Disaster Looms in New Orleans

New Orleans is about to get hammered with a Hurricane while the rivers are already near flood levels, and this is going to be bad.

Please get out. If any readers need a place to stay email me and we can coordinate. You can come here, I can come get you, and I am sure there are others all over the place who would be willing to help out.

LamH where the hell are you woman? Are you safe?






127 replies
  1. 1
    J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford says:

    You’re good man, John Cole.

    ReplyReply
  2. 2
    chopper says:

    yeah the models are not good for this storm. the levees are likely to take a beating.

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  3. 3
    Martin says:

    Well, the good news is that we don’t have Heckavajob Brownie as FEMA director.

    [checks internet]

    Ok, we don’t have any directors or assistant directors running FEMA. Bunch of acting people that, surely must be qualified if Trump put them in charge of an agency.

    [checks news]

    Ok. There may be a brief outbreak of cannibalism on the gulf coast this week.

    ReplyReply
  4. 4
    AnotherBruce says:

    @Martin: I hope that the cannibals are going to eat the wealthy, more tasty.

    ReplyReply
  5. 5
    Martin says:

    More seriously:

    A) This isn’t yet even a hurricane and
    B) It has barely even reached Louisiana

    and already Nola is flooding heavily? What happens when a real hurricane shows up?

    ReplyReply
  6. 6
    Martin says:

    @AnotherBruce: All the rich people got out. They’re at the stripper golf tournament at Trumps resort.

    ReplyReply
  7. 7
    lamh36 says:

    Hello. BJ.

    Hello!

    I’m here and it’s all good. I live west of downtown near NOLA airport. And majority my family are all East of downtown. Downtown NOLA and Central City was where the flooding was.

    The rain here in Metairie stopped hours ago. Haven’t heard anything about the type of flooding here as there was in NOLA.

    I know about the hurricane this weekend, but since I work in a hospital we have designated hurricane teams. I’m on team B, but I am scheduled to work this weekend. Tomorrow is a meeting to decide if they will activate teams. Right now though, it’s all good!

    thx for checking

    ReplyReply
  8. 8
    trollhattan says:

    @Martin:
    Mulvaney’s available. No prob.

    ReplyReply
  9. 9
    chopper says:

    @Martin:

    jared can step in, he knows everything.

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  10. 10
    jl says:

    @trollhattan: Glad to hear things are not as bad as Cole feared, at least yet.

    ” I love west of downtown near NOLA airport. ”
    Typo, I guess.

    ReplyReply
  11. 11
    Doug R says:

    @chopper:

    yeah the models are not good for this storm. the levees are likely to take a beating.

    Levees are already at their design limits, a hurricane storm surge now would probably put them over.
    Overtopped levees ALWAYS FAIL.

    ReplyReply
  12. 12
    AnotherBruce says:

    @Martin: God I thought you were kidding about the strippers. Is Epstein at the first tee box? God these people are f***ed up. I still think the cannibals should eat the wealthy. But not Trump because he would taste terrible, and he’s not wealthy.

    ReplyReply
  13. 13
    TomatoQueen says:

    Remind me, Jacy is somewhere in LA, perhaps Baton Rouge or elsewhere? In any case, all persons of the New Orleans and environs persuasion please check in AT ONCE.

    ReplyReply
  14. 14
    Nicole says:

    @lamh36: Thanks for the update!

    ReplyReply
  15. 15
    Martin says:

    @AnotherBruce: It’s not possible to parody this group.

    ReplyReply
  16. 16
    TenguPhule says:

    @Martin:

    There may be a brief outbreak of cannibalism on the gulf coast this week.

    Brief? Feeling a burst of optimism there?

    ReplyReply
  17. 17
    cmorenc says:

    The system won’t have enough time and open water to develop a devastatingly strong wind-field – probably won’t exceed more than a blustery 45 mph or so at landfall except over a very small area.

    HOW-EVER: the biggest danger from landfalling tropical storms / marginal hurricanes is: the prodigious rainfall that accompanies them, especially if the system is slow-moving during/after landfall. For example, Hurricane Floyd in 1999 weakened to a borderline cat-1 / cat-2 storm when it made landfall south of Wilmington, NC, and its wind-field weakened rapidly before it moved very far inland, and its rather modest storm surge was very localized to the southeastern-most part of the coast near Wilmington. NEVERTHELESS, the prodigious, prolonged rains it causes as the decaying tropical low moved very slowly caused enormous flooding across a far wider area of NC than were affected by wind or surge. For example, Rocky Mount, NC 120 miles inland from the landfall point experienced record flooding.

