UPDATE
NEW: At 7 am Eastern Mnuchin, on behalf of Trump, pulled out of the agreement they had reached at 4 am to provide relief for Americans impacted by the Coronavirus. The package was the right thing.
He now wants more things Pelosi won’t agree to. I don’t know what they are.
— Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 13, 2020
ORIGINAL POST
Last night, Speaker Pelosi’s office acknowledged that they were 95% of the way to a short term emergency response deal with the White House. The Senate has implicitly made clear that they will vote for whatever Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Mnunchin can agree upon.
Language has yet to be released. Lots of federal money will be flowing to states via a Medicaid payment bump.
The fastest way for Congress to help states responding to #COVID19 is to increase the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP), which will provide immediate Medicaid funds to confront the #CoronavirusPandemic across our country https://t.co/HyT5RXAhvl
— Bill Frist, M.D. (@bfrist) March 12, 2020
FMAP is what the federal government pays for Medicaid. The ACA Medicaid Expansion population gets a flat FMAP of 90%. Most of the rest of Medicaid gets an FMAP that varies by state. Poorer states have a bigger FMAP so for every dollar Mississippi spends on Medicaid, the federal government will spend three. However ever dollar that Massachusetts spends on Medicaid, the feds will only match it with one additional dollar. An FMAP bump of eight points will increase the multiplier effect of each state dollar.
An FMAP bump is an action that will need minimal administrative plumbing and no new rule making. If an FMAP bump is signed into law this week, states can book the expected increase of federal revenue on Monday morning by the second cup of coffee. I’ve been scarred by the Great Recession and automatic or quasi-automatic very fast to implement counter-cyclical programs are very attractive to me. In December 2018, I was writing about the maintenance of effort requirements of the Center for American Progress healthcare plan and that thought was front of mind:
From a policy angle, I am scarred by the 2008-2010 Great Recession. I want as many automatic stabilizers that are not tied to balance budget requirements as possible. One of the big chunks of the stimulus bill was an enhanced federal Medicaid payment rate which allowed states to not cut budgets as deeply as they normally would have. We don’t want 50 Mini-Hoovers squeezing out Medicaid.
And in 2016:
8) Issue is still the 50 mini-Hoover problem in serious economic downturns.. no idea how to fix that without federalization of funding
— David Anderson (@bjdickmayhew) August 14, 2016
The US Federal Government has an unmatched ability to absorb risk. It can eat risk that would force any other entity to vomit without even getting heart burn. The FMAP bump that is likely to be in the first emergency response bill is just one of the easiest ways for the Feds to take on systemic risk that would otherwise cripple state budgets.
Cheryl Rofer
Thanks, Dave! I’ve been seeing tweets about this and didn’t know what to make of it.
What is the Senate signal that it will pass? Isn’t it more important to McConnell to make Pelosi look bad?
NotMax
How much will (get ready, here it comes) trickle down to the people in immediate need versus how much diverted to a state’s general fund coffers?
And yes, it’s a red state vs. blue state situation – a priori leveling of the playing field legislatively is paramount.
David Anderson
The Senate signal is that they aren’t at the table but are allowing SecTreas to be their proxy.
David Anderson
@NotMax: BOTH–
It is going to be effectively backfilling state budgets that are about to see a huge revenue crash so that other state services can be maintained.
The funds will be used to pay clinical staff their salaries.
Those staff would have been working anyways in a pandemic, so direct new flows through the salary channel is not huge. BUt the big thing is that state budgets won’t collapse (as quickly) which has significant multiplier effects at zero lower bound.
artem1s
Well perhaps we can ultimately thank COVID-19 for putting another stake thru the heart of the idea that the Fed should issue block grants for medicaid and medicare.
artem1s
@Cheryl Rofer:
Maybe this is one issue Moscow Mitch can’t control the Senate vote on. He can’t force R-Senators to vote no, so he’s already releasing them to vote however they want. And they want this out of Dolt’s hands
Ken
@artem1s: That, or McConnell rightly suspects that if the Senate blocks this, he personally risks being set upon by an angry mob. At his next family reunion.
