Gentle reminder:
Correlation does NOT mean Causality#Science pic.twitter.com/WxKDr4a1BC— Luis Lopez-Sangil (@bioluisinho) February 3, 2020
Seven Democrats will be taking the stage in just hours, for the final debate before the NH primary. You can see it live on #wcvb tonight at 8p #wcvb pic.twitter.com/doQM83G539
— antoinette antonio (@antoinetteA) February 7, 2020
This is my local news station, but I sincerely doubt I’ll be watching the debate tonight. The only people looking forward to it are those who think politics is a less glittery form of professional wrestling, and I’m sure that any “news” will reach me second-hand via social media in record time.
The Buttigieg surge in NH is obviously quite significant. I'd sort of love to see a poll of NV or SC though. https://t.co/CLQFbRJbUr
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 7, 2020
I suspect Buttigieg took most of those ‘new’ votes away from Sanders, who has been widely regarded as the inevitable winner, because the Live Free or Die state is bottom-heavy with anarcho-libertarians and ‘Peoples Republic of Massachusetts” self-styled refugees. Also, the state takes great pride in being Not Iowa, because fvck those rubes, with their dumb-arse ‘caucus’ routine, stealing NH’s media-tourist dollars during the slow season. But now that Iowa has proven itself publicly incapable of picking a winner — and Buttigieg has moved to top position as the choice to piss off the actual Democrats, among NH’s not-inconsiderable crossover Repub/’independent’ primary voters — well, he’s not my first choice but more power to him, regardless.
Excellent suggestion for the debate, which almost certainly won’t happen:
Both Bernie and Biden should announce their VP picks. Bernie especially, because have a right to know if a vote for him is a vote for President Gabbard in 2022.
— Iowasca Tripper (@agraybee) February 6, 2020
The losers: all of us https://t.co/dINSqz1lvM
— The Mall Krampus (@cakotz) February 7, 2020
.@TomPerez this morning before heading to NH for the debate: https://t.co/k66OdEB9Va
— Muriel Chase (@MurielEChase) February 7, 2020
Also, ongoing irritation with the entire political horse-race media: Pete won, or maybe Bernie, but Joe definitely lost. What else is there to say?…
.@ewarren came out of Iowa in the top three. She OVER-PERFORMED the polling. If you are leaving her off graphs or reporting her as anything other than top three, you are erasing her and promoting a sexist narrative. Do your job. Stop erasing women.
— Jodi Jacobson (@jljacobson) February 6, 2020
Baud
I think Pete is consolidating the ABB vote at Biden’s expense, and maybe some of Warren’s.
Man, I hope Warren can turn it around.
And if Biden is going to fade, it’s too bad he didn’t do it earlier in the process.
OzarkHillbilly
The best plans money can steal.
Elizabelle
@Baud: ABB does not work as shorthand anymore. What is it?
Anybody but Biden?
Anybody but Bernie?
Anybody but Bloomberg?
Clear as mud.
debbie
@Baud:
Or voters in conservative states are too afraid to commit to Progressives.
mrmoshpotato
Feel the burn. ???
debbie
@Elizabelle:
Anti-Bernie Bros?
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
With all that money, you’d think he’d hire an editor.
@Elizabelle:
Let’s be real. It means Anybody But Baud! The Establishment hates me.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone ???
Baud
@debbie:
That wouldn’t explain the change in polling. Political alignments have been set for a while now.
mrmoshpotato
@OzarkHillbilly: Psst Mikey. I got some lists. You want ’em? Lemme know.
-Steyer
Baud
@rikyrah: Good morning.
John S.
@OzarkHillbilly: Most folks don’t care. Social media tells them that there’s nothing new under the sun, politicians are all the same, and everyone does it anyway.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud: Already planning your trip to Milwaukee to protest getting 0 delegates?
SFAW
Someone better mansplain to Jodi Jacobson that Warren has Girl Cooties, and so therefore is not a viable candidate, because Stinky Girl Cooties Are Stinky. [And it would surprise me not one iota to see the Traitor-in-Chief (or his shills) actually use that “argument” during the campaign, if Warren gets the nom.]
debbie
@OzarkHillbilly:
It’s the same kind of entitled shortcut as this disaster.
Book publishing: As white as it was when I left it 25 years ago. //
mrmoshpotato
@John S.: But will Upchuck Todd upgrade to “All sides are equally as bad!”?
SFAW
@Elizabelle:
Asea Brown Boveri, a large conglomerate. [Although I guess the second “B” could be “Baudveri.”]
Baud
@debbie:
LOL. They just changed the covers???
Elizabelle
@SFAW: Yeah, really.
Too many Bs right now.
debbie
@Baud:
Casting himself as the safest choice while Trump and the GOP grow nuttier and nuttier is drawing nervous people as well as uncommitted voters.
SFAW
@John S.:
I realize I’m probably an outlier here, but I question whether “social media” encompasses “most folks.”
Butter Emails
@OzarkHillbilly:
I see this every once and while for different politicians and proposals and policies. My basic response is so what? Do these organizations not put out these policies specifically because they want them adopted?
debbie
@Baud:
Sigh. SMH. Publishing is as insular as ever.