    ReplyReply
  18. 18
    TenguPhule says:

    @Doug R: 18 inches of rain are the current model predictions.

    Katrina II Electric Boogaloo.

    ReplyReply
  19. 19
    Bex says:

    @TomatoQueen: I think she’s in Baton Rouge. Haven’t seen her here lately. Hope she checks in.

    ReplyReply
  20. 20
    West of the Rockies says:

    @chopper:

    Thank FSM for J-rod!//

    ReplyReply
  21. 21
    Starfish says:

    @Martin: They are getting double whammied with water already being high from all the water from the midwest that went down the Mississippi river. The fresh water mixing with the salt water led to a huge algae bloom that closed beaches all along the Gulf of Mexico, and this is rough for all the coastal fishermen and shrimpers.

    ReplyReply
  22. 22
    The Dangerman says:

    @Martin:

    Ok. There may be a brief outbreak of cannibalism on the gulf coast this week.

    OK. So you’re saying I should be careful for a while when I tell Trump to eat me. Gotcha.

    ReplyReply
  23. 23
    satby says:

    Some predictions I saw said potentially two feet of rain in an already overflowing area from the almost continual rains in the Midwest flowing into the rivers and down the Mississippi. My local river emptied into Lake Michigan, but we’ve been only a couple of feet below flood stage since spring.
    It’s a long hike, but if someone needs a place to stay come on up!

    ReplyReply
  24. 24
    chopper says:

    @Starfish:

    also, this hurricane is going to be going right through a huge number of the oil rigs offshore, and they’ll have to be shut down. dunno how bad it’ll impact gas prices.

    ReplyReply
  25. 25
    MomSense says:

    @TomatoQueen:

    She’s in Baton Rouge. Please check in, Jacy!!

    John you are one of the truly good guys.

    ReplyReply
  26. 26
    Jerome McDonough says:

    @cmorenc: what you said. The remnants of Floyd dropped 15” of rain in 24 hours in Ossining (where I was living at the time). 15” of rain in hilly terrain does nasty things to anything in a low spot.

    ReplyReply
  27. 27
    Immanentize says:

    @lamh36: Thank YOU for checking in. Sheesh. I swear that this is just my purgatory and I am suffering now for heaven later.
    Please do not yourself suffer!

    ReplyReply
  28. 28
    p.a. says:

    Is NOLA going to have to be sacrificed to bury another ass hole* admin? Couldn’t the FSM give another city the ‘honor’ this time?!

    *spellcheck changed asshole to ass hole. Is this correct?

    ReplyReply
  29. 29
    redactor says:

    @AnotherBruce: it’s the marbling.

    ReplyReply
  30. 30
    Barbara says:

    @MomSense: We haven’t heard from Jacy in a while. I think someone has tried to contact her without success. I know she has faced a lot of upheaval recently and I sincerely hope she is okay.

    ReplyReply
  31. 31
    sgrAstar says:

    @lamh36: good news. Take care and do not hesitate to ask for reinforcements!

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  32. 32
    Anotherlurker says:

    @cmorenc: A Hurricane is not necessary for massive damage. I am a survivor of Superstorm Sandy. Her winds never reached Hurricane force.
    Still, it was enough enough to cause massive damage fro L.I., NYC and N.J.
    After the storm, lives were destroyed by FEMA, National Flood Insurance Program, The Insurance companies, the SBA, the banks, engineering and construction scams, etc. etc.

    ReplyReply
  33. 33
    rikyrah says:

    erica orden (@eorden) Tweeted:
    “Individuals from Main Justice were involved early on,” Acosta says. Epstein’s lawyers have said in court that they intend to argue that DOJ’s involvement means the nonprosecution agreement applies beyond the Florida district (i.e. in New York). https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1149033185386409984?s=17

    ReplyReply
  34. 34
    Aleta says:

    That’s a lot of fking rain in the last map.
    Take care @lamh36: + everyone.
    So sorry, New Orleans.
    Take care LA. lamh please let us know what you all need.

    ReplyReply
  35. 35
    Baud says:

    @rikyrah:

    Name names.

    ReplyReply
  36. 36
    Shana says:

    OT, I know, but IND TV is showing Children of Men, which is a terrific movie, but if you don’t know it’s about a futuristic England where “fugees” or refugees are being rounded up and put in camps. There’s a lot of other stuff going on too, no children have been born world-wide for 18 years. Highly recommended.

    I love when these channels program movies as a commentary on current events.