Barbara
McConnell is as morally corrupt as Trump but he is not such a transparent charlatan. He knows that the Senate hangs in the balance. That’s almost certainly why he postponed the break — the prospect of McSalley and Collins returning to their older than average states and explaining how the Senate was waiting to see what happened was probably a big fat nonstarter. I mean, imagine the scenario. Unlike their usual habit, they will curtail their own town halls and any other public events like visiting nursing homes, but when asked by news reporters what Congress as a whole is doing, they will have to say meep meep.
WereBear
The only way out of this without an Alice’s Restaurant style massacree is to do it the liberal way.
Their tears. Let me get a bucket.
dmsilev
Tax cuts for rich people? A demand that RBG be forcibly injected with the virus? A signed attestation by Obama admitting responsibility for the virus?
Edmund Dantes
Of course he did.
classic trump negotiating style.
agree than walk away from your own agreement.
god I hate him.
Ken
@dmsilev: I’m guessing bailouts for the luxury hotel and golf course industries. Maybe also high-end fashion, and whatever it is that Don Jr. pretends to do.
germy
A coronavirus story
Bruce K
Way back in the winter, when I suggested that either the GOP has to die or America will die, I thought I was speaking metaphorically, not literally.
Josie
Possibly something to help out his buddies in the oil and gas bidness?
NotMax
@dmsilev
Shortest version: No money for “the coloreds.”
oldster
Nancy’s got a strong hand here. She’ll play it as well as it can be played.
Her only weakness is that she is a sane human with a moral compass playing against psychopathic greed-heads who love to make people die.
But she’ll drive a hard bargain, bless her.
New Deal democrat
@Edmund Dantes:
Exactly. I am completely not shocked that Trump would apparently agree to something and then renege, especially when there are hostages (American lives) to take until he gets a better deal.
I hope Pelosi ignores him and the House passes their package, dumps it on his and McConnell’s lap, and makes them decide whether to shoot hostages or not.
MattF
The UPDATE is pure Trump, ‘Art of The Deal’.
Zinsky
Let me guess – more tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations?? These people like Mnuchin (can’t he buy another vowel for his name?) are certifiable vermin. They also have no understanding of economics or human behavior. They are so screwed up in the head that they think all human behavior is predicated on the behavior’s tax consequences. They also think U.S. markets are “free and perfect”. These ideas couldn’t be more wrong.
This will be the second time in 20 years that the U.S. government has had to bail out the glorious “free market”. Tell me again about how wonderful capitalism is…….
NotMax
Mandatory signing of loyalty oaths? 6 Hail Ivankas recited before a witness before getting tested?
A Ghost to Most
There is still the possibility that t has the virus. I take cheer at that.
germy
PenAndKey
As others have said, this is classic Trump. He will agree to a deal, only to back out at the last second after the thinks the other side has committed and can’t afford to go back to the table. He’s hostage taking a pandemic, plain and simple, and he’s obviously gaming this out not as a pandemic but as an election strategy.
The only way the country gets any federal help is if Pelosi passes the House package and forces McConnell to do the same with a veto proof majority. How that games out I don’t know, and i have no faith McConnell or the Senate GOP will ever feel the pressure to agree, but right now we have no legitimate Executive Branch negotiator at the table.
gvg
I think this is the real reason nothing is being done in Government since the tax deal. Trump doesn’t negotiate and then keep his word. He always spoils it by demanding more including blowing up deals the Republicans wanted and voted for and have to take heat for. McConnel has been protecting the republican Senators from Trump screwing them. And also screwing Democrats of course.
There is rarely any point to negotiating with Trump, he just doesn’t understand the value of keeping promises. He’s blown his own reputation. Of course anyone who was paying attention already knew this, but the GOP and their voters evidently couldn’t see it before.
PenAndKey
Apparently his big sticking point is his idiotic year-long payroll tax cut idea that he explicitly stated he wants to extend past the election. Shocker. Like germy said, he said the quiet part out loud.
germy
@PenAndKey: and then if the Democrat wins, payroll tax goes back up, and trump & cronies crow “See? The democrat party raise yur taxes!”
