This outdated partial draft got front-paged while I wasn’t around. I’d take it down now, if not for the conversations in the comments. Won’t happen again, I *hope*!
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Top Trump Donors THIS YEAR
Robert Mercer $13 Mil
Sheldon Adelson $10 Mil
Linda McMahon $6 Mil
Bernard Marcus $7 Mil
Geoffrey Palmer $2 Mil
Ronald M Cameron $2 Mil
Peter Thiel $1.25 Mil
Walter Buckley Jr $1 Mil
Cherna Moskowitz $1 Mil
Peter Zieve $1Mil#VoteBlue2020— Lori Go (@lori_go) August 7, 2019
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/take-texas-seriously-gop-anxiety-spikes-after-retirements-democratic-gains/2019/08/02/d9e9942c-b4b8-11e9-8949-5f36ff92706e_story.html
Yep. The key shift here isn’t that Texas is becoming more Hispanic, but that it is becoming more suburban—and Trump is particularly toxic w/ these types of voters. https://t.co/rUdOosiRup
— Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) August 7, 2019
What’s interesting is that Texas’ blue trend in the Trump era has been driven by white people leaving the GOP, not the much-speculated-about hypothetical future increase in Latino turnout. https://t.co/8GBkzOSeNH
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) August 7, 2019
The fact that Republican House members are retiring rather than facing their constituents in TEXAS is probably going to be more relevant to the 2020 election than the quality of zinger delivery at a 2019 presidential debate. https://t.co/EW60YGWj0O
— Seth Masket (@smotus) August 5, 2019
He leaves open #TX24, which was O’Rourke +3.5% last year. Marchant only held on by 3% in 2018 after coasting most of his career. https://t.co/4Qx8qUpRMZ
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) August 5, 2019
In 2018, six GOP House incumbents from TX won their races by less than 5%. Three of them (Olson, Hurd and Marchant) are retiring so far and I’d be really surprised if they’re the last.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 5, 2019
2018 there were 6 Texas Republicans who won with 51% or less. Few of those districts were even contested. There were also several others where the Republican got 52%-55%. https://t.co/3YNNYrn4xM
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) August 5, 2019
A lot of those guys wore dresses to escape before the slaughter so this is the equivalent of that
— death cab for covfefe (@joesmith54321a) August 5, 2019
If the Trump presidency pushes Texas toward the Democrats, it will be a legacy the Republicans regret for a generation. https://t.co/20hDNcgLb6
— Anthony Zurcher (@awzurcher) August 5, 2019
I keep coming back to the 2018-based measures of Trump’s approval rating among Texas voters–right around 50%, including in the exits
To me, it implies Trump was well underwater in TX24–say, minus-4 or worse–where Kenny Marchant (R) is poised to retire https://t.co/vITO72uG9a pic.twitter.com/MFCzLfNomB— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 5, 2019
Republican Rep. Kenny Marchant will not seek reelection in 2020, two sources confirmed to The Texas Tribune.
He is the fourth member of the Texas delegation to announce his retirement in recent days. https://t.co/ZoLhuT3pOw
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 5, 2019
NEW: The much-anticipated future of Texas politics may not have fully arrived – but it has in the booming metros reshaping the state
From SUGAR LAND, our riff on the House #Texodus, new hope post-El Paso that Beto will run for Sen + more
w @mattfleg >https://t.co/dznI4pWNDV
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) August 7, 2019
rikyrah
This is the money that they ADMIT TO, folks.
Just the stuff that they ADMIT TO giving.
Doug R
Throwback Thursday?
dmsilev
@Doug R: Slow news day. Only 3 new impeachable offenses so far today.
SiubhanDuinne
This sucks:
Developing from the WaPo.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2019/10/10/democrat-nita-m-lowey-of-new-york-chair-of-the-powerful-house-appropriations-committee-will-not-seek-reelection/
West of the Rockies
@SiubhanDuinne:
Is hers a solid blue district or might this go into the loss column?
