Even ~20 years ago, women were better at wearing masks https://t.co/IVu8hhxt3d
— ?????? ?????????????????????? ?? ???? (@eliowa) September 7, 2020
I’m actually suspicious this ‘Sturgis study’ may have been somewhat overstated — just because OMG FEKKIN’ BOOMER PRETEND-BIKERS!!! is so much more emotionally satisfying than ‘governmental-social failure along multiple axes’ as an explanation. But there’s no denying it was, indeed, unpleasantly significant:
Results are in: Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was a COVID "super spreader" costing billions https://t.co/c7e7ZHx3T7 pic.twitter.com/V1H2dcyCFW
— Jalopnik (@Jalopnik) September 8, 2020
We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe. https://t.co/6tCCV6aXYf
— Andrew Friedson (@FriedsonAndrew) September 6, 2020
(h/t MajorMajorMajorMajor)
traveling back in time to 2005 to try and prevent this future from happening but only able to remember that Smash Mouth would be responsible for more deaths than 9/11
— donald john president (@Theophite) September 9, 2020
Related: My weak online search skills aren’t turning up any recent updates about NH’s Laconia MotorCycle Week, where the Governor of a state whose major industry is tourism set *much* more stringent parameters for this year’s (postponed from May) event. It only wrapped up on August 30th, so it might be a tad early to know what the spillover effects will be. But potentially, it could also be a hopeful sign that some outdoor events — and not just street protests — could be done safely, if enough people act like responsible grownups. (Big if, for true.)
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These countries currently (7-day avg) have deaths/million at 0.11 or lower. The US is at 2.49/million@OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/ke7OZ41ObR
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) September 7, 2020
India’s has reported nearly 4.3 million coronavirus cases, second only to the United States, while maintaining an upward surge amid an ease in nationwide restrictions to help mitigate the economic pain. https://t.co/0EvwAZ9nyK
— The Associated Press (@AP) September 8, 2020
India coronavirus: Rumours stall testing in Punjab https://t.co/DX7N5Kaxqf
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) September 9, 2020
Indonesia, which has recorded more deaths from the coronavirus than any other Southeast Asian nation, also has seen the most fatalities among medical workers in the region. https://t.co/uWsiu18kCq
— The Associated Press (@AP) September 9, 2020
In a city that was once the world’s coronavirus epicenter, doctors are calling back Covid survivors to study their health. About half say they haven’t fully recovered. https://t.co/2KouPvzomF
— Dr. Seema Yasmin (@DoctorYasmin) September 8, 2020
France has seen record number of COVID cases exceding reported cases in March-April, but sports continued.
Star Paris St Germain football players Mbappe and Neymar
and the director of the Tour de France have all tested positive. Over 6800+ test positive daily now in France pic.twitter.com/UsihW5eM0h— Infectious Diseases (@InfectiousDz) September 9, 2020
Surge: Spain's total coronavirus cases crossed the half-million mark Monday, as the govt struggled to contain the growing number of infections. A 1000-bed hospital is under construction in Madrid and is expected to be finished within the next 60 days https://t.co/uXHj9XIQ9q pic.twitter.com/7i0fvHcF3t
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 7, 2020
In Spain, parents worried about the coronavirus are weighing the risks against the threat of a prison sentence for failing to send their children back to school. @sarapuigc https://t.co/e5fRgARkoj
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) September 8, 2020
As #COVID19 resurges now in #Spain, authorities in Madrid are struggling with the same issues many American politicians are grappling with — testing, lockdown, economics and security. This is a very detailed analysis. https://t.co/tSU8a3o5Pt
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) September 8, 2020
A sharp spike in new coronavirus cases across the U.K. in recent days is stoking concerns about the pandemic’s prospective path during winter. The British government has faced criticism for mixed messages since it started easing lockdown a few months ago. https://t.co/knNodIMflx
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) September 8, 2020
South Africa’s economy has sunk deeper into recession, with its gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2020 plummeting by 51%, largely as a result of COVID-19 and the country’s strict lockdown. https://t.co/ja5AVQGr5j
— AP Africa (@AP_Africa) September 8, 2020
'Health catastrophe': Argentine provinces strain as coronavirus cases top 500,000 https://t.co/tmllOY1htG pic.twitter.com/WrWEOqBbP0
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 9, 2020
Mexico reports total of 642,860 coronavirus cases, 68,484 deaths https://t.co/wzb7Dked9K pic.twitter.com/gJDGitLXJ1
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 9, 2020