MattF
@gvg: One could argue that, in the past, Trump was screwing the coloreds and the libtards with his ‘negotiating’ style. Now, though, it’s his base.
TS (the original)
@PenAndKey:
Why do any of them work for him. Everyone negotiates for trump because he now refuses to even speak to a democrat – and then trump pulls the plug. Mnuchin, for once, worked hard at this. He should resign, but none of them do – they wait to be fired.
Scout211
This was likely already posted on another thread but I just saw this article on NBC.com.:
“Trump Condemns CDC for Lack of Coronavirus Testing: Blames Obama”
Trump is really taking this seriously! He is really mad now! Really! //
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
FYI – the Edmund Dantes above ain’t me.
OzarkHillbilly
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: I knew that when I saw the reference to god. ;-)
Aleta
What Kushner fed the Post
Kushner on the job (Politico)
PenAndKey
Can you imagine the “Democrats won’t negotiate!” foghorn announcements on Fox if Obama refused to negotiate directly with republicans? I can, because they would, but it still floors me that they’re so brazen about their hypocrisy in the last couple years. In a sane administration the President refusing to meet with the leader of the House, no matter who they were, for something like this would be enough to make the president resign in disgrace or face impeachment.
Anya
@Aleta: I’ve posed this as a question yesterday on twitter but I think we’ve officially reached the hell scape phase.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I just looked at his blame-Obama tweets. Almost no random capitalization, mostly correct syntax, one exclamation point … those aren’t him.
laura
Bill freaking Frist!?! I am not reassured.
What happens when a cascade of job losses leads to a cascade of homelessness on top of a cascade of potentially unmanageable illness and death? It’ll be totally orderly won’t it -because they’ll still have the payroll tax cut for the job they no longer had.
germy
Anya
@PenAndKey: yet he sat in the Oval Office with a straight face (as much as his adoral filed brain can allow) and told the nation to get over partisanship.
Ken
Pelosi could tie the payroll tax cut to the declaration of emergency. It starts when the emergency is declared and ends when it is lifted.
Oh, and it may not be lifted between October 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. Got to remember we’re dealing with a four-year-old mind that looks for any loophole.
WereBear
@germy: While this is totally believable, what is the source? Oh, yeah, one of those gutless wonders. Never mind :)
TaMara (HFG)
I suspect, despite the hiccup in negotiations, Nancy will hand Trump his balls by end of the day.
New Deal democrat
Two further points:
1. The S&P has given back about 1/3 to 1/2 of its opening gains. Probably because traders became aware of the implications of Trump’s reneging on the deal.
2. The template here is last year’s negotiations to end the government shutdown. Further, Pelosi, McConnell, and Mnuchin are almost certainly all *aware* that this is the template, so you have to take that into account in how they are negotiating. If everyone expected Trump to renege, then (1) McConnell would do what he did last year, walk away until Trump himself was clearly committed; and (2) Pelosi would keep some concessions “in her back pocket” to be used in response to an expected reneging by Trump. It is even possible that Mnuchin agreed to a “soft” deal as well, from his point of view, knowing that his boss would renege. We have seen Trump fold, but only after howls from his own side, as with last year’s impasse and also kids in cages.
germy
@WereBear: The person who tweeted it calls himself Strategist from Obama Era | Policy Analyst | Intel, Political Econ, Nat Sec Portfolio | Protecting Anonymity | Inquiries: [email protected]
I see he deleted the tweet.
Maybe I shouldn’t have posted it here. But it’s certainly believable, knowing what we know about trumpf.
Kattails
@germy: I just got a “This tweet is unavailable” when I tried it, but… wowzers. On one level, of course, slanderous. On another level, shoe fits like it was bespoke, as the Brits like to say.
Ken
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I asked a few days ago what happens when narcissists have their noses rubbed hard in reality. I found the narcopath.info site.
