Global numbers on coronavirus as it stands:
• Total confirmed cases globally: 28,273 cases, 565 deaths
• Mainland China: 28,018 cases, 563 deaths
• Outside mainland China: 260 cases in more than 25 places, 2 deathshttps://t.co/nuHTiW3ZpI— CNN (@CNN) February 6, 2020
The patients most affected by the new coronavirus seem to be middle-aged and older men. The least affected: children. https://t.co/OyGvhzgT09
— New York Times World (@nytimesworld) February 6, 2020
I talked to @seattlebryn @thedailybeast about #nCoV2019 #coronavirus. Ignore the screaming DEATH SENTENCE? subheading. This is a nicely balanced piece on what we might expect in the days ahead (also featuring @KindrachukJason @BogochIsaac @mtosterholm) https://t.co/hTh9pZm00C
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) February 5, 2020
…“I think at this point, containment is already a lost cause,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
Osterholm’s comments echoed grim realism from health officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on a call with reporters early this week.
Although the disease’s severity appears to be lower than once feared, Osterholm said the 2019 novel coronavirus’s transmission patterns so far are reminiscent of influenza. “To the extent that we have to deal with this, if this in fact is being transmitted like influenza, then there really isn’t much chance to contain it,” he said. “We can surely minimize transmission in health care facilities and some public spaces. But beyond that, this virus is going to kind of do what it damn pleases.”
Several other experts, while offering somewhat more optimistic outlooks, agreed that the world was entering a critical phase that will determine—over the next few weeks —whether the epidemic that has spread from China to at least two dozen other countries goes nuclear.
One key variable driving the epidemic’s potential severity is whether epidemiologists see ongoing, sustained transmission of the virus to people with no travel history to China or clear connections to others who have been there. So far, most of the human-to-human spread beyond China has been limited to close contacts of infected patients, which some researchers have pointed to as a hopeful sign.
“If this remains limited in nature, the epidemic can be contained,” said Jason Kindrachuk, an expert on emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, in an email to The Daily Beast. “If we start seeing sustained human-to-human transmission outside of China, there will likely be some pretty quick revisiting of current screening procedures,” he added…
Tempering reports that the outbreak may be considerably larger than initially thought, emerging data also suggest that it may be less deadly than other recent outbreaks. A Feb. 3 report from the South China Morning Post, for example, suggested that the more than 5,000 reported cases in Wuhan by that point were “just the tip of the iceberg” due to a shortage of testing kits in the outbreak’s epicenter (several modeling studies have likewise pointed to much higher numbers). The report, however, also suggests that the true proportion of fatal cases—officially hovering around 3 percent for the city and surrounding Hubei province—might be significantly lower since milder cases would be more likely to go undiagnosed…
.@WHO is looking for $675M to help countries prepare in the event China can't contain #2019nCoV. @DrTedros remarked that while it might seem like a lot of money, the alternative would be more expensive. "Invest today or pay more later." https://t.co/tAZdXycXZ9
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 5, 2020
Data suggests virus infections under-reported, exaggerating fatality rate https://t.co/GYDT3l2jKU pic.twitter.com/1pMgsFdUdV
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 5, 2020
Saudi Arabia bans its citizens and residents of the Kingdom from traveling to China amid the #coronavirus outbreak.https://t.co/fxxickh8Rx
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) February 6, 2020
Qantas is being accused of 'heavy-handed' tactics over health concerns with the Corona-virus. | @nat_forrest pic.twitter.com/WwcI9uBOkX
— 10 News First Perth (@10NewsFirstPER) February 6, 2020
2. #2019nCoV: China reported 3694 new cases for Feb. 5. It reported 3887 new cases for Feb. 4.
This is the first time the new case number hasn't jumped. BUT:
It could be a blip.
It could be a function of how many tests the lab could run.
Do not assume.— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 5, 2020
4. #2019nCoV: There were 73 deaths reported on Feb. 5, bringing the death toll to 563 in mainland China (including, because they do, Hong Kong, Macau & Taiwan).
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 5, 2020
Chinese authorities vow to speed up diagnosis of cases suspected of novel #coronavirus infection and improve admission of confirmed patients pic.twitter.com/ePdTaQxzf6
— China Xinhua News (@XHNews) February 6, 2020
With Wuhan on lockdown and food scarcity becoming a concern, authorities are scrambling to deliver necessities into the epicentre of the #coronavirus outbreak. pic.twitter.com/VJsDeLjysN
— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) February 6, 2020
Really interesting details in this piece about the limited independence that Chinese journalists have been able to exercise in covering the coronavirus: https://t.co/ryAQeLqiQf pic.twitter.com/olDgOZ5F6y
— Matt Pearce ?? (@mattdpearce) February 6, 2020
As several high-profile projects postpone their release dates and others delay production amid the novel #coronavirus crisis, China’s TV and film industry is facing an unprecedented standstill.https://t.co/jXcLYZk6yr
— Sixth Tone (@SixthTone) February 6, 2020
JPL
Good Morning.
Steeplejack (phone)
@JPL:
Good morning. ?
YY_Sima Qian
Very glad to see pieces and commentaries in MSM that address China and the CCP regime as they are, rather than as imagined. It has been sorely lacking in the past three years. I hope They are longer lived than the current relative openness with in China.
Princess
This drone-shot video of Wuhan and series of short interviews, from the NYT, are very interesting:
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000006936419/coronavirus-china-wuhan.html?playlistId=video/asia-pacific
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
So it mostly kills old white men….how long before the right wing conspiracy mill craps out that this is a Chinese plot to kill off Trump voters and thereby rig the next election?
low-tech cyclist
All of a sudden a cynical part of my soul is rooting for the damned virus. It would certainly improve the quality of our electorate!
And I say this even though I’m a man in my mid-60s.
Marigold
@YY_Sima Qian: I meant to reply to your post yesterday, but thank you for sharing your experiences with us.
One of our suppliers at work is located in Hubei province, and while I don’t have direct dealings with anyone there, I worry about them like I do the jackals here. You (and the poor purchasing guy I bother) have helped a lot.
Hope you and your family continue to be healthy and safe.
La Gata Gris
Sadly Dr. Li Wenliang, one of the doctors in Wuhan who was a whistleblower about the virus (and was harassed by police as a result) has died from coronavirus: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/whistleblower-chinese-doctor-dies-from-coronavirus
At least so far it looks like the fatality rate for the virus is still hovering roughly around 2%.
YY_Sima Qian
@La Gata Gris: Such a tragedy… Chinese social media are flooded with people posting condolences and memorials. It’s like all the pent up frustrations, fear, sorrow and anguish suddenly have crystallized and found an outlet that everyone can share. Even state media personalities are joining in.
A lot of people sharing the Solzhenitsyn’s quote:” We know they are lying, they know that they are lying. They know that we know that they are lying, we know that they know that we know that they are lying. Yet they continue to lie.”
The outpouring of emotions has not yet turned toward the central leadership, but it will be interesting to see how the government censors respond.