly: I think we have all had the experience of someone bragging how “blissfully happy” their marriage is….only to learn it just ain’t so.
Quinerly
@HumboldtBlue: ❤️
Calouste
@HumboldtBlue: It’s more like midget golf: orange balls and a small stick.
James E Powell
@sanjeevs:
That 27% moved up to ~42% because a black man made it to the White House. White people lost their g-d minds and have yet to recover.
HumboldtBlue
@Quinerly:
I goes back to her time in the House, the hearing was 2016 I believe.
WaterGirl
@tom:
DougJ added him to the earlier thread saying this.
I hope we can get him over the top.
Gary Peters, Michigan
Kent
It’s actually sort of a double-edged sword and basically a subsidy for middle and upper class white people. By pulling all those 21-26 year old middle and upper class kids out of the ACA insurance pools the net effect has been to make insurance more expensive for everyone else.
Not saying it isn’t a good benefit for upper middle class families like mine. My 22 year old daughter gets to stay on our Cadillac Kaiser coverage for 4 more years. But from a purely equity point of view the net effect is an upwards redistribution.
Of course if you kill the ACA you also kill the alternative exchange insurance that these young adults would have gone into. So bad all around.
Kay
Nice story about using sports arenas for voting centers:
sanjeevs
@James E Powell: We’ll see. But I see the that 40% figure a lot with populist politicians.
It seems you can put 40% of the population in a FB bubble and they will believe anything. Boris Johnson has been a disaster and never fallen below 40%. Duterte went from unknown to 40% in six months, PiS in Poland never fall below 40% etc.
The Moar You Know
@lamh36: I truly don’t believe he ever had it. He knew he had to get out of further debates and this was a pretty good way of doing it; might pick up some sympathy votes along the way. I think all the fuckers who claimed to have gotten it have been lying about it. Not a one has publicly shown symptoms that look anything like COVID. In fact, none of them have appeared ill at all.
And voila, Trump gets better as soon as the polling indicates it made him look way worse. Which even an idiot child could have predicted would happen, but Christ, if there’s one thing this pack of idiots are, it is stupid.
Example A: Boris Johnson, who did have it and still looks like he’s going to keel over any minute six months later.
mrmoshpotato
@LuciaMia:
HOLE EE SHIT!
Any reports of him also jamming his fingers up his nose?
Burnspbesq
@Another Scott:
Just out of idle curiosity, have we seen any reliable data about the efficacy and safety of those Chinese vaccines? One thing I expect of Joe if he wins is the end of improper White House interference in the work of the FDA, so that the wait for a vaccine will be worth it.
Quinerly
@MagdaInBlack: so true. I should go back and read her statement but just find it all so disgusting that it will stir me up more for the evening. It was something about her asking her sister (she has 5 siblings) about other couple’s marriages and how hers was so perfect. It just had an ick feeling to me… Especially considering those mostly old Repug men who were her in person audience.
Jeffro
@Citizen Alan: 38% of its voters, which is probably close to 25% of its citizens
James E Powell
@Kay:
I think I mentioned this before, my Ohio sister, a Trumpista, argued with me that DeWine is a Democrat. There is just a mental wall against reality with Trumpistas. It’s pretty hard to penetrate.
James E Powell
@sanjeevs:
I don’t know about those other places, but I know here in the US, the Republicans are supported less by voters who love them and more by voters who hate the rest of us.
Jeffro
@Mai Naem mobile: I genuinely cannot imagine ‘shy’ trumpov voters. I can see them not picking up their phones or responding to pollsters, but hell, most of us don’t either ?
Raven Onthill
@Ohio Mom: Haiti has many poor children whose parents cannot afford to care for them. These children are easily available to families of sufficient means (or with adoption grants) who wish to adopt them. They are in so-called “orphanages” which are really group homes for abandoned children; 80% of the children in them are not orphans. Others are trafficked to better-off families as “restaveks,” child-labor. Most of the restaveks are horribly mistreated. Barrett’s children seem to have been from group homes; they were adopted too young to have been restaveks.
As Prof. Ibram X. Kendi pointed out in tweets that he apparently was made to take down:
The history of Haiti is an utter racist shame of the Americas.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
That FoxNews radiologist is the new Dr Feelgood, giving him more of that steroid
you can tell he just stops himself from saying “and even the ugly ones”
Quinerly
@HumboldtBlue: that sounds about right. The thread was interesting. I’m not on Twitter but enjoy reading threads. Can be confusing for me to follow sometime.