SFAW
@Elizabelle:
Yes. I’m just worried that Baud will also include “Anybody But elizaBeth” in that list.
mrmoshpotato
@SFAW: Any Branch Banking (various locations)
Baud
@mrmoshpotato:
Yep. I’ll be doing the Laverne & Shirley chant down Milwaukee’s Main Street.
Baud
@SFAW:
She should have gone as Beth Warren to complete the set. No one likes outliers.
mrmoshpotato
@Elizabelle: Obligatory
OzarkHillbilly
No. Just no. First, I wasn’t in competition. 2nd, I didn’t really care all that much about the results. 3rd, the only meaning that would be derived from the timely release of the results would be the slanted spins of prejudiced pundits and political operatives and that lack is a decided win for me. Not to mention the entire state of New Hampshire. I wonder if lightening can strike twice?
In the end, the few delegates at stake will be properly allocated according to the fucked up caucus process. The late announcement changes that not a whit.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Baud:
Yes, they just changed the covers. They could have featured books about diverse characters, but no. I wonder what the meeting was like where everyone said that’s a great idea!
I see rumor is that Vindemann will be removed from the National Security council today with the excuse that Trump is trying to reduce overstaffing.
Baud
@debbie:
I wish they had done that with the Bible, just for the lulz.
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
I wish you had given me a trigger warning; I barely made it to my fainting couch.
Are campaign platforms now documents which must now clear the same hurdles that scholarly works must clear? I think there’s a difference between lifting platform wording and quoting Neil Kinnock without attribution. [Although that whole episode belongs in the Pearl-Clutching Hall of Fame.]
Not yelling at you, of course, just at the pearl-clutchers.
Elizabelle
The LA Times had a really nice article on “Hair Love.” Link to the short film (all 6:48 of it) is embedded within this article.
‘Hair Love’ filmmakers on normalizing black hair and ‘girl dads’
OzarkHillbilly
@debbie: Here’s an idea: Promote books by black authors, say Maya Angelou or maybe TN Coats.
Naaahhh, who am I kidding. That’s just crazy talk.
satby
@debbie: Pete is a progressive, just a pragmatic enough one to know that massive change might take some time and buy in from more than the dirtbag left. And he’s bringing in the Independent voters that Sanders claimed he could. Plus he’s just a nice guy, and really, wouldn’t that be a huge relief from angry, shouty, grievance junkie old men?
mrmoshpotato
@Baud: That’s ridiculous. Everyone knows Jeebus was an attractive white man with blue eyes with long flowing brown hair.
OzarkHillbilly
@Butter Emails: Promoting other people’s ideas is fine, but footnotes. With all that money he couldn’t buy a few footnotes? You know, give credit where credit is due?
Or is that too old school?
Baud
@satby: Unfortunately, we don’t have any front pagers demanding we be nice to Pete supporters.
I’m happy for you that he’s doing well.
SFAW
@satby:
I freely admit that I have not been following his campaign as much as Warren’s, but my sense is that he’s doing pretty well at adopting the finger-waggy, “liberals don’t understand/appreciate the Salt of the Earth, Real American midwesterners” schtick; he’s just not as shouty as Bernie. Happy to be proven wrong, especially if he gets the nom.
satby
I’ve always been an ally of LGBT people, but only in the last few years have I really known any (out anyway) T folks personally. So what Pete said last night on Colbert’s show really touched me, because one of my friends puts herself in danger weekly going to rural areas to do education, support and outreach to LGBT kids who may be struggling in conservative communities. Acceptance saves lives.
Amir Khalid
@OzarkHillbilly:
If Bloomberg cheats on his policy homework, then he doesn’t actually know the material, and he’s not prepared to make policy decisions. Disqualifying fail.
rikyrah
rikyrah
@Elizabelle:
Thank you for the link ??
Baud
@rikyrah:
Actually, I don’t think anyone would call Trump an insider (at least not in 2016).
Ken
@debbie: Wasn’t there was a case a few years back where people were complaining about some YA movie – maybe Hunger Games – because a black actress was cast, and the author said “The character is black. Did you read the description on page X?” There was also that woman who went into a rage over some ad because “Santa is white”.
Possibly someone at B&N was aiming for that idea. That is, we imagine some characters as white, even though the books don’t describe them as such. Though I really doubt that was the strategy, and if it was they made some terrible picks.
debbie
@satby:
No argument from me. If it’s between the two, I’d have no hesitation. But I’m not ready to let go of Warren yet.
satby
@SFAW: no, that’s a wrong impression, so you may want to look at some actual videos of his appearances instead of relying on social media stuff, which usually has a bias.
@Baud: Still team Warren, but I’m happy that in spite of all the crap thrown at him he’s doing better than (I’m sure) even he expected. Because it means a great deal to many people who only 6 years ago even got the right to marry, and who are their civil rights getting rolled back now.
rikyrah
Starfish
@Elizabelle: Anyone But Baud. Band’s stunts this campaign season have drawn a lot of haters who do not like the Comic Sans on the t-shirts. Baud did not realize how much design nerds hate that font.