The pandemic was supposed to be great for strongmen. what happened? From Trump to Lukashenko authoritarians are failing to address the crisis https://t.co/ChVZVID3OX
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 8, 2020
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Masking up: Perspective article in New England Journal of Medicine suggests masking acts as a passive form of vaccination — preventing infection until a vax arrives: Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine | NEJM https://t.co/7lR7So0WSJ
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 8, 2020
BREAKING: AstraZeneca's #Covid19 vaccine trials have been paused as the company investigates a serious adverse event the occurred in the UK. Not clear if the unexplained illness is linked to the vaccine, or what it was. https://t.co/wGqvvXIBTD
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) September 8, 2020
Some context: this is how trials are supposed to work. For now, the only take away is that the trial's data & safety monitoring board is doing its job, which is a good thing! https://t.co/pWaoaB3C9v
— Caroline Chen (@CarolineYLChen) September 8, 2020
People inquiring about Covid-19 vaccines often want to know when the public can be confident that available vaccines are safe and effective, when a vaccine will be available to people like them, and when uptake will be high enough to enable a return to prepandemic life. #COVID19
— NEJM (@NEJM) September 8, 2020
Delayed immune responses may drive #COVID19 mortality rates among men & people over age 65. COVID tends to be more severe among older adults & men. Univ of Washington study found immune-cell responses didn't activate for 3 days or more after infection https://t.co/qzS5peljkU pic.twitter.com/d5YAz241MY
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 8, 2020
Interesting thread:
1. I'm enthusiastic about the prospect of cheap, fast, at-home paper strip COVID tests for daily proactive screening.
To get the most out of them, we need to start thinking now about issues around incentives and individuals behavior.https://t.co/yS8lEDHOFG
— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) September 6, 2020
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COVID-19 cases rise in U.S. Midwest and Northeast, deaths fall for third week https://t.co/xIpLsp40P2 pic.twitter.com/4QJ8j6o8TF
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 9, 2020
It's about to get worse in South Dakota. https://t.co/bTFgfS28hR
— Bob Morris, MD, PhD (@rdmorris) September 7, 2020
In a tourism ad South Dakota says it is using federal coronavirus relief funds to air, Gov. Kristi Noem touts her state as “a place to safely explore.” The state currently ranks second in the country for new cases per capita over the last two weeks. https://t.co/F8FIlNfpIi
— AP Central U.S. (@APCentralRegion) September 8, 2020
right, why would the president want to protect others https://t.co/dAWPS5meTV
— kilgore trout, non mini-stroke haver (@KT_So_It_Goes) September 8, 2020
WereBear
Yes, keep reminding us the White House gets constant tests on demand.
Not like us proles.
YY_Sima Qian
It was good to have the daily update return! I hope you had a good rest A.L.!
For the past 3 days, China reported 0 new domestic confirmed cases and 0 new domestic asymptomatic case.
All confirmed and asymptomatic cases at Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region have been discharged from hospitals or released from medical quarantine. Over the past week, restrictions have been steadily lifted in the region, with businesses and schools resuming, and tourists now once again allowed into Xinjiang (without needing quarantine or negative RT-PCR results). As of right now, there are no domestic cases in hospital or medical quarantine in all of China.
Yesterday, China reported 2 new imported confirmed cases, 8 imported asymptomatic cases, and 5 imported suspect cases:
* Shanghai Municipality – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Singapore; 5 suspect cases, no information released
* Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 1 confirmed case (previous asymptomatic), a Chinese returning from Egypt; 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Nigeria
* Chongqing Municipality – 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Singapore and Nepal
* Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Bangladesh
* Foshan in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Ethiopia
* Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from the Philippines
* Yingkou Port in Liaoning Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Filipino crew member off a cargo ship
* Xi’an in Shaanxi Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Saudi Arabia (via Baku)
Today, Hong Kong reported 6 new cases, all from local transmission, 5 of whom do not have clear sources of identification.
Baud
For Anne Laurie.
rikyrah
I did miss this post.
JPL
@YY_Sima Qian: That is amazing, and I fear we still have a long ways to go before our numbers look like that.
NotMax
Number of countries reporting cumulative cases numbers over 500k was holding at 7 for quite a while. Now it is up to 10.