PJ
@SiubhanDuinne: She’s 82. Everybody has a right to retire.
hells littlest angel
@SiubhanDuinne: It’s a solidly Democratic district, and she is a whopping 82 years old. She has served well, and I’ll bet her successor does too.
Roger Moore
@West of the Rockies:
It looks pretty solidly blue. And we have to get used to the idea that politicians will eventually need to retire. She’s 82, for goodness sake, so it shouldn’t come as a big surprise that she’s leaving Congress; she’s just lucky to be doing it on her own terms and not feet first. If we can’t find an able replacement, either for her committee chair or for her district, it says something bad about the party’s planning.
rikyrah
@SiubhanDuinne:
82?
OK
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@SiubhanDuinne:
It sucks, but she was 82 and probably ready to retire. Her district is pretty blue so should be replaced by a Dem. Too bad all of that experience and seniority will be lost
Chetan Murthy
@PJ:
In the 2018 election, she faced a “Reform Party” candidate and … uh, curb-stomped him. 88-12 or something. Curb-stomped. Looking at the House Appropriations committee lineup, I see a lot of stalwart and well-known names. Barbara Lee jumps out immediately, but so do others. I think we’re in no danger here.
She’s done a good job, and deserves a nice retirement.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Roger Moore:
For the 2020 cycle, no R has filed for the Republican primary. Lowey only had 1 primary opponent, a Mondaire Jones. That will likely change now that Lowey has announced her retirement, unless it’s too late to file for the primary in June next year?
SiubhanDuinne
I’m not criticising her for retiring, and I know she’s 82, and I know she’s done a good job, and I know she has a right to retire, and I know it’s a blue district. FFS. I can still be sorry that she’s leaving Congress, can’t I?
Chetan Murthy
@SiubhanDuinne: So say we all. So say we all.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
Here’s Jones’ campaign website if anybody’s interested
@SiubhanDuinne:
Absolutely. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I wasn’t criticizing you, just reassuring you in case you didn’t know all of that
Yarrow
Thanks for this excellent post. Texas is poised to turn blue much faster than people think.
Make it so.
One big issue that is getting almost no coverage is that in 2020 the ability to vote straight ticket in Texas goes away. Gov. Abbott signed that into law a few years ago. Texas votes for judges and the ballots are incredibly long. It’s so much easier to vote straight ticket than have to vote for everyone individually. I think this change could have an impact on Democratic votes more than Republican votes, but I’m not an expert in that area so maybe I’m wrong.
laura
@Chetan Murthy: Oh, Barbara Lee – always right and early on every issue!
Barbara Lee, a walking moral compass. We’d be lucky to have her on the Appropriations Committee.
Mike in DC
Texas flipping will put the GOP in an impossible position. They need to change their sales pitch and make at least minor changes in policymaking and priorities in order to woo back suburban voters and make inroads with nonwhite voters. But the racist half of their base won’t go along with that. It’s going to be hard to square that political circle.
West of the Rockies
We’re all saying 82 is definitely advanced in years and retirement a reasonable idea… I wish BS, who would be 80 when taking office, felt that way.
J R in WV
@West of the Rockies:
I don’t know about Bernie, but I’m beginning to suspect his heart may be ready to retire real soon now. He’s nuts if he keeps campaigning, and if he slows down, people will think he’s too old, because he’s too old!
Roger Moore
@Mike in DC:
No, it just means they’ll try to come up with new ways to cheat. Look for them to push hard for splitting electoral votes by Congressional district in every blue state, and to try to get the Supreme Court to rule that states can redistrict based on the number of citizens or registered voters, rather than total population.
A Ghost To Most
Greetings from snowy Ouray. Because the title, do Texans act like assholes in Texas, or do they save it up for their abundant trips to Colorado?
Chetan Murthy
@A Ghost To Most:
I think it’s a fair bet that that level of assholishness takes long practice. The twice-yearly trips up to Colorado aren’t near enough time to perfect it. No, they do it at home, too.
rikyrah
Texas is the White Whale.
I can’t even begin to express what winning Texas would mean to Democrats. Can’t even begin.
