Meaningless Poll Open Thread

Fresh poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa has good news for Senator Warren’s campaign:

So, instead of Warren and Sanders duking it out for the lefty vote, it looks like Biden and Sanders are having the Battle of the Retreads.

Excerpt from an article in Iowa Starting Line:

Elizabeth Warren’s early investment in Iowa is paying off…

The horserace numbers reflect a shake-up that those of us on the ground in Iowa have been seeing for a while…

The other good news for Warren is that her support appears to be very broad in the party. She leads every age demographic (even surpassing Biden in the oldest age bracket, 31% to 28%) except for the youngest. Sanders has a 14-point lead here among the 18-34 range with 34%.

The article also notes that Senator Harris is going all-in on the Iowa caucus now, which seems to be the smart play. That’s a fairly recent development, according to ISL. We’ll see how the numbers shake out down the road.

All absolutely bereft of meaning at this stage, of course! Open thread!






245 replies
  1. 1
    Joe Falco says:

    Meaningless but gives me hope that Warren will continue to go up and up in polls.

  2. 2
    Elizabelle says:

    I have always thought Biden is in there to take Bernie out. Whether that was his intent or not. Carry on, Trans Am Joe.

    This nomination belongs to Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris. Both excellent choices.

  3. 3
    NotMax says:

    Sanders has a 14-point lead here among the 18-34 range with 34%.

    Surely an argument for raising the voting age to 35.

    :)

  4. 4
  5. 5
    Tom Levenson says:

    Go SPW!

  6. 6
    Tom Levenson says:

    @NotMax: Indeed.

  7. 7
    debit says:

    @Elizabelle: 100 percent agreement here. My personal preference leans to Harris, but I would be thrilled with Warren too.

  8. 8
    Elizabelle says:

    @debit: I want them both! On the same ticket. East Coast and West Coast and smart and fighting for us.

  9. 9
    NotMax says:

    @Elizabelle

    Color me skeptical but I don’t think a wide swath of America would go for an all female ticket. Just to be clear, I have no qualms about it.

  10. 10
    MattF says:

    Personally, I favor Harris— but I think Warren would be a fine candidate. Either of them would look great compared to Trump. Specifically, if Trump tries to bully either of them, (and I’m sure he’d try) it would be a massacre.

  11. 11
    Elizabelle says:

    Elizabeth Warren connects with people. So does Kamala Harris.

    We have a country to heal, and need someone with brains, guts, and expertise. Who can see the long game.

    There are too many deplorables, but Trump is beatable. He is the worst president in U.S. history. Surpasses Buchanan (who was a victim to forces in place for decades; it takes years to build the stupid.)

  12. 12
    West of the Rockies says:

    How is the dreadful Tulsi so high up? She’s sort of our party’s version of, what, Santorum or Buchanan (a clueless knucklehead).

  13. 13
    Elizabelle says:

    @NotMax:

    Yes. And a woman was “supposed to” be elected before a person of color.

    Not doubting there is lots of misogyny out there. We just have to turn out our voters, and make sure their votes are securely cast and counted.

  14. 14
    patrick II says:

    @<a
    There is the opinion that if Warren or Harris win the nomination it would be wise to balance the ticket with a male. The most likely reason Beto is still in the race. But both Warren and Harris are such exceptional people I would like to seel the two women run. Seeing either of them debate Pence would be worth it.

  15. 15
    Betty Cracker says:

    @West of the Rockies: I agree Gabbard shouldn’t even be polling at 2% since she’s a weak-minded kook, but I wouldn’t call that high up.

    ETA: I saw an elderly gent with a Gabbard campaign shirt the other day at the supermarket. It surprised me since I live in Deploraville!

  16. 16
    MattF says:

    @West of the Rockies: She’s got the troll demographic. Use your internal pie filter.

  17. 17
    Chyron HR says:

    It’s shameful how a plurality of Iowa voters are colluding to rig the primary against Bernie. Truly it is in sadness and not anger that he wants to destroy the human race for denying him.

  18. 18
    dmsilev says:

    @West of the Rockies: 2% is a tiny amount of support. There are enough idiots and trolls out there that I can imagine her getting that much without trouble. I don’t think she’s qualified for the next debate (and the cutoff point for getting enough support is only a week or so off), so that will cut her visibility a fair amount.

  19. 19
    Nicole says:

    @NotMax:

    Color me skeptical but I don’t think a wide swath of America would go for an all female ticket. Just to be clear, I have no qualms about it.

    That was my initial thought, but I read something somewhere (here, for all I remember) that said an all woman ticket is not necessarily a negative because there are men who have a knee-jerk reaction to the idea of a woman being a man’s immediate boss (woman President over a male VP). Who knows, misogyny is an insidious and complicated evil.

    I do think an all-white ticket would be a mistake. The Democrats need to stop attempting to lure the white vote and focus on turning out their own base.

  20. 20
    Kylroy says:

    @West of the Rockies: Not even Santorum or Buchanan. GOP equivalent would be a libertarian so far outside the party’s mainstream he adopts some Dem policies – Bill Richardson, maybe?

  21. 21
    dmsilev says:

    @Chyron HR: 83% of likely Iowa voters are members of the DNC Establishment.

  22. 22
    low-tech cyclist says:

    A few thoughts about this poll and this pollster:

    1) Change Research has a C+ rating at 538. 538 is rather liberal in handing out gentleman’s C’s to crappy pollsters.
    2) If you look at all of Change Research’s recent Dem nomination polls at 538, you’ll notice that Warren’s doing way better in Change Research polls than in anyone else’s.
    3) Between (1) and (2), as a total Warren fan boy, today’s Change Research polls peg my too-good-to-be-true-ometer. Damn thing’s buzzing so loud, I can’t get any work done. I’d like to believe Warren’s doing that well, but while she may be doing well, I know she isn’t running well ahead of the pack in Iowa and Wisconsin. It just ain’t happening. Maybe later, but not yet.

  23. 23
    chris says:

    Strap in. ODNI changes hands today.

    This “is a defining day in the Trump administration’s national security structure — they have finally cleared out all the national security positions in terms of senior officials,” said David Priess, a former CIA official who delivered the president’s daily briefing in the administrations of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
    “With all the twists and turns in the Trump administration and the national security establishment and intelligence community over the past two years, at least there has been stability in one way — the DNI and his principal deputy have quietly remained an island of steadiness,” Priess said. “As of August 15, that changes.” Link

  24. 24
    jl says:

    We’ve seen big swings in polls several times, and this could be an outlier, so it doesn’t mean much, but it does mean something.
    There are three types of Democratic presidential candidates, so far: those that are stuck at 1 or 2 percent, those that have seen big swings in support, and one who has seen a steady increase in support (Warren).

    If other polls replicate these results, then that is very good news. As voters see what a great president Warren would be, support grows and doesn’t go back.

    @low-tech cyclist: thanks for info on this poll. Results might mean more if Warren has taken a big jump in this poll, assuming their bias in terms of levels is constant. So, may still be good news, even adjusting for the quality of the poll, at least in measuring level of support.

  25. 25
    SFAW says:

    @dmsilev:

    83% of likely Iowa voters are members of the DNC Establishment.

    For a moment, I wondered why you picked that number.

    Nice one.

  26. 26
    NotMax says:

    @Elizabelle

    May as well get it out in the open. Similar to why Wilmer (who won’t be the candidate, consider it a hypothetical) would be hobbled from the get-go. Although they may not voice it out loud, there’s a swath who would balk at voting for a Jew.

    Still hold that Lieberman motivated enough people to not vote for the ticket to negatively impact Gore.

    @West of the Rockies

    She’s mostly terrible and has no business running, but comparing her to Santorum is hitting below the belt.

  27. 27
    cmorenc says:

    Heard Sen. Harris say yesterday on CNN that as President, she would deal with the deadlock in Congress about gun control legislation via an executive order requiring background checks. While I agree with her on the importance of that as a public safety policy goal, IMHO proclaiming the executive order approach during the campaign will set herself up for negative campaign ads by the GOP that will likely unfortunately resonate with a significant part of the electorate outside the GOP base who are otherwise supportive of background-check legislation. Her suggested executive order maneuver is something far better attempted *after* she’s President and the GOP is still furiously trying to block any sort of truly effective legislation, and *not* as a campaign ploy to attract a larger share of support in the primaries/caucuses from the D base.

