Commenter Jay Noble is wondering about those drone formations that are being seen over thinly-populated areas of Colorado and Nebraska. So am I. Jay did the research, and I did a little more, so here’s what we know and don’t know, mostly the latter.
Since about the middle of December, about 17 drones, with six-foot wingspans, have been operating in grid patterns from 7 to 10 at night in this area. The brightly lit drones fly at about 100 feet in the air. A little bit of video here, but lights in the night sky aren’t particularly interesting.
Whoever is operating the drones hasn’t spoken up, so there is much speculation as to their purpose. The FAA and FBI are investigating.
The grid-like flight patterns suggest a search or assessment mission. One hypothesis on a dicey website (not gonna link) and apparently spreading is that they are searching for a lost nuclear warhead from one of the missile silos in the area. I’ll bet money that’s not the case. The last time the Air Force lost a missile warhead, the preceding events were quite obvious. It was in 1980, in Damascus, Arkansas, and the warhead was lost because the missile underneath it blew up.
Speculations also include that one or more of the military bases in the area (Colorado Springs, Offutt Air base) is testing a drone operation. This seems unlikely, because the military has plenty of controlled air space in which to do such a thing. Also unlikely, but possible, is that one of the military units is working this without authorization. A Facebook friend of Jay’s speculates that it’s a classified technology; a “target item” is emplaced in a large search area during the day, and the search takes place in the night.
A hobbyist could be playing around, or a commercial operation could be mapping or conducting other types of reconnaissance.
Law enforcement met to coordinate Monday night, January 6, and told the public to be on the watch for the control vehicle, likely a large van or box trailer. They are advising people not to shoot the drones down, which may be illegal.
It looks like the civilian authorities genuinely do not know what the drones are up to or who is behind them. If it’s the military, this is unconscionable. They have other places to test such things. Or they could announce that they’re doing a test.
If it’s a private organization or hobbyist, they may be violating the law.
Stay tuned.
Major Major Major Major
I saw that! Good times in our cyberpunk dystopia. This is only going to get worse.
Ryan
You better watch out, you better not cry. you better not pout I’m telling you why…
The Moar You Know
My background as an R/C pilot may come in handy here. A lot of farmers use some pretty deluxe R/C aircraft using GPS controllers, that look exactly as you describe, to survey cropland. The altitude they’re also working at fits that. They’re probably doing day/night temperature comparisons or other things that require infrared (hence night operations).
JGabriel
Cheryl Rofer @ Top:
Is it possible that it’s a hostile state actor, like Russia, testing the limits of how much they can get away with before being a) noticed, and b) caught?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Major Major Major Major:
Totally. Randos spying on people with drones is probably already a problem
Kent
It has to be commercial of some sort.
I’m sort of in tune with the recreational drone community and they are mostly into photography. Flying over interesting scenic features or urban areas and getting good pictures and video. I can’t imagine any reason why recreational drone enthusiasts would be doing large patterned formations over grids of nondescript farmland in the plains.
Some companies must be doing some sort of mapping or resource prospecting. That’s the only thing that makes sense. The commercial drone version of the google cars that go everywhere
I could visualize some large agribusiness doing private surveys of potential land acquisitions and doing it via drone rather than driving around during the day in company cars.
The Dangerman
Cows With
GunsDronesETA: in a hurry, so I’ll leave the search for the classic “Cows With Guns” to others.
Adam L Silverman
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@The Moar You Know:
@Kent:
Interesting. Wouldn’t a company doing an operation like this have to register it with the FAA? Drones this large and performing formations described above should probably be regulated
Cheryl Rofer
@The Moar You Know: They need to be informing someone if that’s what they’re doing. And look at the coverage on the maps! Not just one farmer.
Cheryl Rofer
@JGabriel: Anything is possible. I tend to doubt that it’s a hostile power, but who knows these days.
Adam L Silverman
I agree with Cheryl that this isn’t DOD or one of the Services or even one of the units home stationed in the area. Everyone remembers the Jade Helm insanity and stupidity in Texas several years ago. If this is a US government test of some sort, I would be more likely to think it is DHS or one of DHS’s sub-departments. This sounds a lot like the unannounced to appropriate state and local law enforcement agencies DHS TSA tests several years back of placing explosives in air travelers bags after TSA clearance and check in on the departure end and seeing what happened on the arriving end. Unfortunately several innocent people wound up getting picked up by local police at airports around the country for having explosives in their checked baggage.
randy khan
First, it’s definitely against the law to shoot down a drone.
