Getting lots of requests to go big on state legislatures and in the House. I’ll put together a House list at some point. In the meantime, Sam Wang says giving to the North Carolina Democratic party is one of the best ways to help flip a state legislature.
Reader Interactions
80Comments
Comments are closed.
Baud
A blue NC would be amazing.
Haroldo
Contributed. I’ve lots of family in the Asheville area.
Marcopolo
Reposting a comment from the Portland thread since it really more belongs here–new Cook Political Ratings for the House:
We should all remember a poll is a snapshot in time, keep our heads down and working hard, but it looks like the House will continue to be comfortably blue for the next two years.
Baud
@Marcopolo:
So until now, Cook was predicting that the GOP would gain seats?
Marcopolo
@Baud: It was trending blue in 2008. Obama won the state. Then the disastrous 2010 midterm elections happened and Rs gerrymandered the hell out of the state during redistricting. That is only now being addressed via the courts, ongoing demographic shifts, and the Rs continually shitting their beds when they attempt to govern.
Baud
@Marcopolo: Gerrymandering doesn’t affect the governors race, and Cooper just won a couple of years ago.
There go two miscreants
Done! For the grandkids.
Marcopolo
@Baud: Yes. If you took a neutral view of the blue wave in 2018, the Ds won a bunch of seats in areas that have been traditionally more conservative and Republican leaning in that election. So your starting belief would be that in a presidential year with supposedly higher turnout and a bunch of freshmen running to hold these seats that you might see some regression back to Rs. Obviously with the malfeasance of the Trump administration vis a vis the pandemic, the way down ticket have become more and more tightly bound to how the President is faring (folks just don’t split tickets as much anymore), and the energy & fundraising power that Ds are showing this cycle that is not the case in 2020. So in the current environment a place like Cook, which is fairly conservative in their ratings (not partisan conservative to be clear but modeling conservative), will have to make adjustments to the Ds to keep up with facts on the ground.
Hoodie
@Baud: several statewide office holders in NC are Dems, including AG and Sec. of State. Somehow, even with Cooper winning and Josh Stein taking the AG spot Cooper held, we ended up with a total RWNJ Lt. governor, who is running against Cooper.
Marcopolo
@Baud: I’m not sure what your point is here. The issue in NC has been gerrymandered state & federal legislative districts. To the point that the state legislature had an R supermajority & could pass really awful legislation and override Cooper’s vetos of it until they finally lost it in 2018.
God knows what will happen with the 2020 Census, but with another good election result in NC in 2020, the Ds will hopefully be able to repair some of the damage caused since 2010.
WaterGirl
Doug, I find these posts where you focus on one race at a time to be more compelling than when I give to a list of 12 candidates, for example.
Plus I find that if I give one at a time to the ones that speak to me, I am less likely to get on a list for 12 or 20 people that I will likely never want to give too again. :-)
I don’t know if other people are like me, but I thought I would share my thoughts.
Matt McIrvin
@Marcopolo: Long term, by popular support, North Carolina is going the way of Virginia. And after NC, Georgia is next.
The other side knows this and is busy hanging onto power by any undemocratic means they can concoct.
H.E.Wolf
@Marcopolo:
Thank you for keeping us posted!
Sending much appreciation to you and to DougJ, for the focus on Democratic candidates for state and national legislatures.
Uncle Cosmo
@Baud: Carolina blue, of course. (From the hoary old bon mot, If God ain’t a Tar Heel, then why’s the sky Carolina blue?)
japa21
DougJ, I got a ewmail from the Dem candidate for Governor in MO. Polls show her close but with a lot of undecideds. Maybe one of our MO folks (OH are you here) could give an idea of what her odds are.
Marcopolo
@Matt McIrvin: Have you seen what is coming out of the Texas Republican state party convention this week? They see the writing on the wall there & want to make 2 changes to how elections work in TX:
germy
And…
Progressive Jamaal Bowman Projected To Oust Longtime N.Y. Rep. Engel In Primary
Baud
@Marcopolo: I’m not sure the first idea can get past the text of the 17th amendment.
The second idea is probably constitutional, but it’s really unpopular everywhere it’s been proposed. And, as of now, would actually help Dems, who currently get nothing out of Texas.
But the fact that the state GOP is thinking in those terms is a good sign.
Marcopolo
@japa21: I’m a MO resident & I’d say her odds are long but not impossible. A lot probably depends on how our Covid-19 situation develops & whether Trump’s approval in MO could drop another 5-10 points. Right now we are on the outside edge of going the AZ, FL, TX route with Covid. We are at about 30K cases statewide but numbers have increased dramatically this past week. The St Louis County government is talking about rolling back reopenings–we currently have a mandatory mask requirement, which also exists in StL City & KC–but Parsons, our governor has not put any statewide restrictions in place. If Covid were to really take off in the next month or so that might make a difference.