    Our NUMBER ONE OBJECTIVE is to nominate a candidate who can beat Donald Trump – we don’t need more unforced campaign errors (see also, e.g. Warren’s advocacy for doing away with private health insurance) which may be good progressive policy but terrible campaign strategy bc it tends to repel a portion of voters who would otherwise be inclined to vote D.

  28. 28
    Eolirin says:

    A Warren/Harris or Harris/Warren ticket would preclude an AG Harris or SEC head or Senate majority leader Warren.

    Neither of them should be made VP. Their talents are better served elsewhere.

  29. 29
    Elizabelle says:

    @Eolirin: But if it’s what it takes to win the White House, that is immeasurable.

    White House first, and then pick the Cabinet.

  30. 30
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Kylroy:

    GOP equivalent would be a libertarian so far outside the party’s mainstream he adopts some Dem policies – Bill Richardson, maybe?

    Bill Richardson has been a Democrat for most of his political career, although as a young man he worked for a GOP Congressman and was in the State Department during the Nixon administration.

    I’ve never thought of him as a far-out libertarian. Never.

  31. 31
    Baud says:

    @NotMax:

    Right. So disappointing.

  32. 32
    Baud says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    ETA: I saw an elderly gent with a Gabbard campaign shirt the other day at the supermarket. It surprised me since I live in Deploraville!

    Seems perfectly consistent to me.

  33. 33
    Eolirin says:

    @Elizabelle: I don’t really think the VP pick is gonna be that big a deal if either of them is the presidental nominee. Putting Beto or Buttigieg in the VP slot seems like a better play to me if you’re going to pick from the other candidates. Or Castro.

  34. 34
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @SFAW:

    83% of likely Iowa voters are members of the DNC Establishment.

    For a moment, I wondered why you picked that number.

    Nice one.

    Check your math 😉

  35. 35
    artem1s says:

    No matter what the polls say, I hope the delegates have been well coached to deal with what ever bullshit the Sandernista’s decide to pull during the caucus. Given their level of frustration at being ‘robbed’ of the nomination last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to go full metal Chicago Democratic Convention. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were even more threatening and disruptive than they were in 2016.

  36. 36
    Kent says:

    @cmorenc:

    Heard Sen. Harris say yesterday on CNN that as President, she would deal with the deadlock in Congress about gun control legislation via an executive order requiring background checks. While I agree with her on the importance of that as a public safety policy goal, IMHO proclaiming the executive order approach during the campaign will set herself up for negative campaign ads by the GOP that will likely unfortunately resonate with a significant part of the electorate outside the GOP base who are otherwise supportive of background-check legislation. Her suggested executive order maneuver is something far better attempted *after* she’s President and the GOP is still furiously trying to block any sort of truly effective legislation, and *not* as a campaign ploy to attract a larger share of support in the primaries/caucuses from the D base.

    Our NUMBER ONE OBJECTIVE is to nominate a candidate who can beat Donald Trump – we don’t need more unforced campaign errors (see also, e.g. Warren’s advocacy for doing away with private health insurance) which may be good progressive policy but terrible campaign strategy bc it tends to repel a portion of voters who would otherwise be inclined to vote D.

    You think advocating background checks for gun purchases is an unforced error? Universal background checks polls at over 90% Find me another major policy proposal of any kind that has this level of near universal support. Sheesh. Honesly most swing voter types don’t even know the difference between a statute and executive order.

    In any event this election is going to create the biggest fucking right-wing hurricane of feces we have ever seen no matter who the Dem candidate is and no matter what their positions are. You think the GOP gives the slightest shit about whether their upcoming character assassination attacks are grounded in reality? Look at Trump for fuck’s sake. We are way way past reality-based campaigning.

    Honestly I don’t think it really matters much what the Dem policy positions actually are. What will matter is having a candidate with the media savvy and charisma to push through all the slime and get people inspired. I think both Warren and Harris have that. I don’t think Sanders or Biden do. They are both too old and slow to keep up with Trump and his stormtroopers.

  37. 37
    germy says:

    GE shares fall after report claims $38B in accounting fraud

    Harry Markopolos describes “a bigger fraud than Enron”

    https://dailygazette.com/article/2019/08/15/ge-shares-fall-after-report-claims-38b-in-accounting-fraud

  38. 38
    jl says:

    I’m not going to worry wort too much about candidates supposed gaffes, many of which are just minor flubs that mean nothing but social media trolls try to blow up into something for electioneering purposes, or the corporate media push and flack for ratings, and desire to fill a lot of air time at minimum cost. Also not going to worry about being perceived as being too old, or being a woman or Jewish.

    Remember that FDR was elected despite having a serious physical handicap, and had problems with somewhat inconsistent policy stances, since he wanted to help people in ways that demanded more government spending, but also campaign as ‘responsible’ fiscally, and promised he would balance the budget. GOP tried to use both as attacks during FDR;s first presidential campaign.

    If a good candidate stands behind policies that voters think are needed to move the country and improve their lives, and candidate shows commitment and can explain things well, they can get elected.

  39. 39
    Baud says:

    @germy:

    Fascinating.

  40. 40
    Kay says:

    Oh, I’m pleased. She works so hard! She should be rewarded :)

    Also, I don’t care what anyone says- Buttigieg is very talented and Democrats are lucky to have him. If he was a Republican he’d already have his own show on Fox. Fourth for the mayor of South Bend who no one ever heard of a year ago is something.

  41. 41
    NotMax says:

    @germy

    $35 billion here, $35 billion there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.

    :)

  42. 42
    SFAW says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Check your math

    OK, you can check it for me, see if I came up with the correct figure:

    Bernie voters = 17 percent
    Total voters = Bernie voters + non-Bernie voters (a/k/a “DNC Establishment”) = 100 percent
    Therefore: Non-Berners/DNC Establishment = 100 – 17 = 83

  43. 43
    Citizen Alan says:

    @patrick II:

    My biggest objection to either Warren or Harris serving as Veep to the other is that neither Massachusetts nor California is going for Trump. I strongly believe that the most important job for a VP nominee is to be able to bring in electoral college votes. As I’ve said many times, I think Gore would have won easily if he’d picked Ben Nelson over Holy Joe. That’s also why I’m glad Beto is hanging on.

  44. 44
    HalfAssedHomesteader says:

    @Betty Cracker: Well, she’s got that glistening cleavage. That has a long half-life on some men.

  45. 45
    Yutsano says:

    @SFAW: You forgot the Tulsi numbers. She’s gonna get robbed too!

  46. 46
    jl says:

    @Baud: Baud 2020! campaign has a more fraud and malfeasance than that, just can’t get much above the ten or twenty buck range, even when you put them all together. Sad.

  47. 47
    MattF says:

    OT. I know that Rick Wilson departs materially from the concept of an impartial commenter, but… here, Mr. Scaramucci gets the treatment:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/08/15/anthony-scaramucci-is-how-you-got-trump/

  48. 48
    germy says:

    @NotMax: Markopolos is the guy who blew the whistle on Madoff. So he knows about fraud.

    (He knows a thing or two because he’s seen a thing or two.)

  49. 49
    Baud says:

    @jl:

    You saying financing my campaign with credit default swaps was unwise?

  50. 50
    Citizen Alan says:

    @Eolirin:

    Honestly, I’d kinda like to see Supreme Court Justice Kamala Harris. It would be nice to see a black person on the Court who wasn’t self-loathing about skin color to the point of madness.

  51. 51
    justawriter says:

    Just 172 days until the first vote in Iowa is cast.

  52. 52
    low-tech cyclist says:

    @jl:

    @low-tech cyclist: thanks for info on this poll. Results might mean more if Warren has taken a big jump in this poll, assuming their bias in terms of levels is constant. So, may still be good news, even adjusting for the quality of the poll, at least in measuring level of support.

    Apparently they have polled Iowa once before, but it was all the way back in May (can’t find the results), so it would be hard to compare – we already know her support has greatly increased since then, and that’s about all it would tell us.

  53. 53
    SFAW says:

    @Yutsano:

    You forgot the Tulsi numbers. She’s gonna get robbed too!

    Her percentage is within the margin of error, therefore not counted.

