May oil futures are negative. People are paying other people to figure out how to store May oil production contracts:
Now might be a wonderful time to add a $0.50 or $1.00 per gallon gas tax.
by David Anderson| 109 Comments
This post is in: Climate Change Solutions, Energy Policy, Open Threads
Comments are closed.
Don K
Yikes!!
“I’ll pay you to take this oil off of my hands. I don’t know what the fuck to do with it!!”
trollhattan
Happy tenth anniversary of Deepwater Horizon–one in a series of “Obama’s Katrinas.”
Now how about we dump the PV panel tariffs and build a bunch more solar farms?
Fair Economist
Not normal, and yes, good time for a gas tax.
I really cannot figure out how the price could go so low, though. “Taking delivery” at Cushing includes having a place to pipe it out. Really, there’s nobody connected to the pipeline network or with some tankers who can store oil for a month to make $60 per barrel?
Edit: presumably a number of traders and trading companies got wiped out by today. That could have consequences too.
Brachiator
People aren’t driving and we don’t know how many people will return to work if we lift restrictions. Also, high levels of unemployment may persist. This may not be a wonderful time to increase gas taxes.
However, I would like to see Trump repeal his dumbass tariffs.
cain
What’s going to happen is that the federal govt is going to buy all that crude oil at 4x it is worth and let it stay there.
NotMax
The trend for several months has been downward yet the price of gasoline – here – hasn’t moved by a penny, unless that penny is up.
jl
Not normal, but can happen with stock-flow equilibria. If flow of production needs to keep going in order not to damage the well (which petroleum engineers have told me is often the case), may be worth it pay to give the currently produced oil away in order to preserve future production. At least as long as the producer decides that it is worth keeping option of future production, that is, has not made a permanent shut down decision.
Maybe some BJ petroleum engineers can chime in on the issues involved in drastic reductions in flow out of some types of oil wells.
different-church-lady
Well, having an economy was a fun thing while it lasted, but now it’s back to hunting and gathering…
cmorenc
In country where a strongly prevailing majority of its citizens were sane, unselfish, and intelligently foresightful, this would already have been done long ago. But unfortunately, we live in a country where 27% are bat-shit crazy, selfish, and incapable of foresight (except the evangelicals looking forward to Heaven). And at least another 20% who are piggish and short-sighted and easily enough fooled to elect a narcissistic, ignorant, sociopathic carnival barker as President.
Calouste
@Fair Economist:
Tankers are already in use to store excess oil, I don’t know how much spare capacity is there. And of course, it takes a while to get a supertanker from one place to another.
Refineries are probably also not that interested in processing oil when they can’t sell the products they make of it and have no place to store it. It might be a lot easier for them to lower capacity or shutdown than to store products that they have no place for.
Omnes Omnibus
@NotMax: Regular was under $1.00 last Friday at some places in Madison.
Another Scott
@Fair Economist: Wasn’t there an Eddie Murphy and Dan Ackroyd movie about almost this exact situation??
It’s a really, really bad thing to be on the wrong end of a commodity trade. As I understand it, most of the traders close out their positions at the end of the day, and they never actually take delivery of stuff. How many of us have a place to put 500,000 barrels of oil (which weighs 75,000 tons)??
These traders with these contracts have to get rid of the stuff somehow, even if they have to pay someone to take it.
Cheers,
Scott.
mrmoshpotato
@trollhattan: Obummer’s Katrinas! Get it right.
SW
How long before they start dumping it in the ocean?
mrmoshpotato
Well, I see oil is trying to put itself back into the ground. Good luck to it.
rikyrah
I hope that this picture shows up.???
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e41e0e11c2e86f4b49bd30477d20d00c782329ddc091c57684e9e2acf88e2816.jpg
?BillinGlendaleCA
@trollhattan:
Now that’s just crazy talk.
rikyrah
I am stunned too. Definitely not good news for oil states
mrmoshpotato
@SW: I support this!
