A baker in France has created coronavirus-themed Easter eggs, hoping to bring positivity to people as Covid-19 hits the country pic.twitter.com/thRkQfmkTg
— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) March 10, 2020
Coronavirus latest:
• 125,326 confirmed cases
• 4,625 deaths worldwide
• CDC raises Europe travel warning
• Greece reports first death
• India stops border crossings
• Tom Hanks tests positive
• NBA suspends seasonhttps://t.co/RJGKzOdwCl ??— Bloomberg (@business) March 12, 2020
This is the first pandemic caused by a #coronavirus.
We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic. This is the first pandemic that can be controlled.https://t.co/dIoa4jYAUN— Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) March 11, 2020
?? France, Spain and Germany are about 9 to 10 days behind Italy in #COVID19 progression; the UK and the US follow at 13 to 16 days. In Italy we waited too long, these countries should really start implementing aggressive containment measures now. pic.twitter.com/xL7jUczpmY
— Silvia Merler (@SMerler) March 10, 2020
Daily #covid19 sitrep from @WHO is up (numbers as of 10am Geneva):
China:
80955 (+31) cases
3162 (+22) deathsOutside China:
37371 (+4596) cases
in 113 (+4) countries
1130 (+258) deathsNew countries here are: Bolivia, Jamaica, Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo
— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) March 11, 2020
In the rest of the world:
Italy: +977
Iran: +881
Spain: +615
France:+372
S Korea: +242
US: +224
Denmark: +172
Switzerland: +159
Germany: +157— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) March 11, 2020
“We don’t do anything different, we just do it well,” Dale Fisher, National University of Singapore. Great roundup of what seems to have worked against #COVID19 in Asia. Kudos @Justin curry? ?@rebeccarat? ?@heldavidson? ?@eggersnsf? https://t.co/nXozdAeLnL
— Nicola Low #StillFBPE #LeaveALightOn (@nicolamlow) March 11, 2020
Nice description by the Korean authorities of how they responded to COVID19, as a rich democracy might, and effectively (so far), too. https://t.co/fSLUHOSADK
— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) March 12, 2020
Research shows that if interventions in China had been enacted a week earlier, 66% fewer people would have been infected. The same measures brought in three weeks earlier could have reduced cases by 95%.
The U.S. may by now have wasted that chance. https://t.co/iJkrWUIV0R— Adrian Zenz (@adrianzenz) March 12, 2020
China's #Covid19 case increase for March 11 is the lowest daily increase since … probably the 2nd, 3rd week of January. +15 cases, +11 deaths.
But China has now reported 85 imported cases.
Outbreak totals to date: 80,793 cases, 3,169 deaths, 62,793 recovered. pic.twitter.com/yaqnrVe89F— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 12, 2020
How Taiwan, which is much closer to the epicenter of the outbreak than we are, stopped the coronavirus in its tracks — and what we can learn from their response: https://t.co/r0Vn9wyxYa
— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) March 10, 2020
2. The fact that such a big chunk of South Korea's #Covid19 cases were under 50 probably relates to the demographics of the religious community the virus raced through. It also likely is a reason for the lower death rate in Korea. Younger patients fare better.
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 12, 2020
??????South Korea Press Conference Summary 030920 #COVID19
"Korea has faced difficulties w #COVID19 as the previous model of isolation/quarantine no longer seemed feasible.
Rather, we believe that we have created a new model fit for a pandemic in a globalized world." /1
— Hannah Nam MD (@HannahNamMD) March 11, 2020
Bahrain just flew 189 of its citizens from Iran back to Bahrain.
Of these 189 people, 77 have tested positive for #COVID19, highlighting the large burden of illness in Iran.https://t.co/VRsetbAtUQ
— Isaac Bogoch (@BogochIsaac) March 11, 2020
Elsewhere in India:
'We are invincible; virus dies in heat.'
'Let us go to [crowded pilgrimage town] to seek blessings.'
'Drink boiled karela water to prevent.'
'Chinese/Muslim conspiracy against Modiji.'
'Only poor folks spread virus, I am personally incapable of doing so.' https://t.co/AdcE6a4XAF— Rosie Roti ??????? (@supriyan) March 12, 2020
Countries we’ve heard about among highest per capita consumers of cigarettes (likely a correlation btwn smoking & coronavirus severity/death)
15 China
32 South Korea
33 Japan
34 Germany
40 Spain
41 Italy
69 US
74 Iran https://t.co/Bzz19dCQfi— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) March 12, 2020
Once community transmission gets started, the spread of the coronavirus has often been explosive, doubling every few days.
Quarantines, social distancing, and other mitigation measures can help to slow that growth.
All countries reporting at least 100 cases, logarithmic scale. pic.twitter.com/35cTNcs5gj
— Robert Rohde (@RARohde) March 11, 2020
WereBear
Looks like India is in competition with the US in Worst Case Scenario.
debbie
Has there been any information about the specific type of pneumonia this can cause? Is it its own type or something more known, like from strep?