U.S. – ~6420k
India ~ 4370k
Brazil ~4165k
Russia ~1041k
Peru ~696k
Colombia ~ 680k
Mexico ~ 643k
South Africa ~640k
Spain ~535k
Argentina ~500k
Worldwide deaths looking at the number 900,000 recede in the distance in the rear view mirror.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s daily Covid-19 numbers are not as alarming as those of the past two days, but still not so great. 24 new cases.18 cases from local infection: 16 Malaysians, all in Kedah, consisting of 13 cases from the Sungai private-hospital cluster and three others, on whom the Health Ministry has not provided information; two non-Malaysians, both from the Benteng Lahad Datu cluster in Sabah. (To clarify yesterday’s confusing description: This cluster consists of illegal immigrants rounded up in Operation Benteng, who were then detained in the District Police HQ lockup in Lahad Datu and in Tawau Prison — apparently, neither facility was designed for social distancing.)
Six imported cases: three Malaysians, returning from indonesia, South Korea, and Singapore; three non-Malaysians, arriving from Bangladesh (two) and China. The cumulative reported total is 9,583 cases.
Seven more patients recovered and were discharged, for a total of 9,143 patients recovered — 95.41% of the cumulative reported total. Active and contagious cases currently being isolated/treated in hospital climbed to 312 patients; seven are in ICU, four of them on respirators.
There have been no new deaths since 1st September, and the total stands at 128 deaths — 1.34% of the cumulative reported total, 1.38% of resolved cases.
TS (the original)
You were missed AL – thank you for the post. I concur with Baud.
It used to be that people worldwide trusted the CDC and the FDA to give the right decisions on such things. Not so much under trump.
Mary G
Orange County continuing to improve – testing down to 4.2% positive, and hospitalizations way down. We are almost down to tier 3 – moderate transmission, though we are still categorized as tier 2 – substantial because of the required wait time to move to opening more. Several cities have passed municipal laws imposing fines for going unmasked in public from $100-$500 depending on how many times you’re caught. People seem much more serious than they did around Memorial Day, probably because their kids aren’t thriving with the online schooling. Maybe reality is sinking in.
JPL
The GA republican candidate and QAnon supporter Marjorie Greene was suspended from twitter, so she wants to make going after tech companies her number one cause. She was tweeting false information about the virus and the use of masks. This is one of her comments “forcing boys to wear masks is emasculating.”
The reason that we can’t have nice things is because of people like her.
NotMax
@Mary G
Alas, for too many reality doesn’t sink in; it may alight on the surface, then all too soon drifts out of sight beyond the horizon.
rikyrah
I would never trust a vaccine put out by this Administration ?
raven
California U of Pennsylvania football player Jamain Stephens Jr. dies after contracting COVID-19
Mousebumples
If anyone is up for a public health survey, related to Coronavirus, this link may be of interest – https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Take-a-Survey-to-Help-COVID-19-Research-.html?soid=1134176112121&aid=lKo1ty60lkE
Took me 15 minutes or so to compete. I think it’s aimed at US respondents.
debbie
@rikyrah:
Seconded.
Is anyone familiar with the Bradykinin hypothesis as an explanation for COVID’s ravages? This is the very first I’ve read about it, but I can’t tell if it’s legit.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Fake news. Everyone knows covid only kills the old and the weak.
Mousebumples
@debbie: hypothetically plausible, but it sounds like a lot of the early potential treatments and rationale I had been hearing in April or so. If it was groundbreaking news, having been published in July , I’d hope i would have heard more about it. Not sure if that eLife journal that reference is peer reviewed either .
Dexamethasone (steroid) is the biggest promising treatment I’ve heard about so far .
OzarkHillbilly
@debbie: Interesting, thanx.
debbie
@Mousebumples:
Thanks. I thought the part about lung damage resulting from the formation of hyaluronic acid in the lungs was particularly interesting…and scary.
satby
More detail on that Oxford-Astra Zenica trial pause than I saw from a scan of the above linked article.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — the National Records of Scotland (NRS) weekly report is out, with 2 deaths reported last week where COVID-19 was listed on the death certificate.
Looking back, the death rate in Scotland rose by a third between April and June 2020 compared to the preceding five-year average for the same period, with COVID-19 listed as the underlying cause in 3,739 of the deaths and accounting for 83% of the increase. The official death toll of confirmed COVID-19 cases for Scotland until today is about 2,500.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirms a further 159 people have tested positive for Covid-19, 1.9% of those newly tested yesterday. She highlights this test positivity rate is now consistently around 2%, compared to less than 1% a few weeks ago. No deaths of people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 have occurred in the past 24 hours but the daily confirmed case rate has trebled in the past week.
A total of 274 patients with a confirmed case of COVID-19 are in hospital (up seven), with six being treated in intensive care (no change). Hospital case numbers have been creeping up slowly over the past few weeks.