Hoodie
@Fair Economist: From what I’ve read, storage is nearly topped out. They’re talking about storage in idle tankers, but can’t imagine the economics of that will be all that great unless demand rebounds really fast. The US industry is screwed because a lot of small producers will just go bankrupt under these circumstances. They’re kind of in the same boat as the airlines, massive demand destruction and no prospect of near term reversal, with the added dimension that the Russians and the Saudis will be able to cover most near term renewed demand at lower cost anyway. Trying to save the industry is probably an exercise in futility because I think already fracked wells are kind of a wasting asset. We’re idiots if we don’t use this as an opportunity to invest in solar fields, wind fields, transmission lines and electric vehicles to boost demand for electricity and equipment to serve them. Use the cheap gas for that, not to build a fleet of gas guzzler pickups. Better than keeping a bunch of airlines and frackers in business.
mrmoshpotato
@trollhattan:
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Dump would probably rather extinguish the Sun.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Another Scott: Baggage handlers 1 and 2 made that movie.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@SW: BP tried that, didn’t work well.
prostratedragon
Have read that this is the first time for the oil market at least since the current form of contracts started trading in the 1980s. I’ll bet it’s happened to other commodities in the past though. For instance, whatever their contract markets are showing, the effective price of the foods that are being dumped, as normally delivered, must be negative.
Music for the contemplation of negative oil prices:
?BillinGlendaleCA
@mrmoshpotato: If you can’t monetize it, what’s the point in having it.
Fair Economist
@Hoodie: I get that storage might be completely topped out – but in that case the June contracts should be at $0 too because this oil isn’t going to get used next month.
Maybe that’s behind the crazy drive to “re-open the country”. There has been a lot of money in oil in the past. A few months of this means bankruptcy for a lot of oil barons. That could drive them to fund the crazies.
Hoodie
@Fair Economist: I suspect it may be part of it, and the rest is the hospitality and leisure industries. They are screwed for the foreseeable future. Trump has obvious ties to that, and it’s pretty clear he’s obsessed with fossil fuels like coal and oil, since they don’t cause cancer like windmills.
Calouste
@Fair Economist: It takes a while for production cuts at the wellhead to take effect downstream. Supertankers are still travelling the globe, pipelines are still filled with oil that’s moving at a pretty low speed (5-10 mph I think). So probably next month supply will actually be closer to demand.
SW
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Trump removed the sanctions so no problem.
Another Scott
@Fair Economist:
Liz Dye at Wonkette (today):
Cheers,
Scott.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Hoodie: Now lets get this straight about the windmills. The windmills kill millions upon millions of birds, it’s the sound of the windmills that causes cancer*.
*This is why I crank the car audio system up to 11 when I go though areas with windmills, can’t be too safe.
Victor Matheson
As I told my kids today, the oil future market is like trading Pokemon cards, but imagine one day any Pokemon a card you are holding will actually show up on your doorstep. Not a problem if it is a Pikachu, but definitely a problem if it is a Tyranitar. Normally, not a problem. Just throw a Pokeball at the sucker and you can safely store him away. But, if the market is out of pokeballs, you will pay a lot to get rid of that Tyranitar before it lands on your doorstep. So rather than being a valuable card, instead the card has a negative value.
See, everything can easily be related to Pokemon.
Victor Matheson
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Bill, why don’t you just buy a louder radio that only goes to 10?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Victor Matheson: It’s what came with the Prius.
mrmoshpotato
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Exactimundo!
khead
@Another Scott:
If I may borrow from Atrios: “Turn those machines back on!”
hueyplong
@?BillinGlendaleCA: If only Cletus knew that it’s a windmill bolted to his pickup bed, and not rolling coal, that will fuck up your Prius-driving, libtard self with the cancer.
Achrachno
@Fair Economist: “one day when the oil barons have all dripped dry”
Is that day here now?
