Former national security adviser John Bolton, highly sought by Democrats as an impeachment witness, said Monday that he is prepared to testify in a Senate trial if a subpoena is issued — a move that could be damaging to President Trump.
My conclusion from this announcement is that McConnell has been signaling behind the scenes that no witnesses will be called. But perhaps I’m being too cynical. In any event, the candidates running in Colorado, Maine, Arizona, etc. should all be making big noise about this, so Gardner, Collins, McSally and the rest have to get on the record saying either that they want witnesses, or why they don’t.
the Conster
It just seems like the Senate is even getting tired of all the endless Trump bullshit. Why don’t they just cut bait and install Pence? Nothing would change policy wise and they’ve already got the judges.
Kent
Now that he’s opened the door the House should subpoena his ass. No reason to close the book on oversight. Schiff should fire up his committee and see what Bolton has to say.
15 flush mistermix
@the Conster: Because they’re more afraid of their base – and primary challengers from the right – than they are of Trump. The base loves Trump, not Pence.
Steeplejack (phone)
@the Conster:
They can’t get rid of Trump, because of his rabid base. It’s the old question of how do you dismount from the tiger that you have been riding so successfully up to now?
West of the Cascades
@15 flush mistermix: Aren’t we close to (or past) the deadlines for signing up to run in primaries? I haven’t followed the situation of the potentially-defeatable incumbent Republican Senators too closely, but if they haven’t attracted a primary challenger yet, it’s conceivable there is a “grow-a-spine” date — the filing deadlines in their respective states — after which these people have to more seriously consider support a real trial (because 70% of the public seems to) or face being hammered in the general election.
JaySinWA
My totally unsubstantiated theory of the Bolton statement. He’s finally headed towards a war he wanted, but has no confidence that Trump can execute that war properly. So now is the time to start the removal process. Pence may be dense, but he is probably more inclined to take advice from someone (maybe Bolton?) who won’t muck it up as badly as Trump will.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@West of the Cascades:
They should start drinking now.
Calouste
@West of the Cascades: Even after the primaries, a Trumpian could run as an independent or write-in if they think the incumbent Republican doesn’t show enough fealty to the mighty Orange. That risk might actually be higher the redder the district/state is, as there will be little risk the Democrat will win even if the Republican vote is split.
MattF
I don’t think Bolton can plausibly accept a subpoena from the Senate and not accept one from the House, and I assume he and his lawyer both know this. Pelosi now has the upper hand. Color me pleased but not surprised.
Joe Falco
@Kent: Yes! Have every Democrat insist if he’s willing to testify if subpoenaed, subpoena his ass in the House and let his testimony be publicly known. Call his bluff and let him and the R Congresscritters to twist themselves with excuses on why he won’t. Because of course he won’t, but at least it will knock down Bolton’s pathetic attempt to make himself seem reasonable.
Chief Oshkosh
@Kent: Agreed. Also have him in as the “Iran policy expert” for Speaker Pelosi’s war powers meetings.
Duane
@Kent: That’s a good idea. Subpoena Bolton and anyone else that McConnell won’t. Keeps impeachment in the news and gets more evidence against Trumpov.
mrmoshpotato
@Steeplejack (phone): Obligatory
catclub
So far the ONLY observable ‘grow-a-spine date’ is the date said Elected GOP pol retires from elective politics.
And even then, figuring out which tit of the right wing grifter machine to suck, limits that.
15 flush mistermix
@West of the Cascades:
What others have said above, plus these guys all want to die in office so it’s the next primary, or the next after that, that’s still important.
MattF
@West of the Cascades: Wrong species. Could be grow-an-exoskeleton day, though.
catclub
@MattF: But it is our problem that you think plausible matters. Rudy Giuliani wanted to testify in front of a friendly Senate committee chaired by Lindsey Graham.
He would then claim whatever executive privilege/lawyer client confidentiality necessary to not testify in front of an unfriendly house panel.