Elizabelle
@rikyrah: You were so good to bring “Hair Love” to our attention in the first place. Excellent film. Rooting for it.
ETA: I think making the dad a young one with dreads and tattoos was a perfect choice.
rikyrah
satby
@rikyrah: exactly what I’ve been saying for years!
debbie
@rikyrah:
Two old men, shaking fists at the clouds from porches on opposite sides of the same, white street. Nothing more than that.
Jeffro
I’ll be interested to see where we stand after Super Tuesday. I think that’s when Bloomberg will either get out or really step up the spending/campaigning, and we’ll know by then if Buttigieg has any staying power as well. Amy K could well be out after NH too.
rikyrah
debbie
@Ken:
New Yorkers are very insular. If they think something is a good idea, the rest of the country will too! //
Coming from the Midwest, I ran into this a lot in NYC. Of course the opposite is also true.
SFAW
@satby:
Good one!
I don’t “do” social media, except reading some of the stuff I see here. My (apparently incorrect) assessment was based on his own commercials, also some random comments he’s made (which subsequently appeared on TV). The “I’m the only one who understands Middle America” vibe came through on those — at least to me it did. As I said: happy to be proved wrong if he gets the nom.
Baud
@satby:
Warren/Buttigieg would be kind of cool, except for all white aspect of it.
Jeffro
@rikyrah: Yup. 2016 was Wilmer’s high-water mark, even if he doesn’t realize it yet.
rikyrah
SFAW
@debbie:
If the rest of the country knows what’s good for them, they will.
satby
@Jeffro: I don’t think Pete will go the distance, but he’s demonstrated that decency can win and he’s got some clear capabilities at management and coalition building, plus he’s got good advisors. Warren and Biden are also happy warriors, decent and capable. We’re in good shape with three out of the top four candidates.
rikyrah
Ken
I guess the upside is that next January the incoming President (assuming please God it’s not Trump) can just dump the few remaining people on our top executive and advisory bodies, on the grounds that they were either a Trump lickspittle or didn’t have the principles to resign.
SFAW
@Starfish:
Fixed
satby
@SFAW: but a lot of biased and sometimes inaccurate social media gets copied here, including two times entire threads went sideways in outrage over what turned out to be completely inaccurate stories about Buttigieg.
OzarkHillbilly
According to JK Rowling, that’s what happened with Hermione in Harry Potter.
Baud
@satby:
I kind of disagree. I feel like no one is really a happy warrior this year, and that’s what is missing and making the primary so dreadful. Kamala had the best shot at it, and Warren comes close, but no one quite has it yet.
Ken
@rikyrah: Though I never plan to run for office, were I to do so, I would hope that I’d retain sense enough to drop out when my polling numbers fell below the margin of error.
SFAW
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
He should be glad that Shill Barr isn’t opening a Treason investigation on him. So far.
And after him, Pelosi and Schiff.
[I wish I were kidding a lot more than I am.]
satby
@rikyrah: so why would Bloomberg or Steyer have more appeal than Biden?!? Does not compute.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
To be fair, she has a pretty white name, it’s set in the UK, and there were the movies.
SFAW
@satby:
As I said, I don’t generally form my opinions based on tweets, etc.
A Ghost To Most
@Elizabelle: Mighty rich, coming from Barcelona Barbie.
randy khan
@Ken:
I don’t know what B&N was thinking, but my first reaction on reading about this was to ponder why there was some reason the characters in question were assumed to be white. There is, after all, a quite famous Broadway (and movie) version of The Wizard of Oz in which all of the characters are black, and theaters regularly cast black actors in Shakespeare plays. (I’ve even seen a race-switched version of Othello.)
Starfish
@satby: They may be running commercials while other candidates are not?
Starfish
@OzarkHillbilly: Rowling is a liar who stole the concept of a black Hermione from the fandom. The character from the Hunger Games was black in the books.
Kathleen
@OzarkHillbilly: Considering it’s the Intercept I’m assuming Russia is not supporting Bloomberg.
Baud
@randy khan:
Is that really a Black History Month thing, though, when the underlying work hasn’t been adapted in any way?
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
I think at least one the illustrations depicted Hermione as white. Over Rowling’s objections, no doubt.
Princess
@Jeffro: I think his supporters are beginning to realize it and it is why they are so angry, despite doing fine in Iowa and expecting to do fine in NH.
SFAW
@Starfish:
To go along with the underlying concept that she appropriated. [Yes, I’m aware she won the lawsuit filed against her.]
OzarkHillbilly
Antarctica logs hottest temperature on record with a reading of 18.3C
Those Chinese are going too damned far with this hoax of theirs.
MomSense
Things don’t look good for Buttigieg and Warren in SC. They are both in the single digits. Nevada was looking ok for Warren – she was third but that was before the mess with her campaign there. Buttigieg is taking voters from Biden and that is very bad news for anyone who thinks Sanders is a disaster. Sanders is set to do very well on Super Tuesday. This is a nightmare of a primary.
