Love our Iowa small business, @RAYGUNshirts ! https://t.co/qdIJ71IDuH
— Lee in Iowa #WearYourMask #TeamPelosi (@Lee_in_Iowa) July 3, 2020
Life saving of masks projected.
33,000 in 3 months.
Multiply people seriously suffering by about 10. https://t.co/MRrQAIcCpa— Gary Slutkin, MD (@GSlutkin) July 4, 2020
NEW – Kim Guilfoyle, girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr. and a top campaign official, tested positive for coronavirus in SD ahead of attending Mt Rushmore event, according to a person familiar w what happened. She was never was with POTUS, and neither was Don Jr., who tested negative.
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) July 4, 2020
8 Secret Service agents who went to Arizona to do advance work for VP Pence's trip to the state got COVID. He had to delay so they could send out a new unsick advance team. https://t.co/NDHKzgRVUO via @TPM
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 3, 2020
Trump on resurgence of virus as cases are spiking in several states: “We are putting out that life because it’s a bad life that we’re talking about.”
— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) July 2, 2020
At coronavirus crossroads, U.S. weighs "one more chance" to quell escalating outbreak https://t.co/V4KwvSZtAL
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 3, 2020
U.S. coronavirus cases rise by over 53,000 as several states set new records https://t.co/lvSHhdXoUS pic.twitter.com/zAeUZvVnFk
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 4, 2020
What is behind the growth in #COVID19 cases? There are now more confirmed daily cases throughout the US than when the disease was peaking in the Northeast throughout April https://t.co/6hMyjTnh4h pic.twitter.com/W4NWODjS5c
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) July 3, 2020
NEW: 'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus https://t.co/KsVb76v1cd
— Geoff Bennett (@GeoffRBennett) July 3, 2020
The new WH message is reportedly "We need to live with it." But we didn't. Here's an updated version of that EU vs US graph. It's a day old. Even worse now. They're moving on. We're going back into the storm. pic.twitter.com/IFFfoJ9XNU
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 3, 2020
Another ‘grand theory’ rolled out for market-testing over the holiday weekend:
There’s no point I know but it’s Friday so wth:
– “Everyone” is not true
– “Reasonable” is not true
– Seasonality was doubted from the start (see, early outbreaks in equatorial areas)
– “Weaponized” is not true (see, genome of SARS CoV, published in January, BY CHINA, c'mon) https://t.co/YG0tf8WpUV— Maryn McKenna (@marynmck) July 3, 2020
We look at posted numbers about #COVID19 each day but the real numbers are considerably different
Best estimates:
—Infections, total, per day, % https://t.co/hQihH0EdIK by @youyanggu updated today
—Deaths @JAMAInternalMed this week https://t.co/woM4yRXT86 @WeinbergerDan pic.twitter.com/Ffa8VFlfbg— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 3, 2020
"For months this spring, many of us stayed home, canceled vacations, and avoided friends and family. It was awful, but it worked…We are now losing that work, watching weeks of pandemic suppression vanish in days," @yayitsrob writes: https://t.co/zuygFYTqR0
— Sarah Laskow (@slaskow) July 3, 2020
===========
Global rise in in conformed #coronavirus cases https://t.co/46KWe5TXxu
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) July 4, 2020
Flare-ups have been occurring in some of Europe’s most deprived neighborhoods, often those inhabited by immigrants or minorities who work in low-paid jobs, crucial to buttressing the economy https://t.co/hQ1SEtsa2H pic.twitter.com/50PsneZhfB
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) July 3, 2020
"We feel absolutely abandoned": How the pandemic in Russia tanked the economy and plunged families into crisis https://t.co/E3srARoyR6
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 3, 2020
Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate https://t.co/qFUdyNO1Ct
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) July 3, 2020
India coronavirus cases hit record high amid monsoon rains https://t.co/SoERphVVi4 pic.twitter.com/tjUecHoL6w
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 4, 2020
Saudi Arabia passes 200,000 #coronavirus cases. The country passed the grim milestone, the health ministry said Friday, weeks ahead of an annual hajj pilgrimage which has been drastically cut back because of the pandemic https://t.co/mzXp2Q5YAE pic.twitter.com/NtKrP9BJcd
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) July 3, 2020
Melbourne public housing units locked down as Victoria records 108 new coronavirus cases https://t.co/fJJ57NUNhg
— ABC News (@abcnews) July 4, 2020
Brazil set to pass 1.5 million coronavirus cases, cities reopen anyway https://t.co/LebRivCEgo pic.twitter.com/uoef9HpMfx
