Israel’s 2019 National Election Part 2: The Revenge of the Son of the Update

I really don’t think a whole lot more is going to happen between now and daylight tomorrow. At least not anything that’s going to happen in public. As of 9:10 PM EDT, they’d counted 10% of the ballots cast. So the vote counting has a long way to go. The exit polls, as they stand right now, are:

Kahol Lavan – Average: 32 seats; Channel 11: 32 seats; Chanel 12: 32 seats; Channel 13: 32 seats

Likud – Average: 31 seats, Channel 11: 31 seats; Channel 12: 32 seats; Channel 13: 30 seats

Joint List – Average: 14 seats; Channel 11: 13 seats; Channel 12: 13 seats; Channel 13: 15 seats

Yisrael Beitenu – Average: 9 seats; Channel 11: 9 seats; Channel 12: 9 seats; Channel 13: 8 seats

Shas – Average: 9 seats; Channel 11: 9 seats; Channel 12: 9 seats; Channel 13: 9 seats

UTJ – Average: 8 seats; Channel 11: 8 seats; Channel: 7 seats; Channel 13: 8 seats

Yamina – Average: 7 seats: Channel 11: 7 seats; Channel 12: 7 seats; Channel 13: 6 seats

Labor – Average – 6 seats; Channel 11 – 6 seats; Channel 12: 6 seats; Channel 13 – 6 seats

Democratic Union – Average: 5 seats; Channel 11: 5 seats; Channel 12: 5 seats; Channel 13: 6 seats

Otzma Yehudit – Average: 0 seats; Channel 11: 0 seats, Channel 12: 0 seats; Channel 13: 0 seats

So while Kahol Lavan maintains a slight lead in taking the most seats, the issue now will be how the actual vote tabulation turns out and who will be able to form a viable coalition. Using the averages, right now Gantz can potentially put together a 57 seat coalition if he can get the Joint List, Labor, and the Democratic Union to support him. Bibi can potentially put together a 55 seat coalition by partnering with Shas, UTJ, and Yamina. This leaves Yisrael Beitenu, and more specifically, Avigdor Liberman as the king maker. The Joint List, which is a combination of Israeli Arab and left of center pro-peace Israeli Jewish parties, also has tremendous leverage. In April they made it clear they would not enter into a coalition government. Hopefully, they recognize that they have leverage right now and should use it in negotiating with Gantz. Regardless, neither Bibi nor Gantz can meet the 61 seat threshold until/unless Liberman makes his play.

In his speech tonight Bibi stated he’d form a Zionist, anti-terror coalition to form the next government. According to reporting Gantz has also begun working the phones. Tomorrow will tell us whether Bibi can once again eke out victory from defeat either by pulling enough seats from Yisrael Beitunu despite Liberman’s seeming opposition to him or by repeating what he did in April when neither he nor Gantz were able to assemble a 61 seat governing coalition. Vacating the election and calling for a third try is his back up play. It allows him to stay in place as the prime minister over a caretaker government for five or six more months and both maneuver to increase his chances and bide his time looking for an opportunity to solidify his position. Remember, Gantz would like to be prime minister. For Bibi, however, it is existential. He either stays on as prime minister or he faces prosecution and potentially prison.

Updates at 11:15 PM EDT

The Times of Israel is reporting in its live blog of the election and vote counting that:

Channel 12: Unofficial tally of 85% of votes shows Knesset deadlocked

Channel 12 is reporting results it says it has received from inside sources in the Central Elections Committee, which the news channel claims reflect around 85% of the national vote.

According to those unofficial results, Likud and Blue and White are tied at 32 seats; next is the Joint List with 12 seats; Shas and Yisrael Beytenu have 9 seats each; United Torah Judaism has 8; Yamina has 7; Labor-Gesher is at 6; and the Democratic Camp has 5.

The right-wing bloc has a total of 56 seats, the center-left has 55 and Liberman has 9.

Channel 12 explains its data on the fact that a large majority of votes have already been counted, but due to increased scrutiny, the CEC is doing recounts in order to ensure the information it puts out is accurate.