Another Scott
STATNews:
It’s good news that they’re following their protocols.
This is another example of how we’re dealing with a novel virus here and we cannot expect that everything is going to go as predicted. There’s still an awful lot that we don’t know.
At the moment, there is no vaccine. There is no cure. There is no treatment for the vast majority of cases – we just wait it out, hope our bodies fight it off, and try not to end up in an ICU…
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
@Woodrow/asim: Biden is indeed spreading out the dough down-ballot
Biden & Co know they’re going to need those Senate seats and state legislatures come 2021
PsiFighter37
Anyone have experience with COVID at all? My wife and I have both come down with sore throats over the past couple of days. She is going to hit up one of NYC’s rapid test centers tomorrow and get a test that can hopefully be turned around in 24 hours. Hoping that it is nothing, but worried that our infant daughter grabbed something at daycare and has definitely passed it along to both of us. Wife has a bit more symptoms (a little nauseous with a headache currently), while I have taken 2 naps of about an hour each today…very unusual despite being awakened ~30 minutes early by our daughter.
Ohio Mom
Kay @129:
I keep wondering how DeWine manages his cognitive dissonance. He must tie himself in knots trying to reconcile that how he approaches keeping Ohio safe is anathema to the rest of his party. Sometimes I catch myself pitying him.
Patricia Kayden
Arghhhhh
Jeffro
@japa21: you’re technically right – they don’t need her to overturn the ACA, but a 6-3 ruling is stronger than a 5-4 or 4-4
the main reason they’re hurrying is to get her seated if/when there are election challenges by trumpov
Jeffro
@Bill Arnold: yup, exactly
they think they’re making a point about “ballot harvesting”
Sally
@MisterForkbeard: Yes, this is what I’m afraid of. But, I am starting to wonder if we are the only ones smart enough to think of this game plan?
Bill Arnold
@Kay:
A recent tell that the “Trump lies” (and “Rs lie”) statements of fact are stinging is that the R influence operators and politicians are now calling Democrats liars to lessen the impact. We all need to keep calling the Rs liars, publicly and without mercy; it’s working, and working well because it’s TRUE.
Another Scott
@Quinerly: Helen Branswell is a good clearing house for reputable medical information on COVID and Ebola and lots of other diseases.
Cheers,
Scott.
Burnspbesq
@Ken:
‘Trump wants it to happen because the pay-per-view revenue from Kavanaugh’s deposition would be enough to retire all the debt he has personally guaranteed.
TS (the original)
I am pleased that every media report I read about trump testing negative for coronavirus says
or something similar. Given the trust in Donald Trump’s doctor – only the 38% are believing this.
The Moar You Know
@Burnspbesq: No. The design is reasonably sound, although one of the two made a really questionable choice as to the adenovirus vector; it probably won’t be very effective. I gotta recommend to everyone here that they read Derek Lowe’s blog. The section of COVID-19 posts is what you want (easy to find) but frankly he’s an extremely entertaining writer about chemistry in general. I had been reading his “things I won’t work with” series for years pre-COVID.
Interestingly I cannot get the link function to work. iPhone SE (2020) iOS 14. Here it is as a naked link. Sorry.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/category/covid-19
HumboldtBlue
Biden is just rubbing it in now.
Jeffro
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: agreed – I think Biden would be ahead, but by a smaller margin, making this a real nail-biter
I was about to say that trumpov would probably act out and be even more of an asshole/misogynist/racist vs a Harris, Warren, or Booker…but between Biden having served as President Obama’s VP and Biden’s appeal to parts of trumpov’s base, I’m not sure that’s the case. The venom has been (obviously) in-tense
Jeffro
@Kay: YES – never give in to that ‘nothing matters’ mentality, Dems!
debbie
@cain:
Thanks. Make them pay, but make sure this fraud is very well publicized.
Ohio Mom
PsiFighter: Yikes — here’s hoping it’s just an old-fashioned bug.
Which it could be, children are Petri dishes. The number of colds I suffered through each year spiked when young Ohio Son started school and tapered off by his high school days.
I don’t think any of us can feel a scritch in our throat or cough or sneeze without panicking. I’ll keep my fingers and toes crossed for the PsiFighter family.
Quinerly
@Another Scott: thanks!
