While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4…
Washington State’s coronavirus figures have continued to grow steadily, but not as fast as other states’. The death toll has been doubling about every eight days in Washington, compared with every two or three days in New York, Michigan, New Jersey and Louisiana.
Washington State shut down hard and shut down fast compared to the rest of the country. This is what success looks like right now. The death rate is still increasing, the infection rate is still increasing, but the rates of increases are slower than the rest of the country. This is success on the second derivative.
As I mentioned in my first post this morning, most of the people who are are hospitalized this morning were infected at least two weeks ago. Washington State has been able to shrink the number of people who were exposed and infected two weeks ago with aggressive and early public health measures that were several doubling cycles ahead of many regions shutting down.
Washington State is what success could look like for the next month or two, and it is still going to be rough.