Here are what I think are the three most likely, and also most deadly, potential outcomes of the President’s premature pull back in Syria so that Erdogan can go after the Kurds and establish his buffer zone/expand his border into Syria. There are not in any specific order, but all of them are bad.
- Erdogan gets himself bogged down in Syria trying to set up his 30 mile buffer zone. Putin then decides he’s going to tighten the screws and both actual Russia military personnel and Wagner mercenaries come into conflict with Turkish forces and, as a result, Erdogan needs help and decides to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter. This places the US and the rest of NATO in the position of either responding to the Article 5 invocation or fracturing NATO because no one wants to support an increasingly erratic and authoritarian Erdogan. Also, no one really knows how competent the Turkish military is right now given that Erdogan has purged the military of his perceived opponents.
- The ISIS detainees currently held by the SDF are cut loose by the SDF because they can’t detain them and fight for survival at the same time. They go into the wind, which exponentially increases the ISIS threat through the Middle East, Central Asia, Europe, and Africa.
- It sets off a new wave of refugees. This has the ability to destabilize Lebanon and Jordan. And it will further increase the neo-nationalist and neo-fascist pressures in Europe that are built around an anti-immigrant and anti-refugee attitudes, which will increase the pressure on most of our NATO allies, as well as on the European Union.
Open thread!
Full disclosure: In May 2016 I prepared and gave the keynote strategic assessment of the regional and geo-strategic problem set in the Levant for the commanding general, command group, senior staff, and as much as the rest of the staff they could shoe horn into the auditorium of XVIII Airborne Corps as they were preparing to take over as the commend element of Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve. And I have provided ongoing strategic advice as needed/requested to senior US military personnel at echelons above brigade deployed to Operation Inherent Resolve.
Tokyokie
Whew! And at first blush I thought the consequences might be staggeringly bad. But then, like other mortals, I lack der Trumpenführer’s great and unmatched wisdom.
And I heartily agree that his wisdom, such as it is, is unmatched.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
Thank you for that hopeful and upbeat wrap up!
Shit. There’s nothing that Donald Tяump ever gets near that he doesn’t turn into shit.
Another Scott
4) There’s a continuing “low-intensity” conflict in Syria as Erdogan continues to beat up on the Kurds without trying to go all-in, and the Kurds continue to fight back without beating up on the Turks enough to cause an over-the-top over-reaction by Erdogan. Rumors of massacres of Daesh detainees are impossible to confirm as western reporters are not allowed access to the region. Putin continues to prop up Assad, but is reluctant to do much more overtly from lack of funds and personnel and because he doesn’t want to inflame things even more with US voters.
tl;dr – I wouldn’t expect a dramatic change in the situation, but would expect a continuation of the conflict at a potentially higher tempo.
Who knows?
Cheers,
Scott.
Mart
“Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!” the “Wizard” yells in vain. He has been discovered and they see him for who he really is.
Amir Khalid
@Tokyokie:
I agree. No one else is as absolutely devoid of wisdom as Trump.
Richard Guhl
Well, isn’t this a fine kettle of fish.
sdhays
And yet, somehow, Hillary would have been worse.
sdhays
@Amir Khalid: Louie Gohmert? Sean Hannity? Steve King?
JPL
Since Mitch has stomped his little feet, I assume that trump will say he never said that. What he said is he’s scaling back troops. Never mind the tv coverage of troops leaving, cuz fake media.
PeakVT
Two and three, most likely. Not convinced that an Article 5 invocation will result.
Nonetheless, I still think disengaging from the entire Middle East – in a coordinated fashion, not via tweets – would be the best for America. The number of premature deaths from opiods last year alone, in this country, vastly exceeds all the deaths here caused by Middle-Eastern terrorists. All the blood, treasure, and brains spent over there would be better used here.
America is not doing “good” (or well) in the Middle East and will not start anytime soon.
bbleh
But more importantly,
4. Trump Towers Istanbul becomes the new go-to place for the movers and shakers in Turkey.
And in any case,
5. The resulting chaos and carnage is blamed on (in no particular order) George Soros, failed Hillary Clinton policies during the Obama administration, Deep State pushback against the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, Brussels bureaucrats, and the lying propaganda of the fake-news media. After some confusion, Republican Senators and Congressmen, and the hosts on Fox, One News, and Sinclair, fall in line, and Republican approval of Trump’s actions in Syria tops 90%.
catclub
What are the chances of slaughter of potential enemies before releasing them?