  54. 54
    germy says:

    @MattF: Rick Wilson is how you get Trump. He’s the guy with the broom at the curling tournament.

  55. 55
    randy khan says:

    To put these numbers in terms of delegates (which doesn’t work quite as cleanly in the caucuses as it does in a primary, but we’ll just make believe), here’s what those poll results would translate to out of the 41 pledged delegates available in Iowa:

    Warren 19
    Biden 11
    Sanders 11
    Everybody else: 0

    Now, some delegates are awarded on a district basis and some are awarded statewide, so there could be variation from these numbers, but you get the idea. It actually is pretty hard to get any meaningful number of delegates unless you finish in the top 3.

  56. 56
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @germy: I can’t wait for the class action lawyers handling the fraud claims to make millions while I and my fellow shareholders each get a coupon for $1 off a pack of GE light bulbs.

  57. 57
    MattF says:

    @germy: Point taken.

  58. 58
    feebog says:

    I am firmly behind Harris at this point. My problem with Warren is that she let Trump completely flummox her over the Native American heritage issue. This should have been a blip on the radar screen, but Warren’s missteps in addressing the issue blew it completely out of proportion. I also think Harris matches up better than Warren on the debate stage with Trump. If Warren wins the nomination I will enthusiastically support her, I just think Harris is the better choice at this point.

  59. 59
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @Baud: you would have been fine with collateralized mortgage-backed securities

  60. 60
    zhena gogolia says:

    @feebog:

    I’m with you. I’m disappointed Harris doesn’t have more momentum.

  61. 61
    NotMax says:

    @jl

    Remember that FDR was elected despite having a serious physical handicap

    The degree of which was not generally known by the public and by gentlemen’s agreement not reported by the day’s MSM. FDR himself sought to squelch questioning of how much he was disabled when he was filmed ‘walking’ to and standing at the lectern to nominate Al Smith in ’28 (the Happy Warrior speech). This continued while he was in office – there is but a single photo of him in a wheelchair while president.

  62. 62
    West of the Rockies says:

    @dmsilev:

    When I say “so high up” I mean not in % points, but being preferred to the remaining candidates. Hell, I’d think Hickenlooper or Inslee would be more highly regarded.

  63. 63

    @Steve in the ATL: Obviously you went into the wrong kind of lawyering.

  64. 64
    germy says:

    @Steve in the ATL: I remember when florescent bulbs first became a thing. I bought an expensive pack of GE bulbs, expecting them to last a long time. They all burned out after less than a year.

    GE is a brand I try to avoid nowadays.

  65. 65
    SFAW says:

    @feebog:

    I am firmly behind Harris at this point. My problem with Warren is that she let Trump completely flummox her over the Native American heritage issue. This should have been a blip on the radar screen, but Warren’s missteps in addressing the issue blew it completely out of proportion.

    No kidding. I must hear about that AT LEAST 15-40 times per day. Clearly a disqualifier far worse than not being sure if you wanted to have a beer with her.

  66. 66
    MattF says:

    @Steve in the ATL: And there’s the ‘BaudBucks’ cryptocurrency.

  67. 67
    SFAW says:

    @Steve in the ATL:

    you would have been fine with collateralized mortgage-backed securities

    Oh, bullshit.

    Tulips are the way to go.

  68. 68
    Baud says:

    @zhena gogolia:

    Me too. Not because I’m sold on her but because I prefer to have more than just Warren challenging Bernie and Biden.

  69. 69
    TenguPhule says:

    General Electric shares plunge after report alleges it’s a ‘bigger fraud than Enron’

    A whistleblower who warned regulators about Bernie Madoff released a report alleging that General Electric is short on cash and hiding $38 billion in losses.

    Oh shit.

  70. 70
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @🐾BillinGlendaleCA: I am reminded of that every day I wake up in Beaumont, Texas or Eutaw, Alabama, or Mishawaka, Indiana….

    @germy: I don’t buy their light bulbs, but I do buy most of my turbines, locomotives, and mining software from them.

  71. 71

    @MattF:

    She’s got the troll demographic.

    Yep. Gabbard is a pretty out-there backbencher who’s getting a huge blast of free propaganda from Russia, 4chan, Matt Taibbi, and the Intercept crowd, but I repeat myself.

  72. 72
    TenguPhule says:

    @SFAW:

    Tulips are the way to go.

    Weak. Tiger-repelling rocks are the in thing now. //

  73. 73
    geg6 says:

    @Nicole:

    I do think an all-white ticket would be a mistake. The Democrats need to stop attempting to lure the white vote and focus on turning out their own base.

    I keep seeing people say this here, but so far, the numbers do not match this hot take. Last polling I saw broken down by race/ethnicity showed three white people as the top tier among black voters. I’ll vote for Harris or Booker or Castro, and happily, but I’m not so sure my black neighbors will agree with me. They seem to prefer Biden, Warren and Wilmer so far. This could change, but I am quite hesitant to ascribe any motivations to a group of people to which I do not belong. I’ll take their word for what they prefer.

  74. 74
    TenguPhule says:

    @West of the Rockies:

    How is the dreadful Tulsi so high up? She’s sort of our party’s version of, what, Santorum or Buchanan (a clueless knucklehead).

    Noun, Verb, I served in the National Guard.

  75. 75
    SFAW says:

    @TenguPhule:

    Tiger-repelling rocks are the in thing now.

    Screw that. I plant radishes to keep away the wolverines. Works like a charm in this area (central MA).

  76. 76
    NotMax says:

    @germy

    Guessing you are referring to CFL bulbs? Fluorescent lighting (the tubes) dates back to the 1930s.

  77. 77
    AliceBlue says:

    @zhena gogolia: I’m with both of you. Warren doesn’t have that don’t-fuck-with-me mean girl streak that Harris has, which I think is necessary, especially on the debate stage.

  78. 78
    MattF says:

    @TenguPhule: The alleged losses come in long-term care insurance. That’s an ideal opportunity for a big oopsie.

  79. 79
    different-church-lady says:

    If it winds up being Trump v. Warren, we are really going to find out what the true nature of this country is.

  80. 80
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @MattF: I love that he manipulates it so it tracks the value of skeeball prize tickets

  81. 81

    @jl:

    FDR was elected despite having a serious physical handicap

    Which he studiously hid from public view. I seem to recall reading he had somebody go to WV and talk about how he was a great athlete.

    ETA see also the esteemed NotMax’s comment

  82. 82
    Baud says:

    @MattF:

    It’s how I plan to pay for Baud!Care!

  83. 83
    NotMax says:

    @SFAW

    Gold star for the Hudson & Landry reference.

  84. 84
    Baud says:

    @different-church-lady:

    Aren’t we going to find that out regardless?

  85. 85
    SFAW says:

    @NotMax:

    Gold star for the Hudson & Landry reference.

    Damn, you’re good.

  86. 86
    Baud says:

    @MattF:

    The alleged losses come in long-term care insurance. That’s an ideal opportunity for a big oopsie.

    “We counted on everyone to die suddenly due to climate change.”

  87. 87
    germy says:

    @NotMax: Yes, CFL bulbs.

    Pardon my redundancy.

    Speaking of W.C. Fields, I read a collection of his personal correspondence, and he really hated FDR. Called him “old gumlegs” in letters to his friends. A funny man, but reactionary as hell. I won’t even mention the horrible will he left.

  88. 88
    satby says:

    @Kay:

    Also, I don’t care what anyone says- Buttigieg is very talented and Democrats are lucky to have him.

    he’s a wonderful communicator of Democratic values. He’s going to be a great surrogate for whoever gets the nomination, and I hope he gets a cabinet position or the VP slot too.

  89. 89
    geg6 says:

    @feebog:

    Her performance in the last debate was what stopped any momentum she had up until then, I think. I was embarrassed for her, much as I was for Uncle Joe. Neither of them covered themselves in glory there.

  90. 90
    zhena gogolia says:

    @West of the Rockies:

    She’s getting help from parts to the East, I would bet.

  91. 91
    Betty Cracker says:

    Trump just retweeted an accusation that the FBI could have stopped the Parkland shooter and women’s gymnastics doctor who molested athletes but they were too busy trying to “take Trump down.” Jesus Tapdancing Christ.

  92. 92

    @satby: I would not be hugely surprised to see Buttigieg with a VP spot; I think cabinet is all but guaranteed, assuming the next year or so goes smoothly for him. (And that our nominee wins.)

