Election Day In NC

Should be interesting to see the outcome:

Republican leadership lowered expectations for the outcome in Tuesday’s North Carolina’s 9th District special election, calling it a “swing district.”

President Donald Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016, but Republican outside groups have spent more than $6 million on the race, which Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates Toss-up.

“You know, the Bishop district is a very tough swing district,” GOP Whip Steve Scalise told reporters Tuesday.

Republicans appeared to narrowly win this race last fall. GOP nominee Mark Harris led Democrat Dan McCready by 905 votes, but the results were never certified because of allegations of election fraud tied to the Republican’s campaign. Harris opted not to run in the re-do of the election, and state Sen. Dan Bishop won a crowded GOP primary in May.

Recent polling from Inside Elections put McCready ahead of state Sen. Dan Bishop, 46 percent to 42 percent.

Any juicers on the ground there?






66 replies
  1. 1
    randy khan says:

    You know, the Bishop district is a very tough swing district.

    Only if you don’t cheat.

    ReplyReply
  2. 2
    Baud says:

    I hope not only for a win, but a win by a really wide margin that scares everyone in the GOP to death.

    ReplyReply
  3. 3
    JPL says:

    @Baud: Well hoping never hurts, but it doesn’t help either.

    ReplyReply
  4. 4
    Yarrow says:

    @Baud: This! I would like to see McCready win big. If that happens I’d expect a whole new round of R retirements.

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  5. 5
    Baud says:

    @JPL: Correct on both points.

    ReplyReply
  6. 6

    What time do the polls close? Can we make any guesses based on turnout?

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  7. 7
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    John, how’s your hand? Someone said you ended up going back to the ER a day or two later.

    (ETA: sorry for the O/T)

    ReplyReply
  8. 8
    Yarrow says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:
    Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

    ReplyReply
  9. 9
  10. 10
    debbie says:

    @Baud:

    I want a local GOP official to blame the loss on Trump.

    ReplyReply
  11. 11
    Steven Koetting says:

    NC GOP suing to keep 1 voting district open. They know they lost. They pray for a win. The orange menace will tweet “I was forced to campaign for a loser! And I knew it!”

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  12. 12
    Khef says:

    NC GOP suing to keep 1 voting district open. They know they lost. They pray for a win. The orange menace will tweet “I was forced to campaign for a loser! And I knew it!”

    ReplyReply
  13. 13
    debit says:

    @Khef: I hope we win it and that we see a wave of retirements afterward.

    ReplyReply
  14. 14
    Elizabelle says:

    I am so grateful that Hurricane Dorian did not deliver a blow like Hurricane Florence last year did (last September 12-15, in fact).

    Fingers crossed. Decided to stay home tonight so can watch the results. This is a big election, and I hope McCready has a convincing (and demoralizing to Republicans) win.

    It’s got to help that his opponent, Bishop, wrote that horrible bathroom bill that lost North Carolina the basketball tournament and who remembers what else.

    ReplyReply
  15. 15
    Mike in NC says:

    Bishop appears to be your standard do-nothing GOP good old boy. Fat Bastard appeared in ads where he calls McCready “a LIBERAL who wants OPEN BORDERS, and he likes SOCIALISM”. He said this while appearing to be gasping for air.

    May he stroke out if Bishop goes down.

    ReplyReply
  16. 16
    Anonymous At Work says:

    Why did the GOP leadership just announce to Republicans in the House that they should retire early? Calling that district “swing” only means that R+12 or less is going to be a tough fight with dubious outcomes, so “secure that Fox News sinecure now.”
    And if Democrats win governor or control of either chamber in your state, your ass is grass under re-districting.

    ReplyReply
  17. 17
    Elizabelle says:

    @Mike in NC: Has the bathroom bill been used by either side in campaigning?

    You’d mentioned Bishop was a do-nothing good old boy, but boy, did he do something: wikipedia:

    Bishop is best known as a strong opponent of LGBT rights. Comparing LGBT activists to the Taliban, he was the lead writer of North Carolina’s so-called “bathroom bill” which prohibited transgender individuals from using public restrooms other than those by their biological sex as defined on their birth certificates.The bill was signed into law. It stirred a substantial public backlash, and analysts estimated it cost the state of North Carolina $3.7 billion. It was subsequently overruled by a federal judge in Asheville in a ruling affirmed by the United States Supreme Court.

    Is that haunting him, at all?

    He’s a culture warrior.

    Bishop has attracted attention for statements attacking journalists, which have been likened to statements by Donald Trump’s. On one occasion, Bishop criticized the Raleigh press corps over coverage of the state budget, calling reporters the “jihad media.”

