Most projects for the 2021 Senate composition will have both parties at 50 +/-2. Democrats are likely to lose one seat (Alabama) and Republicans are playing defense in several seats where early fundraising and favorability polling supports plausible Democratic pick-up in Arizona, Colorado and Maine. There are several other seats up for grabs right now.
There is a thin chance of a 59 seat Republican Senate, and a chance of a 47 seat Republican Senate. There is no chance of a 60 seat Democratic Senate in January 2021. Plausible policy pathways for Democratic preferences are constrained by whatever can go through a 51 vote procedure. This means either getting rid of the filibuster for legislation and equalizing legislation with confirmation standards, or reconciliation.
Sinema is a NO on getting rid of the filibuster
“They will not get my vote … whether I’m in the majority or the minority I would always vote to reinstate the protections for the minority” https://t.co/b2ekoUz66i
— Bill Scher (@billscher) October 29, 2019
Health policy that can go through reconciliation with fifty votes and a friendly Vice President means that we would be living in a world controlled by Senator Murkowski (R-Alaska) or Senator Manchin (D-West Virginia). Those are the senators who are likely to defect from their majority caucus position. This realization should strongly inform what is mechanically plausible after a Byrd Bath. It should also inform to a somewhat lesser degree what is politically possible.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Thanks Mayhew. This point is extremely applicable to all 2020 campaign policy discussion in general. We can run on aspiration, but we must also plan on reality.
What we can realistically achieve in 2020 must be understood to be constrained by a Manchin/Murkowski Senate.
satby
I’d like to just get rid of the Senate at the same time we got rid of the electoral college, and yes I know it would require amending the Constitution. But the Senate has allowed a despotic minority political party to overrule the plain majority wishes of the American people for decades. It’s anti-democratic, as designed, but it has no place in a country with (adult) universal suffrage.
Zzyzx
And this is why I don’t care in the slightest about primary positions. The only argument that sways me are ones about how they’re able to win the general.
chopper
thin chance of a 59 seat republican senate?! yarr, that’ll be replacin’ the shark in me nightmares.
PPCLI
@Zzyzx: Yes. And “Winning the general” has to mean winning the Senate as well as the Presidency.
Josie
@Zzyzx:
And what kind of coat tails the presidential candidate will have. Which candidates are working to strengthen down ticket candidates and which ones are ignoring them?
Greg
I have always thought that a reform of the filibuster is in order. Change the burden to those that want to delay. Require 40 votes to continue debate (delay) instead of 60 to end debate (move ahead).
Allow the vote to be held at any time, as often as desired. Require a 15 minute notice, and 15 minutes to vote. Make those that want to delay be there to do so. Make it a sacrifice.
PPCLI
@satby: There is no way that the states who currently benefit from the undemocratic character of the Senate would vote to ratify such an amendment. Better to think in terms of things that don’t require a constitutional amendment and will help make the Congress a bit more answerable to the will of all the people, like adding a few hundred Representatives to the house, or statehood for Puerto Rico and DC.
germy
Another Scott
I’m so old that I remember when Reagan’s coat-tails flipped the Senate from 41 GOP to 53 GOP in 1980. And the flip was a big surprise, from my recollection of the TV reporting on election night.
The best way to move forward on things we value is to fight for every single seat. The 2020 elections are over a year a way. A lot can change before then, but we need to work for it every day (at least after the Virginia elections on 11/5/2019!).
“Dans les champs de l’observation le hasard ne favorise que les esprits préparés.” – Louis Pasteur
Cheers,
Scott.
PPCLI
@germy: The Democrats (and Democratic funders like Tom Steyer) need to stop playing defense on this. Put together an organization (fast!) to contact everyone who has been sent such a letter, and make sure they know that the Trump party is trying to take their vote away. And tell them how to make sure that the vote doesn’t get taken away. And target on Facebook or wherever the populations that are being targeted by Trump party operatives to tell them over and over again that the Trump party is trying to take their vote away, so they had better use it. Perhaps this is already being done. I hope so, but I’m not hopeful.
The Trump party will keep doing this because it works. And there isn’t any effective pushback as far as I can see.
Edmund Dantes
It’s fine to plan for compromise, but don’t make your first offer your compromise position.
CaseyL
Ding Ding Ding! That’s why the Democrats need to attract people who aren’t usually interested in politics. In the gerrymandered districts, getting “squishy” GOP and not-usually-interested votes is essential to breaking the GOP hold on them. I hope someone – DNC, DCCC, DSCC, individual candidates – is working on how to peel those votes away from the GOP.
Zzyzx
@Edmund Dantes: the flip is if you get people to vote for you because you promise the impossible, how do you get them to believe in you when it all fails?
Another Scott
@Zzyzx: Um, the GOP has done it for decades. ;-)
Smart candidates run on what their constituents want, while maybe pushing the envelope a little to get the fired-up more fringey, Overton-window-pushing types.