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 4, 2020
Mexico logs 6,740 new coronavirus cases, passes Italy's total https://t.co/AH1Ifkb8ON pic.twitter.com/peIz33e5p8
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 4, 2020
===========
Important (IMO) thread:
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread 1/9 #COVID19 #ThursdayThoughts
— Miles Beckett (@mbeckett) July 2, 2020
8/9 The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths. pic.twitter.com/ir2Oe8cKiW
— Miles Beckett (@mbeckett) July 2, 2020
Explainer: what's the new coronavirus saliva test, and how does it work? https://t.co/K0wFCaYz9w via @medical_xpress
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) July 4, 2020
The US has bought most of the world's supply of remdesivir. Here's what that level of selfishness means for everyone else https://t.co/p9iKYcgT2Y via @medical_xpress pic.twitter.com/FoqgjDuZB8
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) July 4, 2020
===========
Health experts agree the July 4 weekend will be a pivotal moment in determining whether the U.S. slides into a deeper coronavirus mess. The fear is that a weekend of crowded pool parties, picnics and parades will worsen the already surging outbreak. https://t.co/c3jTdozd1c
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 3, 2020
Arizona seeing 25% test positivity. https://t.co/kZcOfq4XyN pic.twitter.com/GOQcZf3Vjx
— Carl Zimmer (@carlzimmer) July 3, 2020
Also remember ~10x as many people are infected than reported cases. Therefore you should keep social distance & wear a mask including around family outside your home group. Sorry, thats only if you want to reduce risk to you and them. 2/2
— Gary Slutkin, MD (@GSlutkin) July 3, 2020
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Dump is killing his own people
OzarkHillbilly
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: If only it was only.
Brachiator
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
And many of them are happy to sacrifice themselves for him.
He doesn’t have just a base anymore. He’s got a cult.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Brachiator:
JonesTrumptown.Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s daily numbers. 10 new cases: three cases from local infection, two Malaysians in KL and Sabah, and one non-Malaysian in Negeri Sembilan; seven cases from imported infection, all Malaysians returning from Saudi Arabia. Local infections remain in the low single digits for a sixth day. Cumulative total 8,658 cases.
15 more patients recovered and were discharged; total 8,461 recovered, or 97.7% of the cumulative total. 76 active and contagious patients remain in hospital for isolation/treatment.
No new deaths, for a 20th straight day. Total deaths remain at 121. Infection fatality rate is 1.40%, case fatality rate is 1.41%.
Amir Khalid
@Amir Khalid:
Forgot to add: two patients in ICU, both receiving respiratory assistance.
Brachiator
In an earlier thread about whether to re-open schools and universities, a poster made reference to the following story:
Let me cut to the chase. I do not understand why fraternities were allowed to stay open and to keep any resident students. At the least, they should have been treated like prisons, military vessels or nursing homes. Even though students may not be at serious risk of dying from the virus, they clearly were able to spread it.
So, what decision did officials and the frats make instead?
Again, officials are not making clear to students and the public the risks of community spread. The people living in the fraternities didn’t just need to wear masks and do social distancing, and self-isolating when appropriate. They also needed to restrict or reduce the number of visitors to the frats, and monitor workers and staff who come into contact with the frat members.
Even though the UK mangled their reaction to the pandemic, their promotion of social bubbles, self-defined groups that people would associate themselves into to reduce wider social contacts, had some value.
It’s not just an either/or of lockdown vs “return to normal.” We have to manage how people move and live in social spaces.
Given the increase in the number of cases, and the sometimes inadequate planning related to re-opening, I am skeptical that most schools can safely re-open in 2020.
ETA: The next thing to watch is what happens after England lets people go to pubs again this weekend. This does not apply to all of the UK. Wales will only allow pub service in outdoor spaces beginning July 13, and residents are being warned not to drive into England to get their drink on.
WereBear
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
Correction. He’s killing everyone, but especially his followers.
It really is a Republican Death Cult. Only before, it was slow and incremental.