Also, Noga Tarnopolsky’s and Barak Ravid’s reporting from Bibi’s speech at the Likud election party is disturbing:

My take on this is that if Bibi does come up short, he will try to make the claim that a Kahol Lavan coalition that includes the Joint Lists’ Arab parties and Israeli Arab members is somehow illegitimate. And then try to leverage that to remain in power. That’s right in his wheel house.

Open thread.






35 replies
  1. 1
    Adam L Silverman says:

    I’m through futzing with the chart. Its as good as it’s going to get at this hour.

  2. 2
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Adam L Silverman:
    Does WP allow you to insert or make tables? Fricken ads on my phone break it up. Anywho, it looks fine enough

  3. 3
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: As far as I can figure out: no. I’m not a coder. I don’t understand how most of the back end works, which is why I stay out of the site rebuild stuff.

  4. 4
    randy khan says:

    Bibi does seem to have many lives, but even cats run out eventually.

  5. 5
  6. 6
    hells littlest angel says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: eke, not eek

    A Netanyahu victory would be scary.

  7. 7
    some guy says:

    The ghost of Ahmad Jabari doesn’t give a f*ck if his assassin becomes Prime Minister, or the man who appointed his assassin becomes Prime Minister. Baby Killers, thieves, and assassins, the IDF is apartheid’s sole salvation at this point. Bibi will annex the Jordan River Valley, whereas the ex-Commander of the Judea and Samaria Division will will simply allow the illegal colonies to expand and choke off access to resources for those of the wrong ethnic flavor. feh!

  8. 8
    rikyrah says:

    Thanks for the update.

  9. 9
    Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho says:

    @hells littlest angel:

    @Cheryl Rofer: eke, not eek

    A Netanyahu victory would be scary.

    Correct, on both counts.

  10. 10
    2liberal says:

    @Cheryl Rofer : re: eke not eek
    thank you for this.

  11. 11
    Jay says:

    GM has stopped paying for health care for at least 46,000 employees on strike.https://t.co/PgRc7rvjLd— Tara Golshan (@taragolshan) September 17, 2019

  12. 12
    Jay says:

    A sheriff in North Carolina was allegedly caught making racist comments on tape, and found out his deputy planned to release it.So, he plotted to have the deputy murdered.https://t.co/P3T63IBqxZ— julia reinstein 🚡 (@juliareinstein) September 17, 2019

  13. 13
    Jay says:

    Thank you, dear. We want to sue war criminal George Bush and you are with us https://t.co/3AYguFAXfF— الصحافي منتظر الزيدي muntadher al-zaidi (@muntazer_zaidi) September 17, 2019

  14. 14
  15. 15
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: Have you seen Bibi? Definitely an eek!

  16. 16
    Vhh says:

    The policy differences between Bibi, Benny, and Avigdor are probably small, but a colleague who knows Bibi (who attended MIT when we did) says that Bibi is truly a total a$$hole with whom no agreement is possible. So anything but Bibi is at least marginally a win.

  17. 17
    Adam L Silverman says:

    I’ve just put two updates up top. Here’s the first one:
    The Times of Israel is reporting in its live blog of the election and vote counting that:
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/channel-12-unofficial-tally-of-85-of-votes-shows-knesset-deadlocked/

    22min ago
    Channel 12: Unofficial tally of 85% of votes shows Knesset deadlocked
    Channel 12 is reporting results it says it has received from inside sources in the Central Elections Committee, which the news channel claims reflect around 85% of the national vote.

    According to those unofficial results, Likud and Blue and White are tied at 32 seats; next is the Joint List with 12 seats; Shas and Yisrael Beytenu have 9 seats each; United Torah Judaism has 8; Yamina has 7; Labor-Gesher is at 6; and the Democratic Camp has 5.

    The right-wing bloc has a total of 56 seats, the center-left has 55 and Liberman has 9.

    Channel 12 explains its data on the fact that a large majority of votes have already been counted, but due to increased scrutiny, the CEC is doing recounts in order to ensure the information it puts out is accurate.