Anonymous At Work
John Bolton just announced that he is double-dog-daring Trump to start a war in Iran (which Bolton has always wanted) or else Bolton will draw attention back to impeachment. Only way to read this.
lee
I am also of the opinion that no witnesses will be called.
If for some reason witnesses are called, they won’t be under oath.
different-church-lady
is that even possible anymore?
NeenerNeener
The evangelicals on my FB feed only voted for Trump because they assumed he’d be replaced by Pence in short order. So Trump’s base among the God-botherers may not be as firm as we all suppose.
Cheryl Rofer
Bolton knows it’s all going to come out, and he wants to get ahead of the rest with his story. Reza Marashi had a pretty amazing thread of comments from people currently in the White House. Yes, they should be going public, but this is a first step, the first trickles through cracks in the dam.
Bolton also doesn’t want to be blamed for a war with Iran. He wants the war, but not the blame. Another reason to get his story out early. And he may even see the possibility of war crime accusations. Fiona Hill quoted him as calling Trump’s Ukraine maneuver “a drug bust.” There are places even John Bolton doesn’t want to go.
JaySinWA
@Steeplejack (phone):
I saw a claim last night that 60% of the R base wants Senate testimony. If true that makes things risky for McConnell. They’ve been convinced that it will exonerate Trump and convict the Democrats of argle bargle. The tiger may indeed be taking them for a ride.
15 flush mistermix
@Anonymous At Work:
Eh, maybe, but Trump is already moving in that direction, isn’t he?
Cheryl Rofer
As to whether witnesses will be called, Nancy SMASH is letting McConnell and his Republican friends twist slowly in the wind…
JPL
@Anonymous At Work: That seems plausible. Bolton is also writing a book and will want to include his thoughts on Ukraine as well as other hot spots around the world. Maybe if it is out in the open now, it will be easier to include in the book.
pamelabrown53
@Anonymous At Work:
I’m all over the map re: the Bolton issue. Initially, I worried he’d perjure himself now that he may get his Iran war. It’s also plausible that he would like Pence to replace Trump so if that Iran war materializes, he has a shot of getting back in the game. Power and influence.
Still, on balance I believe he should be subpoenaed.
Jager
@15 flush mistermix:
The RWNJ s I know are firing up shit like: “They burned our embassy and you libtards are mad because trump took him out!” They don’t care about impeachment, because they know he’ll get off. The religious ones are ready to start the new Crusades.
ET
Of course he could have said it knowing it wasn’t going to happen and after he conversed with people on the Hill so he could make this concession safely.
Anonymous At Work
@15 flush mistermix: I had thought about that but Trump responds quickest and most predictably to dares and threats. Bolton’s statement is “Start the war I want [@Cheryl Rofer: good point about fingerprints] or else the conversation will be about my testimony on Ukraine.”
Also, how does Bolton think this will play to both Trump and the media? Not how will this play, but how Bolton thinks.
Anonymous At Work
PS: I will be sooooo, SOOO!!! happy if all of us are completely wrong about everything we’ve written…
joel hanes
@Kent:
Now that he’s opened the door the House should subpoena his ass.
Bolton has not said that he would comply with a House subpoena. I think he will not — he specifically said “Senate”, and the enforcement mechanism that could force him to comply with a House subpoena has been broken by Barr.
And McConnell will prevent a subpoena from the Senate.
Hence the metaphor in the title of this post about promises to ride a centaur. Centaurs do not exist, so it’s a safe bet that the promisor’s bluff will not be called.
JPL
Bolton can’t be pleased with the way trump treated him which might be added incentive for him to testify. I hope that Cheryl is right and that the dam is about to break open. Geez Bibi even distanced himself from the assassination.
janesays
@the Conster: It’s pretty simple. The people who get to decide whether those senators will continue to be their party’s nominee when they come up for re-election would have a collective meltdown.
There is one group of people where Donald Trump is still unbelievably popular, and worshiped almost as the second coming of Christ – the Republican base. That base is decidedly shrinking and has less and less influence in general elections, but they absolutely still call the shots in the GOP primaries. A vote to remove the king by a GOP senator would be viewed as borderline treasonous, and would guarantee that senator gets primaried out of office the next time they’re up for re-election.
