My deep dive into how #COVID19 turned from bat virus into pandemic, thanks to two gene tweaks.
– It's 10x 'stickier' than SARS
– It has a furin trigger, the same as Bird Flu
– We really should have seen it comingProud of this piecehttps://t.co/46ZOqWkGjn
— Liam Mannix (@liammannix) March 29, 2020
There’s a big asterisk on these quickie tests:
“They can only detect the coronavirus in people who have had the infection for several days.”Seems coverage need to note that right at the top. https://t.co/WmUo9puMin
— Eric Umansky (@ericuman) March 31, 2020
A rough idea of where the time goes in a virus test (each step's time may vary from lab-to-lab). pic.twitter.com/HxCFXkj9Bm
— ??? ? ??????, ??? ?????????? (@MackayIM) April 1, 2020
Open Source COVID19 Medical Supplies is a rapidly growing Facebook group that is crowdsourcing solutions to address the diminishing stock of medical equipment around the world. https://t.co/ty9H43pKga
— NYT Science (@NYTScience) April 1, 2020
Using a symptom tracker app, scientists found that almost 60 percent of patients who were subsequently confirmed as positive for #COVID19 had lost their sense of smell and taste. https://t.co/LXscuJ4Mhz
— Tech2 (@tech2eets) April 1, 2020
Does Covid-19 really cause a loss of smell and taste? How does this pandemic end? How fast can coronavirus mutate? We answered these questions and more about coronavirus. https://t.co/rRMZYNxSXO
— MIT Technology Review (@techreview) April 1, 2020
Experts have said comprehensive testing is key to controlling coronavirus, and creating a more accurate picture of the spread of Covid-19. This island-nation of 360,000 is doing just that. https://t.co/dU4qHEpKrA
— CNN (@CNN) April 1, 2020
New #COVID19 CFR modelling paper just lobbed at @TheLancet
?? Mean duration sx onset to death: 17.8d (16.9-19.2)
?? CFR mainland China 3.67%; after adjusting for demography/other factors 1.38%
?? Marked age gradient: CFR 0.32% in <60y, 6.4% >60y, 13.4% 80+
?? China IFR 0.66% pic.twitter.com/Tr3gXhyq2m— Amy Coopes (@coopesdetat) March 31, 2020
A responsible review of the mathematical models being applied to the pandemic. “Mathematics of life and death: How disease models shape national shutdowns and other pandemic policies” https://t.co/EbzlvOXD8w
— Steven Strogatz (@stevenstrogatz) March 30, 2020
More than 2400 #SARSCoV2 viruses have been fully sequenced & genetic analysis posted @GISAID
They divide into 3 clades + an "other" group.
Here, @trvrb explains why the various types do NOT have clinical significance & so far not immune syst response diffs. https://t.co/KkU2mXHbg4— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 31, 2020
PSA ??
Viruses use our cells to make themselves. They are literally made up of the same stuff as we are.
If you shove steam or ethanol or magic unicorn acid up your nose to kill the virus, you're probably killing off your *own*cells as well.
Don't kill off your own cells.— ??? ? ??????, ??? ?????????? (@MackayIM) March 30, 2020
OzarkHillbilly
Someday, somebody will do a study adding up all the excess deaths during this time of pandemic. We will learn, just as we did with Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, that the actual death toll is maybe 3 or 4 times the Covid death toll.
Amir Khalid
The Movement Control Order here is affecting the global supply of medical gloves. Malaysia is the world’s leading source of these gloves, and manufacturers are seeking Government permission to operate with their full workforce, rather than 50% as allowed by the MCO, to provide for the global need.
Cermet
Great article on the possible source and what mutation occured to make this virus so infectious. Keep up the excellent and informative thread.
WereBear
@Amir Khalid: This crisis is really showing how interconnected we have become.
And, interdependent.
msb
Good news from little Denmark: the lockdown appears to be working: rate of doubling of deaths has slowed by 3 days (from 2 to 5). Lockdown will continue at least through Easter, and testing is still insufficient if you measure against Iceland or South Korea.