  93. 93
    rikyrah says:

    @germy:

    GE shares fall after report claims $38B in accounting fraud

    Harry Markopolos describes “a bigger fraud than Enron”

    OOOHHHHHHH

  94. 94
    jl says:

    @NotMax: @Major Major Major Major: True. but I think true because FDR put a lot of work into it and addressed the problem effectively so GOP couldn’t make an effective attack. At the time, GOP thought it would be a slam dunk effective attack and would finish off FDR.. Obviously other potential lines of attack on similar bogus issues cannot be addressed in the same way, but I think the lesson is that same. There are other ways of addressing baseless attacks.

    I’ll try to not put in my usual last blast here about how if some people want to spend their time worrying that no matter what the Democrats do, no matter who is the candidate, the situation is hopeless, and any horseshit the GOP and Trumpsters pump out will work, well it’s a free country. But I guess my attempt failed.

  95. 95
    Immanentize says:

    @feebog:
    But, despite personal preferences, Warren seems to be favored by, you know, more voters than Harris.

  96. 96
    germy says:

    President Warren, Attorney General Harris.

    Or President Harris, Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve Warren.

    I’d be satisfied either way.

  97. 97
    satby says:

    @Steve in the ATL: next time you’re in Mishawaka, let me know. That’s right next door, and I know where all the non-chain restaurants are… mostly not in Mishawaka.

  98. 98
    jl says:

    @Baud: IOUs for bags of aluminum cans are not credit default swaps.

  99. 99
    Baud says:

    @Immanentize:

    Kind of irrelevant right now. Only the votes matter.

  100. 100
    zhena gogolia says:

    I hate what they’ve done to YouTube.

  101. 101
    Betty Cracker says:

    @satby & @Kay: I’m with y’all on Buttigieg — he’s a rare talent, as PBO observed a couple of years back. Takes one to know one!

  102. 102
    Baud says:

    @jl:

    It’s part of my Green New Deal.

  103. 103
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @satby: will do. As I recall, my fanciest meal was at Panera.

  104. 104
    MattF says:

    @Betty Cracker: I suppose he’s expecting his followers will believe him. The Kool-Ade is next.

  105. 105
    Immanentize says:

    @Baud: voter preferences oddly turn into votes.

    I stated early on that Harris was my fave. But, for elections sake, Warren is great and will suffice.

  106. 106

    @jl: IOU’s for cans, we get cash* here in Beautiful Downtown Glendale.

    *Getting ready to head to the recycling place to drop off the cans in my car.

  107. 107
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @SFAW:

    Ah, my apologies. From your “Nice one” comment I somehow thought you were referencing the magic 27% number.

    Sorry, SFAW.

  108. 108
    satby says:

    @Steve in the ATL: 😢
    Sad… And probably one of the better choices.

  109. 109

    @zhena gogolia: Still ain’t seeing what you described, but I’ve been moving my videos to Vimeo anyway.

  110. 110
    Baud says:

    @Immanentize:

    Not 170 days out. I’m fine with almost any of them FWIW.

  111. 111
    TenguPhule says:

    @different-church-lady:

    If it winds up being Trump v. Warren, we are really going to find out what the true nature of this country is.

    I’m afraid we won’t like what we find.

  112. 112
    zhena gogolia says:

    @🐾BillinGlendaleCA:

    Someone said it’s a thing they’re trying out on selected users. I’m just one of the (un)lucky ones. The thumbnails are now the size of a man’s hand.

  113. 113
    WhstsMyNym says:

    @zhena gogolia:

    I hate what they’ve done to YouTube

    Something in particular?

  114. 114
    zhena gogolia says:

    @TenguPhule:

    I’m afraid it will be a replay of 2016. Or 1972. But I’ll do what I can to keep that from happening.

  115. 115
    TenguPhule says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    Trump just retweeted an accusation that the FBI could have stopped the Parkland shooter and women’s gymnastics doctor who molested athletes but they were too busy trying to “take Trump down.”

    “ALL CRIME IS CAUSED BY DEEP STATE!” //s

  116. 116
    NotMax says:

    @zhena gogolia

    As reported, it’s not something everyone is seeing. Dunno if the experiment is based on geography (or maybe ISP) but in any case you might trying clearing your cache AND cookies and see if that bumps you back into the normal view.

  117. 117

    @zhena gogolia: Ah, a ‘selective volunteer’ as my dad used to say.

  118. 118
    karen marie says:

    @Betty Cracker: Putin’s handing them out like candy?

  119. 119
    zhena gogolia says:

    @NotMax:

    Oh, God, when someone says “clear your cache and your cookies” I get a rash. I know I’ve done it before but I have no idea how.

  120. 120
    feebog says:

    @Immanentize:

    In August 2007 Clinton was leading Obama by 15 points. We all know how that turned out.

  121. 121
    satby says:

    @Betty Cracker: I met President Obama years before he was even a state senator, while he was an organizer on the South Side. And everyone who met him knew he was going to do amazing things. Now I’ve met another young politician who really seems to have the qualities President Obama did. Coming from very different backgrounds and life experiences, but sharing a decency and call to public service. It’s been a very hopeful thing for me in this political climate.

  122. 122
    TenguPhule says:

    Hail Satan.

    Over the past century of popular culture, Satan has acquired the souls of delta blues musicians, incited youth rebellions, possessed small children and goats, impregnated unsuspecting women and transmitted evil through backwards lyrics on heavy metal records. But recently, to paraphrase the Rolling Stones, the nature of his game has been puzzling us.

    The forces aligned against Satan have become so objectionable that he no longer looks like the bad guy. They include such groups as the Westboro Baptist church, notorious for its hate speech against LGBTQ people, Jews, Muslims and other groups, all of which it condemns as “satanic frauds”. There’s the Trump administration, in league with the US religious right, which has been aggressively pushing anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ legislation, not to mention engaging in overt Islamophobia. Those forces would also include the 20,000 people who recently signed an online petition condemning the Amazon TV adaptation of the cult novel Good Omens – about a demon and an angel – as “another step to make satanism appear normal”.

    Now, a documentary threatens to rehabilitate Satan. Directed by Penny Lane, Hail Satan? follows the early adventures of the Satanic Temple, an institution that has hit upon the perfect counter-strategy to the evangelicals’ efforts to recouple church and state. Based in Salem, Massachusetts (where else?), the Satanic Temple is officially recognised as a tax-exempt religious organisation. As such, it has been claiming the same rights and privileges as those obtained by evangelical Christian groups – albeit with a prankster sensibility.

    Where the city council of Phoenix, Arizona, began its meetings with a Christian prayer, for example, the Satanic Temple demanded that satanic prayers should also be said. The council chose to drop the prayers altogether. When the Child Evangelism Fellowship set up the pro-Christian Good News clubs in US public schools, the Satanic Temple introduced its own After School Satan clubs – promoting scientific rationalism. And when the Oklahoma state capitol permitted the installation of a Ten Commandments sculpture in its grounds, the Satanic Temple campaigned to erect its own 8ft-high statue of Baphomet, the goat-headed, cloven-hoofed deity.

  123. 123
    Kay says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    Democrats were like “no, sir, you may NOT be our national chair, not quite up to our standards”

    Fucking buffoons. So he ran for President, and is competitive.

  124. 124
    Baud says:

    @Kay:

    Meh. He was fairly unknown then, and never caught on like he’s doing now. I don’t blame Dems because he didn’t make a splash at that time.

  125. 125
    TenguPhule says:

    Fox News host compares migrants entering US to Nazis

    A Fox Nation host has said that the US has been invaded by a “rampaging horde of illegal aliens” less than two weeks after 22 people were killed in a Hispanic-targeting attack in El Paso, Texas.

    The comments were first noted by media watchdog Media Matters’ Jason Campbell. They repeat a pattern of extreme rhetoric coming from the Rupert Murdoch-owned media property and come during a national debate over the role of racist language from politicians and media figures in spurring violence and prejudice against immigrants.

    Todd Starnes, who hosts a show on Fox News’ subscription streaming service spin-off Fox Nation, told viewers Wednesday night: “I do believe that we have been invaded by a horde. A rampaging horde of illegal aliens. This has been a slow-moving invasion.”

