I don’t know who said it recently, but someone mentioned that Democrats might do better worrying about how their candidate is going to appeal to black voters in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee. To me, that makes as much or more sense as trying to figure out how to turn fickle Obama/Trump voters back to a Democratic candidate. Fundamentally, though, it’s hard for people who follow politics closely, and who care deeply about the outcome of the election, to determine how to motivate the occasional voter.
In addition to not understanding the behavior of the occasional voter, I also don’t understand the behavior of the calculating voter – the one who, for example, likes Warren or Booker, but thinks that their most admired candidate is too liberal or too whatever to appeal to the occasional voter. The history of politics is full of winners who seemed unlikely at this point in the race (the current President being one, Obama being another).
Since voting nature is essentially unfathomable, isn’t the best approach just to support the candidate that appeals to you? At least you’ll be genuinely excited to support that candidate, which is a major part of motivating others.