Mike in NC
Interesting strategy: make an ill-advised foreign policy decision to tick off a bunch of Republican senators while your on the verge of being impeached by the House. Crazy like a fox or just crazy?
Or is it all just a birthday present for Vlad that had been long planned?
rikyrah
Yeah…..choices between bad choices.
I knew our luck would run out eventually. His idiocy plus his greed.
There’s a phone call that explains this.
The President of the United States is a threat to American National Security.
Yutsano
Eh. Maybe this will be the final push and Iraqi Kurdistan goes all in on full independence.
Adam L Silverman
@catclub: Possible, but I think it more likely the SDF just lets them go.
germy
MattF
Whoa, folks. We’re all agreeing with Pat Robertson.
Tim C.
@Mike in NC: In some ways I think that’s what’s happening. The Senate GOP has made it clear he can do whatever he wants and not get removed. So if they pass a law, he can ignore it. He’s figured out he really is in charge of the rest of the GOP. He’s not wrong.
Cheryl Rofer
Adam: Excellent assessment for, say, 7 am Eastern time today.
But (I have the same problem) it takes more time to write something like this than it takes for Trump to screw things up.
The Departments of State and Defense both said today that we will not be withdrawing our troops. But then there’s this:
And this
ETA: The video is not confirmed.
Mike in DC
@Yutsano: The Syrian Kurds and Iraqi Kurds have different leadership and are not on the same page. They probably wouldn’t unify except in the face of a common existential threat to both of them.
jonas
Meanwhile, as Cheryl pointed out on the other thread, the Pentagon is now scrambling to reassure allies that we’re not abandoning Syria to ISIS, despite what the president said/tweeted.
This is totally normal.
ETA: Whoops! Looks like Cheryl and I were both writing at the same time here. What she said.
jonas
It’s really comforting to know that at this moment, it appears no-one knows who is in charge of America’s military and foreign policy. I really hope Mattis is reconsidering his decision to remain politely quiet on Trump’s fitness for office, particularly now that it’s clear Trump’s inner circle has told the NSC and Pentagon to go fuck themselves and given a green light to Turkey to set the Middle East on fire.
trollhattan
@sdhays:
The Kurds, furnished with by far the region’s best email service, would have spammed their foes into submission and at long last, formed their own autonomous Kurdistan, heralding peace to a troubled part of the globe. Or something.
Been more than two years since grownups were in 1600 Pennsylvania. The memories are fading.
sdhays
@Mike in DC: Hmm…I wonder where they might find a “common existential threat”.
trnc
Wouldn’t the other NATO countries be pretty well united in saying, “You broke it, you bought it?”
sdhays
@trollhattan: I suppose they would have put their email servers in Ukraine, because who doesn’t?
trollhattan
@Mike in DC:
Can’t you just hear Erdogan saying, “I assume some are good people.” as he unleashes the armor?
Steve in the ATL
Somehow, my day sitting across the table from a group of steelworkers doesn’t seem so bad now.
Mandalay
@Adam L Silverman: Completely O/T, but any thoughts on the likelihood of Trump doing something about an American woman with diplomatic immunity who fled the U.K. after killing someone in a traffic accident last August?
Boris Johnson chose to name (i.e. shame) her publicly, and says he is going to ask Trump to intervene.
Yutsano
@Mike in DC: I’m half-jesting. Or more or less saying what’s probably inevitable out loud.
Cheryl Rofer
Gin & Tonic
@jonas:
And I really hope for an evening of sexytime with Salma Hayek. I think both are equally likely.
lee
I’ve also see reports via twitter that the ‘the best negotiator’ got completely rolled by Erdogan today.
catclub
@trnc:
Putin would not mind hearing that. The Baltic states, which are NATO members, would be made somewhat nervous by it.
trollhattan
@sdhays:
“In Ukraine, server farm is actual farm, next to turnips. Happy servers give best email.”
p.a.
Final DOD/Official US position won’t be disclosed until CiCNT (Commander in Chief NappyTime)
Another Scott
@jonas: This walking-back-of-Donnie’s-tweets thing has been going on for years. It’s nothing new.
Warning – Politico from December 20, 2018:
Reality will intrude, but Donnie can still make a huge mess of things in the process.