    But Starnes took the invasion analogy further and reached for the Third Reich.

    “When you go back in time and when you look at what an invasion is,” he declared. “Whether it is the Nazis invading France and western Europe. I mean, whether the Muslims were invading a country back in the early years. It was an invasion.”

    Obviously we need to cut off the FOX NEWS beer supply.

  126. 126
    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony says:

    @jl: Bigly Baud 2020! has fraud for YOU! and YOU! and YOU! Trump’s fraud is weak and easily prosecuted.

  127. 127
    karen marie says:

    @germy:

    “Mr. Markopolos openly acknowledges that he is compensated by unnamed hedge funds. Such funds are financially motivated to attempt to generate short selling in a company’s stock to create unnecessary volatility.”

    Yeah, I think we should wait to see whether this is “a bigger fraud than Enron.”

  128. 128
    TenguPhule says:

    The whistleblower who exposed Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme has accused General Electric of wide-scale fraud, sending the US conglomerate’s share price into a tailspin.

    In a report titled General Electric, a Bigger Fraud Than Enron, investigator Harry Markopolos claims GE is engaging in accounting fraud worth $38bn. He said GE is heading for bankruptcy and is hiding $29bn in long-term care losses.

    “GE’s $38bn in accounting fraud amounts to over 40% of GE’s market capitalization, making it far more serious than either the Enron or WorldCom accounting frauds,” Markopolos wrote, referencing two of the largest corporate scandals in history.

    After a year-long investigation for an unidentified hedge fund, Markopolos said he has discovered “an Enronesque business approach that has left GE on the verge of insolvency”. Enron, a Texas-based energy group, filed for bankruptcy in 2001, brought down by a massive accountancy scandal.

    This report is “going to make this company probably file for bankruptcy”, Markopolos told CNBC’s Squawk on the Street. “WorldCom and Enron lasted about four months … We’ll see how GE does.”

    It must be five o clock somewhere.

  129. 129
    MattF says:

    @TenguPhule: Richard Kadrey’s ‘Sandman Slim’ novels have been working that vein for a while now.

  130. 130
    NotMax says:

    @zhena gogolia

    Download and install Ccleaner and let that do it for you. Will also clean out detritus and fragments which any operating system leaves behind.

    Some further info (and things to watch for) about it in a comment from last night.

    I run it each and every time I close my browser, but that’s much more an affection/habit than a necessity.

  131. 131
    TenguPhule says:

    @karen marie: This guy exposed Madoff. He has credibility.

  132. 132
    Immanentize says:

    @Baud: The scary historic analysis (at least from my perspective) is that polls this far out are fairly predictive of who the nominee eventually will be. Which would mean Biden. But he isn’t going up and has really not had more than 1/3 of polling numbers.

    Even more than in the past (pre-internet) I think poll results have a greater push power. Winner in, winner out; absent a great fall. It was true for Hillary, certainly, in 2015. That said, in 2007 Hillary was pretty much stuck where Biden is now and Obama (in a much smaller field) was just a bit ahead of where Warren (and Sanders maybe) is now. But something dramatic will have to change the Biden/Warren leadership positions IMO.

    We will see.

  133. 133
    karen marie says:

    @Kay: Buttgieg is a novelty candidate. But for him being gay, we’d still be saying “Buttgieg who?”

  134. 134
    bemused says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    OMG, every damn thing is all about him. His rabid supporters have the worst character judgement skills on earth.

  135. 135
    NotMax says:

    Bad second linky. Fix.

    @zhena gogolia

    Download and install Ccleaner and let that do it for you. Will also clean out detritus and fragments which any operating system leaves behind.

    Some further info (and things to watch for) about it in a comment from last night.

    I run it each and every time I close my browser, but that’s much more an affection/habit than a necessity.

  136. 136
    Kay says:

    Chris Lu
    @ChrisLu44
    ·2h
    ICYMI: Shell workers who attended Trump’s event on Tuesday were told to stand for hours, no lunch was provided, nothing “viewed as resistance will be tolerated,” no overtime pay for those who skipped event

    Gross treatment of employees. Used as props for douchebag and his fawning, embarrassing CEO’s. Trump lied the whole time, too. He took credit for the facility, which was planned since 2012. They subjected them to lies and pro-Trump propaganda. Just a pack of lies all around.

  137. 137
    TenguPhule says:

    Sen. Susan Collins

    @SenatorCollins
    Instead, the Administration should have encouraged Israel to welcome the visit as an opportunity for Reps. Tlaib and Omar to learn from the Israeli people.

    We have to be willing to talk if we want people to change their views.

    213
    10:24 AM – Aug 15, 2019

    Says the Senator who refuses to talk to her constituents.

  138. 138
    Immanentize says:

    @feebog:
    Yes, Hillary won the he popular vote in 2008 against Obama as well.

  139. 139
    Bill Arnold says:

    @NotMax:
    GE woman just denied it on cnbc a minute or two ago. Have no clue. Have 5 GE appliances :-(

  140. 140
    satby says:

    @Kay: word. Missed opportunity, though at the time he just wasn’t well known enough.
    If you’ve never seen the speech he did when he dropped out of the DNC race, here it is. He would have been an excellent chairperson.

  141. 141
    Kay says:

    @karen marie:

    Buttgieg is a novelty candidate. But for him being gay, we’d still be saying “Buttgieg who?”

    I really disagree. I think he’s talented and it’s rare, his ability communicate with people and frame Democratic priorities well and clearly and in a way people don’t find off-putting although he’s obviously smart. I don’t think there are a lot of people who can do that.

  142. 142
    TenguPhule says:

    Steve King vs Liz Cheney on Twitter.

    I am rooting for casualties.

  143. 143
    TenguPhule says:

    The White House has repeatedly invoked executive privilege to block former aides from testifying to House committees, but that power could be tested with Corey Lewandowski’s subpoena.

    Lewandowski previously served as Trump’s campaign manager, but he never had a formal role in the administration. House Democrats hope that his lack of White House experience will preempt claims of executive privilege.

    House Democrats better get a fucking clue. OF COURSE he’s going to claim privilege. His whole MO is “FUCK YOU, MAKE ME.”

  144. 144
    TenguPhule says:

    Lib Dems urged to back Corbyn as interim PM to stop no-deal Brexit

    Time for the British Green Lantern party to put up or shut up.

    The Liberal Democrats are under growing pressure to back Jeremy Corbyn as a caretaker prime minister to stop a no-deal Brexit after leading opposition figures and even one former Conservative minister said they were open to the idea.

    With anti-no-deal groups rapidly calibrating their positions in the aftermath of Corbyn’s intervention, a split has opened up among MPs hoping to block Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy. But while the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens said they would engage with Corbyn’s offer, the Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, laid out a rival plan for a national unity government led by the Tory veteran Ken Clarke or Labour’s Harriet Harman.

    After Swinson initially sounded a hostile note towards Corbyn’s plan, saying it was “nonsense”, the Lib Dems were widely urged to reconsider and found themselves isolated among anti-no-deal groups.

    Labour’s Angela Rayner branded the Lib Dem leader “childish”, the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, criticised her position as “daft”, and Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, made a personal appeal for Swinson to rethink her position.

  145. 145
    Kay says:

    @satby:

    My husband went to some thing in Columbus- not partisan – elections official related- and they have a dinner for the Dems and Mayor Pete spoke as a candidate for party chair. He was really impressed. I think Nan Whaley wanted it too – Mayor of Dayton. I personally think mayors are underappreciated in the Democratic Party :)

    Probably not anymore.

  146. 146
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @TenguPhule: not to mention that there’s no such thing as “executive privilege”

  147. 147
    Immanentize says:

    @Bill Arnold:
    GE is a mega corporation with huge production and worldwide sales in things like generators, trains, ship engines, jets and yes, appliances. They are not a solo guy running a Ponzi scheme. They are not going to go bankrupt.

  148. 148
    debit says:

    @TenguPhule: But how do they make him? Any legal moves would wind up at the DOJ, correct? Not snarking, honestly curious what resources they have.

  149. 149
    Immanentize says:

    @Kay: If I ever have any say in any Presidential election, I am following the Kay strategy and empowering Mayors over County Execs.

  150. 150
    TenguPhule says:

    @Immanentize:

    They are not going to go bankrupt.