    ReplyReply
  37. 37
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    The National Hurricane Center has it coming (rainfall) ashore west of NOLA (wind speeds). Either way, I’m glad my youngest is up here for a visit just now.

    ReplyReply
  38. 38
    rikyrah says:

    @Baud:
    Uh huh
    Uh huh

    Name👏Names 👏

    ReplyReply
  39. 39
    Mj_Oregon says:

    Anyone wishing to follow news and advisories for this storm should read and bookmark Dr. Jeff Masters Cat 6 blog on wunderground.com. Lots of very knowledgeable people there and they don’t tolerate hype or trolls.

    That said, parts of New Orleans had 10 inches of rain today, which didn’t help with the strain on the levee system generated by all the rain upstream over the past few months. This storm could possibly be a catastrophe but it could just as easily fall apart and not be as bad as feared.

    If you go over to the Cat 6 blog, look for posts by “patrap” who lives in NO and helps run a disaster charity called Portlight. He’s very level headed and doesn’t scare easily, a good source for fact based information. I’ve got my fingers crossed that this thing never stacks up vertically with a closed center of circulation. It’s having problems getting organized.

    ReplyReply
  40. 40
    TomatoQueen says:

    My local news (wusa9) is giving the full tropical storm treatment. Predicting the track is squishy, but looks like it’s leaning to the Houston side. Not to be counted on and I think we all can remember when a storm predicted decided to do some other damn thing.

    Good to see lamh36.

    Everybody keep watch.

    ReplyReply
  41. 41
    satby says:

    @Shana: from a great PD James novel.

    ReplyReply
  42. 42
    Renie says:

    @Anotherlurker: Me too. It will be 7 years in the fall and people are still trying to recover and to get money owed them. Disgrace and very sad.

    ReplyReply
  43. 43
    J R in WV says:

    Hoping NOLA does OK with this unfolding weather pattern. No way to tell what will happen this far out. If major refugee status happens, look here on B-J for places for refuge.

    ReplyReply
  44. 44
    debbie says:

    Stay safe, everyone!

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    How’s his leg?

    ReplyReply
  45. 45
    sdhays says:

    This is Obama’s Katrina!!11!!!!

    ReplyReply
  46. 46
    debbie says:

    @rikyrah:

    That just better not be true.

    ReplyReply
  47. 47
    emrys says:

    Perhaps one of our computer savvy members could put together a private database of BJers who can provide shelter or assistance in case of need: location, room for people, accept pets, etc. These kinds of situations are only going to increase and that way we don’t have start from scratch each time. Not to be public, of course, but front pagers could arrange the contacts like with the pet rescues.

    ReplyReply
  48. 48
    Chyron HR says:

    This is Ob–DAMMIT

    ReplyReply
  49. 49
    Shana says:

    @satby: Yes. I keep meaning to read it. Perhaps at the beach next month.

    ReplyReply
  50. 50
    sdhays says:

    @rikyrah: I thought that the non-prosecution agreement was already voided as being illegal? So who gives a shit if an illegal agreement applies to NY as well as Florida?

    ReplyReply
  51. 51
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @debbie: Pretty good. Walks around no problem for the most part now. When Essence was going on his restaurant got swamped by attendees and he had to pull a 12 hr shift on the floor. Was hurting at the end of that day.

    ReplyReply
  52. 52
    Cermet says:

    Hope all holds and both the Mississippi flood waters and the tropical storm don’t breach the levies and the pumps handle all loads.

    In the long run, of course, sadly, thanks to AGW New Orleans is doomed. That said, still a lot of time there to enjoy life in that great city – just not for very young children in twenty to thirty years. .

    ReplyReply
  53. 53
    debbie says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    That would be a long day for a healthy person. Glad he’s better.

    ReplyReply
  54. 54
    Timurid says:

    …and, meanwhile, on the Epstein/Acosta front… OOOOOOOF.

    ReplyReply
  55. 55
    Mart says:

    I have a Hurricane Emergency Response document from a factory near New Orleans dated 1984. First paragraph – It is well known that a Hurricane Level 3 or greater will result in widespread and devastating flooding throughout the region. Who coulda predicted? There has been tremendous rain this spring/summer, north of New Orleans. Wind is not the issue.

    Also too, think this tropical storm developed after dropping down from the mainland, not building strength working across the Atlantic Ocean from North Africa. Is this a new thing? Climate change driving? Sadly, I do not see NO being a thing 25-50 years from now.

    ReplyReply
  56. 56
    hedgehog the occasional commenter says:

    @lamh36: Thanks for checking in!