PenAndKey
@Omnes Omnibus: when I left for work this morning it was running $1.05 per gallon in La Crosse. I haven’t seen prices this low since I was a teenager. I’ll be honest though, with my wife current laid off and me still clocking 90 miles a day going to and from work every day I’m enjoying the low prices no matter how much they indicate we’re fucked.
mrmoshpotato
Does Cole own no hats? Not even bandanas? :)
Ohio Mom
rikyrah @16: Very clever! Ohio Dad and I enjoyed the Aha moment when it all came together for us.
Croaker
Totally not oil related. Fine outstanding patriot wanted for https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/pennsylvania-homicide-suspect-arrest-jacksonville-florida-beach/2368576/
hueyplong
Looks like Georgia is going for it, not even waiting for May 1 to be “open for business” so as better to buss the Squatter’s ample backside.
Maybe they’ve been promised the stockpiled ventilators.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
have we blown this thread open? trump has the chief of the Army Corps of Engineers at his briefing
anybody watching? Cause it sounds like a high-ranking official with significant responsibilities walked out of the Baboon Show to get to work
mrmoshpotato
Edit 2: I believe this is called “Stealing an election to kill your own voters to own the libs.”
Baud
U.S. to World: Will work for test kits
TS (the original)
@Another Scott:
It warms the cockles of my heart to read reality in comments like this.
Old Dan and Little Ann
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The baboon show. That got me laighing out loud while sitting in the 45 degree sun in my backyard. I hope there is a clip of it.
AnotherBruce
Well, the sky is blue, and the trees are full of birds Opie.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: I keep seeing people saying on twitter this is a great example of leadership. Strikes me as somewhat more important that it’s struggling to cope with an absence of leadership
OTOH, someone has seen that praise, and maybe even understood the implicit criticism
Ruckus
@Fair Economist:
The price has gone so low because so many people world wide have stopped driving – staying home. Ships that use thousands of gallons a day aren’t going anywhere. Areas that produce electricity with fuel oil used for production of goods need less.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
He had a personal connection to South Korea that he used. That’s great, but not all that leaderly. But people like stories about people who go around the system to get things done. But as long as it makes Trump look bad, what else can you ask for?
Croaker
@hueyplong: Yippie. First going to get my tat of an American Eagle with an AR-15 Trump 2020 logo …then hit my local massage pallor …wait no bars?
mrmoshpotato
@Baud: I remember years ago Noam Chomsky was talking about W’s Operation Enduring Freedom, and the professor noted that “To ‘endure’ means to suffer.”
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
Had to go to market today, lowest I saw here in the workers paradise was $2.79/gal. I use 3 to 4 gal a month now so I haven’t shopped in a while.
Croaker
@mrmoshpotato: endeavor to persevere
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXsAdx51gCk
Elizabelle
@rikyrah: Love it. Apropos.
bemused
@hueyplong:
19,000 confirmed cases in Georgia and gov wants people to be liberated from avoiding the virus. Insanity!
JPL
Sad news for TX and OK which main source of income is oil revenue.
Mai naem mobile
@cain: Orange Idiot already bought a bunch to fill up the strategic reserve. I think I heard him mention that at the SOTU address where he said it was a real smart thing to do because oil was such a bargain back then – one more thing the Mr Art of the Deal was wrong about.
Regardless of the issues with fracking, the fact is this is going to be another factor in causing the economy to go in the toilet for a bunch of states – ND, PA, Ohio and the Oil Patch. The smaller oil cos. were in trouble anyway with corporate debt bombs.
JPL
@hueyplong: Let’s all go and sweat together. The one thing you can be assured about though is Kemp won’t be near those folks.
Elizabelle
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I watched 2 minutes of that, with Trump dissing Hogan (a Republican) and then on to Pritzker. The governors are fools who don’t understand what’s going on in their states. Unlike the mighty Trump.
