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You are here: Home / Politics / Domestic Politics / ‘Blue tsunami,’ she says…

‘Blue tsunami,’ she says…

by Betty Cracker|  July 8, 20201:03 pm| 235 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Education, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, Trumpery

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With the usual preamble about counting chickens, hatchery, etc., this advisory from the Cook Political Report is amaze-balls:*

This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave. President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is trailing Biden by significant margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (8 points), Michigan (9 points), and Wisconsin (9 points). He’s even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina.

We’ve made changes to our Electoral College ratings to reflect this reality.

  • Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
  • Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category.
  • Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.
  • Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican.

These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).

Georgia a toss up? Jeebus, Mary and Joseph! And Trump has negative coattails too!

Republican strategists we’ve spoken with this week think Trump is close to the point of no return. A couple of others wondered if Trump had reached his “Katrina” moment: a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters.

In talking with strategists on both sides this last week, it’s also clear that Trump is dragging Republican congressional candidates with him as well.

Speaking of the no-coattailed orange carbuncle, his concern for America’s children is touching:

I disagree with @CDCgov on their very tough & expensive guidelines for opening schools. While they want them open, they are asking schools to do very impractical things. I will be meeting with them!!!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 8, 2020

It’s July. Schools open NEXT MONTH, and the CDC just issued guidelines, which Trump will now bully them into abandoning.

The school situation is serious. But speaking of “permanent loss of trust and faith,” we all know Trump wants to open schools (and on the cheap!) so they can function as daycare centers to goose parental productivity. He thinks if he can resurrect the economy from the smoking crater left by the massive impact of his pandemic mismanagement, he’ll have a chance in November. That’s what this is all about, period. And governors like DeSantis will follow him right off a goddamn cliff.

Open thread.

H/T: Valued commenter Marcopolo

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Reader Interactions

235Comments

  1. 1.

    Kropacetic

    July 8, 2020 at 1:06 pm

    Georgia a toss up? Jeebus, Mary and Joseph! And Trump has negative coattails too!

    Is that like a butt plug?

    I disagree with @CDCgov on their very tough & expensive guidelines for opening schools. While they want them open, they are asking schools to do very impractical things.

    I heard they even recommended…masks…the horror…

    I will be meeting with them!!!

    Nice government agency you have here.  Shame if something were to happen to it.

  2. 2.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 8, 2020 at 1:09 pm

    I’m glad he at least admitted he wants to do it on the cheap and carelessly. He’s given the Dems a big target.

    More seriously, I’ve been thinking a lot about just the physical facilities that would be needed to reopen schools. Someone suggested using movie theaters and auditoriums, but I’m just thinking about getting groups of 8, 12, and 16 You in and out of those long rows and big rooms with orderly social distancing…. Oy. Never mind the expense, the strain on already over-worked teachers, the cost of hiring more support staff, more teachers.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    July 8, 2020 at 1:11 pm

    My elder daughter is a teacher in a public elementary school. In the best of times, she manages to bring home nearly every bug that circulates in the winter (first-graders are not renowned for hygiene.) These are not the best of times.

  4. 4.

    Matt McIrvin

    July 8, 2020 at 1:11 pm

    Cook is seriously understating the polling situation–all four of their “Toss Up” states currently lean Democratic.

    As I’ve said, I am skeptical of Democrats’ ability to actually carry all of those states because they all have a notorious history of rigging elections, and in least two of them, the riggers are likely to be busy this time around. But the actual public opinion situation is good.

  5. 5.

    Baud

    July 8, 2020 at 1:13 pm

    A couple of others wondered if Trump had reached his “Katrina Tan Suit” moment:

    Dare we dream?

  6. 6.

    Roger Moore

    July 8, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    He thinks if he can resurrect the economy from the smoking crater left by the massive impact of his pandemic mismanagement, he’ll have a chance in November.

    And to do so, he’s doubling down on the same mismanagement that got us here in the first place.  Anyone with a remotely functioning brain can see where this is going. Unfortunately that excludes everyone in the Trump Administration.

  7. 7.

    dmsilev

    July 8, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    @Kropacetic:

    I will be meeting with them!!!

    I suppose in a sense that could be considered a step in the right direction, since he’s been basically ignoring the CDC up until now.

  8. 8.

    Villago Delenda Est

    July 8, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    Tsunami sirens are sounding across the country.  It’s coming, and it’s mean, and it will kick GOP names and take GOP ass.

  9. 9.

    Baud

    July 8, 2020 at 1:18 pm

    Cook is seriously understating the polling situation–all four of their “Toss Up” states currently lean Democratic.

    If @Matt McIrvin is feeling optimistic, I’m gonna go get some tape to measure the drapes with.

  10. 10.

    Leto

    July 8, 2020 at 1:18 pm

    @Baud: I’m wondering wtf else is it going to take? Full on nuclear war where he launches on 5 Nov? Cannibalism where he eats Pence’s heart on live TV (Kah-li-mah! Kah-li-mah! Kah-li-mah!)? Divorcing Melania and finally marrying Ivanka? I mean, at this point, wtf is it going to take that hasn’t been fully exposed?

  11. 11.

    Major Major Major Major

    July 8, 2020 at 1:20 pm

    It ain’t November yet. Who knows what else 2020 will bring. Will it benefit Trump enough to win? Seems unlikely, but who knows, given that we are in the stupidest timeline

  12. 12.

    stinger

    July 8, 2020 at 1:20 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: And now the bug teachers will be taking home is the coronavirus. Teachers will be out sick, not for 1-3 days, but for weeks. More, if their own kids or spouses get it and the teachers have to care for them. Districts will need to greatly increase their substitute teacher budgets.

  13. 13.

    different-church-lady

    July 8, 2020 at 1:21 pm

    You know who should have listened to Hillary’s warning about Trump?

    The GOP.

  14. 14.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 1:21 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I haven’t seen the CDC guidelines, but the fact that it took them so long to issue them tells me they originally came up with something more substantial that was whittled down, and now Trump wants to dilute it further.

    Maybe in addition to the economic boost he expects, Trump also thinks he’ll be a hero to parents if he forces schools to reopen. He’s a sociopath who doesn’t give a shit about his own children (except for the grotesque lust for Princess Complicity), so the safety angle goes right over his head…

  15. 15.

    Baud

    July 8, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    @Leto: The only thing left is for him to stop hurting the right people.

  16. 16.

    different-church-lady

    July 8, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Is it possible to place odds on whether Trump will start caring if people die before November? Because that’s the only way he turns this around.

  17. 17.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    & expensive

    Fuck off cheapskate and give us back our money. Our kids, unlike you and yours, actually have to compete to get into college.

  18. 18.

    different-church-lady

    July 8, 2020 at 1:23 pm

    @Baud: He’s reached his naked emperor moment. Ain’t nobody gonna un-see it.

  19. 19.

    Bex

    July 8, 2020 at 1:24 pm

    Pete’s on it.  His book, Trust:  America’s Best Chance will be out October 6.

  20. 20.

    Leto

    July 8, 2020 at 1:25 pm

    @Baud:  so never. Roger.

  21. 21.

    Brachiator

    July 8, 2020 at 1:25 pm

    It’s July. Schools open NEXT MONTH, and the CDC just issued guidelines, which Trump will now bully them into abandoning.

    Trump is also threatening to withhold funding from schools if they defy him. Obedience is all. Just sickening.

    He thinks if he can resurrect the economy from the smoking crater left by the massive impact of his pandemic mismanagement, he’ll have a chance in November.

    It’s all about his ego and reputation. He defines himself by big numbers in the Dow and low unemployment.
    And yet, it’s still early and segments of the economy are worsening. United Airlines said it might have to furlough 36,000 workers, about 40 percent of its staff.
    Trump is mismanaging the pandemic and the economy. It’s getting tougher to see how things can hold together until possible rescue in November.

  22. 22.

    PsiFighter37

    July 8, 2020 at 1:25 pm

    No idea why ME-02 was ‘Likely Republican’ to begin with. They just sent back a Democrat to Congress this past election, who, if I had to guess, will likely win reelection.

    The fact the CW is moving PA/WI/MI to lean D is big – they will always lag so they can show a ‘horse race’, but moving those puts Biden over 270. If they ever more AZ/NC/FL there, we are hitting wave territory.

    What I’d really like to see is TX in the tossup column.

  23. 23.

    Ken

    July 8, 2020 at 1:25 pm

    President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency

    Meaning the lowest job ratings of any presidency ever, though not quite to the “Nixon resigns” level.

  24. 24.

    JPL

    July 8, 2020 at 1:26 pm

    @Kropacetic: He’s gonna pull more funding.    He will then give it to the evangelicals to pray to god for a miracle.   After trump was elected I spoke with someone who worked at the CDC and they have been having funding cuts for awhile.    They have walked on eggshells to placate him all along.

    We’re all gonna die because of his antics.

  25. 25.

    The Moar You Know

    July 8, 2020 at 1:26 pm

    It’s July. Schools open NEXT MONTH, and the CDC just issued guidelines, which Trump will now bully them into abandoning.

    Great way to turn a million deaths to 20 million.

    The man has ambition, gotta give him that.

  26. 26.

    different-church-lady

    July 8, 2020 at 1:27 pm

    Adam Serwer says what I’ve been saying all along:

    Time and time again we’ve seen that people who experience politics primarily through twitter are analyzing events through a really warped lens that does not reflect reality. Too many of us are still making the same mistake because it’s easy and doesn’t require actual work.

    Journalism is suffering from a laziness malady, and that’s why they embraced Twitter in a bear-hug. Now they’re so addicted they can see a way out, even though they can tell it’s doing a lot of damage to their internal organs.

  27. 27.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    July 8, 2020 at 1:28 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Someone suggested using movie theaters

    Movie theaters around me have gone to a model with fewer, reserved seats. Big overstuffed recliners, I guess to rival your comfortable TV watching at home. And some provide high-calorie junk food as well.