    ReplyReply
  57. 57
    Rob says:

    @Mart: While IANAHE (I am not a hurricane expert), I have paid attention to the formation of most Atlantic hurricanes over the past 25 years or so via the National Hurricane Center website. I think the track of this storm’s proto-nucleus coming south from the mainland into the waters of the Gulf is highly unusual. When the hurricane center first had the proto-nucleus marked over Tennessee a few days ago I about fell out of my chair in amazaement. I really hope that nothing awful happens.

    ReplyReply
  58. 58
    Anotherlurker says:

    @Renie: Hi Renie. There was such confusion withe the assistance programs. They would tell you one thing when reality was very different.
    I went to the SBA for a loan of $5K. The SBA person went full on Aluminum siding salesman on me and talked me into taking $40K.
    NYS had a grant program called NY Rising. When I signed up for the program I specifically asked how much, as a %age of the cost to raise a house, would the grants cover. I was told 75%-100%. When it looked like 30% was the ave. grant, I wanted to drop out of the program. However, I was talked into staying.
    The insurance companies refused to pay for many covered items.
    Confusion and lying was the S.O.P. for those agencies assigned to “help” victims. In reality, their mandate is to protect the banks and the insurance companies. Fuck the victims is their silent motto.
    PTSD took over my life. Severe depression accompanied by 2 suicide attempts. Bad decisions followed bad decisions. I lost my savings and my career.
    My house is up for auction by the bank and my S.S. is being garnished by the SBA.
    My life is destroyed.
    I am now in Ca.. and with the help of a friend and his family, I am trying to re-start my life. Not an easy thing to do, at 67.
    Knowing what I know, my heart bleeds for those who are effected by natural disasters.

    ReplyReply
  59. 59
    Spanky says:

    Heard nothing about this until I opened Balloon Juice (been offline most of the day). First thing I did was go to Windy.com and check the wind/rain forecast. It is eerie how the model (ECMWF) keeps the rain coming down over the Mississippi River valley as it moves north – then makes a right turn and follows the Ohio!

    So it’s going to be rain on top of rain on top of rain that is the danger in NOLA. Cole is right! (Whocouldanode?)

    ReplyReply
  60. 60
    MomSense says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Glad he’s safe, OH. Sending my best to all y’all. Having the kids at home is the best.

    ReplyReply
  61. 61
  62. 62
    Aleta says:

    @Mj_Oregon: On windy I saw some rain accumulation over the next 5 days estimated at 2 and even 3 feet. And the area of estimated 1.5-3 ft accumulation becomes a lot larger beyond 5 days. Is it because they’re forecasting a slow-moving storm (which is also unusual behavior, thanks to climate change).

    ReplyReply
  63. 63
    James OGrady says:

    One caution: some of the more melodramatic (and ignorant) Twitter feeds shows “the modeling” has a ridiculously low (sub 890 mb) megahurricane in the northern Gulf in a few days. This is from the NAM 3k output; that model is absolute garbage with hurricanes and should be ignored totally. Not to say this isn’t a potentially serious flooding situation for NO, but the danger here is from flooding and (possibly) storm surge. The storm itself is forecast to at best (or worst) strengthen to a low end Cat 1.

    ReplyReply
  64. 64
    catatonia says:

    @Rob: I’m a bit skeptical of forecast tracks that swing proto-Barry due west into Texas. That would normally require a very strong western Atlantic ridge that would force the storm west. We don’t have that now and I don’t think one is forecast to develop over the next several days.

    ReplyReply
  65. 65
    catatonia says:

    One caution: some of the more melodramatic Twitter feeds are trumpeting the possibility of a megahurricane (in the vicinity of 890mb or so) in the northern Gulf in a few days. That is from the NAM 3k model output; the NAM is the absolute WORST when it comes to tropical systems and should be totally disregarded. Not at all to downplay the threat, especially to NO, from flooding and even some surge. But the chances of Barry coming ashore at anything higher than a minimum cat 1 are, IMO, pretty damn low

    ReplyReply
  66. 66
    Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho says:

    @Anotherlurker: Holding you in the light. The circumstances you faced suckered. I wish I could offer more. Depression can be a lethal condition and I’m heartened to hear it was not for you.

    There are days when it’s almost too much of an effort to bother. I understand. I’m glad you have friends who are helping. Again, I wish I could offer more.

    ReplyReply
  67. 67
    humboldtblue says:

    NOAA just issued its 2019 flooding forecast and we can expect many more and higher floods in the next decade.

