Only Play with Money, Careful

Atrios, on why Democratic Senators in purple states don’t support popular things:

[…] You can point to polls showing something like increasing the minimum wage in a state is very popular. And you can also see a Dem Senate (or other) candidate not supporting it. And you can also see this explained as “can’t win in a purple/red state supporting the socialism of a higher minimum wage, that’s just the way of the world.” This is contradictory. Polls say it’s popular but a candidate can’t win if they support it? Does not compute does not compute beep beep beep.

The reason it does compute is that those races are generally going to be tough/close races, but the calculation is not “boy if I support a higher minimum wage then the voters will get mad.” The calculation is “boy if I support a higher minimum wage then the voters will like that, BUT the Chamber of Commerce types will dump a bunch of money into the race to oppose me and run ads calling me a child molester (or highlighting something else that might be unpopular about me).” Supporting the popular thing is a problem not because the popular thing is unpopular (by definition!), but because it’s tough to win as a Democrat generally and extra hard if the big money comes after you.

I think this describes the mindset correctly, but I don’t know if it reflects the current reality.  Whether or not you support something popular, if you’re a Democrat in a state that’s anything but completely blue, there is so much third-party money in these races that you’re going to be awash in negative ads for months prior to the election.  So you might as well shout out loud and proud about popular things like a minimum wage hike, because the millions in third party spending will be there anyways.






158 replies
  1. 1
    Another Scott says:

    Speaking of money, an early afternoon rofl story from TheHill:

    But the White House had little leverage to begin with given the Democratic majority in the House, which was dead-set against the spending ceilings suggested by Trump’s administration.

    And with the deadline for raising the nation’s debt ceiling moving up, the administration has even less leverage on the budget deal. Mnuchin does not want to risk a default on the nation’s borrowing limit at all costs, and he has been pressing Congress to raise the debt ceiling before leaving for the August recess.

    The deal shaping up would set spending ceilings for the next two years, clearing the path for spending measures that will increase the deficit by roughly $75 billion over the next two years.

    It’s a bitter pill to swallow for Trump, who campaigned on eliminating the debt and has received rare rebukes from conservative allies over his fiscal policies. Spending bills and tax cuts on Trump’s watch have helped raise the national debt from $20 trillion at the start of his presidency to more than $22 trillion today.

    (Emphasis added.)

    Math, how does it work??! Stable Genius Donnie probably has no idea, and no desire to learn, since it uses Hindu-Arabic symbols and the like.

    We know everything out of Donnie’s mouth is a lie. Him campaigning on “eliminating the debt” was just mouth noises.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  2. 2
    jl says:

    I think Bill Clinton said “The Republicans always have more money”. IIRC that was in the context of debate about the same dilemma, and Clinton was saying that trying avoid getting a bunch of opposition money aimed at you was pointless. That’s what I remember, but a kind commenter can correct me if I misremember.

  3. 3
    MisterForkbeard says:

    Whether or not you support something popular, if you’re a Democrat in a state that’s anything but completely blue, there is so much third-party money in these races that you’re going to be awash in negative ads for months prior to the election.

    This is partially true, I think. But there’s still a large difference between “getting some negative ads because there’s a ton of Dark Money and you’re a Democrat” and “being targeted by large groups directing lots of dark money”. There’s certainly a lot less risk to this stuff than before, but it does still have some downsides.

  4. 4
    jl says:

    @Another Scott: Heard a news story that Congressional GOP and Trump will demand Pelosi OK spending cuts in return for raising debt ceiling, and try to pin the blame for fallout on Pelosi no matter what decision she makes.

    I think chances of that working is iffy. Maybe the GOP would have a good chance if their rich person’s tax cut was more popular. But they lied their asses off about what good it would do the the average worker, and they didn’t throw enough crumbs to the lower 99 percent for them to notice anything in their paycheck. So, I have my doubts it will work for 2020.

  5. 5
    jl says:

    OK, here is the new GOP/Trumpster con in Paul Krugman’s twitter

    @paulkrugman
    You have to be kidding. When Obama was prez, GOP demanded spending cuts as price of raising the debt ceiling. Now, with Trump in office, GOP is again demanding spending cuts as price of raising ceiling. No. If we hit ceiling, Trump owns it
    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1152255719305076736

  6. 6
    Wapiti says:

    I think there also might be a calculation that we still want to appear reasonable and let businesses have time to react to changes. I mean, there is a chance (however slim) that the Senate might go so far as sending one of these bills to committee.

    When the minimum wage went up in Seattle, the business people, especially restaurateurs, freaked out. I think business people are naturally conservative – they know they can make money with the existing set of circumstances. They fear they can’t make money if circumstances change. And it sort of makes sense: just having the city close a street for construction for 4 weeks eats a lot of gross income from the businesses on the street.

    So while the ramped up minimum wage may seem timid, ramping up things is how government typically works. I think the Dems are right to treat this the way they normally would.

  7. 7
    Cervantes says:

    This is true, but they’re worried about raising their own campaign funds as well. Most Democrats are still taking big bucks from corporate and wealthy donors who might like some elements of their policy portfolio but probably not a higher minimum wage.

  8. 8
    Chief Oshkosh says:

    …and run ads calling me a child molester…

    WaPo just reported that another Trumpkin, George Nader, is being charged with…wait for it…child sex trafficking. Of course, the headline calls him “Mueller witness,” which I believe they did for the next-most recently charged Trumpkin. The headline writers/editors at most newspapers must get some of that dark money from Russia or other rich asshole sources.

    Still, the major point is that, it’s all projection all of the time. Pizzagate was just one visible outcome of this. They are ALL scum, including Hope Hicks, who, I’ll lay odds, will turn out to have a USB drive full of photos of odd lays.

  9. 9
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @jl:
    Agreed. It disgusts me how they want to have their cake and eat it too, all the time

  10. 10
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    Yay! In good news I just got a pay raise. My Royal Navy pension is index linked so every time the forces get a raise so do I so my pension when I claim it (3-11-2020) will have risen monthly and the lump sum that I receive (equivalent to 3.5 times my annual pension) will have gone up.

  11. 11
    Ocotillo says:

    I think money may not be as important as it was in the past at least in regards to campaign ads. The month before an election if you watch any tv it is awash with negative ads about any candidate that is in a competitive race. So much so, it has to really lose it’s effectiveness and add to that, people now have so many different ways of getting their entertainment.

    The audience skews pretty old and likely to be voting for (R) whether it is Satan himself or worse, Trump.

    My point is dollars need to be spent more on GOTV and social media now rather than thrown at television advertising.

  12. 12
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Cervantes:

    Most Democrats are still taking big bucks from corporate and wealthy donors who might like some elements of their policy portfolio but probably not a higher minimum wage.

    But the thing about that is, there’s little evidence to suggest that raising the minimum wage has a detrimental effect on most businesses or the economy at large. In fact, wouldn’t a higher mw act similar to a stimulus? If more people have more money in their pockets, wouldn’t more money be spent?