Second, a lot of agricultural and mapping uses of drones have them flying grid patterns as a way of making sure you cover all of the ground. Quite a few commercial drones can be preprogrammed to cover a specified area with a specified pattern.
The speeds are pretty high (70+ mph for one, according to the news report), but within the range allowed by the FAA for small drones, and the reported wingspan is potentially possible for a small drone as well (size is defined only by weight, not by dimensions). But night operation, operation beyond the line of sight of the operator, and operation of multiple drones by a single person all are activities that require the FAA’s okay. (Night operation waivers aren’t that hard to get, but you have to ask for them.)
Adam L Silverman
@randy khan:
What if I’m in a stand your ground state and I feel threatened? Asking for a bunch of nut jobs.
Kent
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Maybe they are registered with the FAA. As far as I know, they don’t have to file flight plans and that sort of thing. This could be some commercial surveying company that registered its drones in Illinois and is out in Nebraska doing surveying under some confidential commercial contract. I’m not aware of laws that that say that registered commercial drone companies have to keep the FAA informed of their daily activities.
Chief Oshkosh
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Typically only if they’re flying above 400 ft AGL
raven
@Adam L Silverman: Would a heatseeker work on one off them?
Kent
@Adam L Silverman: Drone? what drone? I was just out dove hunting and the damn thing flew into my line of sight.
different-church-lady
The drones are being flown by self-driving cars, which are being controlled by the claw-headed robot dogs, which are being controlled by the AI political trolls.
And it’s all because some asshole couldn’t get a date for the prom.
artem1s
jeebus I hate going there, but 9/11 started with a bunch of guys taking flying lessons in simulators in Minnesota and Florida.
Adam L Silverman
More seriously, and given what I’ve seen reported about how Nebraska law enforcement has responded to Colorado legalizing marijuana while Nebraska hasn’t, and despite what some of the area law enforcement officials in Nebraska are publicly saying, it would not surprise me to find out that this was being done by a Nebraska law enforcement agency or department within one in an attempt to try to see if anyone is trying bring marijuana across the state line from Colorado to Nebraska at night and on routes that are not otherwise patrolled because they aren’t public roads, interstates, and highways.
Adam L Silverman
@raven: I have no idea.
Major Major Major Major
It crossed my mind that it might be for mapping out pot farming operations, except that the feds seem not to be doing it. Doing that by helicopter was hazardous work, at least in CA. But they probably aren’t growing out in open farmland anyway.
Kent
@raven: Probably not. They are mostly electric motor powered. Probably don’t create much of a heat signature.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent:
John Revolta
They started in CO and are reported to be more than halfway across NE by now. I don’t think there’s anything nefarious going on but it ain’t no localized operation for sure.
Mr. Longform
Oh, come on – these are obviously Iranian terrorist bombers looking for target-rich areas in rural America. As soon as they find something worth bombing, watch out!
Cheryl Rofer
FAA Statement
Adam L Silverman
@different-church-lady:
Adam L Silverman
@different-church-lady:
Kent
There is a tremendous amount of consolidation happening in the agricultural sector. As smaller family farms go bankrupt, giant corporate operators are buying up huge tracts of land. Also big foreign corporations. Arab and Asian companies have been buying up American farmland as have Russian investors.
I would not be surprised if some really deep pocketed investor is behind this and just doing some sort of sophisticated survey work of potential properties. Some sort of big money operation buried deep under layers of shell corporations. That sort of thing.
Adam L Silverman
@different-church-lady: (last one, I promise)
chris
Someone is paying a fair amount of money for this. The local dollar store has little ten inch drones for $100, a six footer has to be a whole lot more. They can’t be that common, how hard would it be to find out who bought a fleet, A FLEET, of them?
randy khan
@Kent:
This is as good a guess as any. Once a drone is registered, that’s all you need to do in most cases. There is a process for operating drones within restricted air space, but if you operate elsewhere (like on the open prairie), you don’t have to tell anyone what you’re doing.
As I mentioned above, certain types of operation, including nighttime operation, require broad approval from the FAA, but once you have that approval you can operate within the parameters of whatever you requested without any further action and without prior notification.
trollhattan
Random things I know.