Brachiator
Just for Los Angeles County as of July 2:
the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) reports an increase in COVID-19 deaths and continues to see increases in hospitalizations.
Public Health has confirmed 55 new deaths of COVID-19. This is 20 more deaths than yesterday’s count.
There are 1,893 people currently hospitalized, 28% of these people are confirmed cases in the ICU and 17% are confirmed cases on ventilators. This is the largest number of people hospitalized since early May, surpassing yesterday’s count.
There are 2,204 new cases of COVID-19. This is the fifth consecutive day of new cases over 2,000. This number is still missing lab reports from one of the larger labs….
Of the 55 new deaths, 40 people who died were over the age of 65 years old, 11 people who died were between the ages of 41 and 65 years old, and one person who died was between the ages of 18 and 40 years old. Forty-five people had underlying health conditions including 36 people over the age of 65 years old, eight people between the ages of 41 to 65 years old, and one person between the ages of 18 to 40 years old. One death was reported by the City of Long Beach and two deaths were reported by the City of Pasadena.
To date, Public Health has identified 107,667 positive cases of COVID-19 across all areas of LA County, and a total of 3,454 deaths. Ninety-three percent of people who died had underlying health conditions and 7% did not.
ETA: Because of the Fourth of July holiday, updated numbers probably will not be available until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
terben
A big thank you to Anne Laurie for these daily Update posts. It provides the opportunity for us to lift our eyes from our daily concerns and to see how everyone is coping. I hope you will all enjoy your Independence Day in a socially responsible and distant way.
From the Australian Dept of Health:
‘As at 3pm on 04 July 2020, a total of 8,362 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Australia, including 104 deaths and 7,355 have been reported as recovered from COVID-19.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Worth noting the Virus is out of control in Mexico too and for all of Trump’s caging the children that border is hardly a barrier, plenty of people go back on forth over it legally.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
They are rich, white and the rules are for little people.
YY_Sima Qian
Yesterday, Beijing reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, and 1 new asymptomatic case. The confirmed case does not have any known connection to the Xinfadi wholesale produce exchange, and the transmission chain is unclear. He does live in Fengtai District, however, where 2/3 of the confirmed cases in Beijing are found. He developed COVID-19 symptoms on 6/21, but did not seek medical attention until 7/2, when he tested negative (but positive for IgG antibody) and was reported as a suspect case. He tested positive on 7/3. The case lives with his parents, and visited his wife and son on 6/17 – 6/20. It is likely he has infected at least some of his family members.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
In anecdotal information world; I live off a court on a major road in the East SF Bay Area, traffic at night had been notably picking up, it the last week at night it’s dead like at the height of the quarantine. So at lest here people seem to be taking it seriously.
YY_Sima Qian
@terben: Is it true some residential towers in Melbourne are being locked down China style — no one in or out, food and daily necessities to be delivered, police posted at the gates, and everyone tested?
terben
@YY_Sima Qian: The ABC is reporting that 9 public housing estates are being locked down immediately. I’m not sure if you can access the ABC from where you are.
……’those living in the nine public housing estates will be in a “hard lockdown” and not able to leave their residence for any reason.’
Kattails
Once again, Anne Laurie, I have to thank you for the amazing work you put into these with such consistency. This is a lot of data, I can’t even give it half the time it deserves every day, but I do check it out as much as possible.
I woke up this morning thinking about this new Trump mal-administration notion, i.e. “We give up. Live with it.” Spent an hour in bed trying to tamp down my rage so I could get a bit more sleep. Didn’t work.
Anya
Apparently Trump hates Jr’s girlfriend so he never wants to be around her. I found out yesterday that Guilfoyle is Gavin Newsom’s ex-wife.
YY_Sima Qian
@terben: ABC is typically available in 4-5 star hotels in China that cater to international travelers. However, everything is accessible with VPN.
To be honest I am a bit surprised that Australia (or is it Victoria state government?) is willing to go so hard core. I hope the deliveries is well managed. The logistics is not trivial.
Edmund Dantes
Can’t blame the Trump team for going with the “who coulda known” defense.
People forget how often the W administration deployed it with great effect. Though they had the benefit of being slightly more generally competent in other areas.
Shalimar
“We need to live with it” is Nazi-level evil. They do nothing because it’s killing people they want to kill, no concentration camps necessary.
