The Outrider Foundation provides information on nuclear weapons and global warming. They’ve prettied up my words with an impressive set of pictures.
Sample:
An American test would likely be answered by Russian and Chinese tests, and perhaps by others. Although the United States, Russia, and China have mature arsenals and don’t need the tests to improve design, other countries like India, Pakistan, and North Korea would see an American test as an excuse to improve their designs to fit on smaller missiles.
Read the whole thing.
NotMax
“Real men don’t wear smoked glass goggles.”
//
Mary G
Great article, Cheryl. You cut to the heart of the matter:
I had a physical reaction when the mushroom cloud shot up under the article title, because this is just another brick in the wall of shit:
It’s going to be a long, hot summer.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Resuming testing is insane. We need these people out of office. They’ve damaged the country too much already.
bjacques
Trump would violate the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty if he could. Imagine the Fourth Of July display, though National Lampoon had the idea first with Project 1776.
low-tech cyclist
Just another day in Donald Trump’s War on America, unfortunately.
schrodingers_cat
He will do it because Putin wants him to do it.
Ohio Mom
This is why Trump must be put to trial and punished after his term, to show the rest of the world that we do have limits. Else why should they ever trust us again?
Does Biden ever have moments when he says to himself, Oh boy, what am I getting myself into?
No One of Consequence
No one should have nuclear weapons, including us. At this time in History, perhaps Most Especially Not Us.
We can’t even manage the expected Adult Behavioral Norms with our citizen-sported Small Arms, and clearly do not merit the possession of larger ones.
Peace, (please)
– NOoC
Paul T
I’m 66. Over the years, friends have been diagnosed with, and died from, several different kinds of cancers. I say the same thing about these events every time.
“We grew up while they were still doing atmospheric nuclear weapons testing.”
John Revolta
@NotMax: You know it’s coming.
“You get radiation from the sun! Checkmark, Libs!”
Geoboy
Given all the stuff that has to be done and the lead time to set up a test, would they be able to do it before January 20 next year?
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat: And why does Putin want the US to resume nuclear testing?
Amir Khalid
I blame the aide (whoever they may be) who told Trump that testing nukes was a bad idea, only to get the reply: “Oh, yeah? Well, you’re not the boss of me!”
Brachiator
These countries have developed nuclear weapons because they believe that it suits their national Interests. We can probably include Israel as well. I don’t see that they much cared what the US did or thought.
John Revolta
@Amir Khalid: I think it’s more like, “Little Rocket Man can test nukes but I can’t? What is that?”
Omnes Omnibus
@Amir Khalid: Oddly enough, I am working on a political theory of white people in the US that posits that most things happen based on “You are not my supervisor!” or “I would like to speak to your supervisor.” And then variations on the theme.
Mike in NC
Fat Bastard asked during the campaign, “What’s the point of having nukes if you can’t use them?” Apparently tough guys need to test them, too.
Mary G
Also, too, weapons manufacturing needs all the cash, not just most of it.
NotMax
Nuke testing=good
Virus testing=bad
The man is deranged.
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: If the United States starts testing then Russia can do that do. Russia wants to upend the post war consensus built by the United States. It wants the United States to be seen as an untrustworthy international partner.
prostratedragon
@schrodingers_cat: Precisely. Where the rage gets blinding.
One place, anyway.
schrodingers_cat
@schrodingers_cat: * too not do.
schrodingers_cat
@Brachiator: That is true but many countries that were formed after the Soviet Union collapsed gave up their nukes based on US assurances.
Just Chuck
@bjacques:
Seems Republican presidents can just withdraw from any treaty they feel like anyway. But I’m sure Turtle would make sure the Senate strongly asserted its prerogative with respect to treaties.
Brachiator
Trump doesn’t simply believe in American Exceptionalism. He believes in Trump Exceptionalism. And Cheryl has touched on this before: Trump doesn’t believe in treaties; he believes in deals, and sees himself as the greatest dealmaker in history.