    Famous last words for almost every company that went bankrupt.

    Yes they make stuff, but if debts are larger then assets and all of the banks call in their loans because they’re afraid they won’t get all their money….

  151. 151
    germy says:

    @karen marie:

    Yeah, I think we should wait to see whether this is “a bigger fraud than Enron.”

    The statement in your quote is from a GE spokesperson. A good rule of thumb is to never believe anything a GE spokesperson says.

  152. 152
    Immanentize says:

    @Steve in the ATL:
    There is, recognized by the Supreme Court at least, to very narrowly apply to direct policy discussions between a sitting President and then-current officials.

  153. 153
    germy says:

    @Immanentize: Do they still make appliances or do they simply slap their logo on appliances made cheaply in China?

  154. 154
    Immanentize says:

    @TenguPhule:
    Then they get bailed out by the federal government which maintains huge contracts with GE.

  155. 155
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @Immanentize: which is of course unrelated to every instance the trump admin has cited it, right?

  156. 156
    karen marie says:

    @Kay: All of that is true but I stand by my original comment.

  157. 157
    Miss Bianca says:

    @feebog: @zhena gogolia: Does it occur to neither one of you to wonder why, if Warren is allegedly so weak a candidate, and Harris is allegedly so strong a candidate,their relative positions aren’t reversed? Maybe this whole “Indian DNA” thing is actually far less of an issue to potential Democratic voters than it is to the internet left.

  158. 158
    karen marie says:

    @germy: I fully understand where the quote came from – I actually read the entire article. There are big problems with comparing whatever it is that GE did to what Enron did. And regardless of what’s his name’s role in outing Madoff, one can’t be too skeptical of allegations made where motivations of an individual — and the motivations of the people motivating that individual — are unknown.

  159. 159
    satby says:

    @karen marie: so he’s a novelty candidate only because he’s gay? Being gay is a novelty?

  160. 160
    Immanentize says:

    @germy:
    Yes (some of both), but who doesn’t do that? Thermador is mostly Bosche, etc.

  161. 161
    Bill Arnold says:

    @zhena gogolia:

    I’m disappointed Harris doesn’t have more momentum.

    That is Tulsa Gabbard’s assigned role – soiking K. Harris’s candidacy. Now that KH has seen this, TG should keep a careful watch in all unexpected directions. Only sorta joking.

  162. 162
    Immanentize says:

    @satby:
    I knew that would quite rightly raise the ire. I was hoping you didn’t see that….

  163. 163
    Immanentize says:

    @Miss Bianca:
    This!

  164. 164
    karen marie says:

    @Miss Bianca: It’s certainly not an issue for me. That Warren kind of blew it by taking the DNA test is small potatoes, because the entire topic is bullshit from the start. If you think “Warren lost a fight with Trump, that means she’s weak,” you’re probably leaning toward the “safe” candidate – Biden – anyway.

  165. 165
    TenguPhule says:

    @Immanentize:

    Then they get bailed out by the federal government which maintains huge contracts with GE.

    Pass a bailout In an election year? With this Congress?

  166. 166
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    Trump just retweeted an accusation that the FBI could have stopped the Parkland shooter and women’s gymnastics doctor who molested athletes but they were too busy trying to “take Trump down.” Jesus Tapdancing Christ.

    Huh WHUT?? Even for Trump and his Trumpkins, that’s a helluva stretch.

  167. 167
    karen marie says:

    @satby: In the context of an American presidential election campaign, yes, he is.

    nov·el·ty
    /ˈnävəltē/
    noun
    1.
    the quality of being new, original, or unusual.
    “the novelty of being a married woman wore off”
    synonyms: originality, newness, freshness, unconventionality, unfamiliarity, unusualness, difference, imaginativeness, creativity, creativeness, innovativeness, innovation, modernity, modernness, break with tradition
    “they liked the novelty of our approach”

    Here’s another dictionary — the Cambridge dictionary:

    novelty
    noun [ C/U ] US ​ /ˈnɑv·əl·ti/

    the quality of being new or unusual, or a new or unusual experience

  168. 168
    Fair Economist says:

    I love Harris. I love Warren. If Warren is the one that catches on, so be it. That’s why we have a primary.

    I’ll enthusiastically support any of the elected or once-elected Dems running, but those two have my heart.

    @patrick II:

    There is the opinion that if Warren or Harris win the nomination it would be wise to balance the ticket with a male. The most likely reason Beto is still in the race.

    Yeah, he would be a good ticket-balancer for either, and intensify the scare the Republicans are getting in Texas.

  169. 169
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Immanentize:

    Warren is great and will suffice.

    👏👏👏👏👏👏👏

  170. 170
    zhena gogolia says:

    @karen marie:

    That’s ridiculous.

  171. 171
    Immanentize says:

    @TenguPhule:
    Why pass anything? It’s not done like that anymore.

  172. 172
    germy says:

    So here’s a list of companies supporting Trump’s re-election:

    – Bang
    – inn n out
    – chick fil a
    – Taco Bell
    – McDonald’s
    – Wendy’s
    – KFC
    – Pizza Hut
    – Olive Garden
    – Waffle House
    – IHOP
    – Carl’s Jr.

    So if you see me starting to get thinner and toned don’t ask me why.

    — Costa (@BillyBobSanderz) August 8, 2019

  173. 173
    TenguPhule says:

    @Immanentize:

    Why pass anything? It’s not done like that anymore.

    I suppose Trump could order money be thrown at GE in defiance of Congress’s power of the purse. I’m sure that will go well for GE about as well as any other industry touched by Trump.

  174. 174
    satby says:

    @karen marie: rather than replying in kind to your snotty condescending tone, I’ll use your own source to illustrate the actual “novelty” qualities that may attract voters to someone like Mayor Pete:

    imaginativeness, creativity, creativeness, innovativeness, innovation, modernity

    But sure, it’s only because he’s gay.

  175. 175
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @Miss Bianca: I love both Warren and Harris, but am concerned that Warren would get Hillaryed in the general election much more easily and effectively than Harris would

  176. 176
    Immanentize says:

    @Steve in the ATL: Absolutely. Oddly, they don’t claim executive privilege in Congress. They claim they might claim executive privilege at some point which is — wait for it —
    Contemptible.
    But then the Courts say you can’t pre-claim executive privilege (which is the actual case in controversy) and then they can go back to Congress and the President (only s/he can assert that privilege) claims executive privilege.
    Alles Klar, Herr Commisar?

  177. 177
    Miss Bianca says:

    @Immanentize: And just to make it clear in case it isn’t, already, Warren is my first choice and Harris is my second – a close second. I would infinitely prefer to see either of them at the top of the ticket than any other candidate. But I don’t claim to have any idea of what Joe/Josie Average Dem Voter is looking for.

  178. 178
    Yarrow says:

    @Kay: @satby: @Betty Cracker: I’m with you all on Mayor Pete. I think he’s a genuinely talented politician and Democrats are lucky to have him. I think he frames issues in a slightly different way from many other candidates and that makes some of those issues easier to understand.

    For example, he tied the concept of “freedom” to health insurance and said that being able to get health insurance means the freedom to start your own business. The idea of “freedom to” instead of “freedom from” is smart. It also takes the value of “freedom,” which Republicans like to claim they own, and put it squarely in the Democratic value system.

    I also like him being in the mix partly because he’s young. It’s eye-opening for some people to see a presidential candidate who did active shooter drills in school and can talk about it from experience. That’s only one example but I think his younger viewpoint is important in a primary with a lot of older candidates.

  179. 179
    TenguPhule says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Even for Trump and his Trumpkins, that’s a helluva stretch.

    Not really. He was doing this throughout 2018 too. Just different crimes at the time.

  180. 180
    Immanentize says:

    @Yarrow:
    Freedom to versus Freedom from is a brilliant framing.

  181. 181
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @TenguPhule:

    You can almost feel the concerned brow-furrowing through the pixels.

  182. 182
    Miss Bianca says:

    @Steve in the ATL: Yeah, I share that fear, and I just don’t know whether that fear is grounded or not. When I see Warren gaining traction despite what hand-wringers here see as her Huge! Fucking! Gaffe!, I am encouraged. I also don’t know whether Harris would be tarred with the Scary Angry Black Lady brush and “Hillaryed” that way. Like I said, I have realized that I am clueless and am waiting to see how other Dem voters respond.