Drones over 250 g have to be registered with the FAA.
Civilian drones may weigh up to 55 pounds. That’s a lot of drone.
And quoting the FAA.
These flights seem to not be following several of the rules.
Searcher
@randy khan: What if your el cheapo drone wanders into the flight path of the more expensive drone, and an unfortunate collision occurs?
I’ve always been told that the smallest craft in a water way has the right of way, something something mumble mumble.
J R in WV
Could be treasure hunters seeking a meteorite, which can go for thousands of $$ per pound depending upon the composition of the rock from space. If it’s from Mars, or composed of gemstone crystals for just a couple of possibilities.
Or seeking a deposit of some rare mineral, we had an international mining company running around the neighborhood in SE AZ looking for something to make money on until very recently. They were using a helicopter dragging a geologic sensor package in broad daylight, but they already had BLM claims filed!
If someone wanted to keep their research secret until they can get options on property night flying drones would make sense. Not the right time of year for searching for pot farms…
randy khan
@trollhattan:
As the FAA passage you quote suggests, you can get waivers of a lot of the rules (actually all of them, although some are a lot easier than others). Night operation waivers are pretty easy to get.
randy khan
@Searcher:
Well, right now both drone operators are responsible for avoiding each other. This, I believe, is how it works for airplanes in general, although there are circumstances where it’s obvious one pilot is at fault.
One big issue for automated operation is figuring out how to make avoidance work automatically. It is not a trivial question.
Kent
@J R in WV: Eastern Colorado and western Nebraska is also probably way too arid for growing good pot. There is a reason why it is grown in Western Oregon and Northern California.
Eljai
Maybe someone is shooting a video.
JGabriel
@Cheryl Rofer: Yeah, I kind of thought I was on the paranoid side of speculation there myself, but with all the Russian electoral and cyber attacks that Republicans, Moscow Mitch, and the Trump administration, are already ignoring, it seemed like a question that might be worth considering. As you say, who knows these days?
Frankensteinbeck
One thing’s for sure: This is proof that Obama is a war criminal!
Keith P
My brother flies one of those big drones for a living….he does LIDAR surveying with it. I don’t think ground penetrating radar is at the point where you can run a grid of drones that high to look for gold reflections, but hey, maybe.
Calouste
The time of the night would suggest to me that they are looking for something that cools down slower (or faster) than the surrounding area after the sun has gone down. Although as most of that area is now covered in snow, they might not see much.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Frankensteinbeck:
This is evidence that Obama’s the antichrist and Trump is Christ reborn, trying to save us all!
/s
joel hanes
Fearless prediction:
It’s we’re going to find out it’s a wingnut militia, possibly of people like the Bundys, but with a bit more technical ability.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Apparently, George Lopez is being investigated by the Secret Service for a comment he made about Trump
Keith P
BTW: The 6 foot drone my brother runs cost $50k unassembled, $100k assembled. With 17 of those running, I’d suspect whoever is running them paid full price since they can afford 17 to begin with, but regardless, that’s a sizeable investment in hardware.
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman:
A) you stole my answer!!!!
B) In revenge, I am soooo stealing that picture!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
It’s not impossible that someone took their Bond villain act in some LARP a wee to far with this drones in formation stunt.
Another Scott
It might be related to this, but the time of year seems to be off.
Dunno.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
piratedan
guessing it’s the Cubans scouting landing sites for the Nicaraguans to invoke Putin’s Red Dawn….
Cornhuskers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
debbie
It’s clearly patriot militias getting ready to take over the country when Trump loses in November.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
The truth is out there, Scully
Arclite
The War Zone is a daily read for me.
mrmoshpotato
@trollhattan:
LOL
Roger Moore
@Adam L Silverman:
I’m also suspicious that it’s somehow related to drugs. I was thinking it might be DEA, but somebody in a neighboring state not wanting Colorado-grown pot getting into their state would also make sense. I could also easily see a law enforcement agency trying to keep this kind of thing secret, even from other law enforcement agencies.
mrmoshpotato
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Dammit Goku. Tom Araya is The Antichrist.
Jerry
@Calouste:
Looks like there isn’t much snow depth in Western Nebraska right now. See a current snow depth map here.