Turned it off. What a liar. Happy to see that the WaPost website does not link to it today.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Ruckus: Best price I could find is $2.30 at the Alhambra Costco.
AnotherBruce
You know what would fix this mess? A big fat tax cut.
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus: Holee shit! It was at $1.90 in Cotopaxi (little hamlet on the highway between my place and Salida here in CO), last week, and that’s the first time I’ve seen it under $2.00 in…damn. Years.
Omnes Omnibus
@Miss Bianca: My car takes premium, but even that is under $2.00.
Mai naem mobile
Anybody else worried about Biden winning in November and wondering what Orange Douchebag will do between Nov 5 and mid January. He’s such a petty little man you damn well know he’s going to do some malicious stuff to damage not just Biden but the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t share intelligence briefings with the Biden team. Also I fully expect this worthless administration to leave every department full of mines including the COVID response. I hope one of Bidens early actions is to get rid of every Trumpov appointee root and branch. These people will affect the US government for decades.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mai naem mobile: All the political appointees are gone January 20 at noon, unless they are asked to stay on. I’m concerned a bit about burrowing some of the into civil service. Bush did this to some extent, but his administration was competent to some extent.
mrmoshpotato
@AnotherBruce:
Big fat tax cut for the fat cats, interest rates on loans through the roof, negative interest rates on bank accounts, and a 91% payroll tax for everyone making under 100k.
mrmoshpotato
@Mai naem mobile:
Only since the night of November 8, 2016.
8 man shell
Taxes on essential products, like gasoline, are incredibly regressive so this is a very, very bad idea.
Now is a good time to add a steeply progressive tax on assets starting at $1M. Does it have any chance of all at passing? No, of course not. But neither does the gas tax.
Gvg
@Mai naem mobile: yes for months now. I have said so repeatedly. Don’t want to be a downer but it’s actually kind of scary.
Seanly
@rikyrah: OMFG, that’s terrible AND hilarious.
Gvg
@NotMax: that means the gas the stores bought back before crisis hit is still in the stores tanks. Gas stations are not the same people as the producers. They are mostly franchisees, and what they need to sell the gas for is pretty much set by what they pay plus their costs including wages divided by the number of gallons. Prices change each time they empty a tank and buy a new load. Seriously, if you watch, you can see them changing the sign right after the tanker leaves, many times. If the price hasn’t changed, that means they haven’t sold hardly any. I could never have imagined this situation. It’s kind of unreal from an economic standpoint.
Seanly
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
If Biden wins, I don’t want to see any comity bullshit. No Republicans of any stripe in any Senate-confirmed positions. Enough playing nice. We got 8 years of Obama and all his playing nice & Republican FBI director got him was Trump and a long list of unfilled judge positions.
Bupalos
@Mai naem mobile: the oil economy needs to die. In Ohio especially it’s more destructive than it is productive.
Just spilling toxic waste everywhere would create more jobs too.
The Lodger
@JPL: Probably not good news for Scotland or Norway either.
John Revolta
@Mai naem mobile: I do worry about that a bit but TBH it’s pretty far down the list. I worry a lot more about if the opposite happens.
Fair Economist
@8 man shell:
Tax the gas, and backfill the regressive aspects with a UBI (call it an expansion of Earned Income Tax Credit to avoid media freakout.)
AnotherBruce
@Mai naem mobile: If he wrecks things. I think it would be legitamite to put him in jail. I think he will be warned. But who knows. He is such a bastard, but I think he knows that he’s in for a rough landing if he loses this election.
Duane
@Croaker: David Anderson recently ended a post with this sentence: Administrative friction will cause social burn. I though about this. After I thought about it I declared war on David Anderson.//
Jinchi
Absolutely. I expect he’ll be rallying the deadenders to second amendment solutions at the very least, but as awful as I know he’ll be, I’m also certain that his reaction will be even worse than I can imagine.
The real question is whether his enablers will keep supporting him or if they’ll flee like rats from a sinking ship.
Mai naem mobile
@Bupalos: I don’t disagree that the oil industry needs to die etc. The only point I was making is it’s a crappy time for it to crap out. There aren’t going to be any jobs out there for these folks so the local governments are going to be squeezed even more with less revenue and increased demand for services. The more I see the more I think this is going to be one ugly recession. The chances of a recession were high anyway but everything Trumpov has done during his time in office is going to exacerbate the recession.
rikyrah
@Ruckus:
Airplanes idle. Anything that uses gas….has gone silent. Not just in America, but worldwide?
Salty Sam
I’d be interested in Adam’s take on what sort of sabotage is possible? I’d imagine there are “guardrails” built in, but this maladministration has successfully jumped every other failsafe we have. I worry about this too…
Jinchi
Tennessee and South Carolina have also decided to reopen for business. Republican governors are playing a really dangerous game here. Kemp in Georgia is particularly nuts.
Jesus man, this is what you’re thinking of reopening first? Why not just start by reopening all the cruise lines?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Is this normal?
Rupar’s text is far too generous, he’s babbling and wheezing
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jinchi: as people talk about re-opening, partial re-openings, in terms of retail businesses, places that people have to physically walk in and out of, I can’t think of what kinds would be able to open– shoe stores? Best Buy? Car dealerships?– I just assumed gyms would be the last to open. Massage therapists weren’t even on my radar
ETA: I think I’d be more comfortable in a restaurant with spaced tables than a gym
Jinchi
I read recently that dairy farmers were dumping milk because they couldn’t get all of it to market before it spoiled. Let’s hope the people looking for a place to store their excess oil (worth negative $37/barrel) don’t get any ideas.
Phylllis
@Jinchi: Tennessee and South Carolina have also decided to reopen for business.
Yes, SC Governor
Deputy DawgMcMaster is reopening most retail establishments, but not salons, gyms, etc. yet. While keeping the ‘only home or work unless it’s essential’ order in place. Makes perfect sense.Jinchi
@Phylllis: I think this plays out one of two ways.
Either nobody is crazy enough to venture out to the gyms, barber shops, nail salons and the rest (because that would clearly be crazy right now) , and Kemp doesn’t even get a fiscal sugar high for his idiocy. Or Georgia sees a huge spike in coronavirus infections in the next 10 days.
Either way, it will probably be a pretty big incentive for states with sane governors to stay closed beyond May 1st.
NobodySpecial
What few businesses are open now frequently get slammed, simply because there’s no where else for people to go. Which, of course, makes things worse. I can tell you at the essential business I work at, customer counts are up ~20%, simply because many of the places where they could get things besides us aren’t open.
Also, most people suck at quarantining.
Feathers
@Seanly: One thing that needs to happen is going through all of the paperwork those judges filed, security clearances, etc. and prosecuting for any false statements. Like we used to. Same for all of the Trump folks.
Another Scott
@Jinchi:
The DoD just today extended travel bans (except for “mission essential travel”) through June 30.
Those expecting and demanding things to return to quasi-normal in early May are dreaming.
Even July is probably optimistic… :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
raven
@NobodySpecial: Lowes and Home Depot are packed here.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Another Scott: When the kid told us she would be seeing anybody in the family for a while last month, since she’s a nurse, I told a friend that I didn’t expect to see her for Mother’s Day, Father’s Day and her and her mom’s b-day(they’re 5 days apart) in late August was doubtful.
Another Scott
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Fingers crossed for her, and your family.
:-(
At least she’s not in Brazil…
Grrr…
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I now just read Tom Nichol’s live tweet of the pressers. It’s generally super funny and instead of having a rage induced shouting rant, you laugh, often.
Today’s presser was just another fuck up, but all the women reporters have been bringing the pain. The male reporters have not yet stepped up other than folks like Jim Acosta.
I’m not sure what access they can protect now considering that it’s probably quite reasonable to assume that republicans are much more exposed to the virus than democrats. They probably are spreading it amongst themselves like crazy. They should just go full boar and just burn that fucker down.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Okay this is kind of funny, let the meme the of Lindas be born (apologies to any real life Lindas, but I love that labored rhyme)
PJ
@Gvg: My understanding is that most gas stations make a penny or two per gallon of gas – the real money is in the convenience store attached.
Another Scott
In other news, Nancy LeTourneau at WaMo:
The Steele Dossier (page 8):
(Emphasis added.)
Cui bono?
Follow the money.
Rep. Adam Schiff told everyone at the hearings and the impeachment trial that he was going to put his personal interests above those of the United States….
Grrr…
Cheers,
Scott.
J R in WV
@Miss Bianca:
Cotopaxi? That’s where you turn right up the mountain to go to my friends’ camp. They live in Pueblo. I’ve stayed up at their camp several times, pretty rough. But we love it.
No matter how scarce or remote a place, someone here on Balloon Juice has been there and done that. So glad to have Cotopaxi in common with you!!
chopper
keep going (shakes fist) KEEP GOING
Ascap_scab
As for the May contract price crash, I’d be willing to bet that someone got WAY wrong on a bunch of trades, probably a huge hedge fund or an ETF. Whoever that is, I’d also bet that there is Deutchbank money and Putin direction behind it. We should find out who this was in the next day or so.
As for pump prices in Wisconsin, the Joliet (IL) refineries have no place to put finished product. St. Louis has their own refineries, as does Indiana, so it can’t go east or south. Iowa and Minnesota have many pipelines bringing finished product up from Oklahoma and Texas, so Joliet can’t go there either. Which leaves north to Wisconsin.
The spot rack prices are so low, that my company sent six drivers to Junction City, WI today to bring back gas for our stores. That’s going to continue until prices even out. We weren’t the only ones, there were trucks from IA, MO, and ND all in line to take product.
If the rack price is 20 to 30 cents per gallon, and we can sell it for $1.30 to $1.50 per gallon at our stores in Minnesota, and if each truck holds 8000 gallons, that’s a profit of $8000+ per truck. Back out driver costs, fuel costs, tires, maintenance, insurance and overhead, and that still leaves a profit of $7,250 per load.
For our company, what’s not to love?
Ruckus
Just got off the phone with my friend up in northern CA.
Her dad died 4 days ago from the virus. He got it in the care facility that he lived in, he was 93. He was a WWII vet and the VA took care of him over his last few days. I have met him and had holiday dinners with my friend and her dad a few times. So this is now a one degree of separation pandemic to me. I’d imagine that can be said about a number of us.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Mai naem mobile: He’s damaging the county already. The main thing that is saving us is Trump sucks at even sucking.
Somewhere in the Marlogo resort is a boot is still full of urine with instruction on heel.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Another Scott: Before “Trading Places” I didn’t know you could sell stuff before you’d bought it. The crazy stuff these brokers think of make a buck.
I also liked Eddie Murphy’s speech about why pork belly futures were going to be such and such. All I remember about that speech is somehow he tied it to GI Joe’s and lord knows what else. Made about as much sense as anything the financial reporters say.
Art
Time to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. You could pay for the handling with a $.50 gas tax. Probably wise to expand reserve capacity. As I understand it it could be doubled at reasonable rates and fairly quickly.
It isn’t as if the stuff goes bad with time. Large reserves ready to pump go a long way in mitigating the majority of the harm to consumers of those fossil fuels as they are becoming both obsolete and dearer to produce. The greatest harm comes from the whipsawing and flailing of prices and availability as they become uncoupled. The unpredictability on both sides causes chaos and unpredictability that is massively wasteful, inefficient, and potentially deadly.
NotMax
@Omnes Omnibus
$3.69 to $3.99 here, depending on the station.