    Students might enjoy classes in that environment, but it’s probably not going to help the situation much.

  28. 28.

    Leto

    July 8, 2020 at 1:28 pm

    @Ken: are we at W throwing shoes at levels?

  29. 29.

    hueyplong

    July 8, 2020 at 1:29 pm

    @Leto: Should we presume the Supreme Court would ok Trump’s marriage to his own daughter under the Religious Exception rule?

  30. 30.

    MattF

    July 8, 2020 at 1:30 pm

    One should be cautious about polling. As the saying goes, prediction is hard, particularly about the future. Specifically, any polling you see is filtered through retrospective data in various ways– the future is still as unknown as ever.

  31. 31.

    Gravenstone

    July 8, 2020 at 1:31 pm

    Maine as likely Democratic is a joy. Because I want to see Susie Collins shot down in flames and spiraling all the way in, no parachutes (golden or otherwise).

  32. 32.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    July 8, 2020 at 1:31 pm

    @different-church-lady: If they’re smart they’ll start using the Disney animatronic Trump for press conferences, which could simulate empathy a lot more convincingly than the life form currently occupying the Oval Office.

  33. 33.

    E.

    July 8, 2020 at 1:33 pm

    For those with the stomach for anecdotal data: I own a bakery (in northern CA) and spend over $2,000 a week on butter, flour, sugar, chocolate, and a variety of berries, cheeses, meats, and other foods. Much of this gets purchased in person, at places like Costco. I am seeing clear signs of hoarding begin again. Right now it’s dried beans, vinegar, salt, bleach, the stuff true preppers stock up on. But I saw an awful lot of toilet paper getting pushed out the door, too. I think people are bracing for a long period indoors and out of circulation, regardless what governmental mandates are or are not issued. I don’t think the uptick in case numbers is totally lost on people. Even some of the RWNJs are showing up in my bakery masked. Trump is definitely starting, at least, to lose control of the narrative.

  34. 34.

    Gravenstone

    July 8, 2020 at 1:33 pm

    @stinger: The substitute teacher pools aren’t going to be nearly enough to cover the looming demand if this insanity goes through.

  35. 35.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 1:33 pm

    @PsiFighter37:

    What I’d really like to see is TX in the tossup column.

    Me too. I want to Trump to win fewer than 200 EC votes. I’m greedy that way!

  36. 36.

    Jinchi

    July 8, 2020 at 1:34 pm

    @Roger Moore: Anyone with a remotely functioning brain can see where this is going. Unfortunately that excludes everyone in the Trump Administration.

    This is what amazes me. His odds of re-election would go up dramatically if he worked to get the pandemic under control, now. Schools could reopen if our case loads dropped on a timeline seen in countries across the world. There are a series of straightforward and mostly simple ways to do that, the least of which is telling all his die-hard supporters to wear a mask for a couple of weeks, and giving the Governors of Florida and Arizona permission to shut things down until their numbers drop.

    But he just can’t do it. Not even to save himself.

  37. 37.

    Kropacetic

    July 8, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    @JPL: He’s gonna pull more funding.    He will then give it to the evangelicals to pray to god for a miracle.

    I thought prayer was free.  That’s why churches spend all their money on images graven in gold.  And court settlements.

  38. 38.

    MattF

    July 8, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    @E.: This is consistent with what I saw on my shopping trip yesterday. Lots of masks on people in the street, which hadn’t previously been the case.

  39. 39.

    Leto

    July 8, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    @hueyplong: that or the Republican “We do want we want, go fuck yourself” rule that the court seems to uphold.

  40. 40.

    Mallard Filmore

    July 8, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

     

    As I’ve said, I am skeptical of Democrats’ ability to actually carry all of those states because they all have a notorious history of rigging elections, and in least two of them, the riggers are likely to be busy this time around.

    Are they in states where the schools will have a sane plan to reopen? A few thousand dead children is going to have its own impact.

  41. 41.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 1:36 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:

    They are trying to address concerns here though, and the administrators who are setting the rules are also in the building so have that perspective. We have some parents who will not send their kids so they’re getting an online option, which was portrayed as kind of a win/win because fewer kids = easier distancing.

    Denmark asked families who have one parent at home to do distance learning to free up space for kids where both parents work. That would never fly here but I thought it was interesting.

  42. 42.

    cain

    July 8, 2020 at 1:37 pm

    @PsiFighter37: What I’d really like to see is TX in the tossup column.

    The ‘rona will take care of that.. the party of personal responsibility is going to continue to make mistakes and those people are going to die.

    You can bet that Republican leadership in Texas are panicking because they got caught up in the culture war. None of the conservative voters are going to take responsibility — so they will either stay home or they will vote democrat.. quietly, cooly, completely without incident.

  43. 43.

    Soprano2

    July 8, 2020 at 1:38 pm

    @different-church-lady: The odds of Trump caring about anyone but himself are zero. He’s not capable of caring about others.

  44. 44.

    Jinchi

    July 8, 2020 at 1:38 pm

    @Betty Cracker: I’d like something closer to this result.

  45. 45.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 1:38 pm

    @E.: Interesting. I admit that before the latest spike here in Florida, I got a bit lax about food stores. We always keep 2 weeks’ worth during hurricane season, but I’d let it dwindle from peak pandemic levels. When cases started spiking again here, I stocked up again, including TP.

    PS: Glad your bakery is hanging in there. I’ve wondered how you’re getting along since the last comment I saw from you a while back, when you were super-worried.

  46. 46.

    Danielx

    July 8, 2020 at 1:39 pm

    @Leto:

    Don’t know about shoes, but if I had the opportunity to throw rotten produce without getting shot by the Secret Service….

  47. 47.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    July 8, 2020 at 1:40 pm

    To date, the bloated mediocrity has relied on people remaining silent in their positions and silent after, even as he fucked them over and fired them or forced them out. I suspect that his luck will be completely drained out on this one, as researchers and epidemiologists sound alarms within and scream loudly as they’re pushed out the door.  If pushed out, what motive do any of them have to be quiet about anything anymore?

  48. 48.

    schrodingers_cat

    July 8, 2020 at 1:41 pm

    @Baud: I can help! I saw your comment yesterday where you tagged me. Thank you.

  49. 49.

    cain

    July 8, 2020 at 1:42 pm

    @Jinchi: But he just can’t do it. Not even to save himself.

    But the Republican party won’t do it either. It’s unbelievable. They have been absolutely quiet through this whole ordeal.

  50. 50.

    Kent

    July 8, 2020 at 1:42 pm

    279 electoral votes is not a tsunami.  It’s a fucking nail biter

    Reagan 525, Mondale 13 is a tsunami.

  51. 51.

    Hoodie

    July 8, 2020 at 1:44 pm

    @Jinchi: Too late now. He made a bet on the virus magically going away because he is incredibly lazy and has no ability to do any real work (Mary Trump confirms that in her book). Ultimately, it’s also because he is playing with house money. Just like with his casinos, other people will be on the losing end of his big bet. It’s the core of his sociopathy, he gets to paint himself as a bold risk-taker while avoiding the consequences. He goes down and blames it all on liberal conspiracies and immigrants. I long for the day he ends up in a prison hospital coughing up his lungs, but that likely will never happen.

  52. 52.

    Soprano2

    July 8, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    Even MAGA’s can see the reality if it’s right around them. The infected count on the stupidity in MO that was Camp Kanakuk is now 82 (they had a week of camp, I still cannot believe it!). Perusing the web site of my local newspaper I see that a lifeguard at a mid-sized town to the south of here has COVID. Looking at today’s “here’s where today’s new cases visited” I see Bass Pro and Home Depot on the list, as well as several restaurants and a bar where they have karaoke every night. I’m holding my breath about the birthday party some of our regulars had at their house over a week ago; so far no one is sick. One of our servers’ husbands was possibly exposed at his workplace, so she’s getting a test to make sure she doesn’t have it.  All I can say is hurry up next Tuesday, when our City Council will be voting on a mask ordinance. They need to do it while our case counts in this county are in the single digits every day.

  53. 53.

    MattF

    July 8, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    @Kent: Republicans, by the same criteria, are up to 188 EV. So, it’s a significant lead for Dems, and any additions to Dem EVs adds to a majority.

  54. 54.

    Jinchi

    July 8, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    @Hoodie: he gets to paint himself as a bold risk-taker while avoiding the consequences.

    I doubt he’ll get away with that this time. This is a guy who has serious risks of bankruptcy or jail if he loses and he’s poisoning his jury pool in the latter case.

  55. 55.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    July 8, 2020 at 1:47 pm

    @E.:

    Had to get some interior painting stuff at Home Depot yesterday, and had hoped for some cleaning solutions, toilet paper and towel paper as well.

    Shelves were as barren as Holly Hunter’s womb in “Raising Arizona” on those items.

  56. 56.

    cain

    July 8, 2020 at 1:48 pm

    @Hoodie:

    He needs to be his sweet self till November.. after that he can fuck off however he wants – get the ‘rona, get imprisoned, whatever.

    I’m actually hoping that he skips the country like the traitor he is and ends up in Russia. It will shame his followers to to no end. That he turned into a total traitor and supported by an entire party who are also on the Russian dole and we can finally end the Republican party for good.

  57. 57.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 1:48 pm

    It isn’t just his cheapness. Republicans never understood the huge role public schools play in communities, particularly the communities who vote for Republicans. As they have stripped out more and more public supports public schools have been frantically filling the hole. In a lot of places they’re all we have left. If you make 32k a year and they pull public schools out from under you, there’s no “community” left. The anxiety without them is just off the charts. They’re not a “service” in this town- they’re the center.

  58. 58.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 1:51 pm

    @Kent:

    It’s fun to think about and I think we deserve some fun, but I have never seen an election where Republicans didn’t “come home” so I’m assuming “close” and not fun at all :)

    But Texas would be great.