Amir Khalid
@SFAW:
Rowling said her only physical description of Hermione in the books says she has frizzy hair. Rowling had no problem with a black actress playing the adult Hermione in the premier production of the play Harry Potter and The Cursed Child.
Butter Emails
@OzarkHillbilly:
If this were a university assignment, scholarly article or paper, footnotes would have been insufficient given the quantity of material appropriated.
zzyzx
@Starfish: From the interviews I’ve read it was less, “Yes, of course, she was black all along! Why didn’t you know that?” and more, “You know, once she was cast I realized that my actual description didn’t preclude her being that ethnicity, so, sure, why not?”
Rowling didn’t cast the play. She just respected the choice that they made.
Ken
@SFAW: When someone claimed that the Potter books and character were similar to Gaiman’s Books of Magic, Gaiman said,
Seems reasonable to me.
Shalimar
@Amir Khalid: Does anyone think Bloomberg is doing his own homework? He has campaign staff writing/plagiarizing this. His entire lifetime as a manager suggests he actually listens, so I assume he will understand policy. I do not expect I will agree with most of his policy choices.
satby
@MomSense: well, polls haven’t been very indicative so far.
Anne Laurie
Those classics B&N (with only the best intentions!) re-covered are out of copyright.
Costs much more to pay Angelou or Coates for their work.
I’m assuming this was meant to be a Black History Month promo geared to having ‘youth groups’ buy bulk packs for redistribution. Strictly a short-term impulse buy, like the Valentine-themed cards and chocolates stacked by the checkout lines.
Immanentize
I feel like I am being chased from this blog by earlier and earlier second morning posts. When is on the road coming back?
Amir Khalid
@Baud:
The enrolment at Hogwarts is racially diverse in the books and the movies. I gather that’s just what Britain looks like these days.
satby
@Immanentize: Alain said he was taking a week off, so next week probably.
OzarkHillbilly
@Starfish: @SFAW: What Rowling said was that Hermione’s race was never mentioned. Black, white, Asian… That she could have been any race. The fact that she was a Muggle is a bit of a tell that whatever else, she was not acceptable to those who cared about these things.
Shalimar
@Ken: You remember correctly, it was one of the supporting characters in the first Hunger Games movie, Rue.
Baud
@Amir Khalid:
Well you figure the Patel sisters were not white.
I’m not saying that Hermione has to be or was written as white. Just that presuming her to be white is less unreasonable than in the average context.
Amir Khalid
@Shalimar: Bloomberg’s staff, who cribbed all this material, are also the ones who explain it to him. If they don’t have a deep grasp of the stuff, neither will he.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud:
I think we’re having a hard time believing that it’s really possible to win this one. In the sense of actually having someone other than Trump assume the Presidency in 2021. Who knows if enough of the democratic process really remains that we can do this, even if the people prefer our candidate to Trump?
Trump is going to use the power of the presidency to smear, harass, maybe even imprison our nominee no matter who it is, and it takes a lot to get past that. He may even have already done a lot to select his opponent, if Biden’s underperformance in Iowa happened because of anxiety about Hunter Biden and Ukraine.
If we had a dynamite, Obama-level charismatic candidate it’d likely be possible to rack up enough support to get past this, but we don’t have one. Sanders’ core fans believe he’s that, but he’s not.
Baud
@satby: Agree. Polls seem all over the place.
Butter Emails
@Amir Khalid:
Hermione’s oversized incisors are also described in the books. I was also under the impression that Hermione was Rowling’s admitted quasi Author Avatar/Mary Sue.
Another Scott
@satby: ‘morning satby. I hope you, your store, and your fanimals are doing well.
Yeah, we could do much, much worse than Pete. Thanks for your patience in continuing to remind us of that.
It’s still very early. We’ll see what happens.
Cheers,
Scott.
OzarkHillbilly
@Butter Emails: Yeah well what do I fucking know. I’m just a dumb ass carpenter who spent 35 years building shit that rich fucks who don’t know how to swing a hammer claimed they had built.
SFAW
@Amir Khalid:
I don’t think Rowling’s comment is quite accurate, but it’s her series, so whatever. Whether Hermione was/is black, or white, or brown, or whatever, is immaterial to the character. Although I’ve never heard “frizzy” used vis-a-vis blacks, but maybe I just need to get out more.
Ken
Rumor has it that some of the Brexit support was from racists who didn’t like how Britain looks these days. That captures the deep thinking we’ve all come to associate with racists, since the diversity is that of British citizens, and not due to EU “foreigners” living and working in the country.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
We constantly tell Dems fight more. We should stop doing that if we are going to shit our pants whenever there’s a fight.
Not directed at you.
Elizabelle
There’s a new musical, called “Six” about the many wives of Henry 8th, and they’ve done amazing cross cultural casting. Kind of fun; envisions the wives as pop stars competing in a talent show; each gets a song at the mike.
Google it; you will see that Anne of Cleves (wife number 4, divorce) is always played by a black woman. Production I saw, Catherine of Aragon was Asian; Catherine Parr was a statuesque mocha skinned beauty. They have a great number — Haus of Holbein (a la Dieter and Sprockets) about Anne not matching her portrait.