  13. 13
  14. 14
  15. 15
    Kent says:

    BTW, what are the instructions for making shortened URL links here?

  16. 16
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Kent:
    Wilmer looks like an asshole more and more every day. Stuff like this will (hopefully) destroy him in the primaries and debates

    ETA: click on the link button above the comment box, paste the address into the box that pops up, write some text into the comment box after the link appears, and then click on the link button again.

  17. 17
  18. 18
    Baud says:

    @Kent:

    They should go on strike from now to election day.

  19. 19
    Feathers says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: I think the best attitude is “Companies who don’t pay living wages are costing taxpayers money.” I forget the number, but the amount that would be saved in social services spending by creating a nationwide living wage was enormous.

    I think one of the issues is that companies know that if they have to pay bottom tier workers $15, they now have to pay managers $18. They really do have the Wages Are Theft attitude.

  20. 20
    Baud says:

    Polls say it’s popular but a candidate can’t win if they support it? Does not compute does not compute beep beep beep.

    Lots of things poll popular, but don’t affect how people vote. That’s why we have so much difficulty with gun regulation, but our voters don’t prioritize it like theirs do. Big money is an important factor, but it’s not the whole story.

  21. 21
    Steeplejack (phone) says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    Speaking of 🎂, hope you had some for your birthday on Wednesday. Many happy returns!

  22. 22
    germy says:

    New poll by Gallup shows that @BernieSanders has the highest favorability ratings among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents https://t.co/QoluiAfoJY pic.twitter.com/qh93oNmS1D— David Sirota (@davidsirota) July 19, 2019

  23. 23
    Steeplejack (phone) says:

    @Litlebritdifrnt:

    How is your husband doing, and where is he?

  24. 24

    @Baud: Sanders needs to walk the walk.

    What kind of pay do other Ds give their campaign workers?

  25. 25
    germy says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:
    https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/elizabeth-warren-2020-campaign-staff-union.html

    Warren’s staff is unionized.

    Warren’s campaign staff is the third to unionize so far in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, according HuffPost. Bernie Sanders’s 2020 campaign staff was the first to unionize back in March — which the Vermont senator recognized immediately — while Julián Castro’s staff unionized, and was recognized, in May.

  26. 26
    Baud says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    I think I heard that Warren pays $15/hour. Don’t know about the others.

  27. 27
    Baud says:

    @germy: Bernie’s staff is unionized too.

  28. 28
    jl says:

    @Baud: The Baud campaign’s free beer fiasco left some scars, I see.

  29. 29
    ruemara says:

    It describes the reality, wherein republican outlandish claims are given credulence in the media & Democratic responses with facts are presented as “who knows what’s true?” *shrug*.

    And I’ll tell you something else, most people – Left, Right, Center – do NOT support increased wages for convenience and other perceived “low skill” workers. They are often underpaid themselves and feel like it’s an insult to have this lower echelon of worker make nearly as much as they do. It sucks, but it’s a real bias.

  30. 30
    Baud says:

    @jl:

    I’ll never oppose Big Wine Cooler again.

  31. 31

    @Wapiti:

    When the minimum wage went up in Seattle, the business people, especially restaurateurs, freaked out. I think business people are naturally conservative – they know they can make money with the existing set of circumstances.

    I think a huge part of it is that they’re focused on the little picture rather than the big picture. They think about what would happen to their business if they were forced to raise their prices without considering that all their competitors are in the same position. So they imagine losing all their business to the competition when they have to raise their prices to keep up with higher salaries. Instead what happens is that everyone raises their prices by about the same amount at the same time, so there’s no drastic shift in competition. They may lose a little bit of business because their prices went up a bit and that will naturally hurt sales, but they may also gain a bit of business because lots of poor people now have more money to spend. What doesn’t happen is their nightmare scenario where all their business goes elsewhere and they have to close.

  32. 32
  33. 33
    Baud says:

    @germy:

    Here’s the story. Most of the others besides Biden have heavier “no opinions.”

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/260801/biden-sanders-best-images-among-democrats.aspx

    Still, it’s disheartening.

  34. 34
    MisterForkbeard says:

    @Kent: @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    Someone else was talking about this a couple days ago. It’s not nearly as silly as it sounds.

    Basically, some of his people are salaried. Because of that, sometimes when they work they make less than they would if they were making $15/hour. This is particularly true for overtime work, in which salaried workers don’t get extra but hourly employees do.

  35. 35
    Plato says:

    If you are reading this, congratulations! You are one of My 39 followers!— God (@TheTweetOfGod) July 19, 2019

    Just hit triple digits! I'M BACK, BABY!!!— God (@TheTweetOfGod) July 19, 2019

    He had millions of followers, no idea wtf twitter did to his account.

  36. 36
    jonas says:

    Yes minimum wage hikes generally poll well in the abstract, but, as I’ve commented before, if we were governed by polls, we’d be living in a Swedish-style social democracy. But we’re governed by people who actually vote (and corporate interests), and the people who would benefit most from a minimum wage hike, namely immigrants, younger workers and the working poor, are the two least-likely-to-vote demographic groups. Meanwhile, irate small business owners will be crawling over broken glass to vote you out. So yeah, it’s a tough call.

  37. 37
    Baud says:

    @Plato:

    Failed to verify identity?

  38. 38

    This is contradictory. Polls say it’s popular but a candidate can’t win if they support it? Does not compute does not compute beep beep beep.

    Atrios isn’t stupid. He must know this point is disingenuous. Poll responses swing wildly based on the framing. This is less true for the minimum wage, perhaps, but very true for things like healthcare, climate change, and the other major calamities we face. Also, as others noted, since everything is partisan now, supporting many popular things will lose you voters if it’s in a polarizing area like gun policy. Just ask the Colorado Dems about that one.

  39. 39
    jl says:

    @Baud: Good question. I can’t find anything on that after a few internet searches.
    But, I did find a WaPo fact checker that went into absurd microscopic detail about whether Warren’s claim that the minimum wage supported her family when she was a kid.
    After a lot of interesting economic history, but for the purposes of examining her claim, odd and irrelevant examination of evidence and argument, the fact checker decides not to rate it.
    I wonder if they’ll do a similar number on Trump’s little episode with his lies, hate speech, and encouragement of ‘send her back’ chant at the rally, that he then lied about, and then went back to lies hate speech and smears.

    Elizabeth Warren’s claim that minimum wage supported her family in the 1960s
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/11/elizabeth-warrens-claim-minimum-wage-supported-her-family-s/?utm_term=.cb8dc3ee3074

  40. 40
    rp says:

    @germy: that could also be phrased as “Sanders and Biden have highest unfavorable numbers among leading Dem candidates.”

  41. 41
    rp says:

    @Major Major Major Major: Actually, he is kind of stupid. At least when it comes to politics.

  42. 42

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: @Steeplejack (phone): happy belated birthday, Goku! How many are ya now? Have your bones all fused?