The Moar You Know
@Quinerly: The last person who told me that had fucked her husband’s best friend a week before they got married. He returned the favor a few years later, with another man. They are sure upstanding Christians, those two. And they’ll tell you so. Still married. Loud and proud Trump voters, naturally.
Quinerly
@The Moar You Know: ?
Kay
@Ohio Mom:
Me too. DeWine once voted for a bill to restore voting rights to felons back when he was an honorable and decent person- felons have voting rights in Ohio so it wouldn’t matter here, but this was national. Mitt Romney ran ads in the 2012 GOP primary demonizing him on it, which led DeWine to withdraw his endorsement of Romney.
Republicans used to be able to be pro-voting rights. Can you imagine? It wasn’t all that long ago either.
AxelFoley
@Ken:
Nope. He was losing to Biden before Covid.
debbie
@Ohio Mom:
Seconded. The list of symptoms is all over the place. Get tested just to be safe.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: truth
The eight years as Obama’s right-hand man, most especially
Raven Onthill
@PsiFighter37: not personally. The symptom to look out for, the one that lets you know it is serious, is dropping blood oxygen. If you don’t already have a pulse oximeter, pick one up – they are widely available. SpO2 below 90 is cause for alarm. “Silent hypoxia,” where you don’t feel short of breath but lung function is failing, is part of COVID, so test, test, test at least three times a day.
Mayo Clinic self-evaluation page: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963
Ohio Mom
Raven Onthill: I can see that “rescuing” a child from Haiti is a lot easier than a domestic adoption, which would probably involve social workers carrying on long discussions about the issues surrounding trans-racial adoptions.
Interesting to consider that we will have two SC Justices with children adopted internationally. What does that say about parenthood being seen as a consumer choice?
Tenar Arha
@Ohio Mom: &
@Quinerly: someone on Twitter mentioned the term “restavec,” and that story about her husband bringing one of those adopted kids home after the earthquake makes me wonder now
ETA I see this has already been mentioned by @Raven Onthill
MagdaInBlack
@Quinerly: Your spidey senses went “ick” because its a load of crap tailored for those old men who need to know a wife will always know her place and be “blissfully happy” in that place. And of course, that’s what the folks in her particular brand of “faith” want to hear.
@The Moar You Know: And yes, that’s the kind of stuff I’m thinking of. I know several of those cases.
trnc
Maybe, but it’s also true that enough republican senators getting too sick to vote would be a problem.
Not sure what the problem is with that. Seems like taking a child out of those situations would be a good thing, even given that they’re being indoctrinated into her religious cult.
Amir Khalid
The incumbent in 1936 was reelected nevertheless. Which kind of undercuts the writer’s own point.
PJ
@Ken: Biden’s been way ahead of Trump in polling all year round (and last year as well, which is why Trump had the extortion/bribery plan for the Ukrainian President.)
Raven Onthill
@trnc: read the rest of the remarks. First off, transracial adoptions are always fraught. But, also, I think the Barretts are sufficiently inhuman enough to adopt Black children simply to deflect charges of racism. If that is so, it was child abuse. Rachel Coney Barrett is from one of the most racist places in the USA (Metairie once elected David Duke as a state representative) and racism would come up as a question in her nomination. The Black children deflect that charge.
cintibud
@lamh36: The article says this is the first case of re-infection in the US and 5th globally. Yet folks are talking as if re-infection is common. 5 confirmed cases out of millions of confirmed infections doesn’t seen like a huge concern to me.
Now I do know that the immunity may not be long lasting, but if it were just weeks or a few months I would think we would hear of this more.
Baud
@PJ:
IIRC, most of the Dems were running ahead of Trump during the primary, although not as well as Biden.
Raven Onthill
@Ohio Mom: “we will have two SC Justices with children adopted internationally.”
I didn’t know that! Who’s the other one?
Quinerly
@Raven Onthill: Roberts.
Baud
@Quinerly: I didn’t know that either.
Quinerly
@Baud: children born just a few months apart as I recall. Born in Ireland. There have been whispers about the adoptions… I’m going on memory… They tried to adopt then this came thru. Pretty sure they were in their early 40’s.
Patricia Kayden
Jerk
Stuart Frasier
@Amir Khalid: The significance of 1936 is that was the first year of scientific polling. The Gallup poll in 1936 always showed Roosevelt ahead.