  59. 59.

    patrick II

    July 8, 2020 at 1:52 pm

    McConnell is sitting on a funding bill right now that would help states fund school re-opening.  Trump, Mitch, Pence, et al,  want things to happen but they don’t have the skills or want to spend the time, and most importantly to them, spend the money that would be required for a successful school re-opening.

    It’s not important to them that our kids and teachers be safe unless it helps the vote. They don’t want to spend time or money, or make any political comprimises to their “everybody is on their own and deserves what they get” political philosophy.

  60. 60.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 1:53 pm

    This presidency*s handling of the coronavirus is going to be studied in the history books forever.  It’s a complete cascade of failure, all because one jackass believed all the wrong things, one after another.

  61. 61.

    Kelly

    July 8, 2020 at 1:54 pm

    @E.: We do our shopping at a small town in rural Oregon. The area consistently votes 60% to 75% Republican. Shoppers have gone from few masks to nearly universal masks in the last couple weeks. Most stores staff 100% masked. Exception is the hardware store I mentioned below.

  62. 62.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 1:54 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    whether Trump will start caring if people die

    Trump is not capable of caring about other people, even his own family, and believes that people who do care about others are faking it for ulterior motives.

    And his own attempts to fake it are so transparently bad.

    And every time he does try to fake it, he undercuts his own narrative within days, because he is incapable of seeing himself as other see him.

    So no.   This will not happen, because it cannot.

  63. 63.

    patrick II

    July 8, 2020 at 1:55 pm

    @Jeffro:

    And the other jackasses went along with it, for their own ambitions, and others went along thinking they could ameliorate the problems.

    Trump can’t do this alone.

  64. 64.

    Major Major Major Major

    July 8, 2020 at 1:55 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    Is it possible to place odds on whether Trump will start caring if people die before November? Because that’s the only way he turns this around.

    I’m not sure he could turn this around if he wanted to at this late date. Three million positive tests means roughly thirty million afflicted Americans, one-third of the positive tests were this last month… unless he locks down half the country and can convince Congress to dole out a trillion dollars, this ship is not rightable by November.

  65. 65.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 1:55 pm

    @patrick II:

    There’s been no coverage of it but Democrats have done a good job pushing it and they started months ago. Patty Murray is kind of the lead for Democrats on education funding and she’s good.

  66. 66.

    JMG

    July 8, 2020 at 1:56 pm

    Paper goods of all kinds, even napkins, were at zero on my trip to the Stop ‘n Shop last week. BUT, it was the start of the 4th of July weekend, which is when the Cape gets its full contingent of second home residents and summer weekly rentals, people who’re going to stock up on paper goods even if there’s no pandemic. So I don’t know how much to read into it. Everything else was in normal supply.

  67. 67.

    Major Major Major Major

    July 8, 2020 at 1:57 pm

    @Kent:

    279 electoral votes is not a tsunami. It’s a fucking nail biter

    It’s 279 votes without winning a single tossup state; by that measure Trump has 188.

    ETA: as @MattF has noted!

  68. 68.

    jonas

    July 8, 2020 at 1:58 pm

    @Ken: Naw, he’s still hovering around 40%. I think Nixon sunk as low as 23 or 25% shortly before he resigned. But of course that was back when many Republicans still held the good of the nation above their own party or president. Not so much, these days.

  69. 69.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 1:58 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est: I, for one, cannot wait to hear the skitterings of the rats as they try to flee the trumptanic.

  70. 70.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 1:58 pm

    @Ken:

    Meaning the lowest job ratings of any presidency ever

    No.

    W reached 27%.

    Though if anyone can smash through the crazification factor floor, I’d bet on Trump during a pandemic.

    (Dick Cheney had reached 19% by the end of the W unpleasantness)

  71. 71.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 1:59 pm

    @Leto:Cannibalism where he eats Pence’s heart on live TV (Kah-li-mah! Kah-li-mah! Kah-li-mah!)?

    L

    O

    L

  72. 72.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 2:00 pm

    Can someone explain this to me?

    Remarkably, Biden's vulnerability on the left (Sanders+Warren = 89-3) is indistinguishable from the challenge he faces from the center (Klobuchar+Buttigieg+HBloomberg = 87-6).
    Warren supporters even back Biden against Trump by a wider margin than Biden primary supporters.

    — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) July 8, 2020

    Is he saying Warren supporters are more in favor of Biden than…Biden supporters?

  73. 73.

    Jinchi

    July 8, 2020 at 2:01 pm

    @Kay: 279 seems close because we’re thinking of the 538 total, but it’s not really. Cook’s estimate is currently 279 (D), 188 (R), 71 (toss up).  As a percentage that would be 52% (D), 35% (R), 13% (toss up).

    So Biden has a 17% lead in the electoral vote and is ahead in 3 out of 4 of the toss-up states.

    He’s in really good shape and Trump refuses to do anything that might save himself.

  74. 74.

    Matt McIrvin

    July 8, 2020 at 2:02 pm

    @Ken: Many Presidents have, at some point, had much worse approval ratings than Trump has now. George W. Bush did late in his second term, as did Papa Bush in ’92 and Jimmy Carter right at the end.

    Trump’s base is really stable. What’s historically unusual is how consistent and stable his disapproval is–he’s never had majority approval.

  75. 75.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 2:02 pm

     

    The school situation is serious.

    Ima just leave this here:
    At least 1,335 people have tested positive from child care facilities in Texas, the state’s Department of Health and Human Services reported Monday, citing figures from Friday.
    Of those infected, 894 were staff members and 441 were children. The cases came from 883 child care facilities that are open in the state, DHHS said.

  76. 76.

    Roger Moore

    July 8, 2020 at 2:02 pm

    @Ken:

    Meaning the lowest job ratings of any presidency ever

    Not even close.  The thing that’s been remarkable about Trump is how stable his ratings have been.  His ratings have been worse overall than most presidents, but that’s because he’s basically never been in positive territory for his whole term, not because his worst ratings have been historically bad.  Several presidents, including Carter, both Bushes, and Truman got much worse approval than Trump’s worst.

  77. 77.

    WaterGirl

    July 8, 2020 at 2:02 pm

    @Betty Cracker: It’s like we’re in some horror movie where you’re shouting “Get off the bus!” or “Don’t go in there!” or “the killer is on the train!”

    We’re shouting, but unfortunately we are on the train and can’t get off, and there is a sociopathic imbecile with oppositional disorder running the train.

    I don’t care for this movie.  Can we have a different one, please.

  78. 78.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 2:03 pm

    Dave Weigel
    @daveweigel
    ·3h
    Eye-popping number in Monmouth poll: Just 18% of voters think “defund the police” means “get rid of police,” while 77% say it means “change the way police operate.”
    Trump rn is running ads portraying “Biden’s America” as one w/o police

    Either they’re getting smarter or they no longer believe a word he says. There’s a whole school of thought in Trumpology that says if Trump opposes it it immediately becomes more popular, which is what happened with immigration.

  79. 79.

    schrodingers_cat

    July 8, 2020 at 2:03 pm

    @Leto: @Jeffro: Since when is racism funny?
    Worshipers of Kali are not cannibals. I am guessing that this is a reference to that godawful and racist Indiana Jones movie.

  80. 80.

    MattF

    July 8, 2020 at 2:07 pm

    @Roger Moore: In fact Trump is now barely above 40%, which is as low as his approval has ever gone. Also, I should add, his approval has never (recently) been above 46%.

  81. 81.

    Jinchi

    July 8, 2020 at 2:07 pm

    @Betty Cracker: Is he saying Warren supporters are more in favor of Biden than…Biden supporters?

    Yes. Because it’s really two different questions.

    • The primary (I like Biden better than the other Democrats),
    • The general (I like Biden better than Trump.)

    Warren’s supporters are more liberal, hate Trump and overwhelmingly support the Democrat. Some of Biden’s primary voters are conservative and Republican curious.

  82. 82.

    Matt McIrvin

    July 8, 2020 at 2:08 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    Is he saying Warren supporters are more in favor of Biden than…Biden supporters?

    I think it makes sense. Biden’s primary supporters probably included a small fraction of conservative crossover voters who wanted to vote for the most centrist candidate, or specifically against Sanders or Warren. Given Biden vs. Trump they’ll choose Trump.

    Warren’s primary supporters were all liberals and progressives (but not those left-populist weirdos with sneaking Trump admiration; they’d be more likely to go for Bernie). Given a Biden vs. Trump choice they might be sorely disappointed but they’ll vote Biden.

  83. 83.

    mrmoshpotato

    July 8, 2020 at 2:09 pm

    I will be meeting with them!!!

    Ok, but chill the fuck out first.

    Also, can you bring back the pig face for Dump’s rage tweets (really all of them), Ms. Cracker, or maybe a picture of COVID-19?

  84. 84.

    Kropacetic

    July 8, 2020 at 2:09 pm

    @Betty Cracker: Is he saying Warren supporters are more in favor of Biden than…Biden supporters?

    Operation chaos, baby!

    Or, in more detail:

    @Matt McIrvin: I think it makes sense. Biden’s primary supporters probably included a small fraction of conservative crossover voters who wanted to vote for the most centrist candidate, or specifically against Sanders or Warren. Given Biden vs. Trump they’ll choose Trump.

     

    Warren’s primary supporters were all liberals and progressives (but not those left-populist weirdos with sneaking Trump admiration; they’d be more likely to go for Bernie).

    By about 4 points it seems.

  85. 85.

    different-church-lady

    July 8, 2020 at 2:10 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Well, he can’t lock down half the country without losing major portions of his base. So, sucks to be him. And us.

  86. 86.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 2:10 pm

    @Kay:

    There’s a whole school of thought in Trumpology that says if Trump opposes it it immediately becomes more popular, which is what happened with immigration.

    Makes sense. May that be the pig’s legacy, that he made racism, sexism, xenophobia and jingoism unpopular among a greater share of the population.