@ OzarkHillbilly
I’m sure you’re right; one will have to examine all the excess mortality.
OzarkHillbilly
Misery’s data finally gets an “A” grade from the Covid Tracking Project. Looking at the data history, the recent change is obvious.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@WereBear:
Your average Appalachian camo-clad, assault rifle-toting, lard-assed face mullet will take that as meaning that international travel, global trade and interconnectivity are bad things, and will foresee a return to woodie station wagons annually trekking to See Rock City and Ruby Falls for a fuckton of Americana; a bunch of useless kitsch sold to you by drawling fat rednecks puffing cheap cigars while wearing dirty shirts.
Jeremiah Wright was absolutely on the money when he said “god damn America”. I genuinely fucking hate this country these days.
debbie
The scariest sentence at the moment: “How fast can coronavirus mutate?”
debbie
Ohio got itself declared a federal disaster area yesterday, then last night, ODH (uncoincidently, of course) decided to allow golf courses to open. ?
debbie
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
I’m hoping their towers of toilet paper will tumble onto their heads and suffocate them. It would only be karmic justice.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@debbie:
As their businesses fail and their creditors are haranging them, some targeted PSAs on the essential use of doing self harm from just one piece of their firearm hoards (which can be then cleaned off and passed along to one’s survivors) might be fun.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
Detailed description of a milder case of the virus. (She didn’t — quite — end up going to the hospital.)
People of My Generation — Beware The Corona Virus Like The Plague!
WereBear
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: This situation is approaching a Bond Villain level of targeting.
Utterly callous and ideologically cement-headed White House has no excuse for NOT doing it even close to right. It’s a 97 page manual! The right people were in place! But asking them to stay on would mean “the liberals were right.”
Cultishly compelled to double down on their Death Cult, they told Fox News-loving followers to defy science and common sense. And while today’s popular FNYT op-ed claims her mother in Florida is now listening to sense — the woman hasn’t turned away from Fox News! She’s just staying in a little more… unless she wants an ice cream sundae.
I haven’t given up on the country. But I have given up on bigotry. People who listen to Fox News voluntarily do so because they are BIGOTS. That is truly the enemy trying to kill us all. They are responsible for the rise in hate crimes, because they have 24/7 brainwashing at their disposal, and they use it like a drug
Red State behaviors are going to double the damage done.
WereBear
@debbie: All unhinged movements turn into death cults, but I never thought I would see it on such an enormous scale.
debbie
@WereBear:
At least Jim Jones was more gifted, oratorically speaking. //
What are you doing about the shortage of plaquenil? I’m thinking about cutting my dosage a bit so it lasts longer. NPR just reported about a woman who ordered a refill and was told there would be a one-month backorder.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@WereBear:
Mississippi, Florida and Tennessee look to become giant morgues.
WereBear
I am thanking my lucky stars my autoimmune condition changed a bit over a year ago to a non-prescription treatment plan.
Last year’s horrible post-holiday flare made me feel I was traveling down the wrong road. I tapered off steroids, adopted a ruthless elimination diet, and made the most of a job change that lowered my stress.
My only other alternatives were to move into the immuno-suppressive drugs. Which scared me as much as my illness. It has taken all this time for symptoms to really clear, but I can’t argue with the results.
My heart goes out to those endangered, again, by this stupid travesty of a national leader. No one should be rushing out and getting this one drug when it’s got some serious dosing constraints, it’s part of a complex protocol, and other people need it too.
It gets me all Nuremberg Trials, I swear.
WereBear
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Between fundamentalist religion, years of brainwashing, and governors who slavishly follow his lead, I’m afraid so.
The latest excuse, that it’s a blue state problem, is an obvious ploy as blue state cases dominate the news. We know it’s because blue states are economic powerhouses with busy airports and large cities and population density.
They think it’s blue state cooties! But their sad turn is coming.
debbie
@WereBear:
Good for you! I stopped taking it about a year ago because I was feeling fine, but it only took a couple weeks to pick it up again.