  18. 18
    Jay says:

    Amazon is having a job fair in Boston.#JewsAgainstICE showed up.No business with ICE. pic.twitter.com/AG3D5GvIn8— Joshua Potash 🆘 (@JoshuaPotash) September 17, 2019

  19. 19
    Adam L Silverman says:

    Here’s the second part of the update:

    Also, Noga Tarnopolsky’s and Barak Ravid’s reporting from Bibi’s speech at the Likud election party is disturbing:

    My take on this is that if Bibi does come up short, he will try to make the claim that a Kahol Lavan coalition that includes the Joint Lists Arab parties and Israeli Arab members is somehow illegitimate. And then try to leverage that to remain in power. That’s right in his wheel house.

  20. 20
    Jay says:

    In-depth and sobering look at the ongoing struggle endured by DeAndre Harris, a young man who survived a brutal beating by white nationalists and Proud Boys at Unite the Right. https://t.co/DJaFVVPpJQ— It's Going Down (@IGD_News) September 17, 2019

  21. 21
    Another Scott says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Since Bibi doesn’t want a Palestinian state, and Bibi wants Israel to remain a Jewish state, isn’t it obvious that he has to claim that only Jewish politicians are legitimate? He’s just trying out the Apartheid language a little earlier than he planned, but that’s the way the country continues to be headed under his leadership.

    Least surprising thing in quite a while.

    Here’s hoping that he doesn’t get away with it.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  22. 22
    debbie says:

    In his speech tonight Bibi stated he’d form a Zionist, anti-terror coalition to form the next government.

    He just better not.

  23. 23
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Another Scott: Doesn’t surprise me in the least that he’s using that rhetoric.

  24. 24
    Mary G says:

    Senator Elizabeth Warren: "Yeah, I was there [on the selfie line] four hours, but I'll tell you what: so was the last guy in line." pic.twitter.com/YCs5xYV9vO— Maddow Blog (@MaddowBlog) September 18, 2019

  25. 25
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Jay:
    Deputy Barney Fife really was a hero. I always knew Sheriff Andy Taylor was a racist //

    Seriously, that’s nuts

  26. 26
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Adam L Silverman:
    Personally, I think it’s fucking disgusting that a Jewish leader would use such rhetoric, given their history. The Holocaust is still within living memory.
    Netanyahu/Likud show that no group of people are immune to fascism and racial supremacy

    Thanks btw for your analysis Adam

  27. 27
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: As I wrote earlier today, the ideology that Netanyahu subscribes to, that he was taught by his father, and that his father spent decades trying to package, market, and normalize is Jabotinsky’s Revisionist Zionism. It is a Jewish version of racist/religious supremacist fascism. The ur example of racist fascism is NAZIsm.

  28. 28
    Anne Laurie says:

    @Adam L Silverman: I’m guessing your best bet would be to set up the table as an image (on Excel?) and then insert the ‘image’ with the FYWP’s ‘Add media’ tab. Assuming your system shows the same ‘dashboard’ as my homebrewed IE 8 version.

  29. 29
    Jay says:

    On social media law enforcement in #Dahlonega referred to pro-Trump protest organized by neo-Nazis with histories of violence as an "antifa rally," making it clear where the police were directing their attention. Donations to bail fund still needed: https://t.co/1iHNgh4aIQ pic.twitter.com/FWXiLFsujm— It's Going Down (@IGD_News) September 16, 2019

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    Welcome to Amerikkkka.

  30. 30
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Anne Laurie: It is what it is.

  31. 31
    Jay says:

    Fuck them scabs https://t.co/D8Z9QX4zZL— Salish Sea Black Autonomists (@black_autonomy) September 17, 2019

  32. 32
    Jay says:

    Massive semen explosion after blaze hits bull artificial insemination facility, firefighters forced to dodge "projectiles" https://t.co/5CQmbBjelW— Newsweek (@Newsweek) September 17, 2019

  33. 33
    Timurid says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Nightmare fuel.

  34. 34

    @Jay: Goodness gracious! Great balls of fire!

  35. 35
    some guy says:

    ust five months after the last inconclusive ballot, the country could now face weeks of feverish coalition negotiations, political paralysis, brinkmanship and instability. A new government could take until November to be formed, marking a full year in campaign mode, a first for Israeli politics.

Comments are closed.