  43. 43
  44. 44
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Steeplejack (phone):
    Thanks! I did and it was really fresh too. I think because it was frozen. I’m actually surprised somebody here remembered my birthday; I haven’t been mentioning it

  45. 45
    Baud says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    A lot of Juicers are stalkers. You get used to it.

  46. 46

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: Happy belated b-day. Steep has files, lots of files.

  47. 47
    Patricia Kayden says:

    @Another Scott: Hang tough, Democrats!! Make demands to push a progressive agenda and do not compromise. I hope Democrats don’t cave when they have the upper hand.

  48. 48
    sdhays says:

    @Baud: Atrios would say you should stop blaming voters! Democratic consultants are shitty!

    (Which is almost certainly at least partially true. See Kay’s many comments about dumping campaign cash on workers rather than ads.)

  49. 49

    @Baud:

    A lot of Juicers are stalkers.

    It’s why I have security cameras, everywhere.

  50. 50
    Plato says:

    @Baud:

    He was always unverified, before and now.

  51. 51
    Patricia Kayden says:

    Trump praising the racists because that’s who he is.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1152264099461566466

    No shocker.

  52. 52
    germy says:

    @rp:

    that could also be phrased as “Sanders and Biden have highest unfavorable numbers among leading Dem candidates.”

    As the jazz ballad singers say, “Phrasing is everything.”

  53. 53
    Another Scott says:

    @Kent: You either:

    – use the link button above the “Leave a Comment” box:
    — click it and enter the URL (making sure the http:// doesn’t get duplicated)
    — type what you want to appear in blue text as the link immediately after the right angle bracket
    — click the “/link” button to close the link.

    – or you can do it by hand:
    — [a href=”http://the.url.com”]my text[/a] replacing the square brackets with the corresponding angle brackets.

    I hope this helps.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  54. 54
    Chyron HR says:

    Thank you, man who literally believes that Bernie Sanders is a divine being, for telling us how it ‘really’ be.

  55. 55
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Major Major Major Major:
    24 now. Sometimes I have a hard time believing it. Time seems to move faster the older you get.

    A person who’s now 34 I talk to online on occasion talked about the “climb to 30” and how scary that can be, at least in the sense of “God, I’m old

    It may sound silly. I’m still pretty young, but I’ve noticed I’m not as durable as I was when I was like? 10. It hurts like hell to kneel down on my knees and get back up

  56. 56

    Some Democrats in congress are proposing allowing free movement of people across the border between the US and Canada. This would mean that anyone wishing to immigrate, work in, or visit the US from Canada or vice versa could do so.

    Democrats say that we have a long prosperous history with Canada and this would increase trade and be good for the economy.

    Republicans say that this means loss of control of our own borders and make it harder for Americans to get jobs.

    Do you support or oppose this policy?

    Raw results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-TYURN_fN3CFLSyxCQcmoHkaJC_7xPKJH_boxaeAE1o/htmlview#

    2,428 voters
    support/oppose/don’t know

    Likely voters: 38/40/22
    Clinton ‘16: 58/23/19
    Trump ‘16: 22/64/14

  57. 57
    jonas says:

    @Roger Moore: I think that’s right, generally speaking, but businesses in a large, wealthy, metro area have some more flexibility in this regard than ones in much less affluent area. If every local diner in the area I live (where the median income is about $10k lower than the national) raised the price of their morning breakfast fare by $1-2, say, people would eat out much less often, or just stop eating out altogether. That may help their waistlines in the long run, but it also means fewer dollars going into the economy and some places would inevitably close. Same for haircuts, oil changes, landscaping, daycare, etc.

    The fact that the federal minimum wage is still $7 or whatever is an obscenity. But assuming small businesses can absorb costs or raise prices in Paducah, KY like they can in Santa Monica, CA is also not being realistic.

  58. 58
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Baud: @🐾BillinGlendaleCA:

    Thanks! I guess he must lol

  59. 59
  60. 60
    jonas says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    This would mean that anyone wishing to immigrate, work in, or visit the US from Canada or vice versa could do so.

    I think Canada would probably be the one objecting to this, although they probably would benefit in the long run from the massive brain drain to the north. If I could land a job doing what I do now in Toronto or Vancouver, I’d be gone tomorrow morning. Easier said than done, however.

  61. 61
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    @Steeplejack (phone): @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: Still in Atlanta. We have submitted his application including all supporting documents and are just waiting for a decision. It should be straightforward seeing as the UK Immigration Service and the Tribunal Judge both ruled him eligible other than he applied in the wrong place. If they turn us down now it will be in direct violation of the Judge’s order but we shall see.

  62. 62
    debbie says:

    @jl:

    This sounds like something she can easily outmaneuver. So long as she keeps the light on the GOP’s trying to squirm out of their promise regarding the debt ceiling, it will be a win — especially the GOP lie that they are the Party of Fiscal Responsibility.

  63. 63
    germy says:

    @jonas:

    If every local diner in the area I live (where the median income is about $10k lower than the national) raised the price of their morning breakfast fare by $1-2, say, people would eat out much less often, or just stop eating out altogether.

    Would the hike to minimum wage for diner employees eliminate tips? When I eat in a diner or restaurant, I always tip generously because I know the employers depend on me to supplement their staff’s salaries.

    When we vacationed in Italy, we were told servers didn’t expect tips because they were already paid a decent wage.

  64. 64
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @MisterForkbeard:
    Which is better? Getting paid hourly or by salary? I’d appreciate having a locked in income, but then where’s the incentive to work overtime (beyond personal values and career advancement)?

  65. 65
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Major Major Major Major:
    I meant that getting on my knees on a hard wood floor to grab something that fell hurts

  66. 66

    @jonas:

    If I could land a job doing what I do now in Toronto or Vancouver, I’d be gone tomorrow morning.

    I thought this until I looked up their software engineer salaries…

  67. 67
    Steeplejack says:

    @Baud:

    This. People answering polls ≠ (reliable) voters.

  68. 68
    debbie says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    I remember sitting on the steps at school between classes on my 16th birthday, feeling like it had taken an eternity to get to be 16 years old and it would take for fucking ever to live this life. Of course, that feels like last week (if not yesterday), lo, these five decades later.

    Enjoy it while you can. Happy birthday!

  69. 69
    jl says:

    @jonas: I don’t know about barbers and hairdressers, but I don’t think the proposed minimum wage increases would increase the cos of a cup of coffee by nearly that much. More like a few pennies to a quarter. Probably same for a meal. Would be much less in a five and dime or hardware store. The increases in minimum wage would increase the cost of most goods and services by just a few percent. Labor costs are not that big a proportion of the cost of most things we buy.

  70. 70
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    Strange, I responded to Steeple’s question about my husband and my reply got eated.

  71. 71
    Wapiti says:

    @jonas: This is why I’d prefer some sort of localized minimum wage, directed from the federal level. The federal government tracks cost of living across the country – it needs that data to reimburse employees when travelling, or plus up salaries for those in high cost areas. The data could likewise be used to set local federal minimum wages.

  72. 72
    MisterForkbeard says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    I’d appreciate having a locked in income, but then where’s the incentive to work overtime (beyond personal values and career advancement)?