I have given money to Galloway our D candidate for MO Gov, but this election cycle I am pretty much giving every D (at least in St Louis County) a contribution just for showing up to run. The MO race that is the priority for flipping is MO-2. The D candidate, Jill Schupp, is on the DCCCs Red to Blue list & just outraised the R incumbent in the second quarter. The margin in this district in 2018 was 52R-48D, and that was with a neophyte candidate starting with no name recognition. Jill’s been both a state rep & senator and her district is inside MO-2. I had planned on doing a lot of door knocking & other stuff for her campaign (and one particular state house race) until the pandemic blew that all up.
debbie
@Marcopolo:
Maybe it’s because I’m exhausted and overly tired anymore, but I don’t buy that, not even one little bit.
germy
Washington (CNN) Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said Friday she is undergoing chemotherapy to treat a recurrence of cancer. The treatment is yielding “positive results.”
Ruviana
OT but RBG has had a recurrence of cancer
ETA: Aaand Germy beat me to the punch.
Elizabelle
Ruth Bader Ginsburg being treated for recurrence of liver cancer.
Yeah. I noticed she’d been transferred to Johns Hopkins from Sibley in DC for the infection. Known regionally for its cancer center.
Be well, RBG. Survive until a better president can replace you.
Elizabelle
WaPost story in full:
debbie
@Elizabelle:
Well, this is enough to start me crying.
Elizabelle
RBG is tough. I like her odds of surviving until it is impossible for Trump to replace her.
And, under McConnell rules (LOL), we are less than 4 months out from a presidential election. Too close. Let the voters decide.
Elizabelle
@debbie: Don’t, Debbie. RBG is not crying.
Be tough like her.
DougJ
@WaterGirl:
I’d be happy to do House one seat at a time too. I guess it depends on how many seats we target. I think it will just be 10-15, which means I can do one at a time. If things go nuts and there are 50, I can do a list instead.
Elizabelle
Per wiki:
We are more than four months past that. Under McConnell Rules, if he ever followed them, it is too late to meet with and vote on a new USSC justice. No matter what happens.
Yeah, like McConnell can be trusted. Survive, Notorious RBG. Survive.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
She is tough. If McConnell rams through a replacement at this point and we take back the Senate, the Court will be packed.
DougJ
@japa21:
I like the idea of that one a lot…I’m not sure if it’s really in play or not
WaterGirl
@Marcopolo: Surely that can’t happen without the consent of the Democrats?
lee
My district (TX-03) has gone from ‘Solid GOP’ to ‘Likely GOP’. It’s not much but I’ll take it. Honestly there are probably better places to look to flip.
We have a good Dem candidate for this district (young, female, not overly progressive, daughter of immigrants). I’m donating to her campaign and my daughter is going to volunteer. I’m hoping for the best but it is a long shot.
Elizabelle
@Baud: I think we should pack the Supreme Court matter what. McConnell stole that seat. Needs rectifying. You cannot have a USSC that is so out of tune with the public, and that is happening.
It’s why BLM has such resonance, and why the Confederate names came off two Hanover County schools in Virginia this week. It is change that was denied at its time, and now the need for the change is overwhelming and cannot be turned back. Delayed, yes, but we are there.
And this reminds me, I hope that eventual release of Trump and Deutsche Bank documents DOOMS Anthony Kennedy and his son.
lee
@Elizabelle: Yep McConnell already said that no matter what given the chance he’ll put another judge on the court no matter when it is.
So given the chance he’d do it between the election and the inauguration.
BlueNC
@Baud: I’m right here!
Baud
@Elizabelle: I doubt there is enough political will to pack the court right now. That would change if McConnell tries to replace RBG IMHO.
Baud
@BlueNC: You are amazing!
lee
One or both of those 2 need to spend time in prison.
Marcopolo
@Baud: I agree with you on the constitutional issue (and a number of folks on twitter did as well), but with the court packing we’ve seen over the last 3 1/2 years I don’t feel at all confident about how rulings on issues like this would go.
To that end, I’d point out that the SC just upheld what is basically a poll tax in FL yesterday.
As for the Electoral College, remember NE & ME currently do award their votes by the winner of Congressional Districts. I’m hoping sometime in my lifetime we see direct popular vote elections for President. I’d actually be curious how awarding electoral votes by Congressional districts nationwide compares to the current Electoral College set up in terms of favorability to Republicans. Would it be about the same, better, worse? It looks like it would pretty much guarantee a Biden victory in 2020. But a Clinton loss in 2016.
Mai naem mobile
@Elizabelle: if McConnell has three days, before the Dems take over, he would get a conservative justice on the USSC.
Elizabelle
@Mai naem mobile: Probably.
That would get me to take to the streets. Again.