Quinerly
@Baud: just found this. I had forgotten the Latin America part.
https://heavy.com/news/2017/01/jack-josie-roberts-john-roberts-children-family-adopted-inauguration-supreme-court-chief-justice-jane-ages/
Quinerly
@Patricia Kayden: I actually saw that pretty much in real time. I think Meadows is cracking. One publication described him as “emotional” last week. I chuckled when I read that.
smedley the uncertain
@Steeplejack (phone): Thank You. I miss the Met’s HD Live performances.
jimmiraybob
I just saw that Trump entered Air Force 1 tonight via the cargo hold stairs. I guess two possibilities include: 1) can’t make it up the steeper and taller stairs into the passenger area and/or 2) they’ve built a presidential ICU unit into the belly of the beast.
Also too, no mask.
It would be irresponsible not to speculate.
Patricia Kayden
Even his foreign supporters are delusional.
sdhays
@Quinerly: I noted that language at the time too. Poor Mark.
Another Scott
@jimmiraybob:
Go Joe!!
Cheers,
Scott.
p.a.
@Raven Onthill: My Samsung Health app on my phone claims to have that capacity, using the same sensor as heartrate. Don’t know how accurate it is, but I’m always 96%-100%
Jeffro
@Another Scott: rubbing it in!
This campaign has a bit of swagger to it, here and there. Nice change from the freak show on the other side.
HumboldtBlue
You guys, Trump has won three or four Nobel Peace Prizes.
sdhays
I just want to say that wanting to adopt internationally doesn’t necessarily mean anything nefarious at all. There are plenty of reasons people adopt internationally. While adopting internationally is not easy, adopting locally isn’t either, and it’s complicated by extra potential entanglements (with biological parents who can show up years later and reverse everything and even try to take the children away). I know people who have adopted internationally, really lovely people, and that was part of why they adopted internationally. They wanted their daughters to be their daughters, and I don’t think that’s unreasonable.
That’s a separate issue from raising the children in a cult.
Jay C
@James E Powell:
This.
It seems to be a fundamental principle in this election:
Biden voters are motivated by a hatred of Trump.
Trump voters are motivated by a hatred of Biden voters.
Patricia Kayden
Woohoo
Jeffro
@Patricia Kayden: love it!
Go chase that NE-2 vote, trumpov…those are your HEARTLAND VOTERS, after all!
Saw a tweet that noted that people don’t stand in 11-hour lines in Georgia because things are going great…let’s hope that’s the right take.
2liberal
538 shows him ahead in ohio and georgia.
trollhattan
Republicans Republicatin’
Lawn Dorder Party©
frosty
@sdhays: Agreed. We adopted internationally through US agencies. There are many ways to build a family – in our case it was faster than domestic, one of several considerations.
From my perspective, Roberts sounds like any other adoptive family. Barrett seems a bit squirrely.
Kropacetic
@Mike G: Hair Furor!
Quinerly
@sdhays: I think it was Politico. It made me want to know what he had actually done for the reporter to say he was “emotional.” Days are running together but pretty sure Plague Rat In Chief was still in Walter Reed.
Miss Bianca
@hueyplong: It is amazing what reading history will do to either astonish or encourage, eh? I had a huge FB fight with a dear friend who’s much leftier than I am these days, apparently, over certain aspects of modern Democratic policy. Let’s just say she was a Bernie fan and I…was not. And the funny thing to *me* was that she kept invoking FDR as a progressive avatar, and I kept hooting, “do you realize that back in the 30s you would have been howling that FDR was a neoliberal squish for not dismantling capitalism and installing a socialist workers paradise? I do – from reading lefty newspapers from the 30s!”
Things got a little tense there for a while…
Jeffro
Rampell points out that all of this was/is a choice, and it’s hurting America’s kids:
Patricia Kayden
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus:
Well-spoken.
Kay
@frosty:
ABL agrees:
Ken
In an amusing coincidence, the Mission: Impossible episode on Me-TV last night was “The Astrologer” which involves – among other things – IMF agents hiding in the cargo hold of a plane and cutting a way into the passenger compartment.
Any word on whether AF1 has been similarly modified, or did Trump spend the whole trip with the luggage? (Though I’m leaning toward your #2, they put a medical unit in the hold and probably kept him on oxygen the whole trip.)
