While everyone is focused on Super Tuesday and the Democratic Primary, Israel is having its third election to try to establish an actual government, rather than Bibi’s semi-perpetual caretaker one, today. As of right now the exit polls seem to indicate that Israel is quickly careening towards a constitutional crisis! Let’s check out the meshugas, shall we?
From Bibi’s unofficial and unapproved political biographer:
Correction. All 3 exit polls give Netanyahu's coalition 60 seats. A long night ahead until the actual results https://t.co/lGmWrX1ikW
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
Channel 12 exit poll
Likud 37
B&W 33
Joint List 14
Shas 9
Lab-Meretz 7
UTJ 7
Yamina 7
Lieberman 6— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
Channel 11 exit poll
Likud 36
B&W 33
Joint List 15
Shas 9
Lab-Meretz 6
UTJ 7
Yamina 8
Lieberman 6— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
Channel 13 exit poll
Likud 37
B&W 32
Joint List 14
Shas 9
Lab-Meretz 8
UTJ 8
Yamina 6
Lieberman 6— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
Israel facing the tensest vote-counting period in its history as even a handful of #IsraElex2020 votes can make the difference between further months of stalemate, if Netanyahu receives 60 seats as predicted by the exit polls, and the extra seat his coalition needs for a majority
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
With 60 seats, the Netanyahu coalition’s preferred option for reaching a majority is tempting an opposition MK to defect. A few possible names spring to mind. If a defector isn’t forthcoming, Netanyahu will pressure Gantz to join, or perhaps Lieberman will have a change of heart.
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
If he somehow gains a majority and 61 MKs back his move against the legal system, Israel will face a constitutional crisis and for the first time a prime minister will claim he is not accountable to the rule of law. https://t.co/VBL1KXOJ9w
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
The constitutional crisis is what Bibi will try to jam through Knesset if he is, indeed, able to form coalition government after the votes are counted. Remember, for Bibi this election is about remaining prime minister or going to prison. It isn’t about Israel’s security or the common good or anything else. It is solely about not going to prison.
Netanyahu's triumph, like his campaign, is predicated on erasing this fact ⬇️ https://t.co/1OJQRDT0is
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) March 2, 2020
The Mercer’s appear to have their preferred candidate in Israel, not just the US.
There is Breitbart's Aaron Klein celebrating next to Yair & Avner Netanyahu tonight. https://t.co/oPzI0K3uSe
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) March 2, 2020
I think a lot of the reason that the numbers shifted between the first two elections held last year and today is that because of the actions of the President’s peace negotiating team, Bibi has made it very clear that if his coalition is reelected and he’s able to remain prime minister, that he will annex all the settlements in Area A, as well as significant portions of Area C (the Jordan River valley). This would leave the Palestine Authority with the West Bank equivalent of a terrestrial archipelago. A geographic reality that would make it impossible for there to ever be an actual Palestinian state as there would be no contiguous geography to establish a state. As is too often the case, fear and hate may carry the day.
Netanyahu’s senior aide Natan Eshel said that “hate is what unites” the right-wing camp led by Likud and that negative campaigning works well on “non-Ashkenazi voters” https://t.co/0BRbTQDq9P
— Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין (@MairavZ) March 1, 2020
Now we wait and see if the actual election results match the exit polls. And if Bibi is able to convince the one or two members of Knesset elect to jump to his coalition, if he doesn’t make it all the way to 61 seats outright, so he can try to destroy Israel’s constitution and rule of law system so he can stay out of prison.
Update at 6:25 PM EST
The Times of Israel is reporting updated exit polls!
Updated exit polls reveal Netanyahu coalition set back to 59 seats
Channels 12 and 13 update their exit poll results to include the last two hours of voting — 8 p.m. till 10 p.m. — and deliver possible bad news to a triumphant Likud.
The new figures in both polls show a drop in Likud’s favored rightist-Haredi coalition from 60 to 59 seats, slightly further from the needed 61-seat majority.
Channel 13’s results are:
Likud 37
Blue and White 34 – two more than the original results
Joint List 14
Shas 9
United Torah Judaism 7 – one less
Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7 – one more
Yisrael Beytenu 6 – two less
Yamina 6Channel 12’s:
Likud 37
Blue and White 32 – one less
Joint List 15 – one more
Shas 9
Yisrael Beytenu 7 – one more
United Torah Judaism 7
Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7
Yamina 6 – one less
Open thread!