Trump also likes the idea of big and powerful weapons, and lots of them. You might see him talking about his beautiful nuclear missiles as though the military arsenal is his personal possession.
So he has this fantasy that he can abrogate all previous treaties and use American military superiority to force Russia and China to bend to his will. He thinks some variation of this will work on North Korea.
Cameron
“Many people have told me, all the best scientists have told me, they say, ‘Mr. President, Mr. President, please tell Americans – just stand at the edge of the nuclear blast zone and that bomb will instantly wipe out the Chinese virus from your body.’ I say, what do you have to lose?”
Brachiator
@schrodingers_cat:
Isn’t this mainly true of countries that were part of the former Soviet Union? Both India and Pakistan “surprised” the US when they announced that they had nuclear weapons. Israel has pursued it’s own interests. I think that South Africa quietly dismantled it’s nuclear weapons program.
And the harsh reality is that almost any technologically advanced nation with sufficient resources can go nuclear if it wanted to so.
And there can be no global assurances with Trumps brutal America First foreign policy stance.
Mike in Pasadena
trump admin wants to invoke the provisions of Iran nuclear deal while it walked away from the agreement. Contract law by trumplicans.
Chris Johnson
@schrodingers_cat:
Cat is right about this one. Putin does want the US to resume nuclear testing and to threaten people on the geopolitical stage.
Only in part because he controls the Executive Branch and Senate: it’s not that he sees the US as a full-on puppet state. It’s more that the US is a partial puppet state of Russia, and is being made to faceplant and undermine its own authority and significance.
If we can’t be destroyed completely we’re to be left squabbling over a pile of broken things, and to be treated like a large group of toddlers with automatic weapons and dynamite vests. Putin’s interest is in Russia being seen as the grown-ups in the room, and the preferred allies for anyone else in the world who’s not pants-on-head crazy.
Russia being Russia and Putin being Putin, this is a big ask, so Trump’s gotta really push the envelope to accomplish that one. I’m pretty sure it’s not a work: they are using Trump being Trump. I’d really be interested to know who are most directly Trump’s handlers for Putin. I’ve got a short list of names that I think are dirty as hell (and also, disciplined and not entirely stupid).
Geminid
Thank you for the very informative and well written article. Curious: is it known who in the trump administration is pushing nuclear tests? Sounds like something Steven Miller would come up with. I hope he’s not weighing in on matters like this. If Trump gets serious about a test I hope it can be slow walked, or people persuade him that it will hurt his chances for reelection. But he will be a lame duck for eight weeks, and there is just no telling what he’ll try to do then.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Bingo!
Martin
I can’t imagine anyone around the nuclear arsenal thinks this is a good idea. They know full well they don’t need testing. That’s what supercomputers are for. And they know that testing led to stupid ideas like ‘hey, let’s try mining with nukes!’.
Anyway, my current project is by far the hardest thing I’ve ever done. Academic papers are among the least enjoyable things to read, and ones outside of your field are particularly headache-inducing. I’m making progress but there’s not a ton of expertise I possess that’s gotten applied to this so far. I’ve got half a dozen mini-courses under my belt with seemingly an infinite number yet to choose from. It’s thus far been very Sisyphean. There will be a flush of satisfaction at some point, but it’s still a ways off I fear.
mrmoshpotato
Cancer-causing big booms are just what we need now! Let’s nuke COVID-19!
This fucking dumbshit, bastard administration…
Martin
@Brachiator: Not really. South Africa, Chile, quite a few others around. Many were very primitive, mind you, but NK shows what a backwater can accomplish standing on the shoulders of giants.
mrmoshpotato
@Mike in NC: Yup. Was just thinking about that reading through the comments.
And the orange Soviet shitpile mobster conman also asked why Saudi Arabia and Japan can’t have nukes.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: Testing nuking the virus=AWESOME, YOU LIBTARD EGGHEADS!
MisterForkbeard
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Yeah, but liberals said we haven’t done ENOUGH testing*, so there!
*COVID testing, but that’s cool. They’re pretty similar.