That’s why there’s no chance they’ll vote to remove him from office. The only thing that could possibly change that would be for the party base to turn on Trump, and that’s never going to happen.
janesays
@Kent: They absolutely should, but you know he would come up with some bullshit reason why he can’t or won’t testify before the House, and then the whole thing would have to go through endless court battles that wouldn’t be ultimately resolved until long after the election is over.
What makes the whole thing especially confusing is the fact that in the last 72 hours, Donald Trump has made all of John Bolton’s foreign policy wet dreams come true. There is almost nobody in the GOP establishment who wants open war with Iran more than John Bolton, and Trump has brought us closer to that point than any other president in recent history. You would think it would endear him to Trump even more, if anything. But… I’m inclined to think the only reason Bolton is making this “offer” is the fact that he knows it is all but guaranteed that McConnell will never let it happen.
chopper
he’ll testify, but not until his 2-week long orgasm over trump’s major military escalation with iran finally finishes.
15 flush mistermix
@Cheryl Rofer:
It’s hilarious that they’re in such a swivet about the “delay” when there’s been no chance for the House to even name managers or transmit the articles since they’re not in session until tomorrow IIRC. The mere mention of a delay is killing them.
Boris, Rasputin's Evil Twin
@different-church-lady: No matter how cynical you are, it’s never enough.” Lily Tomlin
JGabriel
misternmix @ Top:
I don’t think you’re being too cynical, but Pelosi may still have some leverage here. Legally, there’s no difference between being called to testify before the Senate or the House. Bolton can’t really argue that he’s willing to testify for one but not the other – at least it’s very unlikely he could successfully make that argument in court.
So, Pelosi can say to Moscow Mitch, “Allow witnesses and call Bolton, or I’ll call him myself and have him testify in the House under consideration of further articles of impeachment.”
McConnell – who doesn’t know for sure how damaging Bolton’s testimony might be – could well prefer to have Bolton testify under Senate rules he can control, rather than let House Democrats have their way with Bolton.
chopper
@15 flush mistermix:
trump is deathly afraid of an honest-to-god shooting war, because he knows he’ll take all the blame when it goes south. that’s why he’s content to drone guys or send some cruise missiles over, and talk tough like ‘we’ll bomb any of you people back to the stone age’.
OTOH, trump is easily goaded, both by his enemies and his own people. he’s easily boxed in and all manner of people are going to get him to paint himself into a corner on this.
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer: Yup.
(via nycsouthpaw)
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cheryl Rofer:
That’s my take on Bolton and trump. Bolton wants trump knifed, but he wants somebody else to wield the knife
Martin
@joel hanes:
The House is perfectly capable of enforcing its own subpoenas if it’s willing to go down that path. (IMO, we are long past that point)
John Revolta
Bolton knows this will influence Yertle’s decision about witnesses. And he knows which way it will influence him. If he wanted to get up and spill shit in front of everybody, he would be keeping his mouth shut.
germy
Suzy
@15 flush mistermix:
The minute Trump is out and Pence is installed, Fox News and all the right wing media can promote Pence, reprogram “the base” and make them accept Pence as their new leader. And this “reprogramming” will only take a few weeks. With the help of the evangelical right wing churches.
The right-wing media empire is not for Trump; they are for right-wing policies, for tax cuts, for not giving anything to those people. The evangelical right wing is not necessarily for Trump. They are for right wing judges, they are for theocracy. And, frankly, I think they are for white supremacy.
I honestly don’t understand why the congressional republicans don’t see that the right wing media and the right wing churches will get on with the program. Sure they could lose a few supporters, but the vast majority will fall in line. THEY ALWAYS DO.
WaterGirl
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Not a bad idea. I might start drinking now.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Suzy: Pence could never tickle the naughty bits of the kind of “christian’ for whom “Merry Christmas” is a way of saying “fuck you!”