Dorothy A. Winsor
All the cool kids are doing it.
senyordave
If I was a 15 year old Palestinian kid in one of the territories to be annexed I would be looking to go to bomb making school asap. If Bibi wins the kid will probably stand a good chance of being killed by settlers or the IDF.
guachi
If Israeli voters don’t care about corruption and law breaking, then let the country rot. Screw ’em.
dmsilev
@guachi: I guess we’ll find out this fall whether _this_ country cares about such things.
guachi
@dmsilev: If Palestinians decide violence is the only possible answer, and it probably will be, then every dead Israeli is on Netanyahu’s head. You invade someone’s land, they have a right to fight back with deadly force.
MJS
It’s really starting to look like this democracy and rule of law stuff isn’t going to be around much longer.
CaseyL
Netanyahu being the Perpetual PM of Israel, surviving every attempt to oust him, is profoundly dispiriting.
He’s as irredeemably a pustule of a human being as Trump, just more intelligent and articulate.
Ohio Mom
I thought the West Bank was already pretty much an archipelago of Palestinian areas. That’s one of the reasons I’ve long been convinced the two state solution ship has sailed off, and is unlikely to ever return.
If I could wave a magic wand, I’d like to see a one secular state solution. It’s always been hard for me as an American Jew to reconcile “America is a secular state and that’s one of the best things about it,” with “Israel is a Jewish (not secular) state and that’s what is great about it.”
Patricia Kayden
@Dorothy A. Winsor: It’s cute how Conservatives are all about “law and order” until they are all about being above the law.
senyordave
Is the concept of caring about whether your leaders are honest and decent people some sort of quaint, old-fashioned thing? I hope to see an ad against Trump in the fall that basically shows typical Trump behavior (making fun of people, spewing obvious lies, going after immigrants at his “rallies” (I think of them as Hitler-lite*, except Hitler was far more articulate). Then just post the question, “would you want someone like that dating your daughter, or representing your company, or …”
Another Scott
Thanks for the update.
I think Warren’s answer in the debate about what to do with the US Embassy in Israel was just about perfect. But it got me thinking about what else that means.
I’m of the mind that we cannot impose our will on other countries any more. And it’s been that way for a very long time. If Israel wants to annex the Jordan Valley and the West Bank and the highway to Damascus, we cannot stop them. But that doesn’t mean that we should continue to give them $3.8B/year in aid, and $8B in loan guarantees, and veto every resolution against them in the UN, and all the rest. Similarly, there are probably additional unconventional (non-military) ways to support the Palestinians in their efforts to have a sensible homeland.
If one side is throwing out all the norms, then we should not feel bound to pretend that everything is fine.
We cannot impose a settlement, but we can do more than nothing to support our values.
Cheers,
Scott.
The Dangerman
Hey, if the world is going to go to shit, it would be impolite of them not to join in the fun. If this sounds like a man stressed from having survived a Costco run, well, that’s me (local store? bad, I mean really bad, but most everyone still with Central Coast cheerful demeanor, but I can see chaos from here).
Is it possible for one hell of a group apology from red hat types for electing Lusty The Clown? Everything is peachy until the shit hits the fan and then … this …
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: It is de facto because of how the security arrangements are between the Israelis and the Palestinians. But this would make the reality on the ground the law. When it was only de facto, it was always possible to negotiate away from that as part of a peace agreement. Now, if it is also made de jure, it will be impossible to do so.
Kylroy
@senyordave: My approach to avoid the Godwin problem is to refer to Mussolini, rather than Hitler. Also a fascist, same era, but doesn’t melt people’s brains at the mention. Plus, Mussolini was a power hungry opportunist rather than a true believer, making the Trump comparison even more apt.
Ohio Mom
Adam @13: I see.
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom:
Adam @on the ocean.
Jay
In the aftermath of Greta Thunberg’s visit to Bristol, the local paper, the Bristol Post, “doxxed” local residents who made death threats against her on their article pages.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/abuse-threats-made-greta-thunberg-3897936.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Fleeting Expletive
Since the Covid virus is global and this is an open thread and I have to put it somewhere: C-SPAN just aired a piece of an executive meeting around the international efforts among an odd assortment of people. There was a guy (there were maybe 20 people around a conference table, 3 women that I saw) from Johnson & Johnson, a few men who spoke with European accents, several other sort of pharma research. Some were doing a sales pitch, kind of making promises. I wondered if it was real, hell they could’ve been actors*. Trump was in performative exec mode, kept pressing on timetables with a view to get a billion doses by next year, and “especially Seattle”. The gene sequence of Corona was graphed on January 10 and released to the world for scientists to work on. There was some serious science that I tried to follow about building on the matrix of SARS and MERS and HIV. Some are moving to Phase 2 trials (non human primates?) piggybacked on existing trials designed for those, and ebola.
Reassuring that everyone accepted the testing protocols even with the push for good news Right Now. The new director of the lead US agency, her name is Dr. Blix? she spoke very little but is very sharp.