Sandia Blanca
More good news–apparently Pete Sessions (who is moving to another district to try to hang onto his seat) was “Congressman-1” in the Giuliani-Fruman-Parnas scandal. https://www.texastribune.org/2019/10/10/pete-sessions-congressman-1-guliani-associates-indictment/
Cameron
@Yarrow: It’s aimed at Democratic voters. Republican legislature pulled the same stunt in PA, and the governor had a fit.
p.a.
@Roger Moore: Yep. But disfranchising white suburban middle class people will get attention and cause outrage (to the people that ‘matter’). Compare & contrast to the last generation of mostly successful efforts.
gene108
I’ll believe Texas becomes a battleground state, when Democrats start winning statewide races, at any level.
I feel like I’ve heard, “this election Texas will flip”, for the last 20 years.
Peale
@gene108: I agree. I also don’t think “Texas is turning into California, just you wait and see” is going to yield many results. Especially in this scenario where the Dems rely on winning white suburban voters. White middle class voters are not reliable. Today they might be tired of crass Trump behavior. Tomorrow they might be going nuts because they passed a family of six at Krogers and they noticed the grocery store has more Hispanic food items than just an aisle of Goya foods. The reason the suburbs are probably changing to blue is that the voters who live there are changing. If we aren’t going to put in the effort to turn hispanic voters in Texas into a bloc that participates in elections at 50% rather than 30% in Texas presidential elections, we aren’t going to ever win that state reliably.
schrodingers_cat
Modi’s idiot Twitterers are admonishing Indian Americans to vote for T for the sake of Hindutva or some such garbage. Fat chance, suckers.
cain
@schrodingers_cat:
Fuck that shit. I’m not doing jack shit for Hindutva.. can you send me an example? I want to share.
schrodingers_cat
@cain: I reported that particular account to Twitter. It has been taken down since, it had charming stuff like death threats to Shehla Rashid and some other activists. I will send you a link as soon as I find one again. Twitter bio said he was in Detroit but who the hell knows.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@schrodingers_cat:
Why should Indian Americans feel beholden to Hindutva anyway? They don’t live in India and while there’s nothing wrong with feeling a connection to your ancestral country, that’s real “blood and soil” ethnonationalist shit. Trump is a clear and present danger to Indians living in the US; he hates all non-whites and is actively destroying constitutional guardrails on his power
schrodingers_cat
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: It is, that’s what BJP-RSS does, uses social media for propaganda.
cain
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
A lot of immigrants still feel beholden to their former country. It takes about two generations for that feeling to go away especially if they don’t visit – the social gap becomes quite large by that point and it’s almost nearly not the same country anymore.
A Ghost To Most
@Chetan Murthy: My sympathies. If someone is pulling a dick move up on the 4-wheel-drive roads, it is most likely a Texan.
Chetan Murthy
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
[By analogy with Israel] From what I’ve read, most American Jews are Americans first, and only secondly care about the impact of America’s policies on Israel. Younger American Jews are opposed to Israel’s government’s policies. But there are American Jews (I learned only recently that a friend was one of these) who see everything … EVERYTHING … in American politics thru the lens of how it affects Israel. They might as well not be American citizens, b/c their allegiance really is to Israel. I mean to the point of believing that all American Muslims are killers, that their culture is murderous and terrorist, and incorrigibly so. To that level. As in; in so many words. I was, to be sure, so taken aback I could not respond, except to say “I cannot subscribe to your Manichaean world-view”. [He’s no longer a friend.]
There are people like that all over the world, I guess. One of the things I’m proud of, about our country, is that, by and large, our society is so …. *corrosive*, so all-encompassing, that such attitudes don’t stand much of a chance.
Also: this isn’t confined to only Indian-Americans and Jewish people: look at the recent ruckus about the backstop, and the way that basically the entire Irish-American community, even including that fucker Peter King (R-Irish Republican Army) have come out as a united voice telling the UK that they better not fuck up the peace on Ireland.
schrodingers_cat
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: FWIW I don’t see it having much effect. The next D nominee will get over 80% of the Indian American vote just like HRC did in 16.