Cheryl Rofer
@schrodingers_cat:
@Brachiator:
When the Soviet Union broke up, it had nuclear weapons stationed in what became Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Russia was the inheritor of nuclear weapons status in terms of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and the others weren’t. Those nuclear weapons were always controlled by Moscow, which had the codes and such necessary to maintain and use them.
Kazakhstan immediately decided to become non-nuclear and sent the nukes back as rapidly as possible, followed fairly quickly by Belarus. Ukraine did a bit more negotiating and got paid to send the weapons back. All three ratified the NPT as non-nuclear weapons states.
South Africa had six nuclear weapons, which it disassembled and joined the NPT.
Geminid
@Martin: I’m guessing that Germany and Japan are each in a position to develop nuclear weapons relatively quickly if they thought they had to. Both countries are basically anti-war, but a hard headed view of security might preclude unconditional reliance on the American nuclear umbrella.
Cheryl Rofer
@Geminid:
I have not seen any names, but there has been a small group of Republican politicians and advisors who would like to see testing resumed. I can think of one former director of a weapons laboratory who has spoken about this. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tom Cotton thought it was cool, and John Bolton and Tim Morrison would be for it. I can’t think of an immediate suspect in the White House, but as others have noted in this thread, Trump is clearly intrigued by “the power,” as he has said.
debbie
This is the first I’ve heard of this, and it is very bad news. The main attraction for Trump is his use of it as a distraction. A major, very dangerous distraction.
Just Chuck
@Cheryl Rofer: Does it even matter? Pick any of the vile garbage in the administration: if it hurts people not like them, or the planet in general, they’re for it.
CarolDuhart2
@Geoboy: Probably not…and who’s left who probably knows how to do a live test? Computers are more precise anyway and can calculate effects down to the minute anyway. There’s nothing that a live test could learn.
It’s Trumptian dick-wagging, a substitute for the one which no longer works. Its to finally silence the voices inside and outside his head that increasingly mock him and his inability to really get what he wants. It takes him back to where he is increasingly going in his mind, the 1965 world where his daddy was alive and those people knew their place, women like Nancy were the pretty secretaries and older office managers who were seen and not heard. Its a world where money was steel bars and concrete and didn’t need a whole lot of smarts to make.
Cheryl Rofer
@Just Chuck: That too
Brachiator
@Martin:
We are not really disagreeing. South Africa is still a relatively advanced nation, and when it did not have to spend money on the entire nation, they had sufficient infrastructure to develop a modest nuclear program. They also had help from Israel.
Since North Korea was a dictatorship, they could create a techology rich oasis by funneling revenues into military programs. No one could complain about money not being used for domestic programs. They also had assistance from Pakistan.
Couldn’t tell you about Chile, but they have gone through periods of economic prosperity.
To call these nations “backwaters” is insufficient.
Knowledge about nuclear weapons is fairly easy to obtain. I think that Cheryl probably knows the threshold of technological infrastructure that is required to be able to develop and maintain nuclear weapons. Delivery systems and long term development might be another issue.
I sometimes joke that in the future, middle school kids will develop nuclear reactors as homework assignments.
@Cheryl Rofer:
Thanks very much for this.
Martin
@Brachiator: I didn’t mean the nations were primitive, rather the nuclear programs were.
I called NK a backwater, because it is, and in certain ways aspires to be, much as Trump aspires for the US to not advance beyond his understanding.
Just Chuck
@Brachiator:
How about a merit badge?
Brachiator
@Martin:
How sophisticated to they need to be? Could India and Pakistan bomb the shit out of each other? And they can be regional powers even if they could not go head to head with the big boys.
Again, this is not relevant to how nations might be able to channel resources into developing nuclear weapons.
And of course, these nations can pour money into developing scientists and engineers. And in the case of North Korea, we know that they spent money on the military and neglected everything else (aside from the ruling elite, of course).
gbbalto
@Geminid: Canada has had that capability since WW2. India and Pakistan both used Canadian reactor technology to breed nuke fuel.