I can see Biden, Warren, Pete–even Bloomberg make a meaningful meeting, with probably larger participation remotely for other questions from international participants. I can’t see Bernie managing to do such a thing well. I did not watch the whole thing, though from the beginning so there may have been a more fulsome introduction to the topic than I saw.
*It appalls me that this thought crosses my mind, and I thought I was pretty jaded, in the parlance of our times.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: They seem nice.
Adam L Silverman
@Fleeting Expletive: They were pharma execs and member of the government’s coronavirus response team.
Kent
Honestly I don’t see how this helps Israel in any way fend off an even wider BDS movement. I the double-down with a lawless Bibi and the only international supporter of the regime is Trump then most of the rest of the world is going to basically have free rein to ramp up the anti-Israel stuff.
If they want sympathy from the rest of the world, they need to be better, not worse.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Looks like those were public comments from accounts with public profiles with one or more profile pictures. Not doxing in any normal sense. People should stop diluting that word. Doxing is more like leaning on a social media provider to get person information, or hacking email to do the same, or worse. (People also self-dox by accident; comsec/opsec are hard.)
Adam L Silverman
debbie
@guachi:
I wouldn’t let Trump off the hook on that one.
Roger Moore
@Patricia Kayden:
“Law and Order” has always been a dog whistle for white supremacy. It’s about acting under color of law to preserve conservatives’ desired social order, rather than about enforcing the laws on the books.
Kent
They could easily do a 2-state solution along the 1967 borders and just leave everyone in place. You would create 2 multi-ethnic states:
Israel, a Jewish-majority state with an Arab and Christian minority population as it is today.
Palestine: A Palestinian-majority state with a Jewish minority in all the settlements, living under the protection of Palestinian police, defending their land claims in Palestinian courts, attending Palestinian schools, paying taxes to the Palestinian government, and carrying Palestinian passports.
If Palestinian Arabs can live peacefully in Israel under Israeli then Jewish settlers should be able to behave themselves and live peacefully in Palestine under Palestinian law. Or, if they don’t like it they can move back to Israel.
Of course that is just crazy talk. But it is theoretically possible.
opiejeanne
@The Dangerman: We hit Costco at 10am on Friday, and it was pretty empty for about a half hour, then it was suddenly packed. We only saw a few panic-shoppers, people with those flat carts loaded down with several mega-packs of toilet paper, as well as paper towels and massive amounts of other supplies.
Almost everyone was nice, though, and helped other shoppers find things like Clorox wipes. Meanwhile, someone bought almost all of the little alcohol wipes that are used before an injection by diabetics and others. There was one package left, but because it was Costco that means a 4-pack of 100 in each little box. I am set for the next 18 months.
Yesterday there were lines just to get into the Costco in Kirkland, and I expect it was probably like that at the one where we shop in Woodinville.
There were reports on the local CBS station that entire meat counters were empty at major grocery stores all over western Washington. Our market is open 24/7, and they restock at night, so for the things we will need for just ordinary life, like potatoes and fresh veggies and fruit and shampoo, might be available in the wee hours, or at least at 6am.
Fleeting Expletive
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you. What did you think of it?
SFAW
The mention of the Breitbart mini-fascist reminds me that Dead Fascist Andy Breitbart died eight years ago yesterday. As far as I know, he is still dead.
opiejeanne
@Fleeting Expletive: Especially Seattle area, but extra especially the East Side. We now have 6 deaths, unless that has changed since this morning; 5 at the hospital closest to us, where my appendix was removed three years ago, and where I had an office visit with my doc on Thursday.
The elder care facility, Life Care Center is 6 miles from my house. The hospital where 5 of the 6 died is 4 miles from my house. I wish everyone would stop focusing on Life Care Center as if the virus sprang up there spontaneously, but that is the reaction of a lot of people, saying, “Well, I’ll just stay out of that facility, or out of Kirkland,”
It’s been here for at least 6 weeks in the wild, undetected, more likely for 7 weeks, and the projected number of infected people is between 500 and 1500. I suspect the higher number is more likely.
Jay
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@senyordave: Hitler was far, far more competent that Trump could ever dream of being. Remember Hitler was a peasant corporal in a defeated military with no prospects in 1919 and died the absolute ruler of Germany in 1945. Hitler was a (evil) success story. Trump on the other hand failed at losing an election he had fixed.
CarolPW
@opiejeanne: Assume you meant the east side of Seattle? I am in eastern Washington (the fucking red dry side) but I haven not seen any reports of it here yet. And I was wondering about you for the last few days because I knew you were near the infection area and am very happy to see your nym!