    That’s basically the incentive. Good reviews and getting the job done. The key is to try and find a salaried position that doesn’t demand those things or has the compensation built in as part of the larger package – such as “We pay this job more because sometimes it has to work 50 hours/week”.

    This is basically what my job is. I work a 6-9 hour day and put in another couple hours in the evening from home. Occasionally I have 14 hour days. On the other hand, I make a good salary, get good stock and have great benefits so it’s mostly compensated. If I felt I wasn’t getting paid enough, I would ask for changes or quit. It helps that I’m skilled and have a lot of experience in a difficult area – the affected members of Bernie’s campaign staff probably can’t say the same thing.

  73. 73
  74. 74
    Another Scott says:

    @jonas: Of course, the bill phases in the increase over several years, and there’s still a lower minimum for tipped workers. It’ll be $15/h in 2025 and indexed to median wages thereafter.

    Too much of our policy debate is reduced to sound bites that are wrong. The minimum isn’t going to double the instant Pres. Harris/Warren signs the bill. The press does the country a real disservice by not pointing out more of the details.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  75. 75
    Steeplejack says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    All of your information is in the Deep Juice database. 👁

  76. 76
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @jonas:
    @Major Major Major Major:

    As a healthcare worker (fingers crossed, this semester is going to be rough), I’ll have the luxury of being able to go pretty much anywhere I want to go. I’m not sure if there’s a nursing shortage in Canada like in the US, but I’d move there if I could

  77. 77
    germy says:

    UPDATE: George Nader has been charged with having sex with a 14-year-old boy he allegedly transported to the U.S. from Europe https://t.co/5VgydVVazA— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) July 19, 2019

    “Only the best people”

  78. 78
    jl says:

    @jl: Forgot to post the link:

    Cost of Cup of Coffee Often Climbs After Minimum Wage Hikes
    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/cost-cup-coffee-climbs-after-minimum-wage-hikes-n394076

  79. 79
    Steeplejack says:

    @🐾BillinGlendaleCA:

    Wednesday was Amir Khalid’s birthday too.

  80. 80
    jl says:

    @debbie: A lot of the newspaper fact checker business, has turned into a racket. That story should have started with the disclaimer ‘fact checking such a vague qualitative claim is impossible, so we’ll just tell you a little bit about the history of the minimum wage.” They should do the same for GOPers too, when they say similar things.

    I guess that wouldn’t get the clicks, though, because people read them for the hope of an exciting Pinocchio or four alarm fire rating. Kessler at WaPo is particularly bad. He’s been rating completely true Democratic candidates’ statements as not completely true because he doesn’t like the comparison made, or the claim does not suite his taste in how to compare things, or what the best comparison is, or some other excuse. Probably, really because the WaPo editorial poobahs or ownership told him to. Or he is trying to calibrate the Holy Balance.

  81. 81
    KSinMA says:

    @Feathers: “Companies who don’t pay living wages are costing taxpayers money.”

    THIS.

  82. 82
    debbie says:

    @jl:

    Sounds like he wants to curate the country’s opinions. //

  83. 83

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: @MisterForkbeard: when I started drawing a salary after years of hourly work, it was so amazingly freeing. And I’ve not as a salaried employee worked (regularly) more than 40-hour weeks.

  84. 84
    rikyrah says:

    What Americans Do Now Will Define Us Forever
    If multiracial democracy cannot be defended in America, it will not be defended elsewhere.
    JUL 18, 2019
    Adam Serwer
    Staff writer at The Atlantic

    Trump’s nationalist innovation is not taking pride in his country, supporting a principled non-interventionism, or even advocating strict enforcement of immigration laws. The only thing new Trump brings to the American nationalism of recent decades is a restoration of its old ethnic-chauvinist tradition. Conservative intellectuals cannot rescue nationalism from Trump, any more than they could rescue Goldwater from Jim Crow, because Trump’s explicit appeals to racial and religious traditionalism, and his authoritarian approach to enforcing those hierarchies, are the things that have bound conservative voters so closely to him. The failure of the conservative intelligentsia to recognize this is why it was caught so off-guard by Trump’s rise to begin with.

    At a rally last night in North Carolina, Trump was reminding the country of this truth. Last week, the president told four Democratic congresswomen—Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib, and Ilhan Omar—to “go back” to their countries, even though all of them are American citizens. This is literally textbook racism. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission offers “Go back to where you came from” as its example of potentially unlawful harassment on the basis of national origin.

    Trump’s demand is less a factual assertion than a moral one, an affirmation of the president’s belief that American citizenship is conditional for people of color, who should be grateful we are even allowed to be here. Some elected Republicans offered gentle rebukes; others defended the president’s remarks. But at his rally in North Carolina, Trump showed them all that the base is with him. The crowd erupted into chants of “Send her back” when the president mentioned Omar, the Minnesota representative who came to the United States as a refugee from Somalia.

    Republicans, in the week since Trump’s initial tweet attacking the four representatives, have tried to argue that the president was criticizing their left-wing views and “hatred for America,” or that the attacks on Omar were justified because of her past remarks about Israel. This is belied by the nature of the attack itself—not only did Trump say “countries” in his tweet telling the representatives to “go back,” but much of the bill of particulars against Omar that his supporters use to justify calling for her banishment also applies to the president, long a hyperbolic critic of the American political establishment.

    ………………..

    Faced with the president’s baldly expressed bigotry toward four women of color in Congress, Republicans turned to reporters to argue that his attacks are part of a clever political strategy, elevating four left-wing women of color into the faces of his opposition. I suspect these Republicans, and some political reporters, believe that this somehow exonerates Trump from the charge of bigotry, as though prejudice ceases to be prejudice if it becomes instrumental. In fact, the admission that fomenting racism and division is central to Trump’s strategy is a stunning rebuke to those political reporters and pundits who, for four years, have insisted that the rise of Trump is about anything else. Trump and his most ardent liberal critics are in full agreement about the nature of his appeal, even as they differ on its morality. Only the Trumpists, and those who wish to earn their respect, fail to see it.

    It also speaks to the futility of trying to somehow rescue a Trumpian nationalism from Trump. Racism is at the core of Trumpism. The movement cannot be rescued from its bigotry, and those at the National Conservatism Conference who believe it can are in denial. Conservatives can make their case for limited government, or for religious traditionalism, but as long as it is tied to Trump or Trumpism, it will be tainted. Trump is not a champion of the civic nationalism Hazony and others claim they want to see. He is a mortal threat to it.

  85. 85

    @germy:

    Would the hike to minimum wage for diner employees eliminate tips?

    Not necessarily. Here on the Left Coast, there’s no difference between the tipped and untipped minimum wage, and people still leave tips. FWIW, I think this has helped rather than hurt the restaurant business. People choose restaurants as much for the service as for the food, and you get much better service from people who are earning a decent living and can afford to stay in their job as a long-term employment option rather than people who will jump to something better the moment they get the chance.

