1. GOP pollster (who said Laxalt would be gov) polling Dem electorate.
2. Small sample (413)
3. Caucuses notoriously hard to poll and with Iowa Effect, early voting and Bernie/Pete/Warren with best orgs, hard to tell.
4. Full impact (if any) of Culinary not in here.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 14, 2020
Per the AP, “Go West: 2020 Democrats seek their fortunes in Nevada“:
As the Democratic presidential race hurtles toward Nevada, candidates in the still-crowded field are jumping into their first test in a racially diverse state with solid union muscle and shaky plans for a presidential caucus.
Nevada has no obvious front-runner, though Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders heads into the contest on strong footing. The state has received only a sliver of the attention of the first two states on the primary calendar, Iowa and New Hampshire. Looking at the jumbled field, the state’s most powerful union decided to take a pass on endorsing a candidate, rather than make a divisive choice or risk picking a loser. Most of the state’s most prominent officials have stayed neutral.
The open race has every Democrat spending much of the next week searching for fortunes in the state’s working-class neighborhoods, union halls, casino convention halls and stuccoed suburbs. For Sanders and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, it’s a chance to prove their staying power after strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. For former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, it could be a life preserver to rescue their bids after disappointing starts. For Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, it’s a chance to prove her third-place finish in New Hampshire wasn’t a fluke.
Candidates are making a get-out-the-vote push Saturday morning as early voting starts, and they plan to attend a Saturday night fundraising gala for the Las Vegas-based Clark County Democratic Party. Several candidates are making the hourlong flight up to Reno, a city newly flush with tech money and California transplants, and are due back in Las Vegas on Wednesday for the ninth Democratic debate….
The party has been fortified and professionalized over the years by former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The organizing force of the party and its allies is still referred to as the “Reid Machine,” and many of his former staffers hold key roles on the presidential campaigns.
The 80-year-old former senator, who retired in 2016 and has been battling cancer, has repeatedly said he won’t endorse before Nevada’s caucuses. His decision not to back a candidate in the still-volatile field has been echoed by many of Nevada’s top elected officials, including the governor, two Democratic senators and two of three Democratic members of the House…
While billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer fared poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, he could be a contender in Nevada, where he’s blanketed the state with ads and billboards. Steyer’s past political activism established some connections for him in the state, but it’s unclear whether his smaller campaign staff can convert the name recognition into votes…
(Still not helping, Steyer. Go away already, and improve the signal-to-noise ratio.)
.@lasvegasweekly endorses Joe/Amy
"Sanders is the only clear non-starter. It’s impossible not to regard the VT senator in a Trumplike mold..the left wing version of Trump: isolated, angry, unable to work with others..simply guarantees a Trump 2nd term."https://t.co/FsMESmvYYX
— Lindy Li (@lindyli) February 13, 2020
More (potential) spoilers:
MORE NEWS: A new center-right organization that opposes President Donald Trump is launching a voter mobilization effort encouraging disaffected moderates in Nevada to switch their party registrations and participate in the Democratic presidential caucus. https://t.co/H8MkxCafn5
— Megan Messerly (@meganmesserly) February 13, 2020
… While Trump has encouraged Republicans to cross over and vote in the Democratic primary in order to select the “weakest” candidate to oppose him in the general election, this new organization, Center Action Now, is trying to get center-right voters to elect a Democratic presidential nominee they could support in the general election over Trump, according to Tim Miller, one of the groups’ directors and a former Jeb Bush staffer. The organization — which was established as a nonprofit on Feb. 3 — launched its voter engagement effort ahead of the New Hampshire primary and is now turning its focus to Nevada.
Miller said Center Action Now’s goal is to “expand voter engagement among disenfranchised moderate, former Republican voters who don’t feel like they have a home in the political process.”…
The organization, which was first reported on by Quartz on Tuesday, plans to identify Republicans and right-leaning nonpartisan voters in Nevada in coordination with other groups and organizations that maintain lists of such voters. Center Action Now is also launching a digital ad program in the state focused on building up its list of moderate voters and getting people to re-register to vote as Democrats by directing them to iwillvote.com, a voter registration website paid for by the Democratic National Committee…
In an effort to identify the types of voters it’s looking for, the organization has run digital ads targeting both Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Trump. One Facebook ad, which ran ahead of the New Hampshire primary, shows a picture of the two politicians side by side and encourages people to “sign our pledge for sanity.”…
Miller declined to provide any details about who is funding the group, its budget or the size of its staff. As a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, the organization is not required to disclose its donors. According to Facebook, the group spent $13,280 on ads the day before and the day of the New Hampshire primary. The Nevada campaign, Miller said, will begin “imminently.”
He also said that a “much higher percentage” of the group’s financial resources will be directed toward voter contact through phones, text and mail over digital ads…
“A big part of this is going to be telling people they can do this,” Miller said. “My anecdotal feeling is that a lot of voters who are inclined to support a Democrat in the general election don’t realize that they can participate, or how to or what a caucus is, or what to do when they get there.”
And given how well the Iowa caucuses went — not to mention the last cycle in Nevada — that’s not hardly gonna reduce next Saturday’s fustercluck. But I’m sure Miller has the very best intentions!
re-allocation, as well as Bernie's inability to expand his coalition, is probably going to hurt Bernie's chances at winning NV. https://t.co/yDwMMUd6GV
— snow??anomics?? (@snowmanomics) February 12, 2020
Especially since those reallocation efforts are off to such a *fantastic* start…
Update: We have updated this story on the attacks faced by @Culinary226 to clarify that one of those comments appears to have come from a Trump supporter. The rest of the attacks noted in the story appear to come from self-identified Sanders supporters. https://t.co/JvxqcVPNgo
— Megan Messerly (@meganmesserly) February 14, 2020