Yutsano
@Roger Moore: And if it is related to drugs: why now? Colorado has had legal Mary Jane since 2014. It’s only almost six years later that they’re suddenly concerned enough to buy a whole shit ton of expensive equipment for it?
Roger Moore
@randy khan:
And this kind of thing is likely to make FAA reconsider that. I’ve already heard they’re considering a requirement that drones have some kind of ID that will let the government figure out who’s responsible. That makes a lot of sense, not just for things like this that have the public puzzled and worried, but also for things like drones flying in restricted airspace, where they can be a serious safety hazard. I know there has been a series of incidents here in California where people flying drones have interfered with water dropping aircraft fighting wildfires, and people are really angry about it. We need a way of tracking down the perpetrators and/or adding charges if whoever is doing it turns their ID signal off.
planetjanet
I would expect that the grid formation would help them do 3D imaging of the land.
jimmiraybob
@Adam L Silverman:
Easy. Just shoot and start screaming “We The People.” It would help to have a TriCorn hat readily available.
On a side note, aren’t there heaps of nuclear missile silos in those wastelands?
Cheryl Rofer
@Another Scott: Scientists would have gone public, so that the drones don’t get shot down if nothing else.
Spanky
@Yutsano: It took this long for that sweet Homeland Security cash to get this far in from the coasts?
debbie
@Cheryl Rofer:
Anyone, not just scientists, acting reputably would have reported to the authorities.
randy khan
@Roger Moore:
I’m totally in favor of requiring some kind of automatic ID from drones. It’s going to be necessary when they start operating at long distances outside of the line of sight of the operators, and probably is necessary now. But I don’t think that leads to a system where operators need permission to fly in unrestricted airspace.
weavrmom
@Major Major Major Major: I’m sure it used to be dangerous to look for pot farms by helicopter in CA, but it’s so easy to spot them all now with Google Earth. I know this because I enjoy browsing rural real estate here, and many, many former pot farms have come on the market with the law changes, complete with the de-rigueur weed hanger and grower’s shack. These properties are generally a polluted, trashed mess, with owners having delusions of making a real-estate killing for their precious land in the middle of nowhere. I enjoy watching the prices tank over time, seeing if they ever get around to cleaning it up, changing the marketing approach, etc. Entertainment in the time of Trump, I guess.
Spanky
I’m a bit baffled by “the authorities” inability to track down these things. They have to go somewhere at the end of their mission, and it doesn’t seem like they’re trying to hide themselves. And there are people in our government who are adept at capturing and tracking RF signals, so they could pinpoint the command transmitter.
I’m gonna go not much out on a limb and say The Authorities aren’t telling a whole lot about what they know.
Armadillo
My friend reported a large number of drones over Los Angeles (he is near Rolling Hills) yesterday.
TupeloPhoney
@Searcher: Ceteris paribus, in the water as in the sky and on the taxiway, the large thing has the right of way; for it has a lot of momentum and is difficult to steer quickly, in contrast to the small thing which is relatively nimble and can more easily get out of the way of the large thing. Also, as a practical matter, the large thing will kill you if you don’t avoid it.
dexwood
They’re hoping to capture the elusive, nocturnal, northern Jackalope on video. Throw in the capture of a chupacabra here and there, cash in.
Wag
@J R in WV:
I think it’s big oil.
Major Major Major Major
Apparently Iran is shooting missiles at an Iraqi airbase?
different-church-lady
@Adam L Silverman:
No no, I’m enjoying this…
Comrade Colette Collaboratrice
Speaking of drones, Duncan Hunter out.
different-church-lady
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yeah, but so are the lies.
debbie
@Major Major Major Major:
Story here. Can’t believe their editors went with the photo they used.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Iran state TV says it’s Iran
the video has been deleted
OzarkHillbilly
“Hold mah beer. Watch this.”
lamh36
I suppose we’ll hear from Adam S soon…
Immanentize
the best way to figure this out is to shoot one down.
different-church-lady
@weavrmom: When I was a kid (in the 70s), we had a neighbor up the hill from our house. One day he put up a tall fence around the back yard. We didn’t think it was out of the ordinary, lots of people put up fences around their yards for privacy.
About a year later we heard the guy had been arrested for growing pot. And the way he got caught was that a cop was just doing a routine patrol of the neighborhood, and as he drove by the neighbor’s house he did a double-take: the neighbor had let the pot plants grow about a foot above the top of the fence.
sab
OT: off the hook for dinner tonight. Spouse not hungry. Me neither. Yay.