  86. 86

    @jonas:

    If every local diner in the area I live (where the median income is about $10k lower than the national) raised the price of their morning breakfast fare by $1-2, say, people would eat out much less often, or just stop eating out altogether.

    Again, though, you’re assuming that raising the minimum wage wouldn’t help the incomes of the people eating at those diners. Many of those people would see their own wages rise, either because they’re currently below the new minimum wage or because they’re not too far above it and their employers would feel pressure to raise their wages to keep them ahead of all the other, now more attractive jobs that are earning minimum wage.

  87. 87
    jl says:

    @rikyrah: Thanks. Good analysis.

    The excuses that the Trumpster flunkies have given have been pathetic and vile. And when they try to deflect from the racism and xenophobia, they turn it into something even worse, that should scare every sane person (I doubt any left in Trump’s hard core base).

    For example the contemptible Lindsay Graham said that Trump would have warmly welcomed a Somali refugee who supported him and wore a MAGA hat. Let’s set aside the fact that Graham’s claim is an absurd lie that only hard core Trumpsters would pretend to believe. Think what it means. Trump is not the president of the whole country, only of his supporters. No matter what your race, ethnicity, religion, place of birth, how long your ancestors have been here, no matter what, if you don’t support Trump, you should ‘go back to where you came from’. So Graham’s attempt to distract from Trump’s racism and xenophobia just ended up saying it was OK to turn this country’s democracy into an authoritarian personality cult. Those swearing personal loyalty to the Dear Leader are legitimate US citizens, everyone else, every single one who does not, is not a legitimate US citizen who does NOT even physically belongs here, does not deserve any consideration from the Dear Leader.

    What vile hate and garbage coming out of their mouths.

  88. 88
    Steeplejack says:

    @Roger Moore:

    Also assuming that the increase would be $1 or $2 a meal; might not be that much.

  89. 89
    rikyrah says:

    @jl:

    They are upset about ‘send her back’, because they can’t hide behind it, and pretend that it’s anything other than what it is. It’s so explicit, and people get it , and aren’t having it with those who try to pretend that it means something other than what it says

    The ugliness is the point.

    The Vichy Times asked people if they had been told to ‘ go back to ______’

    They got 16,000 responses.

  90. 90
    Gravenstone says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: That’s often entirely contingent on how your employer handles hourly employees. If they limit their hours so that they not only aren’t eligible for overtime, but often benefits as well, then salaried may well be preferable. If they schedule full time for hourly, and even “allow” (as some places still try to skirt the requirement) overtime, then hourly can be the better path. Of course, salaried employees can be abused as well. Especially when expected to work excessive hours, for which the employer is under no obligation to compensate them.

  91. 91
    Wapiti says:

    @Roger Moore: you’re assuming that raising the minimum wage wouldn’t help the incomes of the people eating at those diners.

    My elderly father often points out that minimum wage increases and the related increase in diner prices affects people living off of Social Security and pensions earned in the ’60s and ’70s. He still picks up the tab half the time.

  92. 92
    WhatsMyNym says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    I meant that getting on my knees on a hard wood floor to grab something that fell hurts

    See a specialist, ASAP. You’re 24 not 54.
    When I was 29 I took up tennis again (still sucked) and running.

  93. 93
    James E Powell says:

    @Baud:

    Lots of things poll popular, but don’t affect how people vote. That’s why we have so much difficulty with gun regulation, but our voters don’t prioritize it like theirs do.

    See also, abortion rights.

  94. 94
    Richard Guhl says:

    How often does this actually happen?
    I looked at Joe Manchin’s record over at 538, and while he supported Trump’s position more often than not, his actual votes in favor of Trump’s position were either mostly yes votes on his nominees or in favor of budget agreements where Trump basically caved to Pelosi.
    On crucial votes like on Trump’s tax cuts or killing the ACA, or reinstating net neutrality, Manchin stood with fellow Democrats.

  95. 95
    Miss Bianca says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Also, as others noted, since everything is partisan now, supporting many popular things will lose you voters if it’s in a polarizing area like gun policy. Just ask the Colorado Dems about that one.

    Yep. Just hoping I don’t get decked or run over for giving the finger to the mouth-breathers in my county with their RECALL POLIS!! petitions.

  96. 96
    J R in WV says:

    @Litlebritdifrnt:

    Well, best of luck on the Immigration issue. Unfortunately, asking a government agency anywhere for consistency and adherence to rules is a pretty big ask. Keep us posted, though, we’re all hoping you guys get back together soonest.

    Governments, keeping families apart since Babylon!!

  97. 97
    The Moar You Know says:

    Problem is, let’s say you’re running for Seante in a purple state. $15 minimum wage is supported by 60% of voters. Well, 50% of the country now lives in only 16 states. Those states already have Dem Senators. So now you can have an idea supported by a large majority of the country, but it’s an idea that will get you bounced out of office if you run on it in the other 30 states that are, shall we say, not so enlightened.

    This urban liberal/rural conservative divide is going to be the end of the damn country, as I am not willing to be told what to do by a bunch of stupid rednecks when my state is literally paying their bills. Problem is the dumb rednecks have a stranglehold on the Electoral College and the Senate, so as things currently stand, I have to pay their bills and get no say so in the nations political process. Literal taxation without representation.

  98. 98
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @jl:

    Trump is not the president of the whole country, only of his supporters. No matter what your race, ethnicity, religion, place of birth, how long your ancestors have been here, no matter what, if you don’t support Trump, you should ‘go back to where you came from’. So Graham’s attempt to distract from Trump’s racism and xenophobia just ended up saying it was OK to turn this country’s democracy into an authoritarian personality cult. Those swearing personal loyalty to the Dear Leader are legitimate US citizens, everyone else, every single one who does not, is not a legitimate US citizen who belongs here.

    That’s the scariest part. He doesn’t even try to pretend anymore that’s he the president for all of America. That, if he could get away with it, he would have ordinary citizens who care deeply for the direction of this country shot to death if they inconvenienced or threatened his power in any way. That he would sick the National Guard on a Women’s March-like mass protest if he could because he’s such a thin-skinned narcissist.

    I can’t help but think how ridiculous it is that this clown from Queens could be the one to destroy American democracy and begin a reign of terror, all because he couldn’t stand being mocked by a black man, and thought the campaign was just going to be some scam to enrich himself and he’d lose. He’s the dog that’s caught the car and now he’ll try to bring us all down with him. In the end, if he succeeds, no one will truly be safe, not even his most advent supporters. After all, piss off the wrong powerful person and you could disappear; it’s not like Trump would give a shit about nobodies

  99. 99
    James E Powell says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I wonder how it would have polled if the question had not phrased it as a Democratic proposal opposed by Republicans.

  100. 100
    Feathers says:

    @Steeplejack: The article linked by jl above: @jl:
    points out that the actual cost increases from increased minimum wage for most restaurants would be less than a penny per dollar per dollar, or about twelve cents on my monthly or so diner breakfast locally. Of course, what actually happens is the asshole owner raises prices by $2 and bitches loudly at everyone about how the government is robbing him blind. All the customers don’t want to hear that shit and start going to the new, fancier, hipster joint down the street which doesn’t cost that much more now anyway and has better food. Mr. Diner goes out of business and is on every news program, blaming the government and doing ads for the Republican candidate for governor the next election cycle.