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    Tide gauges of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are measuring rapid increases in coastal flood risk along U.S. coastlines due to relative sea level (RSL) rise. The most noticeable impact of RSL rise is the increasing frequency of high tide flooding (HTF) that in 2018 was 1) disrupting vehicular traffic along the U.S. East Coast due to flooded roadways, 2) inhibiting parking and thus slowing commerce at stores in downtown Annapolis, Maryland, 3) raising groundwater elevations and degrading septic system functionalities in South Florida, and 4) salting farmlands within coastal Delaware and Maryland.

    In 2018, the national annual HTF frequency reached 5 days (median value) and tied the historical record set in 2015. HTF was most prevalent along the Northeast Atlantic Coasts (median of 10 days) and broke records within the Chesapeake Bay (e.g., 22 days in Washington D.C. and 12 days in Annapolis and Baltimore) and along the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Coasts with some major flooding from several hurricanes. In all, 12 individual (out of 98 U.S. tide gauge) locations broke or tied their HTF records. There are now over 40 locations whose HTF decadal trends reveal significant acceleration (nonlinear increase) and 25 locations whose HTF trends are linearly increasing, implying that impacts will soon become chronic without adaptation.

    HTF in 2019 is projected to be higher than normal at about 40 locations along the U.S. West and East Coasts in part due to a minor El Niño that is predicted to persist until early next year. The national median HTF frequency is projected to be more than 100% greater than it typically was in 2000. Regionally in 2019, the Northeast Atlantic is projected to experience a median of 8 days of flooding, which is a 140% increase since 2000. Flooding along the Southeast (5 days—190% increase over 2000), Eastern Gulf (3 days—100% increase since 2000) and Western Gulf (6 days—130% increase since 2000) Coasts continues to rapidly increase as well. The U.S. Southwest and Northwest Pacific Coasts are projected to see a median 2 and 6 days of flooding (80% and 20% increase since 2000), respectively.

    Annual flood records are expected to be broken again next year and for years and decades to come from RSL rise. Projecting out to 2030 and 2050 provides vital information for communities that are already taking adaptation steps to address coastal flooding impacts and those that are beginning to assess future flood risk in their communities. Bounded by a range of RSL rise under a lower and continued-high emission rate, today’s national HTF frequency of 5 days (national median) is likely to increase to about 7–15 days by 2030 and 25–75 days by 2050 (HTF range: low emission–high emission values), with much higher rates in many locations.

    ReplyReply
  68. 68
    Barbara says:

    @Anotherlurker: I am so sorry. Best of luck to you.

    ReplyReply
  69. 69
    Baud says:

    @humboldtblue:

    Annual flood records are expected to be broken again next year and for years and decades to come from RSL rise. 

    But I thought we had the cleanest air and water.

    ReplyReply
  70. 70
    humboldtblue says:

    Only the best water, the smartest air.

    ReplyReply
  71. 71
    MomSense says:

    @Anotherlurker:

    I’m so glad you are here with us after everything you went through and furious about what you had to endure. Sending you big hugs!!

    ReplyReply
  72. 72
    MomSense says:

    @emrys:

    That’s a great idea.

    ReplyReply
  73. 73
    Renie says:

    @Anotherlurker: I’m so sorry to hear what happened to you. I live in the middle part of Long Island so we just had wind damage. But I grew up on the south shore and still have family and friends near the shore and so many lost everything. All the bullshit done to them by the ‘money lenders’ was atrocious. I wish you happiness going ahead.

    ReplyReply
  74. 74
    JGabriel says:

    @cmorenc:

    The system won’t have enough time and open water to develop a devastatingly strong wind-field – probably won’t exceed more than a blustery 45 mph or so at landfall except over a very small area.

    I’d agree, but the graphic John linked at top shows the weekend storm developing into a Cat 1, with >85 MPH winds, at landfall.

    I think we’re all gonna have to get used to seeing weather develop more extremely in less time and space than we’re used to seeing. We seem to have crossed some sort of threshold recently, where we’re going to see climate change impacts really piling up going forward. And, yeah, I have nothing scientific to back up that assertion, but look at the country’s weather disasters over the past year or so. The impacts are increasing, and increasingly obvious.

    HOW-EVER: the biggest danger from landfalling tropical storms / marginal hurricanes is: the prodigious rainfall that accompanies them, especially if the system is slow-moving during/after landfall.

    Yep. The same link above has a chart, near the bottom, predicting >20″ of rain expected for New Orleans.