Also, was glad to see Bosch on Amazon doing some unusual (and worked out great!) casting. Irv Irving in the books is definitely a white Mr. Clean lookalike (he’s described that way) and a nemesis and spoiler (most of the time), whereas the series has an incredibly handsome and tall black guy in the role, and he’s more of a good guy.
Catch up, publishing.
Another Scott
@SFAW: Amy K. did the I’m from the MidWest and we’re the best, suck it coastal looooosssers! shtick far too much for my taste, also too.
I assume both of them were just pandering to the rubes in Iowa, like every candidate does (to greater or lesser extent).
It can only work for one of them, obviously.
Cheers,
Scott.
SFAW
@Ken:
Google mentions the name Adrian Jacobs. I also recall stories about how Rowling lifted terms like “Muggle” (or maybe something else?), as well as various characters, from the Jacobs book. Based on the contemporaneous accounts, it seemed that Jacobs’s claim(s) had some merit, but memory fades. [This was 10 or 15 years ago, at least, that I heard the report/stories.]
That said, the Harry Potter saga was/is great, and Rowling did a pretty good job, and I don’t recall too many deus ex machina plot points (which is pretty good for a seven-part series).
Elizabelle
We have some amazing winds passing through central VA. The clouds are flying. Windchimes symphony.
Good day to be on terra firma.
MomSense
Just found out I have a snow day! More like an ice storm day, but I need it. My candle’s been burning at both ends for so long I’m down to just wick.
schrodingers_cat
@Elizabelle: ABBS Anybody but BS from Vt.
Immanentize
@MomSense: Ice day? it’s 38 here on your side of Boston. No snow. No ice. Although yesterday was slushy.
Baud
@MomSense: I’m happy for you. Hope your power stays on.
Elizabelle
@MomSense: Wishing you a lovely and sane day, with Korra, knitting, and lots of restorative hot tea or whatever you like.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat: Yeah, that works.
And I loved your “leap year Democrat” quip. One for the books!
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Baud: I once heard Linda Sue Park (who’s of Korean descent) respond to authors who say they just won’t identify their characters’ race, so the character could be anything. She said that at least in the US, if you don’t identify race, your character is white. That’s because if you’re not white in the US, you have to think about race with some frequency.
YA books increasingly include many characters of color, though they’re often secondary.
Amir Khalid
@OzarkHillbilly:
It’s also worth mentioning that Hermione, whatever we take her race to be, herself suffers bigotry from Purebloods at Hogwarts like Draco Malfoy who despise her for her Muggle origins.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Agreed. Excellent quip. Biden should use it.
MomSense
@Immanentize:
Yesterday I drove to and from work through an obstacle course of cars and trucks off the road. Unfortunately there were also ambulances and stretchers and cars that looked so bad that I am terrified for the people in them.
We are hovering at 30-31 and it’s sleezing. My car is covered in a thick coating of ice. Not sure I could open the door to start the car.
Immanentize
@MomSense: That happened to me once — in Texas driving from Texarkana to Waco. Worst ice storm I have ever been in. Cars were flying off the road like the Red Sea parting. I just kept chugging along at about 35 mph. Got to Waco, alive. Ice had stopped. I pulled into a pizza restaurant for lunch and a beer. Waco is a friggin’ dry town! Never was I happier to reach Austin later that day.
Stay safe up there. And defeat Collins.
SFAW
@Amir Khalid:
Fortunately,
ScheissgibbonVoldemort said he had plenty ofblackMuggle friends, and would not do anything to harm themGBVA
@Another Scott:
Gotta disagree here. Pete’s the American Macron. Or rather, Pete would be the American Macron, if his nomination didn’t ultimately depend on the support of nonwhite and younger voters, the vast majority of whom actively detest his particularly unctuous, millenial brand of careerism and ideological fluidity. The party is rife with African-American and Latinx activists warning that his candidacy constitutes a huge middle finger to their constituencies, and that choosing him to lead the party would drive down turnout and doom us to 4 more years. I for one am loathe to ignore them.
Beyond that, though, as a progressive a genuinely believe Pete’s presidency would be a disaster for the Democrats, much in the same way Macron’s has been for the center-left in France. Pete makes a lot of nebulous gestures at progressive goals–expand health care! do something about climate change!–but in instances where he offers substantive proposals to attain them they are often, like Macron’s infamous gas tax, disproportionately punitive to working and middle income citizens. Take all the stories yesterday about Pete’s healthcare plan, and its professed intention to dramatically expand the single most unpopular element of the ACA–the individual mandate and its associated tax penalty–and potentially leave the uninsured on the hook for thousands of dollars. It’s tone deaf technocracy at its worst, and precisely the kind of stuff that’s driven Macron’s approval #’s into second term GWB territory. No thanks.
Kathleen
@rikyrah: It is so hard for the political propatainment complex to let go of the white states.