  101. 101
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    @germy:

    Our great German Wehrmacht is flourishing in Stalingrad. — David Sirota (@davidsirota) 31 January, 1943

  102. 102
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @WhatsMyNym:
    I can run just fine. The knees themselves don’t hurt, it’s just all my weight being placed on them on a hard surface that hurts them. After I get up they’re fine

  103. 103
    jl says:

    @rikyrah: I agree. Exactly. No way to disguise, hide it or excuse it, from the viewpoint of a mind not sickened by racism fear and hate. And attempts to do so only lead to more ugliness and hate to the vast majority in the US.

    So, the GOP and Trumspter flunkies who realize the unsolvable dilemma of catering to Trump, and realize this could well mean disaster for them, are scared and cornered, and also enslaved by Trump. Trump, a fool (in addition to how many other unsavory characteristics), is oblivious, will wreck their attempts to salvage the unsalvageable, and will forge ahead with hate whenever his whims, or his anger, or his deranged rally crowds, move him.

  104. 104
    J R in WV says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷:

    I meant that getting on my knees on a hard wood floor to grab something that fell hurts

    If you’re only 24 this typical maneuver shouldn’t hurt… ask a joint doc, you may have a medical issue. I have trouble like this, but I’m pushing 70 and have serious osteoarthritis. I do know from friends with RA that the earlier treatment begins the less permanent damage is done. Not to be scary! But there it is.

  105. 105
    PJ says:

    @Roger Moore: The fear is of restaurant owners is this: with restaurants, raising all wages to at least $15 means menu prices go up immediately. This won’t hurt high end places, where people expect to pay a lot of money, but for medium or budget priced restaurants, customers see the increase, are shocked, and go home (or don’t come back). For most people, restaurants are not a necessity (except maybe for lunch at work), so it’s something they can cut out of their life. Eventually, customers will realize that, if they want to go to a restaurant anywhere in their locale, they will have to pay these higher prices, but in the meantime many restaurants will have closed due to lack of business. (Gradual but steady increases in the minimum wage would alleviate this problem.)

  106. 106
    David Koch says:

    Best thing I’ve seen this week:

    Latinos clutching the flag while watching the US Women’s team. (photo)😂

  107. 107
    James E Powell says:

    @PJ:

    I don’t believe that any studies ever confirmed the “raise in minimum wage caused businesses to close” argument. It’s not like other costs are not increasing all the time. It’s just this one that draws the most fire. Because after all, how much are dishwashers really worth if all they can do is get a dishwasher job?

  108. 108

    @PJ:

    Gradual but steady increases in the minimum wage would alleviate this problem.

    Which is why proposals to raise the minimum wage always do that rather than cranking it up a bunch all at once. The proposals to raise the minimum to $15 are talking about doing it by $1/year, not immediately. Again, my general feeling is that owners think about wage increases as something that affects only them rather than looking at the big picture, and they certainly don’t think about the macroeconomic picture that raising the minimum wage will disproportionately raise the purchasing power of poor people.

  109. 109
  110. 110
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: If you keep that up one the actual old people will drive to Ohio and kill you.

  111. 111
    satby says:

    @Baud: you promised me never to talk about that little episode 😵

  112. 112

    @Omnes Omnibus: Old here means older than Goku.

  113. 113
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @satby:
    Thanks!
    @Omnes Omnibus:

    It’s a matter of perspective, really. Sometimes I just feel old and I’m amazed at how much time has gone by. I only have 6 years left until I’m 30. It will go faster from there so I have to make the most of my time now

    @J R in WV:
    Like I said, it’s not joints, it’s the weight of my body pressing against the floor on my knees, which presses back equally, is what hurts. It hurts the surface of my kneecaps

  114. 114
    plato says:

    Angela Merkel was asked if she supported the congresswomen being attacked by Trump. Her response, via The Independent:"Yes. Yes. Without question, I reject and stand in solidarity with the congresswomen he targeted." pic.twitter.com/uUzLw3BtCE— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) July 19, 2019

  115. 115
    Lapassionara says:

    @J R in WV: I have RA. I have an amazing treatment, and I am so grateful for it.

    My earliest symptom was swollen knuckles, but maybe it can go to knees first.

    Take care of yourself, Goku!

  116. 116
    Shana says:

    @Baud: Based on my experience of having presidential campaign staffers living with us during the ’08 and’12 campaigns, they left the house around 7 am and returned around 11pm. Assuming an hour of commuting time at either end that’s 14 hours a day, times $15 an hour is $210 a day, times 7days a week is $1,470 a week, times 4 weeks in a month makes $5,880 a month. My recollection is that it’s a significant increase in pay, something like $3,000 a month so roughly double.

    Perhaps someone knows if my figures are correct.

  117. 117
    J R in WV says:

    @jl:

    …Those swearing personal loyalty to the Dear Leader are legitimate US citizens, everyone else, every single one who does not, is not a legitimate US citizen who does NOT even physically belongs here, does not deserve any consideration from the Dear Leader.

    What vile hate and garbage coming out of their mouths.

    What amazes me is that the “leaders” of the Republicans don’t even appear to see that their excuses for trumpian bigotry are at least as bad as the trumpian bigotry they attempt to excuse.

    Lindsey is especially despicable!

  118. 118
    Mary G says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: @J R in WV: Happy belated birthday, Goku.

    I have to second the recs to see a doctor; I came down with RA at 23; just knees hurting in yoga class. X-rays showed I already had moderate joint damage in my hands and feet that had not hurt at all.

    This year is my 40th anniversary with Arthur. There weren’t any great drugs then, but now there are. People who have insurance and can afford the co-pay will do much better, and a lot of the manufacturers give co-pay support now. If it’s nothing, you just lost an hour or two and will have peace of mind. JR is right; the sooner people start treatment, the better they do.

  119. 119
    plato says:

    So I guess the story we’re going with is that we can impeach a president for lying about an affair. But not for lying about an affair & bribing someone else to lie & colluding with a foreign govt & being accused of rape by dozens of women and children. Okay then.— Ashley Nicole Black (@ashleyn1cole) July 19, 2019

    Rules apply only to dems. The fucking iokiyar meme never reaches the end despite the despicable depths the rethugs reach.

  120. 120
    Doug R says:

    @germy: Sirota is on Wilmer’s campaign.

  121. 121
    Another Scott says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: Just wait until you hit 25!

    Seriously, I had a near existential crisis then (compared to any other birthday).

    “OMG! My life is likely more than 1/4 over!!1 And I’m still in school!!11”

    ;-)

    Hang in there, get yourself checked out, and happy birthday!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  122. 122
    VOR says:

    @ruemara: I remember a few years ago when Tom Emmer (R), now in Michele Bachmann’s old seat, claimed waiters often made > $100k per year and therefore had no need for an increase in the wage for tipped employees.