Jerry
Those covid numbers related to the Sturgis fascist bikers party seem a bit large. So large that it’s hard to believe. I wonder if anyone will be working to confirm the data.
Mousebumples
@satby: agreed on the details of what you posted. The trial being paused is GOOD and NORMAL for how vaccine trials should go. If the potentially serious adverse effect is determined to not be related to the vaccine , the study will resume after the investigation.
satby
@debbie: I read that last week on FB, so consider the source. It sounds plausible, but I would have thought it would start showing up in the information from experts like AL pulls for these posts if they were actively pursuing it as a disease theory.
Mousebumples
@Jerry: why do you think they seem large? After a month of spread, they seem plausible to me.
debbie
@satby:
It came from a group in my community (no trolls that I’ve seen), so probably a half-step above that.
Jerry
@Mousebumples: A lot of people attended the rally and then went back to their homes, so I can see how this study is correct. But 250,000 seems like a *lot* of cases. I would just like some other outfit to confirm these numbers. That’s all.
gkoutnik
I’ve had this image of jackals all over the world refreshing, refreshing, waiting for the return of AL’s COVID post. No pressure. Thanks!
SUNY Oneonta update: Out of 3,000 of the 6,000 students tested, 684 positives. No word on why all students weren’t tested, although we have been told that students living off-campus were not tested. All on-campus students who have tested negative have left. The reported numbers of students in isolation and quarantine on campus is less than half of the 684 positive cases; where are the rest? No real attempt to communicate with the community – which had about 60 cases March-July – about anything of importance. Students who had dorm rooms and meal plan will be reimbursed; not so off-campus students, who have the option of staying in their apartments in town and taking classes remotely from there.
Hartwick College (about 1,500 students), on the hill across town, is up to ten cases, even though they’ve been locked down, all-remote and doing test and trace regularly.
On the bright side, The World’s Busiest Red Squirrel has brought about a bazillion butternuts, each one way bigger than his/her head, down from the big tree outside my office window. Go Red!
satby
@Jerry: @Mousebumples: 462,182 bikers were at the rally and then using cell phone tracking data the researchers examined covid case increases where rally participants returned home to, so no it doesn’t seem like a bizarrely large outcome. The wedding in Maine that became a super-spreader event only had 62 attendees but (so far) caused 144 cases and a reported 3 deaths. Edit: none of the fatalities had attended the wedding, BTW.
Jerry
@satby: Half a million attended?! Jesus. Come on people! I guess that makes the numbers more believable to me. Thanks for that.
YY_Sima Qian
@JPL: China has not reported any new domestic confirmed cases for over 20+ days, or any new domestic infections (including asymptomatic) for 15+ days.
Of course, that does not mean there is no virus circulating at very low levels domestically in China, as evidenced by the odd case exported from China to South Korea and Malaysia. Without more information published by the importing countries, it is tough to tell if these reported cases are false positives, or whether they came from Hong Kong (versus Mainland China), or if they were infected at ports of entry (as seemed to have happened for one Taiwanese traveler during entry quarantine in Vietnam). New outbreaks will almost certainly pop up in China from time to time, especially as Autumn arrives in the northern hemisphere, whether from low level local transmission hitting a super spreading event, or from imported cases/products.
I do not believe the US (or Europe) will reach such low numbers for a long long time (until highly effective vaccines are in universal use, which are not likely the first wave of approved candidates), the virus is deeply endemic. Only certain countries in the Asia Pacific region are aiming for full eradication of each new outbreak, and choking off vectors for importation, as their COVID-19 response strategy (China, Vietnam, Taiwan, New Zealand, and possibly Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore, and may be the Pacific islands). The South Korean strategy appears to be keeping the spread at low levels without it ever getting out of hand. It is an extraordinarily delicate dance, one that SK has handled extraordinarily well so far. Germany and Scandinavia ex-Sweden appears to be edploying a variation of the South Korean strategy, but without the comprehensive control and monitoring of international travelers.
In the rest world, there is not enough control and monitoring of cross border travel, there is not the stomach to lock down hard enough and long enough to totally snuff out the already significant outbreaks, or the capacity to build the TTI capability to quickly snuff out emerging outbreaks after exiting the lock downs.
Haroldo
@Mousebumples:
1) Even in these times, science can move more slowly than we’d like;
2) eLife is peer-reviewed, tho’ its peer-review process is different than other journals.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELife
Mousebumples
@Jerry: a lot of people attended the rally (over multiple days ), stayed in hotels , went to restaurants, went to tattoo parlors , etc.