Chetan Murthy
@debbie: https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
Punchy
Are we talking about the Chinese COVID or EU COVID?
Chetan Murthy
@Punchy: Yo dawg, we talkin’ CPAC-COVID!
WereBear
@Chetan Murthy: It’s the stupidest one!
Chetan Murthy
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/pelosi-trump-coronavirus-126178
I read this and my first thought was: “oh shit, she’s gonna get infected from one of these corpse-fuckers!” Jeezzzzzzz, I hope she’s taking every possible precaution, and damn whether Mnuchin feels disrespected or not.
Punchy
I suspect today”s the day Powell and/or Mnuchin is canned. Dow futures are sub 1K and Agent Orange has no patience for this stuff.
Shalimar
@Punchy: I agree it seems like Trump is going to fire someone soon to shift blame, but good god, getting rid of either Mnuchin or Powell will panic investors even more. Powell is competent. Mnuchin is, i don’t know, incompetent by normal standards but a financial genius compared to everyone else in the administration.
Shalimar
Monday was only the 11th worst decline in Dow Jones Industrials history. Another 2000 point fall will put Trump in the bottom 10.
TS (the original)
From the Washington Post
Europe blindsided by Trump’s travel restrictions, with many seeing political motive
burnspbesq
Whatever appears to work best, we can be confident that Trump will order the polar opposite.
Baud
@Shalimar:
Unless Trump replaces them with Jared. Everyone trusts Jared.
Spanky
I find it interesting that I never see Russia in the Covid-19 numbers
ETA – The JHU numbers show 20 cases total and zero deaths. I’m, uhhh, skeptical.
Shalimar
@Baud: I trust Jared almost as much as a meth addict in my house when I’m not home.
NotMax
@Punchy
Office of the chair of Federal Reserve is not one in which the holder serves at the pleasure of the president. So cannot be dismissed by the president. Pressured to resign, yes, but not fired.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Italy is a mess not just because of their government, they are a mess because the Italians refused to follow the guidelines because not socializing was to much of a sacrifice for them. This is doesn’t work if the population refuses to go along.
Shalimar
@NotMax: Still living in a reality where Trump doesn’t do whatever he wants and challenge courts to stop him, I see.
Gin & Tonic
@Spanky: I posted yesterday, that Ukraine has taken the now-standardly-aggressive quarantine actions, while Russia has done nothing of the sort.
They have, however, passed legislation allowing comrade Vladimir Vladimirovich to be President until 2036, so I’m sure they’ll be OK.
Ken
@Spanky: I’d think 20 cases and 0 deaths is believable for the first detection in a country. If Russia’s been reporting the same numbers for a month (or are doing so a month from now) then yeah, they’re lying.
NotMax
@Enhanced Voting Techniques
As it is Italy, if post-WW2 history is any guide (and it is), another government will be along shortly.
Lapassionara
Looks like the travel ban only encompasses the Schengen Area, so many countries on the continent are not included. We can still go to Latvia!
Shalimar
@Spanky: Ukraine started nationwide quarantine yesterday. I agree it seems very doubtful Russia has less of a problem.
OzarkHillbilly
Posted in the wrong thread:
FTFNYT, meanwhile, from a real world leader:
Chyron HR
@Spanky:
Bathtub accidents are through the roof, though.
Ken
@OzarkHillbilly: Well, if you’re going to repost your news, I guess I’ll repost my snark (after all the blog title promises a heaping helping):
I suppose studying and training are OK, if you’re not able to pick it up by osmosis from your uncle at MIT.
(And for added value in this thread: That bragging strikes me as someone who knows deep inside that most of their family doesn’t have any real accomplishments.)
Gin & Tonic
@Chyron HR: Off the roof, not through the roof.
OzarkHillbilly
@Ken: If Russia’s mouth is moving, they’re lying.
NotMax
@Shalimar
The Federal Reserve is a unique animal, not an agency of the executive. Emphasis added.
OzarkHillbilly
@Ken: Sarcasm is always repostable.
WereBear
It’s kind of amazing that Trump manages to do exactly the wrong thing, every time! Like he has some kind of incredible Stupid Instinct, and he has advisors with the same skill.
Shalimar
@NotMax: I understand. You understand. But you seriously don’t think Jared is talking Trump down now from his plan to send the Secret Service over to physically oust Powell from the building?
Dorothy A. Winsor
My building has banned visitors.
I’ve never seen a president mismanage a serious situation like this. I’m awe struck. Except for the possibly dying part.
WereBear
Oh, and the word on the digital street is the death rate is for COVID19 among Type 1 diabetics is 100%.
If you know any, bunker them NOW.