    And any New Yorker can tell you it was rain and storm surge that had the greatest impact from Hurricane Sandy.

    ReplyReply
  75. 75
    chopper says:

    @catatonia:

    worse than the CMC? which stands for Constantly Making Cyclones. ugh what a shit model.

    ReplyReply
  76. 76
    HinTN says:

    @cmorenc: My friends in Durham had massive damage because rain soaked ground yielded to sustained winds caught by the crowns of trees and down they came.

    ReplyReply
  77. 77
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @JGabriel:

    but the graphic John linked at top shows the weekend storm developing into a Cat 1, with >85 MPH winds, at landfall.

    The National Hurricane center disagrees. but as you yourself note, the problem isn’t going to be wind, but rainfall.

    ReplyReply
  78. 78
    Kathleen says:

    @Anotherlurker: I am so sorry for all you have had to deal with. You sound like a very brave soul who has been tested but has survived. Holding you in light and hope you now have some space and time to catch your breath and appreciate yourself. It sounds like you are loved!

    ReplyReply
  79. 79
    JGabriel says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    The National Hurricane Center has it coming (rainfall) ashore west of NOLA (wind speeds).

    I’m sure you know this already, but for those who don’t: Rain is typically heaviest on the eastern side of a hurricane. So the eyewall landing west of NOLA, is not good news for New Orleans – to put it mildly.

    ReplyReply
  80. 80
    Anotherlurker says:

    @Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: Thanks to all the Jackals here for their support. Even though I am 1500+ miles from Louisiana, news of this storm and other storms, triggers anxiety. PTSD is a hell of a companion.
    I just want to say that this <10,000 blog site is a great source of information, inspiration and humor.
    A lagniappe to my Storm related post. My health suffered as a result of the Superstorm Sandy related scams and B.S. Last May, I manifested a case of Shingles. IMHO, it was purely related to the stress of Sandy "recovery". Shingles has visited me 3 times in the last year. Each case was, as my Doc. described, very severe. Shingles is no joke. It is the sickest I've ever been. I'm still dealing with the illness with a condition known as Posttherpetic Neuralga. Look it up and GET YOUR SHINGLES VACCINE.

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  81. 81
    Kattails says:

    John McPhee’s essay on why the Atchafalaya River wants really really badly to capture the Mississippi and take it about a thousand miles in a different direction, and how the Corps of Engineers is working really really hard to keep that from happening. This essay became part of his book “The Control of Nature”; one of my favorite images was just how high the levees are at this point– that if ships could cross them they might float above the city like zeppelins. Can’t find my original copy, please don’t tell me I donated it in a moment of benevolent insanity…
    So yes, you do not need a hurricane. At all. The volume of water moving past any given point downstream in flood stage is staggering.

    ReplyReply
  82. 82
    JGabriel says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    The National Hurricane center disagrees. but as you yourself note, the problem isn’t going to be wind, but rainfall.

    Hmm, I should have verified that info with the NHC first – I usually do. Too many sites (*cough*Accuweather*cough*) tend to over-predict precipitation totals to increase hype and ratings.

    Anyway, thanks for the link and the correction.

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  83. 83
    Anotherlurker says:

    @Renie: @Renie: Thanks for you support, my fellow L.I.er. I really wish I had been able to continue living on my hill, in Oyster Bay, my old hometown. I would have been way above the flooding. However, I couldn’t afford it.

    ReplyReply
  84. 84
    Steeplejack says:

    @AnotherBruce:

    Fat means flavor!

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  85. 85
    daveNYC says:

    Last year had a number of storms that strengthened both rapidly and unexpectedly. Hopefully the models are correct, but I’d still be twitchy.

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  86. 86
    TenguPhule says:

    Trump’s company cancels strip-club-sponsored golf tournament at his Florida resort

    Comedy Writers in mourning.

    ReplyReply
  87. 87
    Steeplejack says:

    @Barbara:

    Huh. Jacy’s Etsy shop not found. Hope she’s okay.

    ReplyReply
  88. 88
    Kattails says:


    John McPhee’s essay
    on why the Atchafalaya River really really wants to capture the entire Mississippi and send it all several hundred miles southwest. The essay became part of his book “The Control of Nature”. A fascinating read. The thing to consider is that in flood stage, at the point where the levee is interrupted by a lock to lower the ships (33 feet vertically), the river is moving 2 million cubic feet of water a second, or 65 kilotons. One of my takeaway images was that the levees are so high at New Orleans that if ships could breach them and somehow become airborne, they would float above the city like zeppelins. Worth a read.