I saw a post the other day (from an epidemiologist on Facebook) that expected BLM protests to have large spread like Sturgis, and she (?) examined why they were likely different.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=181301163517801&id=101805971467321
It cites a pdf for reference too.
satby
@Jerry: And unlike the BLM protests, Sturgis participants by and large are the demographic that refuses to mask up and social distance, and pictures of the 2020 rally bear that out. Hence the difference in infection spread outcomes between the two mass gatherings.
Mousebumples
Fair point , and thanks for doing the peer reviewed checking .
I just work in health care (pharmacist), and between these posts , my own reading , and my work , i would have thought I would have heard more about this promising treatment if it was more than theoretical .
JoyceH
@Jerry: You’re not considering the scale of the event. We’ve seen cases where one infected person at a family social event wound up causing scores of infections. This was four hundred thousand people from all over the country, including the worst hot spots. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that group included several thousand infected persons. I would expect the eventual fallout from Sturgis to be a million infections. Minimum.
The Thin Black Duke
@Mousebumples: Yep. Why are so many assclowns confused about what the word ‘contagious’ means?
YY_Sima Qian
Correction on the Hong Kong data:
6 new cases, 5 from local transmission, 1 of whom do not have clear sources of identification.
Booger
@JoyceH: Yeah, but at least they didn’t have to wear HELMETS.
mrmoshpotato
@JPL: Oh for the sake of fucks. I hope she gets crushed in November.
Sloane Ranger
Lovely to see you back AL. I hope you had a nice relaxing rest from all this.
Now, for the UK; as I’ve reported already, we’ve been seeing a steady uptick in cases over the past few weeks, but this exploded over the weekend as reported in AL’s post. On Saturday, we had 1,813 new cases nationally, this grew to 2,988 on Sunday. Since then we’ve seen a slight decrease with 2,948 on Monday and 2,460 yesterday. National figures are not yet available for today.
Broken down by nation, the numbers are;
5/9/20 – England 1477; Northern Ireland (NI) 118; Scotland 141; Wales 77
6/9/20 – England 2576; NI 106; Scotland 208; Wales 98
7/9/20 – England 2528; NI 141; Scotland 146; Wales 133
8/9/20 – England 2094; NI 40; Scotland 176; Wales 150.
The government has said it will make it illegal for more than 6 people to meet together socially except in a number of limited circumstances with effect from next Monday. Why they’re waiting that long when they impose quarantine restrictions at a few hours notice is a mystery. What it means for me is that the tentative plans my U3A were developing to hold some sort of social event for a small number of people with social distancing etc before winter sets in are on hold.
I was listening to a phone in programme earlier and they had a pathologist on saying that everyone dies eventually of something and old people die at statistically higher numbers than other groups so everyone should just factor the risk of COVID-19 into their risk-benefit analysis and get on with their lives. I suppose when you spend your life dealing with dead people it does tend to give you a somewhat dark view of life but, dammit, there were plenty phoning in to agree with him or to call COVID a hoax and say the dangers were exaggerated. The disrespect many people seem to have for older people is amazing!
Anyway, moving on to deaths, there were 37 new deaths between Saturday and yesterday. 31 of these were in England, 3 in NI, 3 in Scotland and none in Wales.
I will post today’s figures tomorrow.
Ken
@debbie: Derek Lowe has a discussion of the bradykinin work.
Haroldo
@Mousebumples:
And here’s Derek Lowe weighing in:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/08/bradykinin-and-the-coronaviru
ETA What Ken said ^
VOR
@satby: There is a group called “All Gas No Brakes” on YouTube who does interviews at various events. Mostly they just let the morons talk. They did a piece at Sturgis which explains a lot. https://youtu.be/UK2FBEpmlUo
debbie
@Ken:
@Haroldo:
Thanks to you both for this link which I will read after work.
Ruckus
@Jerry:
The participants come from a wide variety of areas, some quite far away. They are in very close quarters for a relatively long time, and energetic. Many are older, say over 45 yrs old. Many are not in good shape/health.
So, the entire event is primed to be one of the worst case scenarios for super spreading. It wouldn’t take very many cases with an unknown exposure to make this sort of disease extremely effectively spread. And the number of cases of new disease taken back to home areas could be staggering.
Another Scott
As always, caveat emptor and cui bono?
Cheers,
Scott.
J R in WV
@Mousebumples:
Well, then. I’m sold!! Everyone knows if you fabricate inside a .pdf Adobe will smite you!
;-)
Just kidding, Mousebumples! Glad to see you this morning!
Amir khalid
test