  87. 87.

    jonas

    July 8, 2020 at 2:11 pm

    “Hey just pack your kids off to school! Maybe they’ll be safe! Who knows! Whatever!” is, um, generally not a well-received proposal, even in rural areas where it’s all about “muh preshus rights!”

    As his niece writes, Trump has spent his entire life in a bubble where, shielded by his wealth and the case of NPD that can be diagnosed outside the solar system, he has convinced himself that things are so simply because he wills it. North Korea is denuclearized! Poof! It’s done! The virus is gone. Poof! Go back to school! Poof! He’s going to will himself reelected as well, and talking him down from that won’t be fun…

  88. 88.

    Matt McIrvin

    July 8, 2020 at 2:11 pm

    @Kay: This is an area where reading Twitter can really distort your political vision, since there, the “defund the police” folks are very clear that they really do mean “there should be no such thing as police, or anything resembling police”.

  89. 89.

    Fraud Guy

    July 8, 2020 at 2:12 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    We are lucky on physical space.  Last year, our local school district finished a new grammar school building and was planning on selling/leasing out the old K-2 and 3-5 schools.

    Next year, they will be using the K-2 for 1-2, and the old 3-5 for 6th instead of the junior high building (since it is partially leased), with K & 3-5 in the new building, thus creating space for every grade through HS (and doing semi remote for that).

  90. 90.

    stinger

    July 8, 2020 at 2:14 pm

    @Gravenstone: My thought exactly. I’d considered getting recertified (elementary) so I could sub, but the health risk is too great.

  91. 91.

    Fraud Guy

    July 8, 2020 at 2:15 pm

    He’s going to will himself reelected as well, and talking him down from that won’t be fun…

    @jonas: And there are many in his administration who will not try, and may encourage him in this delusion.

  92. 92.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 2:15 pm

    @Jinchi:

    Thank you. I hope it’s huge but I don’t need huge. I just need them to go. I wish it was Halloween.

  93. 93.

    Jinchi

    July 8, 2020 at 2:15 pm

    @patrick II: McConnell is sitting on a funding bill right now that would help states fund school re-opening.

    Of course, Trump could steal a couple of billion from the couple of billion he stole to build his wall if he really wanted to.

  94. 94.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 2:16 pm

    Aaaannd the CDC already caved, according to Pence:

    CDC will issue new guidance on school openings, Pence says, after criticism from Trump https://t.co/KvxBxbIFn5

    — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 8, 2020

    So, the nation’s professional public health organization is going to water down protections for schoolchildren and staff because the screaming orange gourd who bungled the pandemic response says so. Great.

  95. 95.

    sdhays

    July 8, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    I disagree with @CDCgov on their very tough & expensive guidelines for opening schools.

    I would have thought “tough” guidelines would have given him a thrill.

    God, I wish he would just fly to Brazil and french kiss Bolsonaro and get his COVID-19 on. He seems hell bent on imposing it on millions of Americans, so he should lead by example, for once.

  96. 96.

    Kent

    July 8, 2020 at 2:18 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    Is he saying Warren supporters are more in favor of Biden than…Biden supporters?

    it is possible that some Biden primary supporters were Republicans who will come home to Trump in the general.  While no Warren supporters were.   That’s the only logical explanation

  97. 97.

    sdhays

    July 8, 2020 at 2:19 pm

    @Betty Cracker: To be fair, no one seems to be paying attention to any guidelines anyway. Pretty much all of the states opened back up despite not meeting the guidelines – with predictable results.

    ETA: I pretty much see the CDC as a completely irrelevant institution until January 21, 2021.

  98. 98.

    mrmoshpotato

    July 8, 2020 at 2:19 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    And to do so, he’s doubling down on the same non-mis
    management that got us here in the first place.  Anyone with a remotely functioning brain can see where this is going. Unfortunately that excludes everyone in the Trump Administration.

    Fixed. Mismanagement would like a word. These fuckers didn’t even try to manage this. What with all the mobster-style theft of PPE, leaving states to fend for themselves and compete with each other for limited, vital resources, saying the virus will just “disappear,” etc.

    Fuckers.

  99. 99.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 2:19 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Honestly, I feel like sensible people knew they didn’t mean that. We get more choices than “horrible police or no police”. Why wouldn’t we?

    I haven’t read it but I was amused to see on Twitter that the actual BLM written goals don’t include statues. They’re not statue-based. Because of course they’re not.

  100. 100.

    MattF

    July 8, 2020 at 2:21 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: As they say…

  101. 101.

    Jinchi

    July 8, 2020 at 2:21 pm

    @Betty Cracker: They did the same on the state reopening guidelines.

    CDC guidelines shelved by Trump administration spell out far stricter road map to reopening  – May 14th

    Fortunately, nothing bad happened after that.

    (Kidding aside, that was just 3 weeks before caseloads started exploding again and probably directly responsible for it.)

  102. 102.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    July 8, 2020 at 2:22 pm

    I was at WalMart this morning to pick up prescriptions and everyone was masked. There’s a sign on the door saying a mask is required and a “greeter” out there to make sure everyone follows the rules. This is in a NW Chicago suburb.

  103. 103.

    Steeplejack

    July 8, 2020 at 2:23 pm

    @Brachiator:

    Just wanted to say that I saw your Chromebook tip yesterday (day before?) and say thanks. I just got a notice yesterday on my Chromebook (Asus Flip C100PA) that I’m getting no more system updates. That’s a bummer, but it’s still going strong. I’m not in the market for a new one yet, but I’m keeping up with developments.

  104. 104.

    Citizen Alan

    July 8, 2020 at 2:25 pm

    @joel hanes: I’m convinced W only got own to 27% by trying to pass immigration reform and causing the xeno wing of the GOP to turn on him. No chance of that happening with Shitgibbon.

  105. 105.

    Barbara

    July 8, 2020 at 2:26 pm

    @PsiFighter37:

    No idea why ME-02 was ‘Likely Republican’ to begin with. They just sent back a Democrat to Congress this past election, who, if I had to guess, will likely win reelection.

    I know that Cook tries to maintain a reputation as a straight shooter but having observed him for a long time, it does seem to me he has a slight Republican bias.

  106. 106.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 2:26 pm

    @Jinchi:

    When this is over we need to look at which institutions held up and which failed. It was a stress test and a lot of them failed.

  107. 107.

    OGLiberal

    July 8, 2020 at 2:27 pm

    @Leto: The natural progression of a Trump voter:

    1. Fake News!  Soro based operatives are trying to fool everybody with lies.
    2. He may have done these things – not sure – but if he did he probably didn’t know those things were wrong.  HIs advisors are really failing him!
    3. OK, he did it but BENGHAZI!  Lock her up! Lock her up!
    4. Holy shit, those things are all really fucking awesome!
    5. “Dear Mr. President – Sir, I would like request that when the nuclear winter is over and you are planning to grill up a little Karen Pence and Jared on the barbie, can you invite me and my friends?  And while we’re there can we get a piece of your hot daughter-wife?  We’ll shares ours with you in return.  Sincerely – Guy at Diner in Ohio”

    Actually, they’d probably just go from 1 to 5 in a couple days and skip the other unneeded steps.

  108. 108.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 2:27 pm

    @mrmoshpotato:

    These fuckers didn’t even try to manage this

    au contraire, mon ami.   Trump and Kushner expended and continue to expend considerable effort to manage the pandemic situation to achieve their goals, which are:

    1.  To maximize the opportunities for profiteering, and for grifting off the profiteers.
    2. To use the crisis to distract from their pervasive corruption and criminality in all other areas.
    3. To destroy the proper functioning of the US government and the rule of law in this nation.

    Preserving the lives and livelihoods of other Americans has never entered into it.

  109. 109.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 8, 2020 at 2:28 pm

    Did he really?

    Eliza Relman @eliza_relman 1h
    Pence on schools reopening: “The best expert I know on this topic is my wife, Karen.”

    I never heard about Mother’s training in epidemiology

  110. 110.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 2:30 pm

    @Citizen Alan:

    the streams of caskets and maimed troops coming back from Afghanistan and Iraq did not help, nor did the complete lack of progress in those wars.

  111. 111.

    MomSense

    July 8, 2020 at 2:31 pm

    @PsiFighter37:

    They sent a very conservative, gun -totin’ Democrat who voted against one of the Articles of Impeachment to Congress.
    The district is old, white, conservative, gun loving, and for the most part COVID free.  They aren’t happy with our Governor who closed shit down over the hoax flu.
    It’s always a challenge in CD 2 and I actually think lean Republican is accurate.

  112. 112.

    Baud

    July 8, 2020 at 2:31 pm

    @Kay:

    When this is over we need to look at which institutions held up

    Balloon Juice!

  113. 113.

    Mary G

    July 8, 2020 at 2:31 pm

    @E.: I’ve starting ordering an extra box of cereal, etc., to stock up, because I can see this growth getting even farther out of control. My Instacart person yesterday was not wearing either a mask or gloves, as the rest of them have been doing since this started, and I yelled at them. They sent a mealy mouthed set of corporate buzzwords that doesn’t mean anything. The same at Pence’s press conference this morning. Uncle Joe must forbid everyone in his administration from ever saying “under the president’s leadership,” again. Just lead, don’t brag about it while not doing it.

    I have more flour than I need now, and finally broke down and bought a pound of yeast from King Arthur that arrives tomorrow. I’ll never use it all; if somebody would like a few ounces, send an email through a front pager and I’ll mail it to you.

  114. 114.

    Kropacetic

    July 8, 2020 at 2:32 pm

    @OGLiberal: He may have done these things – not sure – but if he did he probably didn’t know those things were wrong.  HIs advisors are really failing him!

    This speaks to the worst problem, right in the beginning. His R defenders would say “he’s new to politics.”

    The problem isn’t that he was new to politics.  He had never made an ethical consideration about anything in his life.

  115. 115.

    Leto

    July 8, 2020 at 2:32 pm

    @OGLiberal: “He really looks like a guy I could have a beer with!”