Politics is the art of the possible, but the possible changes over time.
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Zzyzx: Don’t fucking promise the impossible. Say you want to build something ambitious but achievable.
WaterGirl
David, up top
David, that is such a scary thought – you should have saved this for Thursday, on Halloween!
MJS
Sinema’s “reinstate the protections for the minority” rankles me almost as much as her vote to confirm Barr does. How about achieving things for the majority, meaning the majority of the people in this country? By all means, if we retake the Senate, even by one seat, let’s make sure the Republicans in the Senate (who if Dems take the Senate, will represent significantly less than 50% of the population in this country) can continue to block necessary legislation. Solid strategy.
rikyrah
Thank you, Mayhew.
O. Felix Culpa
Sinema was elected by a razor-thin margin in f*cking Arizona. It’s still a RED state – although trending purplish – and she has to get reelected in Arizona by Arizonans, so she’s not going to vote or speak like a senator from California or Massachusetts. Let’s work to get Mark Kelly elected and give her and the other Senate Dems more breathing room and support.
rikyrah
@germy:
Thieving muthaphuckas.
rikyrah
Trump backers aim to smear war hero amid more damaging testimony
Rachel Maddow describes the impressive accomplishments of Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who testified before the House impeachment committees today as a first-person witness to Donald Trump’s phone call with the Ukrainian president. True to form, Trump allies in Congress and the media have tried to blunt news of Vindman’s testimony with baseless smears.
Major Major Major Major
This is one of the reasons why the big fight about medicare-for-all is stupid. Now two of our leading candidates (Warren and, whether you like it or not, Sanders) are being browbeaten into releasing detailed plans for big across-the-board tax increases. Warren was not great at deflecting that at the last debate, and this is going to be a drumbeat issue. And none of it will ever happen.
Meanwhile, not a peep on foreign policy, where presidents actually have control…
cmorenc
At least it’s not going to be Joe Lieberman’s world post-2020. Lieberman, with an assist from purported “moderate” Republican Scott Brown, managed to make a 59-41 Dem majority seem like a 59-41 minority.
MJS
@O. Felix Culpa: She’s up for re-election in 2024. She doesn’t need to give her opinion on the filibuster in 2019, just like she didn’t need to vote to confirm Barr in 2019 (not one person will vote for her in 2024 because she voted to confirm Barr). She can simply say, “Mitch McConnell has caused serious damage to the Senate, but I will have to see what rules are proposed.” Far better than signaling surrender before the first shot is even fired.
Edmund Dantes
@Omnes Omnibus: exactly. You don’t have to promise unicorns but don’t start with Romneycare/heritage foundation plan saying “they can’t possibly say no to this, it’s their own plan.”
rikyrah
Vindman: Trump-Ukraine call record omitted Biden-related mentions
Rachel Maddow shares breaking news from the New York Times that Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman testified to House impeachment committees that corrections he sought to make to the record of Donald Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were not made. Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, joins with analysis.
Kelly
Big state populations are growing faster than small state populations. I’m worried the Senate is likely to be more and more of a reactionary stronghold as the demographics play out. I read something by I think Norman Ornstein that extrapolated 30% of the population would be electing 70% of the Senate in 20~30 years. At some point we’re gonna get to a 1787 situation.
Beautiful crisp fall day here in the Cascade foothills. I heading out for a leaf peeping float trip with old friends.
rikyrah
Brennan: W.H. handling of Trump’s Ukraine call ‘an aberration’
John Brennan, former CIA director, talks with Rachel Maddow about reports that Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman testified to House impeachment committees that the record of Donald Trump’s call with the Ukrainian president omitted crucial words and phrases.
Major Major Major Major
@Edmund Dantes: Obamacare is not the Heritage plan, and “Romneycare” was the best that MA Dems could do. Could they have ended up with something leftier without a veto-override requirement? Maybe. Leaving aside whether that would necessarily be better… it was passed by Dems over Romney’s disapproval.
Omnes Omnibus
@Major Major Major Major: Saved me the trouble. Thanks.
Jamie
@chopper: No kidding! Yikes!
rikyrah
Impeachment witness says transcript of Trump-Zelenskiy call was not complete
Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman told the impeachment investigating committees that the White House transcript of a July call between President Trump and Ukraine’s president omitted crucial words and phrases, and that his attempts to restore them failed. Lawrence O’Donnell discusses with Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, Ned Price, and Evan McMullin.
Mandalay
@cmorenc:
But it might be Matt Lieberman’s:
His campaign video: Matt Lieberman is running for U.S. Senate
I’m sure he can’t be as bad as his dad, but meh.
The Moar You Know
@PPCLI: That’s still playing defense.
Let’s have CA and NY state start stripping Republicans from the voter rolls and see how they like that.
Chyron HR
@Edmund Dantes:
Wow, Bernie and the Bros are really determined to cling to the “Obama’s a dumb n-word” strategy that paid dividends for them in 2016, huh?