Start accounting busy season Friday, with HOA agreed upon procedures and then taxes whenever that starts ( later every year.) Completed all my payroll taxes already! Earliest ever. Everything mailed, submmitted, and taxes paid. WooHoo!
So Friday night spouse gets the requested TaMara pancake.
I am using the ricecooker because I know how to work that. I have a ricecooker/slow cookerthing that I bought in the now defunct and lamented Korean grocery store down the block. My rice cooker is sort of on or off. The big rice-cooker/slowcooker is scary. I use it as a very big rice-cooker that differentiates between brown and white rice. I know it has many more capabilities. I just don’t understand them or how long to cook.
Anything that needs to cook long in my house either goes into the oven, the double-boiler, or the cast iron dutch-oven/chicken fryer.
My stepkids will like the big ricecookerthing someday soon. Aside from being big, it has impressive capabilities.
lamh36
Immanentize
@Yutsano: There are plenty more profitable drugs than MJ
Patricia Kayden
Zero days of Trump not being an embarrassment.
jl
@lamh36: News says at least half a dozen Iranian missiles launched toward US airbase in Iraq.
Martin
Bet anything it’s the Air Force counterdrone program out of Warren.
Immanentize
@dexwood: I love a good (well any) Chupacabra narrative
sab
@lamh36: Yikes! Hope I am not overrewacting.
Immanentize
@Comrade Colette Collaboratrice: there must have been some 2020 after the new session advantage to him
Immanentize
@jl: That sounds too boring and deterrable for Iran to try
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Roger Moore: The latest drone model’s software won’t let you fly them in restricted areas, IIRC this was a compromise to enable drone flight in less restrictive areas than the previous regulations.
Another Scott
@lamh36:
Cheers,
Scott.
dexwood
@Immanentize:
I like ’em, too, but I’m more of a la Llorona guy .
Roger Moore
@randy khan:
I don’t expect for small drones to require permission to fly in unrestricted airspace. The problem is that drones wind up flying in restricted airspace, and there’s no way to track down the perpetrator because the drones lack an ID. I suspect the long term solution will be for the FAA to require ID on all drones, and to give relevant authorities the right to physically stop drones that fly without ID.
jl
@Immanentize: “That sounds too boring and deferrable for Iran to try”
It’s breaking news. Maybe more missiles than reported. Maybe incomplete report.
I hope it’s a false report.
Roger Moore
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Can the authorities set up temporary restricted areas and expect the drones to respect them? I’m asking because I thought there were recent stories about drones blocking firefighting aircraft.
Comrade Colette Collaboratrice
@Immanentize: Final paycheck. Congresscritters get paid at the end of each month.
Right to the end, it was always, only about the money.
karensky
@Kent: Keystone Pipeline or other gas and oil activity? Freakin creepy
Michael Cain
@karensky: Colorado has tightened up its rules on leaks from oil and gas infrastructure. My bet is on someone using some of the new leak detection technology. There are pipelines, and limited amounts of drilling, in the areas where the drones have been flying. Could be the gas companies themselves — leaks equal lost money — or could be one of the bigger environmental groups.
Armadillo
FWIW, my friend says he was on a call yesterday morning (January 7) with people in Miami, who also reported seeing drones. (My friend is in an entirely unrelated line of work – nothing to do with drones)
Jay Noble
Saw this just after it posted and waited to see some comments! As usual, BJ commenters amused, bemused and confused me and were generally all over the place. Thanks, Cheryl!!!
Things we know:
They are big, expensive drones.
They only fly at night.
They’ve flown adjacent to if not directly over restricted air space (missile silos) and Warren AFB hasn’t twitched.
No one claims them – although one denial might have been a wink wink nudge nudge semantic. Buckley AFB in Aurora, CO is home to Space Command but only one of the divisions there specifically said “Not us!”
The possibilties of what you could be doing over sparsley populated prairie seems endless. Crops, livestock, water, oil, real estate, ley lines . . .
Here’s hoping we find the answer and that Trump leave those missiles right where they are.
Jim
Trying to find the missing part of Trumpty`s brain ?
SteverinoCT
@TupeloPhoney: when I was in the Navy learning the Nautical Rules of the Road, we called that “The Law of Gross Tonnage.”