  183. 183
    Immanentize says:

    @TenguPhule:
    Do you see a great uprising against the farmer bailouts of tens of billions of dollars?

  184. 184
    Yarrow says:

    @Immanentize: It really is. It might have been the first debate he did that or maybe a town hall. Can’t remember. It stuck with me because it’s excellent framing. He’s a genuinely talented politician.

    I’m kind of surprised more Democrats haven’t picked up on that framing. It’s just sitting there waiting to be used. It’s so clear and makes things like “why we need good, affordable health insurance” emotionally easy to grasp plus it’s tied to a bedrock American value.

  185. 185
    satby says:

    @Immanentize: Seriously, watch that DNC concession speech from 2017. His description of what we believe as Democrats is inspiring.
    I backed Perez because I wasn’t familiar with Mayor Pete at all, having only lived in South Bend a few months. Huge missed opportunity for the party.
    Edit: @Yarrow: it’s a theme he touched on even back then.

  186. 186
    cmorenc says:

    @Kent:

    You think advocating background checks for gun purchases is an unforced error?

    No, advocating strongly for effective legislation has broad support, and should be front-and-center in all Democratic Presidential candidate’s respective campaigns. But what Sen. Harris proposed was an attempted go-around of legislative roadblocks by Executive Order if she becomes President. The validity of executive orders is grounded in the Administrative ability to issue interpretations of existing law, not pure unbounded fiat (which Trump wants and tries to do, to the extent he can get away with it). What existing legislative basis does Harris claim for such proposed action – how exactly do you close the gun show loophole in existing firearms law when the loophole is written into current law? That is potentially very constitutionally problematic, as she should realize as an ex-state Attorney General, and won’t sit well with many people otherwise favorably supporting gun control legislation.

  187. 187
    Immanentize says:

    @Miss Bianca:
    And don’t forget, Kamala is a cop. Which in many ways why she is my first pick.

    It doesn’t matter who we run, there is no defense against the dark arts that will prevent the all out attack on our candidate Every candidate is vulnerable. Every single one. Each in different ways. But they are all vulnerable. No candidate is uniquely strong. Let the primary voters sort this out. Wisdom of the herd and all.

  188. 188
    Immanentize says:

    @Yarrow:
    It also answers the gun problem.

  189. 189
    Yarrow says:

    @satby: I don’t know if Mayor Pete would have been a better head of the DNC than Perez. He’s certainly a better communicator but there are other aspects to that job. I think Perez is doing a lot of work behind the scenes that doesn’t get a lot of attention but is paying off. But maybe I’m wrong. I like having Mayor Pete out in the presidential race as I commented above so maybe it’s working out better this way.

  190. 190
    Yarrow says:

    @Immanentize: Yep. I really wish Dems would take it and run with it.

  191. 191
    Immanentize says:

    @satby: I am not sure you are right. If Buttigieg had become DNC chair, he would look as feckless as Perez. Tom is and was an excellent choice to run an impossible organization. PG’s political future would have been ruined if he had gotten the job (and Perez never had any election aspirations as far as I can tell, so he is in no danger that way).

    So, don’t run down Perez, hold up Buttigieg.

  192. 192
    Baud says:

    @Yarrow:

    I’m kind of surprised more Democrats haven’t picked up on that framing. It’s just sitting there waiting to be used. 

    Hmm.

    If you strike out on your own and start a small business, you will be able to get coverage. We will do this by creating a new insurance exchange – a marketplace where individuals and small businesses will be able to shop for health insurance at competitive prices. 

  193. 193
    TenguPhule says:

    @Immanentize:

    Do you see a great uprising against the farmer bailouts of tens of billions of dollars?

    Farmers have organized themselves into groups with considerable political clout.

    Corporate bailouts, especially for something even remotely looking like fraud, are a whole different ball game.

  194. 194
    Yarrow says:

    @Baud: The concept has been out there, and of course Obama talked about it way back when, as did most Dems, but I’m talking about using the words. “Freedom to” instead of the tired “freedom from” framing. It feels fresh. It takes a bedrock American value – freedom – and ties it to Democratic values. Freedom to go to shopping malls without bear of being shot. Freedom to start your own business and being able to get health insurance. Freedom TO.

  195. 195
    satby says:

    @Baud: yep, he learned from the master.

    @Immanentize: not running down Perez. Don’t even know enough about what he’s accomplished other than fucking up by letting Bernie run as a part time Democrat again.

  196. 196
    Baud says:

    @Yarrow:

    Well, I didn’t do a specific word search. But if it works, it works.

  197. 197
    Baud says:

    @satby:

    Pete would not have barred Bernie.

  198. 198
    debbie says:

    @karen marie:

    Did you mean this the way it sounds?

    No way is Pete a novelty; he’s an unknown, much like Obama was at first. If you want a novelty candidate, you’re better off looking at Marianne Williamson.

  199. 199
    satby says:

    @Baud: we’ll never actually know now.
    I think Pete is smart enough to have set the bars high enough where 22 candidates including the woo lady wouldn’t have made it into the debate stage.

  200. 200
    debbie says:

    @satby:

    Maybe he didn’t stop him from running because he hoped he’d fail all on his own. I’m not sure how democratic or Democratic it would have been to forbid him. The GOP had he same issues with Trump. In the beginning, he was what some might call a novelty candidate.

  201. 201
    karen marie says:

    @debbie: Review the definition of “novelty,” then try again.

  202. 202
    Baud says:

    @satby:

    No, we’ll never know for sure, but I am highly skeptical than he would have so I can’t ding Perez for not doing it.

    And any reasonable bar would not have excluded Bernie because he’s unfortunately too popular with enough Dems.

  203. 203
    Professor Bigfoot says:

    @satby: Y’know, I had Mayor Pete pegged as “yet another unqualified white guy,” this one just happened to be gay.

    I derided him as “Mayo Pete.”

    Then I started listening to the guy, and damn my eyes if I’ve not been singularly impressed.

    Having not won a statewide race I still don’t consider him qualified for the Oval, but I love the sound of “Harris/Buttigieg.”

  204. 204
    satby says:

    @debbie: it’s a party primary and Bernie isn’t a party member. It’d be just fine to exclude him on those grounds. Just like the Republicans should have done something to derail Trump before he completely hijacked their primary. Now they’re stuck on a sinking ship.

  205. 205
    satby says:

    @Professor Bigfoot:

    I love the sound of “Harris/Buttigieg.

    One of my two dream tickets.

  206. 206
    debbie says:

    @karen marie:

    Thanks, my command of the language is more than adequate. “Unusual” seems…odd.

    ETA: Maybe your idea of non-novelty is Biden. No thanks.

  207. 207
    Professor Bigfoot says:

    @satby: and my other is Warren/Castro.

    Either one will cause names to be taken and asses to be kicked.

  208. 208
    Immanentize says:

    @Baud:
    But in that speech, Obama only uses the “freedom from” framing explicitly. He argued regulation is necessary, but he still poses it as somewhat in opposition to unrestrained “freedom.”

  209. 209
    satby says:

    @Baud:

    any reasonable bar would not have excluded Bernie because he’s unfortunately too popular with enough Dems

    Too popular ≠ member of the party running the primary. I just wish someone would have made that a bottom line requirement.

  210. 210
    Immanentize says:

    @Yarrow:
    I am with you entirely. It is fresh. It does not play on the Clinton: “The era of big government is over,” field. LIKE

  211. 211

    @karen marie:

    Buttgieg is a novelty candidate. But for him being gay, we’d still be saying “Buttgieg who?”

    Now try it with “Obama” and “black” and see how it sounds.

  212. 212
    Baud says:

    @satby:

    Too late. Once we opened the door in 2016, there isn’t really a way back without alienating the people we need. It sucks.

  213. 213
    Immanentize says:

    @satby:
    I know you weren’t. My point is, PG would have HAD to make the same play with the same no-one-happy results. So, Buttigieg is better off having list that election. I know I have applied for positions knowing I would not be promoted in order to get my name forward for the next round.

    Buttigieg would be the perfect Warren/Harris presidency DNC Chief.

  214. 214
    debbie says:

    @Immanentize:

    That’s actually a great idea. I hope Warren or Harris keep him in mind.