I’m also worried about azithromycin becoming yet another useless antibiotic.
WereBear
@debbie:
YES, because it has been a staple for Mr WereBear’s tendency toward pneumonia, and he has a chronic illness to such an extent he’s been on disability for years. Assholes who endanger him and those like him are on my shitlist FOREVAH.
Since this barely started he hasn’t left the house — at my insistence. This began when the news was just a trickle, but now he’s all “you were right.”
Which is something rare and treasured in any partnership :)
Haroldo
Rochester, NY man lies about Covid-19 status to see newborn
The selfishness of such folks is stunning.
Mousebumples
@debbie:
I’ve been listening to various podcasts recently, and one of them (i think This Week In Virology…?) suggested that there is no evolutionary push for the virus to mutate . It’s already super infective/transmissable and fairly deadly – which is typically how evolution would want to adapt things . Here’s hoping that , no matter how unlikely, something evolves to make the virus less dangerous. ?
evodevo
” Viruses use our cells to make themselves. They are literally made up of the same stuff as we are ”
Well, actually, OUR cells are a lot more vulnerable to disinfectants, chemicals, bleach, whatever these idiots are trying to kill the virus in their nose/throat with…because OUR cells are “alive”, while virus particles are not “living” in the usual sense. They are DNA/RNA inside a protein coat and relatively inert. Some viruses also have a piece of the host’s cell membrane wrapped around the outside to disguise themselves. Unless the chemical can denature protein, or dissolve a bi-lipid eukaryote membrane, it won’t affect them at all. AND anything that will do that will kill living cells first.
Three-nineteen
The Eric Umansky tweet is misleading. The two minute test Axios is reporting on tests your blood for antibodies to the coronavirus. It takes the body a few days to generate antibodies once exposed to the virus. Other quickie tests detect the coronavirus itself by testing your snot. Those tests are the ones where they stick a swab up your nose. Both of these tests are important, and doctors know what they are doing and can tell you which test they are using on you and why.
Snot test – tells you whether you have the virus RIGHT NOW and are probably infectious
Blood test – tells you whether you were exposed to the virus IN THE PAST. You could 1) have been exposed but then were asymptomatic, 2) have symptoms right now, or 3) had symptoms before and couldn’t get tested then, and now you don’t have symptoms. You could still be infectious depending on when you were exposed, but the blood test won’t tell you that.
chopper
@debbie:
like all RNA viruses it has a high rate of random mutations, sure, but it has a much larger genome than, say, the flu. so each random mutation has a much lower chance of changing some quality like virulence. so far it seems pretty stable, which is at least a bit of good news in all this garbage.
Oklahomo
Oklahoma is heading for a disaster. Neither the state nor the majority of people are taking it serious enough.
My last shopping trip for my folks was horrifying: people not maintaining social distance, people coughing into their hands and then examining items on the shelves.
My stepfather is a 1.5 lung cancer survivor — his doctor gave the rest of the family face masks and told him to stay out of public places and for us to wear masks and gloves in public since he’s so vulnerable.
There were at most 6 other people wearing any kind of protection. Or wiping carts. Only a few employees were wearing protection of any kind.
And for all the talk of a slower spread in the rural areas, people forget that the Walmart Supercenters drove most small stores under, so people drive 50 to 100 miles to get groceries. In the store I was in, the sign was posted that said 60 people only. There were five or six times that many.
It’s going to be horrible in a lot of poor rural areas because of all the culture war bullshit in people’s heads.
lol chikinburd
Wait we’re now to understand that there will be magical unicorn acid
I WANT THE MAGICAL UNICORN ACID
I DON’T CARE WHAT IT DOES TO THE VIRUS
joel hanes
@debbie:
The scariest sentence at the moment: “How fast can coronavirus mutate?”
Everything I’ve seen says it’s not currently mutating very fast, and that none of the strains seem to be significantly more infectious or fatal than others.
IIRC, the other SARS coronavirus didn’t evolve very fast either, compared to DNA-based viruses or other RNA viruses with smaller genomes.
I am not a geneticist or microbiologist.