  116. 116.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 2:33 pm

    For real:

    A potential new addition to President Trump’s future rallies: statues.

    The idea has been discussed by White House and Trump campaign aides, but no final decision has been made, sources familiar with the planning told ABC News. It’s also not clear who exactly the statues would resemble, but sources say one idea was for “America’s Founding Fathers.”

    Maybe they could get someone to do a fake Mt. Rushmore background.

  117. 117.

    geg6

    July 8, 2020 at 2:33 pm

    I don’t think Trump thinks this.  I think this is Javanka level stupid.

  118. 118.

    Baud

    July 8, 2020 at 2:34 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    I hope they use mimes to portray the Founding Fathers.

  119. 119.

    Benw

    July 8, 2020 at 2:35 pm

    @Betty Cracker: FFS that was fast!

    @Kay: hey, remember 5 centuries ago when the Park Rangers went rogue and told Trump to fuck off? They’re just about the only ones I can think of who stood up for themselves. Biden should put them in charge of all the failed agencies until he can scrub all the henchmen!

  120. 120.

    Leto

    July 8, 2020 at 2:35 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Does MOTHER know about this Karen person? /s

  121. 121.

    Major Major Major Major

    July 8, 2020 at 2:37 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    Is he saying Warren supporters are more in favor of Biden than…Biden supporters?

    If I’m reading it correctly, it’s just a dumb claim for Nate to make. 96% of Warren supporters said they’d vote for Biden–4% going for third-party candidates, not voting, or Don’t Know. Whereas 96% of Biden supporters said they’d vote for Biden–1% for Trump, 3% for third party/NV/DK.

  122. 122.

    Baud

    July 8, 2020 at 2:37 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    So that’s where the whole “Karen” thing comes from.

  123. 123.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 8, 2020 at 2:39 pm

    @Betty Cracker: if he creepily hugs John Adams like he hugs the flag that statue may knee him right in the ball

    ETA: Did John Adams make the cut in Hamilton?

  124. 124.

    Baud

    July 8, 2020 at 2:40 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Mentioned, not seen.

  125. 125.

    MattF

    July 8, 2020 at 2:41 pm

    @Betty Cracker: Ah. And if Trump appears inside a statue (of, say Andrew Jackson) that would also solve his virus protection problem. Two birds, one stone!

  126. 126.

    JMG

    July 8, 2020 at 2:42 pm

    @Barbara: I don’t think Cook has a slight Republican bias as much as he has the strong bias of all professional forecasters and handicappers, in sports and business as well as politics, the conviction that what happened last time is the most likely thing to happen this time. I assure you that if Trump led a Pennsylvania poll by nine points, it would not be rated as Lean R. But since he won it in 2016, it takes a huge amount of data to sway the prediction Biden’s way.

  127. 127.

    cain

    July 8, 2020 at 2:42 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    Why do these people want to keep their jobs in the face of what seems increasingly like a Dem blowout?

    Does going against Trump really fuck up their lives in Republican political circles?

    How do you defend letting kids go back to school without clear guidance based on science? I don’t get it.

  128. 128.

    BruceFromOhio

    July 8, 2020 at 2:44 pm

    @E.: we were just talking about this, using the same language and expectations we had in February. My expectation is that it moves a little more slowly this time, as the supply chains have mostly caught up. But it’s definitely happening.

  129. 129.

    Barbara

    July 8, 2020 at 2:48 pm

    @joel hanes: I think you are correct.  By temperament, instinct and longstanding experience Trump and Kushner applied the filter of self interest (or the interests of donors) in considering any official response to the virus.  The situation in March, basically, was one in which Kushner told states they were on their own but then ran around muscling out states when they tried to buy supplies.  And then resold the same supplies for a lot more money — or gave them to “friendly” states.

    So, basically, it would be like if you owned an apartment building that was on fire and you decided to delay calling the fire department so you could cause enough damage to get a bigger insurance payment that would allow you to remodel more apartments and then rent them out at a higher price.  You are indifferent to a few more people being killed or maimed in the fire.  The problem is that you might end up burning down the whole building and accused of being an accessory to arson.  That’s where we are.  Trump didn’t set the fire, but now it’s out of control and everyone knows he tried to take advantage of letting it burn longer in the first place.

  130. 130.

    prufrock

    July 8, 2020 at 2:49 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Not seen but insulted twice.

    John Adams doesn’t have a real job (when he was Vice President).

    Sit down John, you fat motherfuckstick!

  131. 131.

    Jinchi

    July 8, 2020 at 2:51 pm

    @Betty Cracker: A potential new addition to President Trump’s future rallies: statues.

    Well I’ve heard restaurants are using mannikins to fill empty seats, so maybe this will solve his attendance problem.

  132. 132.

    Barbara

    July 8, 2020 at 2:52 pm

    @Betty Cracker: I mean, here we have live, flesh and blood people at risk of DYING and Trump is worried about statues.  What’s wrong with them?  They are demented.

  133. 133.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 2:52 pm

    @Ken:

     

    @Matt McIrvin:

     

    @Roger Moore:

    It’s totally the Fox effect.  The network keeps so much of reality away from the GOP base and propagandizes them constantly with their version of the truth aka lies.  Keeps the GOP base from dipping below 35-40% no matter what.

  134. 134.

    Nicole

    July 8, 2020 at 2:54 pm

    @prufrock: Sit down John, you fat motherfuckstick!

    I appreciated the R-rated shout-out to 1776.

  135. 135.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 2:56 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: I last saw that movie, oh, 30 years ago.  I was LOL-ing at still recalling that chant when most days, it’s hit or miss if I can remember where I set my car keys down.  That’s what was funny.

  136. 136.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 2:58 pm

    @Betty Cracker: this will blow up in both the CDC’s and trumpov’s faces.

  137. 137.

    kindness

    July 8, 2020 at 2:58 pm

    I’m thankful our state officials are in charge of school openings and not the feds. Having said that California has announced they want in person schooling to being August with social distancing and out here there is no way kids will be able to social distance while at school. Our schools physically don’t have the space even if you teach kids out in the athletic fields. So this one is a little Great! and Oh Shit! at the same time.

  138. 138.

    Calouste

    July 8, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    @prufrock: The whole third song of King George is an insult to John Adams.

  139. 139.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    July 8, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Hey! You can say the movies are problematic, but godawful? Very few people say that.

  140. 140.

    Nicole

    July 8, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    @kindness: I watched Cuomo’s briefing today and he said NYS will make a decision in August.  He also basically laughed at Trump’s threat for no school funding, saying that the Fed gov’t isn’t giving NYS any money now, so what’s the difference?

  141. 141.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    @Mary G:I’ve starting ordering an extra box of cereal, etc., to stock up, because I can see this growth getting even farther out of control.

    We’ve been gradually working our way through the canned goods and extra supplies that I originally stocked up on in late January.  I was thinking about restocking some or all of it, but the grocery stores stayed open and probably will even if/when there’s a resurgence.

  142. 142.

    Villago Delenda Est

    July 8, 2020 at 3:03 pm

    @Leto: We’re well on our way to Ceausescu levels.

  143. 143.

    randy khan

    July 8, 2020 at 3:03 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I won’t say Cook has a Republican lean (although it feels that way sometimes), but I’ve noticed that when you look at the criteria for Solid/Likely/Lean/Tossup you realize that about half the Likely races really are solid, about half the Lean races really are likely, and about half the Tossup races really lean one way or the other.  (Not to mention that some of the Solids are more like granite, but you have to have some kind of endpoint on your scale.)

  144. 144.

    Villago Delenda Est

    July 8, 2020 at 3:04 pm

    @Baud: And Yr Wonkette.

  145. 145.

    WaterGirl

    July 8, 2020 at 3:09 pm

    @Betty Cracker: I really think the CDC and Fauci are letting us down here, and both the CDC and Fauci are squandering their credibility.

    I simply do not understand why they are doing this.

  146. 146.

    terry chay

    July 8, 2020 at 3:09 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: The thing is, anything that happens between now and November is likely to hurt Trump. Trump is an incumbent, a known quantity. his behavior is predictable and the very thing people marvel at (his floor) is also a ceiling.

     

    This dude isn’t going to get any more votes, he is going to lose them.

  147. 147.

    James E Powell

    July 8, 2020 at 3:11 pm

    @Citizen Alan:

    I’m convinced W only got own to 27% by trying to pass immigration reform and causing the xeno wing of the GOP to turn on him.

    Agreed. That and social security.

  148. 148.

    randy khan

    July 8, 2020 at 3:12 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    In northern Virginia big stores mostly seem to have given up mask monitoring, but the reason may be that it’s not necessary because everyone is wearing a mask.  I doubt I’ve seen more than 10 total people not wearing masks of one kind or another over the last at least two months of shopping.  It warms the cockles of my heart.

  149. 149.

    NotMax

    July 8, 2020 at 3:13 pm

    Dear Dolt 45 campaign,

    Please revive saying “What have you got to lose?”

    Thanks.

    //

  150. 150.

    Cameron

    July 8, 2020 at 3:13 pm

    @Betty Cracker: Statues?  I though it was blow-up sex dolls.

  151. 151.

    James E Powell

    July 8, 2020 at 3:14 pm

    @JMG:

    Could Cook be factoring in the greater likelihood that Republicans will actually vote?

  152. 152.

    narya

    July 8, 2020 at 3:16 pm

    @WaterGirl: My organization has direct and indirect funding from the CDC (i won’t provide more detail than that), and I have definitely noticed a reluctance to allow certain things to be in the budget, even when they are clearly allowable under the stated rules. I once asked, is this because you’re afraid of a congresscritter’s staff person combing through these budgets and finding [this thing that is allowable and supports the program aims, but could be sensationalized], and was basically told yes.

  153. 153.

    catclub

    July 8, 2020 at 3:18 pm

    @different-church-lady: 

    place odds on whether Trump will start caring if people die before November?