Punchy
@NotMax: You’re quoting the law. I’m not certain Trump cares about how laws work.
NotMax
@WereBear
Donnie Dorko.
;)
NotMax
@Punchy
Odd as it sounds to say it, there’s still enough of a majority in Congress that does, when it comes to things in their powerhouse.
danielx
Obligatory.
NotMax
@danielx
Also too, not out of place.
Gin & Tonic
Here’s how The Grauniad headlines the big speech: “‘He’s gonna get us all killed’: sense of unease after Trump coronavirus speech”
Dorothy A. Winsor
@TS (the original): Of course he didn’t tell European leaders ahead of time. He probably only decided on that travel ban 5 minutes before he went on the air.
I have a friend who works for the Fed. Her division was getting ready to shift to work from home next week. Some other divisions have already done that. This morning, the co-worker she spent most time with yesterday woke up with a 101 temperature.
joel hanes
@WereBear:
he has advisors with the same skill
Trump gets rid of advisers who say things he doesn’t want to hear.
OzarkHillbilly
@NotMax:I’ll see your majority in Congress that cares enough to defend it’s prerogatives and raise you one cowardly, subservient Republican Senate.
OzarkHillbilly
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I have a friend who is the head of HR at the STL branch. Now I wonder how she’s doing?
Dorothy A. Winsor
@OzarkHillbilly:
My friend is in Minneapolis. They’ve apparently been talking about the impact of COVID non-stop for days.
Soprano2
@WereBear: Oh shit, did not need to hear that, because my husband is 73 and a Type 1 diabetic. I sincerely hope the digital street is exaggerating. I’m not the panicking kind, but I’m getting more frazzled by the day because concern about this is always in the back of my mind.
OzarkHillbilly
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I’m sure my friend has been too. Probably weeks or more. (not only is she very smart, she’s very competent too) Until you mentioned the FED tho, I hadn’t thought of her. This has probably got her working night and day.
SiubhanDuinne
@Punchy: Mnuchin maybe, but not Powell:
WereBear
@Soprano2: Channel that energy into action. Create an “airlock” like Mnemosyne was talking about with her mother living with her brother. Mother stays in her area, brother comes home, showers and changes in the bathroom most distant from her.
Bunker, people. Bunker!
WereBear
I have been accumulating little things since I heard Trump fired Obama’s Pandemic Response Team. I knew what that meant.
Prescriptions filled, pantry stocked, double cat food shipments. Nudged the office with info, moved my work at home days to today and tomorrow. We all have permission to work at home if we think we should.
I think I should. I want to be part of the solution.
Dorothy A. Winsor
We’re going to early vote today and I have a mammogram appointment next week. At the moment, I plan to still do those. I’ll go to the gym in the building in a few minutes, use the machine, and then take a weight class. That only people in this building plus the instructor. I don’t have to decide about my writer group until next Wednesday. It’s funny. I’m simultaneously alarmed and having a hard time seeing that group as a dangerous place to go because it’s so routine for me.
Soprano2
@WereBear: Well, we only have one bathroom, plus I can’t keep him from going out and doing things. He’s not that worried about it, because he’s always had a strong constitution. I wish we could do such a thing, but he’s stubborn, and I could never get him to go along with it.
Dupe1970
@WereBear: Is there a source for this?
mapaghimagsik
https://www.giantmicrobes.com/ is working on a plush SARS-CoV-2. But the others are great. We have a Giant Ebola we keep in the guest room
Uncle Cosmo
@WereBear: This sounds fishy to me. Particularly if earlier reports (repeated here many threads ago) on the putative cause of death from COVID-19 are valid. (To recap: SARS-CoV-2 is able to cross the blood-brain barrier – which apparently weakens with age – & upon entering the central nervous system interferes with the breathing reflex.)
This mechanism doesn’t appear to have any relationship to the inability to produce insulin or blood sugar levels. I’d ask how many of those deaths were associated with better-established risk factors, e.g., age & other comorbidities. I’d also ask for corresponding mortality rates amongst type II diabetics, again controlled for age & comorbidities.
Correlation does not imply causation, as all statistics students learn. Also, Heinlein’s second-best way to lie: Tell the truth, but not all of it. (Not saying anyone in particular is lying about this, but they might, with no malice aforethought, be relaying something less than the whole truth.)
JR
Is it just me or did Trump really look not well last night? He does a weird cough/hiccup at about 45 seconds in — if someone did that in front of me I’d be like you should get that checked out.
I am a virologist and I worked with the CDC on the Zika response…while I do not claim special expertise on non-arthropod borne diseases, I can say that this is a clusterfuck of the first magnitude, and I can say with almost complete certainty that it was caused by political interference in the CDC’s work rather than incompetence at the CDC.
And that selective European travel ban that excludes only the places where Trump has resorts? Absolutely crazy.
p.a.
