With the usual preamble about counting chickens, hatchery, etc., this advisory from the Cook Political Report is amaze-balls:*
This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave. President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is trailing Biden by significant margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (8 points), Michigan (9 points), and Wisconsin (9 points). He’s even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina.
We’ve made changes to our Electoral College ratings to reflect this reality.
- Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
- Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category.
- Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.
- Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican.
These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).
Georgia a toss up? Jeebus, Mary and Joseph! And Trump has negative coattails too!
Republican strategists we’ve spoken with this week think Trump is close to the point of no return. A couple of others wondered if Trump had reached his “Katrina” moment: a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters.
In talking with strategists on both sides this last week, it’s also clear that Trump is dragging Republican congressional candidates with him as well.
Speaking of the no-coattailed orange carbuncle, his concern for America’s children is touching:
I disagree with @CDCgov on their very tough & expensive guidelines for opening schools. While they want them open, they are asking schools to do very impractical things. I will be meeting with them!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 8, 2020
It’s July. Schools open NEXT MONTH, and the CDC just issued guidelines, which Trump will now bully them into abandoning.
The school situation is serious. But speaking of “permanent loss of trust and faith,” we all know Trump wants to open schools (and on the cheap!) so they can function as daycare centers to goose parental productivity. He thinks if he can resurrect the economy from the smoking crater left by the massive impact of his pandemic mismanagement, he’ll have a chance in November. That’s what this is all about, period. And governors like DeSantis will follow him right off a goddamn cliff.
H/T: Valued commenter Marcopolo