    That depends, have they mailed in an absentee ballot?

  154. 154.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 3:18 pm

    @Barbara:

    By temperament, instinct and longstanding experience Trump and Kushner applied the filter of self interest (or the interests of donors) in considering any official response to the virus.

    It’s not often remembered, but when the pandemic started to take hold, Trump convened a meeting to game out the federal response.   The invitees were almost exclusively Trump-friendly corporate CEOs — no medical experts or logistic experts or historians, nor even political strategists.

  155. 155.

    JMG

    July 8, 2020 at 3:19 pm

    @James E Powell: No, because his ratings in 2016 had the same bias, but the other way, “This election will be like 2012.”

  156. 156.

    Major Major Major Major

    July 8, 2020 at 3:19 pm

    @terry chay: I gave up trying to predict elections in 2017.

  157. 157.

    jonas

    July 8, 2020 at 3:20 pm

    @Fraud Guy:And there are many in his administration who will not try, and may encourage him in this delusion.

    Bill Barr for one. That guy is literally gunning for an authoritarian coup to replace the republic with a Franco/Pinochet-style dictatorship.

  158. 158.

    NotMax

    July 8, 2020 at 3:21 pm

    @Betty Cracker

    Statues. Which will promptly be removed before the seats get cold.

    Of course, knowing these bozos all the statues will be identical, only the heads differing. And they’ll include Benedict “He’s a general!” Arnold.

  159. 159.

    mrmoshpotato

    July 8, 2020 at 3:21 pm

    @joel hanes: I will throw shoes at you!

  160. 160.

    Brachiator

    July 8, 2020 at 3:23 pm

    @joel hanes:

    It’s not often remembered, but when the pandemic started to take hold, Trump convened a meeting to game out the federal response.   The invitees were almost exclusively Trump-friendly corporate CEOs — no medical experts or logistic experts or historians, nor even political strategists.

    Another reminder of what happens when you run a country like a business. Trump is not only a full, incurious man who doesn’t understand science, he is incapable of growth and simply does not know how to use the power of the presidency, except in the most primitive and self-serving way.

  161. 161.

    Uncle Cosmo

    July 8, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    @Mary G: I’ve starting ordering an extra box of cereal, etc., to stock up

    Well, lucky you. My routine breakfast is a bowl of plain bran flakes and 1% milk and I can no longer find plain bran flakes. I go into stores & they’ll have 3 frackin’ versions of raisin bran – which spikes my blood sugar unacceptably – but no plain. (Can’t even pluck out the dried grapes, too much sugar shakes off on the flakes.)

    I ask & the store managers shrug their shoulders: “We’re just not getting any from the warehouses.”

    Barstids.

  162. 162.

    mrmoshpotato

    July 8, 2020 at 3:27 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: LOL!  I…  Wow.  The brash stupidity.

  163. 163.

    Kay

    July 8, 2020 at 3:28 pm

    @Benw:

    I’ve thought about this and I would give the higher marks to 1. the state department (because they appeared and told the truth at impeachment) and 2. the military (because they bucked him on attacking protestors)

    The DOJ is my biggest disappointment. Those are prestigious jobs. They collapsed almost immediately.

    Donald Trump isn’t an intelligence test. He’s a character test. A LOT of people failed it. We need to know why they were so weak and replace them with stronger institutions.

    Everyone gives Florida shit for election messes, but we only KNOW about Florida. Places that are never close never get tested. We need to look for resiliency. Who and what held up.

  164. 164.

    Brachiator

    July 8, 2020 at 3:31 pm

    @WaterGirl:

     I really think the CDC and Fauci are letting us down here, and both the CDC and Fauci are squandering their credibility.

    They are trying to stay in place until the November election. Trump doesn’t like anyone opposing him, and might dismiss these agencies altogether.

    There is precedent. In the UK, Boris Johnson is making political decisions regarding the pandemic, pretending to follow the “scientific guidance,” and the science advisors are silent or simply note that they may not agree with some decisions being made.

  165. 165.

    NotMax

    July 8, 2020 at 3:38 pm

    @Uncle Cosmo

    Might try swinging by a local ‘health food’ emporium. Likely to find some available, albeit somewhat costlier and brand(s) you’ve never heard of before.

    Would plain shredded wheat do as a substitute? Could be on the shelves of your regular market, well hidden amongst the frooty sugar bombs.

    My routine breakfast is a bowl of plain bran flakes

    Ah, a bran stoker.

    ;)

  166. 166.

    Nicole

    July 8, 2020 at 3:40 pm

    @Uncle Cosmo: You can probably order it on Amazon, though you may have to commit to 4 boxes or more at a time.

  167. 167.

    low-tech cyclist

    July 8, 2020 at 3:43 pm

    Jinchi:

    This is what amazes me. His odds of re-election would go up dramatically if he worked to get the pandemic under control, now.

    Yeppers.  Remember that brief period where Trump decided to at least pretend to be doing something about the coronavirus?  It went from roughly mid-March to the beginning of April, before he decided that things needed to reopen in time for Easter.

    If you look at 538’s graph of Trump’s approval, his approval went sharply up, and his disapproval went sharply down, during those two weeks or so.  And he wasn’t really even doing anything, just playing the part of someone who was.

    Since play-acting is all we’d get from him anyway, it’s a good thing he’s too dumb to realize that that might save his Presidency.

  168. 168.

    Brachiator

    July 8, 2020 at 3:43 pm

    @joel hanes:

    Of those infected, 894 were staff members and 441 were children.

    More staff infected than children. This is very bad.

  169. 169.

    Benw

    July 8, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    @Kay: I dunno, the military only bailed on attacking civilians AFTER they’d gassed demonstrators for a bible photo op that made them look really bad.

    The Park Rangers told them to fuck off immediately.

    Props to the DOE too who told them to fuck off early on when the White House demanded a list of scientists working on climate and environmental issues.

  170. 170.

    Geminid

    July 8, 2020 at 3:46 pm

    The high level of support for Biden among Warren and Sanders supporters is good news. I’ve  also noticed more acceptance of Democratic legislative leadership. When the first couple stimulus bills were debated this spring, there were a lot of a armchair generals demanding, “This ditch must be defended at all cost! And that hill should be taken now! Not next January! And why aren’t we impeaching Trump again?!” Now people seem more willing to let Pelosi, Schumer et al prepare the battlefield for the decisive contest this November.             Of course, if the Democrats win this election, and hopefully win big, the same old intraparty controversies will arise again, if only because we’re Democrats. But that will be a good problem to have.

  171. 171.

    Villago Delenda Est

    July 8, 2020 at 3:49 pm

    @NotMax: What have you got to lose?  Nothing but your chains.

  172. 172.

    Puddinhead

    July 8, 2020 at 3:49 pm

    @Uncle Cosmo:

    You could always try shredding some printer paper and putting 1% milk over that. It will probably taste the same, but it’s a little more pricey.

  173. 173.

    Patricia Kayden

    July 8, 2020 at 3:50 pm

    Analysis: Trump has tried to claim Democrats want to eliminate police. Americans aren’t buying it. https://t.co/GRbH12wcDY— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 8, 2020

  174. 174.

    James E Powell

    July 8, 2020 at 3:51 pm

    Trump threatening to withhold funding from school districts that don’t re-open is generating about 4% of the outrage generated by Michelle Obama’s suggestion that the lunches should include healthier foods.

  175. 175.

    clay

    July 8, 2020 at 3:52 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Pence on schools reopening: “The best expert I know on this topic is my wife, Karen.”

    The sad thing is, he may be telling the truth.  I fully believe it’s likely that Pence doesn’t know any experts on any topics.  So Karen would be the best by default.

    (LOL, Karen!)

  176. 176.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 3:52 pm

    @Brachiator:

    This is very bad.

    Yes.

  177. 177.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 3:54 pm

    @Benw:

    the military only bailed on attacking civilians AFTER they’d gassed demonstrators for a bible photo op that made them look really bad.

    I thought that was largely perpetrated by the no-badge no-name no-insignia thugs from the Bureau of Prisons riot squads and the thugs borrowed from ICE and the CBP ?

  178. 178.

    gvg

    July 8, 2020 at 3:54 pm

    @stinger: That is interesting. My county had the reverse….long planned teardown and rebuild of 2 old schools-middle I think.  They had built or rented a large number of portables to essentially double the size of existing schools in every spare space including athletic fields and parking lots. The 2 teardown schools are being bussed to the temporary sites for the year, while the old schools are removed and rebuilt. I think there was asbestos involved but it’s a big project planned for years. So 2 schools are twice as big for this year. Also the students have a longer commute.  Middle schools around here are usually around 1500 students. And the Governor has ordered them to reopen (Florida).

  179. 179.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 3:54 pm

    @Kay: I just read something at Vanity Fair that alleges Barr is begging Trump not to commute Roger Stone’s sentence, which is supposed to start next week, IIRC. Supposedly Barr fears a “mutiny” at DOJ if Trump commutes the sentence. I find that highly dubious. The DOJ collapsed like a Dollar Tree lawn chair. Burn it down and start fresh.

  180. 180.

    Brachiator

    July 8, 2020 at 3:59 pm

    @Steeplejack:

    Just wanted to say that I saw your Chromebook tip yesterday (day before?) and say thanks.

    No problem. As I noted, I have really been impressed with the quality and good value of some of the new Chromebooks. The same is true of many Windows devices as well. It is interesting to see how these devices have come out just in time to appeal to students, teachers and others who need a reliable budget device for remote learning. In a couple of cases, reviewers admit that the had dismissed some of the devices as “just another Chromebook” when they were unveiled earlier at computer shows, but have had to give them a second look.

    I also think that Google earlier announced that they were extending the period that Chromebooks would receive updates, another move that looks great in hindsight.