It’s almost like his plan is to lose the primary on purpose and claim he was robbed…
The Moar You Know
@Mandalay:
William Taft -> Robert Taft
George HW Bush -> George W. Bush
Donald Trump -> Donald Trump, Jr.
Just the first three that leapt to mind.
rikyrah
‘I can’t make people not afraid of black people’: Michelle Obama addresses epidemic of racism and says the best she can do is ‘show up every day as a good human to pick away the scab’
The former first lady spoke at the Obama Foundation Summit in Chicago on Tuesday
When her family – and other black families – moved to the city’s South Side, the white families moved out, she said
The added that ‘artificial things’ like the color of a person’s skin and texture of their hair ‘can divide countries’
The 55-year-old compared that experience to the what immigrant families in America now face daily
Moving into the White House ‘gave America and the world the opportunity to see the truth of who we are as black people’, she said
By DAILYMAIL.COM REPORTER
PUBLISHED: 20:03 EDT, 29 October 2019 | UPDATED: 01:11 EDT, 30 October 2019
Michael Cain
@Major Major Major Major:
We are a country at least as much of rules as of law. Congress has delegated huge amounts of domestic power to the executive branch. The Republican Congress under Trump did very little for two years — most of the policy changes were by rule and regulation. Myself, I don’t want to hear the Democratic candidates for the nomination talk about things that clearly require statute. I want to hear about regulations and rules they intend to start implementing on day one. Ditto where they intend the Dept of Justice to go in terms of lawsuits that will be supported, which can make a huge difference.
Mandalay
@The Moar You Know: Well you certainly have a point. A few more…
Duncan L. Hunter -> Duncan D. Hunter
Jesse Jackson Sr. -> Jesse Jackson Jr.
Joe Biden -> Hunter Biden
George HW Bush -> Jeb!
Just One More Canuck
@O. Felix Culpa: but people wouldn’t get their ponies that way
Cacti
@Chyron HR:
They’re really pushing hard for that 4% of Democratic voters with an unfavorable opinion of him.
Another Scott
@Major Major Major Major: There was quite a bit of back-and-forth about Syria at the last debate.
But, yeah, the discussed range of topics that the President actually has direct control over has been rather light.
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
@Another Scott:
That was more “piling on Tulsi Gabbard” than “expressing a doctrine”. I’d like to hear it debated as much as healthcare.
Citizen Alan
@Mandalay:
To be fair, Joe Lieberman would have been a lot more acceptable to me coming from Georgia rather than ultra-blue Connecticut.
David ??Booooooo?? Koch
@Chyron HR: yesterday, one of the Bros was on tee vee attacking Warren saying “She’s another Obama”, only he meant it as a derogatory.
Amir Khalid
@The Moar You Know:
And how would you compare Pat Brown to Jerry Brown, or George Romney to Mitt?
Steve in the ATL
@The Moar You Know:
Won’t matter. Let’s strip them in Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. Not sure how though….
Steve in the ATL
@The Moar You Know: no way Dotard Jr. would be as bad as his dad is.
Never heard of this Lieberman kid, but even his dad would have a big WAR number for Georgia.
Michael Cain
@Steve in the ATL:
To borrow a thought from Fonzie on Happy Days, at some point you have to have won an election decisively. You can’t cheat if you don’t at some point hold (speaking broadly) the Secretary of State’s office, the state legislature, and the Governor’s Office. In 2018 the Democrats made progress at gaining state trifectas, or breaking Republican trifectas. But with the exception of Kansas, none of those gains were in states where Republican gerrymanders or voter purges are a problem.
Zifnab25
@Michael Cain: Texas is nine House seats away from handing the chamber to the Dems. And it’s not the only state where Dems reclaimed a great deal of the territory lost in 2010-2016.
Gerrymandering has a rather nasty long-term downside, as it produces a raft of politicians that don’t feel inclined to cater to local voters. A decade’s worth of repressed backlash can seriously erode a party’s base. You see this sort of thing happen in foreign countries frequently, with strongman dictator’s popular support sours and the leader needs increasingly draconian tactics to keep the public in line. Eventually, the floor drops out and the local leadership is purged.
We’ve watched this happen in California, we’re watching it happen in Texas, and we could very soon see it happen along the entire Gulf Coast and South Atlantic Seaboard.
But it’s admittedly probably not going to happen in 2020.
azlib
@O. Felix Culpa:
Well said. As a fellow Arizonan, Sinema drives me crazy sometimes, but she is far superior to any Republican in this state.
Raven Onthill
And both are children of the fossil fuel industry.
Let us continue our slow suicide.
Matt
@CaseyL: If they’re STILL voting GOP, they’re a lost cause. Best “outreach” is a punch to the head.
JWR
@Matt: In popular parlance, the correct term is “a boot to the head”.
Now back to catching up with all these damn new threads!