(can’t remember who I’m borrowing that line from)
germy
germy
Mary G
BFD:
Total surrender to Putin.
janesays
@JGabriel:
I think you’re right that this would probably end with Bolton being legally compelled to testify, but… a court fight would probably be dragged out until long after the election is over. So we would likely be looking at SCOTUS issuing a ruling that compels John Bolton to testify – in June 2021.
Aleta
Am I wrong that Pence may be not just acquiescing to Trump on the surface but may actually want war in the middle east. Are he and GOP operatives figuring they need this to make the fundamentalists, who think all is ordained, especially this war, go the mat or hit the streets (or tithe themselves to
deathdebt or whatever)? I know their intentions are scary (see Barr’s speeches this fall for chills) but are there numbers/realistic guesses about how much is their vote and broadcasting influence is expected to count in 2020?Kay
@Cheryl Rofer:
I don’t recall when I first started believing this, but I do believe it. Maybe six months ago?
germy
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Ali Velshi just said on MSNBC that we are withdrawing our military from Iraq.
Republicans spent how many years blaming Obama for withdrawing troops from Iraq according to the SOFA negotiated between George W Bush and his hand-picked Iraqi president?
mrmoshpotato
@chopper: Is that a banana in your pocket, or are you a warmongering POS who might finally get the bombing the shit out of Iran that you’ve always wanted?
Martin
I think Bolton deserves slightly more credit here (yeah, I know). Yeah, he believes in military aggression against Iran, but he also believes in a specific kind of military aggression, and recognizes that there are counterproductive kinds. Clearly this is the counterproductive kind.
In other words, to him, this bumbling clusterfuck might be preventing the righteous, glorious war that he dreams of from ever taking place. That is, this is worse than a stalemate, because at least the stalemate kept the future prospect open.
sdhays
Is this for real or just someone riffing on how incompetent the Dump Administration is??
Martin
@Cheryl Rofer: More than anything, Bolton wants to be paid for spilling the dirt. He’s not going to talk until he can walk into the Senate chamber with his book prominently laid on the table before him.
JPL
@germy: You got to be kidding me. Well JFC
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Aleta: a story I read, I think in the NYT, said Pence and Pompeo have been pushing trump toward a more provocative stance with Iraq for months, including this assassination
?BillinGlendaleCA
@WaterGirl: Well, with some of the issues the last 24 hours or so, I can understand.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I heard about the attacks in Kenya, but this is the first I’ve heard that a US soldier was killed
a 23 year-old from Chicago
artem1s
@germy:
thanks Marco, but Nancy doesn’t need your permission. BTW, Dolt is gonna blame you for putting that worm in her ear though. Good luck with that!
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
There’s a letter announcing the withdrawal to Iraqi government. I’m just relieved they’re following some laws. A few. One.
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Republicans are surrender monkeys
Immanentize
@Kay: Hold that thought until more is learned.
Baud
So is Bolton less happy now that we are withdrawing the troops from Iraq (assuming it’s not another Trump lie.)
Cheryl Rofer
@sdhays: @Kay: I find that Twitter thread plausible, Marashi is reliable and knows people in the government.
The people he is talking to are probably civil servants, fairly high up and interacting with the political appointees. They may have individual blind spots, but for this sort of anecdotal material, that’s not a big factor.
His thread has been retweeted by a great many people, including people I respect who held political posts during the Obama administration.
IMHO, credible and real.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kay: I had seen that a bit ago on twitter, it looked like brinksmanship. Maybe that’s all he was referring to.
Cheryl Rofer
There are conflicting reports about that letter saying the US is withdrawing. I see reliable reporters from major news outlets saying it’s been confirmed by the military, but the copy that is circulating isn’t signed, and others are raising questions. I also has questions. I deleted one of my tweets because I’m unsure of what is going on.
WaterGirl
@?BillinGlendaleCA: No kidding!
catclub
I think you underestimate the lack of shame these people have. I would not be at all surprised if A) he makes the argument and B) some RW judge agrees with it. The only court such arguments matter in is between Trump’s ears.