  181. 181.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 8, 2020 at 4:00 pm

    @Betty Cracker: we’ve been hearing for three years about uprisings and mutinies and low morale at the DoJ, the FBI, the CIA, the Pentagon, Capitol Hill…. I wonder if Barr is really worried about pending cases, how judges, who are only human, might rule or postpone things beyond Jan 21 (?), 2021

  182. 182.

    low-tech cyclist

    July 8, 2020 at 4:00 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Warren’s primary supporters were all liberals and progressives (but not those left-populist weirdos with sneaking Trump admiration; they’d be more likely to go for Bernie). Given a Biden vs. Trump choice they might be sorely disappointed but they’ll vote Biden.

    Yeppers.  As a Warren supporter, I’m biased, but I never sensed any “my candidate, or I take my ball and go home!” sentiment from my fellow Warren fans.  Those types were mostly in Bernie’s camp.

    And fuck anyone on the left who would still rather have a Republican than anyone besides Bernie, because it’ll hasten the revolution or something.  Fuck that shit  – people are dying by the thousands each week because of Trumpublican rule. How many people are you willing to sacrifice for your ‘revolution’?

  183. 183.

    thruppence

    July 8, 2020 at 4:02 pm

    Went looking for a Joe Biden T shirt on his official site and they’re all kind of … boring. Any other good sources?

  184. 184.

    Matt McIrvin

    July 8, 2020 at 4:05 pm

    @Kropacetic: Not “Operation Chaos”, exactly–I think of that as trollish crossover behavior where you intentionally vote for the worst candidate in the other party, so your party will win the general election.

    Whereas most crossover voting is not motivated by that level of strategic “reasoning”; it’s people who figure their party primary is a foregone conclusion so they want to vote for the candidate they consider least-bad in the other party. Often motivated by particular hatred for some other specific candidate.

  185. 185.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 8, 2020 at 4:06 pm

    Nicole Wallace goes there, as we used to say: Will Barron trump be going back to school? Will the little trumps and Kushners?

  186. 186.

    gvg

    July 8, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    @Uncle Cosmo: Amazon has it. Check Walmart too. Actually check your own grocery store on line, sometimes something is available through ordering.

    I have not been inside a grocery store in months. I figured out my chains secret way to do curbside. I don’t think they meant to do it much before the pandemic but it turns out that in each town, there is ONE store in the chain that does curbside. If you figure out which one, it’s a choice otherwise you can pay extra for delivery. None of the other stores actually say they have it or not, they just say some stores do with no further help. The one store turns out to often have more items.

    But I have used Amazon alot. Also Target has some curbside groceries, but you have to download their ap. I have figured out how to avoid stores pretty much completely for months.

  187. 187.

    Benw

    July 8, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    @joel hanes: I dunno who pulled the actual trigger, but my take is the thing that made them sad is being in the photo with that upside down bible holding psycho

  188. 188.

    MattF

    July 8, 2020 at 4:09 pm

    Sez here that the rats are considering their options.

  189. 189.

    raven

    July 8, 2020 at 4:10 pm

    Illini vs Ohio State Alums live on ESPN in The Basketball Tournament with a 1 million winner take all purse!

  190. 190.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 8, 2020 at 4:12 pm

    maybe the numbers here are so stark and simple that twitter will prove useful:

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump· 6h
    In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open

    Jackson Proskow @JProskowGlobal ·6h

    NEW CASES PER DAY: (July 7
    Germany – 397
    Denmark – 47
    Norway – 35
    Sweden – 57
    United States – 60,000+

    Kinda surprised at Sweden. Is that being attributed to masking?

  191. 191.

    The Pale Scot

    July 8, 2020 at 4:14 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    To the tune of Chattanooga Choo Choo

    Hey over there, are you the cats who shot Ceausescu?

    You know you really made my day

    When you blew him away

    by Mark Russell

    sings Trump Tunes

  192. 192.

    Kropacetic

    July 8, 2020 at 4:15 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Not “Operation Chaos”, exactly–I think of that as trollish crossover behavior where you intentionally vote for the worst candidate in the other party, so your party will win the general election.

    Well, no accounting for taste, I supose.

  193. 193.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 4:15 pm

    @low-tech cyclist: Co-signed. Also, I’ll never understand why cults of personality spring up around the shittiest personalities on the planet. I don’t hate Bernie at all, and I understand why people supported his policies, many of which I also support. But to make Bernie Sanders a hill you’ll fucking die on? To worship that irascible oId fart? don’t get it. Same with Trump, who has the world’s shittiest personality. WTF?

  194. 194.

    Dan B

    July 8, 2020 at 4:18 pm

    @Kay: Regarding BLM and confederate statues a friend of a friend suggested a push for bird feeders for these monuments.  It serves an ecological purpose, although attracting vermin to the scattered seed might not be ecologically pure.

    It kills two birds with one stone….

    Slinks away slowly…

  195. 195.

    The Pale Scot

    July 8, 2020 at 4:18 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    Cue Spinal Tap

    Quite possible something like this happens

  196. 196.

    Shana

    July 8, 2020 at 4:22 pm

    @Brachiator: Doesn’t the vast majority of school funding come from the communities and states? I know the Feds kick in some money, but this doesn’t sound like the winning argument he thinks it is.

  197. 197.

    JPL

    July 8, 2020 at 4:23 pm

    Barron’s school is going to have both in class and online learning.  The teacher student ratio is 6 to 1 with the average class size being 13.   trump should commit to in class learning as well as commit to his grandchildren doing the same.

    Also, everyone has to wear a mask.

  198. 198.

    MagdaInBlack

    July 8, 2020 at 4:24 pm

    @Brachiator:

    I was trying to remember who recommended the Chromebook. I snagged one on Amazon and Im very pleased.  Thank You 😊

  199. 199.

    Villago Delenda Est

    July 8, 2020 at 4:25 pm

    @thruppence: Check out the Wonkette site and see if any of their tees raise your excitement level.  “Smokin’ Joe!”

  200. 200.

    E.

    July 8, 2020 at 4:26 pm

    @Mary G: That yeast will last quite a while in a glass jar with a well-designed lid on the freezer. Happy baking!

  201. 201.

    catclub

    July 8, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    @JPL: The teacher student ratio is 6 to 1 with the average class size being 13.

     

    Six teachers to one student?  nice – the student probably hates that.

     

    I was going to say that if trump demands  schools open, he should fund the same ratio in other schools that open,

  202. 202.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    Alonso also disputed DeSantis’ claim healthy young people get the virus with no ill-effects.

    “When we take X-rays of kids, even if they don’t have symptoms, there are changes in the lungs,” Alonso said. “We have no idea what the long-term damage will look like.”

    Further, one 2-year-old boy in the county has been diagnosed with multisystem inflammatory syndrome, a potentially fatal disease. Two 17-year-olds and a child under the age of 14 have died elsewhere in the state, health officials reported.

    Data shows that the virus is continuing to attack children. An eye-popping 29 percent of the 1,083 children under the age of 18 who have been tested in the county learned they have the disease, the health department reported.

    link

  203. 203.

    catclub

    July 8, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    @Shana: Doesn’t the vast majority of school funding come from the communities and states?

     

    yes, but for years (see No Child Left Behind)  the federal government has demanded performance for their last dab of money – and generally gotten it.

  204. 204.

    Uncle Cosmo

    July 8, 2020 at 4:34 pm

    @NotMax: Shredded wheat is surprisingly high in (pretty much empty) carbs, which I’m trying to limit.

    @Puddinhead: “Puddinhead” indeed. De gustibus non est disputandum, boychik – I rather enjoy the taste. (And just FTR, your suggestion would make for, mmm, shall we say interesting bowel movements…not to mention death by a thousand papercuts in the small intestine…)

    The one acceptable substitute is “all bran” – the local Big Lots used to stock it occasionally & I’d buy in quantity, but at full price I’d need a home equity loan. IIRC Traitor Joe’s has an equivalent that’s not too pricey, but about a year ago they relocated the TJ’s nearest me to someplace I have never been able to find…(but now that I googled it I see where it is & will toodle there presently…) Foist-woild problems.

  205. 205.

    joel hanes

    July 8, 2020 at 4:34 pm

    @Shana:

    Doesn’t the vast majority of school funding come from the communities and states?

    Most school districts were financially precarious before the pandemic.     State and city and county budgets have been utterly smashed:  collapsing revenues from taxes, extraordinary expenses in public health, policing, unemployment insurance …

    Because of those budget shortfalls, even just doing a normal school year was going to be problematic:  state governments are quietly looking at enormous budget cuts, and that can only go so far before education is cut.   Opening safely will require tons of additional money.  States and counties cannot print money.   Only the federal government can issue T-bills to borrow essentially unlimited money at what is currently zero interest.

    Trump and the GOP propose to provide none.

  206. 206.

    Chris Johnson

    July 8, 2020 at 4:41 pm

    @Betty Cracker: That’s funny. Barr is another traitor. Perhaps they know good and well that he’s a traitor, and behind the scenes the Trumpsters are truly on the verge of a revolt?

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer crowd :P

  207. 207.

    Betty Cracker

    July 8, 2020 at 4:42 pm

    Maybe someone from the Lincoln Project reads Balloon Juice:

    Learn. Their. Names. pic.twitter.com/lYzH8LIj6d

    — The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) July 8, 2020

  208. 208.

    Searcher

    July 8, 2020 at 4:48 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    Me too. I want to Trump to win fewer than 200 EC votes. I’m greedy that way!

    Man, trying to find a plausible map where Trump gets < 100 EC votes is haaaaard.  Even once you put Georgia(!) and Texas(!) into the tossup column, you look at a lot of the remainder and just go “Nope, nope, nope.”

  209. 209.

    Brachiator

    July 8, 2020 at 4:49 pm

    @Shana:

    Doesn’t the vast majority of school funding come from the communities and states? I know the Feds kick in some money, but this doesn’t sound like the winning argument he thinks it is.

    Trump is largely posturing. Again.

    NY Governor Cuomo nailed Trump on this.