Ivan X
@Ohio Mom: I think we’re ok, but at the same time we’re all just going to be white knuckles and shakes until the day after Election Day, and then again until it’s actually called, and still some more until Biden’s the President and there doesn’t appear to be a total breakdown of society. I sort of wish there were a way for me to suspend my consciousness between now and then.
sdhays
@Quinerly: I think I may have heard it on the Snooze Hour, passing along the report from Politico. It was definitely from when Dump was at Walter Reed. An “emotional” Meadows was sleeping in a room at the hospital, which I also thought was kind of strange. I would have expected the Chief of Staff to, you know, keep running things, but I guess since no one’s really running the government on the best of days nowadays, Meadows didn’t have anything better to do than to cry in a pillow next door to his gasping gawd.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@sdhays:
My former next door neighbors(progressives) adopted two girls internationally(India and China) and that was part of their reasoning.
Kay
You guys, we found out new justice when we expand the court:
Indiana! And a state court judge. It’s perfect.
Ken
@Kay: For the expanded Supreme Court, the expanded appellate court, or the district court?
Kay
@Ken:
Oh, she HAS to go to the SCOTUS. Right next to the one who took her seat.
Quinerly
@sdhays: ?
Gin & Tonic
@Ken: Read your comment and thought “huh, I didn’t know the International Monetary Fund had those kinds of agents.”
Raven Onthill
@p.a.: I’ve seen a study reporting accuracy of smartphone SpO2 levels in some cases, but they also are not FDA approved. Apple has set the precedent here, saying it is “not intended for medical use.”
Until those approvals are given, probably best to get an approved pulse oximeter. ☹️
James E Powell
@Kay:
The idea is nice, but Judge Selby is 65 years old.
Raven Onthill
@Quinerly: thanks. That’s fascinating.
Patricia Kayden
Barbara
@trnc: “We have no use for you but we’re more than willing to take your kids.” That is the flipside view of not seeing anything wrong with taking a kid out of the systemic poverty of a place like Haiti. No idea if there was anything especially nefarious going on, as there most assuredly was with some of these post-earthquake adoptions, but it is always an ethically fraught thing to do when people live in unalleviated desperation.
Patricia Kayden
Kay
@Patricia Kayden:
Good article. Did you catch the part where the one woman was afraid to tell her family she isn’t voting for Trump again? A shy Biden voter.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kay: I had the same thought. I’m guessing there are a couple more in her family even she doesn’t know about.
James E Powell
@Patricia Kayden:
I am not a good person. I apologize if I offend, but I wish a holes like that woman just didn’t say shit. Just go vote a straight D ticket and keep your stupid fucking decision making history to yourself.
BigJimSlade
@germy: It just reminds me of some people in grade school who never wanted to know a damned thing.
Steeplejack
@Quinerly:
When my brother and his husband were in the process of adopting their two kids, my brother got really involved in the whole “scene” and even served on the board of an adoption agency for a while. The Roberts adoption was a much-discussed story.
As I remember it—and after reading the story you linked—the kids were born in Ireland, but supposedly Ireland doesn’t allow adoptions to non-residents, and all adoptions have to go through an official agency (i.e., no “private” adoptions). It gets real murky how the Roberts pulled it off, and apparently there was a Latin American angle, almost as if the kids were laundered through some country there to avoid scrutiny when they brought them into the United States. (Adoptees from Ireland would invite a level of questions that ones from Latin America wouldn’t.) There were some raised eyebrows at the time about how the Robertses scored two lily-white kids from South America. Definitely a few unanswered questions, but maybe not enough for reporters to follow up at this late date.
Interesting niblet in that story: “Sally Quinn, who was a former classmate of Jane Roberts [. . .]” WTF?! If that’s the Sally Quinn, she is 79, and Jane Roberts is in her mid-60s. Where would they have been “classmates”? No clue given.
James E Powell
@germy:
How young? College kids? Thirtysomethings?
People who go to rallies are not representative of the electorate as a whole. Most voters do nothing but vote.
That said, from what we’ve seen over the last four years, there are a disturbing number of young people who are heavily invested in a vicious strain of white supremacy.
Steeplejack
@Kay:
Hmm, wonder if @NYCSouthpaw reads Balloon Juice.
Chris T.
Hmm. If Trump really is still getting dexamethasone, he’ll dissolve into a puddle of goo soon. (Non-technical and not 100% accurate but there’s a reason you don’t stay on the stuff.)
WaterGirl
@Steeplejack: They were talking about that nomination on Pod Save America last night, too. I think that really bothered people at the time, so they remember it.