  123. 123
    Mary G says:

    @Another Scott: I know, I was a quarter of a century old! Woe is me! Never freaked out about a birthday since.

  124. 124
    Gvg says:

    @WhatsMyNym: this should not hurt at your age. I am 55 and I get down on my knees a lot, gardening and building a shed and cleaning my house with tile floor. It does not hurt yet, and I am overweight. My father 77 had knee injuries which has resulted in a lot of sensitivity like you describe. There are a lot of possible reasons, but take care of it young.

  125. 125

    @VOR:
    Minnesota is one of the few places outside the West Coast that doesn’t have a separate, lower minimum wage for tipped employees, and I’m sure that the kind of Republicans who dislike everything about the minimum wage are angrier about that than about the minimum wage in general.

  126. 126
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    @PJ: Good summary but incomplete. A few years back Baltimore City proposed raising the minimum wage. A restaurant owner I know, a solid Democrat in all other matters, was livid: “We’re having enough trouble persuading people to come downtown as it is, what happens when we have to raise our prices to compensate for this [while restaurants in the surrounding counties don’t]?” Since then the MD General Assembly voted to gradually raise the minimum wage to $15/hr statewide by 2025, GOV Hogan (R) vetoed the increase, & the General Assembly overrode the veto – so the issue is moot but the city/counties divide (Baltimore is one of very few cities in the US which is its own county-level subdivision of the state) historically causes all kinds of problems because the surrounding counties are largely populated by former City residents who emigrated ;) in search of lower taxes, better schools, safer environments, etc.

  127. 127
    goblue72 says:

    @Kent: If you can read English, you will see the demand is not from wage employees. Its from salaried employees who want their salaries increased such that they are effectively earning $15 per hour based on the actual hours worked.

    Its a pretty important distinction.

  128. 128
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @goblue72: If you can read English

    still making friends and influencing people, eh Dwight?

    How’s the cubicle today?

  129. 129
    frosty says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: Time does move faster. I’m convinced our perception of time is based on comparison of how long we’ve lived. So a year to a 12 year old feels like 6 months to a 24 year old or 3 months to a 48 year old…. 6 weeks if you make it to 96.

    Happy Birthday and pay attention to every day!! Don’t let the next 24 fly by without noticing.

  130. 130

    Polls say it’s popular but a candidate can’t win if they support it? Does not compute does not compute beep beep beep.

    It does if you understand that these numbers do not exist in a vacuum, and a policy people support in a vacuum they will fanatically vote against in the booth. See the ACA.

  131. 131
    sherparick says:

    @Another Scott: These budget deficit narratives of the Beltway Media are as old as I am. The Democrats should insist on the Republican Senate passing the debt ceiling increase with Republican Votes and a majority of Republicans in the House or they should simply abolish the debt ceiling. “Bitter pill” is rich.

  132. 132
    MisterForkbeard says:

    @goblue72: Yep. I made the same point earlier except without being a jerk about it. It’s not ideal, but it’s not a real problem and I don’t see it as hypocrisy from Bernie. That’s how salaried positions work.

    I suppose you could make the point that Bernie should be paying his salaried employees enough so that they’re making $15/hour, but it IS a different concern.

  133. 133
    jonas says:

    @Roger Moore:

    Many of those people would see their own wages rise,

    That may be true, though not for “many.” One thing you have to remember about rural areas vs. metro: lots more people on fixed incomes. If their $1.50 cup of coffee goes up to $2, they’re going to be mad. At least in my neck of the woods, boosting SS payments would probably add a lot more to the local economy than boosting the minimum wage.

  134. 134
    polyorchnid octopunch says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: That is certainly what the data seems to show. However, for our MotU, that means they have to share, which is why you find that the economists who hack on Keynes tend to be very well funded.

  135. 135
    jonas says:

    @PJ: This is exactly right. Some fancy place called “Le Grenouille d’Or” is probably paying its highly-trained staff well over the minimum anyway. This won’t hit them very hard (aside from maybe the cost of some of their produce or other ingredients) Who gets squeezed are the little mom-and-pop diners and family restaurants in flyover country where a lot of retirees or working-class types still eat out because it’s what they can afford it. Believe me, they’re *really* price sensitive. Raise a menu item by even a buck or two, and they’ll just stop coming.

  136. 136
    Butter emails!!! says:

    @jonas:
    1. As others have pointed out, all these plans contain gradual increases. The cost of a $2 coffee won’t go up a dollar overnight unless the owner is an asshat.
    2. The working class people sensitive to a one dollar shift in prices are probably also going to get a raise because their wages will adjust accordingly.
    3. We can give Grandma and Grandpa an extra 30 dollars a month to spend on their lattes if we need to. Raising the minimum wage and raising SS payments aren’t mutually exclusive.

  137. 137
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Baud: Isn’t the whole thing an issue of faith?

  138. 138
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Baud: By used to it do mean get restraining orders?

  139. 139
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Another Scott: @Mary G: Car insurance rates drop at 25 for guys. Also, if you are living in Germany, you can get youth/young adult train ticket prices until you are 26.

  140. 140
    Martin says:

    Yeah, that’s how it worked in my district. We’d been Republican forever, but got a Dem who suppported single payer, and all of the other liberal stuff, now including impeachment. She still won. The opposing money was there, but it was always going to be there. In a sense, the more money you put into politics, the less value it has, so you might as well just do your thing. What’s another million from the Chamber of Commerce in the grand scheme?

  141. 141
    terry chay says:

    Meta analysis of politics has shown that the strongest correlate to liberal/conservative voting record is margin of victory (not candidate background or stated position).

    When it comes to purple districts, these people need to give them larger margins of victory to the Democrat. Until they do, they should expect terrible candidates with terrible policy decisions, or, in the case of John Cole’s senator in a Red state, the opposite of what they voted for.

  142. 142
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    @J R in WV: Now wait a goldang minute. It depends on what kind of pain. If it’s the joints themselves, I agree he’s just a tad young.

    But I’m guessing his pain is the same as what I (turning 70 this year) experience: The flesh on my kneecaps is very thin & the caps themselves are irregular so going to my knees on a hard surface pinches the superficial nerves & it hurts like hell. Meanwhile I walk & dance with no problems. Situation’s similar to what happened to my mom in her 70s when she thought she had brain cancer but it turned out to be neck problems that inflamed the superficial nerves that ran across her scalp, giving her “skullcap headaches.” Took the MDs a while to figure that out because they didn’t ask her the right questions till aways down the line.

  143. 143
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: And bangalore, it is being precisely as I was diagnosing it! :p

  144. 144
    terry chay says:

    Minimum wage has shown to boost employment, the economy and increase spending. In the 1990’s this analysis was done by comparing areas in a tri-state region (states had minimum wages set to different levels), with the movement occurring in cities (San Francisco, for instance, has a minimum wage of $20/hr), you can see it between the cities and the surrounding area.

