"Trust us, the worst is yet ahead of us," warned the WHO on Monday as global coronavirus cases neared 2.5 million. pic.twitter.com/8Yj8YZCpzk
— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) April 21, 2020
Really interesting — and sobering — exploration of what the #SARSCoV2 virus can do to various organs & bodily systems when someone develops severe #Covid19. By @meredithwadman & colleagues from @ScienceMagazine. https://t.co/TAPNvQ6ptK
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) April 20, 2020
More than 2.4 million cases of the coronavirus have been confirmed globally, with over 169,000 people dead.
Our interactive map tracks the spread of the outbreak ⤵️https://t.co/u4S2GwpjIQ
— NPR (@NPR) April 21, 2020
#Coronavirus latest:
-Cases top 2.4 million; deaths exceed 170,000
-Virus wipes out more than 90% of international flights
-Indonesia bans mass travel ahead of Eid festival
-China reports its sixth straight day without a fatalityhttps://t.co/pISGly5qde— Bloomberg (@business) April 21, 2020
U.S. coronavirus deaths top 42,000 as protesters demand restrictions end: Reuters tally https://t.co/RmshcnfJLU pic.twitter.com/NLUiPEq9f0
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 21, 2020
Thread from an outbreak science + epidemiology + health security specialist:
All proposed plans for reopening, incl ours, rely on testing + contact tracing. The US is at ~ 1M tests/wk. @ashishkjha thinks we need 3.5M/wk minimum. Others wants several times that. Whatever the goal, it’s clear what we have is not enough. But when is that capacity coming? 1/
— Caitlin Rivers, PhD (@cmyeaton) April 20, 2020
We could continue staying at home until case counts fall to a point where our test capacity is enough. For reference, ~2% of tests come back positive in South Korea, and ~ 7% in Germany. In the US it’s currently ~20%. 3/ https://t.co/PwgtPEt25T
— Caitlin Rivers, PhD (@cmyeaton) April 20, 2020
We need a realistic understanding of our timeline for testing capacity so we know what we are working with. And we need to continue to push for innovative ways to expand that capacity so that test, trace, isolate can be options for controlling spread when incidence declines. 6/6
— Caitlin Rivers, PhD (@cmyeaton) April 20, 2020
Hard to escape conclusion there have been 1 million SARS-CoV-2 infections in NYC #COVID19. Two lines of reasoning:
1. @NEJM reports ~15% pregnant women +.
2. ~15,000 deaths, if infection fatality ratio is near 1%.
Both point to likelihood of approx. 1 million infected in NYC.— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) April 20, 2020
Reports of silent coronavirus infections have come from a homeless shelter in Boston, a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, pregnant women at a New York hospital and elsewhere. https://t.co/kDiV66A9EN
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 20, 2020
Why are a lot of scientists questioning the Santa Clara serology results? "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," notes @pleunipennings in a terrific explainer. https://t.co/RiAQLrrXVd
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) April 20, 2020
It's very early days for these kinds of studies. But even if these are true, 4% is nowhere near herd immunity — if it exists for this virus. https://t.co/er4fWKHoTv
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) April 20, 2020
From reopening bookstores in Germany to beaches in Sydney, countries around the world are taking advantage of flattening coronavirus curves to tentatively ease lockdowns. The move comes as the debate over re-opening grows more heated in the U.S. https://t.co/Npb3kjmONN
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 20, 2020
Delight, relief and caution: six experts on New Zealand's move to ease its coronavirus lockdown
-keeping mind that NZs restrictions were harsher than those in some other contry's; they are trying to eliminate transmissionhttps://t.co/AJ8f8i7Jdn via @ConversationEDU— Prof Palpatine, ᴘʜᴅ ?????? (@MackayIM) April 20, 2020
It's fantastic that South Korea is reopening malls, restaurants, and clubs.