According to that, being forced to confront their failures can result in “narcissistic collapse”. It can manifest as a full breakdown and withdrawal from life. However if they can find enough people to tell them they’re really doing great (and Trump has surrounded himself with such people, who unfortunately are the ones who would have to invoke the 25th) they might come back after “hibernating”.
They don’t say anything about the simultaneous effect of a notorious germophobe finding he’s been repeatedly exposed to sick people. I can’t imagine it would help.
WereBear
@Kattails: Agreed. And the way he’s been shaking hands at rallies, I’d bet my ridiculously small 401k on it.
germy
WereBear
@Ken: I would say his behavior during the speech would qualify. And dementia patients are easily overwhelmed.
So many reasons he shouldn’t be in charge, and yet, here we are.
NotMax
@germy
If only it wasn’t FOX policy to leave the straitjackets in the green room….
germy
@NotMax: They seem to have a fully stocked bar in their green room, if Kudlow is any indication
Kudlow: Payroll tax is a ‘bold move’ from bold president
Larry Kudlow discusses benefits of the payroll tax cut and the economic stimulus package amid the coronavirus outbreak
Zinsky
@PenAndKey: I sure hope the Democrats don’t let these rat bastards cut payroll taxes. You know what they mean when they say “payroll taxes”, don’t you? They are talking about Social Security and Medicare!
Let me be clear – They are proposing to underfund both Social Security and Medicare to weaken them further.
I have a better idea – cap executive and board member compensation for any corporation with over 100 employees at $500K per year and use every penny that would have gone to executive compensation, bonuses and equity awards to be paid to every American. Also, jail the executives of any company caught gouging or raising prices during this crisis. It’s time to bodyslam these so-called capitalists who want socialism for the wealthy and capitalism for the rich!
p.a.
@New Deal democrat: Are you NDD from bonddad? Enjoy your work if so.
MattF
@germy: Falwell is deeply creepy. I wonder how anyone can look at him and think ‘now there’s someone I can trust’.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@germy:
Maybe I shouldn’t have posted it here. But it’s certainly believable, knowing what we know about trumpf.
I was exposed to maybe a total of a minute of his appearance the other night, and I can’t believe the way he was sniffling every ent seconds hasn’t attracted more attention
Kattails
@WereBear: and there are still Trump lawn signs up.
OzarkHillbilly
@TaMara (HFG): She’s had them in a jar on her desk for 2 years+, why give them back now?
New Deal democrat
@p.a.: Yes, and thank you!
germy
@MattF: God speaks through him.
Ken
@germy: Is Falwell the one with the colloidal silver snake oil? The one being slapped by New York State and, I think, the FDA with cease-and-desist orders?
germy
@Ken: No, that’s the other one. Bakker is the one with the silver cure.
OzarkHillbilly
I have never seen a narcissist withdraw from life. I have seen them withdraw from the life they were living and start a new one with a whole new box of marks to grift.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Ken: I think that’s Jim Bakker, Tammy Faye’s ex. His dog really misses the air conditioning
PenAndKey
@Ken: Nope, that’s previously conflicted fraudster Jim Bakker. Oh, and Alex Jones, but he doesn’t count.
Ken
@germy: Thanks. I just googled, and Falwell is the one with the dubious loans and business deals from Liberty University for his friends. That is, his “friends”, according to some accounts.
OzarkHillbilly
@MattF: But he is a man of God!
germy
@OzarkHillbilly:
Yes, and usually in the middle of the night.
WereBear
@MattF: It’s part of the Authoritarian follower mindset: they literally have the alarms in their brains turned off so they can keep honing that obedience.
catclub
South Korea has handled the coronavirus extremely well, with extensive testing. I fear that N. Korea will be a real shitshow – and all kept secret like famine.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: now this one looks like The Beast itself has been at least temporarily roused
countdown to deletion and retweet with Kellyanne’s edit….
OzarkHillbilly
@germy: And a restraining order.
germy
@catclub: Iran is digging mass graves
Chyron HR
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Also, STIMULATE!
Just get a sock and watch anime like the rest of us, Mr. President.
germy
Chris Johnson
I’ve got a friend who says if Iran has the coronavirus, Russia has it.