Another Scott
@Suzy: +1.
I vaguely remember that some GOP functionary said that they didn’t care who the GOP president was, they just wanted someone to sign the bills that the GOP Congress sent them.
And Moscow Mitch has said no to Donnie on a whole bunch of things (e.g. his “$1T” infrastructure “plan”.). Moscow Mitch just uses Donnie as a foil to keep the press from asking him every day about the 250+ bills sitting on his desk that he wants to die. “We won’t take it up unless the President will sign it…” He’d be more than happy with Pence in the chair.
But, Moscow Mitch also knows what happened to Eric Cantor, so there are risks in upsetting the apple cart and he’s willing to bide his time…
Cheers,
Scott.
Mnemosyne
@germy:
I wouldn’t be surprised if various Iranian contacts have been pinging Kerry like, “WTF is going on with your guys?” but that’s not even on the same continent as Kerry being in contact with “the government” of Iran.
catclub
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That seems really wild. Why not at least wait until you are formally asked to leave, since it has been made clear that the Iraqi parliament resolution was not effective until it passes through the PM’s approval?
Mnemosyne
Wouldn’t it be mind-blowing if this assassination was a fuck-you to Bolton for being too “chicken” to kick the hornets’ nest?
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It just looks like a straightforward letter to me. I don’t see any veiled threat. There would be increased air traffic and that would be perhaps interpreted as bringing in more US.
Mnemosyne
@catclub:
I’m guessing that the last thing the US military wants is to have several thousand servicemembers available to be taken hostage. They want to get everyone the fuck out before Iraq and/or Iran can mobilize to do that.
catclub
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@mrmoshpotato:
I saw this and assumed you were referring to Joe Lieberman’s oped in the WSJ today. Yup, he’s still out there, and he’s still a war-mongering dickhead
Jay C
@catclub:
So IOW, a court in more-or-less permanent recess?
Jay C
Deleted: dupe
catclub
@Kay: The only brinksmanship I can figure is accepting the order which Iraq does not really want to send, (and before Iraq actually sends it) so the Iraqis will instead say “No, stay”.
But that seems far-fetched.
Cheryl Rofer
Another fustercluck
mrmoshpotato
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Referring to Bolton’s Iran war boner, but to hell with Lieberman too. (No, I haven’t read that WSJ op-ed. I doubt it would tell me anything new.)
trollhattan
@Aleta:
IMO it’s reasonable to consider Pence one of the End Times fundys who want a Middle East war in order to speed things up. I’d bet money on it but what good is money after the rapture?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@catclub: thats exactly what I meant, I can absolutely see trump telling Esper about yesterday’s vote: “Oh yeah, they want us to leave? You tell them we’re fucking ready to leave, then see what they do”
Duane
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Surprising how quickly the US complied with Iraq’s Parliament. If we follow through chaos and corruption are guaranteed, given who’s in charge.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@mrmoshpotato: I didn’t read it, just about. The WSJ is one paywall that almost never makes me feel like I’m missing something
mrmoshpotato
@trollhattan: Well what else are a bunch of these fucks going to use to pay to get into heaven? :)
Aleta
IISS* Senior Fellow for Middle East Security @emile_hokayem says Iran probably does not ”have an interest in a direct escalation and all out-war.” And probably does not “have an interest in attacking soft targets –Western installations outside the ME.” He says that “the game is likely to be restricted to the region. Escalating the conflicts across the battlefield. And that means that Iranian civilians but also Iraquis, Lebanese,Syrians and Yemenis are likely to pay the cost for this new crisis. ”
*International Institute for Strategic Studies
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer: One report I saw said it was a draft letter, but I can’t find that again. Another report says that it was signed by General William H. Seely III.
The earliest version of the report I can find is – http://news.trust.org//item/20200106193750-gbx3f/
It says:
Has the PM actually asked them to leave yet?
