#COVID19: The death toll from the outbreak has topped 2000.
China reported 136 new deaths on Feb. 18, bringing their deaths to 2004. Three other deaths were previously reported outside of China.
New cases rose by 1749, bringing the total reported cases in China to 74,185. pic.twitter.com/iPjlOKqrJQ— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 19, 2020
#Coronavirus latest:
-China death toll tops 2,000
-Over 14,000 discharged in China⁰
-Total infected globally rises over 75,000
-South Korea reports 10 more cases
-Japan to release cruise ship passengershttps://t.co/83LAP50xJU— Bloomberg (@business) February 19, 2020
This is based on data from over 40,000 patients. #SARSCoV2 #coronavirus causes mild #COVID19 disease in over 80% of patients. Mortality is low ~2%. This is welcome news in terms of the long-term impact of the virus. https://t.co/Fo319klfQs
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) February 18, 2020
So, #Trump said #COVID19 would "go away in April" when China gets hotter.
Nope.
"Sustained transmission & rapid growth of cases are possible over a range of humidity conditions…changes in weather alone will not lead to declines in case counts."https://t.co/5MiTkm2oTU— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) February 19, 2020
Will the #coronavirus #COVID19 outbreak become a deadly pandemic that sweeps the world?
That's the key question. To answer that, we need answers to these two questions first.
An update on what we know about CFR & R0: https://t.co/McWL2Jg8vk
— Julia Belluz (@juliaoftoronto) February 18, 2020
Researchers in Germany presented evidence that people who have the new coronavirus can infect others even when they have no symptoms. Their findings indicated that people may be spreading the disease before they know they are sick. https://t.co/YkDd0ZYPpj
— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 19, 2020
Smart story. #Covid19https://t.co/Gs7tLfS0OD
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 18, 2020
80% of the bulk drugs (APIs) India uses to produce meds come from China – mainly from Hubei ?? No APIs supplied in 25 days. ?? Drug makers have enough API supply for 2-3 months. ?? #COVID19 outbreak could cause serious drug supply issues worldwide.
— Global Health Strategies (@GHS) February 17, 2020
Hubei has – in recent years – become a hub for manufacturing of ingredients used in prescription drugs. In many instances, starting material manufactured in the province is shipped abroad (in particular, to India) for use in the manufacture of active pharmaceutical ingredients. https://t.co/2wK46iHMTU
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) February 17, 2020
U.S. factories in China are open but face "severe" shortage of workers https://t.co/HXTfCp1uUl
— Bloomberg Next China (@next_china) February 17, 2020
The coronavirus outbreak has affected both sales and production for Apple, with the company signaling it may not meet revenue guidance for the March quarter https://t.co/bFOra1mHDI pic.twitter.com/lQSsRt1nwY
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 18, 2020
NYTimes reporter:
1. The Communist Party would like you to believe that they are getting the coronavirus outbreak under control. Yes, the no. of recoveries has exceeded deaths; the daily tally of new infections and deaths has declined steadily since Feb. 12. But it's too soon to conclude anything.
— Sui-Lee Wee 黄瑞黎 (@suilee) February 19, 2020
10. Some 330 million (!) migrant workers are not back at work yet. Of this, 100 million will return in March if the virus is brought under control, the government said. https://t.co/5LuUS5tDmH
— Sui-Lee Wee 黄瑞黎 (@suilee) February 19, 2020
Hello, you can read it here: Thread by @suilee: 1. The Communist Party would like you to believe that they are getting the coronavirus outbreak… https://t.co/K9a4ZddfCp. Enjoy :) ?
— Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) February 19, 2020
All quiet in #Beijing with millions of residents yet to return after the Lunar New Year break. #China #coronavirus shut down pic.twitter.com/qgwS132pii
— Stephen McDonell (@StephenMcDonell) February 18, 2020
Had been wondering this myself:
How did Wenzhou — some 900km from the epicenter of the #COVID19 outbreak — become the the third city in China after Wuhan and Huanggang to enforce a total lockdown on its residents?
Our reporter @DandanNee explains: https://t.co/UFCFmNdgaK
— David Paulk ??? (@davidpaulk) February 16, 2020
Travel restrictions imposed to control the spread of the coronavirus have also blocked shipments of animal feed. Chinese farmers, faced with starving chickens, have been forced to cull stocks https://t.co/XtpV35IMrp
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) February 17, 2020
Coronavirus is keeping both energy demand and industrial output at a record low, which means a reduction in carbon emissions https://t.co/sEvqNXQBub
— Bloomberg (@business) February 19, 2020
JPL
I hope that Qian keeps us updated about the conditions in Wuhan.