It's also important to be clear what that re-opening model entails: a test & trace apparatus capable of identifying and quarantining 1,000+ people in 48 hours if one family tests positive for the virus. pic.twitter.com/lOsPRDBg1S
— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) April 20, 2020
EU in disarray over lockdown easing https://t.co/zlTq0uSOa3
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) April 20, 2020
Hope as Italy records first fall in active virus cases https://t.co/siKDsUzG0I
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) April 20, 2020
"but “people get intimate when they get drunk"
'We can't let up': Hong Kong battles complacency amid new wave of Covid-19
-from 27MAR2020https://t.co/4Jtbs72Pqn— Prof Palpatine, ᴘʜᴅ ?????? (@MackayIM) April 20, 2020
Singapore confirms 1,426 new coronavirus cases – its biggest daily jump yet
With just over 8,000 cases, the country has the most number of infections in Southeast Asiahttps://t.co/67NaJZN2o6 pic.twitter.com/DcnTMHrcR2
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) April 20, 2020
Singapore did almost everything right when it came to fighting the coronavirus. But now its caseload has spiked, a situation that shows how hard it will be for countries to return to the way they were anytime soon. https://t.co/17uWG8MtSF
— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 21, 2020
WHO says concerned about rising confirmed cases in Japan https://t.co/Wo1SDFfk9a pic.twitter.com/afDcuUIpEQ
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 21, 2020
"Spy agencies have ruled out that the coronavirus was man-made, the officials said" https://t.co/4HhinnLR5E
— Prof Palpatine, ᴘʜᴅ ?????? (@MackayIM) April 20, 2020
India coronavirus: Twenty held for stopping funeral of doctor who died of Covid-19 https://t.co/GpxU99gx6D
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) April 21, 2020
Exporting coronavirus? Infections among U.S. deportees reach Haiti, Mexico https://t.co/tBoewWe3ok pic.twitter.com/izGfjSYE4e
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 21, 2020
The health care system is buckling in the Brazilian Amazon city of Manaus because of the coronavirus outbreak. It could be grim glimpse of what lies ahead for Brazil as President Jair Bolsonaro encourage people to ignore stay-at-home recommendations. https://t.co/kLtECoz1xr
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 20, 2020
Longish read, but well worth it:
Carnival’s cruise ship executives knew earlier than most just how bad the coronavirus problem was. They kept the party going as long as possible https://t.co/2ok9LRkMW2 via @BW
— Bloomberg (@business) April 18, 2020
Significant paper on the cost of misinformation. Basically, one standard deviation more viewership of Sean Hannity (denied seriousness of COVID) versus Tucker Carlson (took the pandemic seriously) is associated with in 20% more deaths at the county-level. https://t.co/7wDDXVOiu6 pic.twitter.com/lvHijnhOA5
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) April 20, 2020
mrmoshpotato
I didn’t have “Hanging cruise ship execs” on my card, but here we are apparently.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s daily numbers: New cases 57, total 5,482; deaths 3, total 92. Recovered 54, total 3,349 (61% of total cases). 18 of the cases recorded today were Malaysians returning from abroad, the rest from infection in the community.
Chyron HR
@mrmoshpotato:
I’d be willing to let them off if they argue, “But President Trump said it was a hoax!”
OzarkHillbilly
I have a hard time accepting Tucker Carlson as the voice of reason. I wonder why?
Amir Khalid
A disturbing report from the CNN liveblog on violence against medical personnel treating Covid-19 in India:
mrmoshpotato
@Chyron HR: Letting them off in the middle of the Pacific?
mrmoshpotato
@OzarkHillbilly: If I go wash my hands, is it then ok to stroke my chin while I ponder that?
mrmoshpotato
@Amir Khalid: What the?
raven
from the editor of Decaturish:
You really want to know what I think about rescinding shelter in place in the way this order is structured?
It’s about making sure people can’t file unemployment. It isn’t about saving lives, certainly. It’s not about the peak of the curve. I think lots of people are going to ignore the governor and stay home regardless. This isn’t a decision being driven by epidemiology. It’s the rawest and most lethal of political decisions, and it will kill people.
Kemp is looking forward to the fiscal discussion in 2021 and 2022, when all of this really starts to hit. He got elected by out-yahooing the field. His base has been trained to view government spending as a crime, and he knows that he becomes politically vulnerable to an attack if he raises taxes. He is not capable of delivering a nuanced message around necessity, because his base doesn’t know how to hear it.
The state is staring at one million unemployment applications. It probably cannot pay those over six months. The unemployment fund has a reserve of about $2.6 billion. Last week it paid out about $42 million — which is about three times as much as it usually does. That figure will double in two weeks, give or take. Maybe more.
At that rate, the fund is empty in about 28 weeks. Probably less. Even if things improve later, that fund will run dry in a year, because unemployment isn’t going to return to 5 percent for a long time.
Georgians did the Kansas thing a couple of years ago and instituted a hard constitutional limit on income taxes of 6 percent. It cannot go higher without amending the state constitution. What that means is that there’s no easy mechanism for the state to accommodate an extraordinary expense, like this, without somehow telling Republican reactionaries that they must raise taxes.
Those reactionaries are the ones who will be protesting in front of the state house Friday, when this order goes into effect.
If there’s no state order calling for businesses to be closed, the people who are unemployed can no longer claim that their unemployment is involuntary, even if it would be utter idiocy for them to return to work. A hair dresser or a massage therapist cannot maintain social distance. But they can certainly file for relief … unless the law says they can work.
“Gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools & massage therapists.”
Not banks. Not software firms. Not factories. Not schools.
It is no coincidence that the businesses on this list are staffed by relatively poor people. Because that’s who he wants off the unemployment rolls. And if they die … well, they’re mostly black people, or Asian, and poor, and an acceptable political loss for a Republican governor.