Jay
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6610416/bc-covid-19-testing-more-than-united-states-premier/amp/
Zzyzx
Hope this is true
Zzyzx
And yeah, it’s a weird time to be in Seattle. The Whole Foods I went to today was mainly low on seltzer.
debbie
Well, this will be an interesting backdrop to the documentary I’m going to watch tonight, Afterward.
Yutsano
@Roger Moore: For a minute there I thought you were talking about the TV show…
Adam L Silverman
@Fleeting Expletive: I think if Anthony Fauci doesn’t stop correcting the President to his face so that reporters and Americans have accurate information, he is going to get fired.
Adam L Silverman
The Times of Israel has updated exit polls!
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-march-2-2020/#liveblog-entry-2251553
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
There’s got to be a healthcare think tank that will take him in so he can speak truth to Trump’s garbage.
Adam L Silverman
@opiejeanne:
Coincidence? I think not…//
Adam L Silverman
@Zzyzx: I just posted the updates from The Times of Israel up top and as a comment.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: My guess is someone has repeatedly explained to the President that firing Fauci will cause far more panic than having Fauci factcheck the President in real time causes him agita.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Agita which I hope eats him alive.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie:
opiejeanne
@CarolPW: Thanks. My husband has been sneezing for the past couple of days, but insists he doesn’t have a cold and that he’s not really sick. He thinks it’s dust from his desk, which is currently covered with tax forms from the beginning of time.
I didn’t sign up to live in Interesting Times, although I thought Trump might cause that.
When you say East Side to someone in Seattle, they know you’re talking about eastern King County. This includes Redmond, Bellevue, Woodinville, Kirkland (where 5 of the 6 deaths occurred and most of the infections are), and other points just east of Seattle and Lake Washington. Not sure if it includes Issaquah or Lynnwood or Renton. Possibly Renton. Pretty sure it doesn’t extend to Snoqualmie. Usually it is a reference to anything around Redmond and Bellevue. I hope that’s clear.
Adam L Silverman
What a moron!
Roger Moore
@Adam L Silverman:
Maybe he’d rather follow his conscience and get fired than suck up to Trump and keep his job. People rationalize doing the latter with the idea that it’s important they keep their job in order to keep doing something important/act as a moderating influence/be the adult in the room have only succeeded in sacrificing their integrity.
Karen
Bibi has already declared victory.
Roger Moore
@Adam L Silverman:
They can tell him as many times as they like; that doesn’t mean he’ll continue to listen.
opiejeanne
@Adam L Silverman: haha! Yes, we are probably asymptomatic carriers, being so healthy and in our 70s.
opiejeanne
@Adam L Silverman: Oh dear Lord, he’s selling that bunk? Well, at least a few of his moron followers will get the flu vaccine and be protected from that.
Roger Moore
@opiejeanne:
It sounds as if your husband is symptomatic.
Jay
@Karen:
Bibi always declares victory, even when it’s a yoouge defeat.
Adam L Silverman
@Roger Moore: As someone who quietly blew the whistle and then quietly resigned his senior fellowship at SOCOM’s Joint Special Ops University when that didn’t seem to matter and I was still being ordered to break Federal law, DOD regulations, and Florida state law, and then quietly went on my way, I fully understand this.
NotMax
Pedantic note.
Methinks you meant mishegoss (alt: mishegas) in this context.
Meshugas: crazies
Mishegoss: craziness
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Very funny!
debbie
@NotMax:
Then what’s Meshugena?
Brachiator
Third election in a year. Something to keep in mind the next time someone says that the US should have a parliamentary system.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: Dude, there are many things to be pedantic about. Transliterations are not one of them as there is no way to properly standardize a transliteration.
Another Scott
@Roger Moore: Donnie gets bored. He just won’t invite Fauci to the White House any more. He’ll say that “people say we’ll have a strong bigly vaccine soon” and that will be enough.
Seriously, he knows he’s got no power or leverage with Fauci. He’ll not attack him. Donnie’s a coward and is afraid of competent people who he can’t bully.
Cheers,
Scott.
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman: Yiddish transliteration is almost as bad as English spelling. Yes I went there.
joel hanes
@senyordave:
I went full Godwin here
Let’s consult the source
https://twitter.com/sfmnemonic/status/896884949634232320
joel hanes
@Adam L Silverman:
gah
When someone says something that Trump doesn’t want to hear, he does that just-bit-into-something-bitter face with the crossed-arm “I’m closed” body language.
What a spoiled fucking child.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Transliteration is irrelevant. They are two separate words, with similar but not the same meaning. Very roughly speaking one is used as an adjective and the other a noun.
@Debbie
Variation of meshuga.