Maybe it’s an early draft? But why would he sign a draft??
Dunno. Presumably we’ll know more soon.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kay
Katie Porter, who is a gem, does a smart thing with her anti-Trump tweets. She ties them to her district. So in this instance she says if a constituent is detained they should contact her local office.
Don’t just criticize the mean-spirited douchebags. Help your people.
Fair Economist
@Cheryl Rofer: If it’s not signed, it’s probably a draft. So they are thinking about withdrawing; maybe have even decided to, but they haven’t yet made it official policy.
Mnemosyne
@Aleta:
Since they’re way smarter than Trump, I wouldn’t be surprised if they do something that will tweak him personally (like taking down some of his business interests) but not do anything that could invite military retaliation. ?
Cheryl Rofer
@Another Scott: @Fair Economist: See the tweet I posted at #86. Esper spoke to the press for the first time since Soleimani’s death to say that he didn’t know where that letter came from, and we’re not withdrawing.
Another fustercluck
catclub
The punishment of the innocent is always a key phase of failed projects.
catclub
@Cheryl Rofer: Another fustercluck
So Reuters really clucked up by claiming confirmation from Iraqi military?
Brachiator
@Suzy:
I think you are very correct here. The right wing media machine love Trump, but believe that they can make or break him and come up with another Grand Doofus whenever they like.
Trump speaks the language of his base. He is them and they are his. I am not sure that they would cut him loose very easily. They love the brash showman. And they love that he hates who they hate.
Frankensteinbeck
@15 flush mistermix:
One of those anonymous aide leaks said that they’re not afraid of Trump’s base politically. They’re afraid of Trump’s base in a literal, physical manner. Death threats and harassment are standard operating procedure for those assholes.
@NeenerNeener:
That was then. Everything changed when the Fire Na- uh, when the evangelicals got to see Trump persecute the shit out of every minority he could reach. Theirs is a religion of hate, and he’s a gushing fountain of it. Plus, anybody who’s had a good look at evangelicals know that they love the kind of sordid corruption Trump displays everywhere. They only say they’re against it.
joel hanes
@Martin:
The sergeant-at-arms thing?
Really?
Cheryl Rofer
@catclub: We will see.
Cheryl Rofer
John Revolta
@Another Scott: That was no functionary- that was Grover Norquist, one of the worst and most dangerous enemies we’ve got.
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer: Yup.
:-/
The reporting on it has been incredibly garbled as well. This tweet shows the letter, and it’s clearly not signed.
Twitter is going to start WWIII (not over this, but over something else) and we won’t know what happened and why…
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@John Revolta: Ah, I think you’re right. Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jinchi
@Kent: That’s what I thought. It sounds like he’s forum shopping. He declares executive privilege when subpoenaed by the House but invites a subpoena for the same case in the Senate?
chopper
@Cheryl Rofer:
heyzoos christo, what the living fuck? can this administration keep anything together at all?
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: Seely is a one star so I doubt he is able to make a call like that.
janesays
@Suzy: The concern is not that they’ll lose evangelicals to apathy or to the other side, the concern is that evangelical response to Trump’s ouster would be to go after every single senate Republican who voted for it and replace them with an even more batshit extremist Republican in the primaries.
Trump gives these people something no Republican before him has ever given them – explicit validation for their feelings of resentment and entitlement. There is one thing they care about more than tax cuts and abortion – owning the libs. That is priority number one for them. And Trump’s entire brand is about owning the libs. It’s not that it didn’t exist before him, but it was always said through subtext and whispers, largely to maintain the cover of plausible deniability. Trump is telling them, “with me, you don’t need to have plausible deniability for your hatred – own it, live it, be proud of it.”
WaterGirl
@chopper:
I know! I know this one! Pick me!
debbie
When I saw the title, I was terrified there might be a BC-style graphic accompanying the post.
'Niques
@trollhattan: … the End Times fundys who want a Middle East war in order to speed things up.
Because the God they claim to worship isn’t moving quickly enough to please them.
Can you say blasphemy?