    Jihad media.

    ReplyReply
  18. 18
    J R in WV says:

    The news won’t be clear until the polls close in another 45 minutes or so. I’ve had emails that imply things are looking good for the Dem, number of early voters was thousands of Dems, less than 900 Repugnants.

    Won’t hold my breath but optimistic. Hope it’s a landslide for the Democratic Party!

    Spent the afternoon on a shopping errand into town. Was 97 while running around, saw on my dashboard on the way home 99 effing degrees!!!

    We are so fucked!!!!!!!!

    ReplyReply
  19. 19
    Mike in NC says:

    @Elizabelle: Have not seen any references lately to the infamous bathroom bill. Hopefully the Democrats hang it around his neck.

    ReplyReply
  20. 20
    MJS says:

    I’m really pissed that this election even needs to take place. It shouldn’t be that hard to say, in a two person race, that the one who doesn’t cheat, wins.

    ReplyReply
  21. 21

    @J R in WV:

    Spent the afternoon on a shopping errand into town. Was 97 while running around, saw on my dashboard on the way home 99 effing degrees!!!

    Yeah, it’s like that here, we call it Summer.

    ReplyReply
  22. 22
    trnc says:

    @MJS:

    I’m really pissed that this election even needs to take place. It shouldn’t be that hard to say, in a two person race, that the one who doesn’t cheat, wins.

    It would be one thing if the number of corruptly obtained absentee ballots made the difference, but I don’t think it did so that effectively means the legitimate votes went for the republican. Those voters shouldn’t have their vote nullified over something which they had no idea was happening.

    Also, I am really, really, really hoping that McCready wins because, aside from a win for us, that would be a repudiation of republican corruption.

    ReplyReply
  23. 23
    japa21 says:

    Has it been called yet?//

    ReplyReply
  24. 24
    MoeLarryAndJesus says:

    @Baud:

    Literally in some cases.

    ReplyReply
  25. 25
    MisterForkbeard says:

    @trnc: I’m actually of two minds about this.

    If a candidate cheats horrendously and does a ton of illegal stuff BUT that their margin of victory is larger than the amounts you can prove voted, I’d STILL want that position given to the runner-up or (ideally) that candidate gets thrown in jail and the election is held immediately about a week later.

    There needs to be some punishment for cheating beyond a fine.

    ReplyReply
  26. 26
    Elizabelle says:

    @MJS: Yeah, I don’t like that the GOP got a complete do-over with a fresher, nonimplicated candidate (albeit a whacko). Plus, $6 million plus in outside GOP spending.

    FWIW, the cheating candidate seems to have cheated the previous Republican incumbent out of the primary that year.

    Fingers crossed. Come on McCready.

    ReplyReply
  27. 27
    Elizabelle says:

    Checking the Charlotte Observer, no front webpage election results yet, but some woman has apparently gone Lorena Bobbit on her husband, after tying him up. A middle aged white woman. Would guess that local story might get … legs.

    ReplyReply
  28. 28
    japa21 says:

    According to FTFNYT, McCready is up 9 points with 9% in.

    ReplyReply
  29. 29
    Another Scott says:

    https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=09/10/2019&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=0

    US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 09 (VOTE FOR 1)
    Precincts Reported: 18 of 210
    View Contest Details
    NAME ON BALLOT PARTY BALLOT COUNT PERCENT
    Dan McCready DEM 47,439 54.15%
    Dan Bishop REP 39,727 45.35%
    Jeff Scott LIB 275 0.31%
    Allen Smith GRE 158 0.18%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  30. 30
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Elizabelle:

    From the Observer, a new story:

    The first returns in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District showed Democrat Dan McCready and Republican Dan Bishop locked in a close race Tuesday, as both sides prepared for a long night.

    With Mecklenburg votes still out, McCready led in early voting 50.5% to 49%. Democrats typically lead in early voting. Republicans traditionally turn out in greater numbers on Election Day.

    Early results were delayed when the State Board of Elections voted to extend voting in Mecklenburg’s Precinct 220 by 25 minutes after a gas leak forced the precinct’s closing at 5 p.m. Mecklenburg officials said voters were sent to an adjacent Mint Hill precinct.

    Fingers crossed. Mecklenburg County in recent years has become increasingly blue.

    ReplyReply
  31. 31
    japa21 says:

    With 16% reporting, McCready now with 13% lead.

    ReplyReply
  32. 32
    chopper says:

    @Another Scott:

    right now it’s 58D-41R with 20% precincts reporting. not saying that’s gonna stick, but even a 10 point D spread would be pretty fucking brutal.