Immanentize
I think worrying about who will drop out or win the nomination is pointless until after Super Tuesday. I doubt anyone will drop out before then. If Biden does drop out, who gets his votes? Does he support someone else? Specifically NOT support Sanders? Same for Warren. And everyone else. And what if Sanders has another health episode? This thing is far from over. I am looking forward to unplugging from March 12 to April 6. But who knows, maybe my ship will be quarantined and I will be out of touch until May? That could be a blessing….
MomSense
@Immanentize:
The tide shifted on Collins. Media coverage changed and I absolutely think it is the result of her interview with Mal Leary two days ago. He’s a very familiar presence in Maine. He was so measured and calm in the way he asked her basic questions which made her response so revealing. We all feel like Mal is a friend. He also happens to be a wonderful person.
https://www.mainepublic.org/post/sen-collins-her-decision-vote-acquittal-and-what-she-hearing-constituents
Jeffro
@Elizabelle: Yup! It was getting so noisy out there earlier this morning that the dog nosed her way into our bedroom and curled up right next to my side of the bed!
I was like, “it’s ok…it’s just a little storm…” petpetpetpetpet :)
Betty Cracker
We had a huge storm last night and a good bit of damage. Lost electricity for several hours, but that’s back on now, thank dog. About 3/4 of our fences were blown over, so the dogs can’t go out except on leashes because I don’t want them on the riverbank. (Gators aren’t usually around this part of the river until spring and summer, but I’m not taking any chances.) The house is okay as far as I can tell.
A big sweet gum tree at the property line in the water fell over, and half of it is in our jon boat. As good luck would have it, the mister had the outboard off and in the garage to change the foot oil; otherwise, the motor, which is fairly new, might have been damaged because the tree fell across the stern. The boat should be fine; it’s one of those indestructible metal tubs my dad has used at his marina since the 1970s. Didn’t look cracked or bent when I inspected it.
The storm came through last night just before midnight, and I watched from the porch until the wind got scary enough to drive me inside. It was amazing! The lightning lit up the horizon like daytime. Even with that, I had no idea how much damage was being done until this morning. The pooches are very crabby about the leash thing.
Baud
@MomSense:
Aside from the presidency and McConnell, beating Collins is the outcome I want most in November.
Betty
Pete says nice words in a soothing tone, but his very fluidity on he issues, such as health care, would seem to indicate that he has not thought deeply about the key issues – very superficial.
Kathleen
@satby: I’ve concluded the constant breathless poll reporting is intended to confuse and divide us. There seems to be a need for the political propatainment complex to frenetically hype Sanders.
MomSense
@Baud:
Me too! At least I don’t feel so alone in my disgust with Collins. I think that people started really paying attention and realized how manipulative she has been. It is now common to hear people say that she only votes with progressives if the bill is either doomed to fail or will pass easily. In other words she votes with democrats when it doesn’t make a difference. Planned Parenthood finally figured out she is not our friend which helps with women voters. The other thing is that she has changed her phone protocols so it has been almost impossible to even leave a message at her local offices. This has been terrible for her constituent services – which was the only thing even I will concede she was good at.
This is personal for me. Her uncle was a close family friend and a well respected attorney, legislator, and Justice. He made a huge difference in my dad’s life, including helping him find his avocation.
MomSense
@Betty Cracker:
I’m glad you are all ok. When I visited my dad in Florida, he took me to so many gator viewing places and they are terrifying. If your dogs realized what you were protecting them from, they wouldn’t complain one bit.
Dupe1970
@Baud: I really want a Warren surge. I view her as the least bad option at this point. But Buttigieg is ok if I can just get over my revulsion for McKinsey consultants….
Dupe1970
@OzarkHillbilly: I don’t mind him stealing plans but give people credit. Talk other people. A good manager knows to recognize good ideas and give credit which is why I am concerned about Bloomberg. I don’t think he is all that of a good manager.
Aleta
Fwiw, from Portland Press Herald
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Not a good plan. Main St. in Milwaukee is only a few blocks long and far west of downtown. Unless your real goal is to just go to the Bull Shooter Tavern – in which case, just go there; it’s Milwaukee after all.
Elizabelle
@Jeffro: Now we’ve got an amazing rainbow out there.
Aleta
@Betty Cracker: That’s intense. Sorry about your tree and fences. For some reason I like seeing those banged-up indestructible metal boats. I guess because you can see in them collisions with rocks and underwater logs that didn’t end them, and because around here the people who use them are (don’t know how to describe it so I’ll call them) kinetic and interacting with the wild world.
satby
@GBVA: got a link for those assertions? Because on the candidate’s website describing his health care proposals, it doesn’t say he’d pay for it that way, it specifically states rolling back the Trump tax cuts would pay for most of it, with some additional costs covered by going after pharmaceutical companies both by increasing taxes and discounts on governmental purchases /reimbursements.
WaterGirl
@Aleta: Your comment at #139 went into moderation because you had somehow appended the word “Those” at the end of your email address.
If you haven’t already noticed that and corrected it, you’ll want to fix that in the browser you posted in.I see that you have already fixed it, so I deleted the duplicate comment after I approved it.