Maybe Putin will have a little more to occupy him other than fucking with us.
Or, more practically, since Putin will be doing mostly what Trump is doing but internal to Russia, maybe both these fuckers plus fellow puppet Boris Johnson and the Tories will go down.
It does seem like a very big ask: ‘preside over a global pandemic in such a way that we kill off huge numbers of peasants AND they don’t rise up and kill us all’. If it works (in ‘disaster capitalism’ terms, not ‘they did it on purpose’ terms) it will become the go-to response for authoritarians and fascists worldwide, while that lasts.
Ken
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Because the only reason we’re not wiping out this disease (that we totally wiped out in January (but it’s Obama’s fault that we haven’t)) is that large banks can’t get cheap overnight loans from the Fed.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
The Beast is holding a news conference at 3 pm eastern, so there will be an hour window for whatever gains are made today to be wiped out. I assume there’s money to be made there is you know how
Frankensteinbeck
@germy:
The mass graves story is a lie, sort of. It’s a half truth that is effectively a lie. Iran has very strict burial customs, so they are digging a lot of graves all at once ahead of time. The death rate is nowhere near the level you normally associate with mass graves.
thylacine
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “Physiological disadvantage”?? I think the incompetent orange buffoon is the one putting us at a physiological disadvantage.
Geminid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The Trump organization has a lot of debt. Every time the Fed lowers rates the asshole saves a lot of money on some if not all of it. I always thought that was why he’s been whining ever since he took/stole office that the fed rates are too high.
Shalimar
@laura: Of course Bill Frist. You can’t solve a virus pandemic without skinning a few cats.
Fair Economist
Bolsonara has tested positive for coronavirus. In all seriousness, there’s a good chance he got it at Mar-a-Lago and it’s spreading there. Florida has a much more advanced epidemic than Brazil.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
what are the odds Florida overtakes WA for the fastest spread of the virus?
rivers
@germy: There’s a twitter thread which I can’t find now that explains why this is misleading. Yes, Iran is certainly understating the numbers, but they are burying everyone in the same area for sanitary reasons and they are digging graves in advance of deaths they expect. Also these are not pits for mass graves, they are actual normal sized graves. I wish I could find the thread, but this makes sense to me. Again, it’s not that they’re being honest about the numbers, but these pictures suggest a far worse situation than actually exists.
OzarkHillbilly
During times of internal stress, autocrats have a habit of looking for a scapegoat on the outside and attacking it to distract their populace from the ineptitude of their leader/s.
EthylEster
@artem1s: He can’t force R-Senators to vote no, so he’s already releasing them to vote however they want. And they want this out of Dolt’s hands.
Linky to support what sounds like a delusion to me?
Barbara
Regarding FMAP percentages, no state is currently lower than 50%, and 10 states and DC are above 70%. I can’t remember all the ins and outs, but at some point federal legislation decreed that the highest match could not be above a certain multiple of the lowest. Some states, like Mississippi, would probably be above 80% if it were simply the result of a formula based on net income in the state
ETA: Here is a link to current FMAP percentages.
EthylEster
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I remember when Dan Savage attended the GOP convention (as a delegate!) in 1996. He confessed to licking doorknobs as an evil plan to infect attendees. Maybe he had a cold or the flu at the time. There’s a “This American Life” episode about it.
EthylEster
@Fair Economist: Last I heard that was a rumor. Gotta cite?
Shalimar
@Ken: The payroll tax is an even more stupid reaction to this than a European travel ban was when the virus is already here. Giving people with jobs 15% extra to spend isn’t going to help anything. The massive problem will be all the businesses that close and people left without jobs.
Shalimar
@Fair Economist: Australia’s home affairs minister also has it less than a week after meeting here with Barr, Conway and Ivanka among others. No direct evidence, but it seems likely it is going around high-level Washington.
Shalimar
@EthylEster: It is still conjecture from limited facts. We will see who else gets sick in the next week.
Punchy
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Those gains are almost already wiped. I expect the Dow to close ~500 under today. Which, compared to yesterday’s dumpster fire, is considered….success?