J R in WV
@Cheryl Rofer:
A great article, Cheryl. Well thought out, well written.
I would be shocked if there are not a number of nation-states who have already secretly built nuclear devices for their own protection. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, for sure, now that they’ve seen that they can no longer count on the US and our nuclear “Shield”.
Germany too. I’m sure Saudi Arabia wants weapons, but they don’t know how to build them, really. So I imagine they offered Pakistan untold billions of dollars / barrels of oil for a handful of devices and the expertise to care for and use them. Just in case, you know.
A number of years ago someone curated old film of nuclear tests into digital format, and they were posted on the internet. I don’t have a link, but I am sure a little searching will turn the series of films up. Amazing material. Highly recommended that everyone look at Shiva astride this world. Some were squirts of failure, but most were awesome displays of incredible power at the Shiva level.
Also, there’s a great video showing every nuclear explosion in our world’s history graphically over the passage of time from 1945-date. It too is sobering, terrifying. No wonder cancer is running crazy among us! Tiny pop here, there, then a raging fire of nuclear explosions all over the world.
Never know so many went off in Nevada~!~ Of course, the South Pacific was our bathtub after we defeated Japan, and between us and the French, we irradiated it pretty well.
Lately I’m glad we don’t have children… I don’t need to feel guilty about leaving this shitty world to my children, just everyone else’s kids.
Also, I hope I live to see Chump leave the white house, hoping it’s not under his own power but strapped to a gurney, screaming at the Secret Service as they deliver him to, some appropriate fate. Hospital for the criminally insane, prison awaiting trial, anything along those lines…
NotMax
@Geminid
No guesswork involved when it comes to Japan. Being nuclear capable has been the posture for quite some time.
J R in WV
@gbbalto:
If I were Canadian Prime Minister, I would build nukes, to protect my nation from dangerous neighbors. I am not a world leader, though. Fortunately.
They would be very stupid not to at this point, with a deranged would be dictator next door, mumbling about the big bombs~!~
Cheryl Rofer
@J R in WV:
The person who did that gave an illustrated talk at the Bradbury Science Museum in Los Alamos, which I attended.
Building nuclear weapons has two big downsides: It’s very expensive, and it puts a target on your back. Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, along with Germany, which was mentioned upthread, are all signatories to the NPT, and someone would have seen signs of their building nuclear weapons. In today’s world, that’s hard to keep secret. Valarie Plame is billed as a female James Bond, but from what I’ve read, it’s more likely that she was one of the people who keep track of those signs, mainly through invoices and other paperwork. And now there are many people, in government and out, who pore over satellite photos for those signs. China would certainly say something if they suspected, as would Russia.
The technology of nuclear weapons, obviously, is a 1940s thing. We have computers and widgets today that make it “easier.” But the need for uranium, plutonium, and extremely fast timing devices, with a fair bit of technical knowledge, means that only very determined nations are candidates for building them.
Cheryl Rofer
@J R in WV:
I love that video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLCF7vPanrY
Procopius
@Omnes Omnibus: Good question. I don’t for a moment believe he would. If Trump does, I believe Putin will just sit back and say, “I have no need to test. Our nuclear warheads are reliable.” The Chinese will just say, “the Imperialist Running Dogs are provoking us. We have already proven Chinese warheads are superior thanks to the thought of Chairman Mao.”
However I suspect that both China and Russia are gaming us. They announce they have these cool new weapons, our MIC sees an opportunity for massive
lootingprofit, and we spend ourselves into oblivion to produce weapons that don’t actually work. Meanwhile they don’t actually have such fantasy weapons and sit at home giggling.Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator:
To Trump, a great deal is one where you screw the other party; if they aren’t the sucker then you’re the sucker. The very best kind is where you come to what seems to be a mutually beneficial agreement, and then you just break it and throw a terrifying screaming fit when they protest.
It works great as long as the other party is someone much less powerful than you, like a flooring contractor. Of course he tries this with other countries’ authoritarian leaders and just gets played.