Jeffro
@Elizabelle: good but also a bummer, I’m stuck inside for the next few hours…oh well…
satby
@Betty Cracker: glad the damage seems minimal! Trees coming down can do very bad things to houses.
mali muso
@Elizabelle: Thanks for that! I loved the short film and this was a lovely article. As a white mom of a biracial little girl, I have been learning so much about hair care and trying really hard to do right by her.
satby
@MomSense: I hope she’s tossed out by your neighbors this November.
GBVA
@satby:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/buttigieg-health-plan-hinges-on-supercharged-version-of-unpopular-obamacare-mandate/2019/12/24/415ae876-21bb-11ea-9146-6c3a3ab1be6c_story.html
The plan automatically enrolls the uninsured, and then it charges them the cost of their premiums as a penalty at the end of the year if they don’t pay. Which, sure,t nominally achieves the goal of insuring all Americans. But how many millions of people who don’t follow politics are going to ignore these premium bills when they start to pile up because they did not ask for insurance and don’t trust it? It’s a disaster and yet another debt crisis waiting to happen.
Betty Cracker
WaterGirl
@Baud: It’s funny because they are so stupid. But it’s beyond insulting, and demeaning. Here’s your lollipop (black people on the covers) so be a good girl/boy and go away now.
satby
@GBVA: so when you read his proposal, it also states that they would include and expand the current subsidies now in the ACA. But to be fair, I can’t read your whole link because I’m not a WaPo subscriber. And, all proposals are aspirational, including Vermont Trump’s; since anything proposed has to get through Congress. Bernie keeps glossing over that bit though.
edited to bold the significant part.
Elizabelle
@satby: I will email you the text of the WaPost article.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker: But blue skies today. And maybe gators, right under the surface.
Glad you moved your outboard.
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: I noticed 3 tweets from the same person. What do we know about Marcus H. Johnson and where he’s coming from?
WaterGirl
@SFAW: I don’t do social media, either, but I feel like I get a whole lot of it on Balloon Juice these days. It’s like second-hand smoke used to be. It’s everywhere.
O. Felix Culpa
@MomSense: Part of me worries that we will repeat what happened in the 2016 Republican primary: too many candidates splitting the vote, so the worst (most demagogic) person wins. Not sure what the other part of me thinks.
WaterGirl
@satby: The Pod Save America guys were saying last night that the race is now Bernie’s to lose as he is the clear front runner. It was terribly depressing.
Since when do even the good guys declare the race ABO (all but over) when only one tiny white state has voted? In a caucus, no less.
satby
@WaterGirl: bio here
WaterGirl
@A Ghost To Most:
Barcelona Barbie?
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Fucking panic.
satby
@WaterGirl: it just disgusts me that after seeing the cost of an incompetent con man in the White House that people seem ready to vote another incompetent con man in.
Elizabelle
@WaterGirl:
@O. Felix Culpa: Agreed. MomSense’s comment last night about her sons’ perception of the race: I thought “that’s social media driven” and it’s terrible, because it distorts what is actually happening.
Mostly, this campaign has been way too long, and it is distressing to finally be waiting to vote and favorite candidates are running short of money. We could do better with shorter, publicly funded campaigns (after full disclosure), free TV — they’re public airwaves — and ditch Iowa and NH going first.
This feels like a tragedy happening in slow motion, but maybe not …
satby
@WaterGirl: yeah, it should have been Barcelona Betty (so sorry Elizabelle ?)
debbie
@MomSense:
Nice long weekend!
Elizabelle
@satby: LOL. I saw it, and was wondering if Ghost really wanted to say Becky. Was not sure if it was snark or what, so left it.
But … Barcelona. Never a bad time to think of that beautiful city. And Catalunya.
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin:
I think Buttigieg has that more than anyone who is still in the race. Not Obama-level, but it’s there, and I think it goes a long way toward explaining his current success.
Also, I think Buttigieg’s strategy of telling people who he is and what he believes in – before putting out specific policy statements or plans – worked, too.
mapaghimagsik
@Baud:
Huh. Not tracking with my experience of Britain, but the only Scotsman I know thinks Brexit is a good idea.
@Amir Khalid:
I distinctly remember that description and thought, “Hey…” I didn’t actually go back and look for skin tones, though.
mrmoshpotato
@WaterGirl: But Watergirl, less than 2% of the electorate has voted, and then, not really, because it was a caucus and whatever. The rest of us should just throw in the towel. /S
satby
@satby: oops, there’s two of them, so this guy
Elizabelle
@satby: Thank you. Marcus sounds like a cool guy, but the posts rikyrah has been putting up sound blowhardish.
mrmoshpotato
@MomSense: Wheeee!! Ice sledding time!
mapaghimagsik
@satby:
Never you fret. They’ll vote the same one in.
satby
@Elizabelle: depending on how November goes, I may be hauling ass back to Barcelona pretty quickly next January.
WaterGirl
@Baud: That would be right up there with a noun, a verb, and 911.