Cheers,
Scott.
sdhays
@trollhattan: Happy servers and taco trucks on every corner. Our future was so bright, once…
Cheryl Rofer
Longish thead from the former special envoy on Syria, a career diplomat. Worth reading.
Fleeting Expletive
On the third whistleblower (!)’s complaint, is anyone closer to knowing whether the alleged interference in presidential tax-matters is a Guilliani-type interference or more of a Pascale-CambridgeAnalytica kind of ratfuck? IOW, just bullying and threats or screwing around in the innards of the IRS? I’m curious because I’d imagine, or hope, IRS has some fearsome IT security.
trollhattan
@sdhays:
Still get sniffy over my missing corner taco truck. I had bought into the dream. We still get 2-stroke leaf blowers, though. Almost as good.
trollhattan
@Fleeting Expletive:
There’s a third? Hellova Infrastructure Week we’re having.
rp
@Gin & Tonic: You just gotta believe in yourself!
NotMax
As Article 5, if invoked, calls for NATO to undertake “such action as it deems necessary,” that includes severe tut-tutting.
@Yutsano
The PKK (Turkish Kurd faction) has a presence in Iraqi Kurdistan, but the political power and influence there is (primarily) split between the localized KDP and PUK factions
Just Chuck
@MattF:
The Mandate Of Heaven? Seriously Pat? Why not just have a crown, robe, and scepter made for him while you’re at it?
Jeffro
@Just Chuck: Pat, just remember…if push comes to shove, your followers will believe trumpov speaks for Jesus, not you.
I mean, what do you know anyway, Pat?
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Oh good, we’re going to need a new SecDef. Again. And all new Joint Chiefs too.
jonas
@Mike in NC:
In terms of humiliating America every day on the world stage, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. Vlad’s loving it!
NotMax
@Just Chuck
The vaunted Sacred Orb Of Stable Geniosity is in Saudi Arabia.
;)
Kent
I really know nothing about this part of the world other than what I occasionally read.
But what are the chances of a 4th outcome:
4. The Syrian Kurds come to some sort of reconciliation with the Assad regime and together they both turn towards Turkey in some kind of united front?
The enemy of my enemy…and so forth.
NotMax
@Jeffro
Reaching the Donaldus Magnus stage.
Gelfling 545
@Mandalay: If Johnson will give Trump a statement that Biden stole the crown jewels the woman will be shipped back to England asap
Betty Cracker
From Newsweek, allegedly via an anonymous NSC staffer:
FWIW, I thought the US military should have stayed out of Syria and offered humanitarian assistance where possible instead. But committing and then withdrawing on one person’s whim is bananapants. Even if we elect someone sane, even if Trump is impeached and removed this week, how can the world ever trust us again?
Mike in DC
@trnc:
It really does depend on the circumstances under which Turkey comes into conflict with Russia. Both have a lot to lose. Turkey can get a bloody nose in Syria, but they can also turn Sevastopol into a naval museum any time they want.
Onkel Fritze
In my reading, Article 5 can be invoked for the common defense of NATO countries. On 9/11 the US was atttacked on their own turf. If Erdogan marches into Syria and the fucker gets attacked there, tough luck. I can’t imagine most other NATO countries would want to get involved there. I’m sure that Germany wouldn’t.
jlowe
Hi Adam,
Very thought-provoking analysis. What would be the impact of this fracturing of NATO? Other than evacuating Incirlik.
trollhattan
@Betty Cracker:
“If only Bolton had….” Nope, not completing the thought. Although odds are good his moustache caught fire at today’s news.
schrodingers_cat
@jonas: Ahh You are still a believer in the nobility of the great General Theranos
schrodingers_cat
@Betty Cracker: The world at the moment is filled with fascist heads of state. We are not alone in the descent to hell.
NotMax
@Kent
Greatly generalizing, but no love lost between Shia and Alawite or between Sunni and Alawite. Nor, for that matter, between Alevi (Turkish) and Alawite (Syrian).
hueyplong
@trollhattan: Was wondering whether today’s events might cause some former Trump administration people to speak out.
Just kidding.
patrick II
@Adam
Sure, mister glass half empty guy. But from the glass half full perspective:
1. Trump gets to keep his beautiful Istanbul Hotel open.
2. Trump doesn’t get embarrassed by phone calls.
3. None of Trump’s children will be involved in the fighting — so anyone killed won’t be related to him.
4. Who needs Turkey in NATO anyway? Those bases cost money and Turkey isn’t paying their fair share.
Always look on the bright side.