    ReplyReply
  89. 89
    ChuckInAustin says:

    I have a kid at Tulane right now. This is the 4th hurricane / storm in 2 1/2 years, it doesn’t get any easier. There’s a foot of water in the street and the car is almost flooded. (last I heard.)
    gonna be a stressful week.

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  90. 90
    Mike in NC says:

    @TenguPhule: We could say they were shamed into doing this but none of that bunch feels human emotions.

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  91. 91
    Steeplejack says:

    @Steeplejack:

    Alchemy Book Covers still active, apparently.

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  92. 92
    Kattails says:

    Huh? why did my little link go all blue? I hit link and typed in the correct information and then my comment on it but it’s gone all kind of weird sorry. Oh, I refreshed and it wasn’t there so I re-did it but it really is there and in correct format. (Patience grasshopper.) Apologies for ineptitude.

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  93. 93
    Patricia Kayden says:

    Please don’t let the storm expected to hit New Orleans be as bad as Hurricane Katrina. Trump would be much worse than Bush in handling the repercussions from such a storm. He’d throw paper towels at them. Sigh.

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  94. 94
    chris says:

    @Steeplejack: Link goes to Balloon Juice “not found.”

    ETA: https://www.alchemybookcovers.com/lets_talk

    ReplyReply
  95. 95
    Raven says:

    13 years ago our friends who have a house in the quarter were all worried about the hurricane. I made fun of them. Never again. I have booked a rig fishing trip out of Venice in late September so it would be ok with me to get this out of the way.

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  96. 96
    chris says:

    @Kattails: Add link, type text and then hit /link button to close the link.

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  97. 97
    Steeplejack says:

    @p.a.:

    Asshole is correct.

    ReplyReply
  98. 98

    @Kattails: Fixed it for you.

    ReplyReply
  99. 99
    Steeplejack says:

    @Shana:

    OT OT, just wanted to thank you for the recommendation of the barbecue place in Vienna (?). Can’t remember the name now, but it’s in my GPS for the next time I’m up there.

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  100. 100
    Steeplejack says:

    @TomatoQueen:

    I have a crush on Lesli Foster. My sordid little secret.

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  101. 101
    Shana says:

    @Steeplejack: You’re welcome. I have no recollection of what place that could have been other than Famous Dave’s. What did I recommend?

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  102. 102
    charon says:

    Jeff Masters has a 3-part series at Cat 6 on the Mississippi and the Atchafalya.

    Part 1 here: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Americas-Achilles-Heel-Mississippi-Rivers-Old-River-Control-Structure .

    Posts were May 10, 13, 14

    There is also more recent stuff at Cat 6 relevent to this.

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  103. 103
    Steve in the ATL says:

    Is New Orleans going to be fixed by October? I’m speaking at a conference there then and would prefer to do it indoors.

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  104. 104
    Steeplejack says:

    @Kattails:

    I hit link and typed in the correct information and then my comment on it [. . .].

    When you do it that way, you have to close the link by mashing the “link” button again when you’re done with your comment (the part you want to be in the hyperlink). It will look like “/link” to show it hasn’t been closed.

    I think maybe a front-pager fixed it for you.

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  105. 105
    raven says:

    @Steve in the ATL: Better be, my retirement tuna trip is right after the Notre Dame game!

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  106. 106
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @Raven: Pre-Katrina I used to go there pretty regularly. Guy we worked with had a house in Algiers – took on water to within a foot of the second-floor ceiling.

    Kind of lost touch after that, what with him going to prison for fraud and stuff…

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  107. 107
    Steeplejack says:

    @Shana:

    It wasn’t Famous Dave’s!

    . . . Got out the GPS. Oh, it was a deli—Chutzpah in Fairfax.

    ReplyReply
  108. 108
    Isua says:

    @anotherlurker: Hello and best wishes from another daughter of Oyster Bay. I love that town. I miss taking the dog to Sagamore Hill to wander around. Sending you good vibes!

    ReplyReply
  109. 109
    Raven says:

    @Gin & Tonic: I’ve got an old buddy who plays music and is an offshore diver. He likes it but I wouldn’t want to live there.

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  110. 110
    catclub says:

    @Timurid: The usual model of a plea agreement is that the plea allows for further prosecutions.
    In this case it was the opposite – all the rich men that were involved got immunity when Epstein pled to his charge.

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  111. 111
    catclub says:

    @charon:

    Jeff Masters has a 3-part series at Cat 6 on the Mississippi and the Atchafalya.