Jinchi
I think this race will be down to at most two viable candidates after Super Tuesday. Democratic voters like their field of candidates and they’re eager to choose someone to take on Trump. That means they’ll switch to one of the leaders if their own favorite can’t win.
Elizabelle
@satby: Oh dear. I was more disposed to like the Baruch Marcus Johnson.
Anyway, blowhard, and anyone can say anything on Twitter. We tend to see a lot of disembodied and depressing stuff from there.
The blowhard quotes strike me as “I am holding this person down as hard as I can and look — no traction in the polls.”
Anyway, I will take actual voting (primaries, please) over polls and twitter any day of the week. And remember, this site is not the whole of reality. More like a sports blog where our shared hobby is politics.
debbie
Ick on all ice storms. February 1, 2011: The day of two separate ice storms. I had just started a part-time second shift job and when I left it to go home at 9pm, the ice was even thicker than the ice I’d scraped off that afternoon. I got impatient with all the chipping and pulled the windshield wiper off the ice, only to leave most of it stuck to the windshield. Luckily it was the passenger-side wiper. Lesson learned.
Elizabelle
@satby: Yeah. I have been thinking that for a while. Sigh.
NotMax
@Elizabelle
These days, Always Bring Booze.
;)
satby
@Elizabelle: very true.
WaterGirl
@MomSense: In what way do you think it has shifted? I read the article at the link, but I loathe Collins so much that I can’t bear to listen to her talk.
germy
Jerzy Russian
@Betty Cracker:
Do gators lurk by the banks underwater and launch themselves at their prey like crocodiles do? I remember seeing a nature show years ago about the crocodiles in Australia and it was mentioned that the crocs can “leap” a substantial fraction of their own lengths when attacking their victims in this manner. That is a scary though considering how long some of them can get.
GBVA
@satby: Right but I don’t think there’s really any precedent for suddenly beginning to send millions of heretofore uninsured Americans bills for healthcare they did not enroll themselves in, nor what’s going to happen to those people who end up in arears to the federal government. By all accounts though, almost all of them would be working class–i.e. eligible for modest subsidies but not enough to render insurance feasible for one reason or another. This is precisely the demographic that shattered the democratic electoral coalition in 2016. I think it’s a really bad idea but ymmv!
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: I’m sorry to hear about all the damage, and I’m sorry to hear about the tree you lost, because they are not easily replaced, at least not in stature! Yay for the motor, and for that fact that you guys are fine.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: The blue of the water is so gorgeous, and with the green it makes a lovely scene. So was your sweet gum a little tree, more easily replaced? Or was that just a branch that we see in the photo?
Elizabelle
@NotMax: Yesh. And you all have been very good at recommending good ones to try. Buffalo Trace. Basil Hayden.
NotMax
Bands of rain passing through here, beginning yesterday and continuing through Tuesday. Upper 50s temps at the moment. Brr.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax:
Time to dust off a pair of jeans! :)
Betty Cracker
@Jerzy Russian: Gators do lurk and launch at prey, but they aren’t nearly as aggressive as crocs. I don’t worry about gators for myself and other adult humans, just the dogs (and children when present). Gator attacks on humans are really rare; I’m guessing cows are more of a menace, statistically speaking! :-)
@WaterGirl: It was a large tree that was on our property line and a few feet in the water. A big branch fell in the boat (pictured), but luckily, most of it fell in the water.
I was out again to double-check the roof line, which seems fine, and I noticed the tops of a few of the big trees are twisted and bare, so I’m guessing we got a micro-cell or small tornado. Glad it wasn’t worse!
As for the tree in the boat, I’m sorry it’s gone because the more trees the merrier in my book. But this is a heavily wooded area, so from an aesthetic point of view, losing one is no big deal.
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
Fie on that. Fleecy bathrobe along with house slippers. No reason to go outdoors.
Should it not warm up much once the sun comes up might opt to turn on the space heater for the first time this winter. Cottage doesn’t retain the heat very well (no insulation, drafty jalousie windows) but running that for a while does enough to chase the edge off the chill.
satby
@GBVA: Well, Elizabelle very kindly sent me the article and the tone and conclusions aren’t that negative. But the Libertarians don’t like it because, let’s face it, they don’t believe in universal health coverage paid for through any taxes, and the left wing think tank guy doesn’t like it because it potentially may cost some upper income people not eligible for subsidies money I guess, even though they would have been insured the entire time (and for less per month on average than a private insurance policy would cost). PLus, you know, everyone would have the option in enrolling in whatever insurance they want.
this way the Libertarian assholes who crash their Harleys while not wearing helmets (ask me how I know about this) are covered for their hundreds of thousands of dollars in medical care when it happens. NOpe, not shedding tears on this. And again, proposals are aspirational, the laws that result are sausage.
J R in WV
@Immanentize:
When Alain feels capable of undertaking that task again, we all hope soon. Like many of us from time to time , his life got more complicated than he expected.
Caphilldcne
@OzarkHillbilly: as a person who has worked for non-profits I will frankly say I want candidates to steal our policy platforms verbatim. And I don’t care if they are not footnoted. However if they are elected I *will* hold them to those positions.