    ReplyReply
  33. 33
    chopper says:

    @chopper:

    btw i was looking at the wrong race. ignore.

    ReplyReply
  34. 34
    NC doc says:

    I guess I am on the ground. I live in the NC-9. Registered Independent/UnAffiliiated

    Totally tired of the cheating that’s gone on in NC in the 19 years I’ve lived here. This is big.

    So is the recent NC court decision allowing my vote to count. WOW. It’s been a long time.

    The Mc Greedy ads were over the top. How did Dan Bishop vote on those laws? Probably YES. Republicans calling someone Liberal and greedy is Rich.

    ReplyReply
  35. 35
    Carolina Dave says:

    24% in. McCready up by 5%. Suburbs and others sick óf the. Trump BS. Could be a huge repudiation of the Orange meanace. And bathroom god botherers.

    ReplyReply
  36. 36
    Yarrow says:

    52% McCready (D) – 47.5% Bishop (R) with 25.2% reporting.

    ReplyReply
  37. 37
    evap says:

    50.5% McCready, 48.9% Bishop with 36% reporting. Does anybody know if outstanding votes are more likely Dem or Repub?

    ReplyReply
  38. 38
    JPL says:

    @evap: What happens is that even if he doesn’t win, we feel like losers. The reality is that the district is a big republican district and it was drawn that way. Ossoff lost when he ran in my district and I never thought a dem would win, but now I have Lucy McBath. We should never feel like losers. Close in republican districts is a starting point.

    ReplyReply
  39. 39
    japa21 says:

    @evap: McCready strongest county Mecklenburg has only 2% reporting, Bishops strongest, Union, has 73% reporting.

    ReplyReply
  40. 40

    The district went +11% for Trump. At the moment, it’s too close to call. That’s a win.

    ReplyReply
  41. 41
    Another Scott says:

    @japa21: Thanks for that. Bishop is up by about 500 votes at the moment on the NCSBE site. Around here, the big population centers come in later, so fingers crossed.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  42. 42
    MJS says:

    How much of Mecklenburg County is actually in the district?

    ReplyReply
  43. 43
    J R in WV says:

    @🐾BillinGlendaleCA:

    Yeah, it’s like that here, we call it Summer.

    No, no, you obviously don’t understand. It doesn’t get that hot here!!

    I did grow up 1800 feet higher than where I live now. Or so. My dad never got A/C in his cars, didn’t need it. Didn’t have central air in the house, didn’t need it. Now, I do have central air in our house, because it is hotter here than where I grew up — 1800 feet of elevation will do that.

    But 99 degrees is a whole different egg, my friend. It’s a humid, choking kind of heat. And I was running errands, carrying heavy parcels out to the car, sweating! SO SAD!!!

    ReplyReply
  44. 44
    Anonymous At Work says:

    Bishop 49.9% to McCready 48.5% with 55% in. Few hundred votes.
    Not sure about what precincts are still out.

    ReplyReply
  45. 45

    @J R in WV: I know, we had the monsoon flow along with the 105 degree heat, it was lovely.

    ReplyReply
  46. 46
    Eolirin says:

    @Anonymous At Work: Mecklenburg has the most outstanding votes, and seems to be breaking fairly strongly for McCready, but I don’t know what the distribution of the remaining precincts are. The vote gap is narrowing a bit right now though.

    ReplyReply
  47. 47

    This looks way too close.

    ReplyReply
  48. 48
    Eolirin says:

    Mecklenburg needs to provide more than a 2.5k additional margin for McCready, I have no idea if that’s likely or possible.

    ReplyReply
  49. 49
    Redshift says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    This looks way too close.

    If there’s one thing I’ve learned from years of waiting for returns to come in, it’s that no one but the campaign professionals really has any idea of whether it’s close or not. They know where they need to get votes from and whether those results are in yet or not, and we don’t. That’s even more the case in a single congressional district.

    Try not to get too caught up in the counting. Though they play it like a horse race, it’s not. All the votes have already happened, what’s happening between when the polls close and when the final results are in is just quirks of counting order.

    ReplyReply
  50. 50
    japa21 says:

    Important to remember that under normal circumstances, this election would have been called for the GOP hours ago.

    ReplyReply
  51. 51
    J R in WV says:

    @japa21:

    This is good advice. When I get up tomorrow, or when I get up with insomnia at 4 am, the count will be over, except for the litigation and criminal investigations. And then we will know who won the first round.

    Later on, much later, we’ll know who was seated in the House.