    I think the story is that the Mississippi will at some point catastrophically move over to be the BIG Atchafalaya.

    ReplyReply
  112. 112
    JoeyJoeJoe says:

    @Renie: Another LIer here. The flooding stopped at the edge of my driveway, somehow didn’t get into the basement even though it had flooded in the past, like 2005. People south of me lost a lot of stuff

    ReplyReply
  113. 113
    J R in WV says:

    @catclub:

    We drove on I-10 west from NOLA a couple of times, and once we got off the thruway at the Atchafalaya exit and drove up and down the ‘river’ — the road was on the low levee that keep the river in its banks most of the time.

    For miles I-10 runs on an elevated highway, a bridge that runs for miles up above the swamp that is the Atchafalaya basin. I’ve got McPhee’s books, most all of them, including his description of standing on the dam that keeps the Mississippi river out of the Atchafalaya basin. Vibrating, trembling under his feet as thousands of cubic yards of water pound on the structures that throw the Mississippi back east into its traditional course down to NOLA.

    I would like to see those Army Corps structures before the forces of nature crush them as the river tends back west. We also rode across the Mississippi on a ferry after driving down the river from Memphis on local black top roads. Quite a voyage… you could see the new structures being built for the huge bridge over the Queen River.

    ReplyReply
  114. 114
    satby says:

    @Anotherlurker: adding my good wishes and admiration for how you’ve persevered in the face of so many difficulties. One day at a time, just keep that in mind when the future seems so overwhelming. Big virtual hugs.

    ReplyReply
  115. 115
    Rob says:

    @catatonia: If I remember correctly it was just one computer model (UKMet?) that swung Barry into Texas. Modeling may have changed since I saw/glanced at the National Hurricane Center 5 pm (?) discussion.
    eta: I haven’t seen any NHC stuff since then nor any Category 6 material at all.

    ReplyReply
  116. 116
    Anotherlurker says:

    @Isua: Cool! I knew there had to be some Oyster Bay folks here, on this nearly top 10,000 blog. My Aunt and Uncle worked at Sagamore Hill before the National Parks Service took it over. I have many good memories of that place.
    I also have good memories of hanging in Theodore Roosevelt Park. Snouder’s soda fountain, The Old Homestead and other hangouts. It was a good place to grow up.

    ReplyReply
  117. 117
    Anotherlurker says:

    @satby: Thanks Satby. Big hugs back to you! xo!

    ReplyReply
  118. 118
    AnotherBruce says:

    @humboldtblue: For me, I’m just curious when the rising waters will engulf Mar-A-Lago.

    ReplyReply
  119. 119
    TomatoQueen says:

    @Steeplejack: Lesli’s a delight. Not quite Sue Simmons, but then nobody is.

    ReplyReply
  120. 120
    AnotherBruce says:

    @Steeplejack: Trump only has flab. That is toxic stuff.

    ReplyReply
  121. 121
    TomatoQueen says:

    And now I’m seriously worried about Jacy and am asking for a welfare check, as I believe it’s called. How do jackals do such a thing?

    ReplyReply
  122. 122
    Kattails says:

    @chris: @Cheryl Rofer: @Steeplejack: Late to get back to the thread, but thanks to all for catching it, note duly made on proper procedure.

    ReplyReply
  123. 123
    Steeplejack says:

    @TomatoQueen:

    I sent her an email at the address on her site, asking her to check in, if she feels like it. More than that would border on stalking, I think.

    ReplyReply
  124. 124
    Kineslaw says:

    We’re taking in some family evacuating NOLA. They live close to one of the red dots that indicates a place the levee might be overtopped. Just this year we’ve had family in three states be within miles of tornadoes and now we get some temporary climate change refugee houseguests. The new normal is going to require a lot of pulling together.

    ReplyReply
  125. 125
    Aleta says:

    Windy from about 10 minutes ago, is showing this crazy intense thunderstorm offshore, left of the center. One thing I don’t understand: the thunderstorm shows up on the radar setting (a big wildlooking purple mass), but there are no other radar readings showing anywhere around there, just the one storm. Why no other radar.

    Right now Saturday shows the storm coming ashore around 1 pm and high tide not til 5 pm. But I think that’s still pretty high.

    ReplyReply
  126. 126
    Another Scott says:

    The rain totals seem to be moving east

    :-(

    Hang in there, and be safe, everyone.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  127. 127
    TomatoQueen says:

    @Steeplejack: Thanks. Agree about the stalking overtone but the sequence of events is just disturbing. I’ll try to let it go.

    ReplyReply

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