Signed up for a charity raffle at the pub last night without knowing what for. WON! 4 Tix to soccer match at Gillette ???. So far it has not been cancelled. Unsure what I’ll do. Trending towards no-go.
WereBear
@Dupe1970: It’s personal, but from a very informed Type 1 with an informal care network. But really, that’s a serious — if manageable — illness and so they are very much at risk, anyway.
If the “no co-morbidities” order goes out in overwhelmed hospitals… that will lead to a high risk all by itself.
snoey
@JR:
Stuff happens even at the CDC. This is why there is supposed to be an organization that could have seen this as it happened and called for plan B on the test kits. Too bad for us the wrong kind of President created it.
WereBear
Hurricane mornings are gorgeous. Because the whirling winds are just offshore and have sucked all the clouds into themselves.
I’m reminded of the scene in Shaun of the Dead, where Simon Pegg goes through his normal routine while surrounded by zombies. And he is on auto-pilot and doesn’t notice.
JR
@snoey: What I’m saying is that there was likely active suppression of the CDC’s response by a political appointee. Nobody at the CDC is this incompetent.
WereBear
Then try the second best thing and put him to bed as soon as he doesn’t feel well. Rest might let his body dodge complications. That’s the real issue. If things do get really bad, he might be a victim of rationed care. That can certainly contribute to a bad outcome.
Uncle Cosmo
Not entirely crazy. The travel ban applies to the Schengen zone, which includes most of the EU plus Iceland but excludes the UK and Ireland.
Within this region, people move freely, without customs or border controls. Travelers from outside the zone (e.g., USA) encounter passport and customs control when they enter the zone, but not again until & unless they leave it.
Someone from a Schengen country (e.g., Italy) could travel anywhere else within the Schengen zone without ever being screened for anything. (I myself have literally walked across a bridge connecting Germany & Poland at Görlitz in Germany and Zgorolec in Poland with nary an official in sight – and a longer one over the Danube between Štúrovo in Slovakia and Esztergom in Hungary with nothing but a small sign to show the change in jurisdiction.) So if you want to keep residents of a Schengen country with a high COVID-19 presence out of the US without being screened for the virus over there, you basically have to exclude residents from the entire zone.
The real problem in transmission is allowing US citizens, permanent residents, etc. to come home. IIUC the plan is to restrict return flights to a limited number of US airports where screening facilities (& quarantine/isolation housing) can be set up. Somehow I doubt that’s going to work all that well.
WereBear
This just in:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8/fulltext
However, even more important was the three deaths in my person’s health circle. That WILL make a person sit up and take notice, FYI.
snoey
@Uncle Cosmo: Particularly if earlier reports (repeated here many threads ago) on the putative cause of death from COVID-19 are valid. (To recap: SARS-CoV-2 is able to cross the blood-brain barrier – which apparently weakens with age – & upon entering the central nervous system interferes with the breathing reflex.)
Per my daughter the ID Doc:
No, people die of pneumonia
snoey
@JR: Not disagreeing, just trying to slide by that to make a broader point.
Sebastian
@Spanky:
Russia, and especially their male population, will be among the hardest hit globally. Medical care is atrocious, highest rate of smokers globally (for men), machoism, poor, no information/disinformation.
On the other hand, Russians tend to be smart and science oriented.
Bruce K
I feel like a selfish heel for thinking like this at this sort of time, but…
Dual national, US and Greece. Almost everyone I care about, including the most important person in my life, is in the US and I’m in Greece. If I stay isolated from them for too long I’ll go insane. I booked flights for a 1-week trip to Baltimore, May 1-8. I can’t figure out what last night’s news does to my plans.
Quarantine? Exile? Never see my loved ones again?
Sebastian
@WereBear:
This virus is going to decimate America. Hypertension? Diabetes? You just described 65% of the country.
WereBear
I know! Which is why I’ve been, in person, accused of OVERreacting ever since the news broke that, hey, BTW, we don’t have a working CDC any more.
I hit the alarm then and didn’t stop. I made sure the manager chairing our what-to-do work meeting got the Italy news right between the eyes. I switched my work at home days to the end of the week this week because we were 11 days out from total mayhem… a few days ago.
I’m not an epidemiologist but I do listen to them.
different-church-lady
“Be cool! Step out in style! Relax and enjoy your shoes! Relax and enjoy your shoes!!“
Fair Economist
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Italy is mostly a problem from the lag to hospitalization. Aside from quaranting the dozen initial towns, significant distancing only started about 2 weeks ago. Reported cases should go linear about now.
Spanky
Dow Jones record high in February was 29568. Closing value on Inauguration Day 2017 was 19827. A few minutes ago it was 21779.
All of Trump’s “beautiful” stock market. Wiped. Out.
Gotta stock up on cat food. I have no idea what the cats are going to eat.
Gin & Tonic
@Spanky: You.