Anyway, vote, vote, vote. And pack the USSCourt.
And implement a new plan of rolling terms — maybe 20 years at a time, that expire one after the other. No demographic bonanza for a horrible President, and certainty that a seat will be coming up.
Baud
@Marcopolo: NE and ME have so few electors that I think it doesn’t matter what they do in terms of splitting up their electors. If a big state does it, it can cause major problems if they gerrymander districts.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mai naem mobile: I wouldn’t put anything past McConnell, or a lame-duck Susan Collins. I can easily see her turning as vindictive as Lieberman
Elizabelle
@Baud: This makes me wonder if John Roberts might tell McConnell to cool his jets, behind the scenes.
But do hold that threat of court-packing over his head. That 5-person conservative majority was not fairly selected, and actively endangers our rule of law and the three-branches system.
WRT political will: that can change, and sometimes rapidly. I say hit them when conservatives are already on the ropes. Which they are, although propped up by their media assets.
Marcopolo
@WaterGirl: I don’t know the current TX numbers off the top of my head other than R’s currently hold majorities (not sure if they are supermajorities) in both chambers & the governorship. Generally speaking, holding a trifecta allows a political party to pass any kind of legislation they want–so long as it withstands constitutional review. So, yes, they could do this. Though as Baud pointed out there would be a court challenge to the first proposal.
Baud
@Mai naem mobile:
My guess is that he doesn’t if it’s after the election and we’ve taken back the Senate, for the reason I’ve mentioned above — Dems will pack the court. Right now, if Biden gets to replace RBG, the conservatives still have a majority. If we pack the court, they lose that.
WaterGirl
@Baud: I agree with you – that would be the tipping point. The Rs are not smart enough to quit while they are ahead.
Marcopolo
@Baud: The original sentence Matt wrote I was replying to was:
But yes.
Wapiti
Something I took as a bright spot of news: filling out my WA primary ballot today (got it yesterday, for the 4 Aug primary), I see that among the candidates running for governor we have Republicans, Trump Republicans, pre2016 Republicans, and people who identify as GOP. Republicans in disarray!
WaterGirl
@Marcopolo: I appreciate the info!
catclub
He can be trusted to do whatever he sees as best for him and his party.
If that means voting on a new SC justice after the Christmas break, but before jan 6, then so be it.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: I hope you’re right, and even more than that, I hope we don’t find out whether or not your are.
May RBG resign the day after Biden’s inauguration.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Agreed. The press release says she’s been in chemo for two months and is responding well. Hopefully, she can give us 6 more months.
catclub
I guess I need to start writing letters ( somebody tell me where)
asking why Forrest County in Mississippi is still named after Nathan Bedford Forrest, and why there is still a jefferson Davis County in Mississippi. We could change it to Hitler County and be only slightly
worse.
Marcopolo
In regards to RBG, first, I am sending her all the positive vibes I have. If only there were some way for folks to transfer some of their health to her. Second, McConnell declared his hypocrisy regarding appointing a SC judge late in a President’s 4th year months ago. Third, as a number of other folks on line have pointed out, the question isn’t would McConnell do it, the question is are there 4 R Senators who would balk at doing it. Romney’s the only one I would count on to do the right thing at this point in time. Definitely neither of my MO senators would try to stop it.
CaseyL
McConnell has already said he would replace any SCOTUS justice whose seat became empty, no matter when. The reporters laughed along with him when he said this.
sdhays
@Elizabelle: I like the proposal to just defang the lifetime appointment requirement. The Constitution says that judges “hold their office during good behavior”, but it doesn’t say that they must preside over the same court until they decide to leave. Create a rotation – a judge gets to sit on the Supreme Court for a long time – I think 18 years is the suggestion – and then they get rotated out to a lower court. A vacancy then appears periodically and on a schedule.
This stops the court from being so gameable. I just find it disgusting that justices are given the power to choose who picks their replacement. They have enough power already.
Poe Larity
A new way to stick it to the liberals:
Anti-mask protesters’ new weapon: wearing masks that offer no COVID-19 protection
Roger Moore
@Marcopolo:
I think doing it this way nationwide would probably favor them a bit more than the current EC system, if only because they were so effective in gerrymandering things after the 2010 census. But what they really want to do is not to do this nationwide. What they want to do is to change to this system in places where they’re worried about losing, but keep the old system where they think they’re likely to be able to keep winning the state. And I’m sure they’d be happy if the blue states switched to this system so they could get a few electoral votes from places like California and New York where they currently have no chance.
sdhays
@Marcopolo: Whoa, seriously? Sure, Rmoney voted to convict Dump (on only one count), but he still voted for Kavanaugh. He would absolutely vote to put Jared on the Supreme Court if RBG’s seat became available.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Marcopolo: at this point I wouldn’t be surprised by Romney one way or the other, but if I had to bet, I’d bet $50 or so that he would go along with Mitch in that scenario
and without explicitly wishing cancer on anyone (at least out loud, so to type, cause the truth is…. never mind), the perversity of the Universe in going after this lady again is just…. fuck you, Universe.