Citizen Alan
Off-topic, but I will officially never offer political advice again, as I was the one a few weeks back pushing Andrew Gillum as a possible Veep candidate. He is now apparently involved in a crystal meth scandal.
Edmund Dantes
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: I have been here a long long time. Pre John leaving the gop.
lurk on and off. Used to be much more involved back in the schiavo days.
catclub
@Geminid: Wouldn’t that assume the debt is linked to some indicator rate? I guess it probably is.
ON the other hand, I also assume Trump is no longer paying on any loan agreement. What are they going to do?
Foreclose on the president? Deutsche Bank? Really?
EthylEster
@Shalimar: What facts? I got no facts. That’s why I’m asking for a source on these “conjectures”.
It’s OK to say “I have no evidence.” I have no problem with people saying anything if they just supply some evidence or admit they have none.
EthylEster
@Aleta: Did Jared ever get a security clearance?
mrmoshpotato
@TaMara (HFG): Hand Dump his balls? I thought NANCY SMASH! walked around with Dump’s orange nuts in a coin purse.
Fair Economist
@EthylEster: Fox, of all places, reported it. But it’s been sort-of retracted – apparently a subsequent test was negative. Sort-of because this test has far more false negatives than false positives.
Just One More Canuck
@germy:
Bush was a combination of Churchill and Roosevelt compared to Trump
Gary Ratner
Are we in the middle of a great natural experiment? After adjustment for other variables, a future researcher will measure statewide coronavirus mortality vs. Medicaid expansion status.
Geminid
@catclub: The creditors may have mortgages or other collateral. I would foreclose. Trump is going down in November.
mrmoshpotato
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “We’re rich fucks. The virus won’t touch us.”
“Oh yes. So true, so true.”
“It’s a dirty commoner virus.”
“Right again. Right again. My, aren’t we geniuses?
“Oh yes. So true. So true.”
Geminid
@Ken: Unlike his brother Jonathan, Jerry Falwell Jr. is not a minister, but holds an MBA. His brother runs the fathers church, while Jr. got Liberty University, quite a cash cow. His business sense may have skipped a generation. I have a Lynchburg friend who says grandpa and kin were serious bootleggers.
J R in WV
@catclub:
But we can see mass graves in sat pix, as in Iran’s new 100 yards long trench in the Qom cematary.
John Carter 1966
SCOTUS (fem side)
Let’s hope RGB and the girls stay safely away and Thomas, Alito, Kennedy, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and J.R. all have a Brett Boof Party.
LongHairedWeirdo
@PenAndKey: I’m sorry, but I’ll take issue with calling them hypocrites.
Hypocrisy is where you declare a standard, and are far more willing to excuses lapses by you and yours than by those who aren’t part of the clique.
Republicans don’t have any standards except:
So, you see, they’re evil, lying, despicable people, with no moral or ethical sense – but that means they’re immune to charges of hypocrisy. Even blaming Democrats for Covid-19, after their blaming of Democrats for ebola, isn’t hypocrisy, because their standards aren’t about “who should be blamed for a disease”; ebola was on the Democrats, because it’s always on the Democratic Party; Covid-19 is on the Democrats, for the exact same reason.
Hypocrisy demands that a person be acting in good faith to have any meaning, but the Republicans stopped arguing and acting in good faith in 1994 (at the latest – there’s reason to suspect they started earlier).
Procopius
In case you weren’t aware, the Fed already turned on the funding firehose. In fact, they turned it on last September 17. It apparently hasn’t worked.
Now I don’t know. Maybe Wall Street On Parade is a quack, fringe blog. Maybe I’m being beguiled by fake news. I do enjoy a good conspiracy theory, so I’m susceptible. I’ve been struck by the fact that this claim, that the Fed has been “lending” a lot of money to trading houses and banks because they are not liquid, has not been commented on more. But what if it’s true
ETA: The link doesn’t seem to have been added: https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/03/the-fed-has-233-secret-documents-about-jpmorgans-potential-role-in-the-repo-loan-crisis/