  215. 215
    satby says:

    @Baud: and I don’t think it alienates as many as you imagine. Most of the hardcore Bernouts voted third party or Trump last time, they aren’t regular Democrats. The softer Bernie fans voted blue no matter who. A guy who disses the party as inherently corrupt (unless of course it picks him) shouldn’t be allowed to take those shots from our stages at our events.
    Fuckem.

  216. 216
    Immanentize says:

    @satby:
    Fuck em

  217. 217
    Baud says:

    @satby:

    Too big a risk for a DNC chair to take. We have to rely on our voters, and then deal with the butthurt, now with knowledge of what’s coming.

  218. 218
    PJ says:

    @debbie: Of course he’s a novelty – he’s the first openly gay Presidential candidate, and he’s never held statewide office, or any federal position. (And he was apparently no great shakes as mayor of a small town.) Without those two characteristics, he would never have had all of the love from the press he got at the beginning of this year, and he would be in the ranks of Hickenlooper, Bullock, and Inslee right now.

  219. 219
    PJ says:

    @Major Major Major Major: There’s no comparison: Obama was not the first black Presidential candidate, he was the US Senator from Illinois, and he had been on the national radar since the 2004 convention. Buttigieg was unknown by pretty much everyone outside of South Bend before this year.

  220. 220

    @PJ: I disagree. In my mind at least, being a first-term Senator is less impressive in a lot of ways than being a popular and re-elected mayor. Regardless, I stand by the statements being equally offensive.

  221. 221
    PJ says:

    @Major Major Major Major: Then I guess you’ll be torn between voting for Buttigieg and DeBlasio.

  222. 222
    satby says:

    @PJ: he’s pretty well loved as a mayor here. Re-elected with 80% of the vote. And the friends I have here happen to be mostly black and Mexican due to my neighborhood, and they love him as a mayor. Small sample, admittedly, but pretty random.

  223. 223
    Immanentize says:

    @PJ:
    Offensive and ignorant.
    “It’s a wonder you can breathe”

  224. 224
    debbie says:

    Here’s M-W’s definition of novelty:

    Definition of novelty
    1 : something new or unusual
    the novelty of a self-driving car

    2 : the quality or state of being novel : NEWNESS
    an uncritical acceptance of novelty as advance
    — H. M. Jones
    A toy’s novelty soon wears off.

    3 : a small manufactured article intended mainly for personal or household adornment —usually used in plural
    Disney novelties filled the shelves.

    4 : something (such as a song or food item) that provides often fleeting amusement and is often based on a theme —often used attributively
    The movie included a few novelty songs.

    It may be #4 on the list, but the bolded bit is how most people think of the word “novelty” — fleeting, passing fancy, etc. Pete ain’t that at all.

  225. 225
  226. 226
    PJ says:

    @Immanentize: How is it offensive and ignorant to acknowledge that the reason a candidate has gotten attention is because they are something new? Buttigieg didn’t get written up for his policy positions (he hasn’t taken any) or his resume – he got attention because he was the openly gay mayor of a small town running a long shot campaign for President.

  227. 227
    satby says:

    @PJ: I wasn’t a resident then, and I am perfectly happy to let my neighbors guide my opinion on the subject. And as I said they like the guy. I’ll give greater weight to the people here and actively affected than to a reporter out of DC. but then, I’m from Chicago, and we were just talking this morning how distorted news is about that city.

  228. 228
    Yarrow says:

    @PJ: Whatever qualities a candidate might have received attention for in the beginning, they have to have more than that to keep holding attention. Mayor Pete is no longer new–he’s been on the campaign trail for months. If he didn’t resonate with voters he’d be down in the 1% like so many other candidates. It’s clear he’s got something Dem primary voters like.

  229. 229
    Immanentize says:

    Dear Moderators. I called PJ a DumMy. Is that a vanned word? Because it is so descriptive. As in Ventriloquist tense.

  230. 230
    satby says:

    @PJ: and you’ve outed yourself, because he’s got several policy positions (one plan mentioned in the article you cited BTW) and has a pretty impressive resume (as do a number of our candidates). But you also are claiming it’s mostly because he’s gay.

  231. 231
    PJ says:

    @Immanentize: For the first part of the year, Buttigieg made a point of not providing policies: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-2020-writing-message.html . It looks like he’s changed his position on that since then, but the point is that he wasn’t getting attention for his policies, because he hadn’t stated any.

  232. 232
    TS (the original) says:

    @Baud: Old thread – but thanks Baud for finding that – I new President Obama had said it – and often – I was thinking it was too late to go find it.

  233. 233
    Immanentize says:

    @PJ:
    “For the first part of the year” is doing a shitload of work in your attack.

    ETA Please point me to de Blasio’s policies in the “first part of the year.”. Because they are the same people, right?

  234. 234
    PJ says:

    @Yarrow: That’s for sure. He’s a very good communicator, and it seems like he can lay out complex issues without alienating voters. So his “storytelling” campaign is working for him.

  235. 235
    PJ says:

    @Immanentize: “My attack”? At this point, Buttigieg is probably in 5th or 6th place for the candidate I’d vote for in the primary, and I wish him well, but the fact is there are a lot more candidates with more substance and past performance to go by than him.

  236. 236
    Immanentize says:

    @PJ:
    Do you now think this is not like the stupidest thing said in is his thread?

    Then I guess you’ll be torn between voting for Buttigieg and DeBlasio.

    I am sure you are a real deal Democrat.

  237. 237

    @Immanentize: apparently me thinking winning a Democratic Senate primary in a blue state isn’t as impressive as being a popular mayor means I must be hell-bent on voting for a mayor. It makes sense though given that all the other candidates are first-term senators.

    Harris’s AG election is more impressive than her senate election to me as well, fwiw 🤷🏻‍♂️

  238. 238
    PJ says:

    @Immanentize: Why do you think they are the same people? Buttigieg started getting positive press in January: http://nymag.com/intelligencer.....-real.html, while DeBlasio didn’t announce until May, and while there were rumblings to that effect a little earlier, he’s always been treated as a joke candidate by the media (because they know him), on the level of Marianne whatshername.

  239. 239
    PJ says:

    @Immanentize: If you ever read anything (and, if you did, that might help you understand what “novel” means), you’d know that that crack was in response to MMMM stating that he was more impressed by a mayor getting reelected (what DeBlasio and Buttigieg have in common) than a first time Senator.

    ETA: But trying to explain anything to a maroon is pointless, and I’m done with your foolishness.

  240. 240
    Jean says:

    @Betty Cracker: I agree! I’d love to see Buttigieg as VP and debate Pence in the campaign. He’s stand-out smart and rhetorically gifted. I also like his demeanor while responding to criticism. His response to Trump’s personal attack is a good example of that, and that same skill would make him a wonderful surrogate.

  241. 241
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Steve in the ATL:
    Isn’t “executive privilege” a Watergate-era dodge invented by the Nixon administration?

  242. 242
    NotMax says:

    @Amir Khalid

    The scope was (mostly but not entirely unsuccessfully) expanded then, but the concept and application goes all the way back to G. Washington, albeit rarely claimed.

  243. 243
    SFAW says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:
    Thanks for ‘splainin’ to me. I figured there was something I wasn’t getting.

  244. 244
    low-tech cyclist says:

    While the Change Research polls may be iffy, a Fox News poll dropped this evening. And while the rest of Fox News is worthless, whoever does their polling is quite good: they’ve got an A rating from 538, and they deserve it.

    Anyhow:

    Biden 31
    Warren 20
    Sanders 10 (need a sound effect for this plummet)
    Harris 8
    everyone else 3 or below

    The last three A-rated national polls (Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Fox News) have had Warren at 21, 19, 20. Sanders is fading, Harris is back down in the single digits, Buttigieg is in the low single digits, and nobody’s emerging from the 2% or less club. I think we can finally say that Warren’s now Biden’s main rival for the nomination, and that means trouble is headed Biden’s way.

  245. 245
    mad citizen says:

    @Kent: Very late to this thread–was at my state fair today. Kent summarized a thought I’ve had for awhile in his third paragraph. We all have to fill up time talking about grand policy positions, but assuming the candidate is competent in that area, it will be personality and inspiration that takes them over the top. That person continues to be Kamala for me. I expect her to campaign hard in Iowa.

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