Percysowner
@terben: I hope none of the residents have dogs, because that is the one thing that has to get out. I also hope they can have cats, fish or some companion animal to help them through this.
Shalimar
@WereBear: It isn’t especially his followers, not even in the South. You would think it would be since those are the idiots who vocally refuse to be human, but statistics say it is still predominantly minorities.
terben
@YY_Sima Qian: Health is a state government responsibility in Australia, so the response differs from state to state.
The lockdown is for 5 days only, so that everyone can be tested and the results determined. The logistics are not trivial, but state governments have been managing the quarantining of large numbers of returning travellers for some time now. All governments have had time to develop contingency plans for exactly this scenario, some better than others.
This outbreak seems to have started because the quarantine system that the Victorian government had in place broke down. I hope they do a better job with this lockdown. Only time will tell.
Sloane Ranger
So went into town and checked out the pubs (looked through their windows). Not all have re-opened. The Castello bar is still dark and those that are aren’t as full as they would usually be on a Saturday afternoon. Those that have Beer Gardens are using those in preference to inside seating.
The Horseshoe has a sign outside saying wait to be seated, while the Red Well, which I was most worried about as it’s part of the Brexit loving Wetherspoon’s chain, has one way traffic, has taken out some of the tables and chairs and has plexiglas screens between the remaining seating. I was most worried about The Hind, which had more people than I thought safe and whose ideas about social distancing seemed to consist of moving the tables a few inches further apart. Of course we’ll have to see that the evening brings us.
We will have to wait a fortnight to see if what they’ve done is enough
terben
@Percysowner: There are bound to be some pets involved. I can’t imagine that any group of 3000 people would be totally pet free. I have no idea how this lockdown is going to be managed, but I doubt that pets have been forgotten in the planning.
prostratedragon
@Sloane Ranger:
We will have to wait a fortnight to see if what they’ve done is enough
At least that long. For s&g I just ran cross-correlations between daily new deaths and new cases for Cook County (basically Chicago) and for NYC. Everything for 22 days in either direction was significant statistically, which means that stuff from 3 weeks before still shows up. Wasn’t expecting that loud and long.
drylake
@Amir Khalid: Probably a dead thread by now, the penalty of living on the left coast.
I eagerly open this thread first thing each morning, and mostly for your and Sima’s comments, which provide two of the very few rays of light each day in our benighted US of A.
I do have a question, though, Amir: given the substantial (although not overwhelming) number of recovered cases in Malaysia, it would seem to be the perfect place to examine the extent of residual organ damage in those recovered. Do you know of any such studies being conducted in Malaysia?
Citizen Alan
@Kattails:
Sigh. Remember when Kerry said that it was impossible to completely eliminate terrorism and so the focus of anti-terrorism efforts should be on getting it down to “manageable efforts”? The media crucified him for it. But yeah, this is fine.
Villago Delenda Est
Peter Navarro: “This looks like a weaponized virus.”
How the fuck would you know incompetent economist twit?
WhatsMyNym
Agriculture, it’s that time of the year in Eastern Washington –
Amir Khalid
@drylake:
The Health Miniatry has not mentioned doing any such studies, nor has anyone else; although they would indeed be a good idea. I guess it’s still busy handling the pandemic. Maybe they’ll do it once it’s pretty much eradicated.
Another Scott
Additional thanks from me, AL. And to our foreign friends with their daily updates.
ScienceMag:
(Emphasis added.)
Much more at the link.
As part of the Truth and Retribution commissions, we have to figure out why the CDC has failed so spectacularly and fix it. Similarly, more needs to be done in the WHO and EU health organizations to get scientifically meaningful results faster. More pandemics are coming…
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
COVID-101.org:
We’re learning more all the time, but much of it is indicating that the disease is even more insidious than we thought.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
TheConversation – Pooled COVID-19 Testing:
Why does it matter? See Paul Romer’s thread:
Stanford and Cornell are going to be using pooled testing to enable opening in the fall.
Something similar will be required for the public schools, and that can only happen with federal funding.
Cheers,
Scott.
Annie
@Anya:
and I bet Gavin thanks his lucky stars every day that she ditched him (though at the time he was devastated—I work in the San Francisco Civic Center and in the days after Guilfoyle left for New York he looked miserable).