Mike in DC
@Onkel Fritze: That is the general understanding, yes. The ambiguity lies in whether a Russian attack on a Turkish “buffer zone” would be considered an aggressive act against Turkey. I suspect that the immediate response would be a flurry of activity by diplomats….including Chinese diplomats…begging the principals to please calm the fuck down as soon as possible.
waratah
@Steve in the ATL: how come you don’t get exciting news making jobs like the big Chevrolet strike? Deal with the presidential candidates telling you what to do? Drink Ohio wine?
Adam L Silverman
@trnc: Yes, but that basically fractures the alliance as the only other time Article 5 was invoked, which was by our allies on our behalf after 9-11, everyone answered the call.
piratedan
any possibility that this is the quid pro quo for Edrogan keeping quiet about the Kashoggi murder and the US failing to warn the journalist that his life was in danger?
Adam L Silverman
@Mandalay: I have no idea if it is even on the White House’s radar. I would expect that the Queen’s Coroner that get’s handed the case once the police investigation is done, will then work with the Foreign Office to determine if an extradition request can be made depending on what this woman’s actual status was. If one can be made, I expect they’ll make it. I have no idea what the current administration would do should that happen.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Very much so! McGurk was on one of the outstations for my keynote briefing to XVIII ABN back in May 2016. Not that I would expect him to know me from Adam and I am Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent: Unlikely. The Syrian Kurds, like their Iraqi and Turkish counterparts, have their own understanding of what an independent Kurdistan should look like and who should be running it. Other than wanting an independent Kurdistan, none of the Kurdish clans and families, let alone the Iraqi Kurds, the Turkish Kurds, and the Syrian Kurds, agree on where it should be, what it should encompass, and who should run it.
You also need to remember that a good chunk of the Syrian Defense Forces are also Syrian Christian Arabs (Syriac Christians). And that’s a further complication with reconciliation with Assad.
catclub
@Just Chuck: I would ask him why he never mentioned that Obama had the mandate of heaven, which is why he was elected president, right? RIGHT?
Steve in the ATL
@waratah: strikes hurt both sides, so I manage my affairs in such a way that they almost never happen in my watch! Plus I don’t deal much with the UAW; they like to strike more than many other unions.
ETA: I try to minimize worker’s compensation injuries as well, so I won’t be drinking any Ohio wine while on business trips!
Adam L Silverman
@jlowe: It weakens the alliance if Article 5 is invoked, but not complied with. This signals to Putin that if wants to roll into Poland or Estonia or Latvia or non NATO states that work with NATO like Finland or who would like to like Ukraine.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: Actually Ayatullah Uzmah Khameini, the Supreme Religious Leader in Iran, has decreed that the Alawi are Shi’a. As part of justifying the alliance between Iran and Syria.
Noncarborundum
Well, I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night, and I think …
scav
“The Mandate of Heaven” and “my great and unmatched wisdom” in he same day?! Who tapped the strategic hyperbole reserves?!
West of the Rockies
Would anyone be surprised if Trump said something like, “I’m not a big fan of turkey, okay. I much prefer ham or a good cheeseburger. We really don’t need turkey anyway.”
Another Scott
@scav: Heh.
I haven’t clicked on the Robertson linky, because – eewwwww…
But “Mandate of Heaven” is out of ancient China.
(Emphasis added.)
It’s kinda discombobulating to hear the term bandied about by Robertson.
Cheers,
Scott.
SiubhanDuinne
@Cheryl Rofer:
Could somebody please help me up? I just got knocked over with a feather.
trollhattan
O/T In which Ted Cruz [spit] and Julian Castro agree on something: the NBA got their lunch money taken by China, then forced to say they liked it.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Trump is apparently talking right now because Daniel Dale is fact checking him live on twitter.
Yutsano
@Another Scott: Okay thank you! I was hoping I wouldn’t be the only one to notice that! And yes hearing an ancient Chinese concept coming out of that decrepit snake’s mouth is…disconcerting.
NotMax
@West of the Rockies
“I hereby direct the Department of Agriculture to develop a turkey that is only the best – all WHITE meat.”
//
chris
What or who is CAOC?
Jeffro
@scav:
WIN.
