There was a post the other day with this recommendation from HRC:
Try to vote for the person you think is most likely to win because at the end of the day that is what will matter. And not just the popular vote, but the electoral college too.
Well, OK, how do I do that? Do I become a mini-pundit and have an imaginary Cletus safari to some diner in Ohio or Wisconsin where I imagine which candidate will appeal to the Obama/Trump voters there? Or should I instead take a stroll down 12th Ave in Tucson, stopping in a few restaurants on the way (yum) and interviewing some non-voting latinos to see which candidate would motivate them to go the polls? And even if my little made-up thief sample of voters yielded a clear answer about which candidate is most likely to win, can I trust it?
Every person reading this blog is in many ways unable to determine who will win because we aren’t the kinds of voters who need to be persuaded to turn out, or to change their vote. Most of us will crawl over broken glass to vote for whomever the Democrats nominate. We are not the voters who need to be convinced to vote for a Democrat, or even to vote. So, for many primary voters like us, this exercise of imagining who can win is pointless – we just lack the imagination to do it. Our brains don’t work the way theirs do. We’re not better or worse, just different.
Instead of trying to pick a winner, my suggestion is to choose a candidate that speaks to you, but try not to get too hung up on your chosen candidate. Pretty much anyone who didn’t buy their way on the debate stage the other night could beat Trump under the right circumstances. Hell, Corey Booker and Kamala Harris could have beaten him. With the right six sigma strategy and a good SWOT analysis, even Pete might get it done. So, if your candidate isn’t the final winner, don’t look for a fucking conspiracy, and don’t listen to the conspiracy mongers. They’re the ones that will cause real damage to the party, not Democrats who pick a candidate because they like their message without worrying about whether they can win.