Barbara
Two percent would be a high death rate for something so contagious. I suspect it is considerably lower because people with mild symptoms don’t seek care, but that does mean once you have discernible symptoms there is a non-trivial chance of serious illness that appears to have pneumonia type effects.
Geminid
Thank you for the post.
Baud
Presaging one of the key planks of the Baud! 2020! Green Great Society plan to address climate change.
YY_Sima Qian
Yesterday, all Chinese provinces ex-Hubei had single digit increases in new confirmed cases, most of them low single digits. 8 provinces and Macau showed 0 new cases. For the first time ever, the total number of people under treatment decreased (by 211) in China, meaning sum of recoveries + deaths was greater than the number of new cases. Hopefully this is the start of a trend that shows the overall stress on the medical system in China is peaking. I don’t see the under treatment data broken down by province and city published anywhere, though I am sure the data is available somewhere, but I am sure that number is still increasing in Wuhan. The stock of suspect cases have been dropping rapidly as well, from nearly 30K 10 days ago to just over 5K cases now. That indicates the authorities, even in Wuhan, are able to process much more quickly the undetermined cases to confirm or clear, which is the first step toward getting the people with COVID-19 at least some medical treatment, especially to prevent people with moderate symptoms from worsening to severe or critical. Mild cases do not necessarily need much medical intervention. It is also the first step toward data reflecting reality.
Epidemics developing a new peak is indeed a worry. On the other hand, 100 million migrants did return to work (or at least the places they work) since 2/10, and there has been barely a blip in daily increase of new cases in China ex-Hubei. If the places where the migrants are coming from are essentially COVID-19 free, then the migrants would not be bringing the disease to their destinations. Furthermore, Hubei has traditionally been a large source of migrants labor, millions of would be returnees will remain under lock down for a while. I think the trends in China ex-Hubei has been very encouraging, and have been sustained for several days. I doubt the Chinese government will suddenly open the flood gates, just steadily widening the stream. All of these travel restrictions and lock downs are indeed unsustainable, but I think it could be sustained for a couple of more weeks ex-Hubei.
Even within Hubei, the increase in new cases have significantly dropped in most cities ex-Wuhan. I could foresee a phased lifting of lock downs in Hubei, as cities show they are new case free for a period of time. Unfortunately, Wuhan’s liberation is probably at least six weeks away… Universities and K-12 education systems in China ex-Hubei have already given internal guidance that school is to resume in late Mar. That is an indication of the Chinese government’s assessment of where things are heading. No guidance yet for Wuhan. My WAG is resuming classes in early May, if everything goes well, and students will take spring and fall semesters back to back, no summer break! :-0
With all the migrant labor yet to return, factories across China are facing dire shortages. Local governments of the manufacturing centers (mostly along the coast) have had to be very creative to facilitate and support the local enterprises. They are going to inland provinces like Sichuan, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui to look for and sign up available labor, and hook them up directly with the key enterprises. Local governments are taking the responsibility to test the potential workers (not just temperature, but by test kit!), and arranging transportation to ship them directly to the factory dormitories, to minimize potential for infection en route. That suggests test kit availability is no longer an issue in China, so perhaps China can spare Japan a few thousand kits?
The CCP regime is really exercising its muscles for organization, mobilization, control and regimentation, muscle that has not had to be exercises at such scale since before the start of the Reforms. Not in Xinjiang, not in Tibet, not during the post-Tiananmen months. This is a hint of what China on war footing looks like. Fully justified under the current public health emergency, IMO. We will see, as the emergency passes, how much of it might become the new normal…
YY_Sima Qian
Just checked the data out of China yesterday again. The every province ex-Hubei, and every city in Hubei ex-Wuhan, posted drops in the number of active cases. Wuhan saw an increase of 868 in total active cases, 1660 new cases. So the situation in Wuhan remains serious. One hopes that the continued large increase in Wuhan is at least in part due to the blanket efforts to find infected persons among the population, and it would start to drop significantly in the coming days. The other cities in Hubei has posted bumps in new cases in the past couple of days, due to similar efforts there.
ziggy
Sounds like good news overall, it will be interesting to watch what happens over the next week or so, if this trend continues.