    Been there. Done that.

  210. 210.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 8, 2020 at 4:49 pm

    @Betty Cracker: I hope the Maine Dems have that pic of Collins and trump holding hands

    If they didn’t I guess they do now

  211. 211.

    pamelabrown53

    July 8, 2020 at 4:51 pm

    @Uncle Cosmo:

    Costco lists 2 types of Kellogg’s “All Bran”. Go for it!

  212. 212.

    Dan B

    July 8, 2020 at 4:53 pm

    @Betty Cracker: With a fake Mt. Rushmore background at rallies how many busts must be of the cowardly yam magnificent leader?

    (Would there be other replacements, say Putin for Washington, Bolsonaro for Teddy, Kim for Lincoln, and does Erdogan just get added to the group?

     

    I also imagine a Baby Trump balloon rising from behind the tableau mid rally!  Just call me theatrical.

  213. 213.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    July 8, 2020 at 4:55 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    I think I need a cigarette.  That was…satisfying….

  214. 214.

    dnfree

    July 8, 2020 at 4:58 pm

    @Uncle Cosmo: there are several styles of All-bran. The original is kind of short strings, buds are little lumps, and there are flakes. I mix the original with cereal that tastes better. Good fiber. There is an equivalent called Fiber One from another brand, but it’s made of undigestible fiber, like wood chips or something.

  215. 215.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    July 8, 2020 at 4:59 pm

    @JPL:

    How the fuck does a kid manage to sleep in class, doodle meaninglessly, prank on friends, run a parimutuel betting ring, engage in a mutual grope with a nubile, do graffiti, vandalize something or engage in meaningless theft with that kind of teacher to student ratio?

    Makes school completely worthless and not fun.

  216. 216.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 4:59 pm

    @thruppence: 

    Go to the “BYEDON” store!

  217. 217.

    Shana

    July 8, 2020 at 5:01 pm

    @Mary G: Your pound of, I assume, SAS yeast will keep in your freezer almost indefinitely.  I put mine in a canning jar and keep it in the freezer. You don’t have to “defrost” it before use.

    I was in the same boat and ordered from 2 places figuring I’d cancel one order when I got notice that the other was shipping. They both arrived, without notice, on the same day. Ended up giving it to a friend.

  218. 218.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 5:01 pm

    @Betty Cracker: I just saw that!  How awesome is this – these cretins might actually pay for their support of trumpov over their own country!!

  219. 219.

    Shana

    July 8, 2020 at 5:02 pm

    @Betty Cracker: Just got an image of a Spinal Tap-like Mt. Rushmore.

  220. 220.

    Jeffro

    July 8, 2020 at 5:03 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

     

    @Searcher:

    Biden is nearly (knock on wood) a lock to win over 330 EVs at this point.  McCain has to be smiling (from above or below, I’m not sure, but still).

  221. 221.

    Another Scott

    July 8, 2020 at 5:03 pm

    @different-church-lady: There was a Twitter 30-seconds-of-fame thread recently where a scientist posted a whining screed from some news producer, berating the scientist for not dropping everything to be on their show for 17.3 seconds to answer questions she had already answered on 5 other interviews that day (on other news outlets).  As if she has nothing better to do than sit around and wait to be interviewed, instead of doing her actual research job.

    Too many of the press are lazy, running on fumes from past glory, and desperate to get that compelling 17.3 seconds of video for free.

    I’m glad she stood up for herself.  More people should do so.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  222. 222.

    JPL

    July 8, 2020 at 5:04 pm

    @catclub: whoops

  223. 223.

    JPL

    July 8, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: His dad probably did.

    student to teacher.   you happy now.  Actually I’m happy you pointed that out.

  224. 224.

    Kent

    July 8, 2020 at 5:08 pm

    @James E Powell: and Katrina

  225. 225.

    Shana

    July 8, 2020 at 5:10 pm

    @joel hanes: Article in the WaPo today said that the audio recordings from the Park Police had disappeared from their little adventure in Lafayette Square on June 1st.

  226. 226.

    Another Scott

    July 8, 2020 at 5:32 pm

    Sam Wang at CJR:

    […]

    I could have avoided that embarrassing experience had I not converted polling margins into win probabilities. In my prediction, I should have emphasized that a two-percentage-point difference in public opinion between the polls and the outcome might be enough to give the election to Trump. That distinction is important because journalists and readers tend to err toward excessive certainty. If you say, for instance, that Joe Biden has a 70 percent chance of winning this November, a reader might hear that he has a 100 percent chance. Indeed, Nate Silver’s model in 2016 was appropriately uncertain, assigning Clinton a 71 percent chance of becoming president—and allowing about a 29 percent chance of the opposite happening—but Silver was criticized for being “wrong.”

    Consider a different context: if you’re offered a chance to play Russian roulette and the gun is one-third loaded—a 33 percent probability of a disastrous outcome—don’t play. Or take covid-19: no science-savvy journalist would report that the outbreak is on the decline based on a probability from a mathematical model. With stakes that high, one would describe the trajectory of the pandemic based on direct measures, such as the trend in the number of deaths per day. Verifiable numbers tell readers whether conditions are getting better or worse without making predictions about the future.

    After the upset of 2016, many political journalists might be tempted to fear polling data. Paying attention to opinion surveys, these reporters worry, could lead the public astray. But psychological research shows that a disturbing memory, born of trauma, can focus on the wrong triggering event. If we become afraid of polls, I think we are learning a false lesson. It isn’t that polls were inaccurate during the last presidential election—viewed in terms of percentage-point margins, they weren’t far off. The problem is that our brains may have turned an emotional experience with polling into a lasting trauma.

    […]

    Covering state and local elections can not only help us overcome a fear of polling. It can also foster interest in a subject that news consumers can actually do something about: down-ballot races, where citizen engagement is often weak. Along with gerrymandering and electoral reform, that’s my main focus now: tracking where political races are tightest. It helps my readers learn where their efforts will make the most difference, because close elections can be turned by activism.

    In 2018 and 2019, polls were pretty good at identifying close campaigns. In 2018, for instance, Democratic congressional candidates led Republicans in national surveys by a median of 8.5 points. That year, Democrats retook control of the House with a popular-vote margin of 8.6 points. In 2019, polls showed that, in Louisiana and Kentucky, the top candidates for governor were within a few percentage points of each other. Democrats took both races, each by less than three points; in both states, campaigns and get-out-the-vote work proved pivotal.

    There’s no need for political reporters to be skittish; the polls of the past few years have largely been accurate. By continuing to present the data, journalists can walk back the trauma of 2016—and reveal important truths about the American electorate. Predictions can be off, to be sure; the key is to keep coverage simple, put facts in context, and not overreach. It takes many experiences, but fear can be unlearned.

    If the situation were reversed, the Democrat would be expecting a loss to make Mondale’s look like a win. Donnie and the GOP are in huge trouble now. But we still have to fight for every seat.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  227. 227.

    artem1s

    July 8, 2020 at 5:34 pm

    I had to make a TP run at my locally and employee owned drug store this morning.  they have been great about putting up sneeze guards around the registers and having their employees mask up from the beginning.  And I would estimate upward of 80-90% of the customers mask.  I was surprised to hear them announce over their PA system today that the city has mandated mask wearing indoors – I imagine they announced as a result of some local yahoo customer who walked in unmasked. But I was pleasantly surprised to hear about the city mandate.

    All the tweeting in the world can’t save T’s sorry ass at this point.  Anyone with half a brain is outright ignoring him now.  And local governments are ignoring their Red Governors now if they continue with the Kool-aid.  But I’ll know he has really lost the election when the NCAA finally announces they are going to give up on football and contact sports for the rest of the year.

  228. 228.

    trollhattan

    July 8, 2020 at 5:35 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    There was a poll of major Dem primary candidate voters, back when it was being hotly contested (what, seventeen years ago?) asking if your candidate does not win the nomination, will you vote for the Democratic nominee regardless?

    Warren supporters had the highest percentage saying yes.
    Sanders supporters had the lowest percentage.
    .

  229. 229.

    trollhattan

    July 8, 2020 at 5:37 pm

    @Another Scott:

    If the situation were reversed, the Democrat would be expecting a loss to make Mondale’s look like a win. Donnie and the GOP are in huge trouble now. But we still have to fight for every seat.

    Yes. Vote like your life depends on it.

  230. 230.

    catclub

    July 8, 2020 at 5:40 pm

    @joel hanes:

    Only the federal government can issue T-bills to borrow essentially unlimited money at what is currently zero interest.

    Trump and the GOP propose to provide none.

     

    This continues to baffle me. If the States and public schools run out of money in September, that will be bad for Trump and the economy. AND the Democrats will go along with not letting the States and Public schools break in September.

     

    The best explanation is that they already plan to lose, and leave a smoking husk for Biden and the Democrats in January.

  231. 231.

    Matt McIrvin

    July 8, 2020 at 6:46 pm

    @randy khan:  They still have Ohio pegged as Lean Republican but all the recent polls there have had Biden ahead. I presume they’re adjusting for general political tendencies, etc.

  232. 232.

    Another Scott

    July 8, 2020 at 7:13 pm

    @Uncle Cosmo: One has to look around.

    Maybe this will work for you?

    https://nuts.com/cookingbaking/grains/wheat/bran/1lb.html

    https://nuts.com/cookingbaking/grains/oats/bran-fine/1lb.html

    (I haven’t tried those myself, but did order some WW flour and some bread flour from them and have been happy with it.)

    HTH a little.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  233. 233.

    Another Scott

    July 8, 2020 at 7:20 pm

    @thruppence:

    Smokin’ Joe T-shirts at Wonkette.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  234. 234.

    Persistent Illusion

    July 8, 2020 at 7:51 pm

    @thruppence: Etsy, wander around.

  235. 235.

    Brantl

    July 8, 2020 at 11:24 pm

    @jonas: they never did hold the country above their party, Nixon was an albatross are und their necks.

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