    ReplyReply
  52. 52
    MJS says:

    Since this appears to be trending away from us, I’m going to exhibit some bitterness and say, as a white, somewhat old, person, what the fuck is wrong with old white people? Yes, I know this is a solidly Republican district, but these aren’t ordinary times. There are anchors on Fox fucking News that are calling the president a liar. There are any number of Republican pundits calling him deranged. But these fucking idiots vote for someone who idolizes Trump. It makes me sick to my stomach. This shit shouldn’t even be close.

    ReplyReply
  53. 53
    japa21 says:

    Should point out that there is a reason this hasn’t been called. The precincts in Mecklenburg must be friendly toward McCready or it already would have been called.

    ReplyReply
  54. 54
    japa21 says:

    Called for Bishop

    ReplyReply
  55. 55
    Ruckus says:

    @MJS:
    It’s called racism, plain and simple. It probably has an element of stupid there but it’s major reasoning is racism. There may be also an element of conservatism involved. Conservatism about maintaining the white race.

    ReplyReply
  56. 56
    Elizabelle says:

    @japa21: Oh no.

    ReplyReply
  57. 57
    AliceBlue says:

    I think McCready underperformed pretty badly. According to the liveblog over at DKos, he carried Richmond County the first time but lost it by five points this time around.

    ReplyReply
  58. 58
    Elizabelle says:

    Well, I hope the Republicans and those who did not vote get what they wanted. Good and hard. Wondering what the margin is.

    North Carolina is such a beautiful state, but will break your heart.

    ReplyReply
  59. 59
    Another Scott says:

    Supposedly Donnie won by 12 points, right? The spread here was 50.8 / 48.6 or 2.2%, so we still made up ~ 10%. That’s been the step-up for lots and lots of these contested special elections. If Democrats do 10% points better in 2020 than they did in 2016, then there is going to be a massive, massive wave election.

    Don’t lose hope. We still have to fight for every vote we can get, but things are looking very good for 2020.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  60. 60
    Elizabelle says:

    @Another Scott: Yes. Eyes on the prize. 2020.

    ReplyReply
  61. 61
    cmorenc says:

    @AliceBlue: A far higher total # of voters turned out in the NC-9 Congressional election in 2018 than in the 2019 special election:

    2018: with 100% in:
    McReady (D) 136,341, Harris (R) 139,246, Scott (L) 5,130 TOTAL: 280,717 (inc. L); 275,587 (just D +R)

    2019: with 99% in:
    McReady (D) 90,824, Bishop (R) 94,984 TOTAL: 185,808 – just 67,4% of 2018 turnout

    …but McReady’s % of electorate who did turn out was nearly identical in both 2018 and 2019, so the loss isn’t simply because fewer Ds turned out in a special one-off election rather than a regular congressional election. It appears the R’s support fell off by a near-identical % 2019 vs 2018.

    If the Ds capture either NC state house in 2020, the prospects of which greatly improved with the state court’s invalidating of the GOP’s state district gerrymandering – the 9th district will likely be redrawn such as to be less favorable to the GOP in 2022 and beyond.

    ReplyReply
  62. 62
    MJS says:

    @Another Scott: I try to be optimistic, but the fact is that even with all we learned about Trump just since November of 2018, the Democrat got a slightly lower percentage today than in November. Worse, approximately 48,000 people who voted for McCready in November couldn’t be fucking bothered to cast a vote in this election. He got about 138,000 votes in November and is going to end up with about 90,000 today. That is absolutely pathetic and I hope everyone of those 48,000 fuck-faces suffers in some way because of their inaction.

    ReplyReply
  63. 63
    cmorenc says:

    @MJS: OTOH, apx the same number and % of asshats who voted for Harris (R) in 2018 couldn’t be bothered to turn themselves out in the 2019 special election as the fuck-face sufferers who voted for McReady in 2018 but couldn’t be bothered to turn themselves out in the 2019 special election. And so the apathy was equally distributed on both sides, FWIW.

    ReplyReply
  64. 64
    MJS says:

    @cmorenc: It’s inexcusable that 48,000 previous Dem voters decided to sit this one out. Imagine the headlines had even half of them showed up to vote. Instead we’ll get Trump “comeback” stories and a thousand more Trump voter profiles.

    ReplyReply
  65. 65
    MJS says:

    @cmorenc: Dem voters have no reason to be apathetic. The opportunity to put one more roadblock in Trump’s way, and another blight on his record should have been enough motivation to vote, if kids in prison, mass shootings, etc. aren’t enough.

    ReplyReply
  66. 66
    Richard Guhl says:

    Charlie Cook of the Cook Report says tonight’s results means that about 31 more GOP House seats are now in play to be flipped. We should see more GOP Congress persons head for the doors.

    ReplyReply

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