Elizabelle
Haven’t read this yet, but WRT the Electoral College:
Mother Jones (no paywall):
Another Monument to White Supremacy That Should Come Down? The Electoral College
A new book examines the racist history of how Americans pick presidents.
Cheryl from Maryland
@Elizabelle: That’s the normal progression as Sibley is owned by Hopkins. Same with my husband who has renal failure from kidney cancer (cancer-free but with the crap side effect of renal failure), he ended up at the Hopkins Transplant Center, which is also world-class.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
Sure, but they have to be almost as worried about Thomas as we are about RBG. That’s the problem with the current Supreme Court system; there’s so much riding on things like the health of individual justices. Imagine how different things would be if Thurgood Marshall had managed to stay on the court until he died- just after Clinton was inaugurated- instead of retiring a couple of years before.
Baud
@Roger Moore: I’m a little surprised Thomas hasn’t announced his retirement.
Elizabelle
@Cheryl from Maryland: re Sibley and Johns Hopkins: I did not know that. Thank you.
And my best to your husband. Glad he is receiving such excellent care.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: (what follows is gossip gleaned from twitter, so… FWIW. There should be font for that)
trump is said to want a Court fight, and feelers have been put out to Thomas, who (see above) hates his job and hangs on to it so spite liberals, and Alito who (see above again) doesn’t love the job and doesn’t want to be stuck there for at least four years. I wonder if people smarter that trump are pushing back on the idea that such a fight is a good thing for Rs.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
Thomas is in better health than RGB was in 2016, and I think he’s just as stubborn as she is about wanting to stay on the court. I’m sure there are people, probably including his wife Ginni, trying to convince him to retire. My worry is that he’ll retire if Trump loses, and they’ll try to ram through a replacement during the lame duck period.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Roger Moore: I would’ve bet just the other way, that Crazy Ginni encourages his spite. Purely speculative gossip on my part.
Jay C
@Marcopolo:
Well, a lot Republicans have thought that it would be more favorable to them: but, as pointed out, only really in large states, (like TX) where they can leverage their (gerrymandered) “red-district” advantage to pull out more EVs for the (R) candidate rather than (potentially) losing them all under the winner-take all system. ME and NE have, respectively, only 4 and 5 EVs, so their allocation system is unlike to change much: but if this were appled to, say TX (with its 36 Congressional districts), the national implications would be notable.
patroclus
Clarence Thomas, very loudly, promised that he’d stick it to us for 40 years, and he’s got 11 more to go. I do not see him EVER leaving before then. Regardless of any gossip, I trust that he is a man of his word.
Roger Moore
@Jay C:
The flip side of assigning electoral college votes by district is that it lets Republicans pick up some extra votes in deep blue states like California and New York, where they’re currently shut out. With current gerrymandering, the Democrats need to be ahead by something like 5% in the popular vote to have a decent chance of winning a majority in Congress. To put it another way, if Hillary had done just a little better in 2016, she would have won the EC under the current system but faced a strongly Republican House. That suggests the Republicans would have done better with EC votes assigned by House districts rather than the current system. That would obviously change if they lose their ability to gerrymander, though.
Matt McIrvin
@Marcopolo: Anyway, it isn’t going to happen nationwide–just in states that are in the process of swinging Democratic but have Republicans currently controlling the government strongly enough to pass legislation, which is a relatively short list.
Yutsano
@Cheryl from Maryland: Just curious: has he been put on Medicare yet? I hope everything goes well for him.
@Elizabelle: You’re not going to get that amendment go through. No way will 38 states agree to that, especially the rural states that would lose their equality in that scenario. That’s why there’s the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact which is sort of a sneaky way to subvert the Electoral College by using the rules of the Electoral College to basically undermine itself. Would it pass Supreme Court muster? Who knows.
WaterGirl
@Poe Larity: Un-fucking-believable. I truly loathe people who are happy to put other people’s lives at risk.
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: Oh, please please please let the Electoral College topple within the year.
Calouste
@Marcopolo:
From the perspective of the GOP, there is no point in awarding the Texas electoral votes by district. If a Democrat has a chance of winning Texas, they are going to win the election nationwide no matter what. The only possible benefit would be if they somehow could use it to enforce EV-by-district nationwide, but that seems far fetched.
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The hugest of Donald Trump’s many, many lies is that he has great instincts. This belief in the good of a Court fight would seem to be proof of that.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
Thanks, DougJ. I’m old enough to instantly recognize the nod to James Taylor, son of Chapel Hill, with Carolina on his mind.