    The historical argument against minimum wages is that it would do the opposite because people “would trade leisure for work” in their utility for time. Basically every study has shown this to not be true (at least at the wage levels that we have seen in the real world).

    The issue is that this doesn’t come out of thin air. Since something like a restaurant business is both localized and competitive, a business cannot raise prices 100% to cover the increase costs (or taxes, in the case of the taxes), instead the business bears some of the burden and its share is determined the elasticity of demand for competing goods/services. In other words, in the case of restaurants, maybe the price goes up by 10% of the costs and the business eats the other 90% in the form of decreased profits to the business owner. In this way it is understandable why the business owner is against minimum wage increases even if the overall situation is better (in my example, San Francisco restaurants continue to steal diners from the neighboring Bay Area cities and that rate has only increased with the larger minimum wages and higher business taxes).

    The reason the local economy gets boosted is those extra costs (in the form of higher wages) goes into the hand of someone who almost always spends it and mostly locally. This benefits those local businesses in this form too, but it isn’t direct so a business owner isn’t going to see it. This is the reverse of “trickle down” economics and is why things like the New Deal and the stimulus bill after the 2008 crash worked so well.

  145. 145
    Mary G says:

    OK, I was told there would be no math.

  146. 146
    Ohio Mom says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: Happy Birthday, many more, go to a doctor about your knees.

    A little PT and strengthening exercise might be all you need.
    On the other hand, my BIL’s brother hobbled for six months and through thee doctors before the last one did an X-ray and found a fracture in his tibia. So that’s where the shooting pains were coming from!

    We oldsters all have stories like that. Gotta stay on the doctors’ cases, always.

    Consider demanding more care from your personal doc part of your training as a nurse. Your future is wrangling doctor after doctor as you advocate for your patients.

    Good luck with the coming semester. If worse comes to worse, that’s why they invented Ws (class withdrawals).

    Go get ‘em!

  147. 147
    Martin says:

    @jonas: Turns out that doesn’t happen. Seems like it should happen – but it doesn’t happen. A restaurant that much on the edge can be taken out just as easily by construction on the road by their place. IOW, it’s a fragile business no matter what. Either they figured out how to stay ahead of things and build themselves a decent margin, or they didn’t, in which case a wage hike just becomes any other variable that they are ill equipped to deal with. So we tend to see correlation when there really isn’t any.

    At the same time, those extra wages are helping a bunch of other businesses. The fallacy here is that wage economics are zero sum. They aren’t. The recommendation is for restaurants to spend 20% to 30% on wages. So if they see a 20% wage increase, that’s only increasing the restaurant owner’s costs by 4%-6%. That’s the real impact on the menu, but now the workers at that restaurant really do have 20% more to spend.

    The reason this is asymmetrical is because commodities are not priced according to labor, output that is automated isn’t priced according to labor, and rent-seeking activities aren’t priced according to labor. None of those cost change, and in a lot of cases those costs are what dominates business expenses – particularly the rent seeking. You have parts of the country like here in CA where commercial rents have doubled in the last 5 years. That a much bigger part of the businesses overhead than wages are.

    Wages and taxes do not doom businesses, because wages and taxes apply equally. All of your competitors have exactly the same problem you do. The only way you really lose is if you’re in competition with a business that has a very different business model. So if the cost of taxi medallions goes up making Uber become more attractive. But in that case, I’d argue you have a fragile business if you’re ignoring why Uber is there doing what it’s doing and you need to adapt to that business model. The rise in medallion costs may be a catalyst, but it’s not the cause for the problem. In a lot of cases, the competition is successful not because they’re offering a cheaper product, but because they’re offering a better one. Amazon is not cheaper but they are often more convenient.

    California has the strongest economy in the US and also the highest taxes and the highest or among the highest minimum wages. And we still attract businesses here. Farmers here are generally paying more than $15/hr for field workers because it’s gotten so hard to hire them. Nobody is really struggling because of that.

  148. 148
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: Three things: First, belated happy birthday wishes. Second, age is only a number. Third, I might be the only person who understood what you were saying about your knees.

  149. 149
    Richard Guhl says:

    @terry chay:
    Manchin is as good as it possibly gets in WVA. If he voted based on the partisanship reflected in Trump’s margin of victory, he’d support Trump 91.7% of the time. But he doesn’t, especially on economic issues.
    His Trump score according to 538 is 56.4, 39% less than predicted.

  150. 150
    Michael Cain says:

    In initiative states, subjects go in and out of favor. During recent years, a higher minimum wage has been popular. Arizona’s 2016 initiative, which included modest mandatory paid sick leave, passed 58-42. That was slightly higher yes vote than the polling had suggested. Other trendy subjects have been redistricting commissions, more relaxed marijuana laws, and even Medicaid expansion.

  151. 151
    Michael Cain says:

    @Richard Guhl: If Manchin decides to run for governor again and wins, it gets really tough for the Dems to win the US Senate in 2020.

  152. 152
    geg6 says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Nope. I got it, too. Never didn’t have pain when kneeling, even as a kid when I knelt on padded kneelers at church. And as a Catholic kid in the 60s, I did a lot of kneeling. Otherwise, no problem with my knees. Now, my feet, hands and hips are a whole other thing, but those are due to being old, wearing heels most of my life and having tended bar all through college, grad school and early years of my career. With heels on. Good for tips, as were tight pants and tight t-shirts or low cut blouses. :-)

  153. 153
    Steeplejack says:

    Does anybody have any remotely factual basis for accepting the premise that “my meal” or a “menu item” is going to go up by $1 or $2 if we institute (gradually) the horror of a $15 minimum wage?

    I thought it was projected to cost asshole Papa John only an extra 25 cents a pie to give all his employees health insurance.

  154. 154
    Steeplejack says:

    @terry chay:

    Until they do, they should expect terrible candidates with terrible policy decisions, or, in the case of John Cole’s senator in a Red state, the opposite of what they voted for.

    See above.

  155. 155
    Ruckus says:

    @Roger Moore:
    I’ve written here before that I’ve owned a couple small businesses. And I can tell you that a lot of the small business owners that I’ve known over the years see this exactly as you say, through the lens of only their own business, how that will hurt or help them.
    It is difficult for some to separate out the big picture from the small one. When basically your entire life revolves around that business you have to work to sometimes see the bigger picture. I know because I’ve had this very discussion with others. And in my business the only people who made close to minimum wage was the people with no experience at all.

  156. 156
    Ruckus says:

    @Steeplejack:
    If his price goes up $.25 then he figures he has to raise his price $2 because all the people in the chain of supply for his shitty pizza will get a raise. And any costs have to be multiplied by 400% for him to make enough to bother to make his shitty pizza. I never said he was any better at math than at making shitty pizza.

  157. 157
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @geg6:

    With heels on. Good for tips, as were tight pants and tight t-shirts or low cut blouses.

    Probably worked better for you than it would have for me.

  158. 158
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Steeplejack:
    And no airliner crashed or got shot down, for which I am grateful.

Comments are closed.