The purpose of this isn’t to open up these businesses. It’s to get the workers there off the dole. Work, and die. Or don’t work … but you’re on your own. Because we can’t raise taxes to cover the time you spent trying to save your life and the lives of the people around you.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
That’s been obvious for a while;
South Korea 10,674 cases 236 deaths 1 in 45
Ice Land 1,773 cases 10 deaths 1 in 177
Singapore 7,213 cases 11 deaths 1 in 655
United States 790,480 cases 42,200 deaths 1 in 18
So unless American Corona virus is Number One on Deadly, our shit isn’t together on detecting it. Which is of course unpossible.
Going by Singapore’s numbers that means 27 million Americans have already had the virus.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: From an AP article:
I wonder how one tattoos, cuts hair, or gives a massage from 6 feet away
germy
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@raven: It’s an interesting point, but these days I think it’s far to deep thinking for Republicans; they want to get their hair cut and a session with their sex worker after being shut in with the family for a month. And by they, I mean Kemp, himself.
Sloane Ranger
The problem for him and the idiots supporting reopening these businesses is that these unimportant people will catch the disease and pass it on to their white middle class important people customers. I suspect they won’t be so casual about this when they’re the ones struggling for breath.
They may believe they are different from “The Other” but the virus begs to disagree.
germy
Geminid
Jack Kemp is just an ass, who cheated his way into his job. Assuming she is not on the national ticket, I look forward to seeing Stacey Abrams run him out of the Georgia Governor’s Mansion in 2022.
debbie
Thanks for the link to that article in Science Magazine. It’s really very enlightening. We are screwed.
raven
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I agree, the idea that “mostly black people, or Asian, and poor? “Gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools & massage therapists.” is a bit whacky.
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: He also made is so no local government can override the order. We’ve been way out front here in Athens but we’ll see now.
mrmoshpotato
@OzarkHillbilly: How does one kick Kemp in the crotch from 6 feet away?
SFAW
@Geminid:
But he was a pretty good quarterback. Brian Kemp, on the other hand, has absolutely nothing to recommend him.
Anne Laurie
@raven: Thanks! Just ‘repurposed’ Mr. Chidi’s letter for a post on that very topic, due to pop up around 9:30am, FYWP willing.
OzarkHillbilly
@mrmoshpotato: With somebody else’s foot. I’ll bet his wife has thought about it a time or 2.
zzyzx
” But even if these are true, 4% is nowhere near herd immunity ”
Well yeah, but the point is that California has barely been hit. The open question here (assuming immunity exists, which I’m going to right now, because if it doesn’t we have to completely change our approach) is if the current wave we’re having will leave 3-4% of the population with antibodies or 15-20%. The former is a much different situation – and much better – than the latter. This is information we need to know to know how deadly the virus is and how many more huge waves we’re likely to expect.
It’s not, “Wooo! This means we’re cured!” but “Whew, this would put us on a path that is still bad, but not nearly as bad as some of the others we could be on.”
azlib
For the lawyers on the list – is it possible Hannity and Fox will get sued for the lethal disinformation they spread and on what legal theory?
charon
Article at Daily Beast suggests obesity is the worst comorbidity to have with COVID-19 – worse than age, COPD, high BP etc.
Paywalled though.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-coronavirus-pandemic-shows-why-we-have-to-tackle-the-obesity-crisis?ref=topic
May explain why mortality is so high in the U.S., considering obesity prevalence.
Cheryl from Maryland
Great article from Science Magazine. It’s clear from various reports from individual doctors that there are differing ideas as to how the worst cases of COVID-19 attack the body and thus how to treat them. But to see all of these thoughts in one place is impressive and reinforces the need to keep stay-at-home, social distancing, mask-wearing, etc. not only to keep people alive but to give scientists and doctors the time to understand COVID-19 and the appropriate therapies. Especially since, as one doctor mentioned in the article, vascular issues are more of a factor in a serious case than respiratory conditions, suggesting that breathing issues are a by-product of the virus’s attack, not its main focus.
laura
@mrmoshpotato: you lash a stout boot to a barge pole and then commence to crotch kicking. Safe and effective! That twitter thread about opening up the country state capital cracker fests nails it – the demand that others return to work to serve the privileged. Really gets down to the heart of the matter that our service economy is designed to crush those doing the serving.
Geminid
@Geminid: sorry, that’s Georgia governor Brian Kemp,not Jack Kemp.
Geminid
@Geminid: sorry, that’s Georgia governor Brian Kemp,not Jack Kemp.
Another Scott
@raven: Absolutely correct.
I’m sure this is at least part of the thinking why Moscow Mitch and the GOP Senate is so dead-set against spending what it takes to make the states and localities whole for the duration. They want to force them to make huge cuts to their already meager social safety nets. It’s always, always, about punching down.
Thanks for posting it.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@mrmoshpotato:
Stochastic mass murder demands a lot more than a simple crotch kick. If it were being committed by left of center people, there would be quite open talk (or more) of 2nd Amendment solutions.
tybee
@raven:
that’s pretty ugly and i don’t really doubt it.