Also, over here sobbing in the corner…
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Jeez, ya turn yer back for one minute and the tiles on the gaming table get shuffled. How do you say “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia” in Farsi?
Like a “9 out of 10 Grand Ayatollahs agree” commercial message.
jk
@Another Scott:
Everything Trump touches turns to shit because he has shit for brains and he’s too goddamn lazy to spend 5 minutes actually learning something.
God forbid this moron gets 4 more years to fuck things up even worse.
Beam me up Scott!
NotMax
@Jeffro
He gets that tingle up his leg from saying “mandate.”
jk
@NotMax:
Cool name for a band.
Jeffro
@NotMax: LOLOL
@jk:
Never happen at this point. We’re 13 months out from the election. At the rate he’s going, I should have taken the ‘under’ in the office pool. I don’t think he’ll be president* this Christmas.
trollhattan
Pretty Good Ayatollahs if you live in the upper Midwest.
trollhattan
@chris:
I’m getting Consumer Attorneys of California and Combined Air Operations Center.
Darn meddling lawyers!
Jay
@chris:
Coelition Air Operations Command. Theres a bunch of NATO and other Allied Airforces active over Syria/Iraq targetting ISIL and al Quida and defending our local allies on the ground.
Ben Cisco
@chris: Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar
Jay
jk
@Jeffro:
I certainly hope you’re right about this. I can’t imagine a better Christmas present than Trump leaving office early in disgrace with his tail between his legs.
Jay
Ben Cisco
@jk:
Aw come on man – it’s Scotty. You’re giving me a sad.
Jay
Jay
Adam L Silverman
@Noncarborundum: I see you’ve read our comment sections before.
Adam L Silverman
@chris: Combined Air Operations Center. It coordinates and deconflicts the Coalition against ISIS’s air operations. What you need to watch out for is if US and Coalition air forces, as well as ground anti-aircraft are tasked with targeting Turkish air forces.
Jay
Adam L Silverman
@trollhattan: The latter.
jk
@Ben Cisco:
Given that his screen name is Another Scott not Another Scotty, I opted for the former in my request.
trollhattan
Was holding out for special ops attorneys. Yours makes more sense, though. :-)
chris
@trollhattan: @Jay: @Ben Cisco: @Adam L Silverman: Thanks, all. I guessed it was something like that. It takes away the Turks’ air cover for any invasion I think. So, shitgibbon vs. The Pentagon, who ya got?
Jay
Jay
Stuck in moderation.@chris:
It doesn’t strip the Turks of aircover, drone use or airstrikes, it simply strips the Turkish Airforce and their ground coordinators of knowledge of Coelition air activities, so the Turks will have to rely on their own radars and sigint.
Jay
Barry
@catclub: “What are the chances of slaughter of potential enemies before releasing them?”
It would make a lot of sense, and it’s not like the Kurds would offend anybody who would actually help them.
J R in WV
So, this is a serious defeat for Trump’s military at the hands of ISIS and the Turks, great way to go into the election season!!!
Maybe the Rs will nominate Lindsay to replace loser Trump?
When was the last R president* to lose a war??? Remember, FDR beat both the European Nazis AND the Imperial Japanese military in WW II, NOT a Republican!
But losing to the Turks!?!?!??? What Right Wing nut job can vote for that kind of loser>?
Matt
@Jay: Well that explains why DOTUS decided to fuck them over.
trnc
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks to all for the responses.
9-11 doesn’t strike me as a very close analog because it was a sudden attack by a group considered to be an enemy by most civilized nations. Our own foreign policy may have contributed to the unrest and hatred that led to the attack, but I don’t think many people believe the attack was justified. On the other hand, Erdogan has become more and more authoritarian since Turkey joined NATO, so he has already drifted from the ideals represented by the alliance.
I’m not arguing that there wouldn’t be conflicting viewpoints among the NATO members, but I would say that Erdogan’s own actions contribute to a less than enthusiastic show of support by all.
J R in WV
Turkey was a member of NATO during the Cuban Missile Crisis, in like 1961 or so. IIRC — I was only 10 at the time. We had Jupiter Missiles with nukes in Turkey at the time, and gave them up to get Russian missiles out of Cuba, also IIRC.
So a long time before Erdogan got into leadership of Turkey. OK Google tells me Greece and Turkey joined NATO in 1952. Long time ago!