The US Department of Labor just released the new claims for unemployment insurance filed last week. The number is worse than expected 5 million new claims:
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
Initial claims were 6,606,000 for the week ending 4/4 (-261,000).
Insured unemployment was 7,455,000 for the week ending 3/28 (+4,396,000).https://t.co/ys7Eg5LKAW
— US Labor Department (@USDOL) April 9, 2020
Since the start of the economic coma, close to 15 million people have filed for unemployment. There are probably millions more who are either filing this week for the first time or are still trying to file as antiquated and underfunded systems are crashing.
One of the major concerns for folks who have been laid off is their health insurance:
New Deal democrat
It’s very likely that when the April employment report comes out, it will show an unemployment rate over 10%, and that we have lost every single job that was created in the past 5 years – on the order of 10,000,000 or more.
Any econometric model you can find will generate an election forecast that the incumbent President will lose, and probably badly, if this persists for any period of time. In other words, if the public thinks this is a short term sacrifice, that wasn’t his fault, and we will bounce back quickly, he won’t get blamed. But the longer the downturn drags on, the more he will be blamed, and will suffer badly as a result.
If the economy isn’t bouncing back by Fourth of July – and it is almost certain that it won’t be – unless there is utterly massive and successful vote suppression, he is doomed.
ThresherK
@New Deal democrat: I’m not familiar with you via nym, but the nym gets a thumbs-up. As does your post.
tybee
@New Deal democrat:
words to cheer my cold black heart
WereBear
I just worry about a Hitler in the Bunker scenario.
As bad as the Nazis were, when Hitler told them to destroy the country, they wouldn’t do it.
With this bunch…
OzarkHillbilly
@WereBear:
A Hitler in the Bunker scenario is my fantasy. But only if he only wounds himself.
TS (the original)
So why are the markets rising? Dead cat bounce? or the Fed printing money/buying junk bonds?
SFAW
@New Deal democrat:
Thank FSM there’s no chance of THAT happening. Nor of medical assistance from the USG being limited to deep-red areas.
PST
@TS (the original): The bad news was anticipated, and in some respects is just a little bit less bad than investors thought it would be, like NYC perhaps seeing fewer cases.
Jeffro
@New Deal democrat: Wait…what if we (except for ‘those who have lost a family member or friend’) promise to forget about the ‘Invisible Enemy’ very quickly, so that our economy will BOOM! ?
(yes, the Ill Douche really did tweet all that nonsense yesterday. He is going to lose SO BADLY)
Jeffro
I believe that ship has already sailed…he’s underwater in the polls and is already (rightly) getting blamed for the crappy Fed response.
Everyone knows that Covid-19 isn’t going away quickly, either.
Capri
In Indiana right now nobody can lose their housing due to nonpayment of rent or mortgage. It would be nice if somehow the same would go for health insurance – that employees had to remain on their employer’s policies until the pandemic is over. Otherwise there are going to be millions upon millions losing their employee-based coverage at the same time.
SFAW
@Jeffro:
Edited to take the RWMFs out of the equation.
Another Scott
@TS (the original): Back in olden days, the stock market indices were supposed to be a leading indicator. After all, if you could get, say, 2% interest on a bond with no risk in 6 months, then the stock market should earn more than that given the risk.
So, the market going up meant that people thought that in 6-9 months, things would be better (or at least stock prices would be higher).
Now, given all the program trading, pump-and-dump stuff that Donnie’s minions seem to be doing, etc., who knows. The Fed is trying to save the world economy, the Democrats are trying to save people’s incomes and jobs, and Moscow Mitch and Donnie’s minions are trying to figure out how to kill off Democratic voters while saving enough Teabaggers so that they can retain power in January.
Grrr…
But remember – market timing never works for the vast majority of people. Be in the stock market for the long haul in low-fee index funds and leave it alone. Dollar Cost Averaging, baby!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Kelly
Our local timber baron says his order book is empty. The market for construction plywood and lumber has collapsed. He’ll continue to build inventory for a week or two then shut down. It’s the same across the industry. Shut down will idle around 60,000 people or 3% of Oregon workers.
Duane
@Kelly: That’s going to happen to many of the essential businesses. No demand for the supply. Ten percent unemployment will look like good times.