As of tonight, September 24th, Joe Biden is significantly ahead of Donald Trump. Depending on what type of aggregator or projection system you prefer, the lead is anywhere from +6 to +8 points with projected electoral college central point estimates of Biden usually clearing at least 300 electoral votes.
As of tonight, voting has already started in several states and soon will begin in most of the country as absentee ballots are getting mailed.
If nothing changes and our information awareness systems perform well within normal tolerances, Joe Biden is highly likely to win the electoral college.
Each day where nothing changes on fundamental popularity and more people vote, we should update our priors slightly and become more confident in our predictions. Every early vote that is cast, every absentee ballot that is received and deemed acceptable reduces variance even if the caster of that ballot is someone who is both extremely likely to vote and extremely likely to not change their mind. That action turns a high possibility into a certainty and removes an ever so small amount of potential variance.
Each day going forward, the share of votes that have been cast increases. The share of the population that is information indifferent increases every day.
Things can change. But each day where the fundamental facts on the ground don’t change reduces variance and low variance is beneficial